During my post-game analysis of Joba’s start, I noted that the Ed Hickox’s strike zone was something a little less than generous. However, Jonathan Hale’s pitch f/x analysis of the start disagrees with me. By and large, Joba wasn’t throwing strikes. He was victimized by three bad ball calls and one borderline call that was negated by a generous strike call. Perhaps it was just nerves; I expect better results on Sunday.
Update: In the discussion below, Keith alerts us to a different pitch f/x graph that shows Joba was clearly getting squeezed by Hickox. Seven pitches in the zone were called balls. I report; you decide. · (25) ·
The third point of the season isn’t the best time to take stock and assess how the prospects in the minors are doing, but that’s not going to stop me. There’s been a decent amount of movement at the top, which is the result of just about everything: graduation, injuries, ineffectiveness, hissy fits and domination.
Here’s my updated look at the Yanks’ top 30 prospects, as they stand the day before some fresh blood is infused into the system. You can check out my preseason list for comparisons sake.
- Joba Chamberlain, RHP – right at 50 IP for his career, so he hasn’t passed the rookie limit yet … i think we’re all looking forward to seeing him in the rotation for the rest of the year (or at the least the smart ones are)
- Jesus Montero, C – surpassed all expectations for this year, there’s no one in the draft class that can knock him from this spot
- Austin Jackson, CF – improved his plate discipline, hitting for power, playing good D … there’s a lot to like here
- JB Cox, RHP – came back from TJ like a champ, much better than I expected
- Mark Melancon, RHP – see above
- Zach McAllister, RHP – went from sleeper to stud thanks to his lights out first half
- Dellin Betances, RHP – the walks are high, and the tired shoulder is a minor concern, but he’s doing about all you could ask him to do in his first attempt at full-season ball
- Ross Ohlendorf, RHP – yep, he’s technically still a prospect, and he’s better than his numbers suggest
- Alan Horne, RHP - if it wasn’t for the biceps injury, he would probably be in the bigs
- Andrew Brackman, RHP – too much talent to ignore, TJ or not
- Jose Tabata, RF – if you want to act like a baby I’ll rank you like one … lucky for him he’s just 19
- Brett Gardner, CF – hitting for enough power to keep pitchers honest, and that’s all he needs
- Jeff Marquez, RHP – finding out that Triple-A hitters make you pay when you don’t get the ball down
- Carmen Angelini, SS – not the best start to the year, but he’s young for his league and has loads of ability
- David Robertson, RHP – just keeps mowing guys down
- Dan McCutchen, RHP – is he the guy that dominated Double-A, or the guy that’s scuffling in Triple-A?
- Abe Almonte, CF – flashing all 5 tools and putting up the numbers … stud
- Austin Romine, C – having an impressive year at the dish and behind it, which is more than you can ask from a teenage catcher in full season ball
- Chris Garcia, RHP – getting back into game action was step 1, step 2 is putting in the work needed to be great, because he’s got all the talent he’d ever need
- Colin Curtis, LF – not flashy, but he does everything just good enough
- Jairo Heredia, RHP – too bad I don’t know what the “upper body injury” was
- Humberto Sanchez, RHP – still MIA
- Bradley Suttle, 3B – mashed his way into the top 20 between injuries this year after a brutal debut last year
- Juan Miranda, 1B – shoulder issues have sapped his power, but it was already clear that he’s a classic platoon first baseman/DH
- Kevin Whelan, RHP – almost a forgotten man in the system
- Ryan Pope, RHP – enigmatic isn’t the right word, but he’s … unique
- Frankie Cervelli, C – holding down a spot based on reputation after the injury
- Mike Dunn, LHP – hopefully he won’t be the top ranked lefty when I do the post-draft list, no offense to Mike
- Edwar Ramirez, RHP – still prospect eligible, and still striking out almost 2 batters an inning
- Justin Snyder, 2B – all he does is get on base and score runs
Just wanted to quickly pass along that Keith Law and BA’s Jim Callis will be chatting over at ESPN at 1 and 2pm today, respectively. It’s safe to assume the draft will be the main focus. You follow the chats free while they’re live, but once they end they hide behind the Insider wall. John Manuel has some of the latest buzz. Just about 24 hours away…
Update: Looks like they pushed KLaw’s chat back to 2. Apparently Steve Phillips is having a groundbreaking chat. · (12) ·
A comment in Paul’s insightful guest post got me thinking. The idea was comparing the 1990 team to the 2008 team. Clearly, there is a huge flaw in this. The 1990 team wasn’t nearly as talented as its 2008 counterpart. The 1989 team did not win 94 games and make the playoffs. And the 1990 team didn’t have a handful of future Hall of Famers.
But this did get me thinking. How did we go from the bottom of the AL East in 1990 to dominating in the strike-shortened 1994 season?
Now, this is not as deep a look as we can take into this matter. I’m not going to be able to comment on the environment in baseball at the time, because I don’t remember it as vividly as I’d like. But we can at least take the moves as they happened, and show how a last place team became a first place team, in just the fourth year after dwelling in the cellar.
While I absolutely love the Phillie Phanatic, I can’t imagine a mascot of that ilk having much of a role in the Bronx. Yankee fans just wouldn’t tolerate it. It seems, however, that for parts of a few seasons in the mid-1980s, the Yankees tried to convince the public that this guy would make a good Bronx mascot. As Emma Span writes on the Banter, Yankee fans wouldn’t have any part of it, and they routinely tried to beat up the Yankee Dandy. In typical New York fashion, I laughed at that. · (8) ·
So that didn’t quite go as planned tonight, eh?
Joba Chamberlain, on a strict 65-pitch limit during his first Major League start, couldn’t last through the third inning today, and while Dan Giese held the Blue Jays to one run over 3.2 innings, a quick hook by Girardi and a subsequent bullpen meltdown led to the Yanks’ third straight loss. And, oh, yeah, they’re back in last place.
We’ll start with Joba because outside of Joba, there isn’t much to say about this game. Joba was not as good as we hoped and not as bad as his short outing makes him out to be. In 2.1 innings, he allowed one hit and one earned run while striking out three. The bigger concern tonight were his walks. He allowed an un-Joba-like four walks in this short outing.
Some Yankees fan on this site accused Joba of nibbling a la Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy earlier this year. Chris accused Joba of trying to make the perfect two-strike pitch. As I noted then, that simply wasn’t the case tonight. Rather, Joba couldn’t put his pitches where he wanted to put them, and when he did, he wasn’t getting the benefit of the strike from Ed Hickox. Admittedly, Hickox’s zone was small for both teams, but that’s baseball.
Who knows to what Joba’s struggles can be attributed tonight? While Harlan Chamberlain told Kim Jones that Joba wouldn’t show his nerves on the outside, it seemed clear that he was a bit amped up for this start. He was overthrowing in that long first inning and just didn’t have a feel for his stuff. He settled down in the second, but by the time the third inning rolled around, he had reached his pitch count. It’s encouraging seeing him maintaining a K/9 IP rate of better than 11 in his short outing, and I expect him be calmer and more on target on Sunday.
With Joba out of the game, the Yanks had to fashion a lengthy bullpen outing. This would give Joe Girardi a small opportunity to see if some other relievers could get outs. The answer, we know now, was that they could not. Girardi inexplicably yanked Dan Giese, a starter after 65 good pitches, and the rest of the bullpen was one disaster after another until Chris Britton pitched. Hmmmm.
In the end, it was more of what we know and hate from the 2008 Yankees. The bullpen couldn’t get outs, and the offense was inconsistent. Bobby Abreu, A-Rod and Robbie Cano combined to strand 15 runners, and Cano looks utterly lost at the plate. Jose Molina had a game that will have Yankee officials strongly considering Chad Moeller as the next backup catcher when Jorge Posada rejoins the team later this week, and the Yanks remain 0-for-June.
During the game, Michael Kay was really laying into Robinson Cano. “The Yankees have to be worried,” he over-stressed. “Cano’s really struggling.” Kay, as he often does, went on and on about Cano’s struggles.
Now, we know Cano is struggling, and we know he’s swinging at everything. But here’s the reality: At this point last year, Cano’s batting average was .050 higher than it is now, and the second baseman had just 12 hits more than he did now in the same number of at bats. 12! That’s hardly anything.
As Mike said to me tonight, the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter on the season is one hit every other week. For Cano, all this means is that when it all clicks and he breaks out of this slump, we’ll forget Michael Kay’s overreactions and all of our concerns. That said, he has to start zoning pitchers. Swinging at everything just will not do.
Incredibly slow and boring night in the minors (plus I’m prepping the draft bunker for the end of the week), so I’m not going to drag this out. Here are the box scores for AAA, AA, A+ and A-. The highlights:
- Eric Duncan took an 0-fer and Phil Coke struggled in his first start at the AAA level.
- David Robertson and JB Cox combined for 2.1 perfect innings.
- Jose Tabata left after getting hit by a pitch in his first at-bat. He later complained.
- Austin Jackson picked up a single and Eric Hacker was eh.
- Mitch Hilligoss racked up only his seventh multi-hit game of the year.
- Kevin Whelan walked 5 in an inning and a third.
- Rob Semerano made his organizational debut by giving up 4 hits and 2 runs in an inning of work for Tampa. Yanks picked him up as a MiL free agent, and he’s no spring chicken. Just filler.
- Bradley Suttle hit a solo job.
- Jon Ortiz picked up another save, his 17th.
I was under the impression that tonight’s Yankees-Blue Jays game was some sort of momentous game. But when I went to look at MLB.com, ESPN.com and all the New York news outlets, I couldn’t find anything out of the ordinary about today. It is yet another game in which the Yankees will aim to finish the day at .500. That’s getting old.
In real news, today’s a big day in Yankeeland for the 65-70 pitches that Joba throws will forever set the course of the universe. Will Hillary Clinton drop out of the Democratic race for president this week? Will gas prices continue to rise throughout the summer? Will the new Coen Brothers movie be as funny as it looks? All of these questions — and more — will be answered after Joba throws the Most Important 65 Pitches Ever Thrown.
Okay, okay. So maybe it’s not that big a deal. Maybe that is just step one in what is bound to be a process, but that’s the same as expecting Yankee fans to one day accept the fact that no team will go 162-0, that A-Rod won’t hit 1.000 with a 4.000 slugging and that no pitcher — outside of Mariano Rivera — is going to be perfect every time out.
For tonight, expect about four or five innings. Expect some Blue Jays hitters to be more patient than usual. Expect to see how Joba adjusts to pitching a game instead of pitching on adrenaline. Expect to see some secondary pitches. And expect — as Mike does — no less than two fist-pumps. Anything else would just be disappointing.
Giambi 1B – His OPS of .910. Who saw that coming?
Cano 2B – Just take some pitches. Jeez.
Number 62, Joba Chamberlain P
Game Notes: Dan Giese is up to fill in that long reliever role. A confused Chris Britton doesn’t understand why Scott Patterson is heading back to Scranton this time around.
Over at the World Wide Leader, Jayson Stark penned a column that could really use an editor (or five) about the transition from reliever to starter at the Big League level. The column clocks in at 2634 words or about 40 words for every pitch Joba will throw tonight. Talk about tempered expectations. So my question to you, loyal RAB readers, as we while away the hours before Joba’s start is this: What are you expecting tonight out of Joba as he faces Roy Halladay in his first Major League start? And, yes, Mike, I know you’re expecting a 27-pitch, 27-out perfect game. · (37) ·
Less than two days away … are ya ready? Here’s some stuff to hold you over:
- KLaw takes a step back and looks at how the 2003 Draft unfolded. The line about Matt Antonelli & Mark Melancon? Totally stole that from me. Law also explains why teams should be allowed to trade picks. Sorry, but both of those pieces are behind the iron curtain of ESPN Insider.
- Both the NY Times and ESPN take a gander into the life of Pedro Alvarez. Interesting stuff.
- Amy Nelson explains how the Brewers can clean-up this year with all those extra picks.
- Bob Klapisch talks about how the Mets will screw up those three early picks.
- The UBBMD is still going on. I don’t have the time to follow along, so I just submitted a list of players I’d like to take in the second round. Tops on that list was Purdue RHP Josh Lindblom.
- Paul DePodesta talks about life in Padres’ war room.
- Saber Scouting ranks their Top 100 Draft Prospects.
- Jonathan Mayo has a new Mock First Round up. Brett Hunter? Bah! Give me upside or give me death!