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The Perfectly Cromulent Backup Catcher [2018 Season Review]

October 31, 2018 by Steven Tydings

A backup catcher in New York has the popularity of a backup quarterback, particularly in the age of Gary Sanchez. Despite Austin Romine being one of the worst players in all of baseball in 2017, fans and columnists still pined for him to start games over Sanchez. All over a perceived ability to block balls in the dirt better, though Romine allowed a wild pitch in his one playoff start.

But 2018 was different in that Romine wasn’t a complete negative. For the first time in his career, he produced positive WAR and was near league average with his bat while making his most plate appearances. Perhaps it was a fluke, but for one season, the 29-year-old catcher was a perfectly fine backup. Nothing flashy, nothing awful.

Starting Strong

In April 2017, Romine batted .314/.351/.471 with two home runs and a 115 wRC+. It was easily the best month of his career and made some think he deserved more starts. Those people were wrong. He had a -39 wRC+ (Negative, not a typo) that May and was well below average the rest of the year with no more dingers.

A year later and Romine was OK in April. He drew four walks to buoy his batting line while also producing three hits, including a tying single, against the Orioles on April 8.

May was a different story. In eight starts, he topped April 2017 with a dynamic month at the plate. He hit in each game and had an 11-game hitting streak from April 30 to June 4. He hit home runs in three out of four games and it wasn’t all cheapies! His first homer of the year finished off a blowout win over the Royals and was to deep left-center in Kansas City.

Before Sanchez went on the disabled list on June 25, Romine was actually one of the Yankees’ better hitters. He was hitting .305/.370/.524 and had 10 extra-base hits to his name in just 92 plate appearances.

Filling In

For over two months, Romine became the Yankees’ primary catcher with Sanchez sidelined with hamstring issues. With Kyle Higashioka playing occasionally, Romine was tasked with the day-to-day work and stepped into a bigger role than he’s ever filled, dating back to his rookie season in 2013.

It’d be a lie to say he held his own. The 29-year-old backstop wasn’t nearly as good as he was earlier in the season and he went back to being a hole in the lineup more often than not. Teams ran on him with reckless abandon and were successful at a high rate. That being said, his July was his second-best month of the year, posting league-average marks and a .213 ISO before a weak August.

While Sanchez was out, Romine did give the Yankees a few memorable moments, the biggest being his Little League homer to beat the Indians just before the All Star break. It was a well-hit double to the gap. Then chaos ensued.

Romine homered three times in August, but he struck out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances while losing 47 points off his OPS.

Poor Ending to a Good Season

After Sanchez came back, Romine played in just seven games with just six starts. He didn’t play for 10 days at one point. He had just three hits over 22 at-bats and grounded into as many double plays as he scored runs. It was his worst month at the plate, but that has a lot to the infrequent playing time. Even while playing his MLB career as a backup, Romine still had to adjust from everyday starts to very little playing time in a short period.

For the season, Romine hit .244/.295/.417 (91 wRC+) with 10 homers, 12 doubles and 42 RBI, all of which were career-bests. He produced 1.4 bWAR and 0.8 fWAR. He tied for the fifth-highest wRC+ for a secondary catcher.

On the defensive end, Romine was good. I can’t tell you how well he calls a game, but everyone involved with the Yankees raves about his talent there. Baseball Prospectus rated him as an above-average framer with 4.2 Framing Runs. After allowing 28 wild pitches and four passed balls in 2017, he gave up 17 WPs and 5 PBs. He even produced 2.2 Blocking Runs after being negative in that category before 2018. Overall, BP had him with 6.8 Fielding Runs Above Average.

Where Romine often receives criticism is for his poor throwing arm. After throwing out just three of 29 runners last year, he approached league average, nailing 16 of 61 attempted runners. That’s 26 percent while the league caught 28 percent. Not great, but certainly manageable.

The Odd Life of Austin Romine

I just want to get to some of the weird moments in Romine’s season outside of the Little League homer. It was a low-key peculiar season for the Yankees’ backstop and we shouldn’t forget the moments that made it so.

First up, he made one playoff appearance … and it was on the mound. We’d all like to forget ALDS Game 3, but Romine’s appearance was as memorable as they get. Brock Holt homered off him for the cycle, but he wasn’t the worst pitcher the Yankees threw out there that night. He hit 90 mph!

Beyond the mound, Romine was run over at the plate by Caleb Joseph on Aug. 1 and it was just a wonderful mess. Here’s the video … and here’s the aftermath.

And finally, there’s his brother punching him during the middle of a live baseball game. What a sport!

What’s Next?

Romine will be arbitration-eligible for the third and final time in 2019 after turning 30 on Nov. 22. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to receive $2.0 million after earning $1.1 million last season. He’ll be a free agent after the year.

Don’t expect Romine to replicate his 2018 season next year. His tail-off in the second half portends a fall to Earth, though he seemed to legitimately improve at turning on pitches and showing off some power last year. That 10-homer power might just stick.

He also shouldn’t get nearly the playing time he had last year. Sanchez is the starting catcher, plain and simple, and there’s no way he should be as bad in 2019. If he is, then the Yankees need to acquire a catcher instead of turning to Romine. However, Romine can take over in a pinch when Sanchez is inevitably banged up.

The Yankees’ Five Shortest Home Runs of 2018

October 31, 2018 by Mike

There are few things in baseball more enjoyable than a no-doubt home run. The crack of the bat, the hitter stopping for a moment to appreciate what’s he done, the pitcher either getting mad at himself or owning it, the crowd ooohing and aaahing … they’re great. Few things energize the crowd like an out-of-nowhere monster home run.

This post is not about those home runs. We covered those homers earlier this week. This post is about the homers on the opposite end of the spectrum. These are the wall-scrapers. These homers generate a very unique feeling. These are the homers that keep you on the edge of your seat as you watch the ball in flight and wait to see whether it’ll land safely over the wall or stay in play. The thrill of the homer, the agony of the outfielder camped under it.

Yankee Stadium is known to give up hilariously short homers from time to time. Sometimes the short porch comes back to bite the Yankees. Most of the time, it helps them out. Since the ballpark opened in 2009 the Yankees have out-homered their opponents 1,183 to 923 at Yankee Stadium. Quite the gap there. Let’s break down the team’s five* shortest home runs of 2018.

t-5. Andujar vs. David Price

* You’re getting a bonus homer free of charge, folks. The fifth shortest homer of the season is actually two homers tied at the same distance, so I’m including both rather than picking a favorite.

I hope you’re all Miguel Andujar fans. You’re going to see him a bunch in this post. His 25th home run of the season — and his 67th extra-base hit — was one of those classic “what is he swinging at that pitch was out of the zone holy cow how did that carry out” Andujar homers. He seemed to hit a lot of those. This one was against David Price on September 19th. Landed a few rows back in right field.

With that home run Andujar joined Aaron Judge, Joe DiMaggio, Bobby Murcer, and Joe Gordon as the only rookies in franchise history to hit 25 home runs. Gleyber Torres was one short of joining the club. Distance: 340 feet.

t-5. Judge vs. Anibal Sanchez

Judge hit six homers in a ten-game span in late-June and early-July this year, and the fourth of those six homers was this short porch job in an interleague matchup against the Braves. Not a whole lot to this one. Anibal left a cutter up and Judge was able to reach out and drive the ball the other way.

Doesn’t Judge make that look so, so easy? It’s not. If it was, everyone would do it. Those seemingly effortless homers are among my favorites, even if they are Yankee Stadium cheapies. Distance: 340 feet.

4. Romine vs. Jalen Beeks

We’ve all seen countless short porch home runs that would’ve been caught for outs in other ballparks. What about the short porch homers that would’ve been foul balls elsewhere? This is one of those. On August 14th, Austin Romine slashed a fly ball to right field that stayed fair by a few feet and went for a two-run homer. Check it out:

If it were, say, 324 feet down the right field line at Yankee Stadium rather than 314 feet, does that make it out? Or does it slice just foul? I guess we’ll never know. Fortunately, it is 314 feet to right field, not 324 feet, and Romine’s home run put two runs on the board: Distance: 339 feet.

3. Andujar vs. James Paxton

Andujar hit 27 home runs this season and somehow only five were to the opposite field. Doesn’t that seem low? That seems low. I feel like Andujar did a good job spraying the ball around this year. I guess he did, but only so many balls to the opposite field left the yard.

Well, anyway, this homer was part of a three* homer attack against Paxton. I put the asterisk in there because one of those three homers was robbed. Giancarlo Stanton’s fly ball was over the center field wall, the replay made it clear as day, but Mitch Haniger brought it back. Alas. There was no bringing this one back though:

Big fan of Andujar’s helicopter follow through. This homer was not quite the full helicopter, but it’s close. This was the game No. 72 for the Yankees and homer run No. 10 for Andujar. He hit 17 homers in the final 90 games. Pretty good pace, that is. Distance: 399 feet.

2. Stanton vs. Dallas Keuchel

In an upset, the second longest home run by a Yankee this year was not hit in Yankee Stadium. It was hit in Minute Maid Park in Houston. In an even bigger upset, it was not Stanton’s little golf shot into the Crawford Boxes in left field. That homer somehow traveled 384 feet (?), according to Statcast.

No, the team’s second longest homer of the season was Stanton’s first homer of the game a few innings earlier. Keuchel left a changeup up a little too much and Giancarlo lined it into the right field seats for a two-run blast.

I love it when the Yankees bring the short porch on the road. Most hitters poke that pitch the other way for a single, or maybe far enough away from the right fielder for a double. Stanton hit a laser into the seats. That is Not Normal. Distance: 339 feet.

1. Andujar vs. Jaime Schultz

That’s right, the two shortest Yankees’ home runs this season were not hit at Yankee Stadium. Didn’t see that coming, eh? I’ve been doing these posts since 2012 and never before did the team’s shortest homer of the season come on the road, nevermind the two shortest.

Andujar’s third appearance on this list comes courtesy of a home run he hit in the “that’s for you, bitch” game. The Yankees scored four first inning runs against Schultz, the opener du jour, and put that game to bed early. Andujar’s dinger plated the team’s second, third, and fourth homers. Check this out:

Fun Fact: The Rays cut out that portion of the wall in the left field corner so Carl Crawford could rob home runs back in the day. Then Evan Longoria hit a walk-off home run to that spot in Game 162 in 2011 while Crawford failed to catch Robert Andino’s liner in Baltimore, which sent the Rays to the postseason and the Red Sox home following their September collapse. Good times.

Anyway, that ball left Andujar’s bat at 89 mph with a 30° launch angle. If I’m reading the Statcast breakdown correctly, batted balls with the same exit velocity and launch angle go for a home run only 2% of the time. The batting average on such batted balls is .087. Hit it anywhere else on the field, and it’s an out. Hit it down the line toward that little cutout at Tropicana Field, and it’s a three-run home run. Good times. Distance: 337 feet.

Another attempt at a bad contract for bad contract trade with Jacoby Ellsbury

October 30, 2018 by Mike

The 2018-19 offseason is now underway, and over the next several months the Yankees will look to improve their big league roster while sticking to some sort of budget. Every team has a budget. Some teams have bigger budgets than others, but every team has a budget. This past season the Yankees’ budget was the $197M luxury tax threshold, and they stuck to it. They stayed under the threshold.

The luxury tax threshold jumps to $206M next year and the early indications are Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t want to exceed the threshold. “I don’t want to speak for (Hal Steinbrenner), but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us,” said Brian Cashman recently, referring to the fact a portion of the money paid into luxury tax is distributed to other teams.

Cashman indicated he can go to Hal to get approval to exceed the threshold, and I sure hope that is the case, because there are some great free agents out there this winter. Either way, that $206M number is an obstacle of some sorts, and my estimate says the Yankees have $49.7M to spend underneath the threshold. That’s a lot! Not enough for a truly massive free agent spending spree, but it is a lot.

As the Yankees move through the winter they will have to navigate around Jacoby Ellsbury’s albatross contract. There are still two years and roughly $47M remaining on that deal, and Ellsbury missed the entire 2018 season with injuries. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough for Opening Day. This is also a guy who hit .261/.331/.372 (91 wRC+) in his last 1,500 plate appearances. Now he’s a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery. Yuck.

Trading Ellsbury for value is pretty much a pipe dream at this point. The best case scenario is trading him and saving some money, and, even then, the Yankees will have to kick in a sweeter. Remember the Chase Headley trade? The Yankees attached Bryan Mitchell to Headley and saved $13M (!) against the luxury tax this year. Doing something similar with Ellsbury feels like it would take a minor miracle, at least something that leads to that much savings.

Rather than shoot for the moon, I think I’ve found a smaller bad contract for bad contract swap that could work for both teams. The details:

Yankees get: Wei-Yin Chen
Marlins get: Jacoby Ellsbury and an out of options arm

No, it is not the most exciting trade in the world, but it doesn’t have to be exciting to be worthwhile. Long story short, the Yankees and Marlins would move some money around, which would improve the luxury tax situation in the Bronx and send a younger pitcher to Miami. Let’s break this down.

1. How does the math work? The Yankees and Marlins are concerned about very different numbers. The Yankees are worried more about the luxury tax hit than the actual salary. They care about the actual salary too, don’t get me wrong, but the luxury tax has been driving all their decisions recently. The Marlins, meanwhile, are focused on actual salary. They’re not close to the luxury tax threshold. Luxury tax hits mean nothing to them.

Both Ellsbury and Chen have two years remaining on their contracts. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47M while Chen is owed $42M. Here’s the full breakdown:

	Chen	Ellsbury
2019 Salary	$20M	$21.14M
2020 Salary	$22M	$21.14M
Option Buyout	N/A	$5M
Total Remaining	$42M	$47.28M
Contract	5 yrs, $80M	7 yrs, $153M
Contract AAV	$16M	$21.86M

A straight up trade would save the Yankees $5.86M against the luxury tax in 2019 and again in 2020 ($21.86M minus $16M). They wouldn’t save $13M like the Headley trade, but it’s something, and something is better than nothing. Ellsbury hasn’t played since last year and he’s just sitting on the roster, soaking up luxury tax payroll space. This at least clears some of that space.

Of course, a straight one-for-one trade means the Marlins would absorb $5.28M in real salary spread across 2019-20 ($47.28M minus $42M). Would they do that? Not out of the kindness of their hearts. That’s where the out of options arm comes in.

2. Why would the Marlins do this? The Marlins have two options. One, they could keep Chen and pay him that $42M the next two years. Chen is 33 years old, he has a 4.75 ERA (4.38 FIP) over the last three seasons, and he’s missed a bunch of time with lingering elbow trouble. He has no long-term value to a rebuilding team like Miami. He’s an innings guy they hope will stay healthy and pitch well enough to create some trade value, which is unlikely. That rarely happens.

Or two, they could make the trade outlined above and essentially buy a young pitcher. The Yankees have three out of options pitchers, meaning they can’t be sent to the minors next season without going through waivers: Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, and Domingo German. (Tommy Kahnle is out of options too, but I don’t think he’d interest the Marlins.) I’d rank those three pitchers German, Cessa, Cole in that order. Remember that $5.28M the Marlins would have to eat in the trade? How’s this work:

Marlins eat all $5.28M and get German.
Marlins eat half the $5.28M and get Cessa.
Marlins eat none of the $5.28M and get Cole.

The more money Miami eats, the better the pitcher they get in return. (Who the Marlins consider the best pitcher may not be who I consider the best pitcher, obviously.) If they eat the $5.28M difference in salary, they get a the best young pitcher in German and the Yankees get Chen with a $16M luxury tax hit. If the Yankees have to eat the entire $5.28M, the Marlins get the worst out of options arm in Cole and the Yankees get Chen with an $18.64M luxury tax hit — that’s the $5.28M cut in half and added to the $16M in 2019 and 2020 — which is still $3.22M in luxury tax savings in 2019 and 2020.

So it boils down to this: The Marlins can either keep Chen, who has no value to them, or make the trade and get a young enough arm who might help long-term. They’re buying a young arm, basically. Keep in mind Marlins executive Gary Denbo was the Yankees’ farm system head from 2014-17. He presumably has some insight into German and Cessa, which could help push things along. The $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Marlins have to pay it to someone no matter that. They can either pay it to Ellsbury and get a younger pitcher in the process, or pay it to Chen.

3. Why would the Yankees do this? For the luxury tax savings, obviously. The worst case scenario here is eating the $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in Cole, who is probably not going to stick on the roster all offseason anyway, and saving $3.22M against the luxury tax payroll. The best case scenario is the shedding the full $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in German, who also might not stick on the roster all offseason, and saving $5.86M against the luxury tax. Worthwhile either way.

What do the Yankees do with Chen? Beats me. They could simply release him. I’d recommend taking Chen into Spring Training and seeing whether he can help in some capacity, even as a mop-up guy, then making a decision at the end of camp. Again, the $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Yankees have to pay it no matter what, and, right now, they’re paying it to Ellsbury to do nothing. Maybe they can instead pay it to Chen to soak up low-leverage innings. The primary objective here is the luxury tax savings. Anything Chen gives them is a bonus.

4. Why would Ellsbury agree to this? Ellsbury’s contract includes a full no-trade clause. Even if it didn’t, he’s been with the Yankees long enough now to pick up five-and-ten rights, which is kinda crazy. Why would Ellsbury go to the Marlins? There is only one good reason: Because they’ll release him. That’s the condition of the trade. The Marlins have to release Ellsbury immediately after the deal.

It sounds crazy, I know, but it is not unprecedented. Remember the big Dodgers-Braves salary shuffle deal that sent Matt Kemp back to Los Angeles last offseason? Adrian Gonzalez was in that trade and Atlanta had to release him as the condition to get him to waive his no-trade clause. Gonzalez got to keep every penny in his contract and pick his next team, who he could sign with at the pro-rated minimum. Once the Marlins release Ellsbury, he’d still get every penny, he’d get to pick his next team, and it wouldn’t cost anyone anything substantial to sign him. For Ellsbury, that would presumably be preferable to sticking with the Yankees, who don’t seem to have a place for him.

* * *

Over the next two years the Marlins owe Chen $42M and the Yankees owe Ellsbury $47.28M. There’s no getting out of that money. So, to make the best of a bad situation, the two teams could swap those contracts and figure out what to do with the $5.28M difference. Shouldn’t be hard. The Yankees would get a lower luxury tax hit and the Marlins would add a pitcher in his mid-20s with a chance to help long-term. And if he doesn’t, so be it. But at least they get to try.

A win-win? Well, I wouldn’t go that far. This is more like two teams making the best of a bad situation. They’re both stuck paying an unproductive veteran $40-something-million in real dollars the next two years. The Yankees and Marlins can either stick with their current situation, or work with each other to make things a little more palatable. To me, it seems better than staying with the status quo.

A Half-Season of Greatness and a Half-Season of Knee Trouble for the Closer [2018 Season Review]

October 30, 2018 by Mike

Aroldis Chapman’s first full season as a Yankee was up and down. Early season shoulder trouble and inconsistent performance meant Chapman finished with a 3.22 ERA (2.56 FIP) in 50.1 innings last year — those were his highest marks since 2011 — before he rebounded late and pitched well in October. The strong finish gave everyone hope we’d see vintage Chapman in 2018.

And vintage Chapman we did see, at least in the first half, before his left knee injury became too much to bear. In 51.1 innings this year Chapman posted a 2.45 ERA (2.09 FIP) with a 43.9% strikeout rate, the second highest mark of his career. The strikeout rate leaderboard (min. 50 innings):

Josh Hader: 46.7%
Edwin Diaz: 44.3%
Aroldis Chapman: 43.9%
Dellin Betances: 42.3%
Corey Knebel: 39.5%

Chapman was selected to his fifth career All-Star Game this year and he did finish strong in late September and the postseason, though the knee injury sabotaged his second half. Even when he was deemed healthy enough to pitch following the All-Star break, Chapman struggled. The injury was a real bummer. Time to dig into his season.

The Dominant First Half

Late last season Chapman attributed his strong finish and postseason to a grip change. He reportedly switched from his usual fastball grip, which was more like a cutter grip, to a true four-seam grip. The velocity and life returned, and Chapman was better able to locate the pitch as well. That success carried over into this season.

Chapman went 26-for-27 in save chances in the first half — the Yankees came back to win following the lone blown save too — and was just overwhelming. Six runs and 33 baserunners in 40 innings with 68 strikeouts. He held opponents to a .126/.234/.207 batting line and never once in 41 first half appearances did Chapman allow more than one run.

For me, the most memorable moment of Chapman’s season came on May 3rd, in the final game of the four-game series in Houston. The Yankees scored three in the top of the ninth to take a 6-5 lead, then, with the tying run on second and the go-ahead run at first, Chapman blew Jose Altuve away on three pitches to end the game. Look at this at-bat:

Goodness. All-Star closer and the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball history against the reigning AL MVP with the game on the line? That’s as good as it gets right there, and Chapman completely overpowered Altuve. That game was in the middle of a stretch in which Chapman struck out 15 of 25 batters faced across six appearances.

The Yankees signed Chapman to what is still the largest reliever contract in baseball history two offseasons ago because they wanted dominance in the ninth inning, and although they didn’t really get it last year, Chapman was more than up to the task in the first half this season. He was excellent and he was rightfully selected to the All-Star Game, though he had to sit out the game because of …

The Lingering Knee Injury

We first got wind of Chapman’s left knee issue in June. He threw a pitch during his June 8th save against the Mets, hobbled around a little bit, and trainer Steve Donohue came out to check on him. Chapman remained in the game and finished things off, then revealed he’d been pitching through left knee tendinitis for several weeks.

“I don’t think it’s that much of a concern. It’s been something he has been dealing with,” said Aaron Boone following the game. “Every now and then when he is running around, backing up, we get a lump in our throat, but it hasn’t been something that has affected him at all throwing and it hasn’t been something he has said is an issue for him other than staying on top of it and getting the proper treatment. I feel he is good to go moving forward. Any time any of our players have an issue, it’s a concern, but I don’t think it’s anything that’s affecting his pitching right now.”

Chapman continued to receive treatment and continued to pitch — he got another save the very next night — and there were no indications the knee was giving him trouble. In 14 appearances between that June 8th outing and the All-Star break, Chapman allowed four hits and five walks in 13.1 innings. He struck out 22. It would’ve been impossible to tell he was pitching hurt had he not limped a bit following a pitch during that June 8th game.

It wasn’t until Chapman’s first appearance following the All-Star break that something was clearly wrong. He faced five batters on July 21st and went walk, single, walk, walk, hit-by-pitch. Nineteen pitches, three strikes. Chapman came in with a 7-3 lead and left with a 7-5 lead and the bases loaded and no outs. Chasen Shreve came in and managed to close out the game. Felt like a miracle.

In his first nine appearances after the All-Star break Chapman walked eleven batters in seven innings, and the Yankees gave him as much rest as possible. Know how late-inning relievers will sometimes get into a game simply because they need work? Not Chapman in late-July and August. At one point he made only five appearances in 21 days, and three times he pitched with six days rest.

On August 21st in Miami, Chapman entered with a one-run lead — it was his first appearance in six days — and had to exit the game after six pitches. The knee had become too painful. Chapman went for an MRI the next day and headed to the disabled list with what the Yankees called knee tendinitis.

“I felt that it was a good decision to stop pitching at that time. The (pain) intensity was higher and you kind of ask yourself, ‘What’s really going on?’ So that’s why I called the trainers, because I felt that it was a good idea to stop pitching,” Chapman said. “We don’t have a set time (to return). Right now, I’ve got to see how it goes and kind of get a better idea as the following days go by. That’s what you hope for, that it’s only ten days and you take this time to recuperate and get back to being 100%. That’s definitely what you hope for.”

Chapman spent about a month on the disabled list. He exited the Marlins game on August 21st and his first game back was September 20th. That first outing was a disaster (three runs and two outs), but Chapman was nails the next four times out (3.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K) as the Yankees eased him back into action as a middle reliever. He resumed ninth inning duties in the postseason and closed out the Wild Card Game and ALCS Game Two wins, and also threw a scoreless inning in the ALCS Game Four loss. The knee was no longer an issue.

Emphasizing The Slider

For what I am sure is several reasons rather than one big reason, Chapman’s velocity was down in 2018. His heater averaged 99.3 mph this season, which is obviously excellent, but is down considerably from 100.2 mph last year and 101.1 mph the year before. The 104s and 105s were replaced with 100s and 101s. Chapman’s average velocity the last five years:

Ten times in his final 20 regular season appearances Chapman’s fastball averaged under 98 mph. He did that 16 times total in 298 appearances from 2013-17. Yeah. Chapman turns 31 in February and has a lot of innings on his arm, and Father Time remains undefeated. Every pitcher loses velocity with age, especially once they hit 30, and Chapman is no different.

In this case though, there’s also an injury to consider. Chapman’s injury was to his left knee, his push off knee, and he may not have been able to push off properly and generate his trademark velocity. Or maybe he held back some in an effort to prevent further pain or damage to the knee. That’s something that can happen subconsciously. When you’re hurting, it’s only human nature to protect the injury.

Whatever the reason, Chapman lost some velocity this season, and sometimes it was very noticeable. He compensated for the velocity loss by throwing more sliders, in some cases many more. Chapman even had three outings in which he threw more sliders than changeups. That never used to happen. The slider was featured more this season than ever before, and you know what? It worked very well. Some slider numbers:

	% Thrown	Avg. Velocity	Whiffs-per-Swing	GB%
2015	16.5%	87.6 mph	51.2%	27.8%
2016	15.3%	88.7 mph	51.9%	42.1%
2017	19.8%	87.8 mph	44.3%	42.9%
2018	25.5%	86.7 mph	60.2%	57.1%

Slider usage is up — the fact Chapman increased his slider usage last year and again this year leads me to believe this has been in the works a while rather than be a spur of the moment thing in response to the knee and velocity loss — and wow look at those results. This season the MLB averages were 35.5% whiffs-per-swing and 43.9% grounders for sliders. Chapman was well above both marks.

It makes sense though, right? Chapman has a pretty good slider and, even with his diminished velocity this year, the hitter still has to respect the 100+ mph heater. When hitters are gearing up for a triple-digit fastball and get a mid-to-upper-80s slider like this …

… dropped on them, well, it can lead to swings like that. The slider went from show-me pitch in the past to a legitimate weapon for Chapman this season. He threw it more in all situations. Behind in the count, ahead in the count, with two strikes to righties and lefties, whatever. The Yankees and Chapman changed the scouting report a bit this season and that slider allowed him to remain (very) effective even while hobbled and with something less than his peak velocity.

The thought that Aroldis Chapman, the guy who most stands out for his velocity in this era of big velocity, is losing velocity is kinda scary! At 102-105 mph, he’s untouchable. At 97-98 mph, he’s a bit more human. What happens in a year or two when he might be 95-97 mph? Eek. The fact Chapman successfully emphasized his slider this year and turned it into a weapon is encouraging to me. He’s made an adjustment and found a way to get outs (found a way to still dominate, really) even without being able to throw 105 mph by everyone. I was glad to see it.

What’s Next?

Next season is the third year on Chapman’s five-year contract and it’s a big one, because he can opt out next offseason. He’d walk away from two years and $34.4M. It is way, way, way too early to say whether Chapman will opt out. If the knee and everything else hold up next year and he dominates, my guess is he’d opt-out, even with the velocity loss. Chapman could wind up with more guaranteed money, even if he takes a pay cut annually.

The opt-out isn’t really worth worrying about right now. It’s so far away and so much can happen between now and then. Brian Cashman recently told Brendan Kuty that an offseason of rest will “clean up” whatever’s wrong with Chapman’s knee, which is good, because avoiding surgery is always preferred. With a full no-trade clause and the Yankees valuing a deep bullpen, there is no reason to believe Chapman will be anything other than the team’s closer going into next season.

The Yankees’ Five Longest Home Runs of 2018

October 30, 2018 by Mike

As far as home runs go, the 2018 Yankees lived up to the hype. The set a new Major League record with 267 homers, and they did that despite Aaron Judge missing close to the two months, Giancarlo Stanton not having a typical Giancarlo Stanton year, and Gary Sanchez being either hurt or ineffective all year. This club would’ve shattered the previous homer record (264 by the 1997 Mariners) with everyone at full strength.

As far as home run distance goes, the 2018 Yankees lagged behind the 2017 Yankees and the rest of the league. Part of it is the ball seemingly being de-juiced — there were 5,585 homers hit this season after a record 6,105 last season — and part of it is the aforementioned injuries and ineffectiveness. Some quick average home run distance numbers:

2018 Yankees: 394 feet (25th in MLB; MLB average: 397 feet)
2017 Yankees: 399 feet (18th in MLB; MLB average: 400 feet)

Blame the short porch. The Yankees certainly hit some long home runs this season, as we’ll see in the bit, but they also hit a ton of short porch Yankee Stadium cheapies, which drag down their average home run distance. I will happily continue to trade average home run distance rank for actual runs on the board in games. The Yankees really know how to use their home ballpark.

Anyway, dingers rule, and as a fan of dingers I’ve been putting these “five longest homers of the season” posts together since 2010. Last year’s post was an all-timer. Only one of the 35 home runs covered in the 2010-16 posts would’ve appeared in the 2017 post. This year isn’t quiet as majestic, but it’s still pretty fun. Let’s dive into the Yankees’ five longest home runs of 2018.

5. Stanton vs. Blake Snell

On Opening Day, Stanton clobbered two impressive home runs in the Game One win over the Blue Jays. Five days later he heard boos at Yankee Stadium after going 0-for-5 with five strikeouts. Fans, eh? The next day, in the team’s sixth game of the year, Stanton hit the team’s fifth longest home run of the season to silence the boos.

The first at-bat homer against likely AL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell was Stanton’s first homer at Yankee Stadium as a Yankee. (He hit one in the Bronx as a Marlin.) Also, that was the only game all year in which Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton all hit home runs. Happened once all year. Distance: 458 feet.

4. Sanchez vs. Kyle Gibson

Sanchez woke up on the morning of September 10th with a hideous .181/.279/.400 (84 wRC+) batting line in 308 plate appearances around two stints on the disabled list. He’d gone 3-for-25 (.120) with one home run in his first seven games back from his second groin injury, and while it’s somewhat understandable after the long layoff, it made it no less frustrating to watch.

Later that night Gary had what we all hoped would prove to be a big breakout game (it wasn’t) against the Twins. Sanchez had a homer, a single, and a double in the span of three at-bats from the sixth through eighth innings. Kyle Gibson served up the home run that broke the scoreless tie.

That is one of those home runs that leaves you shaking your head in disbelief. How could anyone hit that pitch in that location …

… that far out of the ballpark? That’s a 95 mph two-seamer diving down and in, and out of the zone. Sanchez was still able to get good wood on it and park it in the third deck at Target Field. Pretty wild. Distance: 460 feet.

3. Sanchez vs. Josh Tomlin

Poor Josh Tomlin. That dude allowed 25 home runs in 70.1 innings this season. That works out to a 3.2 HR/9. More than one every three innings. Here are the fewest innings among pitchers with 25+ home runs allowed in baseball history:

Josh Tomlin, 2018 Indians: 70.1 innings
Chris Young, 2016 Royals: 88.2 innings
Bruce Chen, 2006 Orioles: 98.2 innings
Danny Darwin, 1995 Rangers & Blue Jays: 99 innings
David Hernandez, 2009 Orioles: 101.1 innings

Two Orioles in the top five seems about right. Sanchez took Tomlin deep on May 4th for the 13th of those 25 home runs. It was the third home run Tomlin allowed in that game. Gleyber Torres and Judge took him deep earlier in the game, though neither hit the ball as far as Sanchez, who hammered a no-doubter to left.

Another pitch out of the zone. The Gibson home run came on a pitch below the zone and the Tomlin homer came on a pitch above the zone. Oddly enough, those are two of only three (maaaybe four) home runs Sanchez hit on pitches outside the strike zone this year. (The third is the walk-off homer against the Twins.) Distance: 461 feet.

2. Judge vs. Tony Barnette

Judge dominated this list last year. He hit five the team’s sixth longest home runs last season. This year, he hit only one of the five longest. Blame the wrist injury, which not only took away seven weeks of playing time, but also sapped his power a bit for the first few games following his return.

Long before the wrist injury Judge clocked his longest home run of the season and the Yankees’ second longest home run of the season. It came on May 23rd in Texas and this is the inevitable home run I couldn’t remember. Usually as I compile these posts, I see the distance and the hitter and the pitcher, and it’ll jog the memory of the homer. This one drew a blank. There’s always one each year. The video:

Ah yes, that’s the good stuff. That’s the classic “oh yeah, I got all of that one” Aaron Judge swing followed by quick step out of the box and a jog around the bases. That was the sixth homer as part of an eleven-homers-in-29-games tear for Judge that spanned May 4th to June 9th. Distance: 471 feet.

1. Sanchez vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

Plot twist: The Yankees’ longest home run of the year did not come during the regular season. It came in the postseason. It was the team’s longest homer of 2018 and also their last homer of 2018. At least it was one to remember.

In Game Two of the ALCS, with the Yankees holding a far too narrow 3-1 lead, Sanchez unloaded on a mistake fastball from Eduardo Rodriguez for a sorely needed three-run insurance homer. Look at this blast. Just look at it:

It’s hard to tell from the video but I’m pretty sure the ball cleared the big Fanatics sign and sailed out of Fenway Park entirely. Either way, Sanchez hit that ball out to the deepest part of the park and over the highest wall in baseball, and it was an absolute no-doubter. Second homer of the game for Gary too. Without them, the Yankees probably get swept in the ALDS. Distance: 480 feet.

* * *

It is in no way surprising that Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton accounted for the five longest home runs of the season for the Yankees. Actually, they accounted for the 14 (!) longest home runs by a Yankee this year. For the sake of variety, here are the team’s five longest homers hit by someone other than Judge, Sanchez, or Stanton:

August 27th: Gleyber Torres vs. Carlos Rodon (444 feet) (video)
May 20th: Austin Romine vs. Jason Adam (440 feet) (video)
May 20th: Tyler Austin vs. Erik Skoglund (440 feet) (video)
May 23rd: Neil Walker vs. Doug Fister (436 feet) (video)
June 13th: Gleyber Torres vs. Erick Fedde (435 feet) (video)

Austin Romine? Austin Romine. We only have four seasons worth of data, but that is not Romine’s longest home run of the Statcast era. He blasted a 442-foot dinger back in 2016 (video). Huh. Well, anyway, the homers by guys other than Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton aren’t quite as impressive, but that’s okay. They all count the same. Long home runs sure are fun though, aren’t they?

Hot Stove Rumors & News: Harper, Machado, Free Agents

October 29, 2018 by Mike

Only 107 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, give or take. Doesn’t seem so bad, does it? No, it does. I miss baseball already. Anyway, here is the offseason calendar in case you missed it earlier, and here are the latest hot stove rumors and news tidbits.

Pursuing Harper is “not part of the plan”

Right on schedule. According to Andy Martino, pursuing free agent Bryce Harper this offseason is “not part of the plan” for the Yankees. The Yankees are going to prioritize pitching this winter and Harper doesn’t really fit. That’s silly, of course, because you can always make room for a player like Harper. When’s the last time a player like this — a star caliber producer in his mid-20s — hit the open market? It’s been a very long time.

Anyway, like I said, this report is right on schedule. Day One of the offseason and the Yankees are downplaying their interest in the best free agent to hit the market in years? Textbook posturing. And you know, even if this is true and the Yankees are not planning to pursue Harper, things can change. I don’t think anyone in the front office had Giancarlo Stanton in mind at this time last winter. This report means nothing to me. A team downplaying interest in a free agent is Hot Stove 101 stuff.

Yankees are “lukewarm” on Machado

In addition to totally not having interesting in Harper (wink wink), the Yankees are only “lukewarm” on Manny Machado, reports Martino. Martino says the Yankees were put off by Machado’s postseason antics, specifically his dirty as hell kick of Jesus Aguilar and his unabashed admission that he’s never going to hustle. Machado has had the “dirty player” label for a while, dating back to when he threw his bat at the Athletics, but things really came to a head this October.

To me, the Yankees being put off my Machado’s postseason display is far more believable than simply not having interest in Harper because he might not fit the roster. It’s going to take a lot of money and a lot of years to sign Machado. If he’s playing dirty now and he’s not hustling right before his big free agent payday, what happens when he’s got that huge guaranteed contract? Teams have overlooked far worse things, of course, and Machado is a great player in his mid-20s. Dude’s going to get paid. But I can understand not liking what you saw in the postseason.

145 players become free agents

Earlier this morning 145 players officially became free agents, the MLBPA announced. Here’s the full list. As expected, eight Yankees are now free agents:

New York Yankees (8): Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Adeiny Hechavarría, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, CC Sabathia, Neil Walker

Several more players will become free agents later this week when their options are declined or they use their opt-outs. Brett Gardner could be among them. The Yankees have until Wednesday to exercise his $12.5M club option or buy him out for $2M. Honestly, neither outcome would surprise me.

The Most Disappointing Player in MLB [2018 Season Review]

October 29, 2018 by Mike

Coming into the 2018 season, nowhere else on the field did I think the Yankees would have a bigger advantage over their opponents than at catcher. The only catcher who I was comfortable assuming would outproduce Gary Sanchez this season was Buster Posey, and even that was a little up in the air.

The Yankees called Sanchez up for good on August 2nd, 2016, following their trade deadline purge. Here’s where Gary ranked among all catchers from that date through the end of the 2017 regular season (min. 400 plate appearances for rate stats):

AVG: .283 (sixth)
OBP: .357 (fourth)
SLG: .561 (first by 48 points)
wRC+: 140 (first by 13 points)
HR: 41 (first by seven)
XBH: 66 (tied for first)

There was a weird little narrative floating around Spring Training that said, despite all their high quality players, Sanchez was the Yankees’ best hitter. I never really bought into it (folks, Aaron Judge is really freakin’ good) but it wasn’t the craziest thing in the world, I don’t think. Now? Now it sounds silly.

Sanchez’s disaster 2018 season ended with a .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) batting line and 18 home runs in 374 plate appearances around a pair of groin-related stints on the disabled list. There have been 1,005 instances of a player batting 300 times in a single season for the Yankees. Gary’s .186 AVG is second lowest to someone named Red Kleinow (.168 in 1908).

I guess the good news is Sanchez did hit two homers in ALDS Game Two, which helped the Yankees even the series at a game apiece. That’s more than anyone other than Judge did in the series.

Defensively, Sanchez again led the league in passed balls, this time committing 18 in 653 innings. Last year it was 16 in 881 innings. He struggled on both sides of the ball and was, hands down, the most disappointing Yankee in 2018. In fact, I’d call him the most disappointing player in baseball this year. Who else flopped so greatly after going into 2018 with such high expectations? I can’t think of anyone.

That the Yankees won 100 games despite Sanchez’s awfulness is a testament to their talent and depth and in no way absolves Gary. Who knows where the Yankees would’ve wound up had Sanchez played up to expectations? Let’s dig into Gary’s disaster season.

Power, But Little Else

I know everyone wants to talk about the defense and passed balls, but we’ll get to that in a moment. We have to start with the offense because Gary will forever be a bat first player, and this season he was terrible with the bat. You saw the overall batting line: .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in nearly 400 plate appearances. The 18 homers salvaged things a bit — even with all the missed time, Sanchez still had the fifth most homers among catchers — but the AVG and OBP? Yuck.

Gary started the season slowly, going 2-for-36 (.056) with zero walks in his first nine games. He went on a six-week tear after that, hitting .292/.396/.681 (185 wRC+) with eleven home runs in 31 games from April 11st through May 21st. That was the Gary Sanchez everyone was expecting. After that though? Sanchez cratered and hit .151/.264/.285 (53 wRC+) in his final 49 games around the groin injuries. Gary’s season in graph form:

Throughout the season I saw two common explanations bandied about for Sanchez’s struggles: He chased out of the zone too much and he got too pull happy. Possible! Except Sanchez posted the lowest chase rate (33.1%) and lowest pull rate (51.1%) in his relatively brief big league career. That doesn’t mean Sanchez didn’t chase too often or get too pull happy at times — both those rates are above the league average (30.4% and 40.3%) — it just means this wasn’t as big a problem as it may have seemed.

One thing Gary continued to do this year, even while struggling, is hit the ball hard. Very hard. His 41.6% hard hit rate and 90.3 mph average exit velocity were both well above the 34.1% and 87.3 mph league averages, respectively. Sanchez managed a 90.3 mph average exit velocity and a .343 xwOBA. Seventy players posted an average exit velocity north of 90 mph this year while putting at least 200 balls in play. The bottom of the leaderboard:

66. D.J. LeMahieu: .352 xwOBA
67. Melky Cabrera: .352 xwOBA
68. Ian Desmond: .346 xwOBA
69. Gary Sanchez: .343 xwOBA
70. Russell Martin: .317 xwOBA

Expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, is based on exit velocity and launch angle and things like that. It essentially tells us what a player would be expected to produce based on the quality of his contact. Sanchez hit the ball quite hard this year, yet his expected production was relatively low. Statcast has all sorts of neat batted ball breakdowns that help explain why.

	Weak	Topped	Under	Flare	Solid	Barrel
2017 Sanchez	2.5%	31.0%	21.4%	26.5%	6.8%	11.8%
2018 Sanchez	2.6%	34.2%	26.8%	15.6%	6.9%	13.9%
MLB AVG	4.8%	34.4%	24.3%	24.9%	5.5%	6.1%

Here’s the full definition of a barrel. The short version: It’s the best possible contact. High exit velocity at an ideal launch angle. Sanchez, even this year, squares balls up at an extraordinarily high rate. More than double the league average, in fact. The 18 home runs and overall power production tell us Gary still made a lot of loud contact this year. When he squared a pitch up, he absolutely crushed it.

The biggest difference between 2017 Sanchez and 2018 Sanchez is that a lot of flares — those are balls that are not necessarily well struck, but do fall in for hits — were replaced by pitches Sanchez either topped or got under. You can hit a ball hard and still hit a grounder. A topped ball is a weak grounder. And getting under a pitch is, well, getting under a pitch. A pop-up or a routine fly ball. Replacing flares with topped pitches and getting under the ball is how you go from a .304 BABIP in 2017 to a .197 BABIP* in 2018 like Sanchez.

* Reliable stat keeping goes back far enough that there are 21,946 player seasons of at 300 plate appearances on record. Sanchez’s .197 BABIP is 33rd lowest among those 21,946 seasons. Insane.

The two disabled list stints probably didn’t help matters — including minor league rehab, Sanchez had 46 plate appearances from June 24th through August 31st — but my theory is Gary launch angled himself out of whack at the plate. I think he sold out for power and I think it got worse as the season went on. There were times it looked like Sanchez was trying to hit a five-run home run to make up for his entire season in one at-bat. I think he sold out for power, threw himself into a mechanical funk, then started pressing when he wasn’t having the season we all expected, and that made it all worse.

A few pieces of good news. One, Sanchez was still able to hit the ball hard. I’d be much more worried going forward if he wasn’t hitting the ball hard. The ability to drive the ball like few others is still in there. We saw it in the postseason. Two, Sanchez’s strikeout rate didn’t explode this year. He finished the year with a 25.1% strikeout rate, which is higher than last year (22.9%) but not outrageously so. A strikeout rate nearing or above 30% would’ve been worrisome.

And three, Sanchez really upped his walk rate this year. His 12.3% walk rate is far higher than last year’s 7.6% walk rate. Gary drew 40 walks (one intentional) in 525 plate appearances last year. He drew 46 walks (zero intentional) in 374 plate appearances this year. I don’t think there’s a physical deficiency here. It’s not like Sanchez lost strength. The adjustment this offseason figures to be more mechanical and more about approach.

“They were pitching me very tough throughout the whole season. They were executing very good pitches that were out of the strike zone, but I was swinging at them,” said Sanchez to Randy Miller a few weeks ago. “That’s one of the things that I want to work on in the offseason. Command the strike zone better. Be a more selective hitter.”

The Passed Ball Hysteria

I hate passed balls and wild pitches. I watch an embarrassing amount of baseball and it seems to me the official scorer is guessing half the time. I’ve seen pitches skip through the catcher’s legs be called wild pitches and pitches in the other batter’s box be called a passed ball. I am for combining passed balls and wild pitches into one “passed pitches” stat that gets assigned to both the pitcher and catcher. Takes all the guesswork out of official scoring. /end rant

Anyway, Sanchez allowed 18 passed balls (63 passed pitches) in 653 innings this year after allowing 16 passed balls (69 passed pitches) in 881 innings last year. He went from one passed pitch every 12.8 innings to one every 10.4 innings. That’s one extra passed pitch every four games or so. Sanchez’s blocking issues came to a head one night in Oakland in early September, when four passed pitches (two passed balls and two wild pitches, officially) got by him in the first inning.

“I had a chance to stop all of them. I just didn’t do it,” Sanchez said after the game. “(Luis Severino and I) definitely had some trouble getting on the same page in the first inning. I would say there were some pitches there that I should have done a better job blocking or protecting them from going to the back.”

It’s easy to make excuses for Sanchez’s poor blocking. For starters, the Yankees have a pitching staff that isn’t easy to catch. The Yankees had the highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) and third highest average breaking ball spin rate (2,517 rpm) in baseball this year. That’s a lot of high-octane heaters and a lot of high-spinning breakers. Catching this pitching staff is not easy.

Secondly, MLB limited mound visits this season and that means fewer conversations — remember how often Sanchez visited the mound last year? — and thus greater potential for cross-ups. We saw a lot of them this year with Gary behind the plate. And third, pretty much every team is paranoid about sign-stealing this days and uses multiple signs with no one on. That also increases the chances of a cross-up and a ball getting by the catcher. I mean, look at the postseason. There seemed to be two or three balls getting by the catcher every game.

All of that should be considered when evaluating Sanchez’s blocking. Now, that all said, he is still really bad at it. People are quick to call Gary lazy the same way they were quick to call Robinson Cano lazy (gee, wonder what the connection is there) but, to me, this is a technique problem more than anything. For example, I have no idea what Sanchez is doing with his right leg here:

He does that all the time. Gary rarely drops to both knees to block pitches in the dirt, and instead leaves his five-hole wide open, and balls skips through. That has to be corrected. It won’t solve all of Sanchez’s passed ball issues — we’ve seen plenty of catchable pitches inexcusably clank off his glove — but it’ll help cut down on them, undoubtedly. The Yankees have three former catchers on the coaching staff (bench coach Josh Bard, catching coach Jason Brown, and assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere) and fixing that leg and improving Sanchez’s technique has to be a priority.

I suppose the good news is that, if you’re going to be (very) bad at something defensively as a catcher, blocking pitches a “good” thing to be bad at. Baseball Prospectus has detailed catcher defense stats and the best blocker (Tucker Barnhart) finished at +3.6 runs saved in 2018. The worst (Omar Narvaez) was at -4.6 runs. In one individual game, that extra 90 feet can be huge. Over the course of the season, blocking is not he most impactful thing in the game.

One-hundred-and-fifteen players caught in the big leagues this year, not counting Joe Mauer’s farewell pitch. Here’s where Sanchez ranks among those 115 catchers in BP’s various catcher defense metrics:

Framing: +3.3 runs (23rd)
Throwing: +0.2 runs (12th)
Blocking: -4.3 runs runs (114th)
Total Fielding: -0.9 runs (79th — this is everything above plus plays on pop-ups and grounders)

Kinda weird the throwing runs total is so low, isn’t it? James McCann led the league at +1.1 and Robinson Chirinos was last at -0.8. Huh. Well, whatever. (For what it’s worth, FanGraphs has Sanchez eighth with +2 throwing runs.)

These are counting stats, so Sanchez’s framing and throwing is hurt by the missed time while his blocking would’ve surely ranked last in the league had he played more. Point is, Sanchez is quite good at everything behind the plate except blocking. He frames well and he throws well, and the Yankees believe he calls a good game.

“I think he’s our best game-caller,” said Brian Cashman to Randy Miller a few weeks ago. “He shuts down the opposing team’s running game. And obviously, he’s a threat at the plate every pitch. So I think he’s by far our best option behind the plate for us.”

Gary stinks at blocking, and that’s kinda important, but it’s wrong to act like he offers nothing back there. He very clearly does. The throwing and framing are quite valuable. If you’re a believer in “pitcher performance with this specific catcher” stats, the pitching staff performed better with Sanchez (3.50 ERA and 93 OPS+) than either Austin Romine (4.06 and 104) or Kyle Higashioka (3.80 and 113) behind the plate this year. The Yankees have to help Gary improve his technique though. Whatever that is he’s doing with his right leg is costing him dearly.

What’s Next?

Not surprisingly, teams are already calling about Sanchez. They see an opportunity to buy low on a 25-year-old catcher with four years of team control who was the best hitter at the position a year ago. If Sanchez were on another team, we’d all want the Yankees to go out and get him. Catcher is an extremely hard position to fill and few backstops in the game offer Gary’s long-term potential.

A year ago at this time Sanchez looked to be on the cusp of superstardom. Now he’s more of a reclamation project. Sanchez has to get right at the plate, first and foremost. There are some approach and (likely) mechanical issues that need to be fixing. That’s most important. Gary also has to continue working on his blocking. That’s the missing piece defensively. An offseason trade is so very unlikely, meaning Sanchez will report to Tampa for Spring Training in a few weeks as the No. 1 catcher, and, after the season he just had, he’ll be under the microscope more than ever before.