I was thinking aloud on this one this morning, so I thought I’d bring it to you guys for a public review. Keep in mind that this is a best case scenario. It’s assuming that no one completely bombs or gets injured for more than two weeks or so. So let’s break this down:

Andy & CMW: 33 or 34 — so we’ll say Andy with 33 and CMW with 34.
Mussina: 28 — could be more if he’s effective, but he does have a tendency to wear down.
IPK: 28 — at 7 innings a start, that brings him to 196, right around his projected goal number.
Hughes: 22 — at 7 innings a pop, he’d be at 154, or right around his goal.
Joba: 8 — could be 10, could be none.

Add ‘em all up, and we’re looking at 153 starts, so that’s nine that have to be filled by the likes of Igawa, Karstens, Rasner, Wright, White, Marquez, and Horne. Not too shabby.

Of course, there are a couple of further caveats to the above list, foremost being Joba. Going back to the 2003 Johan Santana parallel, he could make as many as 18 starts, but I think the Yanks will use him a bit more liberally out of the pen early on than the Twins did, and will transition him to starting later on. As I’ve said, even if he opens in the pen, the team would be wise to give him a spot start in each of the season’s first three months, so he’s not completely unused to starting.

Hughes is a tough call. He threw 146 innings in 2006, so he could probably go decently over the 150 cap we’re hearing about. I probably wouldn’t go more than 160 with him in any event, though 165, 170 shouldn’t be out of the question.

And, of course, Mussina’s 28 starts depend wholly on his effectiveness. Hell, if he could hit 30 starts, that would be amazing. Even at a 4.40 or 4.50 ERA, he could carry value.

Playoffs are another concern. This is why I see the Yanks keeping Hughes to around 145 innings during the regular season. It’s also why I don’t see Joba making more than eight starts, 10 tops. They want these guys to be able to pitch in the playoffs. This is why Mussina is that much more important. If he can eat 30 starts, he takes the pressure off the younger guys, allowing the Yanks to free up innings for playoff time.

Then again, in this year’s AL, the playoffs aren’t any kind of guarantee. The Yanks will be fighting with Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, and Seattle for four spots. And even then you don’t know if a dark horse like the Rangers will emerge as competitive.

The overall message, though, is to not listen to the mainstream media. The Yanks look fine in terms of starters as of this moment. If something changes along the way, I’m sure we’ll discuss it. But it need not be met with panic.

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Everyone breath a sign of relief. Take in that nice, big gulp of air and let it out slowly. According to Hank Steinbrenner, the Yankees will not at all be trading anyone approaching the quality of Phil Hughes for Dan Haren.

Phew. Once again, we here at RAB look good.

In a press conference following the Yankees’ decision to drop out of the Johan Santana farce sweepstakes, Hank was pretty clear in expressing the Yanks’ views on Haren and A’s GM Billy Beane’s demand for his overvalued pitcher. Newsday’s Kat O’Brien reports:

As for Haren, a 27-year-old righthander who was 15-9 with a 3.07 ERA this season, Steinbrenner stomped on the idea of the Yankees acquiring him. Oakland general manager Billy Beane has told teams he would need to be blown away to deal Haren. He would want a similar haul from the Yankees as the Twins asked for in exchange for Santana.

Steinbrenner called that price “ridiculous” and vowed: “It won’t happen, not with us.”

While Hank has come under some criticism for possibly saying too much too often, this is music to my ears. Haren, as I wrote yesterday, comes with a little too much hype and just one season of clear-cut, top-notch pitching. Until he duplicates his 2007 numbers, Haren shouldn’t be considered an ace, and he’s definitely not worth any combination of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy or Austin Jackson (as Rotoworld speculates the A’s would demand).

Sanity reigns supreme with this one, and this measure of common sense assuages my fears that if the Red Sox land Santana — and it’s far from the done deal — that the Yankees would respond by grossly overpaying for Haren.

Meanwhile, if you want to love Phil Hughes more than you do now, read this tidbit from PeteAbe. Phil knows he has the backing of the fan base. I wonder if he’s talking about us and those t-shirts.

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Yesterday, we made our position clear: Save The Big Three. This was met with varying responses, most of which disagreed to one extent or another. It seems that most Yanks fans — surprise surprise — would like to see Johan Santana in pinstripes. Hell, count me among ‘em. My problem is that I don’t want to see the Yankees dish any of the Big Three to get him, in which case a deal wouldn’t happen.

Now, before anyone else says, “You’d be an idiot not to trade IPK for Santana,” let’s be clear about something. A package centered around Ian Patrick Kennedy will not land Johan Santana. Period. Maybe before yesterday, when Matt Garza was still a Twin, there was an inkling of a chance the Yanks could pull off such a deal. Any chance that existed (probably none) is now gone. If the Yanks want Santana, it’s going to cost Joba or Hughes. If IPK is in the deal, it will be in addition to one of those two. This is why we need to save IPK.

When asked to choose which of the other two to dish, it appears the consensus is Hughes. I get that. The only knock on Joba before the season was his injury risk, but after he showed up to camp a bit lighter and after having a relatively healthy season (except when he caught the hamstring strain bug from Wang), he has quelled some of those concerns. At least relatively speaking, as we found out that Hughes, the invincible No. 1 pitching prospect in the game headed into the season (I’m not counting Dice-K), is also susceptible to injuries. Who knew?

So we’re talking Hughes and more for Santana. Jutting off on a tangent for a second, I would think that the Twins, given their recent transaction, would be looking for Horne and Austin Jackson, at least. With the acquisition of Jason Pridie, the immediate need for a center fielder is lessened. He’s not a world beater, but he can fill in adequately while the Twins wait on someone like Ajax. The Twins could still have interest in Melky, but I think that given the situation, we can leave him out of the conversation until we hear otherwise. And who knows: Maybe they want Tabata in the deal, too, instead of Horne — or on top of Horne. That changes the story, but for now let’s stick to Phil and Johan.

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Our first Baseball-Reference sponsorship is none other than Ian Patrick Kennedy.

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On that date, I first referred to Ian Kennedy as IPK.

Fast forward 4 months and you’ll see that blogging juggernauts Peter Abraham and No Maas have begun to freely use the moniker.

I’m not looking to gloat or anything like that, I just think it’s pretty cool that it’s spread like it has, and hopefully I get a tiny bit of credit for it somewhere down the line.

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Haven’t seen any confirmation, but Karl Ravech just said on Baseball Tonight that IPK will make Moose’s next start. More as I find it…

Update by Ben (11:14 p.m.): Dan Graziano and Ed Price of The Star-Ledger have your confirmation right here. No word on the corresponding 40-man move yet.

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The Star-Ledger had a good piece on our two favorite young hurlers in the Yankee organization yesterday. That article comes highly recommended. Hat tip to, um, well, Mike.

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