J.A. Happ Archives - Page 4 of 4

Scouting the Trade Market: J.A. Happ

July 26, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

The Hot Stove is Happ-ening. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The hot stove is scorching. Though J.A. Happ wasn’t moved on Wednesday night, he’s likely to be traded at any minute. The Blue Jays lefty is in the midst of a fine season, though he’s struggled recently. How does he fit the Yankees? Let’s look!

Current performance

James Anthony Happ carries a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) over 114 innings and 20 starts into play Thursday, though he had a 3.62 ERA (3.64 FIP) heading into July. His early season performance, particularly his May and June results, earned him his first All-Star bid as the Blue Jay’s lone representative.

To start this month, the 35-year-old southpaw suffered three consecutive lackluster starts, allowing 18 runs (13 earned) while walking eight and striking out 15 over 12 innings. He gave up four homers as well. Yikes. In his first start after picking up a save in the All-Star Game, he returned to form with one run over five innings.

Why is he an attractive asset? He sports a career-high strikeout rate of 27.4 percent without having the corresponding rise in walk rate (7.4 percent). While he’s inducing fewer groundballs, he’s creating more pop outs and fewer line drives. The concern is that he’s allowing home runs at a hefty rate, surrendering 17 this season after giving up just 18 a year ago.

Happ has seen a rise in his swinging strike rate from 9.4 to a personal-best 10.5 percent despite throwing fewer pitches in the zone. Batters have swung and missed on pitches out of the zone more often and his overall contact percentage has improved from 80.1 to 77.7.

Like most lefties, Happ has always had a normal split, though he’s been even better against same-sided batters this season. Only two of his home runs were hit by left-handers. He’s been much better away from Rogers Centre (2.60 ERA on road vs. 5.22 ERA at home). Despite struggling at home, he’s enjoyed a late-career revival since his brief stint with the Pirates in 2015 and his subsequent return to Toronto.

Current stuff

Happ used to be a 4-5 pitch pitcher, but now he comfortably relies on just 3-4 pitches, depending on if you consider the sinker a separate pitch from his fastball. He has mostly phased out his curveball and now uses his low-90s four-seam fastball and sinker more than 70 percent of the time. For off-speed offerings, he sits in the mid-80s with his slider and changeup, combining to use them in 25 percent of his pitches.

He throws his four-seam fastball around 93 mph and is in the midst of his highest velocity month for his fastball in his career, according to Brooks Baseball. The sinker around 91 mph.

Happ’s fastball remains his best pitch, hence why he relies upon it. His struggles in July have been due to batters hitting his sinker more for average and his four-seamer for power.

When he’s at his best, he hides the ball well and can blow his low-90s fastball by hitters.

Injury History

Happ has been a workhorse in recent seasons, but he did miss a month and a half with an elbow injury last season. However, he hasn’t missed a start since May 30 of last season.

He’s over five years removed from foot surgery and a scary line drive that hit him in the head and knocked him out for much of the 2013 season.

Contract Status

The southpaw is a rental, so no more years or control or money beyond this season. He’s in the final year of a three-year, $36 million contract and has a little over $4 million remaining on his deal. The Yankees have around $8 million to play with before bumping into the luxury tax, so Happ fits their budget.

What Would it Take?

With the Blue Jays not in the midst of a full rebuild, they’ll likely want controllable players near the majors. Joel Sherman reported that the Jays’ brass likes Brandon Drury, who the Yankees have reportedly floated in trade offers.

If not Drury, I’d expect a package that splits the difference between the Red Sox’s haul for Nate Eovaldi (one Triple-A pitcher with six years of control) and the Zach Britton package (one Triple-A starter, a Triple-A reliever and a Double-A starter). The Yankees have pitching depth from which to deal.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

The Yankees are looking to stabilize a rotation that is currently tossing out Luis Cessa and Sonny Gray two out of every five days, so Happ would do just fine. His price may be a little high considering his contract status, but the Bombers can afford to splurge with a 40-man roster crunch looming in the offseason. Happ could also audition for a deal with the Yankees next season.

It doesn’t hurt that the Red Sox struggle with lefties and the Yankees have them on the schedule nine more times this year. Happ isn’t perfect in this regard, having gotten shelled by the Sox earlier this month. But at the very least, he could be a stable addition to replace the rotating cast of younger players at the back-end of the rotation.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Archer, Happ, Pitching Prospects

July 25, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is now six days away and the Yankees made their (first?) big move last night. They acquired Zach Britton for three pitching prospects. The trade became official late last night. No need to worry about those stingy O’s medical reviews. It’s done. Britton is a Yankee. Anyway, here are the latest deadline rumors.

Yankees have checked in on Archer

The Yankees had two scouts on hand for Chris Archer’s most recent start and they have asked about his availability, report Pete Caldera and Jerry Crasnick. Archer faced the Marlins on Sunday and it was the perfect encapsulation of Chris Archer. He struck out 13 and walked zero in six innings … and also allowed four runs on eight hits. Archer has a 4.30 ERA (3.50 FIP) with 25.6% strikeouts and 7.5% walks in 90 innings around an abdominal injury this year. Since Opening Day 2016, he has a 4.09 ERA (99 ERA+) in 492.1 innings.

Truth be told, the Rays missed their opportunity to trade Archer for maximum value a few years ago. He turns 30 in September (no, really), his performance has slipped in recent years, and he comes with three years of control beyond 2018 rather than four or five. That said, Archer can still tantalize with his stuff, and three years of control at $27.7M from 2019-21 is a great price even if he is a true talent league average starter now. The Yankees are doing their due diligence. I still get the sense Tampa will want an ace-caliber package in return for Archer though.

Blue Jays dropping price for Happ

According to Joel Sherman and Andy Martino, the Blue Jays are really pushing to trade their rentals soon — they don’t want to be stuck trying to move everyone on deadline day — and their asking price for J.A. Happ has dropped. They had been seeking a club’s top three-ish prospect in return. The Scott Kazmir trade makes sense to me as a benchmark. Kazmir went from the Athletics to the Astros for two mid-range prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) as a rental three years ago.

The Yankees have of course been connected to Happ in recent weeks, so this information is relevant to them. Maybe this’ll start to move things toward the finish line. Happ has a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) in 20 starts and 114 innings this season, though his last six starts have been rough (27 runs in 31.1 innings). Even last time out, he needed 102 pitches to throw five innings of one-run ball against the Manny Machado-less Orioles. Thing is, all the other rentals (Cole Hamels, Tyson Ross, etc.) have stunk recently too. I liked Happ the most among the rentals to start with. Since they’re all struggling, might as well stick with the guy liked most in the first place? I guess?

Teams interested in pitching prospects more than Frazier

According to our Sung-Min Kim, the Yankees have been pushing Clint Frazier in trade talks in recent weeks, but teams are showing more interest in their pitching prospects. The Yankees are loaded with outfielders and pushing Frazier in trade conversations only makes sense. His recent disabled list stint and trip through the concussion protocol really complicates things before the trade deadline, however.

As for trading pitching prospects, man, trade ’em all. Well, no, not all of them, but I think you know what I mean. The Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects — 22 of MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects are pitchers — and the attrition rate is so damn high. Trade some of them before they blow out their arms and whatnot. Justus Sheffield is on another level for me. He’s a stud and he’s so very close to MLB ready. He should only go in a trade for a true difference maker. Chance Adams? Albert Abreu? Pretty much every other pitching prospect in the system? No trouble trading any of them.

Yankees won’t part with top prospects for rentals

In some very unsurprising news, Jack Curry reports the Yankees won’t trade any of their top prospects for a rental before the deadline. Maybe in a better trade market they would, but, with no high-end pitching rentals available, the top prospects are staying. Curry lists Sheffield, Frazier, and Estevan Florial among the “untouchable for a rental” group, which makes sense.

The Yankees did trade three prospects for Britton but only one (Tate) ranked among my most recent top 30 Yankees prospects. He was No. 7. (To be fair, Cody Carroll was No. 31.) The farm system isn’t what it was 18 months ago due to trades and graduations, but the Yankees still have plenty of good trade chips down there, even with Tate gone and the top guys off-limits. There’s an awful lot of pitching down there to peddle.

Yankees pushing Drury, Rule 5 Draft arms in trades

As expected, the Yankees have been pushing Brandon Drury and their various Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospects (Adams, Erik Swanson, etc.) in trades, according to Sherman and Martino. Drury and either Adams or Abreu, who is already on the 40-man roster, reportedly made up the bulk of their offer for Manny Machado. The Orioles wanted Florial and that was that. I should note the Yankees agreed to trade three Rule 5 Draft eligible arms (Carroll, Tate, Josh Rogers) for Britton.

As for Drury, Jeff Passan says the Yankees have been pushing him in trades for controllable relievers (in addition to the Machado), and Jon Heyman adds Drury was in the team’s offer for Brad Hand. I assume the Britton trade ends the bullpen search, but who knows? They could add a long-term bullpen piece to help win this year and help replace impending free agents Britton and David Robertson after the season. Could happen! But yeah, I wouldn’t count on it. Point is, the Yankees are pushing Drury and Rule 5 Draft eligible pitchers. Here’s a list of their upcoming Rule 5 Draft eligibles.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Eovaldi, Hand, Moustakas, D’Backs

July 10, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Nasty Nate in your area. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

We are now three weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and the Manny Machado rumors have arrived. It feels like a foregone conclusion the Yankees will do something before the deadline. I’m not sure what, exactly, but I’d bet on adding a starting pitcher. Anyway, here’s the latest batch of trade deadline rumors.

Yankees scouting Eovaldi

The Yankees were among the teams with a scout on hand for Nathan Eovaldi’s most recent start, reports Marc Topkin. Eovaldi took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Mets on Sunday and finished the afternoon with one hit allowed in seven shutout innings. He struck out nine. On one hand, that’s undeniably excellent. On the other hand, it was the Mets, so yeah.

Eovaldi, now 28, has a 3.35 ERA (4.16 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.3%), walk (3.3%), and ground ball (48.8%) rates in eight starts and 48.1 innings back from his second Tommy John surgery. He’s on a cheap ($2M) one-year contract and it is all but certain the Rays will trade him before the deadline. Tampa has Eovaldi using his cutter more, which could explain his effectiveness. The Yankees know Eovaldi well, if nothing else. He’s worth a longer look outside a rumor roundup setting. Stay tuned.

Yankees interested in Hand

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in lefty reliever Brad Hand. Hand is signed affordably through 2020 with a $10M club option for 2021. The Yankees have a very strong and deep bullpen already, but there’s always room for another quality reliever. Swap out Chasen Shreve for Hand and the bullpen would be even better.

Hand is probably the top reliever on the trade market right now and the price tag figures to be very high given his performance and contract. He’s not too dissimilar from Andrew Miller circa 2016. The Yankees had interest in him at last year’s deadline and adding another reliever does make some sense. Adding Hand won’t solve the rotation issues but he would make the Yankees better, and that’s the name of the game, getting better. Especially in a division race this tight.

Yankees, Blue Jays still discussing Happ

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees and Blue Jays are “continuing conversations” about left-hander J.A. Happ. The two sides are said to be “haggling over the price tag.” I guess the Yankees have not been scared away by Happ’s recent performance. It’s not just his dud against the Yankees over the weekend. In his last four starts Happ has allowed 20 runs and 38 baserunners (and six homers) in 22.2 innings. He has a 4.44 ERA (3.97 FIP) for the season.

The Yankees are not prone to small sample size (over)reactions. They’re a big picture organization. That doesn’t mean they’ll ignore Happ’s recent struggles, but if they’re comfortable with the medicals and their scouts and analytical folks think this is just a bump in the road, they could pursue Happ anyway. The trade deadline pitching options don’t look all that appealing right now. Happ, even with his recent struggles, may be the best bet the rest of the season. I’m not surprised the Yankees are still involved.

Yankees considering Moustakas for first base

Just put anyone at first base how hard could it be. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The Yankees are considering longtime Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas for first base, reports Jon Morosi. This sounds more like an idea the Yankees are kicking around rather than a “the two teams are talking” rumor. Moustakas has played a handful of games at first base this year — he’d never played a position other than third prior to this season — and he’s on a cheap ($6.5M) contract.

Greg Bird is maybe kinda sorta starting to hit a bit — he is 7-for-29 (.241) with five walks (.371 OBP) in his last eight games and his at-bats have been much better — but he’s still hitting an underwhelming .203/.324/.398 (100 wRC+) overall. Moustakas is hitting a slightly better .251/.308/.464 (106 wRC+) overall, including .207/.270/.393 (77 wRC+) since the day Bird made his season debut. Plus he hasn’t played much first base at all. Like I’ve been saying, if Bird isn’t hitting by the All-Star break, go get a first baseman. An actual first baseman, preferably.

D’Backs, Rangers, Phillies scouting Yankees

The Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Phillies all had scouts watching Triple-A Scranton over the weekend, reports George King. The Reds and Royals continue to scout the Yankees as well. Most of the RailRiders’ best players (Brandon Drury, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade) were in the big leagues at the time, but Billy McKinney is still down there, and over the weekend pitching prospects Justus Sheffield, Josh Rogers, and Chance Adams all started for Scranton.

The Rangers stink and are going to trade Cole Hamels before the trade deadline, so it makes sense that they’ve got eyes on the Yankees. What about the D’Backs and Phillies? They’re contenders! They’re not just contenders, they’re in first place! I suppose Arizona could be doing due diligence in case they collapse and decide to trade Patrick Corbin? Unless the Phillies make a young starter like Nick Pivetta or Zach Eflin (or Aaron Nola!) available, I’m not sure they match up well with the Yankees for a trade.

Trade Deadline Notes: Harvey, Happ, Ross, Royals, Tigers

July 7, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later today the Yankees and Blue Jays will continue their three-game weekend series with the middle game. That’s a 4:07pm ET start. Here are some trade deadline notes to check out in the meantime.

Harvey “not high” on Yankees’ list

The kinda maybe possibly good again Matt Harvey is “not high” on the Yankees’ list of trade targets, reports Jon Heyman. Heyman says that, among other things, the Yankees are worried about a “potential circus” that would follow Harvey’s return to New York. Yeah, it sure would create a media frenzy. That’s for sure. I’m sure the Yankees would happily live with the headache if Harvey were still a no-doubt ace, but that is no longer the case.

Harvey owns a 4.91 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 80.2 total innings this season, though he’s been better since being traded to the Reds, pitching to a 3.86 ERA (4.20 FIP) in 53.2 innings. He’s been especially good the last three times out, allowing only three runs with a 14/2 K/BB in 18.1 innings against contending teams (Cubs, Braves, Brewers). Jay Jaffe had a good breakdown of Harvey’s revival. Strip away the name and I don’t think the current version of Harvey generates much buzz as a trade candidate. Meh.

Yankees are “main player” for Happ

According to Heyman, the Yankees are a “main player” for J.A. Happ and he’s either at or near the top of their deadline shopping list. The Brewers and Mariners are said to have interest as well, and I’m sure other teams will enter the mix before the trade deadline. The Yankees will get (another) firsthand look at Happ later this afternoon, when he takes the mound at Rogers Centre in the middle game of this three-game series.

The 35-year-old Happ is sitting on a 4.03 ERA (3.64 FIP) after getting clobbered for seven runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers last time out. Prior to that he had a more palatable 3.62 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 97 innings. I think Happ is the best available rental in a pretty crummy market. A quality southpaw who is familiar with the AL East would be a welcome addition to the rotation. The trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros in 2015 seems like a decent trade benchmark. The A’s landed two top 20 organizational prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) in that deal.

Yankees don’t have much interest in Ross

The Yankees do not have as much interest in Tyson Ross as they do other trade targets like Happ and Michael Fulmer, reports Lindsey Alder (subs. req’d). The 31-year-old Ross is on a dirt cheap one-year contract with the last place Padres and chances are he’ll be traded before the deadline. San Diego would be silly to keep him when they could turn him into a prospect or two. Rebuilding teams sign reclamation projects like Ross specifically so they can flip them for prospects.

So far this season Ross has a 3.78 ERA (4.31 FIP) in exactly 100 innings, though, like Happ, his last start was disaster (seven runs in five innings). Prior to that Ross had a 3.32 ERA (3.87 FIP) in 95 innings. His strikeout (21.4%) and ground ball (43.8%) rates aren’t nearly as good as they were before his 2016-17 arm problems. I see Ross as more of a secondary target a la Jaime Garcia last year. Someone to add for depth. Not someone you’re counting on to really make a difference, you know?

Reds, Tigers, Royals all scouting Yankees

The Reds, Tigers, and Royals have all been scouting the Yankees in recent weeks, according to George King. The Royals had a scout on hand Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday at Yankee Stadium while Reds had someone in the Bronx on Monday and Tuesday. Kansas City has also been scouting Double-A Trenton. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been covering the farm system thoroughly. Undoubtedly other teams are scouting the system as well.

I think it’s safe to assume the Tigers are doing their due diligence in advance of a potential Fulmer trade. The Reds have Harvey and Raisel Iglesias — would they move Luis Castillo? — while the Royals have Danny Duffy and Mike Moustakas, who I supposed could play first base. It might seem like a stretch that the Yankees would trade an MLB roster player(s) for any of those guys, but Jonathan Loaisiga started Monday and Domingo German started Tuesday. I don’t think the Yankees would make either off-limits. I’m not saying they should trade them. But they would in the right deal, for sure.

Evaluating Happ and Hamels

June 24, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

It’s a Cole world out there. (Bob Levey/Getty)

For most of last week, I was in a room at a high school in Queens Village–shouts to the Hillside Avenue Wendy’s–scoring ELA Regents exams. At first, it’s a nice change of pace from the day-to-day grind that is the end of the school year. It’s fun to read other students’ writings and get a glimpse into how their teachers approach the very same things that I do day in and day out. But, of course, by the second or third day, your eyes are crossed and every word looks exactly the same and the rubric is laughing at you with the subtle distinctions between scores. So you’d think the last thing I’d want to look at is another rubric. Well, you’d be wrong, because as we inch closer to the trade deadline, it’s time to evaluate some pitching targets.

The two the Yankees have been linked to most frequently–though that talk hasn’t been as fervent lately–have been JA Happ of the Blue Jays and Cole Hamels of the Rangers (hey, two former Phillies). Yes, they’ve been linked to Jacob deGrom as well, but that’s a pipe dream. I have more of a chance of successfully teaching pre-calc than the Yankees and Mets have of doing that trade. Let’s stick to more realistic options.

While the Yankees’ starting pitching has been good of late, it wouldn’t hurt to acquire one more starter for the second half and the playoffs when they get here. On a surface level, they fit well. Both are lefties, which the Yankees always love, and both aren’t aces. That last point may be counter-intuitive, but the Yankees don’t necessarily need that right now and that cost would be rather high. As a quick reminder of my very rudimentary trade rubric, see below and an explanation thereof here.

Category/Score	3	2	1
Cost $	Low $	Medium $	High $
Cost player	Low player	Medium player	High player
Control	3+ years beyond 2018	1-2 years beyond 2018	Impending free agent
Performance	High performance consistently AND recently	Some inconsistencies, may be a rebound/regression candidate	Consistently poor performance

In terms of money cost, both are relatively low. Haap would cost just under $4.5M for the rest of the year and Hamels, if acquired at the deadline, would fall somewhere around $10-11M, depending on the date. The Yankees, per our most recent calculations, have about $13M left to play with before hitting the luxury tax threshold. Acquiring either one of these guys would leave them with room to get someone else–a reliever?–if necessary.

Given that both are impending free agents–though Hamels has a club option and a buy out–they would score a 1 on the control part of the rubric, but there’s a caveat here. That’s fine for the Yankees this year. They’re not necessarily looking for a long-term piece this deadline season, but rather just one more piece to get them over the top. And both money cost and control combine nicely to help the Yankees out in player cost.

Since they can absorb the money and don’t have to worry about a long term commitment, the Yankees can insist on a lower player cost. Mike outlined the potential cost for Happ here and it seems pretty reasonable. Additionally, as Mike noted, the Yankees have the prospects to win a bidding war. The cost for Hamels is less clear, of course, but it’s doubtful that his cost would be much higher. Either way, the Yankees could acquire one of these pitchers without having to give up Clint Frazier or Justus Sheffield. Improve the team and keep two of the best prospects? Yes, please.

Both players have been solid performers, too. Happ has learned how to be a strikeout pitcher and has had four straight years of an ERA- no higher than 94. Likewise, Hamels–who has added a new pitch–has had no higher than a 92 ERA- in the last few years. Cole is experiencing a bit of a HR spike this year (HR/FB% of around 20%!), but that’s anomalous and should come down, even in Yankee Stadium.

Which one should the Yankees choose? My heart–which has loved Cole Hamels since his debut in 2006 (good god, I’m old)–wants Hamels. My head says that Happ is probably the better choice, since he doesn’t have the option/buyout looming. I’ll be typical, though, and say either one would be fine.

The Yankees are reportedly interested in J.A. Happ, the best rental starter on the trade market

June 19, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is exactly six weeks away and, now that the draft is over, the first wave of trade rumors are starting to roll in. It is no secret the Yankees are looking for rotation help, and, according to Jon Morosi, they have interest in Blue Jays southpaw J.A. Happ. Morosi says the Mariners have interest too. I’m guessing many other teams do as well.

Happ is having a rock solid season for the Blue Jays, pitching to a 3.48 ERA (3.42 FIP) with a career best strikeout rate (28.1%) and walk (7.5%) and ground ball (46.4%) rates better than his career averages (8.7% and 40.5%). He’s a rental — Happ is making $13M this year — and the Blue Jays stink, so either they’re going to trade him or they’re going to sign him to an extension. Hard to see them keeping him only to risk losing him for nothing (I guess a draft pick) as a free agent.

Trading with the Blue Jays might not be easy because of the whole AL East rivalry thing — the Yankees and Blue Jays did hook up for the Rob Refsnyder trade last year, though their last meaningful deal was the Raul Mondesi trade in 2002 — but it shouldn’t be impossible. If you’re the Blue Jays and you’re out of the race, why wouldn’t you trade a rental to a division rival? Happ’s not going to hurt Toronto this year and they’d get some sweet Yankees prospects to boot. Three things about a potential Happ trade.

1. He’s familiar with the AL East and that’s not nothing. The AL East is not an easy place to pitch and that is especially true when you call Yankee Stadium home. Happ has been in the division for several years now and he’s pitched very well, and he was part of the 2016 Blue Jays team that went to the ALCS. He’s pitched in big games at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park. It won’t be new to him. You never really know how a player will adjust to a new environment after being traded and that is especially true with pitchers coming to the AL East. Happ has been there, done that. He knows the ropes. In theory, the transition should be seamless.

2. It could be an audition for next year as well. Happ is a rental, so if you trade for him, you’re making the trade to improve your 2018 chances. That’s all. Those however many weeks he spends in your uniform after the trade do effectively serve as an audition for next season though. If he performs well and fits into your clubhouse nicely and enjoys his time with the team, re-signing him as a free agent is absolutely an option.

Remember, Jordan Montgomery is not coming back next season. At least not until later in the season. Also, CC Sabathia may retire. Depending on their trade deadline activity, the Yankees could very well need a starting pitcher this offseason, and if they trade for Happ and he pitches well, why wouldn’t they look to re-sign him? He’s good and it’d be preferable to bringing in someone you have no background with, you know?

This works both ways as well. Remember when the Yankees acquired Chase Headley? He said he came to New York not expecting to like it, then he fell in love with the place and took less money to re-sign with the team when he became a free agent. Maybe the Yankees trade for Happ and he falls in love with the organization. Or maybe he hates it and won’t consider re-signing with them. That’s good to know too!

Trade for Happ and you’re trading for him to help you win the 2018 World Series. That’s it. That’s the goal. The fringe benefit is getting to know him firsthand — the only Yankee who has been teammates with Happ previously is Neil Walker, and that was only for two months in 2015, so Brian Cashman can’t glean much information about Happ the person from his roster — which is useful information come free agency. Happ helps you win this year and you get a chance to determine whether he can help you win in the future.

3. What’s it going to cost? The million dollar question. Happ is very good and very affordable — trade for him on the July 31st deadline and his luxury tax hit would be about $4.4M, which fits comfortably into the luxury tax plan — and several teams figure to be after him (Mariners, Dodgers, Nationals, Braves, Brewers, etc.), so the team that gets him will have to win the bidding war.

The Yankees, fortunately, have the prospects to win any bidding war. That doesn’t necessarily mean they should pay whatever it takes to get Happ. It just means they’re not at a prospect disadvantage here. They can get pretty much anyone they want. Here are some recent rental starter trades that may serve as a Happ trade benchmark:

Jaime Garcia: Traded for an organizational top 30 prospect (Zack Littell) and a depth arm (Dietrich Enns).
Yu Darvish: Traded for a top 50-ish prospect (Willie Calhoun) and two organizational top 30 prospects (Brendon Davis and A.J. Alexy).
Andrew Cashner: Traded for an organizational to ten prospect (Josh Naylor) and two broken MLB arms (Carter Capps and Jarred Cosart).
Mike Leake: Traded for an organizational top ten prospect (Keury Mella) and a young MLB ready player (Adam Duvall).

Do any of those seem like a reasonable trade benchmark for Happ? The best match is Darvish, right? And you know what, Happ is pitching much better right now than Darvish was the time of his trade, and he didn’t come with any of the injury red flags either. Darvish was less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery at the time of the trade. Happ has made at least 25 starts in four of the last five years, and the one time he didn’t, it was because he got hit in the head by a line drive.

My trade proposal sucks, but I wonder whether the Yankees could build a package around Albert Abreu (a top 100 prospect) and supplement it with a big league ready player the Yankees have no room for like Tyler Wade, Billy McKinney, or Josh Rogers. Something like Abreu, Wade (the Blue Jays desperately need an actual shortstop), and third lower level piece for Happ. Blue Jays fans will say it’s not enough, Yankees fans will say it’s too much. So it goes.

My preference is a younger pitcher with long-term control because the Yankees have a young team and it would be cool to address this year’s pitching needs and future pitching needs with one move. Absent that, I think Happ is the best rental on the market, even better than Cole Hamels given Hamels’ home run issues. Happ’s recent success is not a fluke. He’s elevating his fastball more than ever and pitching inside more effectively. We’ll see how the bidding war plays out. As far as I’m concerned, Happ is a very good and very obvious fit for the Yankees.

The Yankees may have to work out a deal with a rival when the time comes to trade for a starter

May 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

At some point in the next two months the Yankees will trade for a starting pitcher. Who exactly? I’m not sure. I am confident it’ll happen though. Sonny Gray is still lost and no one really knows what to expect from post-elbow injury Jordan Montgomery. Even if Montgomery comes back and is great, the Yankees could still use another starter.

The big name trade target right now is Cole Hamels, mostly because he is an impending free agent on a terrible team, but also because people are sick of talking about Michael Fulmer and Chris Archer. The Yankees saw Hamels last week and he pitched well against them, and nothing gets fans’ attention quite like pitching well against the Yankees.

Other pitchers, including some surprise names, will jump into the trade conversation in the coming weeks. It’s inevitable. Happens every year. Good pitchers on bad teams is always the best place to start when trying to predict trade possibilities, and two immediately jump to mind:

J.A Happ: 3.84 ERA (3.44 FIP) with 29.5 K% and 47.9 GB% in 65.2 innings
Jacob deGrom: 1.52 ERA (2.11 FIP) with 32.8 K% and 43.9 GB% in 65.1 innings

The Blue Jays are a very distant fourth in the AL East and they are competing with no fewer than six teams in the Wild Card race. Happ is an impending free agent, so unless the Blue Jays make a miraculous run at some point before the deadline, one of two things will likely happen: Either they sign Happ to an extension or they’ll trade him.

As for the Mets, they have crashed back to Earth hard since their 11-1 start. They split yesterday’s doubleheader with the Braves to drop to 26-25 on the season. There are three teams ahead of them in the NL East race and seven teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race. It’s not difficult to envision them slipping even further out of the race going forward.

The Mets trading deGrom is, obviously, a much greater long shot than the Blue Jays trading Happ. Happ’s an impending free agent and they might loose him for nothing after the season. deGrom is under team control through 2020. Keeping him would be a very defensible move. Heck, he might go down as a top four Mets pitcher all-time.

If Happ and especially deGrom become available at the trade deadline, it goes without saying the Yankees should get involved. Both represent rotation upgrades and are pitchers any team could comfortably start in a postseason game. That’s what the Yankees are looking for, right? Not someone to get them through the season. They want a true difference-maker.

There is one small problem with the Yankees trading for Happ and/or deGrom: They play for rival teams. The Blue Jays are a division rival and intradivision trades are always tough. There’s a reason they’re uncommon. As for deGrom, it has been a very long time since the Yankees and Mets made a significant trade. Imagine one of this caliber? Involving a true ace? Goodness.

Trading with a rival is not impossible, just complicated. The Yankees have the young talent to beat any trade offer. They’re not at a disadvantage there. It’s just a question of whether the Blue Jays or Mets will trade with the Yankees, and if so, what’ll it cost? Will the Yankees have to overpay to make it happen? It’s easy to say that, if the Yankees make the best offer, the Blue Jays or Mets should take it, but we know things aren’t that simple. PR hits matter.

In a perfect world the Mets will continue to fall out of the race and make deGrom available. He’s my ideal trade target. He’s excellent and under control another two years. Tell the Mets to take any four players not on the MLB roster and call it a deal. If that doesn’t work, Happ would be a fine consolation prize (at a much lower price).

The trade market will develop over the next few weeks and I am certain a few surprise names will be made available. It happens every year. Happ and deGrom stand out as potential trade targets given their teams’ situations, though both guys plays for rivals, so the Yankees could have a hard time swinging a trade. Enough of a hard time that they may have to look elsewhere.