River Avenue Blues

7/26 to 7/29 Series Preview: Kansas City Royals

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(Jon Durr/Getty)

If the Yankees are going to start making moves in the division, they’re going to have to start beating up on bad teams. They’re 8-8 against the Orioles, Royals, and Rangers – the three worst teams in the American League – heading into this series, which isn’t going to cut it. But with ten of their next seventeen games coming against those teams, they have an opportunity to make up for lost ground.

The Royals are up first.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Kansas City for a three-game set back in May, taking two of three. They outscored the Royals 20-9 in doing so, with contributions from most everyone that played in the series. Some notes:

  • Aaron Hicks hit an inside-the-park home run in the second game – his second of the season. It was the product of shaky defense by the Royals and hustle by Hicks, and it wasn’t even close. Check it out:

  • Sonny Gray had one of the best starts of his Yankees career in the third game, tossing 8 innings and allowing just four hits, one run, and one walk, while striking out 5. He threw first pitch strikes to 22 of 29 batters faced, and kept the ball on the ground, posting a 57.1% groundball rate.
  • The Yankees hit nine home runs in the series – Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez (twice), Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler Austin (twice), Miguel Andujar, and Austin Romine all went deep. And, this, in one of the least homer-friendly parks in baseball.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

The Royals have three starting pitchers (Jesse Hahn, Ian Kennedy, and Eric Skoglund), a reliever (Blaine Boyer), a utility infielder (Cheslor Cuthbert), and their best hitter (Jorge Soler) on the disabled list. None are expected back in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Kansas City is 31-70 with a -192 run differential; for those of you keeping score at home, that’s the second-worst record in baseball (only Baltimore is worse) and the worst run differential by a comfortable margin. They’ve scored the fewest runs in baseball and allowed the most, and that’s not a great recipe for success. They’re bad in just about every way that a team can be bad.

The Lineup We Might See

Trades, promotions, demotions, and poor performances have forced Ned Yost to tinker with his lineup quite a bit this year. He seems to have settled on something along these lines of late, though:

  1. Whit Merrifield, 2B – .300/.369/.426, 5 HR, 19 SB
  2. Rosell Herrera, RF – .265/.298/.357, 0 HR, 1 SB
  3. Mike Moustakas, 3B – .249/.310/.468, 20 HR, 3 SB
  4. Salvador Perez, C – .227/.263/.412, 15 HR, 1 SB
  5. Lucas Duda, 1B – .247/.315/.405, 8 HR, 0 SB
  6. Jorge Bonifacio, DH – .236/.329/.403, 1 HR, 0 SB
  7. Alex Gordon, LF – .236/.312/.339, 6 HR, 4 SB
  8. Brian Goodwin, CF – .229/.337/.371, 3 HR, 3 SB
  9. Alcides Escobar, SS – .203/.253/.275, 3 HR, 5 SB

Adalberto Mondesi might get a start or two at either second or short, and Hunter Dozier should see time at first and/or third (most likely starting against Sabathia in place of Duda or Moustakas).

Junis. (Ed Zurga/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Jakob Junis

Junis started against the Yankees back on May 18, and was effective in the Royals victory. He tossed 5.1 IP, allowing 7 hits (all singles), 2 runs, and a walk, and struck out 3. Junis looked quite good overall through the beginning of June, posting a 3.62 ERA in his first 12 starts, with good strikeout (8.6 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) rates. The wheels have fell off a bit since then, however, and he has an 8.42 ERA (8.00 FIP) in his last six starts.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/21) – 4.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Brad Keller

Keller was a Rule 5 pick by the Royals over the off-season, after spending the first five seasons of his professional career in Arizona. He made the jump from Double-A to the majors this year, pitching out of the bullpen until late May. He transitioned to the rotation due to injuries to several starters, and has made nine starts so far. He has a 3.75 ERA and 3.57 FIP in those starts, which is good, as is his 54.8% groundball rate; his strikeout (5.8 K/9) and walk (4.1 BB/9) rates leave a great deal to be desired, though.

Keller – who will be celebrating his 23rd birthday on Friday – throws four pitches: a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a high-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/22) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 K

Saturday (1:00 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Heath Fillmyer

The 24-year-old Fillmyer has served as the team’s long-reliever/swingman since making his big-league debut a month ago, and sports a shiny 2.82 ERA (153 ERA+) in 22.1 IP. And, like Keller, he has done so with lots of grounders (59.7%), and subpar strikeout (5.2 per 9) and walk (4.0 per nine) rates.

Fillmyer is primarily a three-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider. He’ll also mix-in a sinker and a curve, but we’re talking one or two per game.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/23) – 6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST: RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Burch Smith

Smith, much like Keller, opened the season in the bullpen, and transitioned to the rotation; he was also a Rule 5 pick, out of the Rays organization. He has only made three starts, though, and was barely stretched out for the first two. It’s been a long journey to the majors for Smith, who missed all of 2015 and 2016 as a result of Tommy John surgery.

Smith is a three-pitch pitcher, featuring a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a low-80s change-up, and a big-time curveball in the high-70s. His curve is a true swing-and-miss offering.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/24) – 6.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K

The Bullpen

A few Royals bullpen rankings presented with limited commentary:

  • 25th in BB/9
  • 26th in WPA
  • 30th in ERA
  • 30th in FIP
  • 30th in K/9

And that’s with the stellar numbers of the since-traded Kelvin Herrera (1.05 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 BB/9) factored in. This is the worst bullpen in the majors, and it’s not particularly close.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Kansas City is the unfortunately confluence of bad and boring, with little in the way of standout players on either side of the ball. Merrifield is an exciting player, and Smith’s curveball is a thing of beauty. Otherwise, the story of this series will be dependent upon whether the Yankees can beat up on a bad team. That, and the strong likelihood that Zach Britton will make his Yankees debut.

Yankees acquire J.A. Happ for Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney

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(Presswire)

The Yankees have been trying to add a starter since the offseason and they finally landed one. This afternoon the Yankees announced they have acquired veteran southpaw J.A Happ from the Blue Jays for infielder Brandon Drury and outfield prospect Billy McKinney. The trade has been announced and is official. Done deal.

For all intents and purposes, Happ will step into the rotation to replace Jordan Montgomery, who was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Domingo German and Luis Cessa had been starting in Montgomery’s place the last few weeks, and while there were some promising moments, it largely did not go well. The Yankees needed another starter and they got a pretty good facsimile of Montgomery in Happ.

Here is our Scouting The Market post on Happ. He currently owns a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) with strikeout (27.4%) and ground ball (44.6%) rates that will play in Yankee Stadium. Happ has struggled recently — he’s allowed 26 runs in his last five starts and 31.1 innings — so the Yankees are clearly banking on his track record. He had a 3.33 ERA (3.87 FIP) with Toronto from 2016-17 and a 3.56 ERA (3.56 FIP) in 2018 as recently as June 24th.

In Drury and McKinney, the Yankees traded two players with no obvious long-term fit. Drury came over from the Diamondbacks in February, the Yankees talked him up all Spring Training, he was the Opening Day third baseman, then he landed on the disabled list with migraines and blurry vision, and Miguel Andujar took over third base. Andujar’s emergence has made Drury expendable.

During his limited big league time this season Drury hit .176/.263/.275 (50 wRC+) with one home run in 18 games while playing first, second, and third bases. He also hit .294/.403/.447 (144 wRC+) with five home runs in 55 games with Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees had Drury on their big league roster as a utility guy at various points the last few weeks, but he didn’t play much.

Going forward, the Yankees had no place to play Drury barring an injury, and that means no way to rebuild his trade value. The disabled list stint and lack of MLB playing time hurt his value, no doubt. Clearly the Yankees like him. They wouldn’t have made the trade for him otherwise. But his three primary positions are third base (Andujar), second base (Gleyber Torres), and first base (Greg Bird), and the Yankees have young players there.

Drury. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

As for McKinney, he was no higher than seventh on the outfield depth chart when everyone is healthy and no higher than fifth on the current outfield depth chart with Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip, foot, back) and Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) on the disabled list. McKinney went from the A’s to the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija trade, the Cubs to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman trade, and now to the Blue Jays in the Happ trade.

McKinney, who made his big league debut with the Yankees in Toronto earlier this season, hit .230/.294/.502 (120 wRC+) with 13 home runs in 54 Triple-A after returning from a shoulder injury suffered when the crashed into the Rogers Centre wall in April. He’s one of those ‘tweener guys the Yankees didn’t have room for, much like Ben Gamel and Jake Cave, who were traded away recently. I had McKinney 22nd on my most recent top 30 prospects list.

I’d mentioned in recent days the trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros three years ago seemed like a decent benchmark for Happ, and it fits. Houston sent two mid-range prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) to the A’s for Kazmir. The Yankees sent two mid-range prospects (Taylor Widener and Nick Solak) to the D’Backs for Drury, then flipped Drury for Happ. Consider McKinney inflation.

Happ is an impending free agent on a three-year contract worth $36M. His full luxury tax hit is $12M but his actual 2018 salary is $13M. He will count roughly $4M against the luxury tax payroll, less Drury’s and McKinney’s luxury tax hits. The net hit is something like $3.7M. The Yankees have plenty of luxury tax payroll wiggle room anyway. There’s still some payroll space remaining for another trade even if the Yankees don’t shed salary.

With Happ and Zach Britton, the Yankees have upgraded both their rotation and bullpen — the bullpen didn’t really need upgrading, but hey, Zach Britton! — with five days to go before the non-waiver trade deadline. They might be done, though I suspect they’ll look for a catcher given Gary Sanchez’s injury and monitor the pitching market in case a high-end starter like Jacob deGrom becomes available.

Yankeemetrics: House of Horrors by the Bay (July 23-25)

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(AP)

Severino slumping, Gary the goat
The Yankees opened up their quick road trip in Tampa with what had become an all-too-familiar result recently — a frustrating loss with numerous wasted scoring chances and unfulfilled rallies.

Gary Sanchez, who reportedly re-injured his groin early in the game and later landed on the DL, bookended the game with two seemingly lazy and costly plays.

In the first inning he was charged with a passed ball that scored a run from second base and gave the Rays an early 1-0 lead. While Sanchez has a lot of defensive value based on his framing (top-10 per StatCorner’s metric and top-20 per Baseball Prospectus’ metric) and his strong arm (top-10 pop time and top-5 throw velocity, his struggles blocking pitches are no secret. He has 10 passed balls, tied for the most in MLB; according to Sports Info Solutions tracking, he has the third-lowest rate of successfully blocking pitches (88%).

In the ninth inning, with the bases loaded and two outs and trailing by a run, he scorched a game-ending groundout. Regardless of whether Sanchez was already injured or not hustling or both, according to the Statcast in-game tracking, his speed on that play was below his already-mediocre season averages

He is now 6-for-45 (.133) in “Late and Close” situations (plate appearances in the 7th inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck) this season, the fifth-worst batting average in the majors (min. 45 at-bats).

Sanchez, though, was hardly the only Yankee to blame for the loss. Aaron Hicks had his chance to play hero in the ninth inning too, but came up small prior to Sanchez’s at-bat. Although his grounder scored a run to make it 7-6, he failed to get the cash-money hit with the bases loaded, a recurring nightmare for Hicks. After Monday’s failure, he was 3-for-38 (.079) with the bases loaded in his career, tied with J.B. Shuck for the lowest batting average among active players (min. 30 at-bats).

Luis Severino also contributed to the Yankees early deficit, allowing a season-high seven runs and 11 hits — including two homers — before getting pulled in the sixth inning. It was the third straight game he coughed up multiple dingers, the longest streak of his career, and the third straight start he failed to get an out in the sixth. The only other Yankee in franchise history with three games in a row allowing at least two homers while pitching no more than five innings was Freddy Garcia in September 2011.

Severino appears to be in a little slump …

Luis Severino This Season
IP ERA HR K% Opp OPS
Last 3 Starts 15 7.80 6 20.3% 1.103
First 18 Starts 118.1 1.98 6 30.1% .533

Tanaka Time
The Yankees snapped their five-game losing streak against the Rays — which was tied for their longest ever in this rivalry — thanks to a dominant performance by Masahiro Tanaka and won 4-0 on Tuesday night. It was their eighth game allowing no runs this season, one more than they had in all of 2017.

(Getty)

Tanaka was dazzling on the mound, throwing a three-hit shutout with nine strikeouts and one walk. He retired the first 12 batters, and faced just two batters over the minimum thanks to a couple inning-ending double plays. The most encouraging stat might have been zero — as in the number of homers he gave up (and runs). Tanaka had surrendered at least one longball in eight straight starts and 13 of his first 15 games this season.

Instead, he was masterful in locating his nasty slider/splitter combo low in the zone and burying those pitches in the dirt.

A season-best 82.9 percent of his sliders and splitters were thrown in the lower third of the zone or below the knees, and overall he got a season-high 16 outs via grounders.

Tanaka’s brilliant performance deserves a sweet bullet-point Yankeemetric recap:

  • He joined Orlando Hernandez (June 22, 1999) as the only Yankees to throw a shutout at Tropicana Field.
  • Tanaka is the first Yankee since Mike Mussina on August 17, 2003 against the Orioles to allow three hits or fewer and strike out at least nine batters in a shutout.
  • This was Tanaka’s third career shutout; since his 2014 rookie season, all other Yankee pitchers have combined to throw two individual shutouts (Luis Severino this year and Brandon McCarthy in 2014).

And finally, he is the first Yankee pitcher with at least three shutouts in his first five MLB seasons since Ron Guidry tossed 16(!) across his first five big-league seasons from 1975-79.

(AP)

Dead wood society
The Yankees capped this series the same way they started it — a frustrating one-run loss filled with tons of RISP-fail and cold bats — at their newest House of Horrors. The ugly stats for the Yankees at Tropicana Field:

  • Yankees are 7-14 at Tropicana Field over the last three seasons, their worst record at any AL ballpark, and tied with Twins (3-6) and White Sox (2-4) for the worst record at the Trop by any AL team since 2016.
  • This season they are averaging 3.2 runs per game in six games at Tampa Bay and 5.0 runs per game in all other road games.
  • Yankees are 0-4 in one-run games at Tropicana Field this season, and 6-4 in one-run games at all other road ballparks.
  • Yankees have lost two series over the past two months — and both of them were at Tropicana Field (also June 22-24).

The Rays were also the first team to hold the Yankees without a homer in a three- or four-game series this season. In fact, it’s the first time in nearly two years the Yankees have gone three games in a row without a dinger, since September 22-24, 2016.

They have gone deep just once in five games since the break, their fewest homers in a five-game span since June 10-15, 2016 against the Tigers and Rockies. The Yankees entered the break with an MLB-best 161 homers; their one home run since the break is the fewest by any team.

Thoughts following the Zach Britton trade

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(Presswire)

Two days ago the Yankees made their (first?) big move prior to the trade deadline, adding Zach Britton in a deal with the Orioles. Pitching prospects Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, and Cody Carroll went the other way. Not gonna lie, I held off on putting together this thoughts post because I figured the O’s would drag their feet with the medical reviews. Instead, the trade was finalized rather quickly. Anyway, let’s get to some thoughts.

1. Did the Yankees need another reliever? No. Are the Yankees a better team with Britton? Yes. That’s the whole point, right? In a division race like this — the Yankees are four games back in the loss column with 62 games to play, including ten head-to-head with the Red Sox — any sort of upgrade is worth making. And Britton could be a significant upgrade too. I’ve always felt WAR underrates high-leverage relievers, potentially significantly depending on their usage. ZiPS and Steamer have him at +0.2 WAR and +0.3 WAR, respectively, the rest of the season. That’s his value in the analytical world. In the real world, Britton could add two or three wins to the ledger because he’ll be asked to get big outs in close games, outs that a lesser reliever might not get. Just because the Yankees have a more dire need for a starting pitcher (and a catcher in the wake of Gary Sanchez’s injury) doesn’t mean they should ignore other potential upgrades, which in this case meant making an already very good bullpen even better. The Yankees are a better team and they still have plenty of prospects to trade. A no-brainer move, in my opinion.

2. The Yankees have to make a move to get Britton on the 25-man roster today — they still have an open 40-man roster from the last time they cut David Hale, so that’s easy — and the straightforward move would be dumping Chasen Shreve. That’s who Britton is effectively replacing, right? That would be the easy move. I bet it doesn’t happen. My guess is the Yankees will send Luis Cessa down and roll with a nine-man bullpen for the foreseeable future. That buys them time to possibly trade Shreve (better than losing him for nothing, right?) and also allows them to keep him in case someone gets hurt over the weekend. Monday’s off-day gives the Yankees a lot of flexibility with their rotation. If they trade for a starter, Monday’s off-day allows them to slot him in whenever’s convenient. If they don’t, they can push Cessa’s rotation spot back long enough until Domingo German satisfies the ten-day rule. German makes one start and then Cessa takes over again. Not ideal, but a fallback option. My guess is the Yankees are getting a starter though, so they can stick with the nine-man bullpen until then. We’ll see what happens, but that’s my guess. Cessa goes to Triple-A for Britton later today.

3. So what are the best bullpen roles? Britton said he is willing to pitch in any role for the Yankees — “I think you’ve got to go into a new team and earn your role, especially with the guys they have over there,” he said to Brittany Ghiroli following the trade —  so that’s good. It’s not like he has a say in things, but buy-in is important. Aroldis Chapman is locked in as the closer, so that’s easy. In my perfect world Britton and Dellin Betances would share seventh and eighth inning duty, with Betances facing the tough righties and Britton facing the tough lefties as the lineup allows. That would be ideal. I was hoping Joe Girardi would use Betances and Andrew Miller that way in 2016, but it didn’t happen. Betances was the seventh inning guy and Miller was the eighth inning guy. I’d bet on Aaron Boone doing the same thing. One guy works the seventh, the other works the eighth, and that’s fine. I don’t love it, but assigned innings have crushed my soul, so I’m not going to argue anymore. Chapman as closer with Betances and Britton as the seventh and eighth inning guys (in either order) leaves David Robertson, Jonathan Holder, and Chad Green for fireman work, and Adam Warren and A.J. Cole for everything else. That’ll play. I’m tempted to say Boone should use Britton as a double play specialist given his ground ball rate — bring him into a jam and let him get that ground ball to escape the inning — but I’d so much rather have a strikeout pitcher on the mound trying to strand runners. The fewer balls in play, the better. Bullpen roles tend to develop organically. This will all sort itself out.

(Presswire)

4. Britton will help lighten the load on the other relievers — it’ll be that much easier for Boone to give someone like Betances or Robertson or Green that one extra day to rest, if necessary — and the cool thing is he’s coming with a relatively fresh arm. He missed all that time with the Achilles injury earlier this year, so he’s only thrown 15.2 innings this season (21 if you count his minor league rehab stint). This isn’t a guy who is 40-something appearances into his season, you know? July and August are when we start to see dead arm phases and things like that. Britton is, in theory, a long way from that. Everyone else — and by everyone else I mean pretty much everyone around the league, not just in the bullpen — really starts to feel it in August and September. Bats and arms are a little slower after the long season. Britton is going to be in something close to midseason form around that time, again, in theory. Maybe this doesn’t mean anything because he’s still shaking off the rust following the Achilles injury and long layoff. I like the idea that Britton didn’t have a big first half workload. He should be that much fresher late in the season.

5. I’ve mentioned a few times that I like adding Britton as Chapman insurance given his achy lefty knee, but he’s not just insurance against Chapman. Betances has a history of fading late in the season and Green isn’t missing as many bats this year as he did last year. Remember how good the bullpen looked on paper last season? Well, by time the postseason rolled around, it was Chapman in the ninth, Robertson as much as possible, Green every so often, and oh thank goodness Tommy Kahnle turned into 1996 postseason David Weathers. Betances was unusable and Warren didn’t have enough time to get going after his late season back injury. If anything like that happens again, Betances collapsing or someone getting hurt, the Yankees are better able to absorb the injury because they have another really good reliever. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and effective. That would be awesome. This is baseball though, and the odds are always against things going according to plan. The bullpen is now in better shape to overcome anything that goes wrong.

6. I totally expected the Yankees to net some international bonus money in the trade. The Orioles usually give it away because they ignore international free agency — the Yankees made two small trades with the O’s for bonus money last year — but nope. No bonus money. Supposedly the Orioles are going to revamp their front office and player development systems, and reinvest in international free agency, so I guess that’s why they held on to that bonus money. Then again, look at Baseball America’s international signing tracker, and there’s nothing for the Orioles. Not one player signed since the signing period opened July 2nd. How does a team operate like that? Well, whatever. I thought maybe the Yankees would get some international bonus money in the trade, but no luck. The O’s are saving it for something else.

7. Your opinion of the trade likely depends on your opinion of Tate. Carroll is a fairly generic hard-throwing Triple-A reliever with high strikeout and walk rates — I thought the Orioles would bring him right to the big leagues, but they sent him to Triple-A — and Rogers is more Vidal Nuno than Jordan Montgomery. A nice depth piece and that’s probably it. As for Tate, if you think he’s a starter, it’s a pretty good trade for the Orioles. If you think he’s a reliever, then it’s not so good. I’ve said this a few times in DotF throughout the year, but Tate’s strikeout (21.9%) and swing-and-miss (11.2%) rates are underwhelming for a guy with his stuff. Keep sending him out there as a starter, for sure, but he’s looking more and more reliever-ish as time passes. Potentially a good reliever! But a reliever. It seems really unlikely he’ll ever live up to the hype of being the fourth overall pick (and first pitcher taken) in his draft class. (Speaking of that, there can’t be many guys taken in the first five picks of the draft who were traded twice before making their MLB debut, can there?) If Tate is going to start long-term, he still has some development ahead of him, and the Orioles have been just awful at pitcher development the last two decades. Maybe he’ll be the guy that helps them turn the corner.

Scouting the Trade Market: J.A. Happ

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The Hot Stove is Happ-ening. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The hot stove is scorching. Though J.A. Happ wasn’t moved on Wednesday night, he’s likely to be traded at any minute. The Blue Jays lefty is in the midst of a fine season, though he’s struggled recently. How does he fit the Yankees? Let’s look!

Current performance

James Anthony Happ carries a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) over 114 innings and 20 starts into play Thursday, though he had a 3.62 ERA (3.64 FIP) heading into July. His early season performance, particularly his May and June results, earned him his first All-Star bid as the Blue Jay’s lone representative.

To start this month, the 35-year-old southpaw suffered three consecutive lackluster starts, allowing 18 runs (13 earned) while walking eight and striking out 15 over 12 innings. He gave up four homers as well. Yikes. In his first start after picking up a save in the All-Star Game, he returned to form with one run over five innings.

Why is he an attractive asset? He sports a career-high strikeout rate of 27.4 percent without having the corresponding rise in walk rate (7.4 percent). While he’s inducing fewer groundballs, he’s creating more pop outs and fewer line drives. The concern is that he’s allowing home runs at a hefty rate, surrendering 17 this season after giving up just 18 a year ago.

Happ has seen a rise in his swinging strike rate from 9.4 to a personal-best 10.5 percent despite throwing fewer pitches in the zone. Batters have swung and missed on pitches out of the zone more often and his overall contact percentage has improved from 80.1 to 77.7.

Like most lefties, Happ has always had a normal split, though he’s been even better against same-sided batters this season. Only two of his home runs were hit by left-handers. He’s been much better away from Rogers Centre (2.60 ERA on road vs. 5.22 ERA at home). Despite struggling at home, he’s enjoyed a late-career revival since his brief stint with the Pirates in 2015 and his subsequent return to Toronto.

Current stuff

Happ used to be a 4-5 pitch pitcher, but now he comfortably relies on just 3-4 pitches, depending on if you consider the sinker a separate pitch from his fastball. He has mostly phased out his curveball and now uses his low-90s four-seam fastball and sinker more than 70 percent of the time. For off-speed offerings, he sits in the mid-80s with his slider and changeup, combining to use them in 25 percent of his pitches.

He throws his four-seam fastball around 93 mph and is in the midst of his highest velocity month for his fastball in his career, according to Brooks Baseball. The sinker around 91 mph.

Happ’s fastball remains his best pitch, hence why he relies upon it. His struggles in July have been due to batters hitting his sinker more for average and his four-seamer for power.

When he’s at his best, he hides the ball well and can blow his low-90s fastball by hitters.

Injury History

Happ has been a workhorse in recent seasons, but he did miss a month and a half with an elbow injury last season. However, he hasn’t missed a start since May 30 of last season.

He’s over five years removed from foot surgery and a scary line drive that hit him in the head and knocked him out for much of the 2013 season.

Contract Status

The southpaw is a rental, so no more years or control or money beyond this season. He’s in the final year of a three-year, $36 million contract and has a little over $4 million remaining on his deal. The Yankees have around $8 million to play with before bumping into the luxury tax, so Happ fits their budget.

What Would it Take?

With the Blue Jays not in the midst of a full rebuild, they’ll likely want controllable players near the majors. Joel Sherman reported that the Jays’ brass likes Brandon Drury, who the Yankees have reportedly floated in trade offers.

If not Drury, I’d expect a package that splits the difference between the Red Sox’s haul for Nate Eovaldi (one Triple-A pitcher with six years of control) and the Zach Britton package (one Triple-A starter, a Triple-A reliever and a Double-A starter). The Yankees have pitching depth from which to deal.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

The Yankees are looking to stabilize a rotation that is currently tossing out Luis Cessa and Sonny Gray two out of every five days, so Happ would do just fine. His price may be a little high considering his contract status, but the Bombers can afford to splurge with a 40-man roster crunch looming in the offseason. Happ could also audition for a deal with the Yankees next season.

It doesn’t hurt that the Red Sox struggle with lefties and the Yankees have them on the schedule nine more times this year. Happ isn’t perfect in this regard, having gotten shelled by the Sox earlier this month. But at the very least, he could be a stable addition to replace the rotating cast of younger players at the back-end of the rotation.

DotF: Deivi Garcia dominates in Charleston’s win

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Two quick notes to pass along:

  • RHP Roansy Contreras and RHP Luis Gil have entered MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects now that RHP Dillon Tate and RHP Cody Carroll have been traded away. Exciting write-ups for both. “Contreras’ fastball velocity has increased from 89-93 mph when he turned pro to 93-97 mph this season,” and Gil is “regularly working at 95-98 mph with his fastball and topping out at 101.” Huh.
  • The Yankees have released OF Terrance Robertson, reports Matt Eddy. The Yankees gave him an overslot $170,000 bonus as their 12th round pick in 2015. Robertson hit .212/.331/.266 (87 wRC+) with no homers and 28 steals in 42 attempts in 130 career games, none above rookie ball.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Game One was suspended again due to rain. The game was suspended with two outs in the bottom of the third yesterday, resumed today, then suspended again after the top of the fifth. Here’s the box score. They’re going to complete this one — or try to, anyway — as part of a doubleheader tomorrow.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Game Two was rained out. The game was canceled and will not be made up.

Double-A Trenton Thunder (9-0 win over Hartford)

  • 2B Gosuke Katoh: 3-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 4 RBI, 1 SB — 8-for-20 (.400) in his last five games
  • 1B Brandon Wagner: 1-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K — solid Double-A debut
  • LF Trey Amburgey: 1-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K, 2 SB, 1 SB
  • SS Kyle Holder: 1-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI
  • LHP Ryan Bollinger: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 7/7 GB/FB — 54 of 87 pitches were strikes (62%)

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Wednesday Night Open Thread

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Sounds like the next trade deadline domino may fall soon. Mark Feinsand says the Blue Jays are inching closer to trading J.A. Happ. Where? For whom? Who knows. Everyone is still trying to figure it out. The Yankees have been connected to him a bunch the last few weeks — Luis Cessa was pretty good today, but I still think their need for a starter is painfully obvious — so this is a situation worth monitoring. Another trade could be brewing.

Anyway, here’s an open thread for the night. Lots of day games today so there’s a relatively light MLB schedule tonight. ESPN (Red Sox vs. Orioles), ESPN+ (Athletics vs. Rangers), and MLB Network (regional) will all have games. Talk about those games, the trade deadline activity, this afternoon’s loss, or anything else except religion or politics right here. Thanks in advance.