NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Kristaps Porzingis, Nolan Arenado, and the Yankees

February 3, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

At the end of the week, the Knicks did something shocking that made a lot of people angry, as they are wont to do. Rather hastily, it seems, they traded injured-but-promising forward Kristaps Porzingis (and others) to the Dallas Mavericks for Dennis Smith, Jr. and a bunch of cap space. They’ll use that cap space to lure max contract-worthy free agents, just like they did post-2010 when they were able to sign…no one but Amare Stoudemire.

On January 31st, the Rockies avoided arbitration with Nolan Arenado, to whom the Yankees have been linked this offseason. Not just that, but Mike himself noted that the team’s owner is optimistic that the two parties can work out an extension now, rather than having to wait until 2019-20’s free agency period.

What do these two unrelated things have to do with the Yankees? They’re instructive, offering lessons the Yankees should take during this offseason: don’t waste a good thing when you’ve got it and don’t wait until next year.

The Knicks have been objectively terrible for a while now, much worse than the Yankees have been in decades. But in recent years, they had one thing going for them: Porzingis. Shelved as he may be this year, he was and is popular among his peers and fans for his unicorn skillset and talents. Undeniably, he was the one good thing you could count on for the future, especially considering the high draft pick the Knicks are likely to land after this season. He’s a good player with the potential to get better, something you build around. Obviously, his apparent frustration with the Knicks outweighed that in their mind and they shipped him out for the potential brought on by big money. Still, the return for a player as unique as Porzingis seems underwhelming and if they were going to move him before this week, they could’ve gotten something better. It’s unlikely that the Knicks would compete for a championship as soon as the Yankees will (this year, next year, etc.), but there’s something analogous in their situations.

The Yankees have an incredibly talented young core of players that they’ve supplemented by adding Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu and Adam Ottavino. But by not adding the bigger pieces–Manny Machado and Bryce Harper–they risk not doing quite enough to push this talented team over the top. The Yankees are going to be very good in 2019; they’re going to win a lot of games and could, conceivably, win the World Series. Adding Harper, Machado, or both doesn’t guarantee them winning the World Series, of course, but it would go a long way towards helping. The Yankees aren’t selling a central piece like the Knicks did, but like the Knicks and their trade return, they risk not getting all they can from this core, from this very open window of competition.

Similarly, the Yankees can’t take a ‘wait till next year’ approach to fix any remaining holes or make any additions because, as an Arenado extension would show, your plans for next year can fall apart the minute another team does something. Man plans, baseball laughs.

The Yankees opting for Arenado–should he be available–isn’t ostensibly bad; he’s a great player that any team would be happy to have. But that’s just in a vacuum. Having him next year after not having Manny Machado this year is, relatively speaking, bad. Do not wait until next year. The better, younger player is right there for the taking, as is another younger, better player in Bryce Harper.

Given what I’m saying here, it feels like this should’ve been written in November or December. But here we are in February without these two great players signed, despite fitting the roster. Now, we’ve watched the Yankees’ ‘neighbor’ do something ill-advised and are watching as a potential target is starting to disappear. The 2019 Yankees are poised to do good things, but by not capitalizing on what they have, by waiting for next year, they’re holding back from doing great things.

The Yankees and the Myth of the Onerous Long-Term Contract

February 2, 2019 by Bobby Montano

The time for bad Spring Training photos is almost upon us, but 16 teams have not yet signed a free agent. Of those that have, 23 have not signed a player to a contract longer than two years—only 10 out of 77 players who have inked a deal this offseason are guaranteed a job after the 2020 season. One common rationale for this phenomenon is that teams are wising up after decades of handing out long-term deals. That those deals are onerous for teams has become conventional in many baseball circles, but there’s only one small problem with that line of thinking: it’s completely wrong.

The Yankees are a useful case study here: They’re the richest franchise in the sport and have been at the center of some of the game’s richest contracts. It’s worth going through the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history (all of which come after 2001) and examining how each of those contracts actually worked out for the Bombers. Doing so puts to rest the idea that the Yankees have somehow suffered as a result of big spending.

7. Jason Giambi (7 years, $120 million)

The Yankees signed Jason Giambi after their 2001 World Series defeat—having bested Giambi’s Oakland A’s in consecutive ALDS—to replace the beloved Tino Martinez at first base. Giambi’s 7-year, $120 million contract is the 55^th largest of all-time and he more than lived up to his end of the bargain.

Across his seven years in pinstripes, the Giambino slugged .260/.404/521 (143 OPS+) with 209 home runs and 619 walks in 3,693 plate appearances. That he missed roughly half of the year with injury in both 2004 and 2008 limits his overall WAR total (22.1 by Baseball-Reference), but he was a 4 win player per 650 AB with the Yankees. Giambi was a lot more productive than he gets remembered for.

His early-season walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 14^th inning with the Yankees down 3 against the Minnesota Twins and two home runs off Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS are two of his more memorable moments. The Yankees never won a World Series while he was in town, so he is often forgotten among recent Yankee greats, but Giambi was a middle-of-the-order force on a team that went 680-455 (.599 winning percentage) during his tenure in the Bronx.

It’s safe to say that Giambi was worth every penny.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153 million)

Jacoby Ellsbury penned a 7-year, $153 million deal with the Yanks fresh off a World Series victory with the rival Red Sox in 2013. He was only the 18^th player in MLB history to receive a contract worth over $150 million, and he was supposed to inject life into a dormant Yanks offense. But this one, as we all know, has not gone according to plan.

Ellsbury has missed considerable time due to injury and has been mostly bad when healthy. His .264/.330/.386 (95 OPS+) line with the New York is well-below what the Yankees hoped for, and he has only been worth 9 wins in pinstripes.

But it’s important to remember that Ellsbury was often injured and only infrequently an above-average hitter for Boston. Although the argument at the time was that speedy outfielders tended to have softer declines than many of their peers, it’s clear that he was never the player the Yanks expected. His 8-win MVP-runner-up 2011 season with Boston was clearly an outlier at the time and looks even more so now—this particular contract speaks more to an organizational failure by the Yankees than it does Ellsbury.

5. Masahiro Tanaka (7 years, $155 million + $20 million posting fee)

The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a 7-year, $155 million contract just weeks after locking up Ellsbury in a series of moves that was meant to revitalize an aging, stale Yanks group. Tanaka, though, has clearly done his part at the top of the rotation.

Despite a dance with Tommy John, Tanaka has been a reliably above-average arm for the Yanks. He owns a 64-34 (.653) record, posting a 3.59 ERA (118 ERA+) with 9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 824.1 innings pitched (15.6 bWAR) since the start of 2014. He may seemingly always give up a home run, but that should not detract from the fact that the Yankees are lucky to have him take the mound every five days.

A fierce competitor, Tanaka has been lockdown in October, with a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings pitched. His 7 shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians in Game 3 of the 2017 ALDS quite literally saved the season, he was lockdown in both his ALCS starts against the Houston Astros, and he was the only Yankee to win a postseason game this year against Boston. If it’s a big game, you feel comfortable with Tanaka on the mound—and it’s clear that the Yankees shouldn’t regret his deal.

4. CC Sabathia (7 years, $160 million)

The Yankees gave Sabathia a 7-year, $160 million contract following their disappointing 2008 campaign and Sabathia’s legendary one, and he would eventually leveraged an opt-out into what amounted to a 2-year extension following 2011. CC was expected to be the type of ace to carry the Yanks back to the promised land. He did just that in his first try, and he has become one of the most beloved Yankees of the current generation in the process.

CC owns a 129-80 (.617) record with the Yanks, powered by a 3.74 ERA (115 ERA+) in 1,810.2 innings pitched. He’s been worth 30 bWAR, and only 9 pitchers in Yankee history will have won more games in pinstripes than CC when all is said and done.

I wrote all about CC Sabathia last week, so I’ve said about all I can say about him, but one thing is clear: the Yankees absolutely do not regret allowing him to call the Bronx home for final 11 seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

3. Mark Teixeira (8 years, $180 million)

Teixeira’s shocking 8-year, $180 million contract came on a day when most of us expected him to sign with the Red Sox. Instead, the Yanks swooped in and found Jason Giambi’s replacement. Teixeira was a 3-win player per 650 ABs across his 8 years in pinstripes but saw his final few years plagued by frequent injury.

Still, Teixeira hit .248/.343/.479 (118 OPS+) with 206 home runs across 3,522 plate appearances with New York, averaging 35 home runs every 162 games. Teixeira was also a sterling defender at first base, thrice winning the Gold Glove in pinstripes.

His huge 2009 campaign, in which he slugged .292/.383/.565 (141 OPS+) with 39 home runs, netted him 2^nd place in the AL MVP voting, and his 11^th inning walk-off home run against the Twins in Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS was a key moment in the Yanks’ World Series run. Teixeira made the Yankees better for the better part of 8 years, and he was an instrumental player on a 103-win championship team. Big free agent signings are supposed to help you win World Series, and Teixeira did just that. The Yankees should not regret this one either.

2. Derek Jeter (10 years, $189 million)

Derek Jeter inked his first major deal following the 2001 campaign, receiving almost $200 million across 10 years. This one’s easy: a first ballot Hall of Famer and all-time great Yankee, there is no doubt that the Jeter deal made the Yankees a better team.

Across the terms of this contract, Jeter hit .308/.378/.436 (115 OPS+) with 304 doubles and 141 home runs, overall totaling 37.5 bWAR. Jeter was a part of too many big Yankee moments to name, but his 3,000 hit off David Price and July 1, 2004 catch against Boston in which he flew into the stands stick out as two of his top moments over this deal. Jeter is one of the best players in baseball history, in the conversation for the best shortstop ever, and the Yankees certainly don’t regret this deal in the slightest.

1. Alex Rodriguez (Two 10-year contracts)

Alex Rodriguez, were it not for Barry Bonds, might just be the most controversial baseball player in league history. Under constant media scrutiny over his love life, relationship with the Yankee captain and former friend Derek Jeter, steroid usage and at-times contentious relationship with the league and organization, A-Rod divided baseball (and Yankee fans) as nobody else could. But amid the noise, one thing is clear: Rodriguez was worth the money.

A-Rod signed two major deals in his career, and the Yankees were at the center of both. For the purposes of this exercise, let’s analyze the two separately.

10-year, $252 million contract (Offered by the Texas Rangers, Yankee from 2004-07)

By far the largest contract ever handed out at the time, the first A-Rod deal is often pointed to as an example of big contracts gone awry. That is absurd. I repeat: that is absurd.

A-Rod was simply nothing less than one of the most productive baseball players in baseball history across his first 10-year deal, slugging .304/.400/.591 (154 OPS+) with 329 home runs, 3 MVPs, 7 ASGs and 56.4 bWAR. (For perspective, Bernie Williams was worth 49 bWAR in his entire career.) If anything, this deal was a bargain for both Texas and New York.

For the Yankees, his three-home run, 10 RBI performance against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and towering walk-off grand slam against the Indians as the Yanks scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 9^th (all with two outs) stand out as signature moments during this stretch.

Although the Yankees only rostered Rodriguez on this deal for the 2004-7 campaigns, he managed to win 2 MVPs and smash 173 home runs in four years. He was blamed for the Yanks’ failure to win the World Series and often caught the ire of fans, but it’s clear that expecting more (on-the-field, anyway) from Alex Rodriguez was unrealistic. He was as good as you can be.

10-year, $275 million contract (Offered by Yankees following A-Rod’s 2007 opt-out)

The second A-Rod deal, on the other hand, is much more complicated. It was the last time we saw Hank Steinbrenner, and this mega-deal came even as Brian Cashman publicly said the organization would let Rodriguez walk if he opted out. Instead, A-Rod opted out during the final game of the 2007 World Series to much outcry, and the Yankees re-signed him anyway. While A-Rod wasn’t the same player at the end of this deal, he was comfortably above-average the whole time. Not to mention, the Yanks wouldn’t have won the 2009 World Series without him, and they’d never have been able to replace him.

The Yankees were scuffling a bit amid huge expectations in April of 2009, and the Yanks were without their injured (and recently scandalized) All-Star third baseman. When he returned in early May, he slugged a three-run home run in Camden Yards in his first at-bat and the Yankees never looked back. A-Rod hit 30 home runs and drove in 100 runs despite missing over a month, and was absolutely an essential component of the Yankees postseason run.

His 2-run, game-tying home run off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 9^th of Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS is one of the defining moments of that era, but he also hit the go-ahead home run in Game 3, hit another game-tying home run in extra innings in the Game 2 of the ALDS and had the go-ahead hit in the top of the 9th inning of Game 4 of the World Series to give the Yanks a 3-1 lead. Without A-Rod, there’s no 2009 title. It’s that simple.

Despite the fact that the second contract was scandalized by more steroid allegations, a lawsuit against the Yankees, and a full-season suspension, A-Rod actually hit .269/.359/.486 (123 OPS+) with 178 home runs over those final years, and had one final great campaign in 2015. Even during his down years, A-Rod was better than most other players in the league. Given his repaired relationship with the Yankees, it’s fair to say that the team and player have both moved on from any hostility—and fans should too.

Alex Rodriguez is the recipient of two of the most misunderstood contracts of all-time from a baseball perspective, and it’s time we all acknowledge a simple fact: he was well worth the money.

Special Mention: Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million)

Giancarlo Stanton received a 13-year, $325 million contract from the Miami Marlins in 2014, with the Yankees acquiring him following the 2017 campaign. It’s too early to say whether or not this deal will work out for New York, but the early indications are a resounding yes.

Across the first four years of the deal, Stanton has hit .265/.350/.557 (143 OPS+) and has hit 151 home runs. Even his relatively down year last year with the Yanks was extremely productive, and he figures to be a major force in the middle of the Yankee lineup for at least two more years, depending on whether or not he exercises his opt-out following the 2020 season (if I were him, I would not). More to come on this one, but if the recent history of large NYY contracts is any indication, they won’t regret this at all.

Conclusions

What this shows us is that the big, onerous contract that we hear so much about is largely a strawman: it barely exists. Of the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history, only one of them (Ellsbury) is a true albatross, and again, that speaks more to a failure by the Yankees than it reflects poorly on Ellsbury. He’s the same player he always was. In other words, 6 out of 7 (85%) have significantly improved the Yankees and made them a better team.

But there’s another key point buried in here. Most of these deals came in relatively close proximity to one another. The Yankees signed Giambi one year after giving Jeter his 10-year deal; they added Teixeira and Sabathia in the same offseason; they signed Tanaka and Ellsbury in the same offseason; they added Stanton despite having Ellsbury’s and Tanaka’s deals on the books, underscoring how the deal isn’t prohibitive at all. This tells us that fears that the Yankees cannot offer another long-term mega deal (or two!) if they want to re-sign their own developed core are unfounded. (Granted, the data has always shown that it was unfounded.)

Despite what we often year about large contracts and long-term financial obligations, the reality is that the Yankees simply haven’t suffered, financially or on-the-field, as a result of any of their major deals in the last 20 years. If anything, those deals are a major reason why the Yankees have not had a losing season since 1992—and the Yankees, and their fans, would be wise to remember that.

Florial, King headline 2019 Spring Training non-roster invitees

February 1, 2019 by Mike

In the surest sign Spring Training is fast approaching, the Yankees announced their list of non-roster invitees earlier today. The farm system has thinned out — most of the prospect star power is in the lower minors — and, as a result, the non-roster list is largely devoid of big name youngsters. Lot of journeyman and minor league depth guys. So it goes.

As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically. That includes notable prospects like Albert Abreu and Domingo Acevedo. Here are the 21 non-roster invitees:

PITCHERS (10)
LHP Rex Brothers
LHP Nestor Cortes
RHP Cale Coshow
LHP Danny Coulombe
RHP Raynel Espinal
RHP Danny Farquhar
RHP David Hale
RHP Drew Hutchison
RHP Mike King
RHP Brady Lail

CATCHERS (4)
Francisco Diaz
Kellin Deglan
Ryan Lavarnway
Jorge Saez

INFIELDERS (3)
1B Mike Ford
SS Kyle Holder
3B Gio Urshela

OUTFIELDERS (4)
Trey Amburgey
Billy Burns
Estevan Florial
Matt Lipka

The Farquhar, Hale, Lavarnway, Saez, and Urshela minor league contracts are now official. The Brothers, Coulombe, Hutchison, Burns, and Lipka deals had been previously announced. Also, Lail and Deglan are back on minor league contracts. Both became minor league free agents after last season and have rejoined the team.

Florial and King are the two headliners among the non-roster invitees. Florial is the top prospect in the organization (at least in my opinion) and King was last year’s breakout pitcher, climbing three levels to reach Triple-A and put himself on the cusp of a big league call-up. I don’t think King has much of a chance to make the Opening Day roster but he could put himself in position to be the first starter called up when a need arises.

Last week I predicted 22 non-roster invitees. I didn’t have Deglan, Hale, or Saez on my list because they were not in the organization at the time, and I had Coshow and Ford on the outside looking in. Righties Nick Nelson and Clarke Schmidt are the two notable prospects who I thought would get a non-roster invite but didn’t. Schmidt is understandable because he’s just back from Tommy John surgery. Nelson? Dunno. Guess the Yankees don’t think the big stuff/poor command righty is ready for big league camp.

The Yankees currently have two bullpen spots and one bench spot up for grabs. I think Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa are the front-runners for the two bullpen spots. Not sure about the bench spot. Could be Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade, one of the non-roster guys, or a player yet to be acquired.

RAB Live Chat

February 1, 2019 by Mike

OOTP Guest Series: What if the Yankees sign Bryce Harper and Manny Machado?

February 1, 2019 by Mike

The hot stove is running cold right now, so this week we’re running a series of guest posts from Sam Tydings, Steven’s brother. Sam used Out of the Park Baseball to simulate some past “what if” Yankees scenarios. We’ve already looked at the Greg Maddux non-signing, the Albert Belle non-signing, the Vlad Guerrero non-signing, and the Cliff Lee non-trade. Now it’s time to look forward with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. You can follow Sam on Twitter at @simmonsclass.

We’ve spent the last week looking at pivotal moments from the Yankees recent past, so for the final installment of this series, let’s take a look at the team’s immediate future. With Spring Training right around the corner, it seems like the Yankees roster is set, aside from adding maybe a swingman or a few non-roster invites.

Though we have heard all offseason not to count them out until the ink is on the page, it seems highly unlikely that Manny Machado or Bryce Harper will be joining the team at Steinbrenner Field in a few weeks. Better writers than I have spent the entire offseason making a case for the Yankees to sign one, the other, or both, so to wrap things up things up this week, let’s take a look at the most tantalizing option and give Harper and Machado a (fake) home in the Bronx.

One of the reasons offered as to why the Yankees should pass on signing either big name free agent is that it would inhibit the team’s ability to lock up their homegrown talent down the road. If you are one of the people citing that as a reason to avoid both stars, the results of this sim are for you.

I signed Machado to a 7-year, $186 million contract (a steal) and Harper to a 9-year, $326 million deal (probably more in line with what he ends up getting). The signings paid immediate dividends, as the Yankees won 105 games to cruise to the AL East title and eventually the pennant. Harper hit 46 homers en route to the MVP, while Machado hit 32 and brought home the Gold Glove at 3B. The team brought home title number 28 in 2020 and everything seemed good in fake Yankeeland.

Unfortunately, the big money handed out to Machado and Harper reared its ugly head as the team chose to let Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton walk, leading to rapidly diminishing returns from a once strong rotation. The team did not make it back to the World Series for the duration of either of their contracts. Both players finished their careers with over 550 home runs, were elected to the Hall of Fame in their first years of eligibility (Harper 98%, Machado 94.2%), and both even went in as Yankees.

Here is fake Harper’s career (click for larger view):

And here is fake Machado’s career (click for larger):

However, the idea of signing both of these players to long term contracts at their young ages is to ensure a dynasty comparable to the late 90’s teams, or if you want to be incredibly optimistic, the dynasties from the 40’s. The Yankees as currently constructed are probably good enough to win one of the next few World Series without adding either Harper or Machado, so winning just one in a decade with both of them staying healthy would be an unparalleled disappointment.

There was an assumption from the moment that he debuted on the cover of Sports Illustrated that Bryce Harper would don the pinstripes at his first opportunity, and Machado has been linked to the team since at least last year’s winter meetings, if not earlier. There are probably Yankees fans out there who are already photoshopping Vlad Jr. into a Yankee hat and trying to figure out where he would hit in the 2025 lineup.

For a variety of reasons, these dreams rarely come to pass. The Sabathia coups are much less common than seeing Cliff Lee, Max Scherzer, and David Price end up on another team’s roster. On its face, the Yankees offseason so far has been a success. They’ve added a very good pitcher to their already strong rotation, added to the best bullpen in baseball, and increased their depth in the infield. Considering how much of the rest of the league seems to not have an interest in winning, it has been an extremely productive winter for Brian Cashman and company.

The Yankees can afford to add Harper and Machado to shore up two of the only relative weaknesses on their roster and they should, simply for the fact that it would keep two elite players from joining other teams. Do they need either one to be successful? I don’t think so. If Out of the Park Baseball is to be believed, even bringing both into the fold would not guarantee an instant dynasty.

But 26-year old talents rarely hit the open market in any year, much less two in the same winter, so why not take advantage of the cold stove? If any organization in the league is built to withstand the inevitable circus that would come with such a power move, it is the Yankees. Most baseball fans will lose their minds over the Yankees spending big and cornering the market again. But not only has every other team had plenty of time to lock in either player, I have a very large sim file which shows that even in a Yankees fan’s fantasy offseason scenario, it might work out in a way that will make the Yankee haters happiest of all when the final story is written.

Revisiting the MLBTR Archives: February 2014

February 1, 2019 by Mike

Welcome to February. Spring Training is right around the corner. Now that we’re in a new month, it’s time again to dive into the MLB Trade Rumors archives to remember Some Guys and relive some old hot stove rumblings. The Yankees went 85-77 against all odds in 2013 and were looking to get back to the postseason. The Alex Rodriguez suspension saga was looming over them, as was an aging roster.

The 2013-14 offseason was a big one for the Yankees. Most notably, they lost Robinson Cano to the Mariners. They attempted to prop up the roster with four big signings (Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Masahiro Tanaka) and several smaller signings (Kelly Johnson, Brian Roberts, Matt Thornton). It didn’t work out — the Yankees went 84-78 in 2014 and missed the postseason again — but we didn’t know that in February. Let’s go back in time, shall we?

February 6th, 2014: Twelve Teams Have Asked Nationals About Espinosa

The Nats are balking at moving Espinosa despite interest from the Yankees, among other clubs, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

The Danny Espinosa collapse was well underway at this point. He hit .242/.319/.408 (99 wRC+) with 38 homers from 2011-12 and was a +3 WAR player each year. A league average hitting middle infielder with 20-ish homer pop and very good defense is a nice little player. Espinosa fell apart in 2013 (22 wRC+), however, and never really recovered. Given the state of the infield in February 2014, it made sense for the Yankees to try to buy low on 26-year-old Espinosa and see whether he could get back to being a +3 WAR player. I can’t help but wonder what they were willing to give up. Espinosa was in camp with the Yankees as a non-roster invitee last spring. They got their man eventually.

February 7th, 2014: Minor Moves: Cole Kimball, Omir Santos

The Yankees have signed righty Cole Kimball to a minor league deal, reports Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Kimball, 28, had spent his entire career with the Nationals organization, making a brief big league debut in 2011 with a 1.93 ERA in 14 innings (though he both struck out and walked 7.1 batters per nine). Since then, however, Kimball has struggled with shoulder issues. In 2012, he threw just 5 2/3 minor league innings. Last year, splitting time between Rookie ball and Triple-A, Kimball posted a 7.31 ERA in 28 1/3 innings with 8.9 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9.

Once upon a time Kimball had some prospect shine as a reliever with the Nationals. The Yankees scooped him up to see whether he could help out with a healthy shoulder, then he allowed 14 runs in 26.2 innings with Double-A Trenton. Kimball went to an independent league and later Mexico, and was out of baseball by 2015. Pretty wild how quickly it can fall apart in this game. Kimball was a good reliever prospect who got a taste of the show in 2011 and was poised to assume a larger role with Washington in 2012. Instead, out of baseball by 2015. Yeesh.

February 7th, 2014: Quick Hits: Epstein, Cespedes, Tanaka, Arb Hearings

Turning back to the aforementioned Tanaka, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told ESPN Radio today (via ESPNNewYork.com’s Andrew Marchand) that the club views its new acquisition as “a really solid, consistent number three starter.” Cashman noted that, though the club scouted Tanaka extensively, uncertainty remains as to how he will transition to the big leagues. “If we get more than that,” Cashman said, “all the better. He’s got a great deal of ability.”

Ah yes, the famed “a really solid, consistent number three starter” comment that was repeated ad nauseum for weeks. Brian Cashman always — always — downplays expectations. The Yankees had just given Masahiro Tanaka a seven-year contract worth $155M, and paid a $20M release fee on top of that. Yeah, sure, they expected a No. 3 starter. Cashman has always been an “underperform and over-deliver” guy and I’m not sure there’s a better example of that than Tanaka. Since his 2014 debut Tanaka is 21st in WAR and 22nd in ERA+ among all pitchers (min. 500 innings). That ain’t no No. 3 starter.

February 8th, 2014: East Notes: Marlins, Orioles, Yankees

The Yankees are making upgrades to their minor-league complex in Tampa, Fla., including a cafeteria for players and field refurbishments, reports Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. The Yankees have also added to their player development staff, bringing in more scouts and a statistics guru, following a season that saw struggles up and down their farm system.

This was the start of the farm system turnaround. For years the Yankees struggled to produce even complementary players from within. There was Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang in 2005 and Brett Gardner in 2008, and not much else before the current crop of homegrown players. In 2014 the Yankees overhauled their player development system. Facilities were upgraded and personnel was changed, most notably Gary Denbo replacing longtime farm system head Mark Newman. We can never truly know how much of the farm system revival is the result of the changes that took place in 2014. My guess is basically all of it can be attributed to the overhaul. Things weren’t working out, things changed, things got better. Hooray for that.

February 12th, 2014: Derek Jeter To Retire After 2014

Legendary Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter announced today on his Facebook page that he will retire after the 2014 season (hat tip to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, whose colleague Mark Feinsand tweets that agent Casey Close has confirmed the retirement). Jeter, who turns 40 in June, re-signed with the Yankees — the only franchise he’s ever played for — earlier in the off-season.

Jeter’s announcement came as a surprise, even to the Yankees. I mean, yeah, it was not the most shocking thing in the world that a soon-to-be 40-year-old shortstop announced his impending retirement following an injury-plagued season the year before, but it was not set in stone. With Mariano Rivera, there were some pretty good indications he was ready to call it a career following the 2013 given what happened with his knee and everything in 2012. With Jeter, it kinda came out of nowhere.

The 2014 season was not Jeter’s best — he hit .256/.304/.313 (75 wRC+) with four homers in 634 plate appearances — but he did do this in his final Yankee Stadium at-bat, and this was pretty darn cool:

Not counting the 2009 World Series win, that’s arguably the best moment in new Yankee Stadium history, isn’t it? It’s either that, Rivera’s farewell, or Jeter’s 3,000th hit. I guess we could throw Didi Gregorius’ home run in the 2017 Wild Card Game and Alex Rodriguez’s game-tying home run against Joe Nathan in Game Two of the 2009 ALDS into the mix. This sport can be so great sometimes.

February 18th, 2014: Yankees Made Offer To Drew Earlier In Off-Season

The Yankees made an offer to free agent infielder Stephen Drew earlier in the off-season, believed to be for two or three years, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Nevertheless, the report indicates, the Yankees do not appear to be one of the four teams still pursuing the 30-year-old.

Yikes, I do not remember this. Drew eventually signed a one-year deal to return to the Red Sox in late-May. It was worth $10.2M, or the pro-rated portion of the $14.1M qualifying offer he rejected over the winter. We’ve seen top free agents wait very long to sign these last few years, even before these last two offseasons. Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales, and Yovani Gallardo all got stuck sitting in free agency until February and March (or later) in recent years. This isn’t a new phenomenon. It’s just more wide-spread.

Anyway, the Yankees were tentatively scheduled to go to into the 2014 season with Kelly Johnson at third, Derek Jeter at short, Brian Roberts at second, and Mark Teixeira at first. Eduardo Nunez was in the mix as well, though he lost his roster spot to Yangervis Solarte in Spring Training. The Yankees eventually traded Johnson for Drew at the deadline, then re-signed Drew the next year. If they offered him two years as this report says, they wound up with him for a year and a half.

February 23rd, 2014: Yankees Agree To Terms With Andrew Bailey

SATURDAY, 11:18pm: Bailey will earn a prorated base salary of $1.975MM if he works his way up to the Major League club, Olney reports. All told, the Major League side of the deal is valued at $2.5MM, and includes a 2015 option and buyout.

Once upon a time Bailey was a Rookie of the Year closer with the Athletics. He wound up with the Red Sox and made 49 appearances from 2012-13 (4.91 ERA and 4.68 FIP) before his shoulder gave out. The Yankees signed him and rehabbed him through numerous setbacks in 2014 and 2015, and then he allowed eight runs in 8.2 innings as a September call-up in 2015. My lasting memory of Bailey as a Yankee will be the three-run home run he gave up to Russell Martin …

… that closed the door on Yankees’ AL East title chances in late September. Dellin Betances was warmed up and ready to go in the bullpen, but Joe Girardi decided to stick with broken down Andrew Bailey, and there went any shot at the division. Signing injured pitchers on the cheap and rehabbing them is a smart move that doesn’t pay dividends all that often. So it goes.

February 24th, 2014: Yankees Extend Brett Gardner

Brett Gardner was positioned to be one of the top free agents in next year’s class, but he’s no longer on the market. The Yankees officially announced today that they have signed the Pro Star Management client to a four-year extension with a club option for a fifth season. Gardner’s new deal begins in the 2015 season and is reportedly worth $52MM. He receives a $2MM signing bonus and will earn $12MM in 2015, $13MM in 2016, $12MM in 2017 and $11MM in 2018. The 2019 club option is worth $12.5MM and contains a $2MM buyout.

Only four times this century have the Yankees signed a player in his arbitration years to a long-term extension: Derek Jeter in 2001 (ten years, $189M), Javy Vazquez in 2004 (four years, $45M), Robinson Cano in 2008 (four years, $30M), and Brett Gardner in 2014 (four years, $52M). All except Cano were entering their final season of team control. (The Yankees also signed CC Sabathia and Hideki Matsui to extensions, but those guys were veterans already working on free agent contracts.)

The Yankees have been stingy with long-term extensions and I thought the Gardner deal was an indication the way the team did business was going to change, but nope. To be fair, it’s only now that the Yankees have some young players worth extending. It sure would’ve been rad had they signed Didi Gregorius in, like, January 2016, but alas. The Gardner contract worked out quite well — that $52M bought them +14.2 WAR across four years — and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Yankees wait until Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, et al are a year away from free agency before extending them.

February 25th, 2014: Quick Hits: Santana, Billingsley, Tejada, Drew, Hanrahan, Diaz

Across town, the Yankees are keeping tabs on reliever Joel Hanrahan after inking another rehabbing former closer in Andrew Bailey, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. As Martino explains, interest in arms like Bailey and Hanrahan shows that the club has some concern with its pen depth.

The Red Sox made some really terrible reliever trades back in the day. They gave up Josh Reddick (and two others) to get Andrew Bailey, who stunk for them and got hurt. They also gave up Mark Melancon (and three others) to get Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan allowed eight runs in 7.1 innings with the Red Sox, all in 2013, and never pitched again. Wrecked his arm. The Tigers gave him a look in Spring Training in 2014 and 2015 but nothing came of it. Hanrahan was a two-time All-Star with a 2.24 ERA (3.24 FIP) from 2012-13. His career lasted 7.1 more innings. Brutal.

Mailbag: Depth Starters, Top Ten Yankees, Projected Roster

February 1, 2019 by Mike

Eleven questions in this week’s mailbag. One for each degree of temperature outside. Remember to send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Danny asks: Who is your favorite low-cost, one year starter left on the market? Liriano? Anderson? Shields? I looked at Shields’ numbers just for kicks and couldn’t believe he threw over 200 innings last year.

Francisco Liriano above all. He has experience starting and relieving, and has moved seamlessly between those roles the last few years. Liriano still misses bats and gets grounders. Not like he did during his prime, but enough to be a serviceable swingman at this point in his career. If not for the regime change this offseason, I’d say James Shields was ticketed for the Orioles. He seems like their type. Brett Anderson is never healthy. Signing him always sounds like a great idea until you actually sign him and he spends four months on the disabled list. Gio Gonzalez seems likely to get starting job somewhere rather than settle for a swingman role for the Yankees. I’d rank the veteran one-year free agents like so: Liriano, Gonzalez, Shields, Anderson. Ervin Santana has said he hates pitching in Yankee Stadium, so forget him, and Jeremy Hellickson and Clay Buchholz are great big mehs. Liriano’s my pick. He has the versatility, strikeouts, and grounders I want for that swingman/sixth starter role.

Keith asks: Good problem to have hypothetical: Let’s say that Tulo actually stays healthy and, come mid-season, is producing in the field and at the plate. Clint Frazier is mashing at AAA, forcing the issue as hoped, and Didi is due to return. With a 3 man bench, we can’t carry Gardner, Tulo, LeMahieu, and Romine. What do the Yankees do? Leave Clint languishing? Cut Gardner? Cut/trade Tulo?

In that case, the Yankees should dump the eighth reliever and go with a four-man bench. Put Didi Gregorius back at short and Clint Frazier in left, and move Troy Tulowitzki and Brett Gardner to the bench, where they’d join DJ LeMahieu and Austin Romine. Rotate guys in and out to keep everyone productive and involved. Enjoy the depth. If the Yankees must have an eight-man bullpen, I guess keeping Frazier in Triple-A is the easy solution, but I don’t like it. This is definitely one of those things that will work itself out. I am 100% certain the Yankees would welcome this “problem” at midseason.

Ralph indeed: The NY Post recently featured an article with all the writers providing their top 10 Yankees of all time in concert with the HOF voting. I was shocked to see that Thurman Munson was not listed on any ballot as an all time top 10 Yankee. Do you agree with this summation? My heart is outraged, but we think with our heads, so please provide some perspective. Thanks.

Here is that article. Six writers listed their personal top tens and 15 different players were mentioned. Munson was not one of the 15. Had Munson’s life and career not been tragically cut short — he died less than two months after his 32nd birthday — he stood a great chance of going down as a top ten Yankee all-time. The 1970s were the golden age for catchers (Johnny Bench, Ted Simmons, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, etc.) and Munson was right there with those guys. Rookie of the Year in 1970, MVP in 1976, World Series rings in 1977 and 1978, captain of the team, so on and so forth. I’m big on great catchers. I love ’em. Munson was before my time, but I reckon he would’ve gone down as my all-time favorite player given everything I’ve read and heard.

Here are the ten Yankees all-time according to WAR and my personal top list:

By WAR
1. Babe Ruth (+142.6)
2. Lou Gehrig (112.4)
3. Mickey Mantle (+110.3)
4. Joe DiMaggio (+78.2)
5. Derek Jeter (+72.4)
6. Yogi Berra (+59.5)
7. Mariano Rivera (+56.3)
8. Bill Dickey (+55.8)
9. Alex Rodriguez (+54.2)
10. Willie Randolph (+54.0)
…
18. Thurman Munson (+46.1)

Mike’s List
1. Babe Ruth
2. Mickey Mantle
3. Lou Gehrig
4. Derek Jeter
5. Joe DiMaggio
6. Mariano Rivera
7. Yogi Berra
8. Bill Dickey
9. Whitey Ford
10. Alex Rodriguez

Yes, Rivera is the Yankees all-time leader in pitching WAR, three wins ahead of Ford and five wins ahead of Andy Pettitte. And yes, I have Mantle over Gehrig. Mantle hit like Gehrig and did it as a center fielder. Both belong in the inner circle of the inner circle of the Hall of Fame either way. Longevity pushes Jeter over DiMaggio for me. (Jeter played 1,011 more games than Joe D. and DiMaggio missing three years to World War II doesn’t make up all of that.)

On the WAR list, Munson is still behind guys like Ford, Pettitte, Ron Guidry, and Bernie Williams. He’s right there with Robinson Cano (+45.5 WAR). Like I said, I dig great catchers, and I think I would’ve had Munson in the 11-13 range somewhere with Pettitte and Bernie on my list. I am surprised none of the six New York Post scribes squeezed him into their personal ton ten Yankees list. Leaving him out is not egregious though. Munson was great, but the Yankees have had so many great players. Guys like Pettitte and Bernie would be slam dunk top tens for most other teams.

Michael asks: Just read a couple of articles about the Yankee farm system and its prospects. Miguel Andujar wasn’t mentioned anywhere in any of them. What was Miggy’s background and how did he rise to the majors? How come everyone mentions Gleyber but no one mentions Miggy. What’s the deal here?

The Yankees signed Andujar as a 16-year-old shortstop in July 2011. They gave him a $750,000 bonus and moved him to third base right away. Andujar didn’t make it out of rookie ball until 2014 — early in his career he had a tendency to start slow at each new level before turning it on a half-season later — and it wasn’t until 2015 that he jumped into the prospect spotlight. Here’s where Baseball America (and I) ranked him among their top 30 Yankees prospects over the years:

2014: BA No. 18 and RAB No. 24
2015: BA No. 10 and RAB No. 7
2016: BA No. 12 and RAB No. 15
2017: BA No. 12 and RAB No. 8
2018: BA No. 5 and RAB No. 3

Not sure what I was thinking dropping Andujar from No. 7 in 2015 to No. 15 in 2016. Huh. Anyway, Andujar had a breakout year in 2016, hitting .271/.331/.403 (108 wRC+) with a career high 12 homers between High-A and Double-A. Then, in 2017, he hit .318/.364/.503 (135 wRC+) with 16 homers between Double-A and Triple-A, and started to get some top 100 prospect love.

Andujar never got as much attention as someone like Gleyber Torres because there were always questions about his defense, and also because it wasn’t clear how much power he’d have long-term. For a long time he looked like a line drive guy who might top out at 15-20 homers, which is good, but not top prospect good. Fast forward to last season and Andujar had 27 homers and 47 doubles as a rookie big leaguer, so he’s answered questions about his power potential. Miggy was the rare underrated Yankees prospect.

Benjamin asks: Thoughts on the 2001 AL Cy young award. Two names pop out, Roger Clemens (won), and Mike Mussina (5th). In your opinion, if this vote happened right now, would Roger still win? As far as I can see, Moose had the better stats in the AL, but didn’t have the magic W’s.

That 2001 season was Mussina’s best as a Yankee and probably the second best of his career, behind his 1992 season with the Orioles. Mussina led the league in FIP and WAR in 2001. Clemens led in winning percentage and that’s it. Here are the 2001 AL Cy Young voting results:

Rank	Name	Tm	Vote Pts	1st Place	WAR	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	ERA+
1	Roger Clemens	NYY	122.0	21	5.7	20	3	3.51	220.1	205	94	86	19	72	213	1.257	128
2	Mark Mulder	OAK	60.0	2	5.6	21	8	3.45	229.1	214	92	88	16	51	153	1.156	126
3	Freddy Garcia	SEA	55.0	4	4.2	18	6	3.05	238.2	199	88	81	16	69	163	1.123	135
4	Jamie Moyer	SEA	12.0	1	3.4	20	6	3.43	209.2	187	84	80	24	44	119	1.102	120
5	Mike Mussina	NYY	2.0	0	7.1	17	11	3.15	228.2	202	87	80	20	42	214	1.067	143
6	Tim Hudson	OAK	1.0	0	4.5	18	9	3.37	235.0	216	100	88	20	71	181	1.221	129

Yeah, I think if we held the 2001 Cy Young vote today, Mussina would indeed win. Among those six he had the best park-adjusted ERA, allowed baserunners at the lowest rate, was second in the league in strikeouts (Hideo Nomo had 220 strikeouts for the Red Sox), and led the league in WAR by more than a full win. I remember Clemens went 20-1 in his first 30 starts that year and, at the time, sitting on a 20-1 record that late in the season made you a Cy Young lock. Mussina threw 8.1 more innings than Clemens and allowed seven fewer runs and 33 fewer baserunners.

Brian asks: With unproductive final years of Texeira, A-Rod and (currently) Ellsbury contracts fresh in fans’ minds, the front office has fans right where they want us… many not clamoring for lengthy deals for Machado and Harper. You see right through that. Can you compare and contrast just the Ellsbury deal and why a Machado or Harper signing is advisable in spite of that debacle?

Come on. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are demonstrably better players than Jacoby Ellsbury was when the Yankee signed him. Ellsbury has batted at least 300 times in nine different seasons in his career, and in five of those nine seasons he was a below-average hitter after adjusting for ballpark. He had that truly excellent 2011 season that is so very clearly an outlier given the rest of his career. Only four times in his career has Ellsbury bested +2 WAR. Machado and Harper have done it six times each already. Also, the Yankees signed Ellsbury when he was 30. Machado and Harper are 26.

Had Robinson Cano signed a ten-year deal when he was 26, it would’ve just ended and it would’ve been a smashing success. Ellsbury has had one (1) season on par with what Machado and Harper have done multiple times in their career. The first A-Rod contract is the best historical comparison here. That prime-aged proven star-caliber producer. Not Ellsbury. He was never on their level outside that one season. The “oh no a long-term contract” hysteria has jumped the shark. Eventually some team will sign Harper and another team will sign Machado, and those teams will be very happy they did, and every other team will look silly for not trying harder to sign them. When you’re where the Yankees are on the win curve, you have to worry about now now and later later. The oceans will probably swallow us all whole before these deals go bad.

Emiliano asks: It is plausible to believe that Mariano could help Ottavino to improve his cutter like he did with Halladay or is it more about raw talent for the pitch?

It’s possible, sure. It won’t be easy and it’s not guaranteed to happen, but it is possible. Just remember there’s more that goes into throwing a certain pitch than the grip. You need a certain level of laxity in your wrist to throw a curveball, for example. Pedro Martinez had such big hands and long fingers that he could really smother the ball when he threw a changeup. Not any pitchers could throw a changeup like Pedro. Rivera’s cutter was the result of a lot of things. The grip, his finger pressure, his arm action, etc. Adam Ottavino might not be able to replicate those things. Roy Halladay and David Robertson were able to after consulting with Rivera about his cutter, at least to some extent, so it is possible. My guess is there are more failure stories than success stories here.

Michael asks: It appears that the Yankees 25 man roster will have the greatest range in jersey numbers possible this year at 99 (Ottavino at 0, Judge at 99). What was the greatest range in numbers previously?

Ottavino and Aaron Judge have to be the largest spread in history, right? I doesn’t get any wider than 0-99, unless 00 is somehow lower than 0, or they go to triple digits at some point. Looking over the all-time numbers quick, these appear to be the largest spreads in Yankees history going into 2019:

98 (Billy Martin No. 1 and Charlie Keller No. 99 in 1952)
97 (Derek Jeter No. 2 and Brian Bruney No. 99 in 2009)
89 (Derek Jeter No. 2 and Al Aceves No. 91 from 2008-10, 2014)
86 (Derek Jeter No. 2 and Josh Outman No. 88 in 2014)
86 (Derek Jeter No. 2 and Ryan Thompson No. 88 in 2000)

Keller played for the Yankees from 1939-49 and wore several different numbers. It wasn’t until he returned in 1952 that he wore No. 99. Keller had one plate appearance for the Yankees that year and Martin was the starting second baseman. Those two were atop the list for 67 years before Ottavino and Judge came along.

Luis Cessa (No. 85) is the only other Yankee to ever wear a number higher than 77, and he never played with Jeter. The lowest number he’s ever played with is No. 11 (Brett Gardner). Ottavino and Judge will sit atop this list until the end of time. Put them on top, move everyone down a spot, then Ottavino and Cessa slot in at seventh place with a spread of 85, assuming Cessa remains with the Yankees and wears the same number.

Brian asks: Would you rather Freddy Galvis 1 year 5 million or Tulo 1 year $500k?

Galvis. The Yankees are over the luxury tax threshold, so the money is largely inconsequential at this point, and I think Galvis will be the better player this season. At the very least, you can bank on him being a very good defensive shortstop. He also has a chance to pop 15+ homers. I don’t know if Troy Tulowitzki can do either of those things. I get that he’s basically free and no risk, and the Yankees do have a good backup plan in DJ LeMahieu (with Gleyber Torres sliding to short), but I think Galvis is the better player and more likely to help the Yankees win games this season. Shrug.

Zack asks: Given the way this free agency period is going, what do you think the chances are that Harper or Machado take a 3 year super high AAV (40+MM/year) deal that would expire a) before they turn 30, and b) after the current CBA expires which might result in teams being more willing to spend?

I just can’t see it. If they’re willing to take a short-term contract, I think the more likely scenario is a five or six-year deal with an opt-out after year three. That allows them to hit free agency again at age 29 and right before the new Collective Bargaining Agreement takes effect, and also gives them a little insurance policy on the back-end in case things go wrong. A five or six-year deal with an opt-out after three years seems more likely to me than a straight three-year contract. Part of me wonders if Harper’s and Machado’s agents would push for an irregular opt-out date, say January 1st so they can better gauge the market and the impact of the new CBA. The CBA expires December 1st and the opt-out decision would normally be due in early November. Pushing the opt-out deadline back to January 1st — or even December 1st for that matter — would put them in better position to make an informed decision. We’ll see.

Mark asks: What is your projected 25 man roster? 3 or 4 bench players? I feel like if everyone is healthy, it ends up being 4 bench players. You can’t really make Ellsbury do a 2 year rehabilitation stint…. can you?

A few weeks ago Brian Cashman said Jacoby Ellsbury is still questionable for Opening Day. Ellsbury had his hip surgery on August 6th and the Yankees announced a six-month recovery time. That puts him on track to return in February. It is a major surgery though, and let’s be frank here, Ellsbury is not the quickest healer. His disabled list stints always last a little longer than expected. He’s not an Opening Day consideration until we see him on the field and healthy. This is my projected 25-man roster:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	Luis Severino	CL Aroldis Chapman
	2B Gleyber Torres	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	SU Dellin Betances
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	RF Aaron Judge	Masahiro Tanaka	SU Zach Britton
	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	J.A. Happ	SU Adam Ottavino
DISABLED LIST			CC Sabathia	MR Chad Green
Didi Gregorius	BENCH			MR Jonathan Holder
Jordan Montgomery	C Austin Romine	???		MR Tommy Kahnle
Jacoby Ellsbury	IF DJ LeMahieu			LG Luis Cessa

The Opening Day rotation order is whatever. No need to sweat it right now. I said earlier this week I expect Kahnle and Cessa to get the final two bullpen spots, which is why I have them in the table. Everything else is pretty straightforward. That last bench spot is the only mystery at this point. If Ellsbury is healthy, I imagine it’ll go to him. If not, it could be Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, or Tyler Wade. Those are really the only options, right? I’d be surprised if Thairo Estrada, Gio Urshela, or Billy Burns forced their way into an Opening Day. The best candidate for that open bench spot? Gardner. Sign Bryce Harper and move Gardner to the bench. Do it, Yankees. Deep down, you know you want to.