River Avenue Blues

Yankees likely to continue looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder

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Even though they signed Matt Diaz to a minor league contract yesterday, the Yankees are likely to continue looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder according to Ken Rosenthal and Kevin Kernan. They still have interest in Scott Hairston.

Hairston is the (relatively) big name left on the market, but guys like Jeff Baker and Ben Francisco could probably be had on a minor league contracts. Maybe even former Yankee Juan Rivera as well. Melky Mesa is, by far, the team’s best internal option for the right-handed platoon outfielder role, so bringing in as many candidates as possible to compete in camp is the best thing to do if the Yankees are unwilling to give Hairston the multi-year contract he demands.

Yankees sign Matt Diaz to minor league contract

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(Nick Laham/Getty)

Given their all left-handed hitting outfield, finding a competent right-handed hitting complement has been a priority for the Yankees this offseason. That need has led them to Matt Diaz, who has joined the club on a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training according to Mark Feinsand. He’ll compete for a bench spot a la Marcus Thames in 2010, and will earn $1.2M (with another $800k available in incentives) if he makes the team.

Diaz, 34, had a huge year with the Braves (.313/.390/.488, 136 wRC+) in 2009 but has done little in the three years since (.250/.298/.369, 80 wRC+). The poor performance these last few years can be partially explained by a problematic right thumb, including a series of infections. He’s had three surgeries on the digit — one to correct a cyst (October 2009) and two to remove foreign bodies (May 2010 and August 2012). The most recent surgery carried a two-month rehab and Feinsand says he’s healthy again and has been hitting since October.

Even though he’s been both hurt and generally ineffective these last three seasons, Diaz still managed a solid .281/.328/.426 (104 wRC+) against left-handers. It was a 141 wRC+ against southpaws during his heyday with the Braves (2006-2009), but that’s unlikely to ever happen again. Diaz has decent walk (6.1%) and good strikeout (16.2%) rates but he’s not going to steal any bases or anything like that. He’s also rates a bit below-average defensively in the corner and can’t hit righties (career 79 wRC+). Strict platoon bat, that’s it.

The current market is a little crazy and I was curious to see if some desperate team would offer Diaz a guaranteed contract, but I’m glad that team wasn’t the Yankees. As a minor league deal it won’t preclude the Bombers from making any additional moves, including signing Scott Hairston. If the thumb is truly healthy — hand injuries are no joke because if you can’t grip the bat properly, you can’t hit properly — and Diaz can contribute more than he has in recent years, it’ll be a nice little signing. If not, then no big deal because the guarantee is zero. The Yankees have a nice recent track record with signings like this.

Holiday Mailbag: Alfonso Soriano

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(Brian Kersey/Getty)

Several people asked: What about Alfonso Soriano?

Soriano, 37 next month, is coming off a .262/.322/.499 (116 wRC+) line with 32 homers this past season, his best performance in about four years. He’d hit .248/.305/.463 (100 wRC+) in nearly 1,600 plate appearances from 2009-20112 until the dead cat bounce in 2012. Soriano did not benefit from BABIP luck — his .303 mark exactly matched his career average — but his HR/FB rate did spike back up to 17.8% after sitting at 12.4% from 2009-2011 (17.1% from 2006-2008). There is an explanation for that.

After opening the season with no homers and a .250/.288/.302 batting line through his first 125 plate appearances, Soriano switched to a lighter bat — 33.5 ounces to 32 ounces according to Gordon Wittenmyer — in mid-May to compensate for his age-related loss of bat speed. He hit seven homers from mid-May through the end of the month and .265/.331/.551 with all 32 of those homers in his final 490 plate appearances of the year. The lighter bat led to a big change in batted ball profile, which you can see in the day-to-day graph…

(Green = grounders, blue = fly balls, red = line drives)

After posting a ground ball rate right at 30% from 2009-2011, Soriano was hitting the ball into the ground 40-45% of the time early in the season. The ground ball rate came down and the fly ball rate went up following the change in bats, and more fly balls means more homers. Unlike many HR/FB (and therefore overall production) spikes, there’s a tangible reason why he started hitting the ball differently after mid-May.

Soriano has hit left-handers pretty well over the last three seasons (127 wRC+) and that continued this past year (117 wRC+). He’s been good enough against righties (116 wRC+ in 2012 and 105 from 2010-2012) that he’s not a straight platoon candidate. Soriano will still strike out a bunch (23.3 K% from 2010-2012) and not walk (6.2 BB% from 2010-2012 when you remove all the intentional walks), plus these days he is no longer a stolen base threat (13-for-17 in stolen base attempts from 2010-2012). Depending on your choice of defensive metric, he’s either pretty good (UZR and Total Zone) or pretty bad (DRS and FRAA) in left. Based on what I’ve seen these last few years, which admittedly isn’t a ton, I lean towards the latter.

Soriano’s contract is a nightmare, as the Cubs still owe him $18M in both 2013 and 2014. Jon Heyman recently reported Chicago is willing to pay $26M of that $36M to facilitate a trade, but only if they get a good prospect in return. If the Yankees were to swing a trade for their former second baseman, the luxury tax would only apply to whatever they’re paying Soriano. Say the Cubs eat that $26M, the luxury tax would only apply to the remaining $10M ($5M annually) assumed by New York. It wouldn’t be an $18M luxury tax hit even though he’ll actually earn that much salary.

The Yankees need both a right-handed hitting outfielder and a DH, two roles Soriano is qualified to fill at this stage of his career. Scott Hairston is likely to command a two-year, $10M deal similar to what Jonny Gomes received from the Red Sox, so the Bombers could simply sign him for the same salary as Soriano and keep their prospect(s). They’re both low-OBP, power-driven right-handed hitters, but Hairston is quite a bit younger. The lighter bat is nice, but you still have to worry that at some point Soriano just won’t be able to produce anymore given his age. More than anything else, the price will dictate if he’s a reasonable acquisition. Both the money and prospect cost has to be right since he’s a git, but not a perfect fit.

Yankees did not make offer to Ibanez, priority is a right-handed bat

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Via Mark Feinsand: Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees did not make an offer to Raul Ibanez before he signed with the Mariners. The GM also said the team’s priority is finding a right-handed bat at the moment, even moreso than landing a DH. “I have to see how much money I have left. I don’t have an unlimited budget,” said Cashman, his annual offseason mantra.

There aren’t many quality right-handed bats left on the free agent market, particularly if the team is dead set on adding someone who can play the outfield. I sorta like the idea of Carlos Lee, who can do some damage against southpaws (113 wRC+ since 2010), fill in at first base and DH, and even mix in some left field on the rarest of occasions. He’s also an extreme contact hitter, with an 8.8 K% and an 88.4% contact rate over the last three seasons. Lee did invoke his no-trade clause to reject a trade to New York this summer, however. It gives you can idea of how poor the right-handed market is when I’m writing about a guy like Carlos Lee as a possible fit.

Christmas Open Thread

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Santa scouting peport: Bad body but sneaky delivery.

Happy Holidays to you and yours from all of us at RAB. Christmas Eve is always the bigger event with my family, we all get together for dinner and to exchange presents and all that stuff. Christmas Day itself is almost like a day to unwind. I hope you’re having a wonderful holiday season no matter what you celebrate or what your plans may be. Merry Christmas.

Yankees won’t allow Cano to play winter ball

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Via Dan Martin: The Yankees have rejected a request for Robinson Cano to play in the Dominican Winter League playoffs. The more big league service time a player has, the more control their team has over their winter ball usage. Robbie is well beyond the point where the Yankees can prevent him from playing.

Cano, 30, is going to be counted on quite a bit offensively next season given the expected production hit the team will take in right field and behind the plate. Robbie has also played in at least 159 games in six straight years, the third most in MLB, so the extra rest and decreased wear-and-tear won’t be a bad thing. I have no problem with the team holding him out of winter ball to reduce the risk of injury (among other things) prior to 2013. It’s not like he’s a young prospect in need of extra reps.