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River Ave. Blues » Erik Swanson

A New Era in the Farm System [2018 Season Review]

December 6, 2018 by Mike

Florial. (Presswire)

It has been a crazy few years in the farm system. The Yankees had a middle of the pack system on Opening Day 2016. By the end of that season it was arguably the best farm system in the game, mostly because of the team’s trade deadline sell-off, but also because several guys who were already in the system broke out. Since the end of the 2016 season, that strong farm system has provided a steady pipeline of talent to the Bronx.

The farm system now is not what the farm system was then because of graduations and trades (and injuries and poor performances), which is what we all expected. If you have great prospects, you want them to become great big leaguers and leave the farm system behind. That is exactly what’s happened for the Yankees. The system is back to being middle of the pack now, maybe even worse, and for all the right reasons. Let’s review the year that was down in the minors.

The Graduates

The last two seasons (two and a half, really) have been incredible in terms of graduating prospects from the farm system to the big leagues. Gary Sanchez arrived in 2016. Last year it was Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green. This season the Yankees graduated 3B Miguel Andujar (season review) and IF Gleyber Torres (season review) to the big leagues, and they finished second and third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, respectively. They came into the season as the top two position player prospects in the farm system.

Also graduating to MLB this year were RHP Jonathan Holder (season review), RHP Domingo German (season review), and IF Tyler Wade (season review). Wade actually exhausted his rookie eligibility last season through service time, but it wasn’t until this year that he exceeded the 130 at-bat rookie limit. Four of my preseason top 30 Yankees prospects joined the Yankees and exhausted their rookie eligibility this season. (Five of the top ten and six of the top 13 on my 2017 list have since graduated to the Yankees.) As a result, the Yankees had the fourth highest rookie WAR in baseball in 2018.

The New Top Prospect

Up until two and a half weeks ago, the Yankees’ top prospect was LHP Justus Sheffield (season review), who pitched well with Triple-A Scranton this season and struggled during his brief MLB cameo. The Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip last month to land James Paxton, who is essentially what we all hoped Sheffield would one day become. Sheffield still has work to do with his command and that made it unlikely he would contribute to the Yankees as a starter in a significant way in 2019. It also made it easier for the win now Yankees to trade him.

With Sheffield traded the new top prospect in the organization is OF Estevan Florial and almost by default too. All those graduations and trades the last two years have thinned the farm system considerably. That is the cost of doing business. You can either have a great farm system or a great big league team. Having both at the same time is damn near impossible nowadays with the draft and international free agency spending restrictions. I will happily live with a thinned out farm system while the Yankees field a 100-win team in the Bronx.

Anyway, Florial had a difficult season in 2018. He started the year with High-A Tampa, hit .246/.353/.343 (107 wRC+) with one home run in his first 36 games, then went down with wrist surgery. Hamate bone removal sidelined him for seven weeks. Florial wrecked the rookie Gulf Coast League during his rehab assignment (.548/.600/1.000 in nine games), then managed a .263/.355/.375 (112 wRC+) line with two homers in his final 39 games with Tampa. Florial hit a weak .178/.294/.260 in 21 Arizona Fall League games after the season.

The bad news? Well, pretty much all of it. Florial needed wrist surgery and he didn’t perform all that well this season, though it is entirely possible (if not likely) the wrist injury contributed to that. He could’ve been (likely was) playing hurt before surgery, and it usually takes some time to get back to normal after wrist surgery, so yeah. The good news? Florial’s contact numbers improved:

  • 2017 in Low-A: 31.9% strikeouts and 15.2% swings and misses
  • 2018 in High-A: 25.7% strikeouts and 13.1% swings and misses

Florial also improved his walk rate as well, going from 10.5% walks in 2017 to 13.0% walks in 2018, but that doesn’t do much for me. Minor league walk rates are fickle, especially in Single-A ball, where most pitchers are control-challenged. Moving up a level and shaving more than six percentage points off your strikeout rate is not nothing though. Contact is Florial’s biggest weakness — he is a four-tool player and the one tool he lacks is the hit tool, and that is a tantalizing profile with a high bust rate — and hopefully those contact gains this year are real.

The Breakout Prospects

King. (Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

It was a good year for pitching prospects in the farm system. The Yankees don’t have a future ace in the system — there are only a handful of those guys in the minors — but they are loaded with potential starters and depth arms, among them RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (season review). Many of those pitching prospects took a step forward this season and cemented themselves as legitimate big league prospects who may not be more than a year or two away from the show.

Statistically, the biggest breakout prospect in the system this year was RHP Mike King, who came over from the Marlins in last winter’s Caleb Smith/Garrett Cooper roster shuffle trade. King rose three levels this season and finished the year with Triple-A Scranton, posting a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in a whopping 161.1 innings. King is a fastball command guy whose secondary stuff is good but not great, so he’s a stats before scouting report prospect. Still, have that much success and reach Triple-A, and you’re on the big league radar.

To me, the biggest breakout prospect in the farm system this year was RHP Deivi Garcia. The 19-year-old came into the season as a classic live arm/bad control prospect and suddenly he started throwing strikes. In 14 starts and 74 innings, mostly in Single-A but also one Double-A spot start, Garcia pitched to a 2.55 ERA (2.60 FIP) with 35.5% strikeouts and 6.8% walks. That is the fifth highest strikeout rate and fourth highest K-BB% rate among the 902 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings in the minors this year, and the best marks among teenagers.

Garcia is not the biggest guy at 5-foot-10 and 163 lbs., though he still has room to grow, and even if he can’t handle a starter’s workload long-term, his fastball/curveball combination is plenty good enough for the bullpen. He’s a high spin rate guy — the curveball has reportedly been clocked at 3,000+ rpm and that is super duper elite — and his changeup is better than you’d think. Garcia figuring out how to throw strikes this season is really exciting. This was his breakout year in the organization. Next season might be his breakout year on the global prospect map.

One of my favorite prospects in the system is RHP Roansy Contreras, a just turned 19-year-old kid who more than held his own when pushed to Low-A Charleston late in the season. Contreras had a 2.42 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 24.0% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 12 starts and 63.1 innings this season, mostly with the RiverDogs but also some with Short Season Staten Island. A teenager with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and command and pitching know-how deserves more prospect love. Roansy has a chance to be awfully good.

RHP Trevor Stephan and RHP Garrett Whitlock, two 2017 draftees, carved up Single-A hitters this summer and reached Double-A. Stephan had a 3.69 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 7.3% walks in 124.1 total innings this year. He’s a stuff guy with mid-90s gas and a hard slider. Whitlock is more of a pitchability guy with four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup). He had a 1.86 ERA (3.01 FIP) with 24.9% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 120.2 innings this year. King and Whitlock had the second lowest and fourth lowest ERAs, respectively, among the 510 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the minors this year.

Thanks to some mechanical tweaks IF Brandon Wagner swatted 21 home runs this season after hitting 19 total from 2015-17. His ground ball rates the last four years: 51.4%, 46.5%, 45.5%, 35.6%. Hmmm. Wagner was far better with High-A Tampa (.270/.376/.510 and 154 wRC+) than Double-A Trenton (.262/.290/.346 and 116 wRC+) this year, but he’s a left-handed hitter with some thump who can play first, third, and a little second. The Yankees rolled the dice and left him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft, which I don’t think is a big deal. Even if he gets picked, he’ll probably come back. I’m curious to see whether the power and air ball tendencies stick this year.

The International Arrivals

The Yankees spent a lot of money during the 2017-18 international signing period — they had some cash to spend after getting spurned by Shohei Ohtani — and they brought many of those 2017-18 international signees stateside this past season. Usually these kids spend a year cutting their teeth in the Dominican Summer League, even the high-profile ones, but not this year. The Yankees had many of them make their pro debuts in the rookie Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. That’s quite a jump.

OF Everson Pereira received a $1.5M bonus last July and the Yankees sent him right to Rookie Pulaski, where he hit .263/.322/.389 (88 wRC+) with three homers and a 32.8% strikeout rate in 41 games. The numbers are not good, obviously, but he was essentially a high school junior playing against college kids fresh out of the draft. “He doesn’t have any 70- or 80-grade tools, but some scouts were confident enough to put future plus grades on his hit, run and raw power already. They also saw a (plus) defender in center field,” said a recent Baseball America scouting report. Periera may be a year way from top 100 prospect status.

The Yankees gave OF Antonio Cabello a $1.35M bonus with their leftover Ohtani money and they immediately moved him from catcher to center field. He’s a very good runner and a good athlete, and he was rough behind the plate defensively, so it made sense to move him to center. He can be an asset out there and the bat will be ready long before his defense at catcher. Cabello hit .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) with five homers, a 20.8% strikeout rate, and a 14.8% walk rate in 46 GCL games, and his hitting acumen has drawn Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto comparisons. Huh. Cabello dislocated his non-throwing shoulder diving for a ball late in the season and needed surgery, but he’s expected back early next year. Bummer, but the tools are incredibly exciting.

OF Raimfer Salinas received $1.85M in leftover Ohtani money last year and he’s more tooled up than Cabello. He’s a standout defensive center fielder with excellent bat speed and power potential from the right side. Salinas played only eleven GCL games this year because he damaged a finger ligament on a slide, but he’ll be ready to go next year. 2B Ezequiel Duran signed for a mere $10,000 last July and he stunk with Pulaski this year, hitting .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+) with a 27.7% strikeout rate in 53 games, but he’s an exit velocity monster who’s been praised for his innate hitting ability. Duran wouldn’t be the first guy to figure it out after a poor pro debut.

OF Anthony Garcia ($500,000 bonus) is built like a tank (6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) and he led the GCL with ten homers in only 44 games this summer. He also struck out in 40.6% (!) of his plate appearances, but a switch-hitter with this kind of power? That’s worth a $500,000 roll of the dice all day, every day. SS Roberto Chirinos ($900,000) is a slick-fielding shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills. He got the bat knocked out of his hands a bit in the GCL though (.238/.289/.337 and 79 wRC+). Pereira and Salinas are 17. Cabello, Garcia, and Chirinos all recently turned 18. Duran is 19. These dudes are the next wave of top prospects, especially Pereira, Cabello, and Salinas.

The Trade Chips

Rogers. (Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

The Yankees had an active trade deadline this year and, more recently, they used Sheffield as the headliner in the Paxton trade. Also sent to Seattle were RHP Erik Swanson and OF Dom Thompson-Williams. Swanson had a 3.86 ERA (3.64 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 72.1 Triple-A innings this year and he has a classic back-end starter profile as a fastball/slider/changeup guy. Thompson-Williams became a launch angle guy this year and hit .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with 22 homers in 100 Single-A games. He hit six homers from 2016-17. Swanson’s a nice depth arm. I’m curious to see how the launch angle thing works for Thompson-Williams in Double-A this year. Both guys are nice prospects who were expendable to the Yankees.

At the actual trade deadline, the Yankees shipped three pitching prospects to the Orioles for Zach Britton: RHP Cody Carroll, LHP Josh Rogers, and RHP Dillon Tate (season reviews). Tate is easily the best prospect of the three and he still has work to do to refine his command. He had a 3.38 ERA (3.78 FIP) before the trade and a 5.75 ERA (4.14 FIP) after the trade, all in the Double-A Eastern League. Being a pitcher in need of development in the Orioles system is a bad place to be. Poor Dillon. OF Billy McKinney (season review) was sent to the Blue Jays in the J.A. Happ trade along with Brandon Drury. He hit .226/.299/.495 (120 wRC+) with Triple-A Scranton before the trade while repeating the level. Eh.

In late August the Yankees used IF Abi Avelino and RHP Juan De Paula to get Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. Avelino bounced between Double-A and Triple-A for the second straight season and hit .287/.333/.446 (117 wRC+) with 15 homers in 123 games before the trade, which represents the best season of his career. Avelino is a classic utility type who went 3-for-11 (.273) as a September call-up with San Francisco. De Paula had a 1.71 ERA (3.46 FIP) with 23.4% strikeouts in 47.1 innings before the trade. He repeated Short Season Staten Island as a 21-year-old, which was kinda weird to me. I get the feeling the Yankees were down on the kid, which probably led to the trade.

The Yankees turned longtime organizational arm LHP Caleb Frare into international bonus money in a trade with the White Sox in July. The 25-year-old had a 0.81 ERA (2.23 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 8.6% walks in 44.2 relief innings, almost all at Double-A before the trade, then he struck out nine in seven innings as a September call-up with Chicago. Good for him. Oft-injured RHP Drew Finley went to the Dodgers for Tim Locastro a few weeks ago. Finley’s father works in Los Angeles’ front office, so the trade is something of a homecoming for him.

Aside from Tate, the best prospect the Yankees traded at the deadline this year is little known RHP Luis Rijo. He went to the Twins in the Lance Lynn trade with Tyler Austin. The 20-year-old had a 2.77 ERA (2.50 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 39 innings before the trade and a 1.27 ERA (3.85 FIP) with 20.5% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 21.1 innings after the trade, all in short season leagues. Rijo is a fastball/curveball/changeup guy and Baseball America recently said “his tremendous feel for locating the baseball should give him a chance to become a backend starter.” Having a multitude of Luis Rijos in the system to use as trade deadline fodder is an underrated strength of the farm system. The Yankees are loaded with these guys.

The Busted Prospects

“Busted” is probably too harsh here, but, as always, several prospects in the system had tough 2018 seasons. There are always going to be injuries and poor performances. That’s baseball. RHP Freicer Perez struggled in six starts with High-A Tampa (21 runs and 19 walks in 25 innings) before having season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder. The good news is his rotator cuff and labrum (and capsule) were not damaged. The bad news is 2018 was a lost season for Perez, one of the better pitching prospects in the system.

RHP Albert Abreu, the best right-handed pitching prospect in the system coming into the season, missed more time with elbow problems and posted a 5.20 ERA (4.75 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 72.2 innings at mostly High-A. Abreu has really good stuff — it’s an upper-90s fastball with a knockout curveball — but he’s thrown only 126 innings in two years since coming over in the Brian McCann trade, and we’ve yet to see him truly dominant for an extended period of time. Abreu has ability but he’s just kinda spinning his wheels right now.

RHP Luis Medina stayed healthy all season but lordy was it bad. The 19-year-old threw 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski and pitched to a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 25.5% strikeouts and 25.0% walks. That is 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. Yuuup. Medina’s stuff is electric — it’s a Dellin Betances caliber fastball and breaking ball — and he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization. But the poor kid has no idea where the ball is going right now. Like Dellin, he’s gonna be a long-term project.

The two best middle infield prospects in the organization, SS Thairo Estrada and SS Kyle Holder, had brutal seasons. Estrada got shot during a robbery in January and also battled wrist and back trouble during the season. He was limited to 18 regular season games and had the bullet removed from his hip in June. Thairo did heal up in time to play in the Arizona Fall League. Holder fractured a vertebrae in Spring Training and missed two months, and then missed three weeks with a concussion later in the season. He also went home for two weeks at midseason after his brother passed away. Holder played 48 games this year.

3B Dermis Garcia continued to flash big power (15 homers in 88 Low-A games) and big swing-and-miss issues (30.6% strikeouts), and the Yankees had him throw some bullpen sessions to see how he looked on the mound. Dermis never did appear in a game as a pitcher though. SS Hoy Jun Park had a much better season that you may realize — he hit .258/.387/.349 (122 wRC+) with 18 steals and nearly as many walks (16.2%) as strikeouts (16.4%) in 103 High-A games — but the Yankees are still waiting for the $1.2M bonus kid to take that big step forward developmentally.

RHP Chance Adams (season review) underwhelmed while repeating Triple-A (4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP) and is at something of a career crossroads. Early next season might be his last chance to prove he can hack it as a starter. The Yankees have kept him at arm’s length thus far — his lone big league start was an emergency spot start when Happ went down with hand, foot, and mouth disease. RHP Domingo Acevedo (season review) again battled injuries and was limited to 69.1 innings.

Other Notable Prospects

Almost exactly one year to the day after being selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, RHP Clarke Schmidt completed his Tommy John surgery rehab and made his pro debut. He managed a 3.09 ERA (2.61 FIP) with 33.0% strikeouts and 6.6% walks in 23.1 closely monitored innings in his return, and by all accounts his stuff looked pretty good. Like his pre-Tommy John surgery stuff, basically. Schmidt’s season came to an end in late August with what has been reported as a non-arm injury. Not sure what’s going on there.

RHP Matt Sauer, last year’s second round pick, had a weird season with Short Season Staten Island, statistically. He threw more strikes than I expected (6.4% walks) and missed way fewer bats than I expected (15.9% strikeouts and 7.1% swings and misses). The Yankees helped Sauer improve his delivery and tempo and it’s possible this year’s statistical weirdness can be attributed to him adjusting to his new mechanics. I dunno. We’ll see what happens next year.

RHP Nick Green is one of my favorite prospects in the system. I find him fascinating. He has this funky cutter/sinker hybrid fastball that helped him lead the minors with a 66.4% ground ball rate (min. 130 IP) by nearly five percentage points this season. Green doesn’t have much else to work with aside from the, uh, cut-sinker (?), but if you’re only going to have one pitch, a dominant ground ball (cut-)sinker is a good pitch to have. Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

Easy to overlook in the pitching ranks is RHP Nick Nelson, who quietly sits in the mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball and features a hammer power curveball. This season he threw 121.1 innings, mostly at High-A Tampa, with a 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) and high walk (12.1%) and strikeout (27.5%) rates. Nelson had the 37th most strikeouts (144) and also the 27th most walks (63) in the minors this year. I’m not sure the control or third pitch will ever be there for him to start long-term. I sure am interested to see what Nelson can do in short one-inning relief bursts though.

OF Isiah Gilliam might belong in the “Busted Prospects” section — again, “busted” may be too harsh — after hitting .256/.313/.397 (103 wRC+) with 13 homers in 125 High-A games this year. He had a 137 wRC+ with 21.7% strikeouts and 10.8% walks in Low-A last season. This season it was a 103 wRC+ with 29.0% strikeouts and 6.9% walks in High-A. SS Diego Castillo didn’t hit much with High-A Tampa (.260/.307/.324 and 83 wRC+) but he makes a ton of contact (9.1% strikeouts and 6.1% swings and misses) and can play the hell out of shortstop. I hope the bat catches up to the glove soon.

RHP Luis Gil and RHP Juan Then are on opposite ends of the pitching prospect spectrum in terms of style. Gil is a straight grip it and rip it guy who touched 101 mph this season and registers strong spin rates on his curveball. The 20-year-old struck out 68 batters in 46 short season innings this year. He also walked 31. Then, 18, already has three good pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and a plan on the mound. The kid is 6-foot-1 and 155 lbs. right now and the Yankees are hoping his low-90s heater becomes a mid-to-upper-90s heater as he matures. Then had a 2.70 ERA (3.22 FIP) with 21.5% strikeouts and 5.6% walks in 50 GCL innings in 2018.

RHP Stephen Tarpley (season review) led the minors with a 68.1% ground ball rate (min. 65 IP) this season and earned himself both a September call-up and a spot on the ALDS roster. RHP Joe Harvey was untouchable as Triple-A Scranton’s closer this year, pitching to a 1.66 ERA (2.49 FIP) with 28.5% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 54.1 innings for the RailRiders. The Yankees added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft last month. We’re going to see these two dudes in the big league bullpen next year, even if they’re only shuttle guys.

The 2018 Draft

Last season’s 91-71 record gave the Yankees the 23rd overall pick in the 2018 draft, which they used on C Anthony Seigler (prospect profile). He’s the best prospect the Yankees drafted this year (duh) followed by second rounder C Josh Breaux (prospect profile) and fourth rounder RHP Frank German (prospect profile). Here are my Day One, Day Two, and Day Three draft recaps.

Among the late round picks, RHP Rodney Hutchison (sixth round) created some buzz right before the draft because his fastball ticked up and he showed an improved slider. He had a 1.97 ERA (3.02 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.4%), walk (4.7%), and ground ball (64.4%) rates in 32 innings with Short Season Staten Island in his pro debut. RHP Tanner Myatt (11th round) opened some eyes with his 97-99 mph heater and hard slider after turning pro. He struck out 22 in 18.1 mostly rookie ball innings.

While the high picks like Seigler and Breaux get all the attention and understandably so — my money is on Seigler being the consensus No. 1 prospect in the system at this time next year — the late rounds are where the Yankees have built their farm system depth. Guys like Rogers (11th), Whitlock (18th round), and Carroll (22nd round) were all unheralded Day Three picks in recent years who developed into solid prospects and, in Rogers’ and Carroll’s case, trade chips. A year from now we might be talking about Hutchison and Myatt as the next late round success stories.

The Best of the Rest

The Yankees have more minor leaguers under contract that any other team. That doesn’t necessarily mean they have more prospects. It just means they have more minor leaguers. As J.J. Cooper explained in August, the Yankees have nine minor league affiliates and thus can have roughly 340 players under contract. Most other organizations only have six or seven minor league affiliates, and can carry around 290 contracts. Those extra 50 (!) roster spots mean the Yankees have more innings and at-bats to play with, and more spots for lottery tickets.

Although the farm system isn’t nearly as robust now as it was a year or two ago, the Yankees do still have a pretty deep system, especially in arms. Here are the last few notables worth mentioning as part of our farm system review:

  • OF Trey Amburgey: Righty hitter and thrower has some pop and authored an underwhelming .258/.300/.418 (97 wRC+) line with Double-A Trenton this year.
  • SS Oswaldo Cabrera: The tools are all there but the production is not. Cabrera hit .229/.273/.320 (70 wRC+) with a 12.5% strikeout rate with Low-A Charleston this year.
  • RHP Rony Garcia: Cutter specialist reached High-A at age 20 this year and posted solid strikeout (21.0%) and walk (5.5%) rates in 119 innings. Deivi pulled away as the system’s best Garcia though.
  • RHP Yoendrys Gomez: Mid-90s fastball and a rainbow curveball produced a 2.08 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 25.8% strikeouts in 47.2 rookie ball innings this summer. Someone to watch.
  • RHP Nolan Martinez: Finally stayed healthy and threw 61.2 innings with 3.36 ERA (4.19 FIP) this year. He threw 20.2 innings total from 2016-17. Next year will be a big one.
  • OF Pablo Olivares: Personal favorite hit .322/.391/.442 (142 wRC+) in 70 Single-A games before an unknown injury ended his season in July. That’s too bad.
  • RHP Glenn Otto: Last year’s fifth rounder showed a dynamite fastball/curveball combination in his two starts before needing season-ending surgery to treat a blood clot in his shoulder.
  • OF Alex Palma: Built on last year’s breakout with a .299/.348/.459 (132 wRC+) line in 52 High-A games. He suffered a season-ending injury in an outfield collision in July.

I’m looking forward to full seasons of Gomez and Martinez next year and I want to see how Olivares, Otto, and Palma rebound from their injuries. Especially Otto and especially especially Olivares. He’s not a star prospect like the stat line would lead you to believe, but he can do everything well. Just a solid all-around ballplayer. Had he not gotten hurt, the 20-year-old Olivares might’ve finished the season in Double-A and been added to the 40-man roster after the season. Instead, the Yankees are gambling no team will take an injured Single-A outfielder in the Rule 5 Draft.

What’s Next?

As was the case last year, the farm system now is worse than it was in March, and for good reason. The Yankees graduated two high-end prospects to the big leagues in Torres and Andujar, and they used several others in trades, most notably Sheffield and Tate. If the farm system is going to take a hit, you want it to take a hit because guys are graduating and being traded for MLB help, and that’s what happened with the Yankees.

Barring a fire sale — the Yankees might get prospects for Sonny Gray but otherwise they aren’t selling veterans anytime soon — it is awfully tough for the Yankees to build a farm system now. They have back of the first round draft picks (30th overall in 2019) and the draft and international spending restrictions level the playing field. The Yankees added some very exciting international kids (Pereira, Cabello) and new draftees (Seigler) to the system this year. It’ll take a year or two before they develop into foundational prospects, however. Fortunately the farm system has already done its part strengthening the MLB team.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: 2018 Season Review, Abi Avelino, Albert Abreu, Alex Palma, Anthony Garcia, Anthony Seigler, Antonio Cabello, Brandon Wagner, Caleb Frare, Clarke Schmidt, Cody Carroll, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Dillon Tate, Dom Thompson-Williams, Drew Finley, Erik Swanson, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Ezequiel Duran, Frank German, Freicer Perez, Garrett Whitlock, Glenn Otto, Hoy Jun Park, Isiah Gilliam, Joe Harvey, Josh Breaux, Josh Rogers, Juan De Paula, Juan Then, Kyle Holder, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Luis Rijo, Matt Sauer, Mike King, Nick Green, Nick Nelson, Nolan Martinez, Oswaldo Cabrera, Pablo Olivares, Raimfer Salinas, Roansy Contreras, Roberto Chirinos, Rodney Hutchison, Rony Garcia, Tanner Myatt, Thairo Estrada, Trevor Stephan, Trey Amburgey, Yoendrys Gomez

Yankees acquire James Paxton for Justus Sheffield, two others

November 19, 2018 by Mike

(Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

The rotation was always going to be a priority this offseason and the Yankees have added one of the better lefties in the game. The Yankees have acquired James Paxton from the Mariners for top prospect Justus Sheffield and prospects Erik Swanson and Dom Thompson-Williams, both teams announced. It is a done deal. Officially official.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto indicated the team is ready to rebuild a few weeks ago — his term was “re-imagine” the roster — and soon thereafter he shipped Mike Zunino to the Rays. The Paxton rumors started up soon thereafter and the Yankees were a logical landing spot given their need for rotation help and the perpetual need for quality lefties in Yankee Stadium.

“I’m just honored to get a chance to be a Yankee and be a part of the great history and commitment to winning there.,” said Paxton on a conference call this evening. “I couldn’t be more excited about it. It’s going to be a fantastic opportunity in New York, always expecting to win, the way I do. I’m looking forward to being a part of a fantastic team.”

Paxton turned 30 earlier this month and he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA (3.24 FIP) with 32.3% strikeouts and 6.5% walks this past season. He is under control as an arbitration-eligible player another two years — MLBTR projects a $9M salary in 2019 and that’ll probably jump to $15M or so in 2020 — so he’s not a rental. He’s not dirt cheap, but he’s not a rental.

Here’s my Scouting the Market post on Paxton, so check that out for everything you need to know about that guy. Long story short, he’s really good and he throws a lot of fastballs. The Yankees are an anti-fastball team, but, given the way the Yankees treated J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn last year, I imagine they’ll continue letting Paxton throw all those fastballs. That’s how he gets his outs. No need to change.

The Yankees now have four starters penciled in for next season: Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and CC Sabathia in whatever order. Sonny Gray is still on the roster but he is as good as gone. He’s getting traded, maybe soon. Their rotation depth is Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams. There’s still a lot of offseason to go, however.

Even with Paxton and his projected salary on board, the Yankees have about $25M remaining under next year’s $206M luxury tax threshold. That is roughly the annual of cost of one (1) Patrick Corbin. Also, depending how the Gray trade works out, the Yankees may free up $9M or so in that deal. We’ll see. Right now, the Yankees still have some money to spend and one rotation spot to address, plus other stuff (Didi Gregorius replacement, bullpen etc.).

As for the players going to Seattle, Sheffield is clearly the headliner. He took over as the organization’s obvious No. 1 prospect once Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar graduated to MLB, and MLB.com currently ranks him as the 31st best prospect in baseball. The Yankees originally acquired Sheffield from the Indians in the Andrew Miller trade back in 2016. More than two years ago already? Geez.

(Presswire)

Sheffield, 22, had a 2.48 ERA (2.98 FIP) with 25.9% strikeouts and 10.5% walks in 116 innings across Double-A and Triple-A this past season. He made his MLB debut in September and it didn’t go well (2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K) but who cares. Countless pitchers have struggled in their first 2.2 big league innings. Sheffield’s a great prospect, but you have to give something good to get a guy like Paxton.

The 25-year-old Swanson came over in the Carlos Beltran trade and MLB.com ranked him as the No. 22 prospect in the system before the trade. I haven’t started sketching out my annual top 30 prospects list yet but Swanson would’ve made it, likely somewhere in that 20-25 range. He threw 121.1 innings with a 2.66 ERA (2.91 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 6.1% walks at mostly Triple-A this year.

Thompson-Williams, 23, was the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2016. He broke out this past season, hitting .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with a farm system leading 22 home runs in 100 Single-A games. Thompson-Williams hit six homers in 120 games from 2016-17. He didn’t rank among the team’s top 30 prospects before the trade, per MLB.com. I don’t think I would’ve had him in next year’s preseason top 30 but it’s hard to say for sure at this point.

On the 40-man roster front, the Yankees will end up saving a spot here. Paxton takes Sheffield’s spot and Swanson is Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, and I imagine he would’ve been added to the 40-man prior to tomorrow’s protection deadline. A big league ready (or close to it) pitcher with those Triple-A numbers is an obvious protection candidate. Now the Yankees won’t have to add him to the 40-man.

I’m not going to lie, I thought it would be much more painful to acquire Paxton. It’s one top prospect and two depth prospects, basically. Last year’s Gerrit Cole trade, which was much more quantity over quality, may’ve skewed the trade market a bit. Cole and Paxton both had two years of control at the time of their trades and neither fetched multiple top prospects. My first thought after seeing both trades was “wow, that’s light.”

Paxton has hardly been a workhorse in his career — he’s never thrown as many as 175 innings in a season and only three times has he thrown 160 innings — but the innings he does provide tend to be very good. The Yankees needed a major upgrade to their rotation, not a few tweaks, and Paxton does represent that big upgrade. Or at least I hope he does. Getting Sonny Grayed again would stink.

Filed Under: Transactions Tagged With: Dom Thompson-Williams, Erik Swanson, James Paxton, Justus Sheffield, Seattle Mariners

Sunday Links: Kikuchi, Acevedo, AzFL, King, Judge

September 30, 2018 by Mike

Kikuchi. (Kyodo News)

The Yankees and Red Sox close out their 2018 regular seasons with their three-game series finale later today. Every game across the league starts at 3pm ET today. There are some great postseason races in the National League. American League? Not so much. I’m looking forward to one last stress-free game. Here are some notes to check out prior to today’s season finale.

Yankees scouting Kikuchi

According to Jim Allen, the Yankees were among the teams with a scout(s) on hand to watch Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi during his most recent start. Kikuchi, 27, has a 3.08 ERA with 153 strikeouts in 163.2 innings for the Seibu Lions this season. He’s been among the best pitchers in Japan the last few years. The Lions are expected to post Kikuchi for MLB teams this offseason.

I wrote about Kikuchi and the Yankees back in April. His stuff is legit. He has a qualify fastball and a wide array of secondary pitches. The biggest concern with Kikuchi is a history of arm problems. That doesn’t automatically disqualify him as a possible offseason target. It’s just something that has to be considered. The Yankees have two starters in place for next season (Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka) and I’d bet the farm on CC Sabathia returning. Kikuchi could be a candidate to fill one of the other two rotation spots.

Acevedo removed from AzFL roster

Right-hander Domingo Acevedo has been removed from the Glendale Desert Dogs roster and will not pitch in the Arizona Fall League this year, the league announced. No reason was given but I assume it is injury related. Acevedo was placed on the disabled list with a biceps injury — his second biceps injury of 2018 — at the very end of the minor league season. Injuries limited him to 69.1 innings this season.

The Yankees had an open AzFL roster spot to fill — I have no idea whether that spot is a pitcher spot or position player spot — and now they have to fill Acevedo’s spot as well. I wonder if this opens the door for Jonathan Loaisiga to go to the AzFL to make up for the innings he lost to shoulder inflammation earlier this season. Loaisiga has thrown only 78.2 innings this year and he’s been sitting in the bullpen as a September call-up these last few weeks. The Yankees might not want to throw him to the wolves in the historically hitter friendly AzFL without being properly stretched out.

King among top Eastern League prospects

Baseball America (subs. req’d) continued their look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league earlier this week with the Double-A Eastern League. Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. predictably claims the top spot. He is the top prospect in baseball. Righty Mike King is the only Yankees prospect on the list. He ranks 18th. Here’s a snippet of the scouting report:

He’s lauded internally for the extraordinary amount of work he puts into every start, which has helped him game plan opposing hitters all year long … He starts by commanding a pair of average 89-93 mph fastballs to both sides of the plate and backs it up with a slider and changeup that can generate swings and misses … Because he’s jumped so quickly this year, scouts are understandably hesitant about his future role, with most seeing him as a possible No. 5 starter.

In the chat (subs. req’d), Josh Norris notes righty Erik Swanson showed well this year, though he didn’t throw enough innings with Double-A Trenton to qualify for the Eastern League top 20 list. “(Swanson) saw particular results because of the way his fastball carried through the zone. He also got better at commanding his entire arsenal and made progress with his changeup,” says the write-up. King is not yet Rule 5 Draft eligible. I’m curious to see whether Swanson gets added to the 40-man roster.

Judge has MLB’s highest selling jersey (again)

For the second straight season, Aaron Judge has the highest selling jersey in baseball. MLB and the MLBPA jointly announced their annual most popular player jerseys list earlier this week — that is based on sales at MLB.com’s online shop — and it is dominated by young players. Here’s the press release and here’s the top five:

  1. Aaron Judge, Yankees
  2. Jose Altuve, Astros
  3. Javier Baez, Cubs
  4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
  5. Mookie Betts, Red Sox

Giancarlo Stanton is ninth on the list, one spot behind Shohei Ohtani. I’d love to see the numbers on these jersey sales. Anecdotally, it seems to me there are more Judge jerseys and shirts in the stands these days than any other player since Derek Jeter retired. Jeter always dominated the jersey and shirt scene. Feels like Judge is right up there with him now.

Filed Under: International Free Agents, Minors, News Tagged With: Aaron Judge, Arizona Fall League, Domingo Acevedo, Erik Swanson, Mike King, Prospect Lists, Yusei Kikuchi

DotF: Scranton advances to IL Championship Series for third straight season

September 8, 2018 by Mike

Two quick roster notes now that Double-A Trenton has been eliminated from the postseason, leaving Triple-A Scranton as the only affiliate still playing:

  • RHP Erik Swanson was removed from the Triple-A postseason roster and placed on the disabled list with a groin injury, reports DJ Eberle. RHP Domingo German takes his place. German is still working his way back from a nerve issue and was MIA for a bit after High-A Tampa’s season ended last weekend. Now he’s with the RailRiders.
  • SS Kyle Holder has moved up from Trenton to Scranton, according to Conor Foley. I had a feeling that was coming. Said so last night. Holder has not been added to the active roster yet. He’s with the team in more of an emergency capacity right now.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (7-2 win over Lehigh Valley in ten innings) they won the best-of-three first round postseason series three games to one … they’ve advanced to the International League Championship Series for the third consecutive season … they’ll face Durham (Rays) when that series begins Tuesday night

1. LF Mark Payton: 0-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP
2. SS Rey Navarro: 2-5, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 K — went 6-for-14 (.429) in the series … the Yankees signed him out of an independent league as a roster filler earlier this summer
3. 3B Gio Urshela: 1-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB — he went 5-for-13 (.385) in the series
4. 1B Ryan McBroom: 1-4, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K — drove in the go-ahead run with a swinging bunt grounder in the tenth
5. DH Mike Ford: 0-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K — he went 2-for-13 (.154) in the series … the RailRiders will need more from their best power bat in the Championship Series to win
6. RF Zack Zehner: 1-4 — threw a runner out at first
PR-RF Quintin Berry: 0-1, 1 R, 1 K — pinch-ran for Zehner in the ninth and scored the game-tying run from second base on an infield single
7. 2B L.J. Mazzilli: 0-3, 2 K
PH-2B Bruce Caldwell: 1-2, 1 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI — swatted the insurance grand slam in the tenth
8. CF Shane Robinson: 1-5, 1 RBI — he went 2-for-16 (.125) in the series
9. C Francisco Diaz: 1-4, 1 R
RHP Mike King: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 9/1 GB/FB — 64 of 98 pitches were strikes (65%) … if this was his final start of the year, he finishes with a 1.82 ERA and 160/30 K/BB in 168 total innings
RHP Raynel Espinal: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1/2 GB/FB — 14 of 22 pitches were strikes (64%)
RHP Joe Harvey: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 1/1 GB/FB — eleven of 16 pitches were strikes

The season is over for the Double-A Trenton Thunder, the High-A Tampa Tarpons, the Low-A Charleston RiverDogs, the Short Season Staten Island Yankees, the Rookie Pulaski Yankees, and the two Rookie GCL Yankees affiliates. Trenton was swept in their best-of-five first round postseason series. None of the other teams affiliates qualified for the postseason.

Filed Under: Down on the Farm Tagged With: Domingo German, Erik Swanson

Previewing the Yankees’ crop of potential September call-ups

August 23, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Sheffield. (Times Leader)

In one week and two days all 30 MLB teams will be able to expand their active roster from 25 players to 40 players. Most teams wind up carrying 30-35 players in September. September call-ups have become somewhat controversial but I am 100% for them. I explained why a few years ago. It seems likely the rules will change at some point in the future. Right now, the rules are what they are, and teams can have 40 active players on their roster as of next Saturday.

In recent years the Yankees have been a very aggressive September call-up team. They tend to call up lots of players and they call them up early. Some teams only add a third catcher and an extra reliever on September 1st. Not the Yankees. They go all out. Last year they called up five players on September 1st. The year before it was seven players on September 1st. The year before that? Eight players on September 1st. I expect lots of September 1st call-ups again.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a moment to sort through the team’s September call-up options and figure out where each player fits, if at all. Some call-ups are kept around for emergencies only. Spare long relievers and a third catcher, guys like that. Others are brought up for a specific reason or to fill a specific role. Let’s get to it.

Injured Players

Might as well start here. The Yankees have lots of players on the disabled list right now and sometimes, rather conveniently, players will get healthy on September 1st. That happened with Matt Holliday last year. He was on the disabled list with a back issue and was activated on the first day rosters expanded. Funny how that works.

Aaron Judge (wrist) and Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) are both making progress but it seems very unlikely either will be ready to return next Saturday. Gary Sanchez, however, will begin a minor league rehab assignment either today or tomorrow. He’s going to play a few games in the rookie Gulf Coast League before joining Triple-A Scranton for what Aaron Boone called a “week’s worth of games.” Sure seems like Gary will return on September 1st.

Didi Gregorius is eligible to be activated next Thursday and it’s unclear right now whether he’ll be ready to be activated that day. The Yankees said they have to see how his heel responds the next few days before knowing when he’ll return. If Gregorius is ready to go Thursday, would the Yankees give him the proverbial two extra days and wait until Saturday to activate him? I don’t think so, but you never know. It would be quite easy to give Didi those two extra days to make sure he’s 100% ready to go.

Aroldis Chapman landed on the disabled list yesterday and he isn’t even eligible to be activated until next Saturday, so even if he comes back after the minimum ten days, he’ll return with expanded rosters. That makes life easy. Whenever Chapman is healthy, the Yankees will activate him and add him to the roster. They won’t have to send someone else down to accommodate him.

The Up & Down Guys

Okay, let’s get to the minor leaguers. Generally speaking, the first wave of September call-ups — those are the September 1st guys — are players who have been going up and down all year. Many of them are already in the big leagues because of the injuries though. Tommy Kahnle, Ronald Torreyes, Luke Voit … they’re with the Yankees now. If I’d written this post a week ago, those three would’ve been identified as September 1st call-ups.

There are two up-and-down guys in Triple-A right now: Tyler Wade and Luis Cessa. I expect both to come up on September 1st. Wade to give the Yankees another bench player (a four-man bench? madness!) and Cessa to be another long man and occasional spot starter. The only thing with Cessa is that he might come up as the 26th man for Saturday’s doubleheader game in Baltimore. If he does, he has to go back down after the game, then he’ll have to wait ten days to be called back up. The ten-day rules means Cessa won’t be eligible to be called back up until September 4th. Point is, as soon as he’s eligible, I think Cessa comes up.

40-Man Guys Who Might Have To Wait

At the moment the Yankees have five healthy players on the 40-man roster and in the minors: Cessa, Wade, Albert Abreu, Ryan Bollinger, and Chris Rabago. I am fairly certain Chance Adams will be sent down tomorrow when CC Sabathia is activated — Adams threw 46 ineffective pitches last night and I don’t see the Yankees keeping him around when Sabathia returns — so it’s really six healthy players on the 40-man and in the minors.

Abreu is a Single-A pitcher who’s thrown 62.2 innings around injuries this year. There is no reason to call him up in September only to have him sit in the bullpen as the 38th or 39th or 40th guy on the roster. Abreu needs to pitch. He needs to spend September in Instructional League in Tampa. That’s the best thing for his development. Rabago was claimed on waivers yesterday and is a light-hitting Double-A catcher. He’s not a call-up candidate. He’s a guy who gets dropped from the 40-man roster when a spot is needed.

Bollinger has had two one-day stints with the Yankees as an emergency arm this year and I don’t think he’s getting a September call-up. He is much more likely to be dropped from the 40-man roster to clear a spot for someone else. Bollinger is not even in Triple-A. He’s a 27-year-old journeyman with a 4.03 ERA (3.42 FIP) in 91.2 Double-A innings. Those two call-ups were “we need a warm body” call-ups, not “we like this guy” call-ups. Sorry, Ryan.

Adams. (Presswire)

As for Adams, assuming he is sent down for Sabathia, he will be back in September for sure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees leave him in Triple-A until Scranton’s season is over though. They might not make the postseason, so it might be over soon, but if they do make the postseason, Adams could be part of the rotation. Remember, when the Yankees called Adams up for that spot start a few weeks ago, it was only because Cessa was unavailable. Letting Adams pitch in Triple-A through the end of their season seems like the way to go.

The Yankees have three injured minor league pitchers on the 40-man roster right now: Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. All three recently started pitching in rehab games but might not be ready to come up on September 1st. I think German comes up right away, as soon as he’s deemed fit for MLB. Acevedo and Loaisiga need innings and I expect both to stay with Double-A Trenton through the postseason. (Trenton is definitely going to the postseason.) German comes up as soon as he’s healthy. Acevedo and Loaisiga are probably going to have to wait.

Non-40-Man Roster Players

The shift to the bullpen earlier this week all but confirmed Justus Sheffield will be called up in September. The Yankees say they are going to give him 3-4 relief appearances in Triple-A — that suggests he could be a September 1st call-up — to prepare him for bullpen work in the big leagues. A September call-up has felt inevitable for weeks now. Now we know it’ll happen, and we know Sheffield will work out of the bullpen.

“We’re starting to transition him to the bullpen so that hopefully he can get a couple of outings under his belt down there, and then play a part with us in our ‘pen down the stretch,” said Boone after the Sheffield move was announced. “We think there’s some great value he could bring.”

Sheffield is getting called up in September. Stephen Tarpley might as well. Brian Cashman mentioned the southpaw by name last week when discussing call-up candidates. Tarpley has been excellent this year — his 71.0% ground ball rate leads affiliated baseball — and he’ll almost certainly be added to the 40-man roster after the season to avoid Rule 5 Draft exposure. I think he’ll get added to the 40-man in September and called up. Will he pitch? Probably in mop-up duty only, and that’s fine. Countless relievers broke in as September mop-up guys.

There are three other non-40-man players who I think I have a chance to be called up in September: George Kontos, Erik Swanson, and Gio Urshela. I don’t see guys like Mike Ford or Ryan McBroom or Abi Avelino getting called up. Avelino is the only real prospect of the bunch and he’s a fringe guy who might not get a 40-man spot after the season. Injuries could always force a call-up. I just don’t see the Yankees creating 40-man space to call those guys up though.

My hunch is George Kontos will be a September 1st call-up guy. I thought it was pretty weird a guy with his track record and service time accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A when he was designated for assignment last week. Usually a guy in his spot elects free agency and finds a team with a better shot at MLB playing time. Seems like their might’ve been an “accept the outright, go to Triple-A for two weeks, and we’ll call you up on September 1st” conversation at some point.

Urshela. (Jason Farmer/Scranton Times Tribune)

Urshela is an interesting case. The Yankees got him in a cash trade earlier this month and he’s played well with Triple-A Scranton, hitting .310/.333/.483 in 16 games. He’s a fantastic gloveman who would be a great defensive replacement for Miguel Andujar. How many infielders do the Yankees want to carry though? They’ll already have Wade and Ronald Torreyes on the September bench, plus Neil Walker could always play the infield as well. The x-factor here might be whether the Yankees want to keep Urshela for next year. Add him to the 40-man, play him in September, keep him over the winter, then bring him to camp next year? Hmmm.

Swanson? I think he’ll fall victim to the numbers crunch. Cashman did mention him by name along with Tarpley last week, but Swanson has already thrown a career high 109.1 innings this year, and the Yankees are already set to carry several spare September long men (Cessa, German, eventually Loaisiga). Do they need another one? Do they want to clear a 40-man spot to carry another one? I don’t think so. Either way, Swanson figures to stay in Triple-A through the postseason before being called up, if he is called up at all.

As for 40-man space, the Yankees are full after claiming Rabago yesterday. Both he and Bollinger can easily be dropped to open space though. Is Clint Frazier a 60-day DL candidate at this point? The Yankees could call up the injured Thairo Estrada and put him on the 60-day DL to clear another spot. That means giving Thairo a month of big league pay and service time, but that’s not a huge deal. They’ve done it before. Looks to me the Yankees have three easily available 40-man spots (Sheffield, Tarpley, Kontos?), and possibly a fourth if Frazier is indeed a 60-day DL guy.

What About A Designated Pinch-Runner?

Contending teams will often call up a crazy fast guy specifically to pinch-run and sometimes that guy winds up on the postseason roster too. Two years ago the Yankees made a minor trade for Eric Young Jr. to be their designated pinch-runner. Remember Rico Noel in 2015? Heck, Freddy Guzman was on the 2009 postseason roster as the pinch-runner. He pinch-ran twice in the team’s 15 postseason games.

Last year the Yankees did not acquire a designated pinch-runner. Why? Because they had Jacoby Ellsbury on the bench, and also Wade, who is fast as hell. Shane Robinson can also run. I don’t think the Yankees will trade for a Young or Noel or Guzman type this year, even with Ellsbury injured. I think they’ll use Wade as their primary pinch-runner with Robinson the secondary option. Never say never. Trading for a dude to pinch-run just seems so unlikely this year.

What About The Luxury Tax?

September call-ups of course count against the luxury tax payroll. Every player on the active roster or big league disabled list counts. Based on my last estimate, the Yankees have about $3.3M in wiggle room under the $197M luxury tax threshold. That number is probably closer to $2.8M or $2.9M now because the Yankees have had to call up injury replacements the last few weeks, but still, that’s plenty.

Just consider the “worst” case September call-up scenario. Say the Yankees call up the maximum 15 players on September 1st and they’re all making $600,000 at the MLB level. That is $3,225.81 per day per player. Call it $3,300 to make the math easy. Fifteen players times 30 days in September (the season ends September 30th) times $3,300 per day equals $1.485M added to the luxury tax payroll. That fits within the team’s available payroll, and remember, this is a very conservative example. Fifteen players making $600,000? Not happening. The luxury tax won’t be an issue for September call-ups.

* * *

Now that I think about it, I don’t expect Acevedo to get a September call-up. He did spend one day in the big leagues earlier this year, but that was an emergency situation. Injuries have limited Acevedo 63.2 innings this season — he threw a career high 133 innings last year — and the Yankees may rather send him to Instructional League so he can actually pitch. Acevedo would be what, the 15th option out of the bullpen in September? Yeah, I think he gets a call-up.

Okay, so based on all that, here are the call-ups I expect to happen in September:

  • September 1st: Cessa (September 4th?), Kontos, Sheffield, Wade
  • Called up/activated once healthy: Chapman, German, Gregorius, Sanchez
  • Called up after minor league seasons ends: Adams, Loaisiga, Tarpley

Not including the injured big leaguers, that is eight players added to the roster in September. Judge and hopefully Frazier will be activated at some point as well. So that’s eight minor league call-ups (Adams, Cessa, German, Kontos, Loaisiga, Sheffield, Tarpley, Wade) and five injury activations (Chapman, Frazier, Gregorius, Judge, Sanchez), giving the team 13 additional players in September and a 38-man roster.

Urshela is the wildcard here, moreso than Swanson. I don’t expect the Yankees to open up a 40-man spot to carry yet another pitcher in September. (Another pitcher who doesn’t figure to pitch much.) Urshela would be a high-end defensive caddy for Andujar and another warm body for mass substitutions in blowouts. The Yankees will need 40-man spots for Kontos, Sheffield, and Tarpley. If they open another one, I think it goes to Urshela. Another pitcher is overkill, even in September.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: Albert Abreu, Aroldis Chapman, Chance Adams, Chris Rabago, Didi Gregorius, Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, Erik Swanson, Gary Sanchez, George Kontos, Gio Urshela, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, Luis Cessa, Ryan Bollinger, Stephen Tarpley, Tyler Wade

DotF: Duran, Pereira, Duran make 2018 debuts in Pulaski’s win

June 19, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Couple quick notes to get us started:

  • Good report from Kiley McDaniel on RHP Roansy Contreras’ season debut the other day. He says the 18-year-old was 94-97 mph with his heater, with a slider that flashed 60 and a changeup that flashed 50 on the 20-80 scouting scale. That’s an above-average fastball, a potentially above-average slider, and a potentially average changeup.
  • SS Thairo Estrada may be done for the season. Triple-A Scranton manager Bobby Mitchell told DJ Eberle that Estrada has a back issue and it’ll be difficult for him to return before the end of the year. Thairo was originally placed on the Triple-A disabled list with a wrist issue.
  • As for RHP Erik Swanson, he is on the Triple-A disabled list with a groin issue, reports Conor Foley. That stinks, but it is good news in that it’s not his arm. He’s had elbow trouble in the past. Sounds like Swanson could miss a few weeks.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (7-5 loss to Lehigh Valley)

  • CF Tyler Wade: 1-1, 2 R, 4 BB
  • LF Mark Payton: 2-5, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBI — got picked off first … I expected some team to give him a look as a Rule 5 Draft fourth or fifth outfielder these last few years, but it hasn’t happened
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 0-5, 2 K
  • 1B Tyler Austin: 2-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 E (fielding) — here’s video of the homer
  • RF Billy McKinney: 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 E (throwing)
  • RHP Chance Adams: 4 IP, 3 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 K, 7/3 GB/FB — 55 of 89 pitches were strikes (62%) … 5.21 ERA and 71/31 K/BB in 65.2 innings
  • RHP Tommy Kahnle: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0/2 GB/FB — 18 of 25 pitches were strikes (72%) … 9/3 K/BB in six innings down here

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm Tagged With: Erik Swanson, Thairo Estrada

DotF: Wade and Drury go deep in Scranton’s win

June 14, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

RHP Erik Swanson was placed on the Triple-A Scranton disabled list today, the team announced. Not sure what’s wrong with him. Swanson does have an injury history, most notably missing much of the 2015 season with a flexor strain.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (9-5 win over Syracuse in ten innings)

  • RF Clint Frazier: 0-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K
  • SS Tyler Wade: 2-5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K — second homer of the season and second homer in his last five games … he was ejected by the first base umpire after a single in the tenth … not sure what that’s about
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 2-5, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K — really has no business being down here … he’s too good for Triple-A
  • CF Billy McKinney: 1-4, 1 R, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K — threw a runner out at third
  • 2B Abi Avelino: 0-5, 1 R
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 2-4, 1 R, 2 2B, 1 RBI
  • LHP Justus Sheffield: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HB, 3/3 GB/FB — 60 of 94 pitches were strikes (64%) … Conor Foley says Sheffield was hit in the left biceps by a comebacker, but was able to stay in the game … 72/30 K/BB in 60.2 innings
  • RHP Brady Lail: 1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 1/1 GB/FB — 10 of 18 pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm Tagged With: Erik Swanson

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