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River Ave. Blues » Mark Buehrle

Blue Jays & Marlins swing ten-ish player blockbuster

November 13, 2012 by Mike 221 Comments

The Blue Jays and Marlins are on the verge of completing a monster ten-ish player blockbuster that will send Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto for Henderson Alvarez, Yunel Escobar, and various prospects. The deal is not official yet and reports are still trickling in about who those various prospects actually are, so I suggest checking out MLBTR every so often until this thing is finalized.

Toronto lost 89 games and a ton of players to injury last year, but this trade obviously improves their outlook for next season. We have all winter to analyze this deal and how it relates to the Yankees, but for now here’s a thread to discuss this monstrosity.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Emilio Bonifacio, Henderson Alvarez, John Buck, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays

Cashman: Yankees only had “early conversations” with Buehrle

December 7, 2011 by Mike 18 Comments

The Miami Marlins continued ruining baseball today by signing free agent lefty Mark Buehrle to a four-year contract worth $58M. Brian Cashman told reporters (including Mark Feinsand and Joel Sherman) that he had nothing more than “early conversations” with Buehrle’s camp, and they didn’t want to go more than two years on the veteran southpaw. I have to say I can’t blame them, the guy’s already teetering on the edge stuff-wise and has allowed an average of 4.22 runs per nine innings over the last three years in a division with some wimpy offenses. Nothing about that screams four years.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: 2011 Winter Meetings, Mark Buehrle

Today In Pitching Rumors: Buehrle & Sanchez

November 8, 2011 by Mike 41 Comments

Via Ken Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand, the Yankees are among a number of teams interested in free agent southpaw Mark Buehrle. Brian Cashman has at least put a call into Buehrle’s agent, just like he as with Edwin Jackson, C.J. Wilson, and Roy Oswalt, but the GM confirmed that no offers have been made to anyone yet. The lefty’s value in his durability, we’re talking eleven straight years of 30+ starts and 200+ innings. The Yankees can use some reliability, but these soft-tossing, no strikeout guys scare the crap out of me.

In other news, Jon Heyman says the Yankees were disappointed to see Jonathan Sanchez get trading to the Royals simply because they felt they had more to offer in a trade. I’m not sure why the Yankees would be interested in Sanchez … I mean yeah he strikes out a ton of guys, but he also walks more batters than anyone else, gives up a ton of fly balls, and is in the middle of a three-year velocity decline. All that for the low, low price of about $6M next season. Consider this a bullet dodged.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Jonathan Sanchez, Mark Buehrle

Mailbag: Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers (& Buehrle)

October 28, 2011 by Mike 31 Comments

I promised a Jesus Montero-free mailbag last week, so here it is. Instead you get a whole bunch of Dodgers-related questions, which seems like nothing more than a coincidence. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send in your questions throughout the week.

(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Evan asks: With the ongoing drama regarding the Dodgers and Frank McCourt, it’s looking more and more likely that Matt Kemp will hit the open market following the 2012 season. What type of contract do you think he will receive? Could it be the largest in baseball?

Kemp’s season was basically Curtis Granderson’s season plus another 10-15% on top of it. He hit .324/.399/.586 with 39 homers and 40 steals, which works out to a .419 wOBA. All that happened in one of the game’s best pitchers’ parks and in a lineup with zero protection (if you believe in protection). He was a monster this year, I think the obvious NL MVP and arguably the best player in all of baseball.

Reportedly, Kemp will not talk about a contract extension once the 2012 season starts. He can be a free agent after next season (MLBTR projects his 2012 salary at $16.3M), and his agent says he isn’t giving a hometown discount. If Kemp has another year like this one, which is very possible because he is that talented and just turned 27 in September, I think we’re talking Joe Mauer money on the open market (eight years, $184M). He’s not a Scott Boras client, which will cost him some money and likely prevent him from getting an Alex Rodriguez contract, but he’s so young and so productive that it wouldn’t surprise me if he got it anyway. Who will give it to him though? The Yankees with at least three $100M+ deals already on the books? The Red Sox? The Tigers? Maybe the Rangers since Josh Hamilton will be off the books? Someone’s going to pay Kemp huge money and deservedly so.

Reggie asks: What’s the chances that Hiroki Kuroda could be swayed from returning to the Dodgers or Japan with a lucrative two-year offer? Kuroda could simply be trying to gain some leverage in talks with east coast teams. How awesome would it be to have a rotation featuring both Kuroda and Yu Darvish!  The stadium would turn into lil Tokyo two days a week.

I think the economic impact of high-profile Japanese players is easy to overstate (we’ve seen studies about how revenue Hideki Matsui actually generated), but it’s definitely real. That’s neither here nor there though.

We’re Kuroda fans here at RAB, dating back to last offseason when we considered him the best Plan B behind Cliff Lee. The Yankees like him as well, judging by the fact that they wanted him in August 2010 and before the 2011 trade deadline. The 36-year-old right-hander (37 in February) still makes a ton of sense for New York on a short-term contract, but he likes Los Angeles so much that he took a below market contract to stay their last year and refused to waive his no-trade clause to come east at the deadline. Two years might be pushing it at Kuroda’s age, but I would much prefer that to five years for C.J. Wilson or four years for Edwin Jackson.

Mark asks: How would you feel about a deal for Chad Billingsley that centered around Eduardo Nunez and someone like Adam Warren or D.J. Mitchell? Given his mileage and down year, would that be too much?

No, I don’t think that would be too much at all. I like Adam Warren, but I’d drive him and Nunez to the airport myself if it meant getting a guy like Billingsley. He’s young (27), signed affordably through 2014 ($32M plus a $14M option for 2015), durable (at least 31 starts and 188 IP in each of the last four years), and really effective (3.52 FIP last four years). Even if that shoots up to a 4.00 FIP in the AL East, he’s still a really good pitcher.

My biggest concern is that Billingsley’s strikeout and swing-and-miss rates have declined every year since 2008 while his walk rate has hovered closer to 4.0 BB/9 than 3.0 BB/9. Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness dubbed him “a conundrum, consistently inconsistent” just yesterday. On the bright side, he is a ground ball guy (47.3% last four years) and has only been on the DL once (16 days for a groin strain in 2010). Definite pluses.

I look at Billingsley almost like another Ubaldo Jimenez, and I think it would take a similar kind of package to get him. Ned Colletti isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, especially when it comes to making trades (as he’s shown with Casey Blake, Octavio Dotel, etc.), so perhaps that makes it easier to acquire the right-hander. I’d include Dellin Betances in a package for Billingsley no questions asked, but not Manny Banuelos and certainly not Montero. Betances plus two lesser pieces (Mitchell? Brandon Laird?) would be ideal, but probably not realistic.

Nick asks: Could the Yankees trade for Scott Elbert?

Sure they could. I have no idea how open the Dodgers would be to moving the lefty, who emerged as a dominant late-inning reliever in 2011 after going back and forth to Triple-A for a few years. The 26-year-old held same-side hitters to a .191/.267/.250 batting line this year (75 plate appearances), though the 18 strikeouts don’t really blow you away. Elbert battled some serious arm problems in the minors, which is why he can’t start anymore, but he’s still a power arm with a low-90’s fastball and high-80’s slider capable of doing the lefty specialist thing. He’d be a fine trade target, but I hope the Yankees don’t overpay for a LOOGY.

(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Jon asks: What are your thoughts on Mark Buehrle?

Brad asks: What are the details of Mark Buehrle’s contract situation? If memory serves, he is a free agent this year. He’s a durable lefty with a proven track record. Would he be a viable signing for the Yankees?

Yep, he is a free agent this winter, and just to get this out of the way, I can only see Buehrle pitching in two places next season: with the White Sox, or for his hometown Cardinals. He’d made it known in the past that he would only waive his no-trade clause to pitch in St. Louis, and he’s also discussed retirement if the right deal doesn’t come along.

Anyway, I’m not much of a Buehrle fan. He’s the definition of a soft-tosser, keeping hitters off balance with a mid-80’s fastball (both two- and four-seamers), a low-80’s cutter, a high-70’s changeup, and a low-80’s curveball. The 32-year-old southpaw (33 in March) doesn’t strike anyone out (three straight sub-4.80 K/9 seasons) and doesn’t get a ton of ground balls (sub-45.7% last three years), but he is stingy with ball four (no worse than a 2.14 BB/9 since 2003).

Buehrle’s a classic wily ol’ veteran that just knows how to pitch and keep his team in games and [insert cliche here]. His value is in his innings (just finished his 11th straight year of 200+ IP) and veteran presents. Viable signing? Sure, but a) I don’t see it happening, and b) definitely not with the expectation of him being a number two starter. Buehrle’s had a great career, but you don’t want to be the one on the hook when the other shoe drops.

Dave asks: We all know about the weak free agent class for starting pitchers this year, but I’m interested in next year’s pitchers. Or more specifically, which of next year’s free agents (or the following year) might be made available at the trade deadline, a la Ubaldo. Cole Hamels probably won’t be made available, but maybe Clayton Kershaw? BTW, I still refer to this post for future free agent pitchers.

Next year’s free agent class is right here, and it’s loaded with pitchers. Hamels, John Danks, Matt Cain, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano … the list goes on and on. I think Cain is by far the most likely to sign an extension, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamels does as well. Danks and Liriano could definitely be on the block if the White Sox and Twins fall out of the race early, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers try to flip Greinke for something better than two draft picks if they struggle without Prince Fielder. I’d be surprised if Tim Lincecum or Josh Johnson, two guys that will become free agents after 2013, hit the trade market this summer. Heck, in Lincecum’s case, I’d be surprised if he ever hits the trade market. He’s the definition of a franchise pitcher.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buehrle, Matt Kemp, Scott Elbert

Mailbag: Mark Buehrle

December 13, 2010 by Mike 77 Comments

(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Any chance the Yankees show an interest in Mark Buehrle? He’s owed $14 million in the last year of his contract and it sounds like the Sox will listen to offers. What do you think it would take to get him? Given his contract situation, he might be cheaper than some of the other fallback plans.

The ChiSox are willing to listen to offers for their nominal ace according to Nick Cafardo, and they’re sure to get a ton of bites. Buehlre’s reputation as a top flight pitcher is prevalent throughout the game even though his performance doesn’t exactly back it up, but that’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher. He’s obviously quite good. I guess a perfect game, a no hitter, and a World Series championship can cloud people’s perception. Crazy, I know.

Buehrle’s value lies primarily in his supreme durability. He’s made no fewer than 30 starts or thrown fewer than 201 innings in each of the last ten seasons, averaging 33 and 222 during that time, respectively. Simply put, this is a guy a team can count on to take the ball deep into the game every fifth day, and there’s a ton of value in that (no fewer than 3.4 fWAR in nine of the last ten years).

Now, the underlying performance is a bit of an issue. Buehrle doesn’t strike anyone out, which is always a concern. His strikeout rate dipped to just 4.24 batters per nine innings in 2010, down from 4.43 in 2009, 5.76 in 2008, and just north of 6.00 at his peak. Unsurprisingly, his swing-and-miss rate has been dangerously low at 6.7% over the last five years, well below the ~8.6% league average. For comparison’s sake, Sergio Mitre posted an identical 6.7% whiff rate in 2010. Buehrle makes up for the lack of strikeouts by getting a good amount of ground balls but certainly not a ton; his 46.8% grounder rate over the last three seasons is identical to CC Sabathia’s and the 24th best in baseball.

If you’re not going to strike anyone out or get an excessive amount of ground balls, you can’t walk yourself into trouble, and Buehrle excels at avoiding free passes. He’s unintentionally walked just 1.9 batters per nine innings pitched in his career, a rate that held true last year, the last three years, and the last five years. Consistency, they name is Buehrle. Concerned about all those miles on his arm catching up to him a la Javy Vazquez? Don’t be, Buehrle’s sat at 86.4 mph with his fastball over the last four seasons. Yeah, the velocity was never there in the first place. He succeeds by throwing three different fastballs (two-seamer, four-seamer, cutter) and a changeup with great regularity (no fewer than 15.4% of the time each last season).

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

With the lack a knock-out breaking ball and the inability to get strike three, it’s inevitable that any pitcher will get hit around a bit, and Buehrle is no exception. His 708 hits allowed over the last three seasons (.304 BABIP) are the most in baseball, and the 66 homers are the 22nd most during the same time frame. Left-handers have gotten him for a .345 wOBA and righties a .325 wOBA since 2008, both worse than league average. His 4.10 FIP since ’08 is just a touch better than Ted Lilly’s and A.J. Burnett’s, though his 4.38 xFIP lags a bit behind those two. Buehrle is what he is, a true innings eater that is good for solid but unspectacular performances. His reputation as an ace is a bit puzzling, but he’s certainly a fine pitcher.

Should the Yankees be interested if they fail to sign Cliff Lee? Sure, they absolutely need two starters this offseason and a pitcher of Buehrle’s caliber is a big upgrade over the Ivan Novas of the world. He’ll pull down a cool $14M in 2011 before hitting the free agent market, so a trade would have to be viewed as a rental. The Yanks gave up a fringe big leaguer, a top pitching prospect, and a decent relief prospect for Vazquez last year, who was cheaper and coming off a better season than Buehrle is this winter. I don’t see why they should give up any more this time around.

We do run into a similar problem with Buehrle as we did with Gavin Floyd, in that it doesn’t appear the two teams line up well for a trade. Chicago’s in the hunt for a third baseman and relief help, and the Yanks can’t really spare either. Brandon Laird and Joba Chamberlain shouldn’t be enough for Buehrle, nor would I want the Yanks to surrender Joba for a one year rental. Whether or not a trade can be worked out is not my responsibility, but if the price is right, it certainly makes sense for the Yankees to go after the lefty if they can’t land Lee. Hell, even if Lee does sign with the Yanks, Buehrle would be a fine replacement for Andy Pettitte should he call it a career.

Update: Turns out that Buehrle’s contract has some trade-related perks. If traded, his 2011 salary is increased to $15M, and what amounts to a $15M option for 2012 automatically vests. That’s a problem because Buehrle isn’t young and doesn’t have much margin for error to begin with, so it really hurts his value and stock as a trade target.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Mark Buehrle

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