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Johnson still trying to find a groove

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Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

Despite his early struggles, Nick Johnson remains an on-base machine. He hasn’t fared well on balls in play, as just nine of 44 have dropped in for hits. That amounts to a .182 BABIP, an unsustainably low mark. That’s part of the good news. The bad news is that while his BABIP projects much higher, it appears as though he’ll have to make a few adjustments in order to recover. There appears to be a bit more at play than mere bad luck on balls in play.

From 2001 through 2006 Johnson put the ball in play in 62 percent of his plate appearances. He then missed all of 2007 and most of 2008. When he came back in 2009 he put the ball in play 64 percent of the time. This season he has managed to make fair contact in just 48 percent of his plate appearances. He’s putting many of those in the air, 19 fly balls to 16 ground balls and 10 line drives. Two of those 19 have been infield pop ups. Previously in his career Johnson has put more balls on the ground.

On batted ball types, though, we have a pretty small sample. Again, he’s put the ball in play just 44 times in 91 PA. What does he do the rest of the time? Walk and strike out. Both rates are at the highest they’ve ever been in his career. In 24.2 percent of his plate appearances Johnson has drawn a walk, a mark that has helped him avoid making outs while slumping. If Mark Teixeira didn’t slump throughout April and Alex Rodriguez wasn’t going through a mini slump himself, perhaps Johnson would have scored more than 10 runs so far.

His strikeout rate presents a bit of a concern. It sits at 32.8 percent*, the highest mark in the AL. He hasn’t been within 10 percent of that mark since 2004. What strikes me here isn’t the high strikeout rate so much as the breakdown. Of his 22 strikeouts, 15 have been looking. It’s not as if he’s overmatched and can’t get his bat around, or else is fooled by the pitcher. He’s just being extremely selective with two strikes and is paying the price. The latter seems more correctable, so that’s a positive sign. Still, he’s not helping the team by looking at so many strike threes.

*Note: FanGraphs bases K% on AB and BB% on PA. Not sure why, but that’s what I’m working with right now.

Looking at his swing data, we see more troubling signs. He has seen fewer pitches in the zone than at any point in his career, which shows up in his walk rate. Yet his walk rate could actually be higher. He has swung at 18.9 percent of pitches outside the zone, again a high water mark for his career. He’s making contact with these pitches at an unprecedented rate as well, which usually translates to bad contact. That likely factors into his BABIP. He’s swinging at fewer pitches inside the zone, too, though he’s making excellent contact when he does swing at those. Finally, he’s seen by far more first-pitch strikes this year, so perhaps pitchers are taking advantage of his selective nature. He’s either seen an 0-1 count or put the ball in play in 53 of his 91 PA.

It’s tough to put this all together, since there’s so much going on. He’s seeing more strikes than ever before, but is swinging at fewer of them, leading to a high strikeout rate based on strike threes looking. He’s chasing more pitches outside the zone and making more contact on them, which in all likelihood leads to bad outcomes. I’m willing to bet that his slightly increased fly ball rate results from the out-of-zone swinging. His saving grace is that he’s taking walks and therefore not making outs as frequently as others hitting under .200. He ranks 29th in the AL in OBP, and has the lowest average among the top 35 by more than .100.

We can look at Johnson’s BABIP and say he’s due for a correction, and in a way that’s true. In this case, however, there are many more factors to consider. Kevin Long talked about helping Johnson make adjustments, especially on the inside pitch. Is Johnson just taking time to get into a groove? Or is there something going on that just doesn’t work for him? He’s getting on base enough to justify a spot in the lineup, so perhaps he’ll settle in and work things out. Perhaps a move downward wouldn’t be the worst idea at this point.

Yanks offense still waiting for Teixeira and Johnson

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Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

Through the season’s first 18 games the Yankees’ offense, as a unit, has performed around expectations. The team has scored 5.33 runs per game, second in the AL to the Rays. Yet when looking at the AL rankings, something stands out. The Yankees have a 124 OPS+, which leads the league by a decent margin. Why, then, do they not lead the league in runs scored? The answer lies atop the lineup.

Derek Jeter has done his job this season. Through 80 PA he’s hitting .316/.350/.474. It’s not up to his career standards, particularly in the OBP department, that will likely change as we get further into the season. His OBP sat at .363 through 80 PA last season, and was as low as .333 in 138 PA. It’s the man who follows him, Nick Johnson, who has been struggling. Through 72 PA he’s hitting .135, though his frequent walks boost his OBP to .375. While no one is happy with Johnson’s BA, it’s not a huge concern. That will surely rise as the season progresses. Meanwhile, his main task is to get on base for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, and so far he has done an admirable job.

Why, then, has Johnson scored only seven runs if he has been on base 27 times? For that we need a bit more context, which comes from Mark Teixeira’s poor start. Like Johnson, Teixeira is currently taking a cruise down the interstate. His .119 through 82 PA is nothing short of a disaster. Again, this is something we probably have to get used to. Through 134 PA last year he was hitting .191. We know, however, that the payoff will prove worthy. From May 13 through the end of the season Teixeira hit .315/.396/.597 and was an integral part of the Yankees’ mid-season burst.

In addition to their poor batting averages, Teixeira and Johnson have also hit for little power. Teixeira’s ISO sits at .134, Johnson’s at .096. Of the other seven regulars, only Brett Gardner ranks below them. This obviously decreases their run-producing potential. Both Gardner and Jeter have gotten on base at an above-average clip, but with the two hitters behind them not producing base hits, and also not hitting for power, they’re not coming around to score as often. Likewise, even though Johnson is getting on base via the walk, Teixeira is making enough outs that he’s leaving Johnson stranded. Unsurprisingly, Johnson ranks second to last on the Yanks with a 23 percent run scored rate. Only Nick Swisher, the No. 8 hitter, ranks lower. Teixeira, on the other hand, has A-Rod hitting behind him, and despite getting on base far less frequently than Johnson, has scored 38 percent of the time.

Once the top of the order starts hitting, we could see the Yankees offense take off just like it did last season. Other factors will obviously change along the way: Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner will surely settle down, but their decreased production won’t nearly off-set the gains we should soon see from Teixeira and Johnson. No one wants to hear “just be patient” when players on their favorite team have struggled, but that’s the only thing to do right now. This is a clear case of a slow start. The payoff will be worth the wait.

Johnson out until Tuesday with a stiff back

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The Yankees won convincingly with their regular designated hitter and number two hitter on the bench yesterday, but they thought they would have him back in the lineup today. Turns out that Nick Johnson’s stiff back was a little worse than he originally let on, and he’s going to be out of the lineup until Tuesday’s series opener in Baltimore. Apparently he thought a little whirlpool action would loosen things up, but alas.

Johnson isn’t concerned about this being a long-term issue, but everyone’s going to hold their breath when dealing with a guy with his injury history. He’s stuck in a little 1-for-23 slump (the hit came Friday), but NJ has also drawn nine walks and gotten hit by a pitch during that time, so he’s still getting on base.

The good, the bad and the Nick Johnson

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Nick Johnson heads back to the bench after striking out. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

What does a team do when its designated hitter isn’t fulfilling the second half of his job description? That’s the question many who watch the Yankees have been asking themselves lately as Nick Johnson, the team’s DH, has struggled to hit.

After an 0-for-4 performance yesterday, Johnson is now hitting .125 with a still-robust .382 on-base percentage and a very low .229 slugging mark. Frustration seemed to be creeping into Johnson’s approach too as the usually patient lefty saw just 16 pitches in four plate appearances, a bit off his 4.6 pitches per PA mark. At least he leads the league with 18 walks, but the team was hoping for more offensive production from its two hitter.

As Nick has scuffled with the stick, reporters have asked Joe Girardi his take on the DH’s slow start, and the Yanks’ skipper defended Johnson. “I don’t think anyone is complaining about how much he’s on base,” Girardi said. “Sometimes you look at his batting average and you think that he’s really struggling and maybe not helping the team, but you look at how much he’s been on base, and he’s helping us.”

It’s certainly true that Nick Johnson is helping the team. Getting on base 38.2 percent of the time is a remarkable figure even for players who hit .300. That Johnson is doing it while racking up just one hit every eight at-bats is a testament to his value to the team. It comes across in his wOBA as well. At .327 prior to yesterday’s game, Johnson’s wOBA speaks of a player struggling less than it may seem.

Other factors too suggest an impending course correction. Johnson has struck out 36.4 percent of time this season, and his career mark is 20.9 percent. Perhaps he’s finding it a bit difficult at first to adjust to the American League after spending parts of six seasons in the Senior Circuit. As that number dips, he’ll be putting more balls in play which brings me to Johnson’s BABIP. Again prior to yesterday, Johnson’s batting average on balls in play was a woeful .185. While Johnson isn’t putting the ball in play during 53 percent of his plate appearances, the ball just isn’t falling.

There is, however, one stat that does concern me in addition to the strike outs. Johnson’s line drive percentage is a robust 25, but his ground ball and fly ball rates are backwards. He’s hitting grounders 25 percent of the time and fly balls 50 percent of the time. I know he and Kevin Long worked on elevating the ball during Spring Training to take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and it’s possible that in the early goings, this change is taking its toll. However, small sample size warnings apply.

Much as Austin Jackson’s .500 BABIP won’t last, Johnson’s low marks will be a thing of the past soon enough. He’s a .310 BABIP player for his career, and as he both cuts down on the strike outs and continues to put the ball in play, eventually, the hits will pile up. Marcus Thames has done nothing but hit each time the Yanks have opted to play him, but Johnson will and should remain the DH. The balls will fall, and the production will soon increase. It’s just the nature of the game as April wears on.

Yanks hit Angels hard in Stadium return

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Photo credit: Bill Kostroun/AP

Derek Jeter said it best: “It feels like the season doesn’t get started until we play the home opener.” While the past week of baseball has provided nothing but enjoyment, the man has a point. Getting off the 4 train, walking to the Stadium among fellow die-hards, ascending the staircase to the grandstands — it made baseball seem real again. It helped that the Yankees continued their hot start, slapping around the Angels, at least for the first eight innings, en route to their fifth win of the season.

Biggest Hit: Nick Johnson’s solo shot

Photo credit: Bill Kostroun/AP

As he’s done so many times since moving to the leadoff spot, Derek Jeter swung at the first pitch of the game, a 92 mph fastball from Ervin Santana. He pulled the inside pitch to Brandon Wood at third, who tossed the ball across the diamond to Kendry Morales for the first out. The Yankee Stadium speakers then played an odd tune for a ballgame, “Party in the USA” by Miley Cyrus. It was the at-bat music for the No. 2 hitter, Nick Johnson, who had chosen it because of his daughter.

Hopefully he changes it tomorrow.

It appeared that Santana and catcher Jeff Mathis had a plan. The first, a fastball, hit the outside corner for called strike one. They went back outside on the second pitch, but that one missed considerably, evening the count at 1-1. Again Santana went for the outside fastball, but this one caught a bit too much of the plate. Johnson laid into it, crushing it into the right field bleachers for the first home run in his return to the Yankees. It boosted the Yankees’ chances of winning by 9.5 percent, a good shift for the first inning.

Honorable Mention: Jeter to the pen

Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

After retiring Jeter on just one pitch in the first, Ervin Santana fell behind 2-0 during their second battle. He missed with a fastball high for ball one, and then couldn’t catch the inside corner with a backdoor slider. The next pitch he served up, a 91 mph fastball down the middle. Jeter put a pretty swing on it, and put the Yankees up 2-0. That one, according to WPA, was worth just slightly less than Johnson’s shot, a 9.2 percent increase. With Andy rolling through three, the second solo homer of the game was a good base for the Yanks.

Biggest Pitch: Juan Rivera singles in the sixth / Wood walks

Photo credit: Bill Kostroun/AP

I bet you weren’t expecting that. Most people, I’m willing to bet, would have rated Bobby Abreu’s ninth-inning grand slam off David Robertson as the biggest hit for the Angels. This presents an opportunity to explain the underpinnings of WPA. Even though Abreu’s home run put more runs on the board than any other Angels’ hit, it didn’t necessarily bring them any closer to winning the game. After he hit it, his team was still down by two runs and had the bases empty with just two outs remaining. The odds of them winning at that point, in other words, were not that good.

In the fifth inning, however, thanks to some missed opportunities, the Yankees held just a 3-0 lead. Jeff Mathis singled to lead off the inning. When the next batter, Brandon Wood, walked, the Angels brought the tying run to the plate. This represented a 6.4 percent gain in WPA, because it brought the Angels closer to tying the game. Similarly, in the sixth inning Juan Rivera singled, advancing Howie Kendrick to third. That again brought the tying run to the plate, and was also a 6.4 percent gain in WPA.

Both of those hits brought the tying run to the plate. Abreu’s did not. It might have put the Angels in a better position to come back, but it did not directly lead to a game-tying opportunity. Wood’s and Rivera’s at-bats did. That is why they were credited with a 6.4 percent gain in WPA, while Abreu’s homer brought the Angles just 2.6 percent. The odds of them scoring two more runs with the bases empty and one out were just not that high.

Thank you, Mr. Kendrick

As described above, Juan Rivera singled with one out in the sixth to bring the tying run, Howie Kendrick, to the plate. Pettitte got ahead with a cutter, but missed the zone with his next three pitches, tipping the count in Kendrick’s favor. Pettitte delivered his second straight fastball, a hittable pitch about thigh high and over the plate, and Kendrick grounded it right to Jeter. He flipped to Cano, who threw to first to complete the double play and end the minor threat.

Looking back on the at-bat in Gameday, it could have turned out much worse. Kendrick is a dead fastball hitter. Pettitte delivered a pretty hittable fastball in a hitter’s count. It could have been a turning point for the Angels. Instead, it was the biggest negative WPA swing on offense for them.

Andy’s strikeout rate

Andy Pettitte does not look like a strikeout pitcher. His fastball hits low 90s at times, but he works mostly off his secondary stuff — the cutter/slider, the curve, the change. He uses it effectively, tough, keeping hitter off-balance by mixing his pitches well. Of his 100 pitches, only 52 were fastballs. He mixed in 25 cutters, 14 curveballs, and eight changeups — plus one unclassified pitch. He did allow eight baserunners in the game, five hits and three walks, but he helped stifle them by striking out six. It was all part of another quality start by Pettitte.

Things that made me smile

Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

Matsui’s ovation, obviously. The fans cheered him when he received his World Series ring, but the biggest ovation came when he came to bat in the first inning. We all miss Matsui, though with the way the team’s playing right now I’m not sure many people particularly care. That, of course, will change, and then change back, multiples times during the season. Have I mentioned that I love baseball?

Posada just continues to destroy the baseball. He went 3 for 4 yesterday with two doubles, raising his season average to .429. It won’t last all season, obviously, but it’s a nice opening statement from a guy who had a few question marks heading into the season.

Robinson Cano also has been hammering the ball out of the gate.

Also, Chan Ho’s outing was nice as well. The home run was a bit annoying, but it was Kendry Morales and he’ll do that sometimes. Otherwise, Park looked strong again.

Things that annoyed me

The ninth inning, obviously. It really couldn’t have been worse for Robertson. He actually got a gift, in that Kendrick did not score from second on Brandon Wood’s single. He then struck out Erick Aybar, a good sign. The Yankees could afford the run if Robertson needed to trade one for an out. Instead he threw two fastballs to Abreu, both around the same spot, and watched the ball fly out into the right field stands. Again, it didn’t really bring the Angels a ton closer to winning, especially since the home run brought on the save situation. Still, highly annoying.

The Yankees also failed to cash in some baserunners early in the game. Had Andy run into trouble that would have been even more annoying. They did rack up seven runs on 13 hits, though, so I guess it balanced itself by game’s end.

WPA Chart

As always, to FanGraphs with you for the full WPA breakdown, play log, and box score.

Next up

It’s another day game tomorrow, Javy Vazquez vs. groundball machine Joel Pineiro.

Spring Training Health Report: Everyone’s okay

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The Yankees suffered a rash of minor injuries in the final week of camp, but they’ll have everyone available when the season begins tomorrow night. To put it succinctly, Jorge Posada’s stiff neck is fine, Nick Johnson’s bruised knee is better, Damaso Marte’s shoulder isn’t cranky, and Al Aceves lower back is a-okay. Frankie Cervelli’s sore hamstring is good to go as well, and he’ll be available off the bench. Thankfully everyone’s healthy, and the Yanks can start the season with everyone intact.

Spring Training Health Report: Johnson, Aceves, Catchers

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Earlier today we found out that Damaso Marte has a cranky shoulder, but that’s not the extent of the Yankees’ injury woes. Nick Johnson left today’s game in the first inning after fouling a pitch of his right knee, and has been diagnosed with a bone bruise. He won’t do anything tomorrow, but is confident that he’ll be in the lineup Sunday night against the Red Sox. After battling a sore lower back, Al Aceves threw an inning in a minor league game today and felt fine, but the team is going to wait and see how he feels tomorrow before determining his status for the regular season opener.

Last but certainly not least, the Yankees’ top three catchers all appear to be on the mend. Jorge Posada‘s stiff neck is doing well and there’s a chance he’ll play tomorrow, while Frankie Cervelli‘s hamstring feels better. He won’t play tomorrow, but caught in the bullpen and took some swings in batting practice today. Third string Mike Rivera started today for the first time in two weeks after dealing with a hamstring of his own, and he even picked up a hit to raise his spring average to .167. Minor bumps and bruises all around, let’s just be thankful it’s nothing more serious.