Hisashi Iwakuma Archives - River Avenue Blues

2015 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Thursday

July 30, 2015 by Mike 1,908 Comments

We are now just one day away from the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline. The Yankees have not yet made a move but I expect them to do something by 4pm ET tomorrow. They need pitching — I’m not sure how much more obvious it could be at this point — and a new second baseman sure would be cool too. Don’t be fooled by the six-game lead in the AL East, there are holes on the roster.

Late last night, Cole Hamels was traded to the Rangers in an eight-player deal, taking arguably the best available pitcher off the board. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday we learned the Tigers are making David Price and their other rental players available, which is significant because Price would look wonderful in pinstripes. We’ll again keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here. Talk about all of ’em in this open thread.

2:50pm ET: Not only do the Yankees not want to trade top prospects, they are hesitant to trade guys like Adam Warren and Bryan Mitchell as well. The sense is they will add a reliever to deepen the bullpen. Warren could then be a candidate to return to the rotation. [Joel Sherman]
2:47pm ET: The Mariners plan to keep impending free agent Hisashi Iwakuma. He’s a favorite of ownership and they could always re-sign him in the offseason. The Yankees had not been connected to Iwakuma but he seemed like a logical fit. (Masahiro Tanaka’s teammate in Japan!) [Jeff Passan]
2:23pm ET: The Yankees are “poised to strike” and are in on all the available arms. That … really doesn’t tell us anything new. The Yankees are typically a club that waits until the last minute to make trades, however. The Martin Prado and Stephen Drew deals were announced after the deadline last year.[Ken Rosenthal]
2:01pm ET: The Yankees are on the “periphery” of the Yovani Gallardo race. He is very available and a bunch of teams are in the mix. Gallardo is still scheduled to start against the Yankees tonight. [Heyman]
12:50pm ET: David Price is heading to the Blue Jays for a package of top prospects, including Daniel Norris and Anthony Alford. So scratch him off the list.
12:06pm ET: The Blue Jays appear to be “closing in” on a trade for David Price according to multiple reports. Toronto hasn’t been to the postseason since 1993 and they acquired Troy Tulowitzki a few days ago. The chips are firmly in the middle of the table.
10:07am ET: The Yankees are considering among Mike Leake‘s most likely landing spots at this point. They’re also a candidate to acquire Jeff Samardzija should the surging White Sox decide to move him. Special assistant Jim Hendry drafted the righty when he was Cubs GM and Larry Rothschild was Samardzija’s pitching coach in Chicago for a few years. [Heyman]
9:30am ET: The Yankees are one of four serious contenders for David Price, along with the Dodgers, Giants, and Blue Jays. All four clubs are in talks with the Tigers. [Jon Heyman]
The Yankees discussed Dustin Ackley with the Mariners. Ramon Flores and Ben Gamel came up but Seattle wanted more — I believe it was Flores or Gamel, not both — so talks stalled out. For whatever reason the Yankees have been after Ackley for years. [Mark Feinsand]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Mailbag: Non-Yu Darvish Asian Pitchers

November 10, 2011 by Mike 16 Comments

Hisashi Iwakuma — Iwakuma. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

JCK asks: What are your thoughts on the Asian pitching market beyond Yu Darvish? Namely Koreans Suk-Min Yoon and Hyun-Jin Ryu, Wei-Ying Chen from Taiwan, each of whom could reportedly enter the posting system, and Japanese free agent Hisashi Iwakuma?

NOTE: All were recently mentioned in a Jeff Passan piece as potentially posting or being free agents.

Other than Iwakuma, I hadn’t heard of any of these guys until a few weeks ago, and we could add Japanese lefty Tsuyoshi Wada and righties Kyuji Fujikawa and Shinobu Fukuhara to that mix as well. The A’s won the posting for Iwakuma last winter but couldn’t hammer out a contract, so he went back to Japan for another year and is now a true free agent. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a shoulder injury during the season after years of injury problems earlier in his career. Keith Law had the 30-year-old Iwakuma 48th on his list of the top 50 free agents (Insider req’d), saying “he was back up to 87-90 by the end of the season with the hard splitter and plus slider he’s shown in the past. If his medicals check out and his fastball is at least fringe average, he could be someone’s fifth starter because he throws so many strikes and tends to keep the ball down.”

Other than Darvish, Chen is probably the most coveted Asian pitcher this winter. The 26-year-old lefty was born in Taiwan but has pitched for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan for a few years now. He got Tommy John surgery out of the way in 2006. “He had been sitting low-90s and touching 95 in past years but was more 88-92 early in 2011, and his slider didn’t have its usual bite,” said KLaw, who ranked him 19th on his top 50 list. “By the end of the year, he was back up to 92-94 and the slider was sharper … He has a decent split-change that should make him more than just a lefty specialist, although it’s not an out pitch for him. Chen still has plus control.” He is a true free agent thanks to some contract shenanigans.

Wada, 30, is a true free agent like Iwakuma. NPB Tracker put together a full-fledged scouting report on him last month, saying “his fastball velocity [lives in] the 87-88 range.” They project him as back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever in MLB, but note that he takes preparation very seriously, which could ease the transition. The 31-year-old Fujikawa won’t be a free agent until next winter, so the Hanshin Tigers would have to put him through the posting process to get him to MLB. Law had him 45th on his top 50 list, said he’s “up to 94 mph with his fastball and will sit around 92, but the pitch is pin-straight and he goes to his splitter often to keep changing eye levels. The splitter is an out pitch for him, and he commands it well.” Fukuhara, 35 in December, is said to have a low-90’s fastball with a slider and a curve according to NPB Tracker (via MLBTR). Wada is a starter, Fujikawa is a reliever, and Fukuhara has done a little of both.

Yoon, 25, was the Korea Baseball Organization’s MVP this year, and he’d need the Kia Tigers to post him if he wants to come to MLB. Passan’s article says the right-hander has “a fastball that sits at 93 mph, a hard slider and what one scout deemed an above-average changeup.” Ryu, a 24-year-old southpaw, has been pitching in the KBO since he was a teenager, winning both the league’s MVP and Rookie of the Year awards at age 19. “Ryu has four average to above-average pitches, including a 86-93 mph fastball with late life that he can add and subtract from when needed, a slow curve (75 mph), a tighter slider and a changeup,” wrote Baseball America (subs. req’d) after the 2009 World Baseball Classic. “Ryu’s biggest asset is his feel for pitching. Scouts have said that he would be a first-round pick if he was in the U.S., and would likely need only a brief period of acclimation before stepping into a big league rotation.”

Here are YouTube clips of Iwakuma, Chen, Wada, Fujikawa, Yoon, and Ryu. Can’t find anything on Fukuhara, sorry. Based on the tiny little bit I know about these guys, the trio of Chen, Fujikawa, and Ryu seem interesting. Chen is still really young and has shown premium stuff in the past, but there should be a little concern about how his stuff dropped off this year. Japanese relievers tend to transition a little better than starters, I think in part due to their usage and the general lack of exposure, so I could see Fujikawa stepping right into a bullpen next year and helping someone. Baseball America’s scouting report makes Ryu sound like a stud, and he doesn’t look like a traditional Asian pitcher in the video I linked. He’s a big boy and and it’s almost an American delivery, with basically no hesitation at all. That makes him stand out from the crowd, if nothing else.

We know the Yankees have scouted Darvish quite a bit over the years, but we haven’t heard anything about their interest in any of these other guys. As far as I can tell, they didn’t even place a bid for Iwakuma last year. I’m sure the team is at least aware these guys exist though. The three free agents (Iwakuma, Wada, and Fukuhara) aside from Chen are all back-end types, but the guys that need to be posted (Yoon and Ryu) are interesting because they’re still in their mid-20’s and theoretically offer some upside. We’ll see how this plays out this winter, but I would be surprised if the Yankees got involved with anyone other than Darvish.

Agent calls Yankees a ‘dark horse’ in Iwakuma bidding

November 2, 2010 by Mike 43 Comments

Via NPB Tracker, agent Don Nomura called the Yankees a “dark horse” in the bidding for Japanese righty Hisashi Iwakuma. I don’t know about you, but this sounds like a classic case of an agent trying to drive up the price by looping the Yanks into the mix. I posted about Iwakuma yesterday, and we have zero indication that they actually have interest in acquiring him, at least until this report from his agent. The posting process started today, so we should found out a results in the next week or so.

The Yankees and Hisashi Iwakuma

November 1, 2010 by Mike 54 Comments

It’s no secret that the Yankees need to acquire at least one starting pitcher this winter, and it’s even less of a secret that they want that pitcher to be Cliff Lee. They won’t be able to pursue him until the free agency period begins five days after the end of the World Series, but that applies to MLB players only. As MLBTR noted yesterday, the Rakuten Golden Eagles are making ace righty Hisashi Iwakuma available via the posting process this winter, and the bidding begins today.

Of course, the Yankees still have the sour taste of Kei Igawa (and to a lesser extent Hideki Irabu) in their mouths (and on their payroll, unfortunately), but it would be foolish to eliminate an entire demographic of talent just because of one horrendous mistake. They’ve been scouting Yu Darvish rather heavily over the last two years, so we know they’re not afraid of acquiring another Japanese pitcher. They just have to make sure it’s the right Japanese pitcher.

I remember watching 29-year-old Iwakuma (30 in April) pitch twice in the 2009 WBC (including in the Championship series) and being impressed but not blown away. Subjectively speaking, he didn’t have blow-you-away kind of stuff but threw lots of strikes and mixed his pitches well, similar to what Colby Lewis has been doing with great success this postseason. Let’s not go off my shoddy memory though, here’s a scouting report courtesy of Baseball America …

… Iwakuma has had some health concerns, as he missed most of the 2006 season with a shoulder injury, and he struggled in 2007 as well. But he returned to full health in 2008, as he went 21-4, 1.87 to lead the Pacific League in ERA and wins to earn the league’s MVP award.

Iwakuma doesn’t light up a radar gun, as his fastball sits around 89-90 mph and tops out at 93, but he pairs it with a nasty split-finger fastball that dives at the plate and a solid-to-plus slider. As he showed throughout the World Baseball Classic, Iwakuma is extremely efficient. He carved up Cuba, needing only 66 pitches to work six innings.

[snip]

“He would step into any rotation in the majors right now; he might be the No. 1 for half the teams in the majors,” an American League scout said. “He’s very impressive across the board.”

Always love the anonymous scout quotes thrown in at the end. Anyway, the indispensable NPB Tracker shared some velocity data for one of Iwakuma’s recent starts, which confirms the above (a shuuto is basically a two-seamer). He’s thrown 571 total innings over the last three years (including 200+ in 2008 and 2010), so the injury concerns mentioned above appear to be a thing of the past. He’s posted a 6.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 0.5 HR/9 in those years, which is something like a 2.95 FIP using the MLB factors. Don’t take that to heart though, it’s just a ballpark number. Here’s a video, and you can see Iwakuma has a traditional Asian delivery, with the hesitation and everything.

Unlike Darvish, it’s not a package that screams frontline starter, but rather something more along the lines of a mid-rotation guy, and there’s nothing wrong with that. The key to any deal would be keeping it short, because for whatever reason Japanese starting pitchers seem to hit a bit of a wall after their first two seasons in MLB (see right). Perhaps it has to do with the different schedule; they pitch once a week in Japan, the same day every week, rather than a set five man rotation. Maybe it takes two or three years before the added workload catches up to them. Maybe MLB hitters eventually adjust, who knows. Either way, a four- or five-year deal should be avoided. Two or three is the way to go, if that.

Given his low strikeout tendencies, I don’t believe the Yankees should make a serious push for Iwakuma in the next few weeks. Chances are his strikeout, walk, and homerun rates will suffer during the transition to MLB, and the strikeout rate might not be good enough to make up the difference. There are legitimate reasons to be skeptical about Iwakuma’s ability to succeed pitching in the AL East with a hitter friendly home ballpark.

That said, I don’t see any harm with submitting an $8-10M bid (or whatever amount they’re comfortable with, really) just to see what happens. Rakuten is hoping to get a $16M bid according to the link above, so I’m talking about basically half of what’s expected. The Rays landed Akinori Iwamura when they submitted a $4.5M bid with no expectations in 2006, and they ended up receiving 6.1 fWAR out of him for a total of $12M from 2007-2009, a great bargain. The Yanks should take a chance to see if Iwakuma falls into their laps at a below market rate, but they shouldn’t go all-out to pursue him.