River Avenue Blues

What Went Wrong: Andy wasn’t so dandy

by 18 Comments

Andy Pettitte will forever be remembered as the last winning pitcher at Yankee Stadium. A week and a half ago, he threw five solid inning to earn himself the W against the Orioles in the Yankee Stadium finale. While the fans gave Pettitte, in potentially his last start, a huge ovation, the last few months of the season were not kind to Pettitte, supposedly one of the anchors of the Yankee rotation.

After the Yanks and Joba Chamberlain downed the Orioles 13-3 on Wednesday, July 30, everything was coming up roses for the Yankees. Counted out in May, the Yanks were four games behind Tampa Bay and just one game the Red Sox for the Wild Card lead. That tantalizing glimpse of postseason hopes would fade the next day.

Andy Pettitte, 12-7 with a 3.76 ERA, would draw the start against Jon Garland and the Angels. While the Yanks would plate eight, Pettitte gave up nine. Over the next few weeks, the Yanks would slip in the standings, and Andy Pettitte couldn’t buy an out.

From that July start until he shut it down early due a sore shoulder, Pettitte would make 11 starts and win just two of them. He would go 2-7; the Yanks would go 2-9. Pettitte threw 65 innings to the tune of a 6.23 ERA. He allowed 87 hits and 22 walks while striking out 51. Opponents hit .323/.374/.461 against him.

On the surface, Pettitte’s numbers didn’t change that much during that 11-start run. Over his first 139 innings, he had a K/9 IP of 6.92 and a K/BB of 3.24. Over those final 65 innings, he would strike out just over 7 per 9 innings, but he would strike out just 2.31 per walk. With the worse walk rate and the higher hit rate, Pettitte’s overall numbers slumped.

Watching the games, it seemed as though Pettitte just ran out of steam in August. The velocity on his fastball was down, and he couldn’t locate his pitches as well as he had been earlier in the year. While Mike Mussina adjusted to a new physical reality, Pettitte was trying to pitch as he always had but with little success.

Had Pettitte and the Yanks won three more of his 11 starts — or even four more — the Yanks would have been that much closer to the playoffs by mid-September. But it was not to be, and as the Yankees face a tough off-season, Andy Pettitte’s status, if he choose not to retire, will be front and center on the agenda. If the Yanks can find a way to ensure that first-half Pettitte shows up for a full year, they’ll be set. If not, I’m not sure for how much they should rely on Pettitte next year.

Last post removed

by 12 Comments

Upon further consideration, I’m taking the last post off the main page. No need to 1) link to a tabloid and 2) take down a guy just because he used poor logic. No need to point that out if we ourselves are using sound logic, right?

Anyway, if you must read it, it’s here.

What Went Wrong: The Catcher

by 40 Comments

The Yankees finished this season with the fourth best record in the American League, but a strong September wouldn’t be enough to catapult them into the playoffs. Dealing with both the demands of high expectations and the need to focus on the farm system, 2008 was a quasi-rebuilding year in which the Yanks were expected to compete. But somewhere along the way, things went wrong, and the Yankees will be home on Wednesday while four other AL teams begin their quests for the World Series title.

Over the next few weeks, we’ll delve into what went wrong with the Yankees. From injuries to unmet expectations, this season had its fare share of problems. Today, the catchers take center stage.

In 2007, the Yankee catchers, led by a career year from Jorge Posada, were the league’s best. In 689 plate appearances, Yankee catchers hit .323/.396/.502 with 19 home runs and 100 RBIs. While Wil Nieves had little to contribute, Posada was an MVP candidate and midseason back-up replacement Jose Molina hit .323/.338/.446 in limited playing time.

From the start, though, 2008 would prove to be a far cry from 2007 for Yankee backstops. Jorge Posada injured his throwing arm on a throw on Opening Day, and he wouldn’t be able to shoulder the catching duties this year. While he attempted a mid-June comeback, Posada wasn’t up to the task. In July, he opted for season-ending surgery.

His replacements, while adequate as backups, were abysmal as starters. On the season, Yankee catchers hit .230/.290/.335 with eight home runs and 45 RBIs. In 2007, Yankee catchers were tops in the AL in OPS; in 2008, they were ranked 14th out of 14 teams, dead last in the Junior Circuit. None of the five other catchers the Yanks used this year could do much of anything, and it cost the team dearly.

From a statistical perspective, the Yanks’ playoff hopes were severely damaged by Jorge’s shoulder. He nailed down 26 win shares in 2007 and just five in 2008. Overall, Yankee catchers contributed 13 win shares in 2008 after putting up 29 in 2007. At three win shares per victory, that swing of 16 nearly accounts for the Yanks’ missing the playoffs by itself.

To drive the point home, none of the replacements for Jorge Posada put up a positive VORP this year. Of course, this begs the question of replacement level because the Yanks were, in effect, using replacement level players all year with little to no success.

Of course, we can’t expect a healthy Posada to have enjoyed yet another career year in 2008. He probably wasn’t going to duplicate that .338/.426/.543 line, but had Posada produced in line with his career .277/.380/.477 line, the Yanks still would have had the top-producing backstop in the AL. Perhaps it wouldn’t have been enough by itself to bring the Yanks to October, but it would have gone a long way toward closing that six-game gap.

In the end, we all love Jorge Posada, and in 2008, we saw firsthand what would happen if Posada were to miss a part of the season. Derek might be the leader of the team and A-Rod, for better or worse, its offensive heart, but when Jorge Posada went down with a season-ending injury, the Yanks’ October dreams went down with him.

Pettitte, on the fence, thinks Moose might call it quits

by 24 Comments

During packing day at the Stadium today, Andy Pettitte stopped for a chat with the reporters. Pettitte hasn’t made a decision yet on 2009 and is still firmly on the fence. It sounds, however, that Mike Mussina may be retiring. I never thought I would want to welcome back Mussina over Pettitte, but after their respective 2008 campaigns, if I had to pick one, Moose would be my guy. For all this, the Yanks still plan to, somehow, add some experienced pitchers this off-season. Who those will be is anyone’s guess.

BA’s Top 20 Florida State League Prospects

by 7 Comments

Baseball America‘s look into each league’s top 20 prospects continued today with the FSL. Tigers’ uberstud Rick Porcello predictably topped the list, and the only Yankees’ farmhand to make the cut was Zach McAllister at #20. High-A Tampa a prospect wasteland for most of the year, so it’s no surprise the list is short on Yanks’ prospects.

The Eastern League comes out tomorrow, however the list was already leaked. Austin Jackson comes it at #10 if the list is correct. We’ll find out tomorrow.

Joba to go wire to wire as a starter?

by 48 Comments

One of the larger issues the Yankees will have to deal with this off-season is what to do regarding the rotation next year, specifically with Joba Chamberlain. Hints and rumors abounded that the Yanks would employ a similar strategy as this year; that is, start him in the bullpen and transition him mid-year, so that he can stay under his innings cap. It seems the Yanks are believers in the 30-inning rule, so Joba would be limited to around 130 to 135 innings next year. Not exactly what you want from a front line starter.

Peter Abraham, writing in his paper, not on his blog, discussed the topic with Joe Girardi. It seems that the team might actually get creative with their use of Joba, rather than try for the simplest method of limiting his innings, which is what they did this year.

“Will the inning restrictions be there next year? Possibly,” Girardi said. “But he’s going to be a year stronger. He’s got 100 innings, and part of that was rehabbing a little bit. It’s something we’ll discuss.”
…
“There are a lot of different things where you can be creative,” Girardi said. “If you have depth in your rotation, (Chamberlain doesn’t) have to make 32 starts like everybody else. … You skip a start here, those type of things.”

That means having four other viable starters who can shoulder the load while Joba skips starts. It also means having a viable sixth option, since we know that injury can strike at any time. Just another sign that the Yankees will have a busy off-season in the pitching department.

Mo to go under the knife

by 38 Comments

Mariano Rivera will have arthroscopic shoulder surgery on Oct. 6, reports Tyler Kepner, to clear up some calcification in his throwing arm. Rivera, who had been throwing with shoulder pain all season, will be ready for Spring Training. My nagging thought: The Yanks doled out very large contracts last year to two players in their late 30s, and both suffered shoulder injuries this year. While Jorge Posada and Rivera both earned their deals and are, in a sense, getting paid for past accomplishments, I can’t imagine the Yanks will give out too many more of these long deals to older players.