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Gleyber Torres and the ability to make on the fly adjustments

April 25, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Gleyber Torres era is now three games old. The Yankees are undefeated and have outscored their opponents 27-5 in those three games and that’s awesome, but it’s not because of Torres. Not entirely, anyway. Gleyber is 3-for-12 (.250) with three singles in the early going. A nice and clean .250/.250/.250 batting line.

At 21 years and 133 days, Torres is currently the third youngest player in the big leagues, older than only Ozzie Albies (21 years, 109 days) and the just called up Ronald Acuna (20 years, 128 days). It takes a special talent to reach the big leagues at that age, and remember, if not for the elbow injury, there’s a good chance Gleyber would’ve debuted as a 20-year-old at some point last season.

Torres is a highly regarded prospect not only because of his physical gifts. He’s long been considered a very cerebral and instinctual player who is baseball wise beyond his years. Baseball America (subs. req’d) touted Gleyber’s ability to make adjustments this past offseason, when they ranked him the sixth best prospect in baseball. From their scouting report:

In particular, Torres’ ability to make quick adjustments set him apart from other high-pedigree prospects. Coaches noted how quickly he would identify the way pitchers were working to get him out, then adjust and close those holes.

MLB.com’s scouting report backs that up, saying Torres is an “advanced hitter for his age” who “makes adjustments easily.” Some guys hit a ball 500 feet and others run like the wind. Torres is more of a well-rounded prospect who does everything well but nothing spectacularly, and makes quick adjustments to eliminate weaknesses.

“I think that’s part of the hype around him, is the makeup of it,” said Aaron Boone to Dan Martin after last night’s game. “He’s a slow heartbeat, special between the ears kind of guy.”

Gleyber showed his ability to make adjustments in his first MLB game. His first two at-bats. Torres came out like a nervous kid swinging hard in his first at-bat, and the veteran battery of Jaime Garcia and Russell Martin picked him apart with pitches down and in. Torres struck out for the first (and thus far only) time in his MLB career.

In his next at-bat, Garcia and Martin went down and in again because hey, why not? Let the rookie show he can handle that pitch before changing it up. Torres took two down and in pitches for balls, forcing Garcia and Martin to attack him another way. Gleyber didn’t reach base, but the adjustment was there. He wouldn’t get beat by the down and in pitch again.

Last night, that ability to make quick adjustments was on full display in the fourth inning, when Torres singled back up the middle against Jose Berrios for his first career run batted in. Berrios fell behind in the count 3-0 and got it to 3-1 with a get-me-over fastball. Gleyber swung out of his shoes at the 3-1 pitch. Look at this:

That was not a “let’s serve the ball the other way to get the run in” swing. Torres was trying to hit that ball to the moon. Not a bad idea! Against an unproven rookie, you’d expect a guy like Berrios to go with a 3-1 fastball, and he threw a 92.5 mph heater right by Torres. Right by him. Torres was late. The fastball beat him, plain and simple.

As the old saying goes, if you throw it 3-1 you might as well throw it 3-2, and Berrios did exactly that. He went right after Torres with another heater in the 3-2 count, that one at 93.6 mph and a little lower in the zone. Gleyber wasn’t having any of it. The RBI swing:

The leg kick is gone and Torres keeps his head on the ball rather than flying open wildly like he did on the 3-1 swing. Berrios beat him with the 3-1 fastball, Gleyber knew it, so he shortened up and got as direct to the baseball as possible, and he was rewarded with a single up the middle. Beautiful.

Remember, this is a 21-year-old kid we’re talking about. A 21-year-old kid in his third big league game against an excellent pitcher. Torres made the mid-at-bat adjustment that, frankly, lots of veterans are unable to make. That’s not a knock on them. Baseball is ridiculously hard. Some guys make it look easier than others, and Gleyber has already shown us he has a pretty good idea at the plate.

As he matures and gains experience, Torres is going to destroy pitches like that 3-1 fastball. The mid-at-bat adjustment is cool and all, but that 3-1 fastball was the pitch to hit. Middle-middle at 92.5 mph? You work the count to get a pitch like that. Gleyber missed it, so he made the adjustment and didn’t miss the 3-2 fastball. In time, he won’t miss pitches like that 3-1 heater.

There will be growing pains with Torres. It’s inevitable. Even the most talented players need some time to find their footing in the show. That’s part of the process of turning a prospect into a big leaguer, and Torres has started that process. The good news is the Yankees don’t need him to be a major factor right now. They can let Torres develop at his own pace. And given his baseball aptitude and ability to adjust on the fly, Gleyber’s learning curve may not be as steep as it is with most kids his age.

Stanton’s possible new short porch friendly approach

April 25, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Twenty-two games into the new season, Giancarlo Stanton has yet to provide the Yankees will the kind of impact expected from the reigning NL MVP. Granted, he is hitting .213/.307/.438 (105 wRC+), so it’s not Stanton has been completely useless. He just hasn’t been an MVP caliber performer to date. It’s early. Give him some time to get comfortable and he’ll mash.

Last year Stanton made a noticeable in-season adjustment and closed up his batting stance, allowing him to better reach the outside pitch. That closed stance remains this year. Stanton now appears to be making another adjustment, and it’s a common one for new Yankees: He’s taking aim at Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch.

Stanton, a right-handed hitter, is hitting the ball to the opposite field far more often this year than he has in the past. Here are his pull and opposite field rates going into last night’s game:

Giancarlo’s home run Monday night was yanked to left field, sure, but he also had two opposite field singles in the game. His two Opening Day homers were hit to the right field side of center field, remember. So far this season Stanton has four opposite field hits. He had 17 all of last year, 13 the year before that, and five (!) the year before that.

This opposite field approach didn’t come out of nowhere and the regular season isn’t the first time we’re seeing it. Stanton worked on shooting the ball to the other way all throughout Spring Training. Remember all those rockets he banged off the right field wall during Grapefruit League play? Many on hilarious low-effort swings?

“My usual approach to batting practice,” said Stanton to John Harper in February, throwing some cold water on the idea that he was gearing up for the short porch during Spring Training. “I just hit the ball to right, make sure I get backspin, stay inside the ball, see how I feel. I let it go when I need, get ready for the game.”

Usual approach or not, Stanton is hitting the ball the other more often this season than he has in the past. His highest single month opposite field rate last season was 27.4% in May. No other month was over 20.3%. Here are Stanton’s best opposite field months among his 31 months with at least 90 plate appearances:

May 2014: 30.3%
March/April 2018: 30.2%
May 2017: 27.4%
June 2016: 27.1%
June 2012: 27.0%

There are still six games to be played this month, so that 30.2% opposite field rate can come down in a hurry. Right now though, Stanton is on track to have only his second career month with at least 30% of batted balls going the other way, and his first since way back in 2014. Coincidence? Possibly! Given the inherent advantage of going the other way as a right-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium, there might be more to this than sample size noise.

If Stanton is consciously trying to hit the ball to the opposite field — and again, he might not be — is it a good idea? Does he need to change his approach? Stanton has had a ton of success as a pull hitter, and it’s not like he’s short on power. He can hit the ball out of any ballpark. Being a pull hitter — Stanton’s 43.4% pull rate from 2010-17 ranked 119th among 467 qualified hitters, so he’s not an extreme pull hitter — has worked for him, so why fix what isn’t broken?

To me, this is similar to the batting stance change last year. It’s all about getting better. The Yankee Stadium short porch turns fly balls that are routine outs elsewhere into home runs. If Stanton is able to better use the opposite field to take advantage of the short porch without ruining what he does best — ferociously pull the ball — great! I applaud him for trying. Every stadium is unique and hitters (and pitchers) are smart to tailor their game to their home ballpark.

Now, if the opposite field approach doesn’t work — we’re still a long way from knowing that, I’d say — going back may not be so easy. Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann became enamored with the short porch and it cost them production. It doesn’t seem like the short porch could hamper a right-handed hitter the same way we’ve seen it hamper a left-handed hitter, but who knows? What if Stanton turns into an opposite field singles hitter? Oy vey.

The 2018 season is still young and we’ll see how Giancarlo approaches his at-bats in the coming weeks and month. If the opposite field approach continues, it’ll be a pretty good indication he’s doing this on purpose. If not, well, either it was a fluke month or something Stanton abandoned early. Stanton doesn’t need the short porch to hit for power. But, if he figures out how to use it without hurting his ability to pull the ball, the Yankees will be that much more dangerous.

Yankees 8, Twins 3: Sanchez and Didi power Yankees to fourth straight win

April 24, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Four straight wins and eight wins in the last eleven games for the New York Baseball Yankees. They beat the Twins 8-3 on Tuesday night and improved their run differential to +31, fourth best in baseball. That was quick. In my version of The Good Place, the Yankees play the Twins 162 times.

Burying Berrios
Over the last five games opposing starters are averaging 4.87 innings and 97.2 pitches against the Yankees. It’s 4.81 innings and 94.4 pitches over the last nine games. Aaron Sanchez is the only starter to complete six innings against the Yankees in those last nine games and he went exactly six. This lineup just wears pitchers down, man. Jose Berrios as been as good as anyone in baseball this season, and he went four innings on 93 pitches Tuesday. Geez.

Gary Sanchez got the Yankees on the board with a second inning solo homer — Berrios caught way too much of the plate with an 0-1 fastball and Sanchez parked it in the right field seats — then the Yankees really went to work in the third inning. Brett Gardner worked a one-out walk, Aaron Judge doubled on a 3-1 fastball — Berrios struck Judge out on the same fastball in his previous at-bat, but he didn’t get it by him again — and Didi Gregorius poked a single the other way to score Gardner for a 2-1 lead.

The fourth inning rally started with a strikeout. Neil Walker swung over top of an admittedly nasty breaking ball, it went to the backstop, and he reached first base. Miguel Andujar hit a weak tapper in front of the plate that catcher Mitch Garver bobbled, allowing Andujar to reach. Two should’ve been outs turned into baserunners. Gleyber Torres cashed one of those runners in with a single up the middle. Gleyber swung out of his shoes at the 3-1 pitch, missed, then cut down his swing and knocked a single up the middle. Hooray.

Even though he’d thrown 87 pitches in the first four innings, Twins manager Paul Molitor sent Berrios back out for the fifth, and it did not go well. Judge ripped an infield-ish single that pretty much only he can hit. It left his bat at 110.9 mph. Brian Dozier couldn’t handle it and Judge reached. A mere mortal wouldn’t have hit the ball that hard and Dozier probably makes the play. Gregorius sent the next pitch into the right field seats for a 5-1 lead.

Eight homers in 22 games for Sir Didi this season. Last year he hit his eighth homer in his 47th game. Incredible. Gregorius went 3-for-4 with the homer and is hitting .347/.442/.787 (215 wRC+) with 27 runs driven in through 22 games this season. Amazing. Maybe now they’ll spell his name correctly the bat day advertisement. Berrios, meanwhile, was charged with five runs in four innings plus two batters. He went into Tuesday’s game with a 1.63 ERA (1.77 FIP) and left with a 2.56 ERA (2.51 FIP).

Carsten Charles In Charge
Things are going so well right now the Yankees even got six full innings from CC Sabathia. That doesn’t happen nearly as often as it used to. Sabathia allowed one run in his six innings and it came in the first inning, and it wasn’t entirely his fault. He did walk Miguel Sano with two outs, and he did allow a hard-hit ball to Eduardo Escobar, but Judge misplayed the carom off the wall, allowing Sano to score. A clean play by Judge and Sano holds at third, and who knows what happens after that.

After the Escobar double Sabathia retired 15 of the final 17 batters he faced, and one of those two baserunners reached on an error. (Walker bobbled a grounder.) Only three of those 17 batters hit the ball out of the infield. Sabathia’s final line: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K on 82 pitches. He allowed an average exit velocity of 78.0 mph and not a single batted ball over 89 mph. That is pretty, pretty good. Sabathia is an excellent contact manager at this point of his career. Quite a transformation for CC.

A Late Scare, Then Late Runs
With the lineup set to turn over a third time, Aaron Boone replaced Sabathia after six innings, and I was totally cool with it. Sabathia’s numbers the third time through the order are horrible and I’d rather get him out of there too soon rather than too late. How many times did Joe Girardi get burned by trying to squeeze a few extra outs from Sabathia the last two years? More than I care to count. I was fine with the six and fly approach.

The problem is Bad Dellin showed up. Dellin Betances took over in the seventh inning, walked the leadoff man, threw away a pickoff attempt, then allowed a run-scoring single to Garver. That cut the lead to 5-2. Garver took too big a turn around first and Sanchez made a good throw to get him, but Torres just missed it. Took his eye off the ball. Bad pitching, bad defense. David Robertson had to bail Betances out. Dellin’s either being really good or really bad this year. No middle ground.

Thankfully the Yankees did not stop scoring. Judge hit a solo homer to right field in the bottom of the seventh and Sanchez clobbered a two-run home run off the windows in center field. It was a missile. If exit velocity wasn’t a thing, I’d guess it was Gary’s hardest hit ball of the season. (It is tied for his second hardest at 114.2 mph.) The Yankees led 5-1, the Twins put a little scare into them in the seventh, so the Yankees added three more runs. Perfect.

Leftovers
The Yankees did not commit an error in any of their previous four games, but geez, they made up for it in this one. Four errors in the game. Judge bobbled Escobar’s double, Walker bobbled the grounder, Betances threw away a pickoff throw, and Torres missed the throw at first. Also, Gardner and Aaron Hicks had a little miscommunication in left-center field and let a catchable ball drop in for a double. Ugly. Ugly ugly ugly.

Three hits for Judge, three hits for Didi, two hits for Sanchez, two hits for Torres, no hits for anyone else. Hicks drew two walks and Gardner drew one though, so that’s good. Andujar’s extra-base hit streak came to an end at seven games. He struck out twice. Giancarlo Stanton went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and was, of course, booed even though the Yankees are pretty rad right now. The booing has officially jumped the shark.

Sanchez’s two homers give the Yankees seven — seven! — multi-homer games on the season already. Ten teams still don’t have one player with a multi-homer game this season. The Yankees have more players with a multi-homer game this season than the Pirates (five) and Giants (two) did all last year. Geez. The Yankees have hit four homers in back-to-back games. They’ve never done it in three straight games. There’s the goal for Wednesday.

Chasen Shreve and Jonathan Holder closed things out after Robertson’s escape job and the late tack on runs. Shreve allowed a run after Gardner and Hicks let that catchable fly ball drop between them. Holder struck out two in a perfect ninth to get his ERA into single-digits. It’s at 9.53.

And finally, it appears the Didi-Gleyber dance is officially a thing. Here they are after the final out:

Do we love this team yet? I sure do.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standing
Head over to ESPN for the box score, MLB for the video highlights, and ESPN for the updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees and Twins are halfway through this four-game series. They’ll play the third game Wednesday night, weather permitting. It’s going to rain pretty much all day, but it’s supposed to clear up in time for the game. We’ll see. Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray are the scheduled starting pitchers. I get the sense runs will be scored.

DotF: Lind makes season debut in Tampa’s win

April 24, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Couple stories worth checking out: Randy Miller’s Q&A with RHP Dillon Tate, Miller on RHP Erik Swanson, and Kirsten Karbach on RHP Jonathan Loaisiga. Loaisiga’s goal this season? “Just stay healthy,” he told Karbach.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-2 loss to Columbus)

SS Tyler Wade: 2-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 SB — here’s video of the double and single, which are good reminders the stat line can be misleading
DH Abi Avelino: 1-5, 1 R, 1 K
1B Mike Ford: 1-5, 1 K
C Kyle Higashioka: 2-4, 1 RBI, 1 PB
LHP Kyle Bollinger: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 7/2 GB/FB — 50 of 81 pitches were strikes (62%) … first game in affiliated ball since 2013 for the well-traveled 27-year-old, who spent last season pitching in Germany
RHP J.P. Feyereisen: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 1 K, 0/2 GB/FB — 23 of 45 pitches were strikes (51%) … 6/7 K/BB in 9.2 innings

[Read more…]

Game 22: Looking For A Fourth Straight Win

April 24, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees are in the middle of their best stretch of the young season. They’ve won their last three games — the Yankees have held their opponents to one run in all three games — and seven of their last ten games overall. Thanks to this stretch, the Yankees now lead baseball in runs per game (6.05) and are merely 19th in runs allowed per game (4.81). That’s a heck of a lot better than where they were a week ago at this time.

Tonight the Yankees will get a look at one of the best young pitchers in baseball in Jose Berrios. He’s sitting on a 1.63 ERA (1.77 FIP) and is tied for second in fWAR and tied for fourth in bWAR. The Yankees worked Berrios hard last year — he allowed six runs and threw 149 pitches in 6.1 innings at Yankee Stadium in 2017 (two appearances) — but last season is last season. Hopefully they have the same kind of success against him tonight. Here are the starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Didi Gregorius
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. CF Aaron Hicks
7. 1B Neil Walker
8. 3B Miguel Andujar
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

LHP CC Sabathia

Minnesota Twins
1. 2B Brian Dozier
2. RF Max Kepler
3. DH Miguel Sano
4. 3B Eduardo Escobar
5. LF Eddie Rosario
6. C Mitch Garver
7. 1B Logan Morrison
8. SS Ehire Adrianza
9. CF Ryan LaMarre

RHP Jose Berrios

Cloudy, cool, and windy in New York this evening, and there is some rain in the forecast later tonight. The internet tells me the heaviest stuff isn’t due to arrive until after midnight, so things should be fine for the game. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out of market. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates: Greg Bird (ankle) is heading to Tampa on Friday to continue his rehab work. He’s making good progress so far … Brandon Drury (migraines) will play seven innings at third base with Triple-A Scranton tomorrow, rest Thursday, then play a full nine innings Friday. It’s possible he could rejoin the Yankees after that, if all goes well … Tommy Kahnle (shoulder, biceps) is still doing rehab work. He’s yet to resume throwing. Kahnle was placed on the disabled list April 17th and the Yankees said he would be shut down ten days, so nothing’s changed, really.

Roster Move: So long, Jace Peterson. He was claimed off waivers by the Orioles earlier today, the Yankees announced. Peterson went 3-for-10 with a walk in pinstripes. Could’ve been worse.

The good and bad of Dellin Betances so far in 2018

April 24, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Coming into this new season Dellin Betances was the biggest unknown on the Yankees’ roster. He struggled throwing strikes late last year and it rendered him unusable in anything other than an emergency in the postseason, and no one really knew what to expect in 2018. Would he fix himself like he did after late struggles in 2016 and 2017? Or continue to have problems?

Through 21 team games the answer is … kind of both? Betances has had some good outings and bad outings, with the bad outings leaving a bigger dent in his season numbers. So far Dellin has a 6.23 ERA (5.26 FIP) with 15 strikeouts in 8.2 innings. To me, Betances does appear more comfortable and in control on the mound. There were times late last season he looked completely lost. I haven’t seen that yet this year.

In those 8.2 innings there are good signs and bad signs. Reasons to believe Betances will be just fine — better than fine, really, since it’s not like he was a generic middle reliever from 2014-16 — and reasons to believe more trouble is on the way. Four things stand out to me so far.

The Good: He’s throwing strikes

Betances has only walked three of the 38 batters he’s faced so far this season (7.9%) and he’s yet to hit a batter — Dellin hit eleven batters last season, seventh most in baseball behind six starters — so he’s been around the plate more often. It’s appeared that way to me watching the games and the numbers bear that out.

	2016 Zone %	2017 Zone %	2018 Zone %
Fastball	51.9%	48.7%	58.3%
Breaking Ball	43.3%	44.9%	48.5%
Overall	47.0%	46.7%	51.6%

Throwing only 51.6% of your pitches in the strike zone sounds crummy, but the league average is only 47.7% this year, so it’s really not. (Last year the league average zone rate was 47.3%.)

It’s early. We’re only talking about 8.2 innings worth of pitches right now. So far though Betances has been more around the plate with both his fastball and breaking ball, and that was his big problem late last season. He didn’t have command problems last season. He had basic strike-throwing problems. Forget painting the corners. Dellin couldn’t throw the ball over the plate. He’s done a better job of it in the early going this year.

The Bad: He’s been homer prone

Betances has allowed three home runs in his 8.2 innings this year. He allowed three home runs in 63.2 innings last year, including the postseason. Now he’s allowed three in 8.2 innings this year. Hmmm. Here’s the weird thing: Betances has allowed three fly balls all season. All three have gone over the fence. HMMM.

Here are the three home run pitch locations and their game situations:

(Yes, I know Candelario is on the Tigers. I forgot to change TOR to DET before uploading the image and I don’t feel like putting it together again. My bad.)

Three fastballs out over the plate, two when the hitter was ahead in the count, and two that had no real impact on the outcome of the game. All three to the first batter of the inning too. After the Pillar homer Betances said he was “ambushed … just trying to groove one in there, and I didn’t think he would swing.” He retired the next three batters, so no harm no foul.

The three homers — the only three fly balls Betances has allowed this season — had a combined exit velocity of 108.4 mph, which is a good little poke. Last year Dellin allowed an average 89.5 mph exit velocity on fly balls and only two individual fly balls with an exit velocity over 100 mph. This year he’s already allowed three.

I’m not sure what to think about the home runs. We’re talking about three pitches here, and no, Betances won’t carry a 100.0% HR/FB rate all year. At the same time, is there something beyond general baseball randomness that explains the uptick in hard hit fly balls? Given that we’re talking about 8.2 innings here, I’m going to stamp this as “need to see more” before making any conclusions.

The Good: He’s getting swings and misses

Fifteen strikeouts in 8.2 innings is both excellent and not an out of the ordinary number for Betances. He has a 39.5% strikeout rate this year. It was 38.3% last year. The year before it was 42.1%. The year before that is was 39.5% and the year before that it was 39.6%. The strikeout rate is regular old Dellin and that’s a good thing. He’s still missing plenty of bats. The numbers:

	2016 Swing % (Whiff %)	2017 Swing % (Whiff %)	2018 Swing% (Whiff %)
Fastball	47.3% (31.8%)	38.0% (33.0%)	41.7% (24.0%)
Breaking Ball	38.0% (50.2%)	31.6% (43.6%)	34.3% (50.0%)
Overall	42.0% (41.1%)	34.5% (38.2%)	37.1% (38.9%)

The swing-and-miss ability is still there in the early going. That’s good. Even after only 8.2 innings, I’d be pretty worried if any pitcher suddenly lost his ability to get swings and misses when his entire game is built around getting swings and misses. Betances is still generating empty swings like few others. He’s throwing more pitches in the zone too, remember. Pitches in the zone are easier to hit, yet his swing-and-miss hasn’t suffered. Good news.

The Bad: His fastball spin rate is down

For all the talk about Dellin’s velocity being down this year, his fastball is averaging 97.2 mph and it’s topped out at 99.7 mph. Last April he averaged 97.4 mph and topped out at 99.2 mph. The year before it was 97.2 mph and 100.0 mph, respectively. The velocity is right where it always is this time of year. Betances tends to reach his peak velocity in the summer months like most pitchers. We’ll see more 99s and 100s in a few weeks.

Spin rate is another matter though. Dellin has had a truly elite fastball throughout his career because he combines big velocity with a high spin rate. The more spin, the more “life” on the pitch, and the harder it is to square up. Here are his fastball spin rates:

	April Spin Rate	Full Season Spin Rate
2015	2,402	2,402
2016	2,497	2,505
2017	2,557	2,430
2018	2,294	N/A

The league average fastball spin rate has hovered right around 2,200 rpm since Statcast became a thing in 2015, and from 2015-17, Betances was well above that mark. So far this year his fastball has been essentially league average.

In 2015 and 2016, Dellin’s fastball spin rate in April basically matched his overall season spin rate. Last year though, there was a big decline, and that’s a red flag. Here are the month-by-month numbers:

April: 2,557 rpm
May: 2,512 rpm
June: 2,415 rpm
July: 2,406 rpm
August: 2,381 rpm
September: 2,354 rpm

Well that doesn’t look good. The spin rate on Betances’ fastball has declined every month since last April and the trend has continued this year. A low spin rate isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Low spin is conducive to ground balls. You don’t want to be league average though, where Dellin sits right now. You either want high spin (swings and misses) or low spin (grounders). Nothing in the middle.

Betances is 30 years old now with over 1,000 innings on his arm, plus he had some arm problems earlier in his career, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2009. The drop in spin could simply be a wear-and-tear thing. Or it could be a mechanical issue. I’m not sure. The drop in spin could explain the homers — again, all three came on heaters — though it’s still so early. The spin rate issue is definitely a #thingtowatch going forward.

* * *

Late last season Betances was untrustworthy because he couldn’t throw strikes. It wasn’t a command issue. It was a basic strike-throwing issue. He couldn’t get the ball over the plate all. This year Betances has been around the zone more often in the early going, and he’s still getting plenty of swings and misses. His spin rate is down though, and for whatever reason he’s been homer prone. Four weeks into the season, red flags still exist with Dellin, but there are some positives too.

Sounds like Patrick Corbin wants to be a Yankee, but he won’t help them in 2018

April 24, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the winter the Yankees looked high and low for pitching help, and since they came up empty, the pitching search will continue in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline. The search for pitching never ends, really. The pitching has been great the last few days and the rotation still has a 4.30 ERA (3.96 FIP). There’s room for improvement for sure.

Among the pitchers the Yankees reportedly pursued this offseason was Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin, an impending free agent who owns a 1.89 ERA (1.99 FIP) with a 39.3% strikeout rate in five starts and 33.1 innings so far this year. He’s been awesome. The D’Backs gave Corbin the Opening Day nod over Zack Greinke and he’s pitched like an ace.

The 28-year-old Corbin is a native New Yorker from up near Syracuse, and during a recent chat with Bob Nightengale, he sure made it sound like he’d welcome a chance to pitch for the Yankees. From Nightengale:

“It would definitely be great to play there,” Corbin says. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans.

…

“I know the Yankees have had some interest in the past, and there were a lot of rumors this winter that got my family excited,” Corbin says. “It would have been cool. You just want to go where you’re wanted, and every team will have an opportunity.

Corbin added the obligatory “I want to play for a contender” and “I’m just focusing on this season” comments as well. The D’Backs have not yet approached him about a contract extension according to Nightengale, though I’m sure that’ll happen at some point this summer. Point is, a very good pitcher said some things that could indicate he wants to play for the Yankees, and that’s worth discussing. Let’s talk this out.

1. Corbin’s breakout started last year. It actually started back in 2013, when he was an All-Star and threw 208.1 innings with a 3.41 ERA (3.43 FIP). His elbow gave out the following Spring Training and he needed Tommy John surgery, and it took him some time to get back up to speed. Last season Corbin was mediocre in the first half (4.71 ERA and 4.25 FIP) and much better in the second half (3.27 ERA and 3.87 FIP). That second half success has carried over to this season.

Corbin told Nightengale he has been tinkering with his trademark slider — “I don’t think I’ve seen a slider like that since Steve Carlton. I mean, it just disappears,” said Giants assistant hitting coach Rick Schu to Nightengale — mostly by varying the shape and velocity. He’s also throwing it much more often. Look at this:

I doubt Corbin is a true talent sub-2.00 ERA/sub-2.00 FIP pitcher like he has been this year. But he’s been a successful big league pitcher, and it’s not crazy to think a 28-year-old who has learned some new tricks with his slider may’ve taken his game to the next level. Lefties who can get strikeouts (21.7% from 2016-18) and grounders (52.1% from 2016-18) fit well in Yankee Stadium.

2. It’s cool he’s a Yankees fan. But who cares? This is one of the most overplayed talking points. Unless Corbin is willing to take a discount to come to the Yankees — who’s the last player to take a discount to sign with his childhood team? — the fact he grew up a Yankees fan is meaningless. Gerrit Cole grew up a Yankees fan too, they threw gobs of money at him, and he still didn’t sign with them out of the draft.

If Corbin signs with the Yankees as a free agent after the season, it’ll be because they make a strong competitive offer, and because Corbin believes they’re the best fit for him and his family. That’s it. He’s not going to make an eight-figure (nine-figure?) life decision based on his childhood rooting interests. As far as I’m concerned, Corbin growing up a Yankees fan means nothing. The Yankees can’t proceed as if it gives them some sort of free agent advantage.

3. A midseason trade is extremely unlikely. Why? Because the D’Backs are good and Corbin is their best pitcher. Arizona sits in first place in the NL West at 15-6 and they went to the postseason last year, remember. They were on a 101-win pace even before the J.D. Martinez trade. Maybe outlasting the Dodgers all season won’t happen. But the D’Backs are very good and there is every reason to believe they will be in the postseason race all season.

It would take a collapse — or an offer they can’t refuse — for the D’Backs to consider trading Corbin at the deadline. In fact, in the wake of the Taijuan Walker injury, Arizona is more more likely to add pitching at midseason than subtract it. Corbin’s been great and he would be a very welcome addition to the Yankees. It just doesn’t seem all that realistic that he’ll be made available at the trade deadline. The D’Backs are trying to win too. This is a conversation we’ll have to revisit in the offseason, assuming Corbin becomes a free agent and doesn’t sign an extension.