Kevin Gausman Archives - River Avenue Blues

Right on cue, the Manny Machado trade rumors have arrived

July 10, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

What, you didn’t think the trade deadline would pass without the Yankees being connected to Manny Machado at some point, did you?

The non-waiver trade deadline is exactly three weeks away now, and, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees are “showing serious interest” in Machado. Jon Heyman and Roch Kubatko add the Yankees have spoken to the Orioles about more than Machado too. They’ve asked about starters and relievers as well, including Zach Britton.

First things first: I’ll believe a big Yankees-Orioles trade will happen when I see it. Orioles owner Peter Angeles hates the Yankees, has for a very long time, and two sides have rarely done business over the years. It is worth noting the 89-year-old Angelos is not very active in the organization any more. His sons Lou and John are expected to make the final call on trades. Who knows what that means.

Anyway, when I first saw the Machado reports last night, I assumed one of three things is happening:

The Yankees have genuine interest in acquiring Machado.
The Orioles are using the Yankees to create a bidding war and drive up the price for other teams.
The Yankees are trying to drive up the price for rivals and other contenders who want Machado.

Machado is a hell of a ballplayer who would instantly make any team better. He’s hitting .309/.379/.555 (149 wRC+) with 21 home runs and nearly as many walks (10.5%) as strikeouts (13.1%). A difference-maker through and through. Machado can change the balance of power within a division all by himself. A few thoughts on the Machado rumors.

1. He’s a rental and that is a-okay. Machado will be a free agent after the season and the expectation is he will test the market and command a record contract. Trading for him and then signing him to an extension seems incredibly unlikely to me. He stands to make too much money after the season. I think you have to look at Machado as a rental and a rental only. Forget about an extension.

And you know what? That is perfectly fine. Rentals get a bad rap. Baseball is obsessed with years of control and I get it. I totally do. Better to have a good player for many years than half-a-year. The goal right now is winning the 2018 World Series though. That’s the goal for the Yankees. Machado would unquestionably and significantly improve their World Series chances. How could you say no to that just because he’s a rental?

2. So where’s he going to play? This is the big question. Machado insists he wants to play shortstop — “I’m a shortstop. I play shortstop,” he said to Marc Carig following last night’s game — even though he hasn’t been great there this year. The defensive numbers hate him (-18 DRS!) and the eye test isn’t kind either. Machado let a few playable balls get by him yesterday. Every time a ball was hit his way, it seemed like he was on the ground.

The Yankees have a defensively superior shortstop in Didi Gregorius and it’s hard to think they’d displace Didi for Machado. Gregorius at short and Machado at third is the optimal defensive alignment. Rosenthal hears the Yankees are unlikely to include Miguel Andujar in a Machado trade and would instead stash Andujar in Triple-A the rest of the season, which would stink and be undeserved, but what else could they do?

Back in the day, when the Yankees acquired Alex Rodriguez, they made sure A-Rod was on the board with the move to third base before completing the trade. They didn’t make the trade, then surprise him with the position change. I have to think a Machado trade would play out similarly. The Yankees will want to know he’s on board with playing third base before making the trade. Machado’s insistence on playing short could be a dealbreaker.

3. There’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength. Yes, the Yankees absolutely need another starting pitcher. They need two starters, really. That doesn’t mean they should forget about Machado though. For starters, the front office can walk and chew gum at the same time. Working through a Machado trade won’t prevent them from getting a starting pitcher(s). Rotation help remains the priority.

Secondly, there’s nothing wrong with improving a strength. The Yankees already have one of best offenses in baseball and Machado would make it even better. Machado, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton would give the Yankees three elite power bats and create that much more breathing room for the pitching staff. Adding Machado wouldn’t prevent the Yankees from getting a starter and there would be no diminishing returns offensively. It would make the offense that much more devastating.

4. Don’t forget about the luxury tax! Machado is making $18M this year, you know. Trade for him on the July 31st deadline and his pro-rated luxury tax hit the rest of the season is about $6M. The last time I ran the numbers, the Yankees had about $13M in wiggle room under the $197M threshold. The Yankees appear to have enough room to add Machado, but my numbers are just an estimate, and the Yankees will need payroll space to add a pitcher(s) plus September call-ups and all that.

This could be a situation where the Yankees insist the Orioles take Neil Walker and the remainder of his $4M salary back to offseason money a la Tyler Clippard in the Todd Frazier trade last year, and even then they may need the O’s to eat a few bucks to make this work. Point is, the luxury tax is something to keep in mind here. The Yankees worked too hard and too long to get under the luxury tax threshold this season. They’re not blowing it up at the deadline. They’re going to want to make sure they have enough payroll space to get all the pieces they need.

5. What about those pitchers? I had a feeling a “the Yankees are interested in Machado” rumor was coming at some point. I am weirdly more interested in the Yankees touching base with the Orioles about their pitchers. Britton’s a rental and he’s going to be traded. There is no such thing as too many good relievers and Britton would effectively replace Chasen Shreve in the bullpen. Works for me.

As for the starters, I have to think the rumor is referring to Kevin Gausman and/or Dylan Bundy. Alex Cobb stinks now and is expensive, so forget him. Andrew Cashner? Meh. Gausman and Bundy are younger, better, cheaper, and under team control longer. They are pretty much exactly what the Yankees are looking for in a starter. Would the Yankees be able to get Gausman (4.11 ERA and 4.37 FIP) or Bundy (4.08 ERA and 4.39 FIP) to perform better? Maybe! The O’s aren’t exactly known for pitcher development. The pitching aspect of this rumor interests me.

6. So what’ll it cost? Let the rosterbating begin. Elite position players are rarely traded as rentals. J.D. Martinez was traded last year, but he missed much of the first half with an injury and is a defensive liability. Machado is a healthy two-way impact player, especially at third base. You know what the most recent comparable trade may be? Carlos Beltran to the Astros. Beltran was a 27-year-old two-way star when he was traded in 2004, and he fetched:

John Buck (preseason No. 67 overall prospect in 2003)
Mark Teahan (preseason No. 85 overall prospect in 2005)
Mike Wood (non-top-100 Triple-A pitching prospect)

That was a 14 years ago. Times have changed. Prospects and young players are valued much more highly these days — more highly than superstars, it seems — and it seems unlikely to me Machado can be had for two back half of a top 100 list prospects and a Triple-A depth arm. Then again, who knows. The Yankees traded Starlin Castro and two low level prospects for the reigning NL MVP a few months ago. Weird stuff happens.

Adding Britton and/or Gausman and/or Bundy to Machado and making this a true blockbuster would further complicate things. Could the Yankees truly get it done while making Andujar unavailable? What about Justus Sheffield? Can they find a way to keep him too? That’d be cool. I am confident the Orioles will trade Machado and Britton before the deadline. Whether they make a good baseball trade is another matter.

* * *

For the record, I am 100% on board with a Machado trade. I don’t love post-Achilles injury Britton and need to look deeper at Gausman and Bundy before forming an opinion about them, but Machado? Bring him to me. He’s an elite talent and a true difference-maker. If the Yankees can keep Andujar and Sheffield (and Gleyber Torres) out of the trade package, I’m not sure there’s a combination of three prospects I’d say no to to get Machado for the stretch run.

We’ll see where this goes. I’m skeptical the Orioles will trade their franchise player to the hated Yankees, especially when other motivated contenders like the Dodgers and Cubs and Brewers are said to be in the mix as well. The Yankees have the prospect depth to match any trade offer, but there’s enough interest that the O’s could deal Machado for a quality package without sending him to a division rival. The Yankees need starting pitching, first and foremost. Machado sure would be rad too.

Scouting the Trade Market: Hard-throwing strike-throwers who fit Yankees’ mold

November 24, 2015 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Salazar, Carrasco, and Anderson could all be trade targets. (Presswire)

According to pretty much every report we’ve seen this offseason, the Yankees are looking for pitching in any trade. They’re said to at least be listening to offers for Brett Gardner and Andrew Miller, if not shopping them. Payroll isn’t going up next season and the Yankees didn’t have much money come off the books, so trades are the only real avenue for significant improvement.

The current rotation is again full of question marks — Masahiro Tanaka just had elbow surgery, Nathan Eovaldi had an elbow injury at the end of the year, CC Sabathia’s knee is an ongoing issue, etc. — and the future rotation is pretty wide open. Tanaka (opt-out), Eovaldi, Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova can all become free agents within the next two years, leaving Luis Severino and Adam Warren for the 2018 rotation.

Obviously that is a long way away — the 2013 Yankees got 103 starts from Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, and David Phelps, for example, so things change in a hurry — but that doesn’t mean the Yankees are wrong to worry about it now. If they’re going to deal Gardner and/or Miller, getting young controllable pitching in return makes all the sense in the world.

Over the last few years the Yankees have made it clear they have a “type,” when it comes to pitching. They love hard-throwers with very low walk rates, and the taller they are, the better. They didn’t just pick Pineda and Eovaldi out of a hat, you know. Both came to New York with huge fastballs and a low walk rate. Eovaldi (6-foot-2) isn’t as big as Pineda (6-foot-7), but he also throws 100, so yeah.

So, using all of this information, we can dig up some potential pitching trade targets for the Yankees. This isn’t to say the Yankees are (or should) pursuing these guys — or that they’re even available — but they fit what has been established as their preferred type of pitcher. Obviously some of these guys are more attainable than others, though it is interesting several are on teams who appear to match up with the Yankees for a potential trade. To the alphabetically ordered list.

RHP Cody Anderson, Indians
2015 Average Fastball Velocity: 92.1 mph (96.9 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 6.6%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Six (three pre-arbitration and three arbitration years)

The Indians have a ton of starting pitchers, so much so that they’ve discussed trading one to address their outfield needs. They’ve spoken to the Yankees about an outfielder-for-starter trade, for example. Anderson, 24, had a 3.05 ERA (4.27 FIP) in 15 starts and 91.1 innings around an oblique injury this past season. He has above-average velocity and a history of limiting walks, though his strikeout rate (12.1%) was way below-average this year. For what it’s worth, his minor league strikeout rate (18.5%) wasn’t great either.

RHP Carlos Carrasco, Indians
2015 Average Velocity: 94.5 mph (98.8 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 5.9%
Height: 6-foot-3
Years of Control: Three (owed $19M through 2018 plus club options for 2019 and 2020)

We’ve discussed Carrasco here before, albeit briefly. Assuming Corey Kluber is off limits, the 28-year-old Carrasco is the best available Indians starter. He moved from the bullpen back into the rotation late last season, and this year he pitched to 3.63 ERA (2.84 FIP) with an elite strikeout (29.6%) rate and an excellent ground ball (51.2%) rate in 30 starts and 183.2 innings. The high-ish ERA has more to do with Cleveland’s poor team defense than anything Carrasco did. Carrasco is not super young (he turns 29 in March) but he’s signed to a dirt cheap contract and has pitched at an ace level in 40 starts since returning to the rotation. If he is actually available, it’ll cost a ton to get him.

LHP Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks
2015 Average Velocity: 92.1 mph (96.2 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 4.8%
Height: 6-foot-2
Years of Control: Three (all arbitration years)

Tommy John surgery limited Corbin, a native New Yorker, to 16 starts and 85.1 innings in 2015. His performance (3.60 ERA and 3.35 FIP) was on par with his breakout 2013 season (3.41 ERA and 3.43 FIP) before the elbow caused him to miss 2014. His strikeout (21.9%) and grounder (46.9%) rates were right in line with 2013 as well (20.7% and 46.7%). Recent Tommy John surgery is always a red flag, though it’s good to see the results and PitchFX data show Corbin was basically the same pitcher in 2015 as he was before elbow reconstruction. The D’Backs have some rotation depth and they have checked in with the Yankees about Miller, so maybe there is a Corbin for Miller plus stuff deal to be made. Remember though, Corbin is Arizona’s ace, so they may consider him untouchable, especially with three years of control remaining.

RHP Jose Fernandez, Marlins
2015 Average Velocity: 95.9 mph (99.5 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 5.3%
Height: 6-foot-2
Years of Control: Three (all arbitration years)

Depending who you want to believe, either the Marlins are open to moving the 23-year-old Fernandez because he’s a headache, or he’s completely untouchable. Reports supporting both scenarios have popped up in recent days. Either way, Fernandez is as good as it gets, pitching to a 2.92 ERA (2.24 FIP) in eleven starts and 64.1 innings this year after returning from Tommy John surgery. I wrote more about Fernandez in last week’s mailbag. The question isn’t so much is Fernandez available, but do the Yankees even have what it takes to outbid other clubs if he is? I’m leaning towards no on that one.

RHP Kevin Gausman, Orioles
2015 Average Velocity: 95.9 mph (100.3 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 6.2%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Five (one pre-arbitration and four arbitration years as a Super Two)

Various reports indicate Gausman was a popular target at the trade deadline — the Tigers wanted him for Yoenis Cespedes, the Padres wanted him for Justin Upton, and the Rockies wanted him for Carlos Gonzalez. Baltimore said no each time, obviously. The O’s have a terrible track record of developing pitchers, and the 24-year-old Gausman followed his strong 2014 season (3.57 ERA and 3.41 FIP) with an okay at best 2015 (4.25 ERA and 4.10 FIP) while being moved back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. Gausman seems like an ideal change of scenery guy, but I have a really hard time seeing him as a realistic target. Orioles owner Peter Angelos hates the Yankees and wouldn’t risk trading Gausman only to watch him develop into a stud in pinstripes. So yeah, Gausman fits the mold as a hard-throwing strike-thrower, but this ain’t happening.

RHP Jonathan Gray, Rockies
2015 Average Velocity: 94.3 mph (98.2 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 7.6%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Six (three pre-arbitration plus three arbitration years)

Gray, 24, came into the season as the No. 24 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, then came up late in the season and got Coors Fielded (5.53 ERA and 3.63 FIP in 40.2 innings). He did miss bats (21.6%) but didn’t get a ton of grounders (43.2%) in his limited action. The Yankees do have some history with Gray, selecting him in the tenth round of the 2011 draft, but he turned down a ton of money to go to college.

The Rockies haven’t been able to develop pitching in forever, and while trading someone like Gray seems silly, GM Jeff Bridich recently told Patrick Saunders he is “open to anything, I mean it” to improve the team, including trading young pitching. Gardner and Miller don’t appear to be matches for the Rockies — why would they want a 32-year-old outfielder or an expensive closer? — but maybe other pieces like Gary Sanchez and Jorge Mateo could entice Colorado.

LHP Andrew Heaney, Angels
2015 Average Velocity: 91.5 mph (94.9 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 6.4%
Height: 6-foot-2
Years of Control: Six (two pre-arbitration plus four arbitration years as a Super Two)

Heaney, 24, was traded twice last offseason — first for Dee Gordon then for Howie Kendrick a few hours later — and now the Angels have a new GM, and new GMs tend to trade away incumbent players because they aren’t attached to them. That said, Heaney had a really good year (3.49 ERA and 3.73 FIP in 105.2 innings) and the Halos just traded their top two pitching prospects for Andrelton Simmons, so dealing another young starter seems unlikely. Then again, the Halos do desperately need a left fielder and leadoff hitter, and perhaps GM Billy Eppler is particularly fond of Gardner after all his years with the Yankees. My guess is he values the young lefty more, but you never know.

RHP Wily Peralta, Brewers
2015 Average Velocity: 94.1 mph (97.6 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 7.7%
Height: 6-foot-1
Years of Control: Three (all arbitration years)

The Brewers are in full blown tear it down and rebuild mode, and the 26-year-old Peralta is one of the few players left on the roster with actual trade value. Unfortunately, he battled shoulder tendinitis this summer and had a miserable year, pitching to a 4.72 ERA (4.84 FIP) in 20 starts and 108.2 innings. Also, Peralta’s strikeout rate fell from 18.4% in 2014 to a well-below-average 12.6% in 2015, and gosh, that’s scary. He has gradually lowered his walk rate over the years and he’s always gotten grounders (51.6% in 2015), though the combination of a shoulder problem and a huge strikeout drop is a major red flag. Besides, the Brewers have no use for Gardner or Miller, so we’re talking a prospect package.

RHP Danny Salazar, Indians
2015 Average Velocity: 94.9 mph (98.7 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 7.0%
Height: 6-foot-0
Years of Control: Five (two pre-arbitration and three arbitration years)

Yet another Indians starter. They’ve got a lot of them. Salazar, 25, presumably lies somewhere between Carrasco and Anderson in trade value, but closer to Carrasco. He’s always had a history of limiting walks and this summer he had a great strikeout rate (25.8%) and an average-ish grounder rate (43.9%) in 185 innings, his first full season as a big leaguer (3.45 ERA and 3.62 FIP). Cleveland seems open to trading a starter for the right return, though it’s unclear if the Yankees can offer that return, regardless of whether it includes Gardner.

RHP Taijuan Walker, Mariners
2015 Average Velocity: 94.1 mph (98.2 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 5.7%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Five (two pre-arbitration and three arbitration years)

The Yankees and Mariners discussed Gardner a few weeks ago, and last week George King reported the Yankees asked for Walker, which apparently ended talks. (Why do we always hear talks ended because the first ask was high? Aren’t you supposed to, you know, negotiate?) The 23-year-old Walker had an okay year this season (4.56 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 169.2 innings) but was extremely homer prone (1.33 HR/9) despite playing his home games in Safeco Field. But still, he’s a former top prospect with quality stuff, so the appeal is obvious. The Mariners refused to trade Walker for David Price a few years ago, though that was under ex-GM Jack Zduriencik. New GM Jerry Dipoto may be more open to moving Walker. Also, even though Seattle just acquired Leonys Martin, they still have a need for outfielders, so Gardner still makes some sense, though obviously Gardner-for-Walker ain’t happening. It would have to be Gardner plus stuff for the young righty.

* * *

By no means is this list intended to be comprehensive. Plenty of starters either throw hard or limit walks, but surprisingly few do both, and even fewer might actually be available this offseason. (Something tells me others like Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard are staying put, you guys.) Guys like Robbie Ray and Jimmy Nelson throw hard but walk too many hitters. Others like Josh Tomlin and Chase Anderson limit walks but work with average velocity or less.

Through their various pickups the last few years the Yankees have made it clear they like hard-throwers with low walk rates. Even small additions like Chris Martin fit the bill. The Yankees are said to be looking for starters this offseason for obvious reasons, and unless they unexpectedly shift gears, they figure to again target high-velocity, low-walk pitchers. It’s an exclusive club and those guys tend to cost quite a bit to acquire, but they aren’t off-limits either.