Five biggest outs of the 2010 season

Earlier today we went back and looked at the five biggest hits of the Yankees’ season using WPA, so now we’re going to go back and look at the five biggest outs/defensive plays of the campaign. You’re not going to see the same kind of huge win probability swings just because it’s very difficult for one defensive play to increase a team’s chances of winning that much. Sometimes though, getting that one out can be a whole lot more stressful than getting that one big hit. I hate to ruin the surprise, but the greatest closer of all team will be featured prominently…

(AP Photo/Andy King)

May 26th: Mo gets Denard Span to bang into a double play
Things weren’t going so well for the Yankees in late-May. Their inaugural trip to Target Field was coming on the heels of five losses in six games, and the team was struggling to score runs. Although this game started on the 25th, it was actually completed on the 26th because of a rain-induced suspension of play in the fifth inning. The Yankees were leading one-zip on a Derek Jeter solo homer when Mariano Rivera came to the mound in the ninth. He sat down J.J. Hardy to lead off the inning, but then walked pinch hitter Jim Thome, who was immediately replaced by pinch runner Alexi Casilla. Denard Span was at the plate as the winning run, but Casilla never attempted to steal second and get himself into scoring position. Mo got Span to ground the ball to second, resulting in a game ending 4-6-3 double play. The WPA of this play was 0.22.

August 11th: Mo gets Josh Hamilton (video)
The state of Texas was not kind to the Yankees in 2010, and in fact this game took place after David Murphy’s walk-off single the night before. With the Yankees up by a run to start the ninth, Elvis Andrus gave the Rangers some hope with a leadoff triple, putting the tying run 90 feet away with the heart of the order coming up. Michael Young popped up the first pitch of his at-bat to shallow right, too shallow for Andrus to score. Texas would have still been able to tie the game by making an out at this point, and they had the eventual MVP coming to the plate. To make matters worse, Rivera fell behind Hamilton 2-0. Mo gave him his trademark cutter, but Hamilton tapped the ball back to the pitcher, again keeping Andrus anchored to third. Because it took the opportunity to score a run on an out away, the WPA swing of Hamilton’s at-bat was 0.25. Vlad Guerrero grounded out to end the game two pitches later, but Hamilton’s out was key.

May 26th: Andy gets Joe Mauer to bounce into a twin killing (video)
A few hours after Span grounded into his twin killing, Andy Pettitte got the reigning MVP to do the same. The score was tied at two in the eighth inning, but Andy was still out there since his pitch count was barely over 80 (83 to be exact). Backup catcher Drew Butera led the inning off with a double, and he then moved over to third to when Alex Rodriguez botched a Span sacrifice bunt attempt. Runners were at the corners with no outs, and the meat of Minnesota’s lineup was coming to the dish. Orlando Hudson lined a pitch back to Andy for the first out, but like I said, it was just the first out. Pettitte fell behind in the count to Mauer, putting him one ball away from a bases loaded situation. Instead, Mauer made weak contact on a slider away, resulting in a garden variety 6-4-3 double and one amazing fist pump from the old man. Mauer’s GIDP resulted in a WPA swing of 0.25.

Oh yeah, and he got an at-bat. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

June 23rd: Mariano’s Mona Lisa (video)
Okay, I confess, this isn’t just one out, it’s three consecutive outs. But they all happened in the same inning, and they each resulted in one of the highest individual defensive WPA swings of the season. I figured it was only right to lump them together, since together they represent the mastery of Mariano Rivera.

The Yankees were in Arizona and up a run in the tenth inning after Curtis Granderson‘s solo homer, but things started to get tenuous rather quickly. Stephen Drew led off the inning with a single, then ended up at third after The Justin Upton doubled. With the winning run at second and a base open, Mo intentionally walked Miguel Montero (2-for-3 in the game and 13-for-33 with five doubles and two homers in his previous eight games) to create the force at any base with still no outs. This is when the master went to work.

The first out of the inning was completely harmless as Chris Young popped up a 1-1 pitch behind the plate, with Frankie Cervelli making the catch. Adam LaRoche followed Young, and after another 1-1 count, the first baseman popped the pitch up to third base, invoking the infield fly rule. Two men down, but the bases were still loaded. Mark Reynolds ended 54.7% of his plate appearances with a walk, a homer, or a strikeout in 2010, but only two of those would have been helped him in this spot. Instead, he went with door number three. Rivera got Reynolds swinging at a pitch off the plate, stranding all three runners and preserving the win. The WPA swings were rather remarkable: 0.20 (Young), 0.27 (LaRoche), and 0.28 (Reynolds). The last two were the third and second biggest outs of the season, respectively, and they came back-to-back. Oh, and that was Mo’s second inning of work on the night. Insanity.

(AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Sept. 14th: Mo to Golson to A-Rod (video)
Despite all of his success, Mo needed a little help in making the biggest defensive play of the 2010 season. Jorge Posada had given the Yankees a one run lead with a long solo homer in the top of the tenth, but Carl Crawford led off the bottom half with a single. As expected, he stole second base but only after Evan Longoria flew out to deep center. The tying run was in scoring position, and a blown lead would have been rather demoralizing since the Yanks were coming off four straight losses and seven in their last eight games.

Matt Joyce had proven to be a thorn in New York’s side earlier in the season, and this time all he needed was a little bloop or a seeing eye single to knot things up. Rivera ran the count full, and on the sixth pitch of the encounter Joyce lifted a routine fly ball to Greg Golson in right. Crawford tagged up and once the ball settled into Golson’s glove, he took off for third. Unfortunately for him, the outfielder decided to give everyone a free look at the gun show. He threw Crawford out the third, ending the game in perhaps the most unexpected way possible. The combination of the fly out and throw out at third resulted in a WPA swing of 0.29. That throw still amazes me.

Hughes, Joba, Logan all agree to one year deals

Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees have avoided arbitration with both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. The former gets $2.7M, the latter $1.4M. I had Hughes getting around $3.5M and Joba about $1.8M, so I clearly need to sharpen my arb skills. Both players were eligible for arbitration for the first time, and they’re still pretty underpaid compared to what they’d get on the open market.

Update: Boone Logan signed for $1.2M according to Heyman. I pegged him for a $1M salary or so. Unlike Hughes and Joba, it was Logan’s second time up for arbitration, though he’s a Super Two and gets four cracks at the process.

These three plus Sergio Mitre were the only Yankees eligible for arbitration this winter. Mitre signed back in December, so it all got taken care of without a hearing(s). Good stuff.

So it has come to this: Kevin Millwood as a rotation option

Just one more pitcher. Sure, the Yanks could use two more quality arms, but at this point in the off-season they’ll have to settle for one mediocre one. The only question remaining is of which mediocre starter will fill that fifth, or even fourth, slot. In his column yesterday SI’s Jon Heyman brings up a name that we’ve heard uttered before, but until this point none of us wanted to think about him too deeply: Kevin Millwood.

A glance at Millwood’s numbers, especially the ones he produced last year in the AL East, might not inspire confidence, but remember the situation the Yankees face. As it currently stands they have fairly unattractive options for the final two spots in the rotation. Sergio Mitre is nothing more than a placeholder. Ivan Nova, though he has potential, has completed six innings just once in seven career starts. Hector Noesi, David Phelps, and the other AAA guys might present options down the road, but it would be quite the leap to start the season with them in the rotation. Considering this mess, Millwood might actually represent an upgrade.

One thing Millwood can give is innings. In five of the last six years he has made at least 31 starts. In the year he fell short he started 29. That immediately gives him a leg up on Mitre, who has topped 120 innings just once in his career. Having a pitcher at the back of the rotation who can give you six or seven innings a start, even if he’s giving up three or four runs on average, has value. It’s not ideal, especially for a first division team such as the Yankees. But at this point it’s better than someone who has pitched six innings just once in the past three years.

Of course, just because he can provide innings doesn’t mean they’ll be quality innings. Just once in the past five years has Millwood finished with an ERA below 4.50. That came in 2009 with the Rangers, and his peripherals were all well above that. It was a welcome change, of course, since his peripherals in the preceding three seasons were all considerably worse than his results. Last year he returned to 2007-2008 form. His high home run rate is also cause for concern, especially as a righty at Yankee Stadium. But there are at least a few mitigating factors.

First, pitching in Texas can absolutely kill a pitcher’s ERA. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league. Then, when he moved to the AL East last year, an injury might have made his overall season numbers look worse. At the beginning of the season he actually pitched quite well, but then he hit a rough patch that started with one game against Toronto and two against the Yankees. After this poor stretch he hit the DL with forearm soreness, and returned to pitch pretty well: 83 IP, 88 H, 41 R, 39 ER, 30 BB, 48 K, 10 HR — 4.23 ERA and 4.60 FIP. Again, they aren’t great, but they’re — wait for it — better than you’d expect from Mitre.

That’s the gold standard right now. If there is a pitcher out there who can pitch more innings and provide better results than Sergio Mitre, the Yankees have to at least kick the tires. Many of us wish that Joba Chamberlain would be the answer here, and maybe there’s still hope. If the Yankees do indeed move Joba to the rotation I wouldn’t at all advocate for Millwood. But if they don’t, then I will. It really has come to that. The Yankees need reliability and depth right now, and Millwood brings some degree of both. He’s not ideal, and I really wish I didn’t have to write this. But considering the situation, he’s far from the worst option.

Five biggest hits of the 2010 season

Ah yes, the big hit. We know one when we see it because we can quite literally feel the impact it has on the game (at least sometimes, anyway), but other times it takes a little bit more research to realize just which ones had the most impact. That’s what WPA is for, a neat little stat that tells us how much a specific event (a hit, a ground out, a stolen base, whatever) increases or decreases the team’s chances of winning. Let’s go back and re-live the five biggest hits of the Yankees’ 2010 season, just for fun…

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

May 17th: Thames walks off again Jonathan Papelbon (video)
I think that in terms of emotional highs, this was the biggest hit of the 2010 season. It was the Red Sox, Papelbon, the Yankees had a big lead and blew it before having another lead in the later innings and blowing that one, and again, it was Papelbon. Plus I was there, so maybe that’s clouding my memory. Either way, this homer was awesome and I will continue to remember it as such. There’s not much that’s more enjoyable than celebrating a win while Papelbon slowly walking back to the clubhouse with his head down.  The WPA swing on the homer: 0.43.

May 17th: A-Rod sets things up for Thames (video)
You know what’s just as exciting as beating Papelbon? Watching Alex Rodriguez hit a homer off him to tie the game a few batters before Thames ends it. The Yankees were down two at the time, which is why this homer was slightly more important in terms of WPA. It brought the Yanks back from the jaws of defeat, Marcus just polished things off. A-Rod’s homer accounted for a WPA swing of 0.46.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

May 30th: Tex goes deep for the 250th time (video)
It’s pretty amazing how many big hits we forget. This is the game when Justin Masterson came to town with like, a 6.00 ERA, then proceeded to shut the Yankees down into the seventh inning. Down three-zip, Nick Swisher singled to lead off the seventh before moving up to second on a Juan Miranda ground out. Brett Gardner beat out an infield single to put runners at the corners, but then Frankie Cervelli struck out as a pinch-hitter replacement for Chad Moeller. Derek Jeter singled into two after Gardner stole second, ending Masterson’s night.

In came lefty reliever Tony Sipp, who promptly gave up a double to Curtis Granderson, putting men at second and third. Instead of intentionally walking Mark Teixeira to set up the potential inning ending double play, they made the foolish choice of pitching to him, and six pitches later the ball flew over the leftfield wall and the Yankees went from down three to up two within the span on three batters. It was Tex’s 250th career homer and checked in at 0.48 WPA, and I still barely remember it even after seeing the video.

Sept. 17th: A-Rod turns it around against Koji Uehara (video)
As Yankees fans, we’re privy to watching a lot of great players do a lot of great things, though I think we all still marvel at some of the things A-Rod can do on a baseball field. Remember, coming into this game the Yankees were losers in eight of their last ten and had failed to score more than three runs in seven of those games. Alex put three runs on the board in one swing.

The Yanks were down by two heading into the ninth, and Jorge Posada got the rally going with a monstrous 11 pitch at-bat against Uehara before reaching on a single. Thankfully Jeter struck out instead of grounding into a double play, and Grandy moved Posada to second on a single. The rally looked dead when Tex popped up into foul territory, and it looked even deader when A-Rod took a 1-2 pitch inside for a ball that appeared to be a strike but was ruled otherwise. Uehara went back to the same pitch and tried to put in the same spot, but Alex sat back on it and hit a colossal three-run homer that gave the Yanks their first ninth inning league in what felt like eons. The WPA of this sucker? How about 0.72.

(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Sept. 8th: Swish walks off against Uehara (video)
Poor Koji. Barely a week before A-Rod broke his spirits with his homer, Swisher did the honors at Yankee Stadium. The Yanks were coming off three straight losses and were down a run to the O’s when Uehara started the ninth inning. Captain unclutch Alex Rodriguez singled to lead off the frame and was immediately replaced by pinch runner Eduardo Nunez. Robbie Cano nearly won the game on his own, sending a ball to deep center that Adam Jones corralled for out number one.

Uehara had come into this game having allowed just four earned runs total in the previous two months, a sparkling 1.44 ERA. Batters were hitting just .202/.219/.309 during the time, so getting even that one single from A-Rod to lead off the frame was a minor miracle. The Baltimore closer fell behind Swisher 2-0, prompting the Yankee rightfield to sit on a fastball. Uehara obliged and Swish delivered. I remember thinking it was a double off the bat, but it just kept carrying and eventually landed in the visitor’s bullpen for a two-run, walk-off homer. The losing streak was over and the ten game homestand ended on a high note. The WPA of Swish’s shot was a season high 0.78. That’s ginormous.

* * *

Just for fun, here’s a few other memorable hits from throughout the season…

  • June 27th: Cano homers off George Sherrill after ninth inning comeback, 0.42 WPA. (video)
  • May 26th: Swish homers off Jon Rauch to break ninth inning tie, 0.41 WPA (video)
  • July 16th: Swish’s walk-off single again Lance Cormier in the first game after George Steinbrenner‘s death, .039 WPA (video)
  • July 4th: Thames’ broken bat walk-off single against the Blue Jays, 0.39 WPA (video)
  • July 31st: Cano homers off Rafael Soriano to break ninth inning tie, 0.37 WPA (video)
  • Sept. 14th: Jorge takes Dan Wheeler to deep center in extra innings, 0.33 WPA (video)
  • April 7th: Grandy homers off Papelbon in extras, 0.32 WPA (video)

Yankees maintaining interest in Freddy Garcia

(AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Aside from making Rafael Soriano the highest paid middle reliever in baseball history, it’s been a pretty uneventful offseason for the Yankees on the pitching front. That’s bad news, because they really needed to add at least one quality starter this offseason, and so far they’ve added zero. Jon Heyman says the Yankees are still considering Freddy Garcia, who is unlikely to solve many problems, if any. This comes after we heard the Yanks reviewed the righty’s medicals last month.

Garcia, now 34, managed to throw 157 innings for the White Sox last year. His ERA (4.64), FIP (4.77), and xFIP (4.59) were all close enough to each other that we can assume he didn’t benefit or suffer from any luck, and it was the first time he managed to eclipse even 60 innings pitched since 2006. His strikeout (5.10 K/9), walk (2.29 uIBB/9), and homerun (1.32 HR/9) rates in 2010 weren’t much better than Sergio Mitre‘s (4.83, 2.67, 1.17 respectively) at all. It’s just hard to find this even remotely appetizing after watching Jeff Francis sign for half the guaranteed money the Yanks will pay Pedro Feliciano this year.

Freddy Garcia? Really? There’s no harm in reviewing medicals, but it’s been a month and they’re still considering the guy. Do the Yankees really think they’d be better off with this guy starting every five days than Joba Chamberlain? I usually expect common sense to win out in the end, but the decision-makers seem hellbent on minimizing Joba’s value as much as possible. Pffft, Freddy Garcia. If you’re going to stoop that low, just throw Hector Noesi or David Phelps out there and hope for the best.

Open Thread: Clay Bellinger

More World Series rings than Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, and Honus Wagner. Combined. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

One the best and worst things about baseball is the way we romanticize the game. It’s amazing how we end up remember events as more important than they actually were or players as being better than they were. Clay Bellinger is a perfect example, I remember him being a pretty damn good bench piece during the dynasty years. But you know what? He stunk, hitting just .194/.258/.365 in parts of three seasons with the Yankees while playing pretty much every position besides pitcher and catcher. He was also pretty old (in baseball terms). The Giants drafted Bellinger in 1989 before letting him leave as a minor league free agent, and he even made a stop in the Orioles’ minor league system before joining the Yanks. He spent two years in Triple-A before making his big league debut, and by that time he was already 30. The Yankees released Bellinger nine years ago today, and you know what? I’m still going to remember his as being awesome for no other reason than because I can.

And here’s your open thread for the evening. The Devils, Isles, Knicks, and Nets all played today already, so you’re left with no local sports tonight. I’m sure you’ll figure something out. Enjoy.

Luis Vizcaino out 3-4 months with broken ankle

Via Enrique Rojas, righty reliever Luis Vizcaino will be out for the next three-to-four months after breaking his left ankle in winter ball. No, this isn’t a flashback post from 2007, the Yankees signed The Viz to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training last month. He was always a long shot to make the club and was not much more than Triple-A depth, but now he’s an even longer shot. Add in the Rafael Soriano signing, and well it doesn’t look too good for the The Viz at all. He hasn’t pitched in the big league since ’09 and hasn’t been effective since leaving the Yankees after that ’07 season.