NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Fan Confidence Poll: November 26th, 2018

November 26, 2018 by Mike

2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS

The Warriors of Baseball

November 25, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

This is not, I’m sorry to say, Paul O’Neill fans, a post about the Yankees making themselves in number 21’s image. This is not a post about the Yankees being gritty and gutty and all those other things. This is about taking a cue from a team 2,906 miles away that has been dominating its sport for years, and shows few signs of stopping.

I’d love to see the Yankees build a superteam this offseason just to see how that plays out over 162 games. Very intriguing and obviously risky but that would be something special for baseball. Becoming the Golden State Warriors of baseball should be Hal’s priority right now.

— Yankeesource (@YankeeSource) November 23, 2018

There are obvious differences between the situations in the Bay Area and the Bronx. The former plays in a salary cap league whereas the latter doesn’t, though the luxury tax is certainly acting as a de facto tax for most teams. Additionally, individual basketball players have a much bigger impact on the team than individual baseball players do, generally speaking. The playoffs in which the Warriors play are also a lot more predictable than baseball ones. But the Yankees could take a page from the Warriors’ playbook in pushing themselves over the edge to championship territory.

In Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson, the Warriors drafted and developed three great core players and built around them with trades and signings, including grabbing Kevin Durant, a top-3 player in the NBA. Could they have won and kept winning without him? Probably, but why risk it? You could argue the Yankees did something similar in developing talent like Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge, and (partially) Gleyber Torres. You wouldn’t be wrong. You could even make the KD analogy with the Yankees having acquired Giancarlo Stanton about a year ago. But as we’ve established, baseball isn’t basketball and sometimes, one big ticket item isn’t enough. The Yankees need to go out and get more. The Yankees can go out and get more.

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are as close to the caliber of Kevin Durant as a free agent in 2018-19 could be. Grabbing one of them would probably be enough, but why should the Yankees stop there? Grab them both. Grab, as Bob said yesterday, Patrick Corbin. Trade for Corey Kluber. Add on to trading for James Paxton. Becoming a super team in baseball doesn’t guarantee anything–just look at the Phillies with their rotation from a few years ago–but it certainly helps.

The Yankees have the resources to become the Warriors of MLB and the only thing holding them back is their own will, or lack thereof. Bronx brass–Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman–aren’t wrong when they say that you don’t need a $200M+ payroll to win. But there are no points for “efficiency.” You don’t get a boost for winning with a low $/WAR or anything like that. The biggest advantage the Yankees have is their financial might and they should flex it at every turn, especially in free agency when the free agents available are so talented and so fit the Yankees–and any team’s–needs. Choosing not to do so is like trying to hit a pinata blindfolded and swinging a cardboard tube instead of a bat or stick. The game is hard enough as it is; why sacrifice something else to make it harder on yourself?

The Yankees Should Sign Patrick Corbin

November 24, 2018 by Bobby Montano

The Yankees made the first big splash of the 2019 offseason last week with the acquisition of the excellent James Paxton. The move instantly made the Yankees a more talented team, and there is a decent argument to be made that Paxton will be the best available pitcher of the offseason. But the Yanks still only have four starters, so they are not done yet—and Brian Cashman now has a chance to build one of the game’s dominant rotations by signing Patrick Corbin.

Corbin, a native New Yorker, has always seemed excited about the opportunity to play in the Bronx. Better yet, he is clearly the best available arm on the free agent market. The 29-year-old lefty represents the Yankees best chance in years to boast a rotation free of major concerns and question marks, and the Yankees should not let this opportunity pass them by.

Mike did a deep dive into Corbin’s profile back at the beginning of the offseason that you should check out, but a few things are worth exploring again.

First, Corbin is fresh off of what is likely the best year of his career. Across 200 innings, he posted a 3.15 ERA (2.47 FIP/137 ERA+) with excellent peripherals, striking out over 30 percent of batters faced, walking only 6 percent and inducing a ground ball nearly half of the time. Even though Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference quantify his season a bit differently (6.3 fWAR versus 4.6 bWAR), the fact remains that Corbin was a pitcher with few peers in 2018.

He was able to take that leap thanks to a sudden improvement against right-handed batters and noticeable drop in home run rate. He also added a curveball to his arsenal, which includes two fastball variations, a changeup and one of baseball’s best sliders. Perhaps the addition of the curveball—which he threw about 9 percent of the time in 2018, meaning roughly 50 percent of his pitches thrown were either slider or curve—helped him take the next step.

But even if Corbin slightly regresses to his pre-2018 production, he would be a smart signing for the Yankees. There are minimal injury concerns with Corbin (he had Tommy John in 2014, but has otherwise been fully healthy) and he has had considerable success outside of 2018, posting a 113 ERA+ in 208.1 innings in 2013, a 115 ERA+ in 85 post-surgery innings in 2015 and a 116 ERA+ across 189.2 frames in 2017. He did have a down year in 2016 (87 ERA+), but that seems more and more to be an outlier. Moreover, his dependability would be a nice insurance policy against the more fragile James Paxton in the Yankee rotation.

Corbin’s peripherals again suggest that he is a worthy investment. In 945 career innings, Corbin has posted a 48.9 percent ground ball rate compared to a 27 percent flyball rate, whiffing about 22 percent of batters faced and walking around 7 percent. His ability to limit hard contact (only a third of batted balls against him are considered “hard contact” and his line drive percentage is closer to a fourth), miss bats and keep the ball on the ground bode well for his future—even if his home run rate would be expected to climb in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

In other words, Corbin is a rare pitcher. Lefties who miss bats as he does are rarely available because they are so valuable, and his dependable track record of above-average innings means that there is much more here than a one-hit wonder. That is why Steamer, one of Fangraph’s projection tools, expects Corbin to post a 3 to 4 win season in 2019 across 197 innings.

There are other, cheaper options (expect Corbin to command a deal worth roughly 5 years and $100 million) on the market, namely J.A. Happ, but those options are cheaper simply because they’re not as good. And when you’re in the Yankees position—swimming in cash with a roster as talented as any in baseball—there is simply no excuse to pinch pennies when addressing the team’s biggest weakness. Adding both Corbin and Paxton would make the Yankees staff, which was already among the most effective in the league but not quite good enough, clearly one of the best in baseball.

The Yankees have long been searching for top-of-the-rotation talent to complement homegrown ace Luis Severino: in 2018, they started Sonny Gray, Domingo German, Jonathan Holder, Lance Lynn or Luis Cessa in 52 games. The Yankees added Paxton to help plug that hole, but they’ll need one more arm—and there’s nobody better suited to do so than Patrick Corbin.

Hot Stove Notes: Corbin, Kluber, Eovaldi, Ottavino, Segura

November 21, 2018 by Mike

The offseason is barely more than three weeks old and already the Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner, re-signed CC Sabathia, and traded for James Paxton. They still need another starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen depth. Still lots to do. “I can’t predict what’s going to happen as we move forward, other than the fact that we need to fill some needs,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera following the Paxton trade. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees remain interested in Corbin, Happ, Kluber

Even after the Paxton trade, the Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi. Also, Andy Martino adds the Yankees are still in touch with the Indians about Corey Kluber, but the asking price is quite high. I can’t see a Kluber (or Carlos Carrasco) deal going down now that Justus Sheffield has been traded. Not unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, plus other prospects.

As for Corbin and Happ, they’re both good to great rotation options at different ends of the projected contract spectrum. Happ turned 36 last month and is looking at a short-term deal at $10M to $15M annually, I imagine. Corbin is only 29 and is close to a lock to get nine figures. I prefer Corbin despite the price tag. He’s younger than Happ and I think he’ll be the better pitcher in 2019 and beyond. Happ’s not an unreasonable option on a short-term deal though. I prefer Corbin but either would work.

Yankees not among earlier suitors for Eovaldi

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest in free agent righty Nathan Eovaldi early this offseason. Cafardo listed nine teams with interest, including contenders like the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox. This past season, his first since his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 22.2% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 111 total innings.

It is inevitable that Eovaldi, 29 in February, will get overrated this offseason after what he did to the Yankees this year (six runs in 23.1 innings) and his stellar postseason (1.61 ERA and 2.71 FIP). It’s already happening, really. But man, I am a hard pass here. For starters, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery guy whose entire game is built on throwing the ball really freaking hard. And secondly, I am extremely skeptical of the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” demographic. Nate’s a good dude and I hope he gets paid. Just not by the Yankees.

Yankees have discussed Kikuchi

From the no duh department: The Yankees have internally discussed Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who will be posted this offseason, reports David Lennon. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year,” said Hal Steinbrenner at the owners meetings last week. Not a ringing endorsement, but whatever.

Kikuchi, 27, is one of the top starters in Japan. He threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 153 strikeouts this past season. Here’s a scouting report. Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras and, from what I understand, he’s already come to the United States and taken a physical so teams can review his medicals in advance. That’s standard practice. That way the two sides don’t have to squeeze in a physical before the signing deadline. Kikuchi has not yet been posted. It can’t happen any later than December 5th. I don’t know much about him beyond what I’ve shared here so I don’t have a strong opinion about the guy. The Yankees do need another starter though. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Ottavino

The Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, Cashman said to Joel Sherman, and Sherman says they have interest in free agent Adam Ottavino. The two relievers thing makes sense with David Robertson and Zach Britton becoming free agents. Robertson is representing himself and, for what it’s worth, he told Bryan Hoch he’s been in contact with the Yankees and would like to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Agenting 101: When negotiating with the Yankees, indicate you’re willing to sign with the Red Sox. Robertson’s a quick learner.

As for the Ottavino, the Brooklyn native had a ridiculous season with the Rockies, throwing 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts. A few too many walks (11.7%) though. He turns 33 tomorrow. Ottavino has had some injury issues and it’s been a while since he was that good in a full season, but he has done it before. He’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. My preferred bullpen target this offseason is Robertson. Just re-sign him already. It makes too much sense. The Yankees want two relievers though, so maybe they’ll find room in the budget for Robertson and Ottavino. Would be cool. Not holding my breath though.

Yankees, Mariners talked Segura

Now this is fun. According to Morosi, the Yankees asked about Jean Segura during Paxton trade talks with the Mariners. Obviously this is in response to Gregorius’ injury. Seattle is tearing things down and Segura, who is still somehow only 28, is one of their top trade chips as a quality two-way shortstop on an affordable contract (owed $60.4M from 2019-22). Ultimately, the Yankees decided to move forward with the Paxton only trade. I guess the asking price for Segura was too high.

This past season Segura hit .304/.341/.415 (111 wRC+) with ten homers and 20 steals, and, over the last three years, he’s put up a .308/.353/.449 (117 wRC+) line in almost 2,000 plate appearances. Between his offense and defense, he’s a reliable +4 WAR player right now. The Yankees could’ve put Segura at short until Gregorius returned, then used those two on the middle infield, Torres at third, and Andujar at first base or in left field. Or maybe the Yankees would let Gregorius walk as a free agent and use Segura as their everyday shortstop. Perhaps the two sides will revisit trade talks later in the offseason.

Yankees acquire utility man Tim Locastro from Dodgers

November 21, 2018 by Mike

In a minor trade, the Yankees have acquired utility man Tim Locastro from the Dodgers for minor league righty Drew Finley and cash considerations, the team announced. Los Angeles designated Locastro for assignment yesterday as part of their Rule 5 Draft protection deadline 40-man roster cleanup. The Yankees now have a full 40-man roster.

Locastro, 26, is a native New Yorker from Auburn. The former 13th round pick hit .279/.389/.409 (118 wRC+) with four homers, 18 steals, 14.6% strikeouts, and 7.4% walks in 83 Triple-A games this season. The right-handed hitter has a knack for getting hit by pitches. He averages — averages — 39 hit-by-pitches per 150 games in his career. Huh.

After starting his pro career as a middle infielder, Locastro is now a true utility guy with experience at every position except third base, right field, pitcher, and catcher. Supposedly he’s better in the outfield than on the infield. Locastro’s best tool is his speed. The dude can really run. He’s gone 2-for-12 (.167) in 21 career big league games.

The Yankees are currently stockpiling utility types with Didi Gregorius expected to miss the start of next year. They claimed Hanser Alberto off waivers and re-signed Gio Urshela. And don’t forget Tyler Wade and Ronald Torreyes. Now they’ve added Locastro, who has two minor league options remaining and figures to be an up-and-down guy.

Finley, 22, was the Yankees’ third round pick in 2015. He’s been dogged by injuries throughout his career and has a 5.47 ERA (5.37 FIP) in 120 minor league innings, all in short season leagues. Finley’s father David is the Dodgers vice president of international and amateur scouting. I imagine he had some input into the trade.

RAB Live Chat

November 21, 2018 by Mike

The Up & Down Depth Arms [2018 Season Review]

November 21, 2018 by Mike

Here’s where the game of baseball is these days: The Yankees used 26 different pitchers this year, the eighth most in franchise history. That is also the fifth fewest pitchers used by any team this season. The Blue Jays led the way with 36 different pitchers in 2018. The Rockies used only 21 different pitchers, the fewest in baseball, if you can believe that. Wild.

Two of those 26 pitchers to wear pinstripes in 2018 were shuttle veteran Luis Cessa and newcomer Jonathan Loaisiga. Both went up-and-down this year — Cessa moreso than Loaisiga — but they held different roles. Cessa was the quintessential spot starter. Call him up, start him, send him down. Loaisiga had a somewhat extended run in the rotation. They finished with similar numbers (5.24 ERA/3.74 FIP vs. 5.11 ERA/3.53 FIP). Let’s review their seasons.

Luis Cessa

Cessa’s third year as an up-and-down depth arm featured eight (!) separate call-ups — four times he was called up to make a spot start or long relief appearance and sent down the next day — and 44.2 innings with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) spread across five starts and eleven relief appearances. He also missed two months with an oblique injury and threw 26.1 innings with a 2.73 ERA (2.38 FIP) with Triple-A Scranton. Typical Luis Cessa stuff, basically.

The Good: Cessa started the season with two 1-2-3 inning short relief appearances, during which he struck out three of six batters faced. He also strung together back-to-back good starts against the Orioles (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) and Rays (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) in July.

Also, Cessa had a nice little run as a multi-inning mop-up guy late in the season. He even recorded his first career save when he threw the final three innings of a blowout win over the O’s on August 25th. From August 25th through September 29th, Cessa made six appearances and threw three innings in five of them, and posted a 3.18 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Opponents hit .250/.271/.382 against him. That’ll work.

The Bad: Pretty much everything else. The Red Sox hung five runs on Cessa in 3.2 innings on August 2nd. Next time out the Rays punished him for five runs in 3.1 innings. And, on the final day of the regular season, Cessa allowed four runs in one-third of an inning and left the game with a hip injury after he stumbled covering first base. Fourteen of the 27 runs he allowed this year came in those three games. That’s 52% of his runs in 16% of his innings.

The Future: This past season was Cessa’s final minor league option year, which means he has to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A going forward. This is not a good place to be, out of options and unestablished at the MLB level. I like Cessa more than most and I wish the Yankees would just stick him in short relief. The velocity is good and his slider has a comfortably above-average swing-and-miss rate. Stick him in the bullpen and see what happens when he airs it out for an inning at a time, you know?

Cessa will turn 27 in April and he did keep his 40-man roster spot through yesterday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, but that is hardly a guarantee he will make it through the offseason. The Yankees could cast him aside to clear 40-man space in the coming weeks. For now, Cessa remains in the organization, and since he’s out of options, he’ll get a chance to win the proverbial last guy in the bullpen spot come Spring Training until further notice.

Jonathan Loaisiga

What a rise for Johnny Lasagna. At this time last year he was intriguing lower level arm who’d just returned from Tommy John surgery and had thrown 103.2 innings in his career, only 2.1 of which were above the short season leagues. Loaisiga was mentioned as a sleeper and the Yankees liked him enough to put him on the 40-man roster despite the injuries and inexperience. After four dominant starts with High-A Tampa (1.35 ERA and 1.18 FIP) and six okay starts with Double-A Trenton (4.32 ERA and 3.33 FIP) this year, he was in the big leagues. Crazy.

The Yankees were of course extremely careful with Loaisiga while in the minors. He has a long injury history and hadn’t thrown many innings in his career, so he made almost every minor league start with six days rest this year. Loaisiga was a once a week starter, basically. Also, in his ten minor league starts before being called up, he never threw more than five innings or 89 pitches. The Yankees treated him with kid gloves. That didn’t stop them from calling him up.

“He’s really talented, we think he has a very bright future. His stuff is really good. He’s a guy that pounds the strike zone,” said Aaron Boone. “Just getting to know him a little bit this spring, we don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed pitching here at Yankee Stadium in the big leagues. We feel like his repertoire, his stuff will allow him to have a chance to be successful for us.”

A promising four-start cameo — Loaisiga replaced Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation after Tanaka pulled both hamstrings running the bases — and a pretty crummy September bullpen stint gave Loaisiga a 5.11 ERA (3.53 FIP) with 33 strikeouts and 12 walks in 24.2 big league innings this year. It was a 3.00 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 18 innings as a starter and a 10.80 ERA (5.26 FIP) in 6.2 innings as a reliever.

The Good: In his big league debut Loaisiga struck out six in five scoreless innings against the Rays on June 15th. He looked poised and his fastball topped out at 97.7 mph, which was pleasantly surprising. Loaisiga’s best start was his third start. He tossed five no-hit innings in Philadelphia before giving up a sixth inning leadoff single to Jorge Alfaro. His night ended with that one hit allowed in 5.1 scoreless innings. He struck out eight.

In September, Loaisiga struck out four in two scoreless innings in Oakland on September 3rd. I was hoping he’d emerge as a multi-inning relief weapon in those final few weeks of the regular season — a higher end version of Adam Warren, basically — but it didn’t happen. Two very good starts and one nice two-inning relief appearances were the highlights of Loaisiga’s big league debut.

In terms of stuff, man did the kid show the goods. Loaisiga’s fastball averaged 95.9 mph. His breaking ball averaged 84.6 mph. His changeup averaged 88.2 mph. Everything he throws is hard. Also, Loaisiga’s average spin rates are quite good:

Fastball: 2,341 rpm (MLB average: 2,263 rpm)
Breaking ball: 2,648 rpm (MLB average: 2,434 rpm)
Changeup: 1,720 rpm (MLB average: 1,774 rpm)

The higher the spin, the better on fastballs and breaking balls. For changeups, lower spin is better. (Low spin is okay on fastballs too. You don’t want average spin on heaters though. High or low, nothing in between.) Loaisiga showed three legitimate Major League pitches in his brief time with the Yankees and he got swings and misses with everything. The kid also seemed very composed on the mound. Innings rarely spiraled out of control.

The Bad: In two of his big league starts, Loaisiga needed 84 pitches to allow three runs in 3.2 innings against the Mariners and 92 pitches to allow three runs in four innings against the Braves. Also, he got hit pretty hard in September. I’m talking eleven runs (eight earned) in four appearances and 4.2 innings after those two innings in Oakland. That included a six-run, 1.1-inning disaster against the Twins on September 11th. Ouch.

To me, Loaisiga’s struggles looked more like a young and inexperienced pitcher learning the ropes than anything. I didn’t see a flaw in his stuff. He executed some good fastballs and breaking balls off the plate, pitches hitters probably chase in the minors, and big leaguers didn’t bite. Considering his relative lack of minor league experience, it is not at all surprising Loaisiga was inefficient and a little lost at times. He’ll get better with time.

The Future: Loaisiga turned 24 earlier this month and he made it clear this season he has big league potential. The stuff is there and the composure was there. He’s a little green, which is to be expected. I definitely think Loaisiga has the stuff and command to start long-term. I just have no idea whether he’ll stay healthy. The injury history is ugly. Shoulder and elbow problems. He even missed time with shoulder fatigue after being sent back down this summer.

The range of potential outcomes for 2019 Loaisiga seem awfully large. I wouldn’t be surprised if he blows out his arm and misses the season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he throws 150-ish innings with a mid-3.00s ERA. The talent is there, unquestionably. Can he still healthy? Does all the missed time earlier in his career hold him back? Loaisiga has never pitched in Triple-A. Not one single pitch. I imagine he’ll spend most of next season there.

To me, Loaisiga seems like an excellent candidate for an opener. By that I mean a reliever starts the game, faces the top of the lineup, then turns it over to Loaisiga for four or five innings. That might be the best way to use him next year. Then, once he gets a little more comfortable and gains a little more experience, the Yankees will hopefully be able to turn him loose as a full-fledged starter. The little bit we saw this year was promising though. It was a remarkable rise from relative unknown to big leaguer for Johnny Lasagna in 2018.