River Avenue Blues

Prospect Profile: Mike King

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(Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

Mike King | RHP

Background
King, 23, grew up outside Providence in Warwick, Rhode Island. He had a decorated career at Bishop Hendricken High School, one that included two state championships and a Rhode Island Gatorade High School Player of the Year Award. King pitched to a 0.69 ERA as a junior and a 0.30 ERA as a senior, and threw two no-hitters. He was also a member of various All-Academic teams.

Despite his high school success Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank King among the top 500 prospects for the 2014 draft, and he went undrafted out of high school. He followed through on his commitment to Boston College and pitched primary out of the bullpen as a freshman, posting a 2.93 ERA with a 35/12 K/BB in 43 innings. He made three starts and 13 relief appearances.

As a sophomore, King emerged as a valuable swingman, pitching to a 3.03 ERA with a 52/12 K/BB in 62 innings spread across eight starts and six relief appearances. King spent the summer with the Hyannis Harbor Hawks of the Cape Cod League, throwing 22 innings with a 3.27 ERA and a 19/5 K/BB. Baseball America did not rank him as one of the top 30 prospects in the league, however.

King took over as the staff ace as a junior and set Boston College single-season records with 16 starts and 104 innings. He managed a 3.29 ERA and a 61/31 K/BB in those 104 innings. His career 3.14 ERA is second best in school history behind former big leaguer Chris Lambert (2.84 ERA). King also ranks tenth on the career innings list with 209.1. He is one of the most successful pitchers in Eagles history.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked King as the 449th best prospect for the 2016 draft. The Marlins selected him in the 12th round (353rd overall) and signed him to a $100,000 bonus. That is $25,000 under slot for all picks after the tenth round. The Yankees acquired King, along with some international bonus money, from the Marlins last offseason for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith.

Pro Career
After such a big workload as a college junior, the Marlins took it easy on King following the 2016 draft, and had him throw only 30.2 innings in his pro debut. He posted a 4.11 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks while pitching mostly in the short season NY-Penn League. The Marlins had King spend the entire 2017 season with their Low-A affiliate. He had a 3.14 ERA (3.97 FIP) with 17.8% strikeouts and 3.5% walks in 149 innings.

The Yankees moved King much more aggressively in 2018. He started the season with High-A Tampa and finished it with Triple-A Scranton. Here are his numbers at each level this past season:

G IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 Whiff%
High-A Tampa 7 40.1 1.79 2.46 27.4% 6.1% 59.8% 0.22 13.5%
Double-A Trenton 12 82 2.09 2.70 23.9% 4.1% 45.2% 0.44 9.9%
Triple-A Scranton 6 39 1.15 3.20 21.8% 4.2% 53.8% 0.69 7.7%
Total 25 161.1 1.79 2.76 24.4% 4.7% 50.8% 0.45 10.3%

King ranked sixth in the minors in innings pitched this past season and, among the 510 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the minors, he ranked second in ERA and 11th in FIP. His strikeout (97th), ground ball (74th), and swing-and-miss (112th) rates were much further down the rankings, however.

Scouting Report
King has the prototypical pitcher’s build at 6-foot-3 and 210 lbs., and while he’s a stats over scouting report prospect, the scouting report is quite good. He gets most of his outs with a sinking two-seam fastball that sits 91-93 mph and will occasionally touch 95 mph. King commands the pitch exceptionally well. He uses it to pound the bottom of the zone and he can throw it to both sides of the plate. He’s quite adept at throwing that two-seamer inside to lefties for the comeback called strike, like so:

King has three quality secondary pitches but none rate as a legitimate out pitch at the moment. His changeup has good fade and is probably his most reliable offspeed pitch. King also throws a slider that shows promise, and the Yankees helped him add an upper-80s cutter late in the season with Triple-A Scranton. It could be that he’ll wind up a two-seamer/changeup pitcher with several variations of a cutter/slider breaking ball to keep hitters honest.

Nothing King throws is straight and I’m looking forward to him reaching the big leagues so we can get some Statcast data. He strikes me as someone who could be a weak contact type that consistently outperforms his peripherals, similar to the current version of CC Sabathia. King has a good repeatable delivery and he can put the ball where he wants it, especially with the two-seamer. That command helps everything play up.

2019 Outlook
After the season he just had, climbing from High-A to Triple-A, King is a lock to be invited to big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee next year. There’s a good chance he’ll make his MLB debut at some point next summer. King will be Rule 5 Draft eligible next offseason but I would be shocked if he’s not added to the 40-man roster and brought at some point next summer first. In all likelihood, King will go up and down a few times next season, presumably as a spot starter/emergency long man type.

My Take
There seem to be a very wide range of opinions on King and I lean toward “serviceable big leaguer” more than “impact starter.” I wish he had a putaway secondary pitch — I don’t think it’s a coincidence his swing-and-miss rate dropped considerably each time he was promoted this past season — but, if you’re only going to have one good pitch, a sinking two-seamer is a good one good pitch to have. King is about as safe a bet to have a big league career as you’ll find. I just think he’ll be more of a fifth starter/swingman type than a bona fide mid-rotation stalwart, and hey, teams need fifth starters and swingmen. It’s better to grow your own than pay a couple million for one in free agency.

The Padres are reportedly interested in Miguel Andujar, but there’s only one way it makes sense for the Yankees

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(David Maxwell/Getty)

Squint your eyes and you can see the makings of a powerhouse. The Padres have the game’s best and deepest farm system, much like the Yankees a year or two ago, and the Yankees rode that farm system to quicker than expected contention in 2017. San Diego’s farm system is absurd. They don’t have the same financial resources as the Yankees, but their prospect base is the best in the sport.

All winter long the Padres have indicated they want to use that prospect base to improve their big league roster. They’ve been connected to Noah Syndergaard and Corey Kluber, among others, so they’re not thinking small. It seems weird, a rebuilding team trading prospects for a veteran, but not every prospect will work out and it’s only smart to cash some in as trade chips before they flame out. The tricky park is knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Among the players the Padres have expressed interest in this offseason is Miguel Andujar. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman recently reported San Diego has Andujar on their radar, and remember, they wanted Andujar for Brad Hand at the trade deadline. The Yankees are said to be open to moving their young third baseman, though that was within the context of that potential Noah Syndergaard/J.T. Realmuto three-team blockbuster.

It makes sense that San Diego would have interest in Andujar. For starters, he’s really good, and he’s under control another five years. Every teams wants a Miguel Andujar of their own. Secondly, the Padres haven’t had a steady full-time third baseman since the first time they had Chase Headley. Nineteen different players played at least one game at third base for the Padres over the last four seasons. Nineteen! Andujar would put an end to that revolving door.

The Padres have pretty much everything a team could need in their farm system except a soon-to-be MLB ready third baseman. Yeah, they could put top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. or Luis Urias at the hot corner, but those guys are middle infielders, and they’re going to remain there. Putting one at third opens upon a hole on the middle infield. The Padres need a third baseman and Andujar is one of the top young third basemen in the game. It fits.

Andujar is a great fit for the Padres. The Padres are not a great fit — or even a good fit, I’d say — for the Yankees as a trade partner. Why? Their Major League talent base stinks. It stinks. Lefty reliever Jose Castillo is pretty awesome but you can’t trade Andujar for a package fronted by a reliever. Eric Hosmer just hit .253/.322/.398 (95 wRC+) and has seven years and $124M remaining on his contract. Wil Myers gives you Andujar defense without Andujar offense. Outfielders like Manny Margot and Hunter Renfroe don’t make much sense for the outfield heavy Yankees. The Padres don’t have much else to offer.

San Diego’s farm system is incredible and, in a vacuum, they could easily cobble together a prospect package good enough to get Andujar. This isn’t a vacuum though. The Yankees are the ultimate win now team and they can’t trade their starting third baseman (and one of their top hitters) for prospects. Sign Manny Machado to play third and trade Andujar for prospects? Okay, but why not sign Machado and keep Andujar at his near league minimum salary and not weaken the MLB roster? Crazy, I know.

Anyway, if the Padres want Andujar, there’s really only way this makes sense for the Yankees. It would have to be a three-team trade. Andujar to the Padres, Padres prospects to some third team, and a big leaguer(s) from that third team to the Yankees. Something like that. Andujar to the Padres, prospects to the Mets, Syndergaard to the Yankees. It would have to be something along those lines. Even then the Yankees would almost certainly have to sign Machado to come out ahead and not just break even.

I suppose the Yankees could trade Andujar for prospects and then trade those prospects for MLB help at the later date. That’s not really a three-team trade but it kinda is. My point is, the Yankees shouldn’t trade Andujar simply to restock the farm system. I know his defense is bad, believe me, but that’s a terrible reason to trade him for prospects and weaken the MLB roster. The Yankees need Andujar to contend in 2019. Why trade for a potential future Andujar when you have the real Andujar right in front of you, ready to help you win games?

The Yankees have built an enviable young position player core in a relatively short period of time and I am all-in on building around bats. Build around bats and buy pitching, especially when you have the Yankees’ financial firepower. I’m not saying I would make Andujar untouchable. Hardly. I just wouldn’t trade him for prospects. I want an impact big leaguer(s) in return and the Padres have literally none to offer. Their best trade currency is prospects, and unless the Yankees and Padres can figure out a three-team deal, sending Andujar to San Diego for prospects is a step backwards.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Nelson Cruz

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Cruz receiving a well-earned curtain call from the Mariners crowd. (Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The off-season has slowed to a crawl, and isn’t likely to pick back up until the New Year. With that in mind, I wanted to write a bit about a player that makes a great deal of sense for the Yankees under a specific set of circumstances. Those being:

  1. They are willing to go over the luxury tax threshold.
  2. They either miss out on or choose not to pursue Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado.
  3. They are willing to start Giancarlo Stanton in left field.

I don’t know the likelihood of any of these scenarios coming to bear – aside from my pessimistic certainty that neither Harper nor Machado is in the cards – but there’s not much else to think about until more chips start falling. So, with that in mind, how would a full-time, big-bopping DH fit into the lineup?

Let’s talk about Nelson Cruz.

Background

The 38-year-old Cruz was a late bloomer, having signed by the Mets out of the Dominican Republic as an 18-year-old with no fanfare, and staying in the Dominican Summer League for three full years. The Mets sent him to the A’s in 2000, and he was stuck in the low minors for another three years, before breaking out across High-A and Double-A in 2004. Despite his robust .326/.390/.562 slash line in 2004, the A’s dealt him to the Brewers for one year of utilityman Keith Ginter that off-season.

Cruz performed well in the upper minors for the Brewers (.289/.385/.537), but was dealt to the Rangers at the following trade deadline. He was an up-and-down guy for Texas for two years, before finally landing a full-time gig with the team in 2009 – his age-28 season. Cruz has been one of the premiere right-handed power hitters in the game from that point forward, with the lone black mark on his record being his 2013 PED suspension.

Offensive Performance

Cruz just wrapped-up a four-year, $57 MM deal with the Mariners, and that’s as good a sample size as any:

AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR K% BB% BABIP
2015 .302/.369/.566 158 44 25.0% 9.0% .350
2016 .287/.360/.555 148 43 23.8% 9.3% .320
2017 .288/.375/.549 147 39 21.7% 10.9% .315
2018 .256/.342/.509 134 37 20.6% 9.3% .264

It’s almost metronomic, isn’t it? Cruz’s 2016 and 2017 are virtually identical, his walk and strikeout rates are steady, and the range in his ISO across these four seasons is a scant .016. That’s what you want in a middle-of-the-order bat. Of course, the issue of 2018 being a comparatively down year for Cruz cannot be ignored, nor can the fact that he’s 38. So is there anything out there that shows that 2018 was a fluke, and not age-related?

Why, yes, there is:

Cruz’s exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit percentage were all comfortably above league-average last year. Moreover, all three were right around his previous norms – if not a tick above. In fact, his 93.9 MPH exit velocity was the second-best mark in all of baseball. As a result of this, his expected wOBA (or xwOBA) 34 points higher than his actual mark. And, while these metrics aren’t perfect, it seems to indicate that Cruz’s bat hasn’t lost any of its thunder just yet.

Defensive Performance

Cruz is a designated hitter, and that’s all that really needs to be said. He played a total of 54.1 innings in the outfield these last two years, and that’s 54.1 innings more than he should have played.

Injury History

Cruz has been incredibly durable over the last half-dozen years or so, only hitting the DL once since the beginning of 2012. And, while that happened last year, it was the result of him slipping down the dugout steps. He has been banged-up, of course, but he averaged 152 games per season with the Mariners. Cruz’s age may make him more of an injury risk, but letting him sit between at-bats mitigates that fear at least a bit.

Contract Estimates

FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors both project a two-year deal worth around $15 MM per season. His market is limited to American League clubs, which might make him more likely to settle for a one-year deal, or an incentive-laden screed with a vesting option. And there are no qualifying offer considerations here, which helps.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

Assuming the above criteria are in-play, then yes – absolutely. Cruz is a lock to take a short-term deal due to his age and lack of versatility, and he has been nothing but terrific over the last several years. He’s right-handed, which further skews the lineup … but I genuinely don’t believe that matters. He has no disconcerting platoon splits, and, given that Safeco is hell on right-handed power hitters, he might even improve in another park. I fully believe in Cruz’s ability to be an offensive juggernaut for another year or two.

And, you know what: I think he makes sense if the Yankees are blowing past the tax and signing Machado to play SS and/or 3B, I’d still want to see Cruz in-play. You can never have enough quality bats.

Update (10:32am ET): Well, so much for that idea. Cruz has agreed to a deal with the Twins, according to multiple reports. Jon Heyman says Cruz will earn $14M in 2019 with a $12M club option ($300,000 buyout) for 2020, so that’s $14.3M guaranteed.

Prospect Profile: Nick Nelson

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(@MiLB)

Nick Nelson | RHP

Background
Nelson grew up on Florida’s panhandle in Panama City. The just turned 23-year-old starred at Rutherford High School and the Giants selected him in the 31st round (928th overall) of the 2014 draft, though Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank him among the top 500 players in the draft class. Nelson did not sign with San Francisco and instead headed to Gulf Coast State College, a two-year school, in his hometown.

As a freshman with the Commodores Nelson made six starts and one relief appearance, throwing 24.1 innings with a 2.96 ERA and a 22/11 K/BB. He also hit .339/.369/.540 with seven homers in 207 plate appearances as the team’s regular first baseman. Despite his two-way success, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Nelson among the top 500 prospects for the 2015 draft following his freshman year, and he went undrafted.

Nelson was a workhorse on both sides of the ball as a sophomore, leading the team in innings (by 19.1) and falling one short of the team lead in plate appearances. He had a 4.48 ERA with a 99/38 K/BB in 90.1 innings and hit .295/.337/.504 with a team-leading 12 homers in 246 plate appearances. Nelson was committed to the University of Florida for his junior season. He would’ve remained a two-way player with the Gators.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Nelson as the 325th best prospect in the 2016 draft class and the Yankees selected him in the fourth round, with the 128th overall pick. Despite that commitment to Florida, the Yankees were able to sign Nelson to a below-slot $350,000 bonus. Slot money for the 128th selection was $455,400. The bonus pool savings were redirected to first rounder Blake Rutherford.

Pro Career
Nelson was sent directly to the rookie Pulaski Yankees after signing, where he had a 3.38 ERA (5.82 FIP) with more walks (22) than strikeouts (19) in 21.1 innings. Because he faced exactly 100 batters, it works out to a neat 22.0% walk rate and a 19.0% strikeout rate. Nelson spent the entire 2017 season with Low-A Charleston. He threw 100.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA (3.82 FIP) to go with a good strikeout rate (24.3%) and a not-so-good walk rate (11.1%).

The Yankees held Nelson back in Charleston to begin the 2018 season and he had a 3.65 ERA (2.25 FIP) with 34.7% strikeouts and 6.9% walks in five starts and 24.2 innings before being bumped up to High-A Tampa. With Tampa, Nelson threw 88.1 innings with a 3.36 ERA (3.12 FIP) and a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 12.5% walk rate. He also made three spot starts with Double-A Trenton (six runs in 8.2 innings). All told, Nelson had a 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.5% strikeouts and 12.1% walks in 121.2 innings in 2018. He also participated in Instructional League after the season.

Scouting Report
Nelson is not the biggest guy on the mound (6-foot-1 and 195 lbs.) and, at Gulf Coast State, he was mostly 90-92 mph with his fastball. Now that he’s spent two years pitching full-time and working with the Yankees’ velocity gurus, he sits 94-96 mph and tops out at 98 mph. His fastball has some sink on it too, though his 46.9% ground ball rate this past season is nothing to write home about it.

Nelson’s bread-and-butter is a hammer low-80s curveball that is his primary source of swings and misses. He’s still working to develop a changeup — at times it’ll look like a true swing-and-miss pitch — and this past season the Yankees had him tinker with a slider, which is still rudimentary. For all intents and purposes, Nelson is a fastball/curveball guy who is trying to develop a reliable third pitch.

Despite a fairly simple delivery he repeats well enough, Nelson does struggle to throw strikes. He has below-average control and well-below-average command. Nelson started throughout college and he’s been a starter his entire pro career thus far, though it’s tough to see him remaining in that role given his lack of a reliable third pitch and his inconsistent strike-throwing ability. Add in a no nonsense bulldog mentality and Nelson sure seems destined for the bullpen at some point.

2019 Outlook
It seems to me Nelson is ticketed for Double-A Trenton to begin next year. He had a successful stint with High-A Tampa this past season and the Yankees have more starters than rotation spots for High-A Tampa, so the numbers crunch plays a role here as well. Nelson will be Rule 5 Draft eligible next offseason and my guess is the Yankees will give him at least one more year as a starter, maybe two, to see whether he figures out a third pitch and/or how to throw the ball over the plate consistently. There’s still an entire season to play out, but, right now, I expect the Yankees to add Nelson to the 40-man roster next winter to remove him from the Rule 5 Draft eligibility pool.

My Take
I’m a Nick Nelson fan. I don’t think there’s much hope for him to remain a starter long-term — that’ll take a big and sudden improvement in his changeup and/or control and how often does that happen? — but the fastball/curveball combination is legit and I think he’ll be able to out-stuff hitters as a one-inning air-it-out reliever. Give him another season to start because things might click. If the Yankees move Nelson into the bullpen though, he could become a big league option in a hurry.

Sonny Gray is still a Yankee as 2019 approaches, and it could mean one of three things

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(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

Against all odds, Sonny Gray remains with the Yankees as New Years approaches. Brian Cashman all but shouted from the rooftops (multiple times, at that) that Gray would be traded this offseason, yet he’s still a Yankee, even after the team addressed their rotation needs with J.A. Happ, James Paxton, and CC Sabathia. I can’t say I expected Gray to still be with the team on December 26th.

There have been no shortage of Sonny Gray trade rumors this offseason. Here’s a quick recap of we’ve seen and heard about the veteran righty these last few weeks:

“As far as Sonny Gray, (we) continue to assess all options with him,” assistant GM Mike Fishman said the George King on the final day of the Winter Meetings. “There are various opportunities to consider, different types of deals that are being offered. We are weighing all our needs, both now and future needs and prospects and Major League pieces and what holes we can fill on the Major League roster.”

You needn’t try hard to see Gray as a strong bounceback candidate. His stuff is more than fine — his velocity and spin rates and everything else are as good as ever — and, since joining the Yankees, he has a 6.55 ERA (6.06 FIP) in 88 innings at Yankee Stadium and a 2.84 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 107.2 innings on the road. Gray’s been an ace on the road and a disaster at home. Add in his age (29) and pre-Yankees track record and you’ve got a great buy-low candidate.

Despite all of that, meaning Cashman’s trade declarations and the eleven interested teams and Gray’s status as a buy-low player, Sonny remains with the Yankees. I honestly thought trading him would be one of the first moves the Yankees made this offseason. Instead, it’s shaping up to be one of the last. There are three possible reasons why Gray is still a Yankee.

1. They haven’t found the right deal. This seems most likely to me. The Yankees want to trade Gray — maybe not want to, but resigned to it at this point — but they’re not going to give him away either. They have a trade chip with legitimate value and they want to make sure they cash it in appropriately. So they’re taking their time. Spring Training is not for another seven weeks or so. What’s the rush?

2. They’re having second thoughts. Maybe keeping Gray as a swingman/sixth starter isn’t such a bad idea? There are reasons to keep him around. James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are known to visit the disabled list from time to time, CC Sabathia just had an angioplasty, and Jordan Montgomery is not due back until midseason. Yeah, he’s had issues at Yankee Stadium, but Gray is a viable MLB starter, and the Yankees may’ve decided he’s a better depth option than Domingo German or Luis Cessa or Chance Adams or whoever. And hey, the GM dumping on you all offseason could be a great motivator. Sonny will have a chip on his shoulder next year no matter what uniform he’s wearing.

3. They totally botched it. Cashman’s public declarations backfired and now teams are lowballing the Yankees. “You don’t want Gray and need to clear his projected $9.1M salary to do other stuff, so we’ll take him off your hands, but we’re not giving you much in return.” That sorta thing. Definitely possible! I don’t think this is the case though. Too many teams are involved and there seems to be something of a bidding war. That’s why Cashman made those comments about Gray. Because he knew plenty of teams would want him anyway. He wouldn’t have said those things otherwise.

* * *

I didn’t expect Gray to still be a Yankee on December 26th but I do still believe he’s going to traded at some point. It seems like they’ve reached the point of no return. The frustration was almost palpable every time Cashman, Aaron Boone, and Larry Rothschild were asked about Gray this past season. They’ve tried to get him straightened out and it hasn’t happened, and they seem ready to move on.

Coming into the offseason, I thought the Brewers were the best trade match for Gray. Now it seems things have shifted to the Reds. They recently picked up two rental starters in Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, and their new pitching coach Derek Johnson was Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, which can’t hurt. Cincinnati is going for it — I commend them that for that, even if they are only going from 67 wins to 82 wins or whatever — and Sonny could be their next target.

No matter where he winds up, it still seems inevitable the Yankees will trade Sonny Gray at some point before Spring Training. The relationship appears to be beyond repair. I’m just not sure anyone thought it would take that long. It could be the Yankees screwed it up with their public comments, or it could be they’ve decided to keep him. Most likely, they’re just taking their time and making sure they get the best deal since there’s no reason to rush at this point of the offseason.

The Cardinals, the Athletics, and two recent moves that could potentially impact the Yankees

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(Jason Miller/Getty)

Baseball is a zero-sum game. There are only so many wins to go around and every win you add to your roster is a win you take away from everyone else. Everything is interconnected. The Yankees traded for James Paxton? Well, that impacted how the Mariners proceeded with the rest of their offseason, and thus how several other teams proceeded with their offseasons. Everything affects everything else.

In the annual mad transaction rush before the holidays last week, several moves were made that have an indirect impact on the Yankees. Some are more applicable to the Yankees than others, of course, but all those moves do change the offseason calculus for Brian Cashman & Co. Here are two recent transactions and their potential trickle-down effect on the Yankees.

Cardinals sign Andrew Miller

The Cardinals gave Miller a two-year contract with a vesting option to serve as their primary high-leverage reliever. He might close, he might set up, he might do a little of both. Miller joins flamethrower Jordan Hicks and rookie Dakota Hudson in the late innings for St. Louis. The Yankees reportedly had interest in a reunion with Miller and now he’s no longer available. Stinks.

Miller’s deal with the Cardinals is notable because, according to Alex Pavlovic, the Giants had been waiting for him to sign before exploring opportunities to trade their own lefty relievers, specifically Will Smith and Tony Watson. All the teams that lost out on Miller — that includes the Yankees, obviously — could now shift gears and discuss Smith and Watson with San Francisco. They might be the best lefties on the market other than Zach Britton.

Smith, 29, returned from Tommy John surgery and threw 53 innings with a 2.55 ERA (2.07 FIP) and very good strikeout (33.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates in 2018. Remove intentional walks and Smith had a 5.4% walk rate. That’s about as well as you could reasonably expect a pitcher to perform in his first year back from elbow reconstruction. Smith will be a free agent next winter and MLBTR projects a $4.1M salary in 2019. A bargain for a reliever of this caliber in his final arbitration year.

The 33-year-old Watson had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) in 66 innings this past season, and he too posted strong strikeout (27.6%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He was primarily a sinker guy with the Pirates back in the day but is now more of a four-seamer/slider pitcher, which has led to more strikeouts and fewer grounders. Watson has an unusual contract. He’s guaranteed only $9M from 2018-19 but a boatload of incentives could nearly double it.

The Yankees tried to sign Watson last offseason. Barring a change of heart (always possible), they likely still have some lingering interest. Watson’s contract is complicated and his $4.5M luxury tax hit could quickly become $7M thanks to the bonuses (the exact bonus criteria is unknown), but maybe that’s not a dealbreaker. Smith is younger and cheaper, and he was better this past season. That said, he’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

Watson and/or Smith would both be strong additions to the bullpen and we know the Yankees are looking for two relievers. They may be left-handed, but they’re not strict left-on-left matchup guys. They can work full innings. Now that Miller’s off the board and the Giants are ready to gauge the market on their relievers, the Yankees could touch base and rekindle their interest in Watson, or try for Smith.

Athletics trade for Jurickson Profar

Barreto. (Ezra Shaw/Getty)

Profar was the centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan but we never did hear anything about the Yankees having interest in him. Not this offseason, anyway. We’ve certainly heard it in the past. Instead, the rebuilding Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays last week. Long story short, Texas traded Profar for four Double-A prospects and some international bonus money.

The trade means two things for the Athletics. One, they will not re-sign Jed Lowrie. They have their second baseman in Profar. “Jed was huge … I cannot overstate how important Jed was to this team, and we certainly wish him nothing but the best as his career moves forward,” said A’s GM David Forst to Chris Haft following the trade. Profar will take over at second base and Oakland will redirect their money to starting pitching.

And two, longtime top prospect Franklin Barreto still doesn’t have a place to play. I thought the A’s would move on from Lowrie and install Barreto at second base, but nope, they added Profar. The soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto has been a consensus top 100 prospect four years running and, prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Originally a shortstop, Barreto has spent time at second base in the minors and majors. He has the arm and range to play shortstop in the bigs, but is better suited for second because his arm at short can be a little erratic. As a hitter, he uses the whole field and has more power than you’d expect from someone his size (5-foot-10, 190 lbs.). He needs to improve his plate discipline to get the most from his above-average bat and surprising power. His plus speed makes him a basestealing threat … If he can become a bit more polished, he can be a first-division regular at second base.

Barreto has had some cups of coffee with the A’s the last two years, hitting .215/.252/.424 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 151 MLB plate appearances. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A and is a career .284/.342/.458 (113 wRC+) hitter with 34 homers in 192 games at the level. It seems like it’s time to see what Barreto can do at the MLB level, you know? Instead, the A’s traded for Profar to play second base.

I don’t blame Oakland one bit. As a small market team, their windows to win are relatively short, and Profar is much better able to help them capitalize on their current window than Barreto. And besides, it’s not like Profar is an older veteran. He’s a 25-year-old former super-elite prospect who seemed to come into his own this past season. There’s a reason he was included in my offseason plan. It appears Profar is about to really break out.

Anyway, the Profar trade means Lowrie has one less suitor, and it may mean Barreto is available in a trade. The Yankees need a middle infielder and they could now pursue Lowrie or Barreto. The A’s really need rotation help. Is there a Sonny Gray-for-Barreto trade framework that makes sense? Oakland has interest in a reunion with Sonny, remember. And if the two teams can’t find common ground in a Barreto trade, is Lowrie’s price right for the Yankees now that the A’s are out of the picture?

* * *

I thought about including the Dodgers releasing Homer Bailey in here as well but nah. He’s pitched so poorly the last few seasons (6.25 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 231.2 innings from 2014-18) that, even at the pro-rated portion of the league minimum as a released player, he doesn’t have many (any?) redeeming qualities. Yeah, Bailey would be a low risk pickup, but it’s also low reward. The Yankees have signed worse pitchers though, so who knows.

The Bailey thing would be whatever. Low cost, low risk, low impact, etc. The Giants putting their top lefty relievers on the trade market and Lowrie having one fewer suitor are not insignificant offseason developments, however. Ditto the Barreto thing if the Athletics do make him available. The Miller signing and Profar trade had nothing to do with the Yankees directly, but those moves do have a domino effect around the league, and the Yankees could be among the teams that benefit.

Tuesday Links: MLB-Cuba Deal, Streaming Rights, Prospects

by

Aroldis Chapman, Orlando Hernandez, and Cuban catcher Jorge Saez. (@YankeesPR)

The holidays have arrived and hot stove news has come to a crawl, so here are some miscellaneous — but not insignificant — links and bits of news to check out.

MLB announces agreement to bring Cuban players to MLB

Last week MLB and the MLBPA announced an agreement with the Cuban Baseball Federation that “will provide Cuban baseball players with a safe and legal path to sign with a Major League Club.” Here’s the press release. Many players, including Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, defected from Cuba by being smuggled off the island by criminals, and were later threatened and shaken down for money. This new agreement helps prevent that.

“Establishing a safe, legal process for entry to our system is the most important step we can take to ending the exploitation and endangerment of Cuban players who pursue careers in Major League Baseball,” said MLBPA chief Tony Clark in a statement. “The safety and well-being of these young men remains our primary concern.”

Under the MLB-CBF agreement, players who are at least 25 years old and have played six years in Cuba must be made available to MLB teams. CBF clubs can also choose to make younger players available. When a player signs with an MLB team, the MLB team must pay his former club in Cuba a release fee that follows the same formula as Japanese players (explained here). This is, truly, great and historic news for baseball. There is now a safe and proper channel for bringing Cuban talent to MLB.

MLB may transfer in-market streaming rights to teams

This is potentially huge. According to Josh Kosman, MLB “favors a plan” in which in-market streaming rights would be transferred from the league to individual teams. The Yankees and several other teams have been pushing hard for this for years. This means that, if you live in the Yankees’ home market, you would no longer have to be a cable subscriber to watch the YES Network. You could cut the cord and subscribe to the team’s streaming service instead.

The catch here is that when MLB transfers in-market streaming rights to teams — “when” is more appropriate than “if” here because this does feel inevitable, if not now then down the road — the teams will probably turn around and sell those streaming rights to the highest bidder (Amazon, Google, Netflix, etc.). Amazon is reportedly making a big push to secure regional sports streaming rights and I’m sure they’d love to get their hands on the Yankees. So, rather than buy an in-market streaming subscription straight from the Yankees or MLB, you’d have to sign up for Amazon’s video service. We’ll see. None of this has happened yet but things are heading in this direction.

Three Yankees make top GCL prospects list

I missed this a few weeks ago. Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrapped up their annual look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league with the rookie Gulf Coast League. Three Yankees made the list: OF Antonio Cabello (No. 7), OF Anthony Garcia (No. 12), and RHP Yoendrys Gomez (No. 14). Baseball America posted Cabello’s full scouting report on Twitter, so check that out. He ranked one spot ahead of Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez, the 11th overall pick in the 2018 draft, on the GCL list.

The 6-foot-5 and 204 lb. (and 18-year-old) Garcia led the GCL with ten homers in 53 games this year. He also struck out 40.6% of his plate appearances. The Baseball America scouting report gives him 70 power on the 20-80 scouting scale and, in the chat (subs. req’d), Ben Badler compared him to Domingo Santana. That’d be a nice outcome for a $500,000 international signee. Here’s part of the scouting report on Gomez:

Gomez ran his fastball up to 96 mph this season in the GCL, parking in the low-to-mid-90s. He throws with downhill angle and locates his fastball well to both sides of the plate for his age. Gomez had 10 strikeouts per nine innings in the GCL thanks in part to a tight, sharp curveball in the mid-to-upper 70s with good depth that flashes above-average to freeze hitters or gets them to chase. He showed feel for a mid-80s changeup that he’s willing to throw to both lefties and righties.

The Yankees signed the 18-year-old Gomez for a mere $50,000 two years ago and now he’s showing three pitches with good velocity and a potential swing-and-miss curveball. The Yankees seem to turn two or three of these small bonus kids into legitimate prospects each year. Domingo Acevedo ($7,500), Freicer Perez ($10,000) and Jonathan Loaisiga (not sure he even got a bonus) all fit in this group.

2019 Draft top prospects list released

With the college and high school seasons only a few weeks away, MLB.com released their first top 50 draft prospects list for 2019. Oregon State C Adley Rutschman is the consensus No. 1 player in the draft class and he’s probably the most locked in No. 1 pick this far out from the draft since Gerrit Cole in 2011. That doesn’t mean Rutschman is a lock to go first overall to the Orioles. It just means he’s the most clear cut No. 1 guy in quite some time.

The Yankees hold the 30th overall selection next year and they’ll keep that pick even if they sign a qualified free agent like Bryce Harper. Baseball America (subs. req’d) put together a super early 2019 mock draft recently and they have Rutschman going to the O’s with the top pick. Here’s who they have for the Yankees and that 30th overall selection:

3B Brett Baty (Lake Travis HS, Austin)
Why It Makes Sense: Baty will get talked about for both his prodigious strength in the lefthanded batter’s box and also the that he will be 19 and a half years old on draft day. This might not bother the Yankees as much as other teams, as New York just took high school catcher Anthony Seigler in the first round last year, who was also old for his class.

One, “Brett Baty” is an outstanding baseball name. And two, a 19-and-a-half-year-old high schooler in the first round? I can’t imagine that’s happened often. And geez, Seigler didn’t turn 19 until after the draft last year. He wasn’t that old for his class. Anyway, at this point in the draft season (i.e. it hasn’t started yet), any mock draft is almost certainly speculation more than hard “this team is on that guy” reporting. Lots can and will change between now and the draft.

As long as Damon Oppenheimer is the Yankees scouting director, the best place to start with potential draft targets is Southern California. He has an affinity for prospects who play where he grew up. One name to watch: California HS 1B/LHP Spencer Jones. Go check out the (free) MLB.com scouting report and tell me that kid doesn’t scream “future Yankees prospect.”