River Avenue Blues

Mailbag: Harper, Estrada, Sheffield, Simmons, Luxury Tax

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No, it’s not Friday, but it is Thanksgiving week, so I’m posting the mailbag early. The rest of the week will be pretty slow around here. Anyway, there are eight questions in this week’s special Wednesday edition of the mailbag. Send all your questions and comments to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Yankees pls. (Ezra Shaw/Getty)

Greg asks: Harper. Five years, $200 million. Who says no? Harper at 10 years 330 million+ just seems like too long a commitment, right? Yankees burn through luxury tax money but at least they know they’re as likely as can be to get Bryce’s 5 best years, and the dollars are still worth it in terms of likely WAR. Which side says no? Or is this a plausible deal?

It’s a good idea but this contract isn’t realistic at all. In the current landscape, your only hope of getting a guy like Bryce Harper on a five-year deal is giving him a ten-year deal with an opt-out after five years. Jason Heyward got eight years with opt-outs after years three and four. That’s essentially a three (or four) year deal with a five (or four) year insurance policy. Eric Hosmer got eight years with an opt-out after year five. That’s a five-year deal with a three-year insurance policy. That’s the free agent landscape right now.

Harper and Manny Machado are going to sign contracts so convoluted and loaded with opt-outs that it’ll be impossible to tell whether it’s fair value. They’re in position to get massive deals. I’m talking ten years and more than $30M annually. And they will sign for that. They’re also going to get opt-outs, probably more than one. That way, if things are going really well, they can test the market again. And if not, they stick to the original contract. A short-term, big dollar deal doesn’t work anymore. They’ll take the long-term deal with opt-outs rather than potentially leave themselves in position to struggle for work in a few years.

Jim asks (short version): Why are our Yankees farmhands assigned to the Glendale team doing so poorly? Especially the hitters in what I thought was regarded as a hitter’s league? Or, to look at it more broadly, after all the promotions and trades has our farm system gone quickly from exceptional to ordinary??

It was a really crappy year in the Arizona Fall League for Yankees prospects. I posted a minor league update earlier this week that quickly got buried by the Paxton trade. Thairo Estrada hit .238/.282/.263. Estevan Florial hit .178/.294/.260. The four pitchers combined to allow 45 runs in 56 innings. Yuck. The Yankees didn’t send any notable pitching prospects to the AzFL this year. I wouldn’t worry about them. Matt Wivinis is the most interesting as a spin rate guy. That’s about it. Don’t sweat the arms.

As for Estrada and Florial, they at least have the injury excuse? Thairo got shot last offseason and didn’t have the bullet removed until June. Plus he had some wrist and back trouble. Florial had wrist surgery this summer. But still, it was a disappointing year in the AzFL. I wouldn’t obsess over it — we’re talking about only 100 plate appearances or so — but yeah, it was a disappointing AzFL showing for everyone wearing the interlocking NY. I was hoping Florial in particular would tear it up. Alas.

As for the farm system overall, yes, it has definitely gone from great to middle of the pack (or worse) the last 18 months or so. For good reasons though. The Yankees graduated Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green to the big leagues, among others. They used Justus Sheffield, Blake Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo, and others as trade chips. It’s not like their prospects busted. Looking at my 2017 top 30 list, 15 of the 30 are either established MLB players or were traded for established MLB players, including ten of the top 14. That is a pretty great rate of return.

Tim asks: What is your prediction for when/if/where Thairo Estrada plays? By 2020 (or late 2019?) could he take over 2B allowing Torres to 3rd & Andujar to 1B how would the infield defense look in this hypothetical if Didi is a long term guy?

The injuries this season, which include getting shot in a botched robbery this past January, essentially put Estrada’s career on hold for a year. I really like the kid. He’s a rich man’s Ronald Torreyes. He gets the bat on the ball consistently and has some pop, and he’s a very good defender who can play the three non-first base infield positions. That’s a high-end utility guy or a low-end starter. Not sexy! But it’s better to grow your own players like that than give them a few million bucks as free agents.

Including the Arizona Fall League, the 22-year-old Estrada played only 37 games and received only 167 plate appearances this year. Ideally he’d spend most of 2019 in Triple-A to play as much as possible. That said, if a need arises at the MLB level, he’s on the 40-man roster and is a call-up option. I think Thairo’s an up-and-down guy in 2019, a full-time bench guy in 2020, and possibly a starter by 2021. I certainly wouldn’t let him stand of the way of a Didi Gregorius extension or Machado signing. Estrada looks like a useful piece but not a cornerstone type.

Dan asks: I don’t think the trade is bad at all, but did the Yanks strike too soon on Justus for Paxton, rather than waiting and trying to use him to acquire a better pitcher (Kluber, MadBum). You can only trade Justus once.

Nah, I don’t think they acted too soon. I’d rather have James Paxton than Madison Bumgarner at this point — Bumgarner is still really good, but it’s one year of Bumgarner vs. two of Paxton (Bumgarner’s past postseason success is meaningless to the Yankees) — and I’m not convinced Corey Kluber will actually be traded. Would I rather the Yankees have used Sheffield to get Kluber or Carlos Carrasco? Yes. But that may not have been possible, and you can’t ask the Mariners to wait to trade Paxton until you’ve exhausted trade talks with the Indians. I mean, you could, but they don’t have oblige. The choice wasn’t necessarily Paxton or Kluber/Bumgarner. It might’ve been Paxton or nothing because Kluber and Bumgarner aren’t truly attainable. Totally fine with it. Paxton’s really good and high-end starters are hard to acquire. Strike when you can and don’t worry about what’s behind Door No. 2.

Sir Didi & Andrelton. (Matt Roberts/Getty)

Seb asks: What would it take to pry away Andrelton Simmons from the Angels? Would you be interested?

It’d take a lot to get him and yes I’d be extremely interested. Simmons is still only 29, he remains an All-World defender at shortstop, and his bat has come around the last few seasons. He hit .292/.337/.417 (109 wRC+) with eleven homers this year and .278/.331/.421 (103 wRC+) with 14 homers last year. That offense with his defense makes Simmons a comfortable +5 WAR player. There are two years and $28M remaining on his contract ($8.29M luxury tax hit) which is extremely reasonable. I’d take Simmons in a heartbeat, especially with Gregorius out.

What would it take? Well, that’s the hard part. The Yankees don’t have Sheffield to trade anymore and their tippy top prospects are all lower level kids like Florial and Anthony Seigler. Aside from Andujar and Torres, their top MLB ready trade chips are concussed Clint Frazier, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, and Mike King. I don’t think two of those four (or three of the four?) plus other stuff would be enough. I’d want more if I were the Angels. Simmons would be a real great fit as a high contact (7.3 K% in 2018) bat. And once Gregorius returns, the Yankees could put Simmons at short, Didi at second, Gleyber at third, and Andujar in left or at first.

John asks: With the addition of Paxton, what is the future for J.A. Happ?

The Paxton trade doesn’t necessarily close the door on Happ. The Yankees are reportedly still interested in him. They have an open rotation spot and he’d be a cheaper alternative to Patrick Corbin. My quick math says the Yankees have $25M to spend under the $206M luxury tax threshold. Corbin would eat up pretty much all of that. Happ would chew up what, maybe $13M to $15M a year? That’d leave money for a Gregorius replacement and bullpen help. Heck, the Paxton trade might make a Happ reunion more likely given the financials associated with signing Corbin. In a vacuum, I’d greatly prefer Corbin. He’s younger and I think he’ll be the better pitcher going forward. This isn’t a vacuum though, salaries matter, and Happ may be the better fit. Happ is not going to have any shortage of suitors, of course. The Yankees will have to win a bidding war no matter which free agent starter they sign.

Emily asks: You said something in the chat this week that confused me: under a potential two-team expansion, you advocated for two leagues composed of four four-team divisions and a balanced schedule, with the top four teams from each league going to the playoffs, irrespective of division. Well if it’s a balanced schedule and records are irrespective of division, what purpose does having divisions serve?

As noted, my ideal MLB setup is two 16-team leagues, balanced schedules, and the top four teams in each league going to the postseason. Divisions would be pointless. Baseball also loves history and tradition though, and eliminating divisions all together seems like one of those things that would make people unnecessarily mad. So make four four-team divisions for bragging rights or whatever. Then people can complain it’s unfair that a division winner doesn’t make the postseason when it inevitably happens. There’s no reason for divisions under my preferred setup. It gives folks something to talk about though. Bragging rights, etc. Divisions would be pointless but also harmless.

Mark asks: Seeing how the Yankees stayed under the Base Tax Threshold, do they see part of the money paid into the Luxury Tax from other teams?

Indeed. The Yankees do get a piece of the luxury tax pie this year. According to the Ronald Blum, only the Red Sox ($11.3M) and Nationals ($2.1M) have to pay luxury tax this year. Here’s what happens to that combined $13.4M in luxury tax money per Collective Bargaining Agreement Article XXIII(H)(2)(a-c):

(a) The first $13 million of proceeds collected for each Contract Year shall be used to defray the Clubs’ funding obligations arising from the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.
(b) 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be used to fund contributions to the Players’ individual retirement accounts, as provided in the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.
(c) The other 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be provided to Clubs that did not exceed the Base Tax Threshold in that Contract Year.

Right off the top, $13M of the $13.4M is taken to defray player benefits. Half the remaining $400,000 is taken to help fund player retirement accounts. The remaining $200,000 is then given to the non-luxury tax paying teams. The $200,000 divided by 28 non-luxury tax paying teams equals $7,142.86 per team. An insignificant amount.

The Yankees have had some substantial luxury tax bills over the years. It was $27.4M as recently as 2016, for example. Chop that up as laid out above and the Yankees paid about $300,000 in luxury tax money to the 24 non-luxury tax paying teams that year. Still an insignificant amount to an MLB team. The Yankees have said they don’t want to line the pockets of other teams with luxury tax money, which is fine. But they’re not giving these teams millions. It’s a couple grand apiece.

RAB is hiring: Facebook Page Manager

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With over 8700 followers who are actively engaged in the Yankee conversation, the River Ave. Blues Facebook page is a key part of our online presence, and now RAB is looking for a new Facebook Page Manager who can oversee the page, keeping an eye on the tenor and tone of the conversation while growing the audience and driving traffic to the site. Duties include managing the day-to-day activities of the Facebook Page which include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Posting articles from website daily, optimizing content for the Facebook platform (particularly with breaking news).
  • Keeping up-to-date with social media trends and changes, while adapting creative and copy for posts to optimize impressions and engagement.
  • Moderating comments per the page guidelines and rules. Revise guidelines as needed.
  • Responding to direct messages as needed.
  • Develop and implement paid strategies for follower growth as needed.

Qualifications:

  • Familiarity with RAB, its brand and content.
  • Familiarity with Facebook Page Manager platform. Prior experience managing pages a plus but not a requirement.
  • Knowledge and understanding of the Facebook platform, its recipients and how Facebook can be deployed for media companies to grow exposure.
  • Social Customer Service skills and experience a plus.
  • Ability to write clearly and concisely about baseball in a manner optimized for Facebook.

Time: 7-10 hours/week

Stipend: $300/month

To Apply: Send an email to ben at riveraveblues dot com (replacing the words with the proper punctuation) with a summary of qualifications and relevant experience, a few examples of ways you would post recent RAB posts to Facebook (including with summary text and any other creative that may be required), and a few examples of ideas you would pursue to grow RAB’s Facebook presence. Any emails with attachments will be deleted.

Deadline To Apply: Monday, November 26, 2018

Yanks add Joe Harvey to 40-man roster prior to Rule 5 Draft protection deadline

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A bespectacled reliever? Intrigue. (Matt Bufano/Pinstriped Prospects)

Tonight is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man roster for next month’s Rule 5 Draft and the Yankees announced just one one roster addition: Joe Harvey, a right-handed reliever. There are now 39 players on the 40-man roster. The deadline is 8pm ET, so more moves could be on the way.

Harvey, 26, was the Yankees’ 19th round pick in 2014. He was a trusted late-inning reliever for Triple-A Scranton this past season, throwing 54.1 innings with a 1.66 ERA (2.49 FIP) with a very good strikeout rate (28.5%) and an okay walk rate (9.8%). He’s a mid-90s fastball guy with a curveball and something resembling a changeup. Classic reliever profile.

Similar to Dietrich Enns back in the day, Harvey had Tommy John surgery early in his pro career and has been untouchable since returning. He had elbow reconstruction in June 2015 and, since returning in July 2016, he’s thrown 106.1 minor league innings with a 1.35 ERA (2.81 FIP) and 27.7% strikeouts. How about that? I imagine he’ll be a shuttle bullpener in 2019.

The Yankees didn’t have many notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects this offseason. Chance Adams and Stephen Tarpley (and Justus Sheffield) were added to the 40-man roster during the season and Rule 5 Draft eligible guys like Erik Swanson, Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, Abi Avelino, and Cody Carroll were traded away in recent weeks and months.

Among the notable players the Yankees are leaving exposed to the Rule 5 Draft are righties Raynel Espinal and Nick Green, lefties Nestor Cortes and James Reeves, and infielders Kyle Holder and Brandon Wagner. I thought Holder would get protected. Shows what I know. Cortes, Espinal, and Reeves stand the best chance of getting picked, I think.

As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must remain on their new team’s 25-man active big league roster all next season, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their original organization. Ten different players were selected from the Yankees in the last three Rule 5 Drafts and only one, catcher Luis Torrens with the Padres, has stuck.

The Yankees have an open 40-man roster spot and that would allow them to make a Rule 5 Draft pick themselves — they haven’t made a pick in years — but I’d bet against it. They’re still looking to add a starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen help this offseason. That open 40-man spot will likely be put to use there.

The Yankees’ Five Biggest Hits of 2018

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(Getty)

As you’d expect with a team that won 100 games and went to the postseason, the Yankees pounded out several big hits this past season. Especially early in the year, when they went on that 17-1 run and seemed to come from behind in the late innings every game. You can’t win that many games without occasionally turning some high probability losses into wins.

With that in mind, it’s time for our annual look back at the five biggest base hits of the Yankees’ season. To do so, we’re going to use Championship Probability Added, which is essentially Win Probability Added on steroids. WPA tells us how much closer a play gets you to an individual win. CPA tells us how much closer a play gets you to winning the World Series.

Given the nature of the CPA, you shouldn’t be surprised to learn the team’s five biggest hits of the year came in the postseason. In fact, their 14 biggest hits of the year came in the postseason. Don’t worry, we’ll make some time for the clutchiest regular season hits later in the post. Let’s dig into the five biggest hits of the year according to CPA, shall we?

5. Sanchez vs. Price in ALDS Game Two

The Yankees’ fifth biggest hit of the regular season left the yard. With the Yankees already leading 1-0, Gary Sanchez clobbered a long solo home run against David Price in the second inning of ALDS Game Two. Price left a cutter up just enough and Gary did not miss it.

Sanchez’s career numbers against Price are absolutely silly. Including the postseason, he is 7-for-14 with six homers against Price. Four walks and only two strikeouts too. That’s a .500/.611/1.786 batting line. I usually don’t put too much stock into hitter vs. pitcher stats — I absolutely believe a hitter can “own” a pitcher and vice versa, though head-to-head numbers usually come in very few plate appearances, and it’s hard to know what’s legit and what’s noise — but man, when you’re 7-for-14 with six homers against a guy, I have to take notice. CPA: +0.009.

4. Judge vs. Price in ALDS Game Two

One inning before Sanchez gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead in ALDS Game Two, it was Aaron Judge who gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead. That was homers in back-to-back at-bats for Judge dating back to the ninth inning of Game One. Price left a cutter out over the plate to Judge, and he walloped it over the Green Monster for a mighty no-doubt dinger.

That was huge, obviously. Whenever you drop Game One of a postseason series — especially a best-of-five series — you want to come out right away and take it to ’em in Game Two. Respond right away and don’t give the other team a chance to feel confident.

Also, my favorite thing about this home run is this picture:

(Presswire)

Perfect. Just perfect. I know Price got the postseason monkey off his back in the ALCS and World Series, but it’s still comforting to know the Yankees crush him. Including the postseason, Price allowed 23 runs and eleven homers in 17.1 innings against the Yankees this year, and that includes one start in which he allowed two runs in six innings. Goodness. CPA: +0.009.

3. Sanchez vs. Rodriguez in ALDS Game Two

Right back to ALDS Game Two. It was a pretty important game, after all. Last game the Yankees won this season! Also the game that allowed them to tie the ALDS at a game apiece.

The Yankees were nursing a 3-1 in the sixth inning of ALDS Game Two and, as we all know, a two-run lead in Fenway Park is nothing. The game might as well be tied. Sanchez thankfully gave the Yankees some insurance with a very long — longest of the season, in fact — three-run home run against Eduardo Rodriguez. I enjoyed this homer greatly:

That was the longest home run hit by a Yankee this season and it was also the last home run hit by a Yankee this season. Sanchez came oh so close to a walk-off grand slam in ALDS Game Four and instead had to settle for a sacrifice fly (video). That non-homer won’t necessarily haunt me this winter — haunt is too strong a word — but damn, every once in a while I think about it and it bums me out. I thought it was the big one. CPA: +0.011.

2. Gregorius vs. Kimbrel in ALDS Game Four

Baseball is cruel. According to Championship Probably Added, the team’s second biggest hit of the season did not drive in a run. It wasn’t a walk-off hit or a game-tying hit or a screaming line drive or anything like that.

The second biggest hit of the season was Didi Gregorius’ ground ball single in the ninth inning of ALDS Game Four. All it did (“all” it did) was bring the tying run to the plate with no outs in the final half-inning of the season. It proved to be the Yankees’ final hit of the season and also Didi’s final pre-Tommy John surgery hit. Like I said, baseball can be cruel.

That dinky little single put two men on base with no outs. Judge drew a four-pitch walk to start the frame and, later in the inning, Luke Voit drew a walk to load the bases and Neil Walker took a pitch to the foot to force in a run. That’s when Sanchez hit his high non-homer. Sigh. CPA: +0.011.

1. Judge vs. Hendriks in AL Wild Card Game

The Yankees played five elimination games last postseason and went 4-1. The four wins were nice, but, ultimately, the one loss is the only thing that really counts. This year the Yankees played only two elimination games. They lost ALDS Game Four and went home. They got to the ALDS with a Wild Card Game win over the A’s.

The club’s single biggest hit of the season — both sabermetrically and emotionally, I’d say — came in the first inning of that Wild Card Game. Against A’s opener Liam Hendriks, Judge clobbered a two-run home run that gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead in the winner-take-all game.

That took the edge off a bit. The Wild Card Game is intense, man. We’ve been through them a few times now. Judge’s homer this year doesn’t compare to Didi’s Wild Card Game homer last year, but gosh, it was awesome. Also, I’m pretty sure this is the closest we’ll ever get to see Judge come to flipping his bat. Too bad the camera cut away so quickly:

Beyond putting two runs on the board in a winner-take-all game, that home run was also important because it showed up Judge’s wrist was healthy. Or healthier, anyway. Judge went 9-for-41 (.220) with one homer in 13 regular season games after returning from the disabled list and the homer didn’t come until his second-to-last game. Then he smashed that first inning homer in the Wild Card Game. At 116.1 mph, it was not only Judge’s hardest hit ball since the wrist injury. It was his hardest hit ball since June 4th, nearly two full months before the wrist injury. It was great to see. CPA: +0.019.

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You’ve got to qualify for the postseason before you can get big hits in the postseason, and the Yankees, despite winning 100 games, didn’t lock up a postseason spot until the final week of the season. Such is life when four AL teams win 97+ games. Here are the team’s five biggest regular season hits by CPA:

  1. April 26th: Sanchez’s three-run walk-off homer vs. Fernando Rodney (+0.004 CPA) (video)
  2. May 9th: Brett Gardner’s go-ahead two-run triple vs. Craig Kimbrel (+0.004 CPA) (video)
  3. May 29th: Gardner’s game-tying two-run homer vs. Chris Devenski (+0.003 CPA) (video)
  4. May 3rd: Gleyber Torres’ go-ahead two-run single vs. Brad Peacock (+0.003 CPA) (video)
  5. May 29th: Gleyber’s walk-off single vs. Peacock (+0.003 CPA) (video)

Now, for the sake of completeness, here are the five biggest regular season hits by WPA:

  1. April 26th: Sanchez’s walk-off homer vs. Rodney (+0.66 WPA) (video)
  2. August 31st: Gleyber’s go-ahead two-run single vs. Alex Wilson (+0.55 WPA) (video)
  3. August 7th: Giancarlo Stanton’s go-ahead two-run homer vs. Tyler Danish (+0.49 WPA) (video)
  4. May 29th: Gardner’s game-tying homer vs. Devenski (+0.47 WPA) (video)
  5. June 20th: Stanton’s two-run walk-off homer vs. Ryan Cook (+0.43 WPA) (video)

By both measures, Sanchez’s walk-off home run against the Twins was the biggest hit of the regular season. That was win No. 6 during the 17-1 stretch. CPA and WPA are nice, it’s good to put a number on things, but big hits have a certain feel to them, know what I mean? To me, the biggest hit of the regular season felt like Gardner’s go-ahead triple against Kimbrel and the Red Sox. That was a wild back-and-forth game and Yankee Stadium had a postseason atmosphere in May. The place was rockin’. I can’t remember the last time a hit in May felt that important.

I usually pair the biggest hits post with a biggest outs post (biggest out by Yankees’ pitchers, that is), but I kinda gave them away already in the Dellin Betances season review post, so I don’t think there’s a need to dig back into it. Besides, four of the five biggest outs came consecutively. Here’s the list:

  1. Wild Card Game: Luis Severino strikes out Marcus Semien to end fourth (+0.011 CPA)
  2. Wild Card Game: Betances gets Matt Chapman to fly out for the first out of the fifth (+0.009 CPA)
  3. ALDS Game Four: CC Sabathia gets Ian Kinsler to fly out to end the first (+0.008 CPA)
  4. Wild Card Game: Betances gets Jed Lowrie to fly out for the second out of the fifth (+0.007 CPA)
  5. Wild Card Game: Betances strikes out Khris Davis to end the fifth (+0.007 CPA)

And finally, if you’re a masochist and are simply dying to know, the biggest hit against the Yankees this season was J.D. Martinez’s three-run home run in ALDS Game One (+0.017 CPA). The biggest regular season hit was Justin Smoak’s grand slam against David Robertson (+0.004 CPA and +0.61 WPA) back during the first series of the year, when the Yankees intentionally walked Josh Donaldson to load the bases. That was far too much aggravation for the fourth game of the season.

The Sub-Replacement Relievers [2018 Season Review]

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A.J. Cole (Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees bullpen was nothing short of great this year, despite some noteworthy implosions and the occasionally questionable usage patterns. It ranked first in baseball in fWAR by a full win, and also paced the league in K% and WPA. And, even in the face of the occasional meltdown, they ranked second-to-last in FanGraphs meltdown metric – meaning those rough patches happened less frequently than all but one other team.

That, of course, does not mean that they were without weak links in the chain. Let’s take a look at their two worst relievers this year, beginning with:

A.J. Cole

On April 23, the Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals for cash considerations. It was essentially a nothing trade, with an eye towards depth rather than tangible improvements to the front end of the bullpen. There was some semblance of a notion that Cole could be more than that, given that he had only just turned 26, and was only a few years removed from being one of the 50 or so best prospects in baseball. His 5.32 ERA in 110.0 big league innings left a great deal to be desired – but, for cash and cash alone, it was a worthwhile move regardless of expectations.

And Cole kicked-off his Yankees career in rather grand fashion, tossing five straight scoreless outings, and pitching to the following line: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 BB, 12 K. It was notable that those five appearances came over a four week span, so it wasn’t as though he was working regularly; moreover, the average leverage index was 0.73, which means that those appearances were predominantly low-pressure. But, even so, it seemed that Brian Cashman may’ve found another weapon for the bullpen.

Cole took his first lumps as a Yankee on May 28, allowing a run in 2.1 IP against the Astros. That, however, represented his worst appearance in his first three months with the team (albeit in just 13 games in that span). In that time Cole pitched to a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 IP, allowing just 18 base-runners while striking out 28. And, as a testament to his effectiveness, he did not allow a single one of his five inherited runners to score.

Was there something tangible here to tell us that he might be for real? Yes, actually: the Yankees anti-fastball approach.

As a member of the Nationals, Cole was throwing between 52 and 70% fastballs; with the Yankees, he threw 25.4% overall. He primarily replaced the fastball with sliders, and that made sense, given that (as per BrooksBaseball) his fastball was his worst pitch, and the slider his best. And it paid huge dividends for several month.

And then Cole fell apart.

It doesn’t bear reliving to a significant degree, but Cole would go on to make 15 more appearances in 2018, and he’d allow at least 1 run in 9 of those games. His line: 16.1 IP, 27 H, 21 R, 16 ER, 10 BB, 21 K, 8.82 ERA. Batters hit .346/.420/.744 with 8 home runs in 88 PA in this time, and Yankees fans had a collective coronary whenever he graced the mound.

What was the reason for this backslide? It’s not entirely clear. His velocity was steady, and batters continued to struggle against his slider even as he fell apart. It may’ve just been a matter of regression to the mean combined with the league learning to simply avoid his slider.

Cole ended the Bronx portion of his season with a 4.26 ERA in 38.0 ERA, which works out to a slightly above-average 103 ERA+. He still has five years of team control remaining, as per Baseball-Reference; he’s out of options, though, so he’d have to pass through waivers if the Yankees wanted to send him down. I could see him remaining with the organization as a depth arm, but there’s a good chance he’s done in pinstripes.

Tommy Kahnle

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Yankees acquired Kahnle from the White Sox a couple of weeks before the 2017 trade deadline, along with Todd Frazier and David Robertson. The latter two had more name value, but Kahnle was thought to be the the biggest and best chip in the deal. It’s not hard to see why, either; he was 27 at the time, came with four-plus seasons of team control remaining, and had been utterly dominant since first suiting up with the South Siders in 2017.

Kahnle was pretty darn good with the Yankees in 2017, pitching to a 2.70 ERA (169 ERA+) in 26.2 IP, and continuing to mow down batters to the tune of a 31.3% strikeout rate. His walk rate spiked from 5.0% in Chicago to 8.7% in the Bronx, which was somewhat disconcerting – but it was still league-average, and it didn’t hinder his overall effectiveness. All signs pointed to Kahnle being a true weapon in the late innings.

And then Kahnle opened the season with a stark reduction in his velocity, and limped out to a 6.14 ERA in his first six appearances. There was nothing promising about those outings, either; I suppose you could point to his 9 strikeouts in 7.1 IP, but those were countered by 8 walks, and it looked like the pre-Chicago version of Kahnle was back. It was so bothersome that there was a collective sigh of relief when he hit the DL with tendinitis on April 17, as it meant that there was an underlying cause for his awfulness beyond him … well … being awful.

Kahnle made a couple of tune-up appearances in the minors in late May, and didn’t look too good, allowing five hits (including a home run) and two runs in three innings. There were reports that his velocity was still down, but he nevertheless rejoined the team and returned to big league action on May 26. He faced-off against the Angels that day, and allowed two hits, two walks, and four runs in 0.2 IP. His fastball velocity was back above 96 MPH, but he looked bad. And he was back in the minors a week later.

Kahnle spent all of June and July in Triple-A, and he was effective, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and striking out 31 (against 8 walks) in 20.2 IP. The velocity was still down in the 95-96 range, instead of the 98ish that we saw in 2017, but he was getting outs, and that’s what matters. His free agency was also delayed for a year, which is a fringe benefit (assuming that he’s worth having around).

The now 29-year-old returned to the Yankees for good in mid-August, but the struggles continued. He appeared in fifteen games from that point forward, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 IP; he continued to strike out batters in droves, with 19 strikeouts, and his 5 walks were palatable – but he was hit hard when batters did make contact. It was ugly. All told, Kahnle pitched to a 6.56 ERA (67 ERA+) in 23.1 big league innings.

Unlike Cole, it’s easy to pinpoint a reason for Kahnle’s struggles – and it comes in graph form.

Kahnle’s fastball averaged 97.0 MPH in 2016, 98.1 in 2017, and 95.5 in 2018 – and that’s incredibly significant. His other offerings dipped at similar rates, too, so it does make one wonder if the aforementioned shoulder tendinitis played a role throughout the season. His overall walk rate of 14.0% was awful, but his walks trended downwards when he was recalled, and it didn’t really matter; Kahnle’s biggest issue was that batters were able to square-up all of his pitches and drive them with authority. The fact that he wasn’t locating didn’t help, of course, but it’s a bit easier to get away with that when you have truly elite stuff (see: Betances, Dellin).

The Yankees have three more years of team control remaining on Kahnle, and this will be his second trip through arbitration as a Super Two. He’s slated to earn about $1.5 MM this year, and I fully expect the team to keep him around for at least another season, with the hopes that an off-season of rest will cure what ails him.

Thoughts following the James Paxton trade

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(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

Only three weeks into the offseason, the Yankees have made their first significant move. Yesterday evening the Yankees shipped three prospects to the Mariners for the man they call Big Maple. Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, and Dom Thompson-Williams went to Seattle for left-hander James Paxton. A big deal, this is. Here are some thoughts.

1. Did the Yankees take on risk with this trade? Of course they did. Every trade involves taking on some risk. The Yankees got the less risky end of this trade though. Yes, Paxton carries more risk than the typical 30-year-old because he has an injury history, but he’s still established as a comfortably above-average big league starter. Sheffield still has to iron out his command and he himself has some injury issues (shoulder this year, oblique last year). Swanson? Thompson-Williams? Who knows. In an ace-for-prospects trade the team that gives up the prospects to get the ace rarely regrets it. Maybe Paxton isn’t a true ace. I don’t think he is. I believe there’s a certain level of durability and year-to-year consistency required to be an ace and he’s yet to show it. But Paxton is awfully good. Trading prospects for multiple years of an above-average starter is exactly what a contending team should do. The Yankees took on risk? Well, yeah, of course. But they got the sure thing in this trade, or at least the closest thing to a sure thing, anyway.

2. I came into the offseason kinda blah on Paxton. I fully acknowledged his effectiveness and ability to dominate — the guy did strike out 16 and throw a no-hitter in back-to-back starts this season, after all — but I didn’t love the injury history and some other things. Then, as I wrote our Scouting the Market post, I talked myself into liking him. The injury history isn’t as scary as I thought — his elbow and shoulder have largely held up — and a lefty who misses bats and doesn’t have a significant platoon split is very valuable. Only ten times in the last ten years has a southpaw thrown 150+ innings and struck out at least 30% of the batters he faced. Chris Sale did it four times and Clayton Kershaw did it twice. Paxton did it one of the other four times. It’s him, Blake Snell, Patrick Corbin, and Robbie Ray. It’s hard to find lefties who can miss this many bats and I love that Paxton does it with his fastball and in the strike zone. Sixty-one starters (relievers are in their own little world) threw at least 1,000 fastballs in the strike zone this past season. The whiffs-per-swing leaderboard on heaters in the zone:

  1. Jacob deGrom: 17.3%
  2. Justin Verlander: 15.8%
  3. Max Scherzer: 15.4%
  4. Gerrit Cole: 15.3%
  5. James Paxton: 13.7%
    MLB Average: 9.6%

Fifth highest whiffs-per-swing rate on fastballs in the strike zone in baseball and the highest among lefties. That is my kinda guy. Strikeouts and swings and misses play everywhere, especially in Yankee Stadium and the hitter friendly AL East. Jeff Sullivan wrote about Paxton recently and included a neat chart that shows he ranks near the top of the league in basically everything. Strikeouts, swings and misses, weak contact, so on and so forth. Like I said, I wasn’t sold on Paxton coming into the offseason. Once I looked at him a little deeper and saw how he was doing it, I came around. The price is right (more on that in a bit) and Paxton’s a good fit. I really like this trade.

3. Strikeouts and swings and misses play everywhere but fly balls do not, and Paxton’s ground ball rate went from 48.1% in 2016 to 44.9% in 2017 to 39.6% in 2018. Not coincidentally, his home run rate jumped from 0.67 HR/9 in 2016 to 0.60 HR/9 in 2017 to 1.29 HR/9 in 2018. Also, it’s not just “more fly balls equal more homers” either. His HR/FB rate went from 8.2% to 7.8% to 14.4% from 2016-18. Not only did Paxton give up more fly balls this year, his fly balls left the yard at a higher rate. That is the obvious concern here. Like every other pitcher, Paxton will give up more home runs with the move into Yankee Stadium, but it’s kinda weird that his career home run rate on the road (0.79 HR/9 and 10.0% HR/FB) is better than his career home run rate at spacious Safeco Field (0.88 HR/9 and 10.7% HR/FB). I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. Point is, Paxton’s home run rate really jumped this year and that’s always a concern, especially since he’s now moving into a home run ballpark. (The Yankees are actually really good at limiting homers at home. They allowed 95 homers at home in 2018, the 14th most in baseball. That’s tied with the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium and eight fewer than the Indians at Progressive Field with their nasty rotation. Considering their home ballpark, I think the Yankees allowing “only” the 14th most homers at home is pretty darn good.)

4. Aside from home runs, the big concern with Paxton is his injury history, which isn’t as bad as I thought but is still pretty bad. He missed three weeks with back trouble this year, a month each with forearm and pectoral injuries last year, four months with finger problems three years ago, and four months with lat problems four years ago. The elbow and shoulder are good, but still. That’s a lot of injuries. “I’ve learned how to make sure those things don’t happen again through exercise or whatever and I’m doing everything I can to prepare myself and be ready for an entire season,” said Paxton during his post-trade conference call. Brian Cashman said the Yankees reviewed Paxton’s medicals and believe he is “trending in the right direction,” which meant they didn’t see anything scary. No signs of structural damage or anything like that. That’s all well and good, but the best predictor of future injury is past injury, and Paxton’s found his way to the disabled list at least once every year from 2014-18. Only once has he reached 170 innings and only three times has he reached 160 innings. I suppose the good news is two of those 160-inning seasons have come within the last three years. Going forward, I think you pencil Paxton in for 160 innings and consider anything more as gravy. This is a (just turned) 30-year-old pitcher though. He’s not a 22 or 23-year-old kid, you know? If he’s pitching well, let him go and don’t worry about an innings limit.

5. Are the Yankees moving away from the anti-fastball philosophy? They traded for two of the most extreme fastball pitchers at the deadline and just traded for another one. The top five fastball usage rates this past season:

  1. Lance Lynn: 88.9%
  2. James Paxton: 81.5%
  3. David Price: 74.9%
  4. Jon Lester: 74.8%
  5. J.A. Happ: 73.3%

The Yankees let Lynn and Happ continue throwing all those fastballs and I imagine they’ll do the same with Paxton. No sense in fixing what isn’t broke, right? Is this all a sign the Yankees are moving away from the anti-fastball philosophy? Eh. I don’t think we can say so definitively. I think these pickups are at least partly a function of the market. The Yankees traded for Lynn and Happ because they were available. Same with Paxton. You can’t acquire players who aren’t available, right? Right. Lynn, Happ, and Paxton were available and the Yankees went out to get them. I don’t think they intentionally sought out fastball guys. I think it just kinda worked out that way. Kinda funny though, isn’t it? The Yankees have been an extreme anti-fastball team the last two years and now they went out and added a bunch of pitchers who live and die with their heaters. Baseball can be funny.

The Yankees have a Judge but no Justus. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

6. Trading Sheffield stinks but I am totally cool with giving him up to get Paxton. Sheffield’s best case is basically Paxton, that power left-handed starter who misses a ton of bats. That’s Paxton now and that’s what Sheffield projects to be in the future, minus about four inches and 35 pounds. When you’re ready to win right now, of course you trade a potential Paxton for the real Paxton. Get the guy who can help you win today. I wrote exactly that over the summer, when I wrote a series of devil’s advocate posts explaining why the Yankees should trade some of their top prospects. Sheffield’s timetable didn’t really line up with the rest of the Yankees. They’re ready to win right now. It might be two or three years before Sheffield gets stretched out to 160+ innings and settles in as a big leaguer, and is truly ready to be an impact starter. I think he can do it. I think he can be an impact starter. The command needs improvement but the stuff is legit. It won’t happen overnight though. The Yankees are poised to make a run at the 2019 (and 2020) World Series championship and Paxton is much better able to help them do that than Sheffield. The Yankees moved up the timeline, basically. They traded Sheffield for his best case scenario, giving up four years of control in exchange for a big increase in certainty.

7. I don’t have a strong opinion about Thompson-Williams. He had a nice breakout season this year and I was curious to see whether his new launch angle approach worked at Double-A going forward. Now I’ll have to watch from afar. As far as I’m concerned, Swanson is the second piece in this trade, and he’s a quality prospect who will probably help the 2019 Mariners more than Sheffield. He’s an older prospect (25) with good stuff and good numbers, and he’s basically big league ready. Had he not been traded, the Yankees would’ve added Swanson to the 40-man roster prior to today’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline and there’s a pretty good chance we would’ve seen him on shuttle duty this year. The thing is, the Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects like Swanson. They don’t have obvious spots for Domingo German and Luis Cessa, both of whom are out of options. Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams will be in Triple-A. Trevor Stephan, Nick Green, Garrett Whitlock, and Nick Nelson are right behind those dudes in Double-A. Swanson’s a quality prospect who will have a much greater opportunity at big league playing time with the Mariners than he would’ve with the Yankees. The Yankees’ farm system is an Erik Swansons factory these days. They should trade guys like him as the second piece for impact big leaguers like James Paxton eight times a week and twice on Sundays.

8. My quick math puts the Yankees at $25.2M under next year’s $206M luxury tax threshold. The inevitable Sonny Gray trade could clear up another $9M or so but that’s not a safe assumption. The Yankees may end up taking some salary back in a Gray trade. With that $25.2M the Yankees have to add another starting pitcher, replace the injured Didi Gregorius, and add another reliever or two to replace free agents David Robertson and Zach Britton. So, on one hand, there’s enough room under the luxury tax threshold to sign Patrick Corbin. He’s going to get paid but something north of $25M per year would surprise me. On the other hand, signing Corbin would leave little spending room for a Gregorius replacement and a reliever. We already knew that, realistically, there was no way the Yankees could sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper without exceeding the threshold. The Paxton addition means that, unless the Yankees can unload Gray’s entire salary, they’ll have to go over the threshold to sign Corbin and adequately replace Gregorius and Robertson/Britton. Does this mean Corbin is off the table and a lower cost guy like J.A. Happ will become the primary target? We’ll see. The main point I’m trying to make here is that the Yankees still have some money to spend but also some needs to address. A rotation spot is still open, a middle infield spot is still open, and a little bullpen help would be welcome. The Yankees are far from done this offseason.

Yankees acquire James Paxton for Justus Sheffield, two others

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(Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

The rotation was always going to be a priority this offseason and the Yankees have added one of the better lefties in the game. The Yankees have acquired James Paxton from the Mariners for top prospect Justus Sheffield and prospects Erik Swanson and Dom Thompson-Williams, both teams announced. It is a done deal. Officially official.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto indicated the team is ready to rebuild a few weeks ago — his term was “re-imagine” the roster — and soon thereafter he shipped Mike Zunino to the Rays. The Paxton rumors started up soon thereafter and the Yankees were a logical landing spot given their need for rotation help and the perpetual need for quality lefties in Yankee Stadium.

“I’m just honored to get a chance to be a Yankee and be a part of the great history and commitment to winning there.,” said Paxton on a conference call this evening. “I couldn’t be more excited about it. It’s going to be a fantastic opportunity in New York, always expecting to win, the way I do. I’m looking forward to being a part of a fantastic team.”

Paxton turned 30 earlier this month and he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA (3.24 FIP) with 32.3% strikeouts and 6.5% walks this past season. He is under control as an arbitration-eligible player another two years — MLBTR projects a $9M salary in 2019 and that’ll probably jump to $15M or so in 2020 — so he’s not a rental. He’s not dirt cheap, but he’s not a rental.

Here’s my Scouting the Market post on Paxton, so check that out for everything you need to know about that guy. Long story short, he’s really good and he throws a lot of fastballs. The Yankees are an anti-fastball team, but, given the way the Yankees treated J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn last year, I imagine they’ll continue letting Paxton throw all those fastballs. That’s how he gets his outs. No need to change.

The Yankees now have four starters penciled in for next season: Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and CC Sabathia in whatever order. Sonny Gray is still on the roster but he is as good as gone. He’s getting traded, maybe soon. Their rotation depth is Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams. There’s still a lot of offseason to go, however.

Even with Paxton and his projected salary on board, the Yankees have about $25M remaining under next year’s $206M luxury tax threshold. That is roughly the annual of cost of one (1) Patrick Corbin. Also, depending how the Gray trade works out, the Yankees may free up $9M or so in that deal. We’ll see. Right now, the Yankees still have some money to spend and one rotation spot to address, plus other stuff (Didi Gregorius replacement, bullpen etc.).

As for the players going to Seattle, Sheffield is clearly the headliner. He took over as the organization’s obvious No. 1 prospect once Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar graduated to MLB, and MLB.com currently ranks him as the 31st best prospect in baseball. The Yankees originally acquired Sheffield from the Indians in the Andrew Miller trade back in 2016. More than two years ago already? Geez.

(Presswire)

Sheffield, 22, had a 2.48 ERA (2.98 FIP) with 25.9% strikeouts and 10.5% walks in 116 innings across Double-A and Triple-A this past season. He made his MLB debut in September and it didn’t go well (2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K) but who cares. Countless pitchers have struggled in their first 2.2 big league innings. Sheffield’s a great prospect, but you have to give something good to get a guy like Paxton.

The 25-year-old Swanson came over in the Carlos Beltran trade and MLB.com ranked him as the No. 22 prospect in the system before the trade. I haven’t started sketching out my annual top 30 prospects list yet but Swanson would’ve made it, likely somewhere in that 20-25 range. He threw 121.1 innings with a 2.66 ERA (2.91 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 6.1% walks at mostly Triple-A this year.

Thompson-Williams, 23, was the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2016. He broke out this past season, hitting .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with a farm system leading 22 home runs in 100 Single-A games. Thompson-Williams hit six homers in 120 games from 2016-17. He didn’t rank among the team’s top 30 prospects before the trade, per MLB.com. I don’t think I would’ve had him in next year’s preseason top 30 but it’s hard to say for sure at this point.

On the 40-man roster front, the Yankees will end up saving a spot here. Paxton takes Sheffield’s spot and Swanson is Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, and I imagine he would’ve been added to the 40-man prior to tomorrow’s protection deadline. A big league ready (or close to it) pitcher with those Triple-A numbers is an obvious protection candidate. Now the Yankees won’t have to add him to the 40-man.

I’m not going to lie, I thought it would be much more painful to acquire Paxton. It’s one top prospect and two depth prospects, basically. Last year’s Gerrit Cole trade, which was much more quantity over quality, may’ve skewed the trade market a bit. Cole and Paxton both had two years of control at the time of their trades and neither fetched multiple top prospects. My first thought after seeing both trades was “wow, that’s light.”

Paxton has hardly been a workhorse in his career — he’s never thrown as many as 175 innings in a season and only three times has he thrown 160 innings — but the innings he does provide tend to be very good. The Yankees needed a major upgrade to their rotation, not a few tweaks, and Paxton does represent that big upgrade. Or at least I hope he does. Getting Sonny Grayed again would stink.