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2018 Division Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

October 5, 2018 by Steven Tydings

The MVP roars. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Baseball’s premier rivalry meets again in the postseason, 14 years after a pair of epic Championship Series duels. This time, it will be a five-game set and the Red Sox have home-field advantage thanks to a tremendous regular season.

The Season Series

Boston was the only team to best the Yankees in the season series this year, taking 10 of 19 from the Bombers after winning the season finale. The Sox outscored the Yankees, 116-102, and dealt the decisive blow to their division hopes with a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in August. The Yankees took six of nine at Yankee Stadium but mustered just three wins in 10 tries in Boston.

Who stood out? Rick Porcello went 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA over 23 1/3 innings in four starts while Chris Sale allowed just one run over 13 innings across two victories. He held the Yankees to a .118/.220/.250 line. Mookie Betts hit a ridiculous .415/.506/.738 with 14 extra-base hits against the Pinstripers.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge batted .346/.443/.654 with five homers and Giancarlo Stanton hit .371/.423/.700 with five homers and 12 total extra-base hits. Luis Severino guided the Yankees to three wins at the Stadium.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia, Marco Hernandez, Austin Maddox and Carson Smith are out for the year. Chris Sale is healthy, but his velocity was significantly down in his last start of the year. Eduardo Nunez has dealt with knee issues for the last few seasons.

Their 2018 Season

You know the story. Boston took the league by storm this year, winning a franchise-best 108 wins. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their 876 runs led baseball — Yankees were second with 851 — while 647 runs allowed was only bested by the Astros (534), Dodgers (610), Cubs (645) and Rays (646).

Betts is the likely AL MVP after leading baseball with a .346 average, putting up a 1.078 OPS and playing a Gold Glove-caliber right field. Sale is a Cy Young favorite with a 2.11 ERA over 158 innings while racking up 237 strikeouts. The crazy thing is that J.D. Martinez had a more impressive year in some ways, nearly winning the Triple Crown.

The Lineup We Might See

Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.438/.640, 32 HR, 30 SB, 185 wRC+ (AND 10.4 WAR!!)
Andrew Benintendi, LF – .290/.366/.465, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 wRC+
J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.402/.629, 43 HR, 6 SB, 170 wRC+
Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.360/.522, 23 HR, 8 SB, 133 wRC+
Mitch Moreland, 1B – .245/.325/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 100 wRC+
Ian Kinsler, 2B – .240/.301/.380, 14 HR, 16 SB, 87 wRC+
Rafael Devers, 3B – .240/.298/.433, 21 HR, 5 SB, 90 wRC+
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .234/.314/.403, 13 HR, 17 SB, 90 wRC+
Sandy Leon, C – .177/.232/.279, 5 HR, 1 SB, 33 wRC+

The lineup won’t look quite like this in Game 1 with J.A. Happ on the mound for New York. Steve Pearce (140 wRC+, 158 wRC+ vs. LHP) will certainly play first base and Eduardo Nunez (78 wRC+, 71 wRC+ vs. LHP) could take over at third base. Pearce could also start at DH or first vs. righties and force Moreland or Bradley Jr. to the bench.

But, hot diggity dog, the top of that lineup is good. You can’t let guys like Bradley Jr. and Leon get on or else Betts, Benintendi and Martinez will make you pay.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Game 1 (Friday at 7:32 PM ET): Chris Sale vs. J.A. Happ
The stuff: He’s got a 95+ mph fastball, a wipe-out high-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. The guy has some of the best stuff in baseball when he’s on.

The questions: Health and ability to go deep in games. Sale pitched just 12 innings over four starts in September. He struck out 18 and allowed just five runs, but he didn’t look quite like himself. Perhaps that was because the games were meaningless. His fastball averaged just 90.2 mph in his final start of the year as his velocity has trickled down his last few starts. Mike broke down Sale’s disappearing velocity earlier today.

Performance vs. NYY: Outside of one bad start last September, he’s really had the Yankees’ number since coming to Boston. His seven innings of one-hit, 11-strikeout ball at the Stadium in June was perhaps the best road performance against the Bombers this year.

Game 2 (Saturday at 8:15 PM ET): David Price vs. Masahiro Tanaka
I’ll be brief on the next three starters because Domenic and Mike broke them down over the last few weeks. Here’s Dom’s preview that touched on Price recently.

The story with Price is simple: He’s a great pitcher. He’s had a strong second half. But he can’t seem to beat the Yankees’ and their right-handed power, nor has he acquitted himself well in the postseason. Both of those storylines hang over him heading into Game 2.

Game 3 (Monday at 7:40 PM ET): Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
Porcello’s had a fine, average-ish year, as Domenic pointed out last week. Like Price (and Sale), he’s struggled in the postseason historically. However, he’s been able to keep the Yankees off balance and one-hit them at Fenway in August after no-hitting them into the middle innings in April. He was unable to beat them at Yankee Stadium in one try.

Game 4 (Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET): Nathan Eovaldi vs. CC Sabathia

I can’t put it better than Mike, who broke down Eovaldi’s season and his strong numbers against the Yankees. Check out his piece!

Game 5 (Thursday at 7:40 PM ET): TBD vs. TBD
If we get this far, I’d bet on Sale starting instead of Price for obvious reasons, though Sale may be needed in relief in Game 4 like last season. On the Yankees’ end, they get to pick between whoever performed better among Tanaka and Happ in the first two games.

The Bullpen

The Red Sox will have seven relievers for this series, eight if you count Eovaldi in the early part of the series. Craig Kimbrel is the closer, mostly in one-inning stints, though the postseason will likely call for longer outings. Matt Barnes has been his primary setup man both before and since returning from the disabled list.

From there, it gets hairy. Recently, Alex Cora has turned to Steven Wright and Ryan Brasier in the middle innings. Wright especially has kept the Yankees off-balance, but the knuckleballer shouldn’t scare the Bombers.

Eduardo Rodriguez will act as the long man after missing out on the Game 4 start. Beyond him, the final two spots came down to Brandon Workman, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree with Hembree missing the cut. Kelly was dreadful down the stretch and Cora will likely loathe utilizing him in a high-leverage spot.

Tipping Points

Sale’s readiness: He’s barely pitched down the stretch and he’s arguably the most important player in this series.
Relying on the bullpen: We know the Yankees can rely on their bullpen, but will they to the extent they need to or will Aaron Boone leave his starters in too long? On the other side, can Alex Cora find a bridge between his rotation and Craig Kimbrel that doesn’t cost his team a game or the series?
Left on right: It’s not as simple as the platoon advantages, but the Red Sox are going with two lefties presumably for three of the five starts in this series while the Yankees boast the best collection of right-handed hitting talent in baseball. If Sale and Price can navigate the lineup 2-3 times through with a lead, Boston should take the series.
Mookie Betts: He’s so freaking good. Ugh.

Missing velocity has turned Chris Sale into an ALDS wild card

October 5, 2018 by Mike

When the Yankees open the ALDS later tonight, they’ll face Red Sox ace Chris Sale, who is inarguably one of the top pitchers in baseball. Sale threw 158 innings with a 2.11 ERA (1.98 FIP) and 237 strikeouts this season. He was so good he might win the AL Cy Young even while falling four innings short of qualifying for the ERA title. He was that dominant on a rate basis.

And yet, when the ALDS begins tonight, Sale will be something of an unknown for the Red Sox. Are they getting the dominant Cy Young caliber starter? Or are they getting something less than that? Shoulder inflammation sent Sale to the disabled list twice in the second half, and, while some conspiracy theorists believe the Red Sox were simply giving him rest down the stretch with a big division lead, that sure doesn’t seem to be the case.

I say that because, since returning from his second stint on the disabled list, Sale’s velocity has been down noticeably. It’s not just down. It’s down and continuing to trend down. Look at his start-by-start average velocity:

Sale’s four-seamer averaged 90.2 mph in his final regular season start last week. That’s his lowest average fastball velocity in any game in his big league career. In fact, last time out the Statcast algorithm classified a bunch of fastballs as changeups, and that’s never a good sign. There is a clear downward trend in that graph.

Furthermore, as Ben Lindbergh notes, Sale’s extension has been down as well, meaning he hasn’t been releasing the ball as close to the plate as usual. Less extension and less velocity means hitters have that much more time to react. In his final regular season start, Sale allowed three runs and needed 92 pitches to get through 4.2 innings against the post-Manny Machado Orioles. Eek.

Sale made five starts and threw only 17 innings in the final nine weeks of the regular season. That’s it. He hasn’t completed five full innings in a start since August 11th and he hasn’t completed six innings since July 27th. For what’s it worth, Sale and the Red Sox blame his recent velocity (and extension) issues on bad mechanics, not injury. From David Schoenfield:

“I was able to get off the mound a couple of times and work on that,” Sale said, “work on using my legs, driving a little bit more. Getting a little more rotational with my lower half and staying stronger with my top half. And just trying to sharpen the tools.”

Sale last started last Wednesday. He’s going into tonight’s game on eight days rest and that is completely by design. The Red Sox lined him up in such a way that he would not only get extra rest before ALDS Game One, but also enough time to throw two bullpen sessions between starts to work on things, rather than the usual one.

Here, via Lindbergh’s post, is a great clip of Sale from his final regular season start. This doesn’t look like the usual Chris Sale. That explosiveness in his delivery isn’t there. This is almost a get-me-over lob.

Was Sale holding back to protect his shoulder in a meaningless regular season start following two bouts of inflammation? Or are his mechanics that out of whack? Would it really surprise anyone if the regular explosive Chris Sale showed up on the mound tonight throwing 97-99 mph? I don’t think so.

The fact of the matter is that Chris Sale, the explosive guy who is in the running for the Cy Young every year, hasn’t been on an MLB mound since July. Shoulder woes sabotaged his August and September, and the fact his velocity has been trending down rather than up as he regains arm strength is a red flag. It is entirely possible he was playing possum and holding back. Still, if I were a Red Sox fan, I would’ve liked to have seen regular Chris Sale on the mound at some point. It didn’t happen.

Sale is tall enough to be a Yankee (listed at 6-foot-6) but he is awfully slender, and he does have a history of wearing down late in the season. September has been his worst month throughout his career. Sale’s numbers since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2012:

April: 2.67 ERA (2.84 FIP) and .255 wOBA
May: 2.59 ERA (2.57 FIP) and .238 wOBA
June: 2.60 ERA (2.47 FIP) and .252 wOBA
July: 2.47 ERA (2.47 FIP) and .274 wOBA
August: 3.37 ERA (2.99 FIP) and .286 wOBA
September: 3.84 ERA (3.84 FIP) and .327 wOBA

Sale has a history of wearing down and losing effectiveness late in the season and it’s possible that now, at age 29 with nearly 1,500 big league innings on his arm, his durability issues are showing up as something more than simple fatigue. This year he dealt with shoulder inflammation that was bad enough to require 35 total days on the disabled list, plus his fastball is missing and his extension is reduced. Hmmm.

I don’t know which Chris Sale will show up tonight. It could be the Cy Young caliber Chris Sale or it could be the diminished September version of Chris Sale. Neither would surprise me. I do know this much: If Sale is not his normal self, that is advantage Yankees. Sale is still good enough to win at 90-92 mph rather than 97-99 mph, sure, but man, this guy without his usual fastball (and extension) is a much different animal.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

October 5, 2018 by Mike

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Mailbag: Third Base, Cessa, Murphy, Myers, Opener, Frazier

October 5, 2018 by Mike

Only nine questions in the mailbag this week because, frankly, the postseason is wearing me out over at CBS. The League Division Series round is always the busiest. There are many games! Anyway, send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can.

Ben Doyle asks: I love Miguel Andujar, but what about using a third base opener in the Wild Card game? Start your favorite defensive third basemen, bat him 8th, and pinch-hit Andujar their very first at bat. Two or three innings of better defense, at the cost of slightly delaying Andujar’s plate appearances.

It’s an interesting idea. I’ve seen fans (of all teams) float similar ideas. Prior to the Wild Card Game, I saw some A’s fans suggest they should start Matt Joyce at catcher instead of Jonathan Lucroy, so in case Lucroy’s lineup spot came up in the first inning, they’d have a better hitter at the plate. Lucroy then goes in for defense in the bottom of the first regardless of whether Joyce hits. Also, in the NL, there’s talk that road teams should “start” the previous day’s starting pitcher, so if that lineup spot comes up in the top of the first you can pinch-hit without losing your actual starting pitcher. Whoever you’re planning to start that day then comes out of the bullpen for the bottom of the first.

Anyway, using a third base opener for Andujar in one specific game is an interesting idea. You couldn’t do it all the time. The problem here is roster space. The Yankees carried eight relievers and three bench players pretty much all season. Do you burn one of those three bench players for maybe two innings of defense at the start of the game? This seems like one of those things that would work much better in September or in a Wild Card Game with a deep bench. Start Neil Walker at third, then pinch-hit Miguel Andujar and get him his three at-bats, then put Adeiny Hechavarria in for defense late. Fun idea. I’m not sure how practical it is.

Greg asks: I noticed old friend Russell Martin is being paid 20 million next year the last year of his contract, while his AAV 16.4 million. If he were to be traded and cash was attached to the deal (similar to the McCann deal), could the AAV actually go into the negatives? Or does it just stop at 0.

It stops at zero. There was some confusion about this a few years ago. I don’t remember if it was the Vernon Wells trade or the Alfonso Soriano trade, but the math for one of those deals worked out in such a way that it appeared the Yankees would receive a credit against the luxury tax. It doesn’t work like that though. It just counted as zero against the luxury tax. Martin is pretty terrible nowadays. Soon-to-be 36-year-old catchers usually aren’t the most productive bunch. The Blue Jays would have to pay down a lot of his contract to get me interested. Pretty much all of it, in fact. And even then I’m not sure.

Paul asks: With strikeouts and home runs up (so fewer balls in play), and improved positioning, is defense less important than ever?

In theory, yes. There are fewer balls in play right now than ever before. This season 65.2% of all plate appearances resulted in a ball in play. Ten years ago it was 70.3%. The further back you go, the more balls in play. Fewer balls in play means fewer opportunities for the defense, so, in that sense, defense isn’t as important as it once was. That said, there are still a lot of balls in play. Also players are hitting the ball harder than ever before. They’re bigger and stronger and it shows. So there may be fewer balls in play, but the ball that are put in play are somewhat harder to defend. Defense will never not be important. It may be easier to hide a bad defender than ever before though.

Nicholas asks: What do you think Luis Cessa’s role will be next year. I believe he is out of options after this season.

Cessa will be out of options next season, meaning the Yankees can’t send him to Triple-A without putting him on waivers. Who knows, he might clear. I like Cessa more than most and, at this point, the Yankees should just stick him in short relief. One inning at a time and let him air it out. Starting and long relieving isn’t really working. Nothing that happens with Cessa this offseason would surprise me. Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets traded, or if he gets designated for assignment, or he stays with the Yankees and gets a look in Spring Training. Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, and A.J. Cole will all be out of options next season and are kinda in the same boat. Something will have to give this winter.

Eric asks: Does Daniel Murphy make sense for the Yankees as a free agent option? You sign him to play first base and if the either Torres or Andujar have a sophomore slump, you would potentially move Murphy back to one of those positions.

He might. Murphy is worth a longer discussion outside a mailbag setting and after the postseason. At this point he’s a bat-only guy. He’s been a bad defensive player for years and now he’s barely mobile after microfracture knee surgery. Murphy can hit righties (130 wRC+) but not so much lefties (51 wRC+), he can’t run, and he can’t really play defense. He’ll turn 34 in April and we’re getting dangerously close to platoon DH status here. That said, Murphy can still hit righties and he never strikes out (11.4%), so there’s some utility here. Squint your eyes and you can see some versatility. If you’re willing to live with bad defense, yes, Murphy could be a fit next season.

Geoff asks: Do you think MLB might revisit the playoff structure after this season? Both the Yanks and the A’s finished well ahead of the Indians, yet they both have to play the WC while Cleveland gets an auto bid to the DS because their division is awful. The Indians got to repeatedly beat up on the worst teams in the AL, while the yanks and As had to deal with 2 other teams in their same division of Cleveland quality or better (Rays and Red Sox; Mariners and Astros).

Nah. MLB loves the current playoff format and, personally, I love the Wild Card Game. I hate when the Yankees have to play in it, but, overall, the Wild Card Game is a blast. Is it fair? No, not really. It’s not just the Yankees and Athletics this year either. The 98-win Pirates had to play the 97-win Cubs in the 2015 NL Wild Card Game. I am pro-Wild Card Game and, ideally, MLB would reseed everyone after the regular season. Five teams in each league make the postseason and the fourth and fifth best teams get the wild card spots regardless of division. That’d be great. That gives every team a reason to keep playing hard to rack up wins. The Indians were able to coast all September because their division was so bad. The winner-take-all Wild Card Game is a ratings bonanza and it’s not going away.

Justin asks: If the Padres make Wil Myers available should NYY be interested for him at 1B? What’s a comparable trade package?

The Padres are going to trade Myers soon, I think. He belongs at first base and they just locked up Eric Hosmer to that monster contract, so the position is blocked. Also, San Diego signed Myers to an extension a few years ago and look at his annual salaries:

2019: $5.5M
2020: $22.5M
2021: $22.5M
2022: $22.5M
2013: $20M club option ($1M buyout)

Yeah, I’d bet on Myers being moved before Opening Day 2020. Myers was the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year and I feel like we still don’t know who he is as a player. He hit .253/.318/.446 (107 wRC+) this year. He hit .243/.328/.464 (107 wRC+) last year. He’s a career .253/.328/.439 (109 wRC+) hitter in over 2,600 big league plate appearances. Is that it? Myers turns 28 in December. When’s the step forward coming? Or is this as good as it gets? I’m inclined to stay away here.

David asks: If the Yankees were to utilize openers next season, who on the current roster would be best? My guess would be that Betances would be best suited, have him pitch an inning exactly every other day (or two innings every three days). That way he would never lose his rhythm and have a set schedule.

Dellin Betances did jump out to me. It’ll depend what the rest of the bullpen looks like, of course, but sending Betances out there to face the other team’s best hitters in the first inning every other day or once every three days or whatever seems pretty appealing. That said, if Dellin is the team’s best reliever again like he was this season, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to keep him away from high-leverage situations in the late innings.

Joe asks: Do you think Clint Frazier is a candidate for Arizona Fall League?

He has too much service time. My unofficial math has him at one year and 12 days of big league service time and the Arizona Fall League limit is one year. There are injury exemptions from time to time, usually for pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If Clint could get an exemption, great! I’m not sure he’s healthy though. Frazier was shut down with his latest setback on September 5th. The Arizona Fall League season begins Tuesday. I’m not sure he can go from suffering a setback and being shut down to ready for game action in a month.

J.A. Happ will start ALDS Game One tomorrow night

October 4, 2018 by Mike

As expected, the Yankees announced this afternoon that J.A. Happ will start Game One of the ALDS tomorrow night. It’ll be Happ vs. Chris Sale in a matchup of veteran lefties. Aaron Boone confirmed Masahiro Tanaka will start ALDS Game Two on Saturday night.

The Yankees did not announce their rotation beyond Game Two, but in recent days Boone indicated CC Sabathia would be in the team’s postseason rotation, so he’ll slot in somewhere. This seems likely:

Game One: Happ vs. Sale
Game Two: Tanaka vs. David Price
Game Three: Luis Severino vs. Rick Porcello
Game Four: Sabathia vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Game Five: Happ (or Tanaka on normal rest) vs. Sale (or Price on normal rest)

Happ is one of the few starting pitchers who fared well against the Red Sox this season, holding them to five earned runs in four starts and 22.2 innings. Last week he shut them down through five innings before giving up a sixth inning grand slam to Steve Pearce with the Yankees leading 8-0. The Yankees deliberated for a while over the Wild Card Game starter. Happ in Game One and potentially Game Five of the ALDS was presumably an easy call.

The Red Sox have announced their four-man ALDS rotation. It’ll be Sale, Price, Porcello, and Eovaldi in that order. The Yankees can bring Severino back for Game Three on normal rest and I imagine that’ll happen. There are three possible scenarios for Game Three: You’re up 2-0 and trying to put the series away, down 0-2 and trying to stay alive, or tied 1-1 and trying to take a 2-1 lead. I want Severino on the mound in all three situations.

The 25-man ALDS rosters do not have to be submitted to MLB until tomorrow morning and that’s when they’ll be announced. Boone said today Sabathia and Stephen Tarpley will replace Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade. That means Brett Gardner becomes the designated pinch-runner, which makes sense. I’m not sure when you’d use Tarpley over one of the usual late-inning relievers, but I guess we’ll find out.

Anyway, the Yankees and Red Sox will announce their ALDS rosters tomorrow and we’ll see how things shake out. The ALDS opens with Game One on Friday night (7pm ET) and Game Two on Saturday night (8pm). The series shifts to Yankee Stadium for Game Three on Monday (start time TBA).

To beat the Red Sox in the ALDS, the Yankees will finally have to solve Nathan Eovaldi

October 4, 2018 by Mike

While I’m sure the move was made with more than the Yankees in mind, the Red Sox acquired a pitcher at the trade deadline who matches up very well with New York. That pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi. The former Yankee was good with the Rays (4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP) and great with the BoSox (3.33 ERA and 2.88 FIP) this season despite a few of those classic Eovaldi blowups.

Eovaldi returned from his second career Tommy John surgery in May and Tampa had him emphasize his cutter, a pitch he first started throwing with the Yankees in 2016, not long before his elbow gave out. With a healthy elbow, Eovaldi started throwing a ton of cutters, and the result was much more success against right-handed batters. The quick numbers:

Eovaldi vs. RHB (2014-16): .253/.304/.378 (.299 wOBA) with 18.0 K% and 5.9 BB%
Eovaldi vs. RHB (2018): .235/.252/.381 (.268 wOBA) with 23.9 K% and 2.2 BB%

A 31-point improvement in wOBA, not to mention those strikeout and walk gains, is pretty significant. Eovaldi’s always thrown exceptionally hard. Even after his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi’s heater averaged 97.6 mph this season. His fastball was far more hittable than the velocity would lead you to believe though. The cutter gives him something to avoid the barrel.

Four times Eovaldi faced the Yankees this season and the combined result was six runs (five earned) in 23.1 innings. The Yankees hit .173/.218/.272 against him. Yuck. It’s worth looking back at those four games real quick, so let’s do that now.

June 15th: 7.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Deceptive line is deceptive. Eovaldi held the Yankees to two runs through seven innings — Giancarlo Stanton swatted a two-run home run — before Rays manager Kevin Cash pushed his luck and sent Eovaldi out for the eighth inning. Two soft singles and an intentional walk loaded the bases, then all three inherited runners scored on this:

Cash pushed Eovaldi a little too far in that game and it got out of hand late. Eovaldi held the Yankees to two runs on the Stanton homer through seven innings. Two runs in seven innings is a very good start. The three-run eighth inning makes it look like Eovaldi pitched worse than he actually did.

August 4th: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Total domination. Rick Porcello one-hit the Yankees on 86 pitches (!) the night before and the offense looked no better against Eovaldi. The Yankees did not have their A-lineup out there …

… but still, I’m not sure the A-lineup would’ve hit Eovaldi with the way he threw that afternoon.

September 18th: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Another dominant start, though not to the extent of that August 4th outing. The Yankees had Aaron Judge, they had Andrew McCutchen, and they had Gary Sanchez. It was the A-lineup and Eovaldi still shut the Yankees down across six innings. Considering he’d only thrown 83 pitches in those six innings, I reckon Eovaldi could’ve gone out for the seventh inning as well, but at this point the Red Sox were auditioning middle relievers for the postseason roster, so someone else got the ball.

September 29th: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

A meaningless start. This was a tune-up appearance in the penultimate game of the regular season and Eovaldi was very much going through the motions. And he still struck out four of the eight batters he faced. Also, Eovaldi didn’t show the Yankees the goods. He threw his lowest percentage of cutters in months in this game. The Red Sox knew they could face the Yankees in the ALDS and they didn’t reveal any secrets.

* * *

For all intents and purposes, Eovaldi made three actual starts against the Yankees this season, and he pitched very well in all three. That messy eighth inning on June 15th makes the box score line look a lot worse than how Eovaldi actually pitched. He was very good through seven innings. The August 4th and September 18th starts were dynamite. In three meaningful games against the Yankees this season, Eovaldi was as tough as it gets.

Earlier this week Red Sox manager Alex Cora told Alex Speier the ALDS plan is to use Eovaldi in relief in Game One — or at least have him available in relief for Game One — and then start him in Game Four. That’s an old school baseball move, using your fourth starter in relief on his throw day in Game One. You don’t see that often these days. That’s the plan though. Eovaldi in relief in Game One and then the starter in Game Four.

The Yankees could get dominated by Eovaldi and win the ALDS anyway. It’s possible. It just wouldn’t be easy. The Yankees have a very right-handed lineup and Eovaldi has been very good against righties this year thanks to his new cutter. No, the Yankees shouldn’t put Brett Gardner or Greg Bird in the lineup to get the platoon advantage. Stick with the righties because they’re your best hitters. It’s up to those righties to adjust and have more success against Eovaldi than they did pretty much all season.

Thanks to good health and new additions, the Yankees match up better against the Red Sox than they have all year

October 4, 2018 by Mike

For all intents and purposes, the AL East race ended in early August. The Yankees went up to Boston, got swept in four games — they were outscored 28-13 in the four games — and fell 9.5 games behind the Red Sox. That was it. The Yankees never again drew closer than six games behind Boston. The Red Sox took care of business that series and were able to coast the rest of the way.

Starting tomorrow though, the slate will be wiped clean, and the Yankees and Red Sox will go into the ALDS on a level playing field. No deficit to make up in the standings. First to three wins moves on to the ALCS. Given how close these teams usually play — even with that four-game sweep, the Red Sox only won the season series 10-9 — it would not surprise me at all if the ALDS goes the full five games.

The Yankees team going into the ALDS is much different than the Yankees team that was swept in that four-game series in August. The Yankees went into that series shorthanded. I’m not making excuses. The Yankees had enough talent to win and didn’t do it. They played terribly. But the fact of the matter is they were not at full strength. Consider:

Aaron Judge had just been placed on the disabled list with his wrist fracture.
Gary Sanchez was on the disabled list with his second groin strain.
J.A. Happ was on the disabled list with hand, foot, and mouth disease.

Given Luis Severino’s second half struggles, you could argue the Yankees went into that series without their best starting pitcher. (Chance Adams had to fill in, which he did admirably.) The Yankees definitely went into that series without their best hitter. And while Sanchez had a terrible season, he tends to rake in Fenway Park, and the Yankees were without him as well.

When the ALDS opens tomorrow night, the Yankees will have Judge and Sanchez in the lineup, and chances are Happ will be on the mound in Game One. Furthermore, Andrew McCutchen and Luke Voit will be in the lineup. McCutchen was not a Yankees when these two clubs met in August. Voit was a Yankee and he did appear in two games in that series, but he was still Luke Voit and not American Hero Luke Voit at the time.

The Red Sox have a left-handed heavy pitching staff — Chris Sale and David Price are starting Games One and Two, the club announced — and the Yankees will now have four premium righty bats in the lineup that they did not have in August. Three if you’re really down on Sanchez. McCutchen replaces Brett Gardner, Judge replaces the Neil Walker/Shane Robertson platoon, and Voit replaces Greg Bird. Considerable upgrades all around.

I should note this goes beyond platoon matchups as well. McCutchen, Judge, and Voit all mash left-handed pitchers — Sanchez does as well, he had a .229/.354/.518 (136 wRC+) line against southpaws this season — but they’re also better against righties than the guys they replaced. McCutchen’s a much better hitter than Gardner. An inferior defender? Yes, but the decline in defense is more than made up by the increase in offense. Going from Walker/Robinson and Bird to Judge and Voit is just a massive upgrade. Massive.

The Yankees will also have Happ on the mound, presumably in Game One but also possibly in Game Two. Happ is one of the few starting pitchers who consistently pitched well against the Red Sox this year. Just last week he carved them up for five innings before giving up what amounted to a garbage time grand slam to Steve Pearce in the sixth inning. Happ made four starts against Boston this year and three times he allowed no more than one earned run.

Four times in six September games the Yankees beat the Red Sox, and while that feels good, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. The BoSox had nothing on the line in any of those games, especially in that final weekend, and they never really seemed to give the Yankees (or anyone) their best effort in September. They earned that. They had a huge division lead and were able to rest their regulars and audition others for the postseason roster down the stretch.

These two teams last played a meaningful series in August, in that four-game sweep, and the team the Yankees take into the ALDS is going to look much different than the team they sent to Fenway Park in August. McCutchen and Voit are big upgrades over Gardner and Voit, Happ is healthy, Judge is healthy, and Sanchez is healthy too. Right now, the Yankees match up better against the Red Sox than they did at any other point in 2018.