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Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

The Yankees still have some things to accomplish even after clinching a postseason spot

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(Presswire)

Saturday night, the Yankees clinched a spot in the 2018 postseason with a thrilling walk-off win against Orioles. Well, maybe thrilling isn’t the best way to put it. The game was pretty dull up until Aaron Hicks yanked his walk-off double into the right field corner in the 11th inning. That was fun. The rest of the game? Meh.

Anyway, the Yankees are indeed going back to the postseason. They’re locked into the Wild Card Game because the Red Sox have already clinched the AL East title, so that’s a bummer, but at least the Yankees are in. Get into the postseason and you can win the World Series. The Yankees will be one of the final ten teams standing. That’s pretty cool.

Now, just because the Yankees are locked into the Wild Card Game, it doesn’t mean they can coast during this final week of the regular season. Well, they could, but I wouldn’t advise it. There are still some things to accomplish and some boxes to check this week. Here are five.

Clinch homefield advantage

Fun fact: The home team is 5-7 in the Wild Card Game all-time. That said, I can’t imagine any fan wants their team to play on the road in the Wild Card Game. Teams are built for their home ballparks and few teams are built as well for their home ballpark as the Yankees. The home/record records:

Yankees at home: 53-28 (+101 run differential)
Yankees on the road: 43-32 (+64 run differential)

Athletics at home: 50-31 (+59 run differential)
Athletics on the road: 45-31 (+77 run differential)

The Yankees are a good team on the road and a great team at home. And the 2018 Athletics are not the 2017 Twins. The Twins sold at the trade deadline last year and still made the postseason because the rest of the American League stunk. They made the postseason by default. This year’s Athletics are an excellent team and no pushover. The Yankees will need as much help as they can get in that Wild Card Game, and that includes the short porch and the Yankee Stadium crowd. The magic number for homefield advantage is four.

(Also, clinching homefield advantage means avoiding a brutal travel schedule. If the Wild Card Game is in Oakland, the Yankees have have to travel from Boston to Oakland after the end of the regular season, then potentially go right back to Boston if they advance to the ALDS. Making a round trip cross country to play one game? No. Just no.)

Pick a Wild Card Game starter

The Yankees are in a good spot when it comes to picking a starting pitcher for next Wednesday’s Wild Card Game. They have three good candidates in J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, and Masahiro Tanaka. I would much rather have one great candidate like first half Severino than three good candidates, but I can’t complain. I’ll feel pretty good — as good as you can feel in that situation, anyway — no matter who gets the ball.

“We will pick whoever is best qualified at that time, regardless of the following series,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera over the weekend when asked about the Wild Card Game starter. “It’s all hands on deck for that one game, to find a way to survive it … Whatever is in our best interest, we’ll try to do.”

Two weeks ago RAB readers said Tanaka should start the Wild Card Game. Happ would be a fine choice as well. Severino? If he continues to pitch like he did last time out, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to give the ball to someone else. Whoever it ends up being, the Yankees have to make a decision reasonably soon, and get that pitcher lined up on however many days rest (normal rest? an extra day?) this week.

Get Judge at-bats and Chapman innings

In seven games back in the starting lineup, Judge is 4-for-22 (.182) with six walks (.357 OBP) with seven strikeouts. The plate discipline is still there — the loss makes it easy to forget, but Judge’s ten-pitch battle against Eduardo Rodriguez that turned an 0-2 count into a walk before Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam Thursday was a masterful at-bat — but the timing is not. He looks like a hitter who missed closed to two months.

Judge has put 15 balls in play since returning as a hitter and he has more fly balls and line drives (eight) than grounders and pop-ups (seven), so that’s good, but he’s not hitting the ball with much authority. He roped a 112.1 mph line drive in his first at-bat back. Since then he has only five 90+ mph batted balls, and his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph. His spray chart with exit velocities:

Yeah, not great. Judge has swung through some hittable fastballs since returning, which isn’t the most surprising thing in the world. He had a long layoff and jumping straight from batting practice and simulated games to live MLB pitching ain’t easy. That’s why Judge needs as many at-bats as possible the rest of the season. There’s a delicate balance here because the Yankees don’t want to overload the wrist, but yeah, Judge needs at-bats.

As for Chapman, he’s made three appearances since returning, two good and one not-so-good. His command was nonexistent — similar to Judge, Chapman not having good command after a month on the shelf isn’t surprising — in his first game back, and his velocity was down the last two times out. In fact, his 96.3 mph average fastball velocity Saturday was his slowest average fastball since June 2012.

“I felt good. The speed wasn’t where it usually is, but my command was much better and that’s really important,” said Chapman to Dan Martin over the weekend. “(The velocity being down) doesn’t worry me at all. I know the speed is there. It’s just a matter of getting out there and my getting rhythm back. Maybe after two more outings I’ll be back to being the pitcher I’ve been.”

Seeing Chapman sit mid-90s rather than upper-90s/low-100s can be alarming, though in this case, I’m not worried. He missed a month and is still rebuilding arm strength. Two bullpen sessions and one simulated game wasn’t going to get him back into midseason form. The Yankees have six games remaining and, since Chapman pitched yesterday, it seems he has three appearances remaining at most. He and Judge need reps this last week to get back to where the Yankees need they them to be going into October.

Rest whoever’s hurting

Well, the Yankees were in good shape health-wise up until two days ago. Now Didi Gregorius has torn cartilage in his wrist and Aaron Hicks has a tight hamstring. Both are day-to-day at this point. Gregorius will be reevaluated tomorrow and Hicks is going for an MRI today. If all goes well, both could return to the lineup later this week. I sure hope that happens. Aside from Didi and Hicks, the Yanks are healthy.

Does that mean everyone on the roster is 100%? Oh hell no. No one is 100% in September. Everyone’s nursing something. Stanton’s still dealing with his tight hamstring. Brett Gardner’s been icing his right knee after games on-and-off for a few weeks now. Dellin Betances has that cut on his finger that keeps opening up. He says it doesn’t affect his pitching, but he seems to be bleeding every time he’s on the mound, and that can’t be fun.

Point is, some players are nursing injuries, and if the Yankees can get them some extra rest and extra treatment in hopes of getting them healthy for the postseason, they should do it. There’s a balance that has to be struck, for sure. The Yankees can’t go into hangover mode just yet because they need to secure homefield advantage, but if there’s an opportunity to deal with those aches and pains, they should do it.

Prepare regulars for postseason roles

Inevitably, some players will see their roles changed in October. Lance Lynn is probably going to move to the bullpen, for example. He pitched out of the bullpen in the postseason plenty with the Cardinals, so it’s a role he’s familiar with, but it still would be good to give him a tune-up game in relief before the season ends, you know? You don’t want him doing it for the first time in a potential elimination game.

Gardner had been relegated to bench duty before Hicks got hurt last night, and if Hicks returns later this week, it stands to reason Gardner will be the designated pinch-runner in the postseason. Do you know how long it’s been since Gardner pinch-ran? Last June. He’s pinch-run five times total since 2012. It’s not a role he’s familiar with and it’s not easy to come off the bench cold like that. A few tune-up pinch-running appearances this week would be worthwhile, assuming Hicks returns.

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Also, with Gardner in center/on the bench, Andrew McCutchen is now the everyday left fielder, and he has 59 career big league innings in left field. All 59 have come within the last two weeks. He’s still learning the position — McCutchen’s looked fine out there overall but has taken some interesting routes at times, which is to be expected — and the more time the Yankees give him out there, the more comfortable he’ll be.

There are some other minor considerations here as well. Will Greg Bird make the postseason roster, even as a bench bat? If yes, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give him some at-bats this final week. Are Chad Green and David Robertson (and Zach Britton?) going to be multi-inning options in the postseason? Making sure they’re sufficiently stretched out seems worthwhile. Little things like this will help get the Yankees ready for October.

* * *

A case can be made the Yankees should give Justus Sheffield a chance to show he belongs on the postseason roster this week, though, realistically, I don’t think there’s enough time for that to happen. Best case scenario this week is three appearances, right? How well would Sheffield have to pitch in those three appearances to get the nod on the postseason roster? There are too many guys ahead of him on the depth chart, I think, but I do hope to see Sheffield pitch a bunch this week.

The Yankees have punched their ticket to the postseason, so they know they’re in. Now they have to clinch homefield advantage and make sure the Wild Card Game is in New York. They also have to get their players ready for the postseason, which means picking a Wild Card Game starter, getting Judge and Chapman ready, and preparing players for their October roles. The Yankees know they’re going to the postseason. Their work during the regular season isn’t done yet though.

Yankeemetrics: Two not enough, Sox celebrate (Sept. 18-20)

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(USA Today)

Neil Walker, the Clutch Home Run Corker
For at least one day, the Yankees staved off an embarrassing AL East championship watch party in the Bronx as they rallied for a 3-2 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Yankees won despite just three hits, the second time this season they’ve pulled off that feat at Yankee Stadium (the other game was September 1 vs Detroit). The last time they won multiple home games with no more than three hits was 1998.

Before we get to the late-game dramatics, let’s recognize the gutty performance of J.A. Happ, who pitched out of several jams while holding the Red Sox to one unearned across six innings. Happ has a 0.54 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this season; that’s the lowest ERA by any AL pitcher against any opponent this season (min. 3 starts and 10 IP).

Down 1-0 in the seventh with two men on base, Neil Walker snatched the hero’s cape as he drilled a 3-2 pitch from Ryan Braiser into the second deck in right field, flipping the score for a 3-1 advantage. It was his third go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later, the most by any Yankee this season. It was the team’s 18th go-ahead home run in the seventh inning or later, the second-most in a season in franchise history, trailing only the 2009 club (21).

That blast was also Walker’s 10th of the season as he became the 11th Yankee to reach double digits in 2018. That ties the major-league record, done by four other teams: 2017 Astros, 2016 Twins, 2015 Astros and 2004 Tigers.

(USA Today)

Luuuuuke and the Return of Severino
The Yankees kept Boston’s celebratory champagne corked for a second night in a row, routing their rival 10-1 on Tuesday. Also, significant is the fact that it kept the Red Sox at 103 wins with 10 games remaining, so that they won’t be able to match the 1998 Yankees 114-win season.

The Bombers beat up on their favorite punching bag, David Price, clobbering three home runs off him while scoring six runs (four earned) in five-plus innings. In four starts against the Yankees this season, Price has a 10.34 ERA over 15 2/3 innings. That would be the highest ERA by a Red Sox pitcher against the Yankees in a single season (min. 4 starts). Oh, and did I mention that Price really really doesn’t like pitching in the Bronx …

Luis Severino took another step forward in his slow climb back to #AceSevy as he overcame a lack of fastball command to mostly shut down the Red Sox lineup, allowing one run across seven strong innings. In contrast to Price, Sevy really really likes pitching against the Red Sox in the Bronx recently:

Miguel Andujar jump-started the dinger parade early with a homer in the second inning to put the Yankees up 1-0. It came on a 1-2 pitch from Price, his 12th homer when behind in the count, which leads all major-league players this season. The solo blast was also his 25th of the season, giving the Yankees a MLB-best four players with at least 25 homers this season.

Even more impressive is Andujar’s nearly unprecedented combo of two-baggers and longballs this season.

  • He is one of five AL rookies, aged 23 or younger, to hit at least 25 homers and 40 doubles. The other four: Nomar Garciaparra (1997), Ted Williams (1939), Joe DiMaggio (1936) and Hal Trosky (1934).
  • And he is the only rookie third baseman (at least 50% of games played at the position) in MLB history to reach those totals in a season.


Luke Voit stole the headlines, though, with a monster 4-for-4, 3-RBI night that included two homers off Price. In 70 games with the Cardinals, Voit never hit more than one homer in a game and never had more than two hits in any game. In 29 games with the Yankees, he already has two multi-homer performances and three games with at least three hits. And to celebrate the huge performance by the chest-hair-pimping first basemen, we’ll give him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series. Here is the list of Yankees with at least four hits, four runs scored and three RBI in a game against the Red Sox

  • Luke Voit (Sept. 19, 2018)
  • Graig Nettles (Sept. 29, 1976)
  • Hank Bauer (May 10, 1952)
  • Lou Gehrig (Sept. 23, 1933)
  • Babe Ruth (Sept. 28, 1923)

All good things come to an end
It finally happened. Needing a sweep to prevent a cruel division-clinching party by their blood rival at The Stadium, the Yankees snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as they allowed the Red Sox to rally late for a 11-6 victory. This is the Red Sox 10th AL East title in the Divisional Era (since 1969) and the first time they’ve clinched it with a win against the Yankees.

(Newsday)

Masahiro Tanaka, coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, was hit hard by the Red Sox lineup early and often, giving up four runs in the first three innings and got the hook with no outs in the fifth. This continued a string of poor performances against the Red Sox this season: in four starts, he has a 7.58 ERA with 29 hits and six home runs allowed over 19 innings pitched.

With one swing of the bat in the second inning, Luke Voit set two home run records when he bashed a 93-mph pitch deep over the center-field wall. It was his 10th homer in pinstripes and he became the 12th Yankee this season with double-digit dingers, the most such players for any team in MLB history. The two-run blast was also the Bombers’ 246th home run in 2018, setting a new single-season franchise record.

Giancarlo Stanton broke out of his slump with a grand slam in the fourth inning that turned a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. Yes, the lead would disappear quickly, but he still deserves a shout-out, so here’s a #FunFact stat to chew on:

As mentioned above, that advantage lasted only a couple innings as Chad Green surrendered a game-tying homer to Jackie Bradley Jr leading off the seventh. Green has allowed nine homers in 71 2/3 innings this season; entering 2018, he had given up four homers in 76 1/3 career innings as a reliever.

Dellin Betances tried to clean up Green’s mess in the seventh, but after loading the bases, he coughed up a tie-breaking sac fly to Xander Bogaerts. It was the first sac fly allowed by Betances in more than two years (August 30, 2016 vs Royals).

The Yankees were active at the trade deadline and so far all their moves are having a big impact

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Cutch. (Presswire)

At some point soon, possibly before the end of the homestand, the Yankees will clinch a spot in the postseason. They’re not going to win the AL East — the Yankees need to go no worse than 10-1 the rest of the way while the Red Sox go 0-10 for that to happen — so a spot in the Wild Card Game will have to do. That’s okay. Just get in and you can win.

The Yankees have the third best record in baseball and they’re going to return to the postseason for a lot of reasons, including this year’s trade deadline pickups. The incumbents have been pretty good! But they needed help, so Brian Cashman and his staff were very active prior to both the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. They imported:

  • Two new starting pitchers (J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn).
  • A new first baseman (Luke Voit).
  • Another late-inning reliever (Zach Britton).
  • A new leadoff hitter and corner outfielder (Andrew McCutchen).

The Yankees also added a new utility infielder (Adeiny Hechavarria) and gobs of international bonus money at the deadline(s), though those are relatively minor additions. The other moves were much more significant. The Yankees turned over 40% of the rotation, two starting lineup spots, and added another end-game arm.

And, so far, just about all of those moves are paying big dividends. Lynn has been more serviceable than good, but, considering who he replaced (Sonny Gray), serviceable qualifies as a big upgrade. Happ has been outstanding in eight of his nine starts, including two nights ago against the Red Sox. Voit socked two more dingers last night and has nine in 29 games with the Yankees.

I don’t know whether they’d admit it, but I know Cashman and Aaron Boone and everyone else in the organization did not expect Voit to have this much impact. If they did, he wouldn’t have been sent to Triple-A Scranton (twice). Greg Bird was struggling, Voit got an opportunity, and he’s run with it. Voit went from first base platoon option to full-time first baseman. He’s given the lineup a huge lift.

Britton had a rocky start to his Yankees tenure but has really settled in lately. He’s allowed three runs (two earned) in his last 13 appearances and 14 innings while holding opponents to a .149/.180/.213 batting line. Britton has an 80.6% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That works out to 50 ground balls and 12 non-ground balls among 62 balls in play. He came in handy when Aroldis Chapman went down.

To me, McCutchen has been every bit as important as Happ and Voit and Britton. He only just got here, I know, but the Yankees had a revolving door in right field while Aaron Judge was on the disabled list, and McCutchen put an end to that. Now, with Judge back, he’s slid over to left field to replace the ineffective Brett Gardner, giving the Yankees another offensive threat. I love Gardner, he’s been a great Yankee, but it wasn’t working and a change had to made.

Last night McCutchen reached base three times in the blowout win over the Red Sox and he’s reached base 24 times in his last eleven games. The batting average is still a little low (.216), but McCutchen owns a .414 OBP as a Yankees, and that has been a game-changer atop the lineup. The leadoff spot (mostly Gardner) had a .205/.319/.298 (72 wRC+) batting line in 40 games from the All-Star break through August 31st. Can’t have that. McCutchen fixed it.

“It doesn’t have to be splashy. It just has to work,” said Cashman following the July 31st deadline. And so far, every just about every move the Yankees made has worked. Happ has steadied the rotation and forms a potentially very good postseason front three with the locked in Masahiro Tanaka and the seemingly rejuvenated Luis Severino. Britton makes the bullpen better and McCutchen and Voit have made the lineup that much deeper.

Keep in mind that, unlike some other teams, the Yankees were active at the trade deadline because they had to be. The Red Sox were in great shape and were able to add pieces like Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler to make their roster even better. The Yankees were more desperate for upgrades. Judge was hurt, Gray and Domingo German were becoming untenable, so was Bird, and Chapman’s achy knee was in the back of everyone’s mind. These were “we really need these guys to contend” moves. Not just upgrades to the fringes of the roster, you know?

Unlike last year, when they targeted players with long-term control, the Yankees focused on rentals this year. That’s probably just a coincidence given the way he market shook out, though I wonder whether getting burned by Gray (and Tommy Kahnle, to some degree) led to the Yankees looking for lower cost short-term moves. Either way, it’s worked quite well. The Yankees don’t really miss anyone they gave up — maybe they will one day, but right now? nah — and the players they received have all become important contributors. The trade deadline was a smashing success.

Poll: The 2018 Wild Card Game Starter

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(Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Barring a stunning collapse by either the Red Sox or Yankees, the Yankees will play in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game on Wednesday, October 3rd. That’s three weeks from yesterday. The Yankees lost the 2015 Wild Card Game to the Astros and won the 2017 Wild Card Game against the Twins, so this won’t be their first wildcard rodeo. They’ve been through it before.

The Yankees will inevitably face the Athletics in the Wild Card Game — Oakland is 8.5 games up on the Mariners for a postseason spot, so yeah — which will be a daunting challenge, but winning the World Series ain’t easy. You’ve got to beat several good teams to do it and the Athletics are a very good team. You can write it in pen at this point: Yankees vs. Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game. Where? That is still up in the air.

At some point between now and then the Yankees (and A’s) will have to select a Wild Card Game starter and get that pitcher lined up for October 3rd. With Sean Manaea out, I assume the A’s will go with Mike Fiers, but we’ll see. The Yankees? It’s a bit less clear. Given Lance Lynn’s overall body of work, I think we can remove him from consideration. The other four starters all have a case to get the nod in the Wild Card Game. Let’s review.

J.A. Happ

Career Postseason: 3.72 ERA (4.06 FIP) in 19.1 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 1 GS, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

The case for Happ: Since coming over at the trade deadline, Happ has been everything the Yankees could’ve possibly wanted. Steady, reliable, low maintenance. He has a 2.70 ERA (4.45 FIP) with 22.9% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in eight starts and 46.2 innings with the Yankees, and, just last week, he held the A’s to one run in six innings and was dominant. Happ may not be a true top of the rotation starter like Chris Sale or Corey Kluber, but he’s a damn good pitcher, and I don’t get the sense the pressure of the postseason will get to him at all.

The case against Happ: Well, Happ did face the Athletics just last week, so they’d be seeing him for the second time in less than a month on Wild Card Game night. The more times you see a pitcher, especially several appearances close together, the more it becomes advantage hitter. The A’s know what Happ is about. They just saw him and have a firsthand scouting report. Also, I should note Happ is a fly ball pitcher (42.0% grounders) and the A’s have hit the third most home runs in MLB (200). That might not mix well.

CC Sabathia

Career Postseason: 4.20 ERA (4.35 FIP) in 126.1 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 1 GS, 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 HR

The case for Sabathia: First of all, Sabathia’s been really good this year! I feel like we’re not appreciating enough the fact he has a 3.54 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 139.2 innings on one good knee. Sabathia has the third highest soft contact rate (24.6%) and the eighth lowest hard contact rate (28.9%) in baseball. Hitters have had a hard time squaring him up and that has been the case for nearly three years now. And we know Sabathia won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. He’s pitched in a lot of big games over the years. There’s a reason the Yankees picked him to start ALDS Game Five and ALDS Game Seven last year. Game Five went great. Game Seven … not so much. But credit the Astros. They’re pretty good.

The case against Sabathia: The A’s saw Sabathia just last week and roughed him up pretty good. Also, Sabathia has been just okay since returning from the disabled list last month, pitching to a 4.87 ERA (2.03 FIP) in four starts and 20.1 innings. The disaster start against in Oakland is skewing that a bit (3.71 ERA in the other three starts), but still, the outs and 1-2-3 innings haven’t come quite as easily the last three or four weeks.

Luis Severino

Career Postseason: 5.63 ERA (7.22 FIP) in 16 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 2 GS, 8.2 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 B, 10 K, 0 HR

(Rich Schultz/Getty)

The case for Severino: Severino is the most talented pitcher in the rotation. He’s the best bet to limit balls in play and he is probably the team’s best chance at a dominant Wild Card Game start. The guy didn’t take a 2.31 ERA (2.75 FIP) into the All-Star break by accident. Severino pitched at a similar level last season. If the Yankees want someone who can overpower the Athletics and avoid balls in play, Severino is their best bet. When he’s right, he’s among the best in the sport.

The case against Severino: The last two months can not be ignored. Severino has lost his slider and his command has wavered, and, as a result, he has a 6.34 ERA (4.35 FIP) in his last 12 starts and 61 innings, and that includes last night’s rebound start against the Twins. His worst outing of the season came last week, against the same A’s team he’d face in the Wild Card Game. Severino was arguably the best pitcher in the league in the first half. He has inarguably been one of the worst in the second half. As good as his overall body of work is since the start of last season, you can’t ignore what’s right in front of you. Severino has been thoroughly ineffective since early July. Perhaps last night was a #turningpoint. We’ll have to wait and see.

Masahiro Tanaka

Career Postseason: 1.44 ERA (3.23 FIP) in 25 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: N/A

The case for Tanaka: Wow has Tanaka been good lately. He’s been the opposite of Severino. He started poorly and is finishing very well. Tanaka has a 2.35 ERA (2.93 FIP) with great strikeout (25.9%), walk (4.3%), and ground ball (50.9%) rates in his last ten starts and 65 innings. Happ has been very good overall. Tanaka has been the Yankees’ best starter for more than two months now. Also, Tanaka hasn’t faced the A’s this season! Oakland’s hitters would be going in blind. And who could forget what he did in the postseason last year? There is no moment too big for him.

The case against Tanaka: For starters, Tanaka remains very home run prone (1.5 HR/9), and the A’s can hit the ball out of the park. Their 200 home runs are second in the American League to the Yankees (234). Secondly, Tanaka excels by getting hitters to chase out of the zone. He leads all pitchers in chase rate this year (40.1%). He led all pitchers in chase rate last year (42.1%). That’s what Tanaka does. He gets hitter to expand the zone. The Athletics, however, do not chase out of the zone. Their team 27.6% chase rate is the lowest in baseball. Only the Dodgers (26.9%) chase less. They’re the type of offense that could lay off those splitters and sliders, and back Tanaka into bad counts.

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You could make the case the Yankees should just bullpen game the Wild Card Game. That might be tough to do without an effective Aroldis Chapman, however. Two innings from Jonathan Holder, two innings from Chad Green, then cobble together five innings from David Robertson, Zach Britton, and Dellin Betances? Chapman returning and being effective would make the bullpen game plan a little more realistic.

The Yankees have not given any indication they will bullpen game the Wild Card Game — they effectively bullpen gamed it last year, and when they got to ALDS, their bullpen was fried for the first few games — and I’m cool with that. Start an actual starter and adjust as necessary on the fly. Again, that’s what the Yankees did last year. If they get four or five good innings from the starter before going to the bullpen, great! That’d be ideal.

Given the remaining schedule, Severino is currently lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest. That doesn’t mean much though. There’s still time to rearrange things and get Tanaka or Severino or Sabathia lined up for that day on normal rest, with extra rest, whatever. The Yankees have about a week, a week and a half to really nail this down. Anyway, the Wild Card Game starter is begging for a poll, so let’s get to it.

Who should start the 2018 Wild Card Game?
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J.A. Happ has given the Yankees exactly what they’ve needed since the trade deadline

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(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Coming into the season, the question was not “will the Yankees get a starter at the deadline?” The question was “which starter will they get?” It was a damn near certainly the Yankees would get another starting pitcher, especially after Jordan Montgomery went down with Tommy John surgery and Sonny Gray stayed healthy but went full Javy Vazquez. The need for another starter was clear.

A no-doubt ace never hit the market. Jacob deGrom was never really available and calling Chris Archer an ace at this point is a bit of a stretch. That was a bummer for the Yankees, who had the prospect capital to get pretty much any player they wanted. They could’ve made the best offer for deGrom. I’m not sure the Mets would’ve traded him to the Yankees, but the Yankees had the pieces to get it done.

So, with no clear cut ace on the market, the Yankees went for the next best thing: Reliability. That led them to left-hander J.A. Happ, who, funnily enough, really struggled before the trade. Remember when he allowed 26 runs in his final five starts and 31.1 innings with the Blue Jays? People freaked out and said he wouldn’t be a good pickup. Then the Yankees traded for him, and there was more freakout.

Last night Happ made his eighth start as a Yankee, and, for the fifth time in those eight starts, he threw at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs. It was the sixth time he allowed no more than two runs period. Happ tossed six scoreless innings against the Twins last night and it could’ve been seven innings, but, once the Yankees broke the game open, there was no sense in wasting bullets.

“He’s a very good pitcher, an easy guy to catch,” said Gary Sanchez to Bryan Hoch following last night’s game. “A guy that’s aggressive, a guy that goes after strike one. He has a really good plan from the beginning, executes the plan. When you have a guy like that, it allows you to get on the same page with him and be able to work effectively.”

Happ has had one disaster start with the Yankees — the Tigers tagged him for five runs and three homers in 4.1 innings in August 30th — but has otherwise been exactly what the team needed. He’s been effective, he chews up innings, and he doesn’t seem to be rattled by anything. Happ seems very low maintenance. The Yankees plugged him right into the rotation and away he went.

In his eight starts with New York, Happ owns a 2.70 ERA (4.45 FIP) — the homers in that start against Detroit did a number on his FIP — with 22.9% strikeouts and 4.8% walks. He’s not getting ground balls (36.2%), though ground balls were never his thing anyway. He’s more of a weak contact guy, and, this year, Happ has the 12th highest soft contact rate (20.6%) and 18th lowest hard contact rate (31.9%) in baseball. That’ll play.

Beyond the quality innings, Happ also gives the Yankees a different look. They are still the most extreme anti-fastball team in baseball. Only 46.2% of their total pitches this year have been fastballs. No other team is below 49.2% and only three other teams are below 50.0%. Happ, meanwhile, is one of the most extreme fastball pitchers in baseball. The fastball leaderboard:

  1. Bartolo Colon: 78.3%
  2. Lance Lynn: 77.4% (88.6% with Yankees)
  3. J.A. Happ: 73.0% (71.3% with Yankees)
  4. Brad Keller: 70.2%
  5. Trevor Williams: 69.7%

The Yankees acquired two of the top three starters in fastball usage at the deadline despite being the most extreme anti-fastball team in baseball. Coincidence? Yeah, I think so, actually. I think acquiring Lynn and Happ had more to do with who was available at the trade deadline than it was a certain pitching philosophy. Either way, the Yankees added Happ, he’s stuck with throwing a ton of fastballs, and he’s been very good for them overall.

At some point soon the Yankees will have to pick a starter for the Wild Card Game and, to me, it seems like it’s down to Happ or Masahiro Tanaka. Luis Severino hasn’t pitched well for two months now, and while I think the Yankees would be cool with running CC Sabathia out there in a winner-take-all game (they did it twice last postseason), Happ and Tanaka feel like the best options. I’m not sure there’s a wrong answer here. Either works.

For now, the Yankees desperately needed someone to step in and provide rotation stability, and Happ has done that. Gray stunk, Montgomery got hurt, and Domingo German showed flashes of brilliance but was largely ineffective. They went out and got Happ, even after his rough final five starts with the Blue Jays, and he’s given the team a real shot in the arm in the second half. He’s been everything they could’ve possibly hoped.

“It’s been exciting since I got here, and it’s obviously still that way,” said Happ to Hoch. “We’re still trying to chase this thing down and we know that we’ve got to play good baseball to keep that spot. It’s exciting. Every game means something and that little bit extra definitely helps.”

Yankeemetrics: West Coast nightmare (Sept 3-5)

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(AP)

Ugly homecoming for Sabathia
The Yankees nine-game, 10-day road trip got off to a miserable start in Oakland with a 6-3 loss on Monday afternoon. The three runs masked a lackluster offensive showing, as they were 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position and managed just four hits while striking out 11 times. The last time the Yankees had four or fewer hits and struck out 11 or more times in a game against the A’s … World War II was still more than one month away from officially ending — July 27, 1945.

(AP)

CC Sabathia had one of his worst outings of the season, lasting just 3 1/3 innings while getting tagged for five runs (four earned) on seven hits and lots of loud contact. Six of the 13 balls in play against him were line drives, a season-high rate of 46.2 percent. The Bay Area native now owns a 5.38 career ERA in 11 starts at Oakland Coliseum, his second-highest mark at any stadium where he’s made more than five starts (5.68 at Rangers Ballpark is his worst).

The most impressive Yankee pitching performance was turned in by Jonathan Loaisiga, who threw two scoreless innings with four strikeouts — each of them swinging — and one hit allowed. He was excellent in pounding the outer edges of the zone against righties with his fastball-slider combo, netting six whiffs and six called strikes on 25 pitches.

[Monday vs A’s]
Although Gleyber Torres was 0-for-3 with a walk, it’s still worth noting that Monday was his 100th career game, giving us a chance for a sweet #FunFact to celebrate his century-game milestone in the big leagues:

Torres is one of five players in AL history age 21 or younger with at least 20 homers, a .350 on-base percentage and a .500 slugging percentage through their first 100 career games. The others: Jose Canseco, Tony Conigliaro, Joe DiMaggio and Hal Trosky. Fun list, eh?

King Louis
Thanks to #toomanyhomers, the Yankees overcame another bout of early-inning dead-bats disease and rallied for a 5-1 win on Tuesday night, snapping their five-game losing streak in Oakland. After getting no-hit through 5 2/3 innings, the offense exploded for seven hits and five runs in the final three innings en route to what turned into an easy victory.

This type of late-inning rally has become commonplace for the Yankees, who improved to an impressive 12-6 when tied at the start of the eighth inning. Last year they were 5-7 in those games, and the 12 wins are their most in a season since going 15-0(!) in 2009.

(AP)

The Yankees tied the game at 1-1 in the seventh after an Aaron Hicks bases-loaded walk — his AL-leading fourth bases-loaded walk of the season — and then pulled ahead in the next frame when Luke Voit led off the eighth with a solo home run. It was Voit’s seventh longball with the Yankees, and fifth that either tied the game or gave the team a lead. Obscure Yankeemetric Alert! The last Yankee with a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning or later in Oakland was Jason Giambi on April 14, 2007, a solo shot in the top of the 13th that propelled the Yankees to a 4-3 comeback win.

J.A. Happ bounced back from his worst start as a Yankee to deliver one of his best starts as a Yankee. He made one mistake in his gem (a solo homer in the second inning), but otherwise turned in a masterful six-inning, two-hit, one-run performance. In two outings against the best teams he’s faced as a Yankee — Tuesday vs the A’s and August 14 vs the Rays — he’s pitched a combined 13 innings, faced 45 batters, allowed three hits and just one run in those games.

(Getty)

Terrible terrible Sevy
The Yankees visit to the Bay Area ended with an disaster-filled dud, getting manhandled by the A’s 8-2 on Wednesday night. The Oakland Coliseum has become of house of horrors for the Bombers recently. They are now 7-18 (.280) at the stadium since the 2012 All-Star break, their worst win percentage at any AL ballpark over the last six and a half seasons, and the second-worst win percentage by any AL team there in that span (Twins are 4-16).

Pitching against the team that the Yankees are most likely to face in the Wild Card Game, Luis Severino had his worst start of the season, a total disaster in which he lasted just 2 2/3 innings and was blasted for six runs on six hits. The A’s rocked Severino from the start, as four of the first five batters pounded him with three scorched doubles and a line-drive single, plating four runs before Severino even recorded the second out of the first inning.

Those hits weren’t cheapies, either, they had exit velocities of 109.6, 106.3, 103.1 and 103.8 mph. Before Wednesday, he’d never allowed more than two 103-plus-mph hits in any single inning in his career. His lack of command was startling as Severino not only served up multiple meatball pitches but also threw two wild pitches and Gary Sanchez was charged with two passed balls. Sanchez has allowed 29 passed balls over the last two seasons, the most of any catcher in MLB in that span.

This game was an absolute debacle, yes, but it did produce a notable Milestone Alert. When Severino struck out Stephen Piscotty for the second out, it was his 200th strikeout of the season, the second straight season he’s reached that mark. Two other pitchers in franchise history have recorded multiple 200-K seasons, but none have done it three times.

Also, the 24-year-old became one of seven pitchers in the last four decades to record back-to-back 200-strikeout seasons before the age of 25. The others: Clayton Kershaw (2010-12), Yovani Gallardo (2009-10), Felix Hernandez (2009-10), Roger Clemens (1986-87), Fernando Valenzuela (1984-85) and Dwight Gooden (1984-86).