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Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Reclamation Projects

December 11, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Allen. (Gregory Shamus/Getty)

As we enter the Winter Meetings, the Yankees are still searching for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson. I previously wrote about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Jeurys Familia, and Adam Ottavino. Today I’m going to shift gears a bit, and focus on pitchers that had substandard years without the benefit – if you can call it that – of an injury explanation.

Cody Allen

2018 Stats – 67.0 IP, 27.7 K%, 11.4 BB%, 30.0 GB%, 4.70 ERA, 4.56 FIP

Allen was somewhat quietly an excellent reliever for five straight years, pitching to a 2.59 ERA (163 ERA+) along with 32.4% strikeouts and 8.8% walks in 344.2 IP between 2013 and 2017. He served as Cleveland’s closer for four of those seasons, too, holding onto the role even as Andrew Miller came into the fold. In that time, Allen was the 9th most valuable reliever in the game by fWAR, and 12th by WPA. He may not have had the flash or name value of the pitchers around him, but he was steadily great, and occasionally brilliant.

And then, in his age-29 season, he had the worst year of his career. His strikeout and walk rates were his worst since his 29.0 IP debut in 2012, and his GB%, ERA, and FIP were the worst of his career. Allen had quietly been susceptible to the longball for a couple of years, but it got out of hand in 2018 as his HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.48. His 12.8% HR/FB wasn’t too out of hand, but allowing 50.6% of all batted balls to be put into the air doesn’t jibe too well with that.

So what the heck happened? His fastball and curveball velocity, which had been steadily slipping since 2015, dropped by about half a tick, which may well have played a part:

The spin on both of his offerings dropped from 2017 to 2018, as well. Allen’s fastball checked-in at 2506 RPM in 2017, and 2445 RPM in 2018; for his curveball, those numbers were 2617 and 2575. For a pitcher who relies on two pitches, it’s easy to imagine that losing a bit of heat and a bit of spin could have horrendous results – and that manifested last year, as Allen allowed a much higher exit velocity (up 4.1 MPH) and launch angle (up 1.6 degrees) in 2018.

Are there any positives to be gleaned from his 2018, though? No; not really, at least. His numbers were bad in every month but April, and he was shelled in both of his playoff outings against the Astros (54.00 ERA – not a typo – in 1 IP). Unless Allen was hurt at the end of April and some nagging injury kept him down for the rest of the year, this has all of the makings of a straight-up bad year for the now 30-year-old. And it couldn’t have been more poorly-timed for him.

MLBTR (two years, $16 MM) and FanGraphs (two years, $18 MM) basically agree on the sort of contract Allen will sign this off-season. Cleveland didn’t extend the QO, so there’s no additional cost beyond the dollars and cents.

Allen is an interesting case, given that he was so good for so long, which isn’t terribly common for relievers. His whole career has been in the AL, and he was incredibly effective in the playoffs prior to this year, too. If he had hit the free agent market after 2017, Allen may well be looking at a huge payday. As it stands, he might have to settle for something of a pillow contract. I would be hesitant to give him two years, as relievers do have a nasty tendency to abruptly fall apart, but I would be fine with a one-year deal.

Greg Holland

(Getty)

2018 Stats – 46.1 IP, 22.2 K%, 15.1 BB%, 40.0 GB%, 4.66 ERA, 3.83 FIP

Holland was arguably the best reliever in baseball from 2011 through 2014, pitching to a 1.86 ERA (220 ERA+) in 256.1 IP in the regular season, and a ludicrous 0.82 ERA in 11 postseason innings. He was a mere mortal in 2015, however, with a 3.83 ERA (110 ERA+); and his season ended on September 22 of that year, when the team announced he needed Tommy John Surgery. He missed all of 2016, and was a man without a team for that entire year.

In January of 2017, Holland was healthy and ready to go, and he signed a one-year deal with the Rockies. It was a strange choice for a pitcher hoping to rebuild his value, but he did quite well, pitching to a 3.61 ERA (140 ERA+) in 57.1 IP, with a strong 29.8 K%. The walks were high (11.1%), but, for a guy in a bad pitching environment with a year’s worth of rust, that was more than forgivable. Holland nevertheless had to settle for another one-year deal for the 2018 season. This time, the Cardinals came calling – but not until March 31. What a weird off-season 2017-18 was. But I digress.

As you can see from the numbers above, Holland was not good on the whole of 2018. However, it was a tale of two seasons. You see, Holland was released by the Cardinals on August 1, and was scooped up by the Nationals within the week. His splits:

  • Cardinals – 25.0 IP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 35.6 GB%, 7.92 ERA, 4.56 FIP
  • Nationals – 21.1 IP, 31.3 K%, 12.5 BB%, 48.8 GB%, 0.84 ERA, 2.97 FIP

Starting his season so late may well have played a role in Holland’s pre-trade struggles, but did anything else change? He did spend a bit over three weeks on the DL with a hip impingement in late-May and early-June – an injury which had bothered him for a couple of weeks prior – which explains a bit. However, everything else is relatively consistent from month to month; his pitch distribution, his velocity, his spin rate, etc. Could it have been a matter of rust and a nagging injury? That seems reasonable, right?

Holland, who turned 33 a few weeks ago, has seen his velocity dip over time, though. And he’s at an age where we shouldn’t expect that to rebound.

His spin rates actually improved across the board last year, relative to 2017, so there’s still a bit of upside in his offerings. At the very least, this is not a matter of his pitches slipping across the board as we saw with Allen.

Neither MLBTR nor FanGraphs have Holland among their top-fifty free agents, so there’s no contract prediction to be had. However, given his back-to-back one-year deals, his career-worst 2018, and his age, it stands to reason that he could be had on a one-year deal.

And, when it comes to a one-year deal, I’d be all-in on Holland. I wouldn’t expect his 2011-2014 greatness, nor would I count on him pitching as well as he did for the Nationals last year – but there’s enough there to suggest that he’s not quite done, and that his Cardinals struggles are not the new normal.

Ryan Madson

(Stacy Revere/Getty)

2018 Stats – 52.2 IP, 23.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 42.6 GB%, 5.47 ERA, 3.98 FIP

Why is a 38-year-old reliever that had a 5.47 ERA last year on this list? There are reclamation projects, and there are lost causes, right? Maybe. Or maybe there’s a bit more to Madson’s 2018 season than meets the eye.

In late October, the Washington Post reported that Madson had been dealing with low-back pain that radiated down his front leg throughout the season, and didn’t have it straightened-out until August, when he made adjustments to his delivery. And then the Dodgers overhauled his approach after acquiring him in an August deal from the Nationals, and it paid dividends.

Sure, Madson’s 6.48 ERA with the Dodgers looks ugly; but he had a 36.1 K% and a 2.8 BB%, and was largely done in by a ridiculous .429 BABIP. His 1.96 FIP in Dodger Blue tells a better story of how he was in those stretch-run appearances. The Dodgers leaned on Madson heavily in the playoffs, calling upon him 11 times, and he responded admirably, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 IP.

The Dodgers overhaul of Madson’s approach manifested in his pitch selection:

He basically shelved his four-seamer, which was his most hittable offering, and the whiffs returned. That’s the sort of thing that the Yankees coaching staff is all about – and Madson’s already had some success doing it. And, despite his age, velocity isn’t an issue:

As was the case with Holland, there aren’t many contract estimates out there for Madson. And why would there be? He’s a 38-year-old reliever, after all. But, given his apparent health, new approach, and still-strong velocity, he might just be a bargain on a one-year deal. And I would be happy to see that deal be with the Yankees … as long as he’s not the premier reliever signed this off-season.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Cody Allen, Greg Holland, Ryan Madson, Scouting The Market

The Reds reportedly want to trade Scooter Gennett and he’s a great fit for the Yankees

December 11, 2018 by Mike

(Victor Decolongon/Getty)

In addition to pitching help, both another starter and relievers (plural), the Yankees also must find a Didi Gregorius replacement this offseason. Gregorius will miss an unknown length of time next year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and the Yankees need someone to fill in. They can pursue either a shortstop or a second baseman thank to Gleyber Torres and his versatility.

Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett is arguably the best second baseman on the trade market, and, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), Cincinnati would like to trade him. Gennett will be a free agent next offseason and GM Dick Williams recently told Mark Sheldon that the two sides are not close to a contract extension. The Reds aren’t close to an extension with anyone, Gennett or otherwise.

“I wouldn’t expect it before the calendar turns (to 2019). There’s too much up in the air in terms of roster construction going forward. I don’t think you’ll see us working on any extensions for anybody. That’s not just Scooter specific,” said Williams to Sheldon. “… In the sense that we always remain open to good deals, if we find one that we really like. Flexibility is important to us. We will be careful about a lot of extensions.”

For what it’s worth, Sheldon says the Reds are “not actively looking to trade” Gennett, though that doesn’t mean Rosenthal’s report is wrong and it doesn’t mean Sheldon’s report is wrong either. Both could be correct. The Reds could want to move Gennett without actively shopping him. He’s really good! Williams probably gets phone calls about Gennett all the time and doesn’t need to shop him. Interested teams come to him.

Earlier today the Yankees were connected to Gennett for the first time though I imagine they checked in long ago. Brian Cashman checks in on everyone. We know the Yankees and Reds have discussed Sonny Gray this offseason — the Yankees reportedly asked for top prospect Taylor Trammell, which was a nice try — and I’d be willing to bet Gennett’s name came up at some point. Not necessarily in a Gray-for-Gennett proposal. Just in general.

Anyway, with Gennett reportedly on the market — it makes sense that he would be if the two sides are not close to a contract extension — the Yankees should pursue him aggressively. A lot of contenders need second base help (Angels, Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies) and once free agents start coming off the board, the Gennett bidding war could heat up, and that’s a bad thing for New York. A few more thoughts on this.

1. Gennett fits the lineup perfectly. The Yankees could use another left-handed hitter to balance out their righty heavy lineup, but, as far as I’m concerned, hitter quality should trump hitter handedness. I will happy take another quality right-handed hitter over a mediocre left-handed hitter who is in the lineup simply to provide balance.

Gennett is the best of both worlds. He’s a quality hitter and he’s a left-handed hitter. Offensively, Gennett posted near identical 2017 and 2018 seasons, and the end result was a .303/.351/.508 (124 wRC+) batting line with 50 homers in 1,135 plate appearances. A few more walks (6.3%) would be nice, but it’s hard to complain about that production. Gennett doesn’t strike out excessively (21.1%) and check out his spray chart:

Line drives to all fields with power to the pull side, something that is handsomely rewarded at Yankee Stadium. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is a pretty good place to hit. It’s not Yankee Stadium though. Add in a playable .277/.317/.426 (96 wRC+) batting line against lefties and you’ve got a rock solid left-handed hitter who hits for average and hits for power, and would help balance the lineup. An ideal offensive pickup, really.

2. Gennett does offer some versatility. Although he is a natural second baseman, Gennett has moved around the field a little bit, most notably spending some time at third base and in the two corner outfield spots since joining the Reds. That would come in handy once Gregorius returns, though I am firmly in the “worry about that when the time comes” camp with Gregorius. Worry how the pieces fit once Sir Didi is healthy.

I think the Yankees should prioritize defense when looking for a Gregorius replacement. The numbers say Gennett is average to a tick below at second base and, well, that wouldn’t fit the whole “prioritize defense” idea, now would it? Given his bat though, I think you can overlook the less than stellar glovework, at least to some degree. I wouldn’t accept Miguel Andujar level defense at second base to get Gennett’s bat. But league average defense? That’ll do.

I should mention at some point that Gennett is only 28. He turns 29 in May. This isn’t a 31 or 32-year-old player we’re talking about here, someone at increased risk of age-related decline at the plate and in the field. Gennett is right smack in what should be the prime of his career and expecting another peak year from him in 2019 (say average-ish defense with a 120 wRC+ or thereabouts) doesn’t strike me as unreasonable at all.

3. The Yankees might recoup a draft pick after the season. Gennett will become a free agent next offseason and, if he repeats his 2017-18 efforts in 2019, he would at worst be a serious qualifying offer candidate. Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Jed Lowrie will shed some light on this. Their contracts this winter will help set Gennett’s market next offseason.

The perfect world scenario has the Yankees trading for Gennett, getting a great season from him, then making him the qualifying offer and scoring a draft pick to help replenish the farm system. Chances are that won’t happen though. There’s so much that can go wrong between now and then. Consider the free agent compensation rules:

  • Gennett signs a contract worth $50M+: Yankees get a supplemental first round pick.
  • Gennett signs a contract worth less than $50M: Yankees get a supplemental second round pick.
  • Yankees pay luxury tax in 2019: Yankees get a supplemental fourth round pick no matter what.

There’s also the possibility Gennett accepts the qualifying offer. Neil Walker hit .282/.347/.476 (124 wRC+) with 23 homers during his age 30 season with the Mets in 2016 and he accepted the $17.2M qualifying offer. Given the last two years, 2019 Scooter Gennett could put up very similar numbers to 2016 Neil Walker at a similar age, and next winter the qualifying offer might be over $19M. Accepting it is a very real possibility.

Point is, there is a scenario in which the Yankees recoup a high draft pick when Gennett become a free agent next winter. I think the chances of that are quite small, but it is possible, and it should factor into the trade calculus. Ultimately, the Yankees are in win now mode, and I think the priority has to be what Gennett can do for them on the field. If they get a draft pick after the season, great. If not, so be it.

(Joe Robbins/Getty)

4. The Reds have made some very bad decisions lately. Most notably, the Reds got nothing for Zack Cozart. The guy hit .297/.385/.548 (140 wRC+) with 24 homers and Gold Glove defense in 2017 and the 94-loss Reds did not cash him in as a trade chip. They kept him all year, didn’t make him the qualifying offer after the season, and watched Cozart walk away as a free agent for zero return. Brutal. Just brutal.

Also, the Reds rejected trade overtures for the fun but ultimately not very valuable Billy Hamilton the last few years, only to non-tender him last week. They also pulled Matt Harvey back on trade waivers (the Brewers claimed him) in August and didn’t trade him. Harvey’s a free agent now. Cozart is the most egregious mistake here but these are three players who generated trade interest who the Reds instead let go for nothing. Goodness.

On one hand, I’d like to think the Reds learned from those mistakes and are determined not to repeat them with Gennett. On the other hand, the Hamilton non-tender was literally eleven days ago, so maybe not. Cincinnati’s front office doesn’t really seem to have its act together. Perhaps they don’t understand Gennett’s true value and thus sell him short. It would be pretty rad if the the Yankees can benefit from one of those very bad Reds decisions.

* * *

There is at least one “what about Sonny Gray for Scooter Gennett?” question in the mailbag inbox each week and no. Just no. Gennett is actually good. Gray was good once upon a time but not this past season. Also, Gennett is actually good. Did I mention that part? The Reds have made some bad moves lately but even they have to realize trading one year of their All-Star second baseman for one year of a reclamation project starter is a bad idea. If they’re open to it, the Yankees should do it and yell “no trade backsies” as quickly as possible.

That doesn’t mean Gray can’t be part of a Gennett trade package, however. Last offseason’s Andrew McCutchen trade seems like decent enough framework for a Gennett trade. McCutchen certainly had a superior track record to Gennett, but, at the time of the trade, he was essentially a +3 WAR player with one year and $14.75M on his contract. Gennett is a +3 WAR player now who MLBTR projects to make $10.7M in his final year of team control. Not a perfect match but I think we’re in the ballpark.

The Giants gave up a big league reliever (Kyle Crick) and a non-top 100 prospect (Bryan Reynolds) to get McCutchen. Would Gray and a non-top 100 prospect (Domingo Acevedo? Mike King? Clarke Schmidt?) be enough to get Gennett? Maybe. The difference here is McCutchen’s market was fairly limited. A lot of teams — a lot of contenders — could be after Gennett. No matter the cost, it’s worth finding out. Realistically, Gennett may be the best option to replace Gregorius aside from signing Manny Machado.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Cincinnati Reds, Scooter Gennett

Yankees, Mets, Marlins reportedly talking three-team trade involving Syndergaard, Realmuto

December 11, 2018 by Mike

Bring to me. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

Here’s a whopper of a late night rumor from the Winter Meetings. According to multiple reports, the Yankees are discussing a three-team trade with the Mets and Marlins that would send J.T. Realmuto to Flushing and bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx. The Yankees would presumably send prospects to the Marlins (and probably the Mets too?).

A week or two ago Brian Cashman categorically denied a rumor that he’d made an offer for Realmuto, though the Yankees were connected to the Marlins backstop, and this might explain why. They don’t want Realmuto for themselves — that Gary Sanchez guy is pretty cool — they want to flip him to another team for pitching. Huh. Here’s what we know:

  • The Mets are exploring multiple scenarios to land Realmuto and a three-team trade with the Yankees is “not among the strongest.” [Joel Sherman]
  • The Yankees have interest in Mets starters other than Syndergaard and are “pushing hard” to get a deal done tonight, but nothing is imminent. [Andy Martino & Sherman]
  • It’s still unclear what the Marlins would get in the trade. [Craig Mish]

Keep in mind Marlins director of player development Gary Denbo was the Yankees’ farm system head from 2014-17 and he is still familiar with the system despite being away from the team for a year now. That doesn’t necessarily make a trade more likely, of course. He knows the good and the bad, and the bad might outnumber the good at this point.

Also keep in mind Mets owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon would presumably have to sign off on any trade with the Yankees. I can’t imagine rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen has the autonomy to do that on his own. There is a very real inferiority complex in place here and a trade that sends Syndergaard — or even Zack Wheeler or Steven Matz — to the Yankees might be too much for the Wilpons to stomach.

The Yankees don’t have nearly as many prospects to trade as they did a few months ago and I’m not sure they could get this trade done without giving up anyone from their MLB roster, specifically Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar. I love Andujar but Gleyber’s the keeper. I guess we’ll see. I’m not sure the Yankees want to subtract much from their MLB roster at this point (other than Sonny Gray).

Even after the James Paxton trade, the Yankees need another starter, preferably a very good one, and they missed out on Patrick Corbin. Syndergaard would be a monumental addition — Wheeler and Matz would be lesser upgrades but upgrades nonetheless — who might swing the balance of power in the AL East. If the Yankees can get him without sacrificing Torres or Andujar, it would be a massive win.

As always, I’m going to need to see the Wilpons sign off on a big Yankees-Mets trade to believe it. They might be the biggest obstacle here, not the general managers agreeing to terms. The Yankees and Mets haven’t made a player-for-player trade since the Mike Stanton-Felix Heredia swap in 2004.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Noah Syndergaard

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Monday

December 10, 2018 by Mike

The four busiest days of the offseason have arrived. Well, the three busiest days, really, because everyone heads home Thursday morning after the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 Winter Meetings begin today at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, and, as always, there will be a ton of trades, free agent signings, and rumors these next few days. Lots of rumors. Lots and lots of rumors.

The Yankees have already had a fairly active offseason. They traded for James Paxton and re-signed both Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, most notably, and they’ve also brought in some depth options like Hanser Alberto, Tim Locastro, and Parker Bridwell. The Yankees still need another starter though, plus a Didi Gregorius middle infield replacement and bullpen help. Brian Cashman’s work is far from done this offseason.

“Obviously, we have a number of things to accomplish that I consider heavy lifting. We need to fill our club out. Usually most things get concluded by the end of the Winter Meetings based on the last two years,” said Cashman to George King recently. “Things have dragged out longer, but for the most part, now momentum will kick in for everybody — players, agents and clubs. Hopefully we will be in position to improve ourselves, but part of this is having patience. We don’t want to make a mistake and rush this process. If it takes longer, it takes longer. Optimally, you would like to get something done between now and the conclusion of Vegas.”

The last time the Winter Meetings were held in Las Vegas the Yankees left town with a newly signed CC Sabathia and momentum toward a deal with A.J. Burnett and having started discussions about a deal with Mark Teixeira. I can’t say I expect the Yankees to be that active again this year — that was one of the largest free agent spending sprees in baseball history — but I do expect them to be busy this week. There’s still a lot of needs that have to be addressed.

As we do every year, we’ll keep you updated on the latest Yankees-related rumors in this one handy post throughout the day. The Winter Meetings are in the Pacific Time Zone this year, so we East Coasters may have to wait a little longer than usual each morning for everyone in Las Vegas to wake up and start cranking out rumors. Anyway, make sure you check back through the day for updates. Here’s the latest (all timestamps Eastern Time):

  • 5:59pm: The Yankees scouted Yusei Kikuchi “extensively” this past season and Brian Cashman said he’s been in touch with agent Scott Boras about the left-hander. Here’s everything you need to know about Kikuchi. His 30-day negotiating period closes Thursday, January 3rd. [Joel Sherman]
  • 5:54pm: Brian Cashman more or less shot down speculation the Yankees could sign Bryce Harper to play first base. “The Harper stuff, I’m surprised you are still asking,” he said. Cashman did admit he’s “had several conversations” with Manny Machado‘s agent, though not in Las Vegas at the Winter Meetings. [Bryan Hoch, Joel Sherman]
  • 4:35pm: The Yankees have considered Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed as they look for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They’ve had interest in him before. Ahmed is a fantastic defender and he discovered some power this year, but he’s still a below-average hitter. The D’Backs aren’t expected to part with Ahmed for anything less than a big overpay, so forget that. [Brendan Kuty]
  • 2:06pm: The Yankees are aiming high in Sonny Gray trade talks and asked the Reds about top prospect Taylor Trammell. MLB.com ranks Trammell as the 17th best prospect in baseball. Hey, you’ll never got Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask. [Joel Sherman]
  • 12:38pm: Unlike Harper, Manny Machado will travel to meet with teams in their cities. That all but guarantees he will not sign during the Winter Meetings this week. I could see Machado’s and Harper’s free agencies dragging out into January. [Bob Nightengale]
  • 12:17pm: The Yankees and Padres remain in contact about Sonny Gray. San Diego doesn’t have much MLB talent to offer at this point — Matt Strahm would be nice, though I’d bet against it — so, if a trade does happen, it figures to be Gray for prospects. [Jon Morosi]
  • 11:52am: “Industry buzz” says the Yankees want to limit a potential J.A. Happ contract to two years. He’s shopping around for a three-year deal this offseason though. Always remember to take these secondhand “industry buzz” rumors with a grain of salt. [George King]
  • 11:30am: The Yankees will meet face-to-face with Bryce Harper at some point this week. Harper lives in Las Vegas, which is convenient. We haven’t heard the Yankees connected to Harper much this offseason and I suppose it’s possible this week’s meeting is just due diligence since everyone will be in the same place at the same time. [Jeff Passan]
  • 11:30am: In addition to Harper, the Yankees will also meet with Manny Machado at some point. I’m not sure if it’ll be during the Winter Meetings or later. They will not bid $300M to get him, however. If that’s true, the Yankees almost certainly won’t get Machado then. Either he’d have to take a deep discount or his market would have to collapse for that work. [Jon Heyman]
  • 11:30am: The Yankees have interest in free agent multi-position players Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison. Both would fit as a Gregorius replacement though one (Gonzalez) is much more desirable than the other (Harrison) in my opinion. [Jon Heyman]

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: 2018 Winter Meetings, Bryce Harper, J.A. Happ, Josh Harrison, Manny Machado, Marwin Gonzalez, Yusei Kikuchi

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Familia and Ottavino

December 10, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Familia. (Jason O. Watson/Getty)

The Yankees are looking for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson, and the market it flush with potentially appealing options. I recently wrote about Kelvin Herrera and Andrew Miller, both of whom are coming off of injury-abbreviated campaigns; today I’m going to discuss a couple of relievers coming off of more productive seasons in Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino.

Jeurys Familia

2018 Stats – 3.13 ERA, 27.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 46.3 GB%, 3.13 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Familia spent the first six and a half years of his big-league career as a Met, serving as the team’s closer from 2015 through the end of his New York tenure; he was dealt to the A’s at this past trade deadline, where he served as a high-leverage fireman instead of a traditional closer. And he excelled in both roles, maintaining above-average strikeout and groundball rates, and an average walk rate. None of his peripherals are particularly jaw-dropping, but there isn’t a glaring weakness in his profile, either.

The 29-year-old is essentially a sinker/slider pitcher, with those offerings representing around 80% of his overall pitches. He’ll also mix in a four-seamer and the occasional splitter (which is devastating, but has never represented more than 8% of his pitches in a year), depending on the handedness of the batter and what he’s feeling. And Familia throws everything hard:

Familia’s velocity has remained fairly steady from year-to-year. He’s lost about 1 MPH from his peak fastball velocity – but it was over the course of four years, so it’s not a terribly worrisome sign. And his sinker and slider are his go-to offerings anyway, and both of those have actually ticked up. We know that velocity can disappear rather suddenly, but there aren’t really any warning signs thus far.

It is worth noting that Familia has dealt with two injuries in his career, both of which required surgery. The first was a bone spur removed from his right elbow back in 2013, which kept him out for a few months. And the second was surgery to remove an arterial blood clot from his right shoulder in 2017, which sidelined him from mid-May through the end of August. Neither is necessarily predictive of future injury, but having surgery on your throwing elbow and throwing shoulder cannot be overlooked.

And, being as diplomatic as possible, there are potential character issues off the field, as well. Familia was suspended for the first 15 games of the 2017 season due to domestic violence accusations, and had to undergo at least twelve 90-minute counseling sessions. I do not want to editorialize something of this nature, so I will leave it at that.

So what will Familia cost? MLBTR predicts a 3-year, $33 MM deal, and FanGraphs similarly went with 3-years, $30 MM. Having been dealt mid-season, there are no draft pick considerations. He has that closer shine, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him end up with a deal in that range.

At that sort of price, I don’t think that Familia is a great fit for the Yankees. I’m all for the team spending big this off-season to capitalize on their window, but I wouldn’t get in a bidding war for someone that another team views as a closer. The Yankees are ostensibly looking for their third and fourth relievers, behind Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, which is somewhere between a luxury and a necessity; I see it as enough of the former that I wouldn’t go beyond two years for Familia. And his off the field issues make me a bit hesitant, as well.

Adam Ottavino

(Chris Coduto/Getty)

2018 Stats – 77.2 IP, 36.3 K%, 11.7 BB%, 43.0 GB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP

At first blush, those are some straight-up droolworthy numbers. A strikeout rate 14 full percentage points above league-average? A 2.43 ERA and 2.74 FIP in Coors?! That’s kind of bonkers, isn’t it? Even with the walks, you cannot help but be impressed with Ottavino.

A bit more digging, however, doesn’t leave you as enthusiastic about his merits. Here’s his 2017 line – 53.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 16.1 BB%, 37.2 GB%, 5.06 ERA, 5.16 FIP. That’s just about as bad as one can get, even with the comfortably above-average strikeout rate. In short, Ottavino was as bad in 2017 as he was awesome in 2018.

I have seen 2017 explained away, in part, by Ottavino’s Tommy John Surgery. However, that surgery came in 2015, and Ottavino returned in the Summer of 2016, showing little to no rust. If anything, you’d expect him to be even better in 2017 – not to post by far his worst season since his cup of coffee debut way back in 2010. It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to have an uncommonly bad year; especially relievers, who are notoriously fickle. But it can’t be hand-waved, either.

There are signs that his 2018 wasn’t just random fluctuation, though. Ottavino essentially shelved his four-seamer this year, replacing it with sinkers and cutters:

And, like Familia, his high-end velocity has remained relatively steady, with the decline coming slowly:

And all of that was on purpose, as Ottavino explained to Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs. The Brooklyn native worked out at a vacant commercial property in Manhattan throughout that off-season, utilizing Driveline tech to help him hone his craft. Put that all together and you have something of a career year. The big question, of course, is whether that’s maintainable.

Ottavino, unlike many Rockies pitchers, doesn’t show an appreciable home-road split on the mound. He was actually better in Coors in 2013 and 2018, and performed similarly in 2017. Escaping that park will undoubtedly be a plus, but there’s not necessarily a ton of hidden value there.

The biggest concern with Ottavino, at least to me, is his age. He turned 33 in November, and both MLBTR and FanGraphs project a 3-year, $30 MM deal (which MLBTR actually sees him signing with the Yankees). I can somewhat buy 2017 being an aberration, and I am on-board with him rebuilding himself in the 2017-18 off-season – but he’s at an age where regression can come abruptly and viciously.

Ottavino is an obvious fit for the Yankees, as a guy that racks-up strikeouts and lives in the area (and apparently loves it). I love his determination to rebuild himself after a horrific season, as well, and it’s a great sign that it worked so well. I’m hesitant about a longer deal at his age – but I prefer him to Familia. And, again, at two years I’m definitely in.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, Scouting The Market

The reasons why the Yankees should (and should not) pursue Trevor Bauer over Corey Kluber

December 10, 2018 by Mike

Bauer. (Jason Miller/Getty)

When Patrick Corbin agreed to his six-year contract with the Nationals last week, the Yankees missed out on the best chance to add a pitcher who’s demonstrated top of the rotation ability for nothing but cash this offseason. Dallas Keuchel has a Cy Young to his credit but it’s been a few years since he pitched at that level. Charlie Morton had ace moments this year before finishing the season hurt. J.A. Happ? He’s fine. That’s about it. Fine.

The Yankees have already added one starter with top of the rotation ability in James Paxton and, to make it happen, they had to trade prospects. They’ll have to trade prospects (or big league players) to get another pitcher of that caliber. They’ll have to trade players and find a willing trade partner, which isn’t always easy because high-end starters rarely hit the market. Those guys are crazy valuable and teams try to keep them as long as possible.

Fortunately, one such trade partner exists, and they have two top of the rotation starters to peddle. Earlier this offseason the Indians indicated they’re willing to entertain trade offers for their starters and, in the wake of Carlos Carrasco’s incredibly team-friendly extension, Ken Rosenthal reports Cleveland will trade either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. Not may trade, will trade. The Indians need to get their payroll in order and the rotation will be the casualty.

Kluber is excellent and has been for years now. Bauer really came into his own this past season before a comebacker broke a bone in his leg in August and forced him to return as a reliever late in the year simply because there wasn’t enough time to get him stretched back out as a starter. An unfortunate fluke injury through and through. Kluber is the big name here but is Bauer the better trade target? Let’s compare the pros and cons.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s younger

Five years younger, in fact, and that’s significant. Bauer turns 28 next month and Kluber will turn 33 in April. Kluber, as good as he is, has started to show some signs of decline, specifically in his fastball velocity and his slider whiffs-per-swing rate. Bauer is trending in the other direction. He’s on the way up. And, even if you think 2018 was Bauer’s peak, his age theoretically makes him a better bet to maintain that level of performance going forward than Kluber. I’m not sure either guy offers more upside than the other, but Bauer does have age on his side.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s more luxury tax friendly

Not only is it two years of control (Bauer) vs. three years of control (Kluber), the luxury tax calculation favors Kluber the next two (and likely three) years, albeit slightly. Here’s the salary comparison:

Bauer Kluber
2019 $11.6M arbitration projection (via MLBTR) $17M ($11.7M luxury tax hit)
2020 $18M arbitration guesstimate $17.5M club option ($16.5M luxury tax hit)
2021 Free agent $18M club option ($18M luxury tax hit)

Bauer is arbitration-eligible the next two years and that creates some cost uncertainty. If he repeats his 2018 numbers in 2019, he could easily end up with $20M+ in 2020. Kluber’s salaries and luxury tax hits are locked in. His take home salary will exceed Bauer’s next year but his luxury tax hit will be about the same, and he’ll almost certainly that the lower luxury tax number in 2020, and the Yankees seem more concerned with the luxury tax payroll than actual money spent.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s on the upswing

Prior to the leg injury this year Bauer made 25 starts and threw 166 innings with a 2.22 ERA (2.38 FIP) with average ground ball (44.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates and an excellent strikeout rate (31.5%). In the second half last season Bauer threw 83.2 innings with a 3.01 ERA (3.68 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.5%) rates. That’s after a 5.24 ERA (4.06 FIP) in the first half. Look at this:

We’ve seen a lot of random one-year aces. Esteban Loaiza in 2003 is the gold standard for random one-year aces and, in recent years, others like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero had their moments as one of those “oh wow he’s an ace now … nevermind” guys. The fact Bauer’s breakout dates back to last year suggests this is more than a fluky one-year blip. He’s a soon-to-be 28-year-old former top prospect entering his prime. That’s a good time to get a guy, you know?

Reason to trade for Kluber: Bauer has some home run regression coming

The single biggest reason for Bauer’s improvement this past season was his sudden ability to limit home runs. From 2014-17, he ran a 1.09 HR/9 (11.9% HR/FB) rate. That is more or less league average. This past season Bauer managed a 0.46 HR/9 (6.2% HR/FB). Hmmm. Put him in Yankee Stadium and the AL East and his home run rate will inevitably climb because that’s the environment.

It’s also likely Bauer will experience some natural homer regression because almost no one is a true talent 6.2% HR/FB pitcher. Batted ball data goes back to 2002 and, among the 444 pitchers to throw at least 500 innings since then, Mariano Rivera has the lowest homer rate at 6.5% HR/FB. The lowest by a starter belongs to Jason Schmidt (7.6% HR/FB). The lowest by an American League starter belongs to Justin Verlander (8.6% HR/FB). So either Bauer’s true talent is suddenly the best home run suppressor of the last 16 years or he’s in for some home run rate correction next year. My money’s on the latter.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’ll probably come cheaper

An additional year of control combined with a much longer track record of excellence suggests it should cost more to acquire Kluber. That said, Kluber is older, and the market will be driven by supply and demand more than anything. Also, Bauer will be cheaper in 2019. The luxury tax hit will be similar, but in terms of actual salary, Bauer will be cheaper. I still think the extra year of control and track record points to Kluber fetching a greater return. I guess we’ll find out.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s not insufferable

My gosh is Bauer a sophomoric turd. A sophomoric turd who’s full of himself. He spent an afternoon last week tweeting pictures of middle fingers at people who made fun of him for his latest drone injury. There’s the Gerrit Cole/Alex Bregman feud (in which he keeps taking Ls). And last month Bauer said he only wants to sign one-year contracts because he’s such a pitching savant that he wants to go to many different teams and help as many young pitchers as possible. Tom Ley called Bauer a “stupid person’s idea of a smart person” earlier this year and it is perfect.

Bauer is very outspoken and he has a knack for saying dumb things. It is part of the Trevor Bauer experience. You don’t get to pick and choose the pieces you want. You get the whole package. MLB has suspended Bauer’s Twitter account on at least one occasion, likely because he told a fan to “quit life,” and every few weeks he says something dumb and controversial. About baseball, about politics, about whatever. In Cleveland, those things blow over quickly. In New York? Nah. Bauer’s a very talented pitcher but also an obvious headache. Kluber is anything but. He is business-like to the point of being boring, and the Yankees like boring. Any team that pursues Bauer will ask themselves “how much nonsense are we willing to live with to get a great pitcher?”

* * *

Rosenthal says the Indians are not interested in attaching a bad contract (like Jason Kipnis) to one of their starters to unload salary. Whichever starter they deal, the Indians want to maximize that starter’s trade value and get as much young talent as possible. They want to make a baseball trade, not a payroll trade. Good for them. I mean, it sucks they have to trade a starter for payroll reasons in the first place, but at least they’re going to focus on talent.

The fact Bauer is younger and entering what should be his prime makes him a more attractive trade target than Kluber, who’s almost certainly already had his best years and is theoretically about to enter his decline phase. That Bauer might not cost as much to acquire is icing on the cake. Kluber will be more luxury tax friendly going forward, albeit slightly, and he undoubtedly would not be as much of a distraction, and those are points in his favor. The New York media would have a field day with Bauer.

With the Yankees having missed out Corbin, they’ll have to trade players to get an impact pitcher now, because that clear-cut high-end starter does not exist in free agency. Happ is fine, Keuchel lost a lot of strikeouts and ground balls this year, and Morton ended the season hurt. Kluber and Bauer are on the short list of the best pitchers in the game and both are available, apparently. The Yankees should of course check in on both guys, and Bauer just might be the better option at this point.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Cleveland Indians, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer

Fan Confidence Poll: December 10th, 2018

December 10, 2018 by Mike

2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS

Top stories from last week:

  • Two free agent pitchers came off the board last week. Patrick Corbin signed a six-year, $140M contract with the Nationals and Nathan Eovaldi signed a four-year, $68M deal with the Red Sox.
  • J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn are among the Yankees’ Plan B pitching options. They also have Joakim Soria and Andrew Miller on their radar, and continue to discuss Sonny Gray with interested clubs.
  • The Yankees announced their Spring Training schedule. Pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa on Wednesday, February 13th.
  • George Steinbrenner was not voted into the Hall of Fame by the Today’s Game Committee.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

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