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2018 ALDS Game Three: Red Sox at Yankees

October 8, 2018 by Mike

Welcome to the best-of-three ALDS. The Yankees and Red Sox split the first two games of the series at Fenway Park — a good outcome for the Yankees, for sure — and now the series shifts to the Bronx for Game Three. It’s very simple: Win two games at home and set up an ALCS rematch against the obnoxiously good Astros.

Since the start of last postseason the Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Yankee Stadium in the postseason and have outscored their opponents 42-14. 42-14! They’re built for their home ballpark. No doubt. The Yankee Stadium crowd is also the tenth man. The crowd’s been dynamite the last two postseasons and I think it’ll be even louder tonight.

“I think it’s going to be amazing. I really do,” said Aaron Boone yesterday about tonight’s crowd. “I think the connection that our fan base and our fans now have with our players is a special one … I thought the atmosphere against the A’s was special. I think there’s a potential that it could be even more so tomorrow night.”

The Yankees will start Luis Severino tonight and he pitched well in the Wild Card Game, though he only got through four innings plus two batters. Some more length would be nice tonight, but, as far as I’m concerned, the important thing is quality of the innings, not the quantity of the innings. Especially with the bullpen the Yankees have.

If you’re into projections and probabilities and all that, ZiPS has the Yankees as the slight favorite to win the series (53.6% vs. 46.4%) and a slighter favorite to win tonight (51.3% vs. 48.7%). Both these teams are so good, man. It’s hard for me to look at this series as anything other than a coin flip. The lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. CF Brett Gardner

RHP Luis Severino

Boston Red Sox
1. RF Mookie Betts
2. LF Andrew Benintendi
3. DH J.D. Martinez
4. SS Xander Bogaerts
5. 3B Rafael Devers
6. 1B Steve Pearce
7. 2B Brock Holt
8. C Christian Vazquez
9. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi

It is cloudy and cool in New York tonight. Has been all day. Not the best baseball weather, but there’s no heavy rain in the forecast, and that’s all that matters. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm ET and you can watch on TBS and TBS.com. Enjoy the game.

Injury Update: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) is doing “considerably” better and is available tonight. Aaron Boone said he wanted to give Hicks one more day just because hamstrings are tricky.

Scouting the ALDS Opposition: Nathan Eovaldi

October 8, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Nathan Eovaldi has faced the Yankees three times since joining the Red Sox, and he has been nothing short of dominant. His overall line in those games is 16.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, and 13 K, and it may well have been better had he not been pulled after two effective innings on September 29 (it was effectively a means to keep him stretched-out in a meaningless game). We saw flashes of this sort of dominance before, but it was sporadic at best – and the fact that this has come with the Red Sox makes it even more maddening. But I digress.

Let’s take a look at this new and improved version of Eovaldi.

When Eovaldi last pitched for the Yankees in 2016, all of the talk was about maximizing his newfound splitter. The pitch was, for all intents and purposes, born in 2015, accounting for 9.4% of his offerings; the usage more than doubled in 2016 to 22.9% … and then his elbow went ‘boom.’ To that point, Eovaldi was basically a three-pitch guy, with his four-seamer, slider, and splitter. This year, however, we’ve seen the unveiling of another new-ish pitch: a cutter.

As per Brooks Baseball, Eovaldi threw a total of 220 cutters from 2011 through 2016; he threw 577 this year. His cutter represented just under a third of his offerings this year, and he threw fewer fastballs and sliders than ever before. And while batters are hitting .252 against the cutter, his four-seamer (.206) and slider (.219) have been at their most effective this year – and that may be attributed to the increased use of a pitch that essentially splits the difference between a four-seamer and a slider.

Eovaldi’s velocity remains elite, too. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 MPH this year, his cutter sat just over 93 MPH, and both his slider and splitter sit in the upper 80s.

So what, if anything, does he do differently against the Yankees?

Eovaldi’s splitter usage jumps out the most. He threw 213 pitches against the Yankees in his three Red Sox appearances, and just 9 of those (or 4.2%) were splitters. Compare that to an average of 12.8% overall, and it seems like a conscious decision by Eovaldi and/or the coaching staff. Those splitters were almost entirely replaced by cutters, which represented 39.0% of his offerings against the Yankees. Between that and his four-seamer, Eovaldi is throwing roughly 80% of his pitches at 93-plus MPH against the Yankees – and it’s been working.

It’s also worth noting that, by FanGraphs’ model, the Yankees are one of the worst teams in baseball at hitting the cutter. They ranked 25th in baseball against cutters, losing 7.2 more runs than the average team against it. And by that same metric, Eovaldi had the 9th-best cutter among starting pitchers, just behind CC Sabathia.

All that being said, it’s worth noting that Eovaldi’s approach in his lone start against the Yankees as a member of the Rays was largely the same – and the Yankees knocked him around for 8 hits and 5 runs in 7.1 IP. He improved as the season wore on, to be sure, and that was his fourth start after a nearly two-year layoff, but it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for the Yankees with him on the mound. And he hasn’t yet faced this fully operational offense in playoff atmosphere Yankee Stadium, either.

The Yankees have kept Mookie Betts in check so far, and they will have to keep doing so to win the ALDS

October 8, 2018 by Mike

In all likelihood, Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts will be named AL MVP this year. He is the proverbial “best player on the best team,” which always leads to MVP love, and it wouldn’t be undeserved. Betts hit .346/.438/.640 (185 wRC+) with 32 homers and 30 steals during the regular season, and he led MLB with +10.4 fWAR and +10.8 bWAR. It was the first Trout-like season by someone other than Mike Trout since Bryce Harper’s MVP year in 2015.

Betts wrecked the Yankees during the regular season like he wrecked pretty much every team, hitting .415/.506/.738 with ten doubles and three homers in 17 games. In those 17 games against the Yankees, he reached base 40 times and had 48 total bases. Betts failed to reach base only twice in his 17 regular season games against the Yankees this year. He’s great player and he was especially great against the Yankees this year.

That all said, through two games in the ALDS, the Yankees have largely kept Betts in check. He is 1-for-7 at the plate with a walk. The walk was intentional and the base hit was a third inning leadoff double against J.A. Happ in Game One. Betts was ahead in the count 3-1, home plate umpire Cory Blaser gave Happ a gift strike two call, then Betts golfed the next pitch off the Green Monster.

Betts did not reach base in Game Two — he went 0-for-4 with a hard line out and three otherwise harmless batted balls — and, partly because of that, J.D. Martinez batted with only one runner on base in his four at-bats. When you’re trying to hold down the Red Sox offense, that’s a great way to do it. Limiting traffic in front of Martinez is a must.

The Yankees have, to some degree, changed up their approach against Betts in the ALDS, though it is only eight plate appearances against five different pitchers (Masahiro Tanaka three times, Happ twice, Zach Britton once, Chad Green once, Lance Lynn once). Here’s the quick breakdown:

Regular season: 50.3% fastballs, 34.1% breaking balls, 15.6% offspeed
ALDS: 60.0% fastballs, 22.9% breaking balls, 17.1% offspeed

Three at-bats against the fastball heavy Happ and Lynn are balanced out by three at-bats against the anti-fastball Tanaka. Then again, it’s eight at-bats, so it’s possible if not likely this is all sample size noise. This much I do know: Not counting the intentional walk, Betts has seen a hitter friendly 2-0 or 3-1 count only twice in his seven ALDS at-bats. That’s a good way to limit a hitter’s production. Stop him from seeing favorable counts.

Betts is so good that holding him down for an entire postseason series feels impossible. I swear, every time the guy makes an out, it feels like luck. His hands are lightning fast and he rarely swings and misses. I’m not sure there’s a hole anywhere in his swing. He can beat you in so many ways too. With his power, with his patience, with his speed. Plus he does stuff like this defensively. Give credit where it’s due. Betts is a hell of a ballplayer.

The Yankees have done a good job keeping Betts in check so far in the ALDS. Holding him to a double and an intentional walk through two games is a pretty great outcome. Better than I would’ve expected. I’m not sure limiting him a .143 AVG and a .250 OBP for an entire best-of-five series is possible, but the longer the Yankees can prevent him from having an impact, the greater their chances of advancing.

Last postseason Dellin Betances was unusable, now he’s an indispensable part of the bullpen

October 8, 2018 by Mike

What a difference a year makes. Last year around this time Dellin Betances was persona non grata, essentially unusable in the postseason because his control had deteriorated down the stretch. The Yankees had to cover 8.2 innings with their bullpen in the 2017 Wild Card Game and Betances never even warmed up. Chasen Shreve warmed up. Betances did not.

This season, after an offseason of trade (and even non-tender) speculation, Betances reemerged as a dominant bullpen arm, throwing 66.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) during the regular season. His 42.3% strikeout rate was a career high. His 9.6% walk rate was far better than last year (16.0%) and below his career average (11.0%). With Aroldis Chapman’s knee having been an issue in the second half, Betances was the team’s best reliever during the regular season.

Dellin’s postseason role has been made clear after only three games. He was the eighth inning guy during the regular season, and now, in October, Aaron Boone is using him as a middle of the order specialist. Consider his two appearances thus far:

Wild Card Game: Entered with the Yankees up 2-0, runners on first and second with no outs in the fifth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.
ALDS Game Two: Entered with the Yankees up 3-1, bases empty with no outs in the sixth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.

“We wanted Dellin for that part of the order. So I was willing to go to him obviously as early as we were,” said Boone after the Wild Card Game. “Dellin is a stud … I told him before the game, you may be who I go to in the fourth or the fifth inning potentially, if it’s a part of lineup that I want you facing in that spot.”

Betances has gotten six of the biggest outs of the year so far. That’s not an unreasonable thing to say. The biggest and most impactful out is probably Luis Severino striking out Marcus Semien with the bases loaded to end the fourth inning in the Wild Card Game. After that, the biggest outs are Betances in the fifth inning of the Wild Card Game and Betances in the sixth inning of ALDS Game Two, right? Middle of the order with a two-run lead? That’s huge.

According to championship probability added, which is essentially win probability added on steroids (WPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a win, CPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a championship), Betances has been one of the most impactful pitchers in baseball this season. The 2018 pitcher CPA leaderboard:

Kyle Freeland: +0.089
Clayton Kershaw: +0.052
Josh Hader: +0.050
Dellin Betances: +0.046
Cole Hamels: +0.043

CPA covers the regular season and postseason. Everything a player does throughout the year either helps or hurts his team’s chances of winning the World Series. Betances was the primary eighth inning guy during the regular season and he racked up a lot of high-leverage outs. In the postseason, his role has changed a bit, in that he’s being asked to get the biggest outs regardless of inning. It’s pretty awesome. I love the way Boone has used Dellin so far.

Surely, having guys like Chapman and Zach Britton and David Robertson in reserve for the late innings makes it easier to use Betances in the middle innings. Boone identified a high-leverage situation, put his best reliever in the game, and it helped the Yankees win. Betances retired all six batters he faced in the Wild Card Game and retired the 2-3-4 hitters on nine pitches in ALDS Game Two. (He did allow a run in the next inning.)

“It feels good,” said Betances following Game Two, when asked how to it felt to have an important role this postseason (video link). “Like I said last year, I felt like I wasn’t contributing to the team the way I wanted to. I feels good to go out there and get some great outs.”

The last few years Betances saw his performance slip in the second half, particularly in September. Last year it was especially bad. I always kinda assumed at least part of it was fatigue. Betances was a multi-inning guy for a few years and that takes a toll on you. This year, there was no second half slip. Dellin remained effective all year, so much so that he’s now being asked to get the biggest outs in October. That’s a game-changer. It really is. He’s so good when right.

As good as the bullpen was last season and last postseason, it was not as deep as this year’s bullpen. Joe Girardi leaned heavily on Robertson and Chapman last postseason, with Green and Tommy Kahnle filling in the gaps. This year Boone has Chapman in the ninth, Robertson and Britton as trusted late-inning guys, plus Green to fill in the gaps, plus Betances as what amounts to that middle of the order specialist. Girardi didn’t have this Betances last year.

Thanks to built-in off-days, the Yankees are especially dangerous with their bullpen this postseason. Betances went two innings in the Wild Card Game and two innings in ALDS Game Two, then was able to rest during the off-day and be available for the next game. That doesn’t happen during the regular season. The presence of guys like Robertson and Britton allow Boone to be aggressive with Dellin in the middle innings, which he’s done so far this postseason, and Betances has responded by getting some of the biggest outs of the year already. It’s the polar opposite of last postseason.

Thoughts prior to Game Three of the 2018 ALDS

October 8, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees went to Fenway Park and did what they had to do over the weekend. They split the first two games of the ALDS and grabbed homefield advantage. Game Two was especially fun. The Yankees socked some dingers and, after the game, Aaron Judge blasted “New York, New York” from his road trip boombox as he walked through the Fenway Park concourse to the team bus. Pretty great. Anyway, I have some thoughts going into Game Three tonight (7:40pm ET on TBS), so let’s get to ’em.

1. Remember how bad Judge was in the ALDS last year? He was historically awful. He went 1-for-20 (.050) with a double, four walks, and 16 strikeouts (!) in the five-game series against the Indians. That’s the most strikeouts by a single player in a postseason series in baseball history, including seven-game series. Judge was much better in the ALCS against the Astros (.250/.357/.708) and, this postseason, he’s been a monster. He is 7-for-12 (.583) thus far, and in all three postseason games he’s hit a home run and reached base three times. Judge is 12-for-29 (.414) with five walks (.500 OBP) and six homers (1.138 SLG) in his last eight postseason games dating back to ALCS Game Three last year. What a beast. Hard to believe we were all concerned about whether Judge would have his timing at the plate and adequate strength in his wrist after the injury. It wasn’t unreasonable to be concerned! Wrist injuries are tricky. Right now, it’s impossible to tell he was ever hurt. Judge had three 109+ mph batted balls in his first three at-bats in Game Two. MVP candidate Jose Ramirez had two 109+ mph batted balls all season. Judge is a unicorn, man. That size, that athleticism, that power, that leadership. He’s looking more and more like a once in a generation type, truly.

2. The talent and depth in the bullpen is insane. The guys the Red Sox have been trotting out there in middle relief do not compare to the guys the Yankees have been running out there. The depth has really stood out. The Yankees used four relievers to cover five innings in the Wild Card Game and they still had Chad Green and Jonathan Holder in reserve. Four relievers covered six innings in ALDS Game One and the Yankees didn’t use Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, or Holder. Three relievers covered four innings in ALDS Game Two and the Yankees had David Robertson, Green, and Holder still available. That is nuts. Holder threw 66 innings with a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) this season and was a rock solid middle innings reliever, and he hasn’t even warmed up in any of the three postseason games. When that dude is your sixth best reliever, you’re in great shape. The bullpen is incredibly deep and the built-in rest means the Yankees will have all those guys available pretty much every game. There are no A.J. Coles who need to soak up innings when others need rest, you know? The relievers still have to get outs, absolutely, but what an advantage the bullpen has been thus far. They protect leads and, when the Yankees are behind, they prevent the other team from adding on.

3. Eduardo Nunez, not Rafael Devers, has started at third base in the first two games of the ALDS, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora said it is because “we feel he’s been the better defensive player.” First and foremost, I’m pretty sure this is the first time anyone has said Nunez is in the starting lineup for his glove. Hard to believe. Secondly, there’s a parallel to the Gary Sanchez/Austin Romine situation here. Devers is, clearly, the more talented player and more likely to do something game-changing (at the plate). Nunez is the safer play. Neither he nor Devers stood out for his bat during the regular season (90 wRC+ vs. 78 wRC+), and the Red Sox consider Nunez the superior defender, so they’ve have gone with him. The Yankees are doing the opposite. Romine is the better defender than Sanchez — well, he’s better at blocking pitches in the dirt, throwing and pitch-framing and game-calling are a different matter — and the safe play would’ve been to start him in the postseason. Instead, the Yankees have stuck with Sanchez, and he rewarded them with a monster two-homer game in Game Two. Nunez is 0-for-7 with a walk in the two ALDS games and his defense has been suspect as well. The Red Sox have played it safe and they have yet to be rewarded. The Yankees bet on the talent and it paid huge dividends in Game Two.

4. This isn’t the easiest thing to quantify, but the Yankees seem to be positioned exceptionally well this postseason. Ground balls are hit right at guys and the outfielders aren’t having to travel very far to run down fly balls. The Red Sox had several hard-hit balls against Masahiro Tanaka the other night and Brett Gardner was in position to catch all of them. Don’t mistake that for me saying the Yankees have been flawless defensively. Miguel Andujar still has his issues and Luke Voit can make things interesting at first base. I’m just saying that the Yankees seem to have their defenders positioned very well. Ground balls have been hit right at infielders and several line drives have been hit right at defenders at well. Maybe it’s all one giant coincidence. That’s possible. Given how much the Yankees rely on analytics though, I don’t think that’s the case. Love it or hate it, the shift is here to stay, and the Yankees have doing a really good job getting their people in the right spots.

5. Obvious statement is obvious: The Yankees don’t want this series going back to Fenway Park for Game Five, especially not with Chris Sale lined up for that game. If they have to do it, they have to do it, but they want to put this series away these next two days. The Yankees are built for their ballpark and the Yankee Stadium crowd is a very real homefield advantage. Astros players said the atmosphere was intimidating last season — “There’s no doubt the crowd had an effect on the game,” said then Astros DH Carlos Beltran to Tom Verducci following the ALCS Game Four comeback last year — and I imagine the energy with be ratcheted up another notch since this is Yankees vs. Red Sox. The Yankees are undefeated at home since last postseason. They won all six home games last year and the Wild Card Game this year. That’s because the Yankees are insanely talented and built for their ballpark, first and foremost. But the crowd helps. For sure. The old Yankee Stadium was special in its own way. I loved that place. I grew up going to games there. The new Yankee Stadium has started to develop its own personality though. Its own personality with a new core of players. The Yankees have transitioned out of the Derek Jeter era and a new core has arrived. It’s fun and it’s exciting, and the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium reflects that. I get the feeling these next two games will be bonkers.

Fan Confidence Poll: October 8th, 2018

October 8, 2018 by Mike

Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
Postseason Record: 2-1 (18 RS, 9 RA), won WC Game, tied 1-1 in ALDS
Schedule This Week: ALDS Game Three vs. Red Sox (Monday); ALDS Game Four vs. Red Sox (Tuesday); ALDS Game Five at Red Sox (Thursday if necessary)

The Task

October 7, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

Two down, ten to go. The Yankees have won two of the 12 necessary to hoist their 28th World Series banner and to keep that going, they’ll need to win two of the next three games against their biggest rival, who are in the midst of a historic season. No biggie. The task ahead of them is clear and, based on games one and two, so is the way to accomplish it.

In the first game of the series, Chris Sale pitched well and made it into the sixth inning. JA Happ did not. In the second game of the series, Masahiro Tanaka pitched well and completed five innings. David Price did not. While the Yankees scored against the Boston bullpen in game one, the comeback was halted and incomplete because of Sale’s performance; it’s harder to come back when you’re starting from zero, right?

The Yankee bullpen is superior to the Red Sox’s, but a rest day resets things, even if Boston had to get so many outs from their relievers last night. That makes it all the more imperative that Luis Severino in game three and CC Sabathia in game four make it through five innings, at least keeping the score close. Boston has a great offense and they’re likely to score, even against someone as talented as Severino and as competitive and crafty as Sabathia. If they keep the score close, the Yankees can take advantage of Boston’s bullpen.

Ideally, they’ll keep Boston down enough that the Yankee offense can grab the lead against Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi. If that’s the case, then the Yankees can lean on their superior bullpen to finish the job off in the late innings. If it’s not the case, then Sevy and CC need to hold them down enough to allow for the comeback to start against the non-Craig Kimbrel relievers Boston throws at them.

On the other side of the game, the offense will have to do what it’s built to do, what so heavily signified the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry for so many years: wear down the starter and get to the bullpen. The Yankees have long been built on patience and power, the two things that wear pitchers down the fastest. This team is not so different from that and escaping into the Sox’s bullpen is their primary objective (after, you know, scoring runs); doing so will make victory that much easier to attain. And the quick trigger most managers have in the playoffs combined with the potential power of the Yankee offense makes this goal pretty manageable.

Getting good starting pitching and getting to the other team’s bullpen is hardly some galaxy brain strategy. It’s pretty simple baseball and it’s what good teams have been doing for over 20 years. While it sometimes has mixed results in the playoffs, it’s the way the Yankees are built and going away from it could be unproductive, especially at this point in the year. With the next two games at home, the Yankees have a chance to knock off their rival in a big way in a big year for Boston. Hopefully, the next time I’m writing, it’ll be about how to take down Cleveland or Houston.