River Avenue Blues

Johnny Damon overplayed his hand

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With Nick Johnson back with the Yankees, Johnny Damon’s days in pinstripes are, barring a change of heart by both sides, over. According to reports, Damon wanted to stay in the Bronx, and he eventually lowered his demands to two years. He would not, however, compromise on the money. The Yankees, according to Ken Davidoff, smartly valued him at two years at $7 million per season, but Damon did not want to take a paycut from his $13 million salary. “I wanted it to happen. I have nothing but great things to say about the Yankees,” Damon said to Mark Feinsand. “If the Nick Johnson thing works out, it will be good for them. It’s part of baseball.”

I have to wonder why Damon let these negotiations get out of hand. Did Scott Boras think some team would give Damon $13 million over three or four years? Did Damon’s agent believe that the Bobby Abreu deal in 2009 — a one-year, $5 million — would not be revisited upon Damon? The Yankees were willing to take him back, and he wanted to return. Scott Boras, though, and perhaps Damon himself overvalued the left fielder, and now he’s going to end up taking a paycut to join another team.

Damon could have made it work for the right money; but the Yankees were willing to go in another direction; and now it’s over. Barring a rather ridiculous scenario such as the one Ken Rosenthal proposed in which the Yankees would trade Nick Swisher to free up money to resign the older and less versatile Damon, Johnny will sport another uniform next season, and that will be all his doing. “I’m not quite sure what I’m going to do,” Damon said. “I know there are some teams interested, but the Yankees are the best organization I’ve been a part of so far in my career. I wish them all the best.”

Yanks reach agreement with Nick Johnson

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Update (3:10pm): Looks like SportsCenter might have jumped the gun; T-Kep says Nicky J. still has to take his physical. That’s what I get for trusting ESPN.

2:17pm: ESPN just reported that the Yanks have officially signed Nick Johnson to a one year contract. Buster Olney says Johnson will make $5.5M in 2010 with a mutual option for 2011 worth another $5.5M. There’s also incentives based on plate appearances.

RAB Live Chat

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The difference between Posada and Molina’s game calling

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One of the most notable and certainly most annoying storylines from last season was Jorge Posada’s apparent inability to do anything right behind the plate. He’s slow, can’t frame pitches, can’t block a ball in the dirt, he goes out to the mound too many times, can’t do anything right, especially call a game. Just look at the stats:

Yankee pitchers with Posada catching: .264-.347-.426 against, 18.4 K%
Yankee pitchers with anyone else catching: .234-.298-.385 against, 22.5 K%

See? That right there tells you everything you need to know about Posada’s game calling ability. [/sarcasm]

Actually, yeah there’s definitely a difference between how certain catchers call games, but you can’t tell that based on just simple observation, or Joe Girardi’s idiotic decision to let Jose Molina catch certain pitchers (he sure helped A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of both the ALCS and World Series, right?). We now have the tools to dig deeper into this phenomenon, and Max Marchi at THT did just that.

Using PitchFX, Marchi broke down the how Posada and Molina called games for CC Sabathia last season, noting that the biggest difference is that Posada tended to rely on the big guy’s four-seam fastball while Molina favored the sinking two-seam variety. Here’s the breakdown so you can see for yourself:

CC's pitch selection by catcher, 2009

That’s the percentage of total pitches, so Posada called for 49% fastballs, 33% sliders, and 18% sinkers against lefty batters. Of course, there are many more factors in play here than just what the catcher calls for. Sabathia could shake them off, and certainly players evolve during the course of the season and may change up their patterns. Posada also caught CC’s first four outings, which were part of his customary slow start, and that probably skewed the results.

In general, a catcher’s ability to work with pitchers is over-stated. Saying a guy handles pitchers well is usually something reserved for catchers who can’t do anything else even decently, like Molina. What makes Posada so great is his bat at the most premium of positions, and moving him to designated hitter to let someone like Molina catch full time makes the team worse. A league average DH with Posada catching is greater than Posada at DH and a defensive specialist like Molina catching. It takes an awful lot of defense to make up for the complete lack of offense.

At 38-years-old, Posada’s not getting any better defensively, and chances are his offense will take a hit next season. However, the best team the Yankees can field features him starting behind the dish, even if it means sacrificing an extra 90 OPS points to the opposition. The difference in offense – 325 OPS pt advantage over Molina, for example – makes up for it.

What does Nick Johnson mean for the left field situation?

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Three Yankees who made significant contributions to the 2009 championship filed for free agency this winter: Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte. By December 18, they’ve essentially replaced all three. Andy Pettitte re-signed last week to fill his own spot. The Yankees traded for Curtis Granderson to replace Damon, and the soon-to-be-announced signing of Nick Johnson fills Matsui’s vacated DH spot. The replacements are not exact facsimiles of their 2009 counterparts, but then again, no one is.

One question many of us had upon hearing of the Yanks interest in Johnson: what does it mean for left field? Melky Cabrera isn’t the worst choice. He was, after all, the starting center fielder on the 2009 team. The problems arise when Jorge Posada needs a day off. That means both Melky and Francisco Cervelli in the lineup. In a normal backup catcher situation that’s not a huge deal, but because we can’t expect Posada to catch more than 120 games (and even that’s very optimistic), it means a lot of both in the lineup.

Had the Yankees re-signed Damon, they could have mitigated the situation for some games. Instead of resting Posada a full day, sometimes he could have played DH, with Damon playing left field. Say Posada catches 110 games this season. Under the current system, the Yankees will have both Melky and Cervelli in the lineup for 52 games, or 32 percent of the season. But, if Posada can DH for 30 more games, for a total of 140, then the Yankees would only have both Melky and Cervelli in the lineup for 22 games. That sounds a lot better.

With Johnson in the fold, that’s not possible. It has made me, and many others, wonder if the Yankees now plan to sign or trade for a full-time left fielder. Though the chances appear remote, the Yankees could still sign Damon, though they’d have to play him in left basically every day. Do they still see him as a full-time left fielder? If not, it creates a logjam at DH, though those usually find a way to become unjammed. In fact, Damon might be the only possibility for another offensive addition. The left field trade market appears bleak, and there aren’t many, if any, free agent outfielders who interest the Yanks.

To not sign another left fielder, however, leaves the Yankees vulnerable. Nick Johnson comes with a long medical history, and is no guarantee to stay healthy the entire season. If something happens to him in 2010, the Yanks would be in a very tough spot. Without any further additions, they’d probably move Nick Swisher to DH and have an outfield of Cabrera, Granderson, and Brett Gardner. Defensively that’s stellar, but offensively it would be among the lightest hitting trios in the league. Further, imagine the lineup when Jorge needs a full day off. It’s not a scenario anyone wants to see.

Many Yanks fans, myself included, dream of Matt Holliday in this scenario. From a pure performance perspective, he represents an ideal fit. Not only does he play left field full time, but he provides a middle of the order bat. Just imagine the Yankees batting order:

1. Derek Jeter
2. Nick Johnson
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Matt Holliday
6. Jorge Posada
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Nick Swisher
9. Robinson Cano

The scenario, as of right now, remains unlikely. Without contracts for any of the arbitration-eligible and reserve clause players, the team payroll stands at about $188 million. Add in another $6 to $7 million for Melky, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre, plus the money to fill out the rest of the roster, and the number gets very close to $200 million. Will the Yankees go far above that for a left fielder? It doesn’t sound like it.

Holliday will not come cheap. As he does for all of his clients, Scott Boras seeks the most possible money for Holliday. The Cardinals reportedly have on the table a five-year offer for about $15 million per year. Even if the Yankees matched that and Holliday preferred New York, that would boost payroll to over $210 million, and close to $215 million. Imagine, then, if they wanted to add another starter. They could easily start the season with a payroll over $220 million. From everything the Yankees have said this off-season, that’s not part of the plan.

As we’ve mentioned many times before, adding Holliday doesn’t just affect this year’s payroll, but the payroll for the next five years. The Yankees might not want to add that kind of commitment when they already have $140 million committed to the 2011 team, and that’s before re-signing Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Cashman has also called next year’s free agency class “incredibly more impressive than this one,” so the Yanks might choose to wait this one out, add one more pitcher and call it an off-season. They can then make a move on perhaps a better free agent next off-season.

There’s a chance, as always, that the Yankees see the sense in adding Holliday at this point and decide to increase payroll for him. At yesterday’s Granderson press conference, Hal Steinbrenner seemed open to the idea, but reluctant. “I’m not saying yay (sic) or nay, but I’m saying we’re operating at this number and that’s that.” The chance is open, but given the immense commitment it would require, I doubt the Yankees move in that direction.

If they’re done shopping for an outfielder, the 2010 Yankees enter the season with a big risk. If healthy Nick Johnson is a great addition, but any injury would leave the Yankees offense in a tough spot. Even if they add another good starting pitcher, that’s a rough bottom of the order. I’d like to see them add a higher caliber left fielder, but given the roster and payroll constraints, I don’t expect it.

Joba, Phil and the 2010 bullpen

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Everybody’s talking about pitching these days. Jorge Posada went on the FAN this week and voiced his belief that the Yanks could use another starter. Meanwhile, at yesterday’s Curtis Granderson press conference, the Yanks’ beat writers quickly turned the focus to pitching.

What came out of it were a few sensational stories. ESPN 1050 AM spent Thursday alleging that Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi both said that one of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would be in the starting rotation while the other would set up for Mariano Rivera. It sent Yankee fans into the usual bullpen-inspired Eighth Inning frenzy. Who will get exiled to pen and who will stay in the rotation?

After a few RAB readers e-mailed us, I consulted and reviewed the Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman media sessions. Neither of the two said anything close to what ESPN Radio spent the afternoon reporting, and while the team may not be committed to having both Joba and Phil starting all year, that is simply a function of innings limits than anything else. Listening between the lines made me believe that the Yanks are definitely eying Ben Sheets as a possible starter, but the team will give Phil and Joba every chance to excel as starters.

So what did the Yankee brain trust say? Well, Joe Girardi was at the mic first, and after the cursory Curtis Granderson statements, the focus turned to pitching. Does he want to see the team bring in another starter? “I don’t think you can ever have too much starting pitching. I really don’t,” he said. “Especially with the age of some of our starters, you don’t necessarily want to feel like you have to push them too far, and that was one of the things we were able to do.”

The next question was a loaded one. Could Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain both handle a 32-start workload next year? “I think Joba is more prepared than Phil because Phil didn’t throw 150 innings last year,” Girardi said. “It will be much more difficult to throw him in 32 starts.”

This statement from Girardi was one that made people think Phil would be ticketed to the pen. Of course, that doesn’t make sense if the Yanks want him to reach 150 innings. He certainly won’t get there pitching in relief.

In fact, the next question specifically asked if Hughes would move to pen, and Girardi denied it. This is where I think the Yanks’ interest in Ben Sheets started to show. “I’m not saying that,” Girardi said of a bullpen role for Phil. “That’s something that we’ll have to discuss and see how that fourth starting pitcher is, if he’s someone who can give you 32 starts.”

Ben Sheets, by the way, hasn’t made 32 starts since 2004. In his last season pitching in the Majors — 2008 — he took the hill 31 times. He would be the perfect complement for Phil Hughes and an innings limit.

In the end, the Yanks were mum with their plans. They had to be simply because they don’t have that pitcher — whether its Sheets or Justin Duchscherer or someone else — locked up. All we know is that Joba Chamberlain, as Brian Cashman said, has no innings limit while Phil Hughes does. One of them could wind up in the pen but only if the Yanks enjoy a surplus of pitching. Despite what the radio may tell us, it’s far to early to pigeonhole one of the live young arms for the Eighth Inning. Let’s wait until at least the end of March for that.

Mo wins 2009 Pro Athlete of the Year Award

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Mariano Rivera doesn’t need awards. His performance speaks for itself. He still receives them, of course, and the latest on his mantle is the Sporting News’s 2009 Pro Athelete of the Year Award. This isn’t his first time winning that award. The Sporting News awarded it to the entire 1999 Yankee team. Strangely, Joe Torre won the award in 1996, despite not actually being a pro athlete. Make sure to check out Anthony DiComo’s story on the award — not for the information, really, but for the accompanying video.

Now, if only the baseball writers had awarded Mo the Cy Young in 2005…