River Avenue Blues

How do the Yankees keep their moves quiet?

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We enjoy the baseball off-season differently than our fathers and grandfathers did. MLB Trade Rumors and Twitter add instant gratification to the team building process. This adds a premium to scoops. A MLBTR link or a widespread retweet means more page views for the publication, therefore more advertising revenue. Reporters look under every table, between every seat cushion for a rumor to feed the masses.

With so many guys covering the Yankees — beat writers, columnists, national reporters — it’s easy to imagine that they cover everything. No rumor goes unturned, right? Like, for instance, when the Yankees make an offer to a free agent. This week, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick said that free agent pitcher Justin Duchscherer would soon decide which of three offers to take. Duchscherer has been connected to the Yankees, but we hadn’t heard of an official offer from them, NBC’s Craig Calcaterra noted.

There has been a lot of chatter about the Yankees being interested lately, but that seems a little late to the game, and no word of an offer has yet seeped out of Yankeeland. Given how many people crawl that beat, I’d be rather surprised if a previously unreported offer had been made by New York.

In a way it would be surprising if an official offer slipped by the pack of repeaters covering the team. Surely one of them has to hear something, right? Yet it appears to be a tough beat in New York. The Yankees have maintained confidentiality these past two winters, as if Brian Cashman ordered his close advisers to take vows of silence. Just ask any of the guys on the Yankees beat. None of the higher ups really say anything.

The way things have run these past two years, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Yankees made an offer to Duchscherer. As it turns out they probably didn’t. But that’s because they had another target in mind. On Monday night at 8:41, ESPN’s Buster Olney heard that the Yankees were working on a deal for a starting pitcher. Ken Rosenthal confirmed, and we waited the rest of the night waiting for a name. At just after 9:30 this morning, Joel Sherman found out it was Javy Vazquez. An hour later, we had confirmation of a done deal. The Yankees worked quick and kept things so quiet that reporters couldn’t get as much as a name until an hour before completion.

What’s amazing is how quiet other teams have kept, too. No one from the Braves leaked this to a reporter. We also didn’t get word on the Granderson trade until about 14 hours before completion, and even that was to a pair of national writers who seem to get every scoop. I even wonder, in that case, if the Tigers or the Diamondbacks leaked that to put the pressure on the Yanks. I doubt the leak came from the Yankees, who were the last ones to sign off.

The stealth tactic has worked well. I do wonder exactly how it’s benefited the Yankees. How many deals fall apart after they’re leaked? If that’s a common occurrence, the Yankees are doing themselves a huge favor by keeping that type of information on the down low. Even if it doesn’t help that much, it’s a pretty neat tactic when observing from afar. The Vazquez experience played like a suspense flick. Buster Olney provided the exposition, we waited in suspense while people speculated as to who it could possibly be, then we got the climax, some falling action (made more amusing by some ridiculous reactions), and finally the resolution, an afternoon conference call. I could get used to this mode of operation.

KLaw’s analysis of the Vazquez trade

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As he does with ever major move, Keith Law gave his take of today’s Javy Vazquez trade, noting that the Yanks “could very well enter 2010 a better team on paper than they were at the same time before 2009.” That should scare the crap out of the rest of the league. KLaw acknowledges that Arodys Vizcaino is a fantastic prospect, but also adds that Melky Cabrera is a “fairly pricey for a fourth outfielder,” and that Mike Dunn still has a ton of work to do on his command.

It’s definitely a long term sacrifice for a short term gain, but the Yanks can afford to take such risks.

Open Thread: Images of Melky

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Earlier this morning the Yankees shipped Melky Cabrera and two prospects to Atlanta for Javy Vazquez and a store brand lefty reliever. It’s no secret that the three of us at RAB weren’t Melky’s biggest backers, but that certainly doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate his four-plus years of service to our beloved Bombers.

As frustrating as it was to watching him swing at pitches over his head, Melky had a flair for the dramatic and his energy was refreshing to watch on a team that got too corporate at times. He filled in admirably when Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield went down with injuries in 2006, and since then he’s done a fine job while playing all three outfield positions. Whether he was robbing homers at the wall or walking off with wins, Melky was a fan favorite and he’ll be missed.

Instead of a written word tribute, let’s honor the Melkman with some images. After the jump, a collection of our favorite Melky moments. Be sure to add yours in the comments. Otherwise, here’s your open thread. Also, make sure to check out the content from our heavy afternoon:

Yanks looking to trade Gaudin or Mitre
Prospect Profile: J.R. Murphy
Damon, Bay, or Holliday would break the budget
Minor league notes, with a tidbit about Jesus Montero, plus a minor league signing.
You’ll never guess who the Yankees third baseman of the decade is…
Javier Vazquez by the numbers

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Javy Vazquez by the numbers

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Just some stuff I came across regarding Javier Vazquez today…

Payroll implications

By my back of the napkin calculation, the Yankees were at around $197 million in payroll before the Vazquez trade. This included estimated arbitration raises to Melky Cabrera, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre, plus filling out the roster with reserve clause players. Given all the talk about the Yankees’ 2010 budget, it didn’t appear they had room to make a big move. That is, unless the budget number is a bit higher than $200 million. That seems to be the case.

I could go through and make a calculation of the new payroll, but since this is an informal look at the numbers, I’m taking a different approach. Let’s compare what the Yankees shed this off-season to what they picked up.

Off the books
Johnny Damon – $13 million
Hideki Matsui – $13 million
Andy Pettitte – ~$10.5 million
Xavier Nady: $6.5 million
Chien-Ming Wang: $5 million
Brian Bruney: $1.25 million
Melky Cabrera: $1.4 million
Jose Molina: $2.125 million

Total: $52.775 million

Additions
Javy Vazquez: $11.5 million
Curtis Granderson: $5.5 million
Nick Johnson: $5.5 million
Andy Pettitte: $11.75 million

Total: $34.25 million

Raises
Derek Jeter: $1 million
CC Sabathia: $8.8 million (not sure how he showed up on the OD payroll, though)
Robinson Cano: $3 million
Nick Swisher: $1.45 million
Damaso Marte: $0.25 million

Total: $14.5 million

The additions and raises add up to $48.75 million, or just over $4 million in savings. That money will cover the arbitration cases for Gaudin and Mitre, and if the Yankees do trade Gaudin it would cover just about everything. So if the Yankees do intend to sign a left fielder, they’ll go over 2009 payroll by a little bit. But, if CC’s full salary (the ~$15 million salary plus signing bonus) did count against the OD payroll (I think it did), then the Yanks have some wiggle room. Not Matt Holliday wiggle room, but a little at least.

Quality of opponents faced

I’m not sure what we can take from Baseball Prospectus’s quality of batters faced statistics, but it’ll be an interesting look in any case. Clearly, with the pitcher in the nine hole Vazquez faced easier competition in the National League in 2009. But by how much?

Javy’s best American League season came in 2007 with the White Sox. Over 216.2 innings he pitched to a 3.74 ERA, posting 8.85 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, and a 3.80 FIP. Those are excellent numbers by any standard — though his 1.20 HR/9 mark is a bit concerning (though partly a product of the Sox ballpark). That year, he faced opponents who combined for a .270/.339/.418 line. Not too shabby.

Last year, when he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting, Vazquez faced batters who hit a combined .254/.328/.403. They’re a bit worse, as expected, since the nine hole is consistently filled by a pitcher. Stilll, it’s good to know that he can do it against better opponents, too. For comparison, in his 2008 season in Chicago he faced batters who hit .263/.337/.412, so they were slightly worse than the hitters he faced in 2007, but he fared worse.

Confused yet?

Batted ball data

When trying to account for an uncharacteristically good or bad season from a player, I like to check out their batted ball data to see if there is any significant shift. There appears to be one for Vazquez in 2009. He increased his ground ball percentage, which is always welcome, but more importantly he drastically reduced his fly ball percentage. He had been in the low 40% range for most of his career, but in 2009 he brought it all the way down to 34.8 percent. That’s quite excellent for a player who has a home run to fly ball rate of over 10 percent for his career. Javy is home run prone, but if he keeps the ball out of the air he’ll fare much, much better in that regard.

Plate discipline

Another stat from Vazquez’s FanGraphs page: opponents had a tough time making contact with pitches outside the strike zone. In 2009 Vazquez threw more pitches outside the zone than at any point in his career. Yet he still posted the best walk rate since 2001. The key: opponents just couldn’t hit those pitches. Does it mean Vazquez found something on his breaking and off-speed pitches that eluded him before? I’m not quite sure. It’s an interesting phenomenon, for sure.

Not only did Vazquez throw more pitches out of the zone in 2009 than he had before in his career, but opposing hitters swung at them less frequently than in years past. Even with those two factors, hitters just couldn’t make as much contact on those pitches. That’s something I’ll definitely be looking for when Javy takes the mound this season.

First half of 2004

Many fans can’t forgive Javy for his 2004 meltdown. It started at the All-Star break, and extended all the way through the playoffs. But don’t let that discount what he did early in the season. Through 18 starts, Javy averaged almost 6.2 innings per start, posting a 3:1 K/BB ratio and allowing just 47 runs through 118.2 innings.

By the Decade: Better off with him

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On a busy day in the Yankee Universe, we continue our look at the Yankees By the Decade with a stop at the Hot Corner. For the last six seasons, A-Rod has owned that position, and he is clearly the third baseman of the decade. It’s not even close.

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To get a sense of just how good A-Rod has been at third base, let’s look at some comparative numbers. For the table above, I used players who had played at least ten games at third base. Thus, Gary Sheffield’s brief 2004 cameo at the Hot Corner and other similarly misguided experiments from the past decade are not covered here. As it stands, A-Rod enjoyed 54.6 percent of the Yanks’ third base at-bats and around 55.8 percent of all plate appearances. My, how he delivered.

In those at-bats, A-Rod was responsible for 72.9 percent of all Yankee third base home runs, 64.4 percent of the walks and 83 percent of the intentional walks. He accounted for 65.4 percent of all third base RBIs, and without his stunning .301/.401/.566 line, Yankee third basemen hit .245/.313/.393. He simply towers above anyone else including old fan favorite Scott Brosius and 2003 hero Aaron Boone.

What is amazing though about this decade of A-Rod is how tumultuous it has been. It began with a near-trade to the Red Sox in late 2003 that fell apart over Boston’s reluctance to pony up the dough. After the proposed Manny-for-Alex swap fell through, the Yankees swooped in and landed A-Rod and his contract for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias. The Yanks were the only team that could afford A-Rod’s astronomical salary, and they gave up nothing too great in return.

For A-Rod, it was a tough adjustment to New York. He had a down-for-him year in 2004, hitting just 36 home runs with a line of .286/.375/.512. He was great in the ALDS against the Twins and then vanished, along with the rest of the team, in Games 4-7 against the Red Sox in the ALCS. Much as Javier Vazquez was dismissed from New York for his role in the collapse, A-Rod too bore the brunt of the blame, most notably for his slap play in Game 6.

He responded nicely in 2005 and won the first of his two Bronx MVP awards. He hit .321/.421/.610 with 48 home runs and 130 RBIs. Again, though, his post-season numbers were bad. In the ALDS, he went just 2 for 15. The following postseason, he went 1 for 14 in the Division Series, was dropped to eighth in the batting order and drew himself the Choker label.

In 2007, Good A-Rod showed up again, but the fans were wary. On the verge of opting out of his contract, A-Rod hit 54 home runs, drove in 156 and did nothing in October. As the Red Sox were about to win the World Series, he opted out of his contract, and the Yankees vowed never to deal with him again. Three weeks later, he was back in pinstripes for a record deal worth up to $305 million over ten years. The press hated him, and the fans were skeptical.

This past year, the fans finally embraced A-Rod. He notched his 12th straight year with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs by blasting two and driving in seven on the final day of the season, and his hot hitting carried over into the playoffs. Against the Twins, Angels and Phillies, A-Rod hit .365/.500/.808 with six home runs and 18 RBIs. As a decade begun with Scotty Bro and celebrated by Aaron Boone came to a close, Yankee fans had finally come to accept A-Rod as he should be, as the third base as the decade and as the team’s offensive star.

Despite early-season articles, despite sports writer consternation, the Yankees are truly better off with Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez. Make no mistake about it.

Minor Notes: Montero, Prospect Lists, Draft

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Got some minor league notes to pass along…

  • As I’m sure you’ve already heard, farm director Mark Newman confirmed that Jesus Montero and Austin Romine will start the year in Triple-A and Double-A, respectively. Montero’s bat is definitely ready for the jump, though his glove isn’t, so that will be a big challenge for him. Romine’s ready for Trenton, he probably was in August.
  • Kevin Goldstein ran down his top eleven Yankee prospects, with Montero topping the list as the team’s only five star prospect. Since departed Arodys Vizcaino was the team’s only four star prospect, and they’re followed by a slew of three star guys. Trust me, trading Arodys stings, but remember that he’s a 19-year old that has yet to play in a full season league. He’s just a lotto ticket.
  • Coincidentally, Marc Hulet at FanGraphs posted his list of the Yanks top ten Yankee prospects, and had Vizcaino fourth behind Montero, Romine, and Zach McAllister. He also had Mike Dunn rated 6th, which is about as high as you’ll see him on any list. I like Mike Dunn, but sheesh, not that much.
  • Meanwhile, Hulet is also running through his annual review of each team’s recent drafts, and hit the Yankees yesterday. If you’re looking for the quick recap of the last four drafts, then I highly recommend it, Marc does a great job. Five members of the Yanks’ 2006 draft class have already reached the big leagues, and three others are legitimately on the door step. Quite a haul.
  • The Yanks signed outfielder Javier Herrera to a minor league deal. Baseball America rated him the sixth best prospect in Oakland’s system as recently as 2007, though he had Tommy John surgery and never quite figured it out. He’s a career .282-.358-.468 hitter in the minors, though he has just 15 plate appearances above Double-A. Decent little gamble.

Damon, Bay, Holliday still too expensive for Yanks

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With the trade of Melky Cabrera this morning, the Yanks are short a Major League outfielder. Although many assumed that Melky would be the starting left fielder with Johnny Damon’s departure, the Yankees seemed willing to go into Spring Training with the position up for grabs. Now, though, it falls into Brett Gardner’s lap. As some clamor for a better solution for left field, the Yanks are standing pat for now. The Yanks would reportedly prefer to spend around $5-$6 on a left fielder, and according to Mark Feinsand and Joel Sherman, the price tags on Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay remain too steep for the Bombers. As Joe wrote last night, if the price is right on Mark DeRosa, he could be a good fit.