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Mailbag: A-Rod, Dice-K, Rule 5 Draft

August 31, 2012 by Mike 30 Comments

I took it a little easy this week, so I only have three questions for you. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us mailbag questions or anything else.

(Jeff Zelevansky/Getty)

Roy asks: Do you think that Alex Rodriguez will be so rusty as to be useless between now and the postseason? I expect that he will take a long time to be back in sync. Just a gut feeling.

Useless is a pretty strong word, but I am definitely concerned about his hand injury lingering and negatively impacting his production when he returns. I don’t just mean being rusty, but not having enough time to rebuild strength in the hand. It’s not at all uncommon for hand, finger, and wrist issues to linger like that even after the break is fully healed. If you can’t grip the bat properly, you’re not going to hit Major League pitching. It’s as simple as that.

For A-Rod, the concern is even greater since it’s his left (bottom) hand. The entire front arm — shoulder, wrist, hand, etc. — is where the power comes from, and that’s where the injury happened. What’s the old saying, the bottom hand is the car and the top hand is the driver? If the car isn’t working right, the driver is irrelevant. Rust and not seeing live pitching for a while is just a small part it. If A-Rod has lost too much strength in that hand during the downtime, he might be physically unable to drive the baseball with the authority when he comes back, at least initially. That’s what I’m worried about.

Chris asks: If the Yankees bring Hiroki Kuroda back next year do you think it would be worth it to try and bring in Dice-K for one year at say $4-6M? Scott Boras might want him to take a one-year show me deal and I think Kuroda might be able to get through to him.

Oh hell naw. He’s coming off the Tommy John surgery now so pretty much anything he does this year can be thrown right out the window as far as evaluating him going forward, but Daisuke Matsuzaka’s been around a while and we’re all well aware of what he is. He nibbles and avoids contact to the extreme despite having the stuff (at least pre-surgery) to challenge hitters, which results not just in walks, but also hitter’s counts. Those are the real problem, not so much all the ball fours.

Dice-K isn’t all that young anymore (32 next month) and even in his best years he was a low-4.00s FIP pitcher. He’s also been an extreme fly ball pitcher (career 36.2% grounders) and when you combine that with the walks (4.29 BB/9 and 11.00 BB%) and Yankee Stadium, you’re looking at a lot of multi-run homers. An NL team with a big park like the Dodgers, Giants, or even the Mets makes a ton more sense for Dice-K as a player, who needs to rebuild his value on a one-year deal. Staying in the AL East won’t do that, no matter how buddy-buddy he is with Kuroda. This one’s a definite no for me.

Travis asks: Who is Rule V eligible next offseason?

Marshall via Mike Ashmore.

The general rule of thumb is high schoolers drafted four years ago (2008) and college players drafted three years ago (2009). There are some exceptions, like Corban Joseph. He was a high schooler drafted in 2008 but had to be added last season because he was a little older than most kids when he graduated. Anyway, the big name this year is right-hander Brett Marshall. I’m not his biggest fan but he’s a no-brainer, you add that guy to the 40-man roster. If the Yankees leave him unprotected, he’d be a candidate to go first overall in December’s draft.

The rest of the drafted player crop is highlighted by right-handers Graham Stoneburner and Mikey O’Brien, though I don’t think the Yankees should protect either. I have a hard time believing both could stick on a big league 25-man roster all season. Adding Ryan Pope or Addison Maruszak to the 40-man would be a huge reach as well. Both are having nice years in Double-A but aren’t actual prospects. Fringe guys all the way.

It’s always tougher to tell which international free agent signees are eligible because their exact signing dates are unclear. I’m almost certain outfielder Abe Almonte is Rule 5 eligible this winter and I’m really on the fence about him. He’s been solid in Double-A while batting injury (.353 wOBA) and is a speedy, leadoff type of center fielder. Utility man Jose Pirela may be eligible as well, but I’d have no problem leaving him unprotected. He had a solid year in Double-A overall (.365 wOBA), but he was repeating the level and it was basically just a great first half.

Ultimately, I think the Yankees should only protect Marshall this offseason (among the player that I know are Rule 5 eligible). Almonte, Pirela, O’Brien, and Stoneburner may be capable of helping the Yankees down the line, but they’re unlikely to next season. There are already too many players like that on the 40-man. Sometimes the best way to keep a player is leave them unprotected like Ivan Nova in 2008. He wasn’t big league ready so it was inevitable that he was coming back. Those four are in the exact same boat for me.

Update: Left-hander Nik Turley is the obvious one I missed. He’s Rule 5 eligible as well. Turley’s had a great season (3.36 FIP in High-A) but I think he’s in the exact same situation as Nova a few years ago. Solid pitching prospect but not ready to stick on a big league roster all season. I wouldn’t protect him but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees did.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Alex Rodriguez, Brett Marshall, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rule 5 Draft

Maine leads Empire State to division title

August 30, 2012 by Mike 17 Comments

Congrats to Double-A Trenton manager Tony Franklin, who was named the Double-A Eastern League Manager of the Year today. The Thunder have the second best record in the circuit this season and are on the verge of clinching their fifth division titles in the last seven years. Earlier this week, Triple-A Empire State manager Dave Miley received the same honors in the International League.

Also, make sure you check out Mike Ashmore’s and Josh Norris’ latest chat with BP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman. He spoke briefly about the Arizona Fall League and RHP Dellin Betances’ injury. Also check out Ashmore’s chat with Brian Cashman following today’s PDC extension announcement.

Triple-A Empire State (5-0 win over Lehigh Valley) the wins clinches the division title despite playing what amounts to nothing but road games this season, so a big congrats to them … looks like they partied hard too
3B Kevin Russo & DH Ronnie Mustelier: both 2-4, 1 R — Russo tripled and struck out … Mustelier hit a solo homer
1B Kosuke Fukudome: 1-4, 1 K
SS Eduardo Nunez & C Austin Romine: both 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR — Nunez hit a two-run shot, Romine’s was solo
RF Cole Garner: 1-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI
CF Melky Mesa: 0-3, 1 K
LF Darnell McDonald: 1-3, 1 K — got picked off first
2B Ramiro Pena: 0-2, 1 BB
RHP John Maine: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 8/4 GB/FB — 65 of 96 pitches were strikes (68%) … pretty ironic that the Mets invoked their territorial rights to prevent the team from playing in Newark this year, then Maine was the guy to pitch them to the division title
RHP Cory Wade: 1 IP, zeroes, 1/0 GB/FB — nine pitches, six strikes … final appearance before coming up when rosters expand on Saturday?
RHP Ryota Igarashi: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 1/0 GB/FB — seven of 11 pitches were strikes … between him now and RHP Kevin Whelan earlier in the year, they’ve had a dominant closer all season

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm

Feliciano will make next rehab appearance with SI Yanks tomorrow

August 30, 2012 by Mike 8 Comments

Left-hander Pedro Feliciano will make his next minor league rehab appearance with the Short Season Staten Island Yankees tomorrow rather than with Double-A Trenton tonight. It had been rumored that the 36-year-old would wrap up his rehab with the Thunder today before joining the Yankees when the rosters expand on Saturday, but I guess there will be a slight delay before he’s activated.

Feliciano pitched in back-to-back games and entered a game in the middle of an inning earlier this week, both firsts as part of his rehab. It seems like they wanted to give him an extra day of rest before his next outing, and Trenton heads out on the road following tonight’s game while Staten Island will be playing in Brooklyn tomorrow. If they give him a day of rest following Friday’s appearance, Feliciano would join the big league bullpen on Sunday rather than Saturday. Not a huge deal.

Filed Under: Asides, Injuries Tagged With: Pedro Feliciano

Thursday Night Open Thread

August 30, 2012 by Mike 88 Comments

The Yankees are off today but their closest competitors are not. The Orioles already pounded former Yankees farmhand Jose Quintana this afternoon, so they remain three games back in the loss column heading into this weekend’s series in the Bronx. The Rays are four games back going into tonight’s game against the Blue Jays. I suppose the good news is that regardless of what happens this weekend, the Yankees will head to Tampa next week no worse than tied for first place. I would much appreciate that not happening, however. Win some games, please.

Here is your open thread for the evening. The Cardinals and Nationals (Garcia vs. Jackson) will be on MLB Network, but as far as I know the Jets preseason game will not be broadcast on television anywhere. They won’t score any touchdowns anyway, so there, now you know what happens. You folks know how these things work by now, so go for it.

Filed Under: Open Thread

Yankees extend PDC with Trenton Thunder through 2022

August 30, 2012 by Mike 5 Comments

The Yankees and the Trenton Thunder announced an eight-year extension of their player development contract at a press conference this afternoon. The current agreement runs through 2014, so the new deal will keep the two clubs together through 2022.

Trenton has been home to the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate since 2002, and by all indications the marriage has worked exceedingly well. The Thunder draw well at Waterfront Park and they’re nice and close for Major League rehab assignments and whatnot. Since hooking on with the Yankees, Trenton has won four division titles and two league championships in ten years. They’re in position to add to those totals this season as well.

Filed Under: Asides, Minors Tagged With: Business of Baseball, Trenton Thunder

Aardsma to appear in minor league rehab game tomorrow

August 30, 2012 by Mike 5 Comments

Right-hander David Aardsma will make a minor league rehab appearance with High-A Tampa tomorrow, he confirmed. The 30-year-old has been shut down since late-June after suffering a setback in his return from Tommy John and hip surgery. Depending on who you ask, he either will or won’t return to the big leagues this season. Alex Rodriguez will play in that game as well.

If we’ve learned anything from Joba Chamberlain this month, it’s that you can’t count on pitchers returning from elbow surgery to be productive right away. Command is usually the last thing to come back, and Aardsma wasn’t exactly Mariano Rivera in that department to begin with. The minor league regular season ends next week, though the Triple-A and Double-A affiliates have already clinched playoff spots. Any rehab assignments could continue there. If Aardsma can get healthy and actually join the bullpen when rosters expand next month, there’s really nothing for he or the team to lose.

Filed Under: Asides, Injuries Tagged With: David Aardsma

The evolution of Phil Hughes

August 30, 2012 by Eric Schultz 41 Comments

(Jeff Zelevansky/Getty)

It has been fascinating, and at times frustrating, to watch Phil Hughes develop from a prospect into a rotation mainstay.  At the time he was drafted, Hughes was a big kid who projected to have solid fastball velocity and a good slider.  Within a year or two, he developed a true plus curveball after being forced to shelve his slider, and used the hook along with impressive fastball command to carve up his minor league opposition.  His ability to develop the curveball into a dominant pitch after not using the pitch much in high school was impressive, and indicative that he had a good feel for pitching (whatever that means).

After a dominant minor league career, Hughes made his major league debut at the tender age of 20, and tantalized Yankee fans in his second start with 6 1/3 no-hit innings against the Texas Rangers.  In that outing, Hughes looked like the future ace many of us hoped he could become.  He commanded his fastball well, and made good use of his curveball and changeup to keep hitters off balance.  In particular, I remember him making future teammate Mark Teixeira look silly on several breaking balls. Then of course came the infamous, possibly career-altering injury.  After striding too far in an attempt to get a little more oomph on a curveball, Hughes badly injured his hamstring, limped off the field, and never really achieved that degree of dominance again.

The rest of Hughes’ Major League career has been consistent only in its inconsistency.  His velocity and weight fluctuated, he suffered several injuries, and otherwise struggled to fulfill his potential.  His curveball regressed, becoming a loopy creampuff instead of a snappy strikeout pitch.  The changeup didn’t really develop as hoped, leaving Hughes primarily as a two-pitch pitcher.  Consequently, Hughes faced countless long at-bats as hitters were able to sit on his fastball and foul off pitch after pitch, driving up his pitch count and tiring him out.  He also frequently pitched up in the zone, causing him to allow fly balls at a high rate.  Particularly in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, these fly balls had a high probability of turning into home runs, and this problem has plagued Phil in recent years.  He also tried to add a cutter to give left-handed batters a different look, but it never became an effective out-pitch for him.

Despite the inconsistency, Hughes has been an important fixture in the Yankee rotation over the last few years.  He has had his successes, including a sparkling stint in the bullpen in 2009, an All Star appearance in 2010, and truth be told a pretty solid 2012 (even though his FIP and xFIP are less impressive than his 4.02 ERA).  2012 has been an interesting season for him because he got off to a rocky start, giving up four or more runs in three of his first five starts.  Thereafter, Hughes has only given up more than three runs four times.  While he may have tired a bit as his innings count rose, he has been a fairly reliable piece in a rotation that suffered injuries to three starters.

It is interesting to see how Phil has tinkered with his approach throughout the season, rather than just sticking with his regular repertoire and hoping that things will fix themselves.  Michael Eder of The Yankee Analysts has some great posts (complete with gifs) documenting this transformation.  Early in the season, Hughes scrapped the ineffective cutter and began featuring the changeup more prominently.  He started making use of a sharper 11-5 curveball that featured more horizontal movement, resulting from a lower arm slot.  And just in his last start, he resurrected the mythical slider, which served as an effective weapon against same-sided batters (who have been giving Phil trouble this year).

There are certainly positive and negative spins that one could put on Hughes’ constant changes to his repertoire.  On the negative side, one could point to the inconsistency of his secondary pitches, and his inability to develop any one of them into a reliable above-average offering.  The fact that he has to keep tinkering is evidence that his regular repertoire is not good enough to be a consistently effective big league starter.  The flip side of this is that Phil is hard-working and resourceful enough to constantly add to and modify his repertoire, which gives us hope that he may continue to make adjustments in the future.

Hughes is still somewhat of an enigma, but I think at this point in his career Yankee fans know what to expect from him.  He is a solid #3-#4 starter who can eat innings, is capable of the occasional awful outing if his fly balls are leaving the yard, strike batters out at a respectable clip (about 7.5/9 this season), and keep them off base by limiting his walks.  While he is unlikely to morph into the ace we dreamed he would become, it is nice to hear that he is still working to hone his craft, and try to become the best pitcher that he possibly can.  Considering he is only under contract for one more season after this one, it will be in the Yankees’ interest to track Hughes’ evolution closely, to see if he can find a mix of pitches that will allow for more consistent effectiveness.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: Phil Hughes

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