River Avenue Blues

Mailbag: Pence, Hart, Shoppach, Ross, Nets

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Five questions this week, but four of them got relatively short answers. Make sure to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything at any time.

(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Chris Young)

Tucker asks: With the Cole Hamels extension, could Hunter Pence be a trade option for the Yankees? Could he help to replace Nick Swisher next year?

Pence, 29, is having a solid year (111 wRC+) but has been just a touch worse than his career norm (118 wRC+). His walk rate (8.6%) is better than his career average but otherwise the power numbers (.180 ISO) are normal. He’s hitting for a slightly lower average than usual (.267), most likely due to BABIP issues (.299 this year vs. .324 career). Pence has stopped stealing bases (only four so far) and the various defensive metrics say he’s trending downward in the outfield. He’s making $10.4M this year and will likely jump up to $14-15M through arbitration next year before becoming a free agent the following winter.

Now that all that is out of the way, sure. Pence definitely makes sense as a stopgap outfielder in 2013. My only concern is that the Phillies are going to market him as a superstar even though he very clearly is not. He’s a consistent, profile right fielder who never ever gets hurt. At the same point of his career, Dan Uggla was traded for a big league ready bullpen prospect (Mike Dunn) and a fringy utility player/everyday big leaguer (Omar Infante). Pence is a bit of a hacker and that concerns me, but I feel like the disconnect between the type of player he’s perceived to be and the type of player he actual is will make things difficult.

Chip asks: Would trading for Corey Hart be wise? The Brewers look to be on the edge of falling out of the race and Hart is signed at reasonable money for [next season]. Yeah, he sucks at defense and doesn’t take walks but I would imagine he’d outproduce Chris Dickerson (or they could somewhat platoon) next season.

The 30-year-old Hart is owed $10M next season, the last one on the three-year, $26.5M deal he signed in the middle of the 2010 season. He owns a 117 wRC+ this season, right in line with his career norm (115 wRC+). Apparently the Brewers would have to be overwhelmed to deal him, and Hart’s not a guy you go overwhelming his club to acquire. He’s similar to Pence in terms of raw production — both right-handed hitters too — but gives you cost certainty next year. He’s an option, but it always comes down to price.

(Kevin C. Cox/Getty)

Nick asks: Do you think the Yankees could look at Kevin Shoppach or David Ross to be the starter over Russell Martin next season?

Sure, I think so. Shoppach is a straight platoon player (126 wRC+ vs. LHP last three years) and Ross has been the best backup catcher in baseball since landing with the Braves (123 wRC+ overall last three years). Neither is a Gold Glove type defender but they’re not awful. The offense makes up for it. Both Shoppach and Ross are playing for less than $1.7M this season and will be free agents this coming winter. They’re both great stopgaps options as far as I’m concerned, though there are legitimate questions about Ross’ ability to be productive in more than 180 plate appearances or so.

Nico asks: Are there any MLB managers who buck the conventional righty-vs-lefty mentality when they’re facing changeup specialists with reverse platoon splits? Does Joe Maddon? Can we ever hope to see that from Joe Girardi in the Bronx?

Maddon has done it plenty of times it past — you’ll see it referred to as The Danks Theory around the web. Maddon first used it against …wait for it … John Danks in 2010, loading his lineup with left-handers — the switch-hitters batted left-handed as well — to take away his changeup. The result? They hammered him for eight runs in four innings. Tampa still does it occasionally but I don’t think I’ve ever seen or heard of another team doing it.

I can’t imagine the Yankees and Girardi will employ something similar anytime soon. It’s too against the grain I think. Tommy Milone, who shut the Yankees down and set a career-high in strikeouts in Oakland last week, is a perfect Danks Theory candidate as a soft-tossing changeup guy. Instead, New York has faced him twice this year with a right-handed heavy lineup and he’s pitched well both times. Alas.

Ori asks: With the Nets moving to Brooklyn and having a formidable roster now, do you think YES Network ratings will spike, and if so, will this help the Yankees in doling out more cash for a big name?

I don’t know much about basketball at all, but there sure seems to be a lot of buzz around the Nets these days, no? I have no idea how the financials work between the network and the team, but I have to think that higher YES Network ratings — regardless if it’s the Yankees, Nets, Yankeeographies, whatever — the better it is for the Yankees overall. The team has never had a problem with shelling out big bucks for a player though, and I don’t think improved YES ratings will cause ownership to suddenly scrap the 2014 payroll plan or anything like that.

Kiley McDaniel scouts High-A Tampa

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Over at ESPN in an Insider-only blog post, former Yankees intern Kiley McDaniel penned a piece with scouting notes on several players with High-A Tampa. He wrote at length about OF Mason Williams — who he compared to Jacoby Ellsbury — and C Gary Sanchez, but also chimed in on OF Tyler Austin, RHP Jose Ramirez, RHP Mark Montgomery, and some other power arms on the staff. Pretty much the only negative thing he had to say was that Sanchez tends to struggle with fastballs in on his hands.

McDaniel praised scouting director Damon Oppenheimer for landing such quality prospects (Austin and the pitchers, specifically) with low-round draft picks, which is pretty neat. “Opposing clubs’ scouts covering this Tampa squad were simultaneously commending the Yankees for their deep staff and wondering why their teams didn’t draft these talents,” he wrote. Anyway, like I said go check it out. It gets RAB’s highest level of recommendation.

Dickerson homers twice in AAA win

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2B David Adams took grounders at third base today, which is notable only because Alex Rodriguez broke his hand two days ago and the Yankees are suddenly looking for a stopgap third baseman. As Double-A Trenton manager Tony Franklin said: “Draw your own conclusions.”

Triple-A Scranton (8-7 win over Charlotte)
CF Chris Dickerson: 4-6, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI — 17 hits in his last 40 at-bats (.425) with three doubles, three triples, four homers, seven walks, and five strikeouts
2B Corban Joseph: 1-4, 2 RBI, 1 BB
SS Eduardo Nunez & LF Kosuke Fukudome: both 1-5, 1 K — Nunez stole a base … Fukudome doubled and drove in a run
DH Jack Cust: 0-3, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
1B Brandon Laird: 2-5, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 K — 14 hits in his last 32 at-bats (.434)
C Frankie Cervelli: 3-5, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 K — six hits in his last 14 at-bats (.429)
RF Darnell McDonald: 1-4, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K
3B Kevin Russo: 2-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
RHP Ramon Ortiz: 6 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 7/4 GB/FB — 56 of 86 pitches were strikes (65%) … picked a runner off first
LHP Juan Cedeno: 2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 2/0 GB/FB — 26 of 38 pitches were strikes (68%)
RHP Manny Delcarmen: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 1/0 GB/FB — nine of 13 pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Injury Updates: A-Rod, Swisher, Joba

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Got some late-evening injury news for you, courtesy of Marc Carig and Erik Boland…

  • Alex Rodriguez (hand) had a cast put on today and isn’t expected to miss any more than eight weeks. No word on the earliest possible return, but I suppose six weeks is a reasonable estimate. Either way, the Yankees expect to get him back before the end of the regular season.
  • Nick Swisher (hip) came through today’s workout fine but Brian Cashman said “he’s not a player for us tomorrow (against the Red Sox).” He didn’t rule out a return Saturday or Sunday but insisted the team will play it safe.
  • Joba Chamberlain (elbow, ankle) will throw a bullpen session for the big league coaching staff tomorrow and make another minor league rehab appearance — with Double-A Trenton or Triple-A Empire State — on Sunday. Cashman acknowledged that Joba is “getting closer” but wouldn’t say when exactly he’ll be activated.

Thursday Night Open Thread

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Lots more interviews coming in the Bronx, Ich. (Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

The Yankees had a scheduled day off today and from the looks of things, they might be getting some unscheduled rest this weekend as well. The Red Sox are coming to town for a three-game set starting tomorrow, but the current weather forecast calls for lots and lots of rain and thunderstorms. These two clubs have already played one doubleheader this season and frankly I have no interest in sitting through another. Hopefully the weather clears up and they get play all three games with limited (or preferably no) interruption.

Anyway, here is your open thread for the night. Matt Harvey will be making his big league debut for the Mets against the Diamondbacks in Arizona a little later tonight (vs. Wade Miley), plus MLB Network will be airing a game as well. Who you see depends on where you live. Talk about whatever you want here folks, the thread is yours.

Brewers designate George Kottaras for assignment

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The Brewers designated backup catcher Gorge Kottaras today, clearing room on the roster for starter Jonathan Lucroy as he comes off the DL. Martin Maldonado played well enough in Lucroy’s absence to assume the backup job long-term.

The 29-year-old Kottaras posted a 122 wRC+ in 116 plate appearances for Milwaukee this year thanks to his gaudy 20.7% walk rate (!). I wrote more about him in a Scouting The Market piece earlier this month, so check that out for a full breakdown. The Yankees have the best record in baseball and therefore the lowest waiver priority, so they’re unlikely to get a chance to claim him. If they want Kottaras — and they should since he’s an upgrade over Chris Stewart and a left-handed hitter they could platoon with Russell Martin — they’ll have to swing a trade.

Scouting The Trade Market: Wilton Lopez

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The third base situation figures to get a lot of attention in the days leading up to the trade deadline thanks to Alex Rodriguez’s broken hand, but the Yankees still have a need for a non-matchup reliever in their bullpen. Joba Chamberlain’s return from elbow and ankle surgery is so close that he’s actually going to be with the team in New York this weekend to show the brain trust what he can do in a bullpen session. His activation off the DL may or may not immediately follow.

Non-contenders are always the first place to look for help at the trade deadline and no one is non-contending like the Astros. They’ve won just two (!) of their last 22 games and 12 of their last 54 games since “peaking” at 22-23 in late-May. Carlos Lee is gone, Brett Myers is gone, and Wandy Rodriguez is gone. Could setup man Wilton Lopez be next? It’s certainly possible. Let’s see if he’s a fit for the Yankees.

The Pros

  • The Yankees are familiar with Lopez because he actually spent some time (2002-2007) in their farm system. He only made it into nine games during that time in part due to injuries, but also because he had a lengthy stint (2005-2007) on the voluntarily retired list. Lopez un-retired and spent two seasons in the Padres’ system before being claimed off waivers by Houston in 2009, where he’s been ever since.
  • The 29-year-old Lopez succeeds by limiting walks (career 1.66 BB/9 and 4.5 BB%) and getting ground balls (career 58.6%). His performance this season has been even better — 1.18 BB/9 (3.3 BB) and 59.6%.
  • A fastball-sinker-splitter pitcher, Lopez sits in the low-90s with the two fastballs and in the mid-80s with the split. A low-80s slider is a very rarely used fourth offering. The splitter helps prevent him from having a significant platoon split — he’s holding lefties to a .222 wOBA (.323 career) and righties to a .301 wOBA (career .291) this year.
  • Lopez is in his final pre-arbitration year and is making just $516k this season. He can’t become a free agent until after 2015 and he has at least one minor league option remaining. It might be two, I’m not 100% sure, but it’s definitely at least one.

The Cons

  • Lopez is not much of a strikeout pitcher. His 7.11 K/9 (20.0 K%) this year is actually a career-high but still below the league average for relievers. He gets plenty of swings and misses (9.9% this year, 9.3% career), but he’s around the plate so much that the ball gets put in play.
  • The health track record isn’t pretty. Lopez missed almost all of June with an elbow strain, most of Spring Training with forearm soreness, and about two weeks with nerve inflammation in the elbow last year. That doesn’t include all the stuff that happened years ago.

There’s no indication that the Astros are actually open to trade Lopez, I’m just working under the assumption that everyone on their roster is available. Seems reasonable given their record and recent moves. The recently acquired Francisco Cordero is already 2-for-2 in blown save opportunities though, so I suppose there’s a chance they’d prefer to install Lopez as closer for the rest of the season in hopes of boosting his trade value for the winter. Teams are always willing to pay for saves.

Middle relievers get traded all the time, for anything from cash considerations on the low end to a pair of strong prospects on the high end (think Mike Adams). Lopez is in the middle and probably a little closer to the high-end than the average. Giving up a real prospect for a reliever bites, but at least in this instance you’re getting a guy under control for three more years with a minor league option. That’s a lot of flexibility and potential future value. If the Yankees want to add a bullpen arm in addition to a possible return from Joba, bring Lopez back for a second tour of duty with the organization would be a fine target.