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Passan: No international draft for 2014

May 31, 2013 by Mike 5 Comments

Via Jeff Passan: MLB is expected to announce they will not implement an international draft for the 2014 season later today. In fact, talks will be tabled until after the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in 2016. The owners have been pushing for a worldwide draft for years now in an effort to keep costs down, and at one point it seemed like one could be implemented as soon as this year. Thankfully, that won’t happen. This is good news for the Yankees despite their small international spending pool.

In other news, Ben Badler reports Mariano Rivera and Robinson Cano are two of more than 150 Latin American players to sign a petition against an international draft. Miguel Cabrera, Felix Hernandez, Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Gonzalez, Yadier Molina, and Carlos Beltran are among the other signatures. Molina and Beltran stand out because they’re Puerto Rican, and Puerto Rico is already included in June’s annual draft. The petition was put together by four prominent agents for Latin American amateur players during Spring Training. It was then sent to the MLBPA, which must agree to an international draft.

Filed Under: Asides, International Free Agents

5/31-6/2 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

May 31, 2013 by Mike 16 Comments

First place muscles. (Jared Wickerham/Getty)
First place muscles. (Jared Wickerham/Getty)

For the first time since the first series of the year, the Yankees and Red Sox will meet for three games in the Bronx this weekend. The two teams are separated by one game in the loss column atop the AL East — four teams are within two losses of first place, which is nuts — so this is a rather important series. Not crucial since it’s only late-May, but still important. Winning these intra-division games is the key to finishing in first place after 162 games.

What Have They Done Lately?
Boston blew out the Phillies yesterday and split four games with the Fightin’s this week. They’ve won five of their last seven and 11 of their last 16 games following an ugly 2-9 stretch. At 33-22 with a +50 run differential, the Red Sox have the best record in the AL East, second best record in the AL, and fifth best record in MLB.

Offense
New manager/old pitching coach John Farrell has one of the highest scoring offenses in baseball at his disposal, as the Sawx average 5.0 runs per game (third in MLB) with a team 107 wRC+ (fifth). They are, however, without both OF Shane Victorino (90 wRC+) and 3B Will Middlebrooks (63 wRC+), who are on the DL with hamstring and back problems, respectively. Neither will be back this weekend.

(Jim Rogash/Getty)
(Jim Rogash/Getty)

As usual, the Red Sox attack starts with 2B Dustin Pedroia (131 wRC+) and DH David Ortiz (168 wRC+). Pedroia has actually been playing with a torn ligament in his thumb all season, yet he continues to hit anyway. Leadoff man OF Jacoby Ellsbury (90 wRC+) has picked it up of late — he stole a franchise-record five bases on Thursday — while 1B Mike Napoli (118 wRC+) and the surprising OF Daniel Nava (131 wRC+) have provided more than solid support. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (110 wRC+) has been strong as well.

SS Stephen Drew (86 wRC+) has alternated between really hot and really cold all year, though OF Jonny Gomes (81 wRC+) and IF Pedro Ciriaco (88 wRC+) have been mostly cold. IF Jose Iglesias (164 wRC+ in limited time) has been playing third in place of Middlebrooks. OF/1B Mike Carp (134 wRC+) has been a weapon off the bench, backup C David Ross (90 wRC+) and OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (26 wRC+) much less so. The Red Sox are a middle of the pack team when it comes to hitting homers (57), but they rank among baseball’s best at drawing walks (10.3%) and stealing bases (41). It’s a better offense than the Yankees have, that’s for damn sure.

Starting Pitching Matchups

Friday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Jon Lester
The Red Sox were nice enough to juggle their rotation this week, squeezing in a Franklin Morales spot start so the 29-year-old Lester got to start against the Yankees instead of the Phillies. The left-baller owns a 3.34 ERA (3.25 FIP) in eleven starts this year, which is right where he was during his heyday from 2009-2010 even though his strikeout rate (7.43 K/9 and 20.1 K%) hasn’t rebounded all the way. Lester is limiting walks (2.35 BB/9 and 6.4 BB%) and homers (0.62 HR/9 and 7.9% HR/FB) though, plus he’s getting ground balls (50.0%). Three upper-80s/low-90s fastballs — two-seamer, four-seamer, cutter — set up mid-80s changeups and mid-70s curveballs, so Lester is a true five-pitch guy. But you knew that already. He beat the Yankees on Opening Day and they’ve seen him plenty over the years, both good and bad. No surprises here.

(Brian Kersey/Getty)
(Brian Kersey/Getty)

Saturday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. LHP Felix Doubront
Doubront, 25, was temporarily bounced from the rotation a few weeks ago. He’s kinda stunk, pitching to a 5.29 ERA (3.87 FIP) despite strong strikeout (9.67 K/9 and 23.6 K%) and ground ball (51.4%) rates. Doubront does walk too many (4.74 BB/9 and 11.6 BB%) and he will serve up some long balls (0.91 HR/9 and 13.2% HR/FB). A big-breaking low-to-mid-70s curveball is his moneymaker, but he’ll also throw mid-80s changeups to go with low-90s two- and four-seamers. The Yankees saw Doubront four times last year and he frustratingly shut them right down each team. Hopefully that changes.

Sunday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. TBA
The Red Sox have not yet officially announced their Sunday starter, but it is expected to be RHP Clay Buchholz. The 28-year-old is dealing with what amounts to shoulder soreness — they’re calling it AC joint soreness, but same thing, basically — but he’s thrown some bullpen sessions after having his last start skipped. He’s been excellent this year (1.73 ERA and 2.52 FIP) with dynamite peripherals: 9.04 K/9 (26.0 K%), 3.34 BB/9 (9.6 BB%), 0.25 HR/9 (3.7 % HR/9), and 48.0% grounders. Buchholz uses low-90s four-seamers and upper-80s cutters to set up his knockout low-80s changeup, which might be the best right-handed changeup in the world. He’ll also throw some upper-70s curveballs. The Yankees have seen lots of him in recent years, both the good and bad versions.

If Buchholz can’t go on Sunday, the 36-year-old RHP Ryan Dempster will start in his place. He won’t be on short rest or anything, it’ll be his regular turn thanks to the Morales spot start yesterday. Dempster hasn’t been all that good this year, pitching to a 4.45 ERA (4.40 FIP).

Bullpen Status
The Red Sox have a very good bullpen, especially in the late innings. RHP Joel Hanrahan blew out his elbow and is lost for the season, but injury-prone RHP Andrew Bailey (2.41 FIP) has been nails as closer. RHP Junichi Tazawa (3.15 FIP) and RHP Koji Uehara (3.35 FIP) have been very good in setup roles, ditto LHP Andrew Miller (2.89 FIP). LHP Craig Breslow (2.91 FIP) has been good in limited time since coming off the DL. RHP Clayton Mortensen (4.83 FIP) is the long man and in a few days Morales (6.06 FIP in one game) will be available following the spot start.

Joe Girardi’s bullpen is in decent shape, but I’m guessing Ivan Nova still needs another day or two following Wednesday’s 61-pitch outing. Mariano Rivera and David Robertson has both had the last two days off, and given the importance of the series, I’m guessing both will be available all three games this weekend if necessary. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact reliever usage. Over The Monster is the place to go for the latest and greatest on the Red Sox.

Filed Under: Series Preview Tagged With: Boston Red Sox

RAB Live Chat

May 31, 2013 by Mike Leave a Comment

Filed Under: Chats

A non-inclusive list of things George Steinbrenner hasn’t done since 2010

May 31, 2013 by Benjamin Kabak 34 Comments

Ghost Boss.
Ghost Boss.

When the Yanks completed their series to forget against the Mets last night, I knew someone would write it, and of course, Ian O’Connor drew the short straw. Keep in mind that George Steinbrenner had not been well for some time and passed away at the age of 80 in 2010. Allow me then to present a non-inclusive list of things the Boss would have done if he were still alive.

If the Boss were alive…

  • …he would not have suffered this week’s sweep silently. (Ian O’Connor, ESPN NY)
  • …he would have fired Joe Girardi had the Yanks started the season off 0-3. (John Harper, Daily News)
  • …he would have re-signed Rafael Soriano. (Lloyd Carroll, Queens Chronicle)
  • …he would have signed Josh Hamilton, Russell Martin and Eric Chavez to multi-year deals. (SB Nation)
  • …he would have fired A-Rod after the ALCS. (Mike Mazzeo, ESPN NY)
  • …he would have fired everyone after the ALCS. (Filip Bondy, Daily News)
  • …news of the Blue Jays’ off-season moves would have sent shockwaves from Tampa to the River Avenue El. (Wallace Matthews, ESPN NY)
  • …he would care only about one side of the Pineda/Montero deal working out. (Wallace Matthews, ESPN NY)
  • …he would issue an edict to sweep the Red Sox. (Kevin Kernan, New York Post)
  • …he would have been impressed with how improved the Orioles were in April of 2011. (Hal Bodley, MLB.com)
  • …he would have made Brian Cashman eat major crow over Cliff Lee’s signing with the Phillies. (Jeff Jacobs, Hartford Courant)
  • …he would have won the AL East in 2010. (Dan Shaghnessy, SI)

Perhaps it’s time to put this tired trope to bed.

Filed Under: NYC Sports Media Tagged With: George Steinbrenner

Mailbag: Outfield, Draft, Overbay, Sim. Games

May 31, 2013 by Mike 41 Comments

Got seven questions and six answers this week, so the answers aren’t crazy long. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us whatever, whenever.

Paul: Kevin Youkilis to the OF? He’s played there before (albeit only 22 games and not really recently). Any chance David Adams has been shagging fly balls during BP recently?

Oh hell no on Youkilis. Aside from what will very likely be awful defense — as you can see above, he has played left field in Yankee Stadium before, rather lolingly at that —  I’m not sure I want a 34-year-old with a history of back problems running around the outfield day after day. Stick him at third base and be done with it, no need to needlessly complicate things.

Adams has zero outfield experience as a pro and from what I can tell, he never played it in college either. I’m guessing he didn’t play it in high school as well because of the unspoken “best player plays shortstop unless he throws left-handed” rule. I haven’t seen any reports of him shagging fly balls lately — he has taken ground balls at shortstop, but that’s not unusual — so I’m guessing the Yankees don’t consider him much of an option out there. I don’t see any outfield help coming until Curtis Granderson’s pinky heals up.

Jeb asks: As unlikely as this is to happen, suppose that draft day is rather chaotic and there is a top-15 talent available for each of the Yankees’ first round picks (e.g. Ryan Stanek, Austin Meadows, etc.). Would you select each of these high-caliber guys and not worry about how to sign them, or would you perhaps take two and then go for some guys who likely would have lower demands to ensure that you can sign your top two picks?

This is very unlikely as you said, but this is where the new draft pool system would really screw a team over. The top 15 picks are all slotted at over $2.2M apiece, so those guys were expecting large bonuses. The Yankees have a touch less than $7.96M to spend this year, which probably isn’t enough to sign three top-15 guys even going super cheap with $10k senior seniors in rounds two through ten.

Given the team’s need to add impact talent to the system, I’d hope they would just blow through the draft pool number and get the three players signed. It’s an extreme circumstance and you can’t pass up a haul like that. The Yankees can spend up to $8,753,140 before forfeiting a future first round pick (that would come with a $596,805 tax) and up to $9,151,010 before forfeiting a future first and second round pick ($1,193,610 tax). If they could add three legit top-15 guys, they’d have to grab them and get them signed. It it costs a pick next year, so be it. They never have access to those guys.

Mike asks: What could the Yankees get in a trade for Lyle Overbay when Mark Teixeira returns? Who would be a potential trading partner? The draft is on my mind, what about a competitive balance pick?

Ryan asks: With Teixeira going on a rehab assignment and very close, what teams may have a need/interest in Overbay? They will likely keep him for a little bit to make sure Tex is healthy, but what might a trade look like, what kind of a return might they get?

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

Might as well lump these two together. I do think the Yankees will hold onto Overbay for at least a few weeks while they make sure Teixeira’s wrist is healthy and he’s in the clear. He’d be a bench bat/part-time starter at first and DH, basically.

As good as he’s been, Overbay is still just a 98 wRC+ first baseman who can’t hit lefties. There usually isn’t a huge market for those guys, but I could see clubs like the Marlins, Mets, Brewers, and Rockies having some interest. Obviously injuries could create more openings, and that includes the Yankees. If they could get one of those competitive balance picks — #34-39 and #69-73, and they are tradeable between now and the draft — I’d take it and run. Otherwise I think the Yankees would be lucky to get a C-prospect out of Overbay in a trade. He’s been better than expected but still below-average overall. The demand just isn’t that great.

Matt asks: Which Yankees FA from last offseason (Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, Eric Chavez) would you most like to have back, given their current performances and the injuries/general awfulness of their replacements?

All of the above? If I had to pick one, I’d go Swisher over Martin even though he plays the less important position because the Yankees really need offense and he’s the better offensive player. I think the difference between Swisher and Ichiro Suzuki is greater than the difference between Martin and Chris Stewart. Chavez has quietly been awesome by the way (153 wRC+) — he did leave yesterday’s game hurt — and I didn’t think he’d do it again. Good for him.

Michael asks: Could you write a post where you explain exactly how a simulated game “plays?” For instance, are there nine fielders? Are they playing at 100% or is it simply a way for the pitcher and hitter to do their work? Are there two discrete sides playing and changing between batting and fielding? Is the pitching coach calling balls and strikes? And so on … Thanks.

It’s glorified batting practice, basically. There’s a pitcher (with no L-screen) and usually two batters (one lefty and one righty) alternating at-bats in simulated “innings.” No fielders, and a coach will call balls and strikes and declare balls in play hits or outs or whatever. The pitcher will sit down for 15 minutes after getting three “outs” before going out for the next inning. The players are supposed to play at 100%, but you can’t truly simulate the adrenaline levels of a big league game. It’s just a way to get work in.

Bernie asks: How many wins do the Yankees have when trailing in the 7th or later and how many did they have all of last year? Has to be close?

I’ve spent more time on Baseball-Reference than I care to admit over the years, yet I always seem to be finding stats and info I didn’t know they had. Win-loss records when leading after a specific inning are one of those things I discovered within the last few weeks, so I can actually this question.

The Yankees are just 3-19 (.136) when trailing after seven innings this year, which is better than the league average winning percentage (.104). Small sample size, yadda yadda yadda. Last season they went 9-58 (.134) when trailing after seven, so a negligible difference. It’s basically the same pace. This year’s team does, however, already have more wins when trailing after eight innings (two) than last year’s team (one).

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: David Adams, Kevin Youkilis, Lyle Overbay

A win at every level (except MLB)

May 30, 2013 by Mike 20 Comments

Triple-A Scranton (5-1 win over Norfolk)

  • CF Melky Mesa: 1-5, 1 R, 3 K, 1 SB — 79 strikeouts and five walks in 50 games
  • RF Thomas Neal: 1-4, 3 E (fielding)
  • LF Zoilo Almonte: 0-3, 1 R, 1 K, 1 HBP
  • 3B Ronnie Mustelier: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 K — second homer in his last six games
  • RHP Caleb Cotham: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 9/4 GB/FB — 64 of 100 pitches were strikes … by far his best start at this level

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm

Subway Swept: Yankees drop fifth in a row

May 30, 2013 by Mike 88 Comments


Source: FanGraphs

The free-falling Yankees dropped their fifth consecutive game on Thursday night, falling to the Mets by the score of 3-1. All the magic of April’s lovable overachievers is long gone, as the Bombers have now lost seven of their last nine games. They’ve scored a whopping ten runs in their last five games. I didn’t see a single pitch of the game and I’m very happy that was the case. I got home just after ten and figured I’d get to see an inning or two, but nope.

Robinson Cano hit a solo homer in the third inning and that was it — Mets pitchers retired the next 20 batters (!) to finish off the win. Twenty in a row sat down, eleven by strikeout. Keep in mind that Dillon Gee entered this game with a 6.34 ERA (4.93 FIP) in 49.2 innings. He allowed four hits (three singles and Cano’s homer) and walked no one in 7.1 innings. Oh, speaking of walks, the Yankees haven’t drawn one since Monday, 106 plate appearances ago. The last time the Bombers went three straight games without a walk was way back in 1991, which, coincidentally, is the last time they had an offense as anemic as this one.

The only mistake Vidal Nuno made was giving up a two-run homer to the corpse of Marlon Byrd, a deficit that was far too big to overcome. Two runs in six innings is plenty good enough from the seventh starter. Shawn Kelley and Joba Chamberlain combined to strike out six of ten batters faced, which is pretty great. Joba allowed a run (charged to Kelley) on an infield single. It happens. Austin Romine’s passed ball didn’t help. Yes, I know it was scored a wild pitch, but the damn thing hit him right in the chest. He has to keep that in front of him.

I guess the good news is the schedule gets a whole lot easier now. The first place Red Sox come to town for three games this weekend, the second place Indians come for three games next week, then the Bombers go out on a ten-game West Coast trip. Piece of cake. Check out MLB.com for the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs for some more stats, and ESPN for the updated standings. The Yankees are one game in the loss column away from both first and fourth places. CC Sabathia and Jon Lester is your Friday night pitching matchup.

Filed Under: Game Stories

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