Joel Sherman is at the BAT dinner tonight, and he ran into the Yanks’ old pal David Cone who shared some good news with The Post reporter. Coney will be returning to the YES booth for 25 games this season. We don’t yet know which member of the Yanks’ broadcast team Cone will be replacing, but my money’s on Tino taking his talents elsewhere. I’ve always enjoyed Cone’s contributions to the telecasts, and it’ll be good to hear him on the air again. I wonder if he’s finally figured out his dance yet.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan profiled Voros McCracken today, the godfather of DIPS theory (defense independent pitching stats, like FIP). McCracken is quite literally a genius, scoring 155 on a second grade IQ test that sent him directly to fourth grade and soon enough gifted classes, but these days he’s a bit of a tortured soul. He has little to show for his million dollar DIPS idea beyond a wristwatch, and he’s battled both depression and bipolar disorder. It’s a fantastic read and well worth your time, so give it a click.
Once you’ve done that, use this as your open thread for the night. The only local sports action tonight is the Rangers and Islanders, who are running out the clock before the All Star break.
Rosalinda Padilla, mother of Yankees’ bench coach Tony Peña, passed away in the Dominican Republic today, ESPN Deportes’ Enrique Rojas reported this afternoon. We don’t have further details at this time, but our condolences go out to the Peña family right now.
Via Kevin Golstein, the Yankees have signed right-hander Warner Madrigal to what we can assume is a minor league contract. The 26-year-old made his big league debut with the Rangers in Yankee Stadium back in 2008, where he surrendered Brett Gardner‘s first career hit and got tagged for six runs in just a third of an inning. His big league career features a 5.28 FIP in a measly 48.2 IP, all with Texas. Madrigal is a converted outfielder, and he missed most of 2010 with a forearm strain. His minor league career is short but stellar, featuring a 9.5 K/9 and just a 2.7 uIBB/9 in 208.2 relief innings through the years.
Baseball America ranked Madrigal as Texas’ 14th best prospect prior to 2009, noting a fastball that touched 96 and a swing-and-miss slider. The Triple-A Scranton bullpen is getting pretty crowded, so a few of these guys are going to get stuck playing in Double-A Trenton this summer. But depth is a good thing, zero complaints about a minor league deal.
Brian Cashman held court at the Hard Rock Cafe this morning, and he ended up speaking pretty candidly. He talked about a number of topics ranging from Derek Jeter to Joba Chamberlain, to the Red Sox and more. Mike and I discuss some of his statements and what implications they have on the team.
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When the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira in December of 2008, it meant two upgrades for the Yankees. The first came on offense, where Teixeira’s bat would represent an improvement over the aging Jason Giambi. In his final two Yankees seasons Giambi’s numbers dropped a bit, and he came to bat only 868 times in those two seasons. Teixeira would bring not only a superior bat, but also durability. But the most significant upgrade came on defense. Giambi was known as a statue before he even signed his $120 million contract. Teixeira was considered one of the game’s premier defensive first basemen. I can’t count the number of times I said, “I sure is nice to have a real first baseman” in 2009.
Defensive metrics did not agree with what Teixeira’s reputation, and what our eyes, told us. In 2009 Teixeira produced a 0.9 UZR, which ranked him 12th in the majors. That might not have been as ridiculous sounding had Miguel Cabrera not finished with a 3.5 UZR, fifth in the majors. Much as our eyes can deceive us, I don’t think that they deceive us to the level it would require for Cabrera to be a better defensive first baseman than Teixeira. After the 2009 season I recall a lot of ill feelings towards UZR, because of Teixeira’s situation specifically. The stats did not match what our eyes told us, and so we blamed the stats.
In 2010 UZR ranked Teixeira a bit worse. He finished with a -2.9 UZR, 14th in the majors. There might have been a number of good defensive first basemen ahead of him, but it’s doubtful that he finished more than a win worse than, for instance, Ike Davis. Maybe Teixeira isn’t the league’s best defensive first basemen, but after watching him for over 150 games in each of the last two years, and watching him frequently enough during his pre-Yankees seasons, I’m fairly confident that he ranks in the top five.
While UZR is still a widely used defensive metric, it does contain flaws. Almost all defensive metrics will, since we’re still figuring out how to best quantify defense. Perhaps the most aggressive in the pursuit of fielding knowledge is Baseball Prospectus’s Colin Wyers. He has spearheaded BP’s effort to create a more effective defensive stat, and after reading a number of his columns on the topic I see his point. With observation stats such as UZR and DRS there can exist significant range bias. Total Zone, the fielding stat used on Baseball Reference, takes the observation out and instead uses the play-by-play logs to determine defensive value. It’s here that Teixeira excels.
FanGraphs just added Total Zone (with location) data for the 2010 season, so we can see where he ranks compared to his peers. Surprisingly to UZR, but unsurprisingly to Yankees fans, Teixeira finished with a 13 TZL, which ranks him second in the majors. The only first baseman to finish better was Daric Barton, and we know he’s a top-notch first baseman. In 2009 he had a 10.1 TZL, which ranked fifth. But instead of sitting behind Miguel Cabrera (-4.4), he was behind only Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Lyle Overbay. That’s a list a bit easier to accept.
This isn’t necessarily an indictment of UZR. After all, the correlation between UZR and TZL in 2010 was .75, so they’re pretty close to one another. What it makes me wonder more than anything is why UZR views Tex so differently. Barton, for instance, led the league in both TZL and UZR. Of the players with worse than -1 UZR, all but two — Tex and Todd Helton — also had a negative TZL. What about Tex’s game causes UZR to rate him so poorly relative to what we see? I don’t have an answer, but I do hope that this sheds a little light on current defensive metrics. Maybe UZR isn’t flawed for everyone. Maybe its biases affect different players in different ways.
Runs batted in is one of baseball’s oldest and most sacred stats. It tells us how effective a player is at capitalizing on run scoring opportunities, driving in his teammates when they’re out on the bases like ducks on a pond. Except it doesn’t really do that, at least not with the proper context, anyway. It doesn’t tell us about the situation, how the runner was driven in, how many opportunities a batter has had to drive in a run, nothing. It’s a just a raw counting stat devoid of important information.
If we’re going to resort to using RBI, the best way to do so is with a rate stat, just like batting average or K/9. It’s actually pretty amazing that they used a rate stat for batting average back in the day but not for RBI. I guess it wasn’t easy to keep track of RBI opportunities back then, but it shows that the grandfathers of the sport and statistical record understand that a rate stat was the way to go. Despite that, the stat has remain unchanged for the last century.
The table on the right has RBI opportunities and conversion rate for 2010 Yankees with at least 200 plate appearances, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus. This is the number of times a player drove in one of his teammates, so it doesn’t count the times he drove himself in with a homer. The league average RBI rate among batters with at least 200 plate appearances (345 qualified hitters) was 14.3% in 2010, with a standard deviation of 2.89%. The top RBI man in baseball last year was (wait for it) Ryan Hanigan of the Reds, who drove in 23.3% of runners on base. He only had 243 plate appearances due to injury though, so if we limit it to guys that played essentially a full season, the leader was Carlos Gonzalez at 22.1%. A-Rod was third, and then you had Pedro Alvarez and Delmon Young at 20.1% and 20.0%, respectively. There’s a few players in between A-Rod and those two, but they’re all right at 200 PA.
So this data is great, it’s certainly more useful than straight up RBI, but how stable is it? Does RBI rate fluctuate wildly from year to year like BABIP tends to do, or is a repeatable skill like say, drawing walks. I suspect it’s the former, but let’s look at some more data. Here’s the current Yankees that have played full-time over the last five years…
The rates for the individual players jump around quite a bit from year to year; the smallest gap between highest and lowest percentage is Nick Swisher at 2.4%. This isn’t much of a surprise, RBI’s almost always come on balls in play, so they’re just as prone to BABIP fluctuations as batting average.
Scoring runs and driving them in are obviously quite important, but the idea of an “RBI guy” is a fallacy. The best RBI guys in the game are the best hitters, period. Driving in runs requires the same set of skills – a) not make outs and to a slightly lesser extent, b) hitting for power – as hitting with the bases empty. If you can do those things, you’ll be productive no matter what kind of situations your presented. The Yankees were an above average RBI% team in 2010, and they will be going forward because they have some really awesome hitters in the lineup.