River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Nick Johnson » Page 5

Past Trade Review: Cashman’s Top 5 Blunders

by 38 Comments

Yesterday I listed Brian Cashman’s three most lopsided trades. Those, of course, all fell in his favor. Yet he’s not immune from the bad trade. His blunders aren’t as great as his successes — it’s tough to make up the wins he gained by acquiring Alex Rodriguez, Bobby Abreu, and Nick Swisher — but he’s still lost on a number of deals. Here are the trades that cost the Yankees the most in terms of WAR.

(Note: Since many of the deals happened before 2002, I’ll use the historical WAR database to determine the values.)

Mike Lowell

When thinking about Cashman’s worst trades, the first that came to mind was Mike Lowell. In 1999 he shipped Lowell to Florida for a package that featured Ed Yarnall, long coveted by the Yankees. Chances are Lowell wouldn’t have gotten the 339 plate appearances he did for the Marlins in 1999, because Scott Brosius would have been coming off a career year. Still, we can’t try to figure out when a player’s clock would have started. We’re still going with first six years, though his 339 plate appearances indicate that he’d have a seventh year before free agency.

From 1999 through 2005 Lowell was worth 16.4 WAR. Ed Yarnall was worth 0.3 in 1999 and -0.3 in 2000, leaving his overall WAR at zero. Mark J. Johnson was worth -0.6, and Todd Noel never made the majors. This certainly ranks as Cashman’s biggest blunder.

Loss: 17 WAR

Photo credit: Alan Diaz/AP

Damaso Marte

Not even a half season after signing him as a free agent, the Yankees traded lefty reliever Damaso Marte to the Pirates for Enrique Wilson. Apparently he hit well against Pedro Martinez, which is a perfectly acceptable reason to make a trade. Sarcasm aside, I don’t remember much of this trade, and so it likely went uncriticized in the press. Marte, at the time, had pitched just 8.2 major league innings. Upon his call-up to the Pirates he got hit around a bit in 36.1 innings and was worth 0 WAR. That would quickly change.

Over the next six years Marte was worth 7.9 WAR. Wilson actually cost the Yankees wins, as he was worth -2.2 WAR. It seems odd that such a minor trade would carry double-digit win implications, but this was the case with Wilson and Marte.

Loss: 10.1 WAR

Photo credit: Steve Nesius/AP

Ted Lilly

Thankfully, Ted Lilly was the only player of note the Yankees traded for Jeff Weaver. I remember the concern at the time that trading John-Ford Griffin could come back to bite them. He had hit very well at Staten Island during his debut in 2001, and was having a fairly decent, Austin Jackson-like surge upon his promotion to AA in 2002. He was also the No. 76 prospect in the game headed into that season. Yet it was Lilly whom the Yankees could have used in the following years.

As we well know, Ted Lilly qualified for free agency after the 2006 season. From the point the Yankees traded him in 2002 he was worth 9.7 WAR. Weaver, during his season and a half with the Yankees, was worth 1.1 WAR. That breaks down to 1.4 WAR in the second half of 2002 and -0.3 WAR in 2003. They still had him under team control for a few years, but instead packaged him in a deal for Kevin Brown. Brown was worth 2.5 wins in 2005, but -0.9 in 2004. Even if we count that, which we won’t, it doesn’t come close to balancing out Lilly’s 9.7 WAR.

Loss: 8.6 WAR

Photo credit: Ben Margot/AP

Nick Johnson, Randy Choate, Juan Rivera

After the losses of David Wells, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettitte, the Yankees clearly had to reload their rotation. One measure they took was to acquire Javy Vazquez from the Expos. He didn’t come cheap, of course. At the time he was just 28 years old and was coming off four straight seasons pitching more than 200 innings. It cost the Yankees Nick Johnson, who was blocked by Jason Giambi, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate. Considering the Yankees kept Vazquez for just one year, it certainly cost them.

During his sole pinstriped season Vazquez was worth 2.3 WAR. He added another 4.6 WAR over the next two seasons, the terms of his contract with the Yankees. They traded him for Randy Johnson, who was worth 5.8 WAR as a Yankee. That helps soften the blow, but doesn’t completely erase it (especially since we’re not counting it). Johnson currently has nine years’ of service time, so he would have been eligible for free agency after the 2006 season. From 2004 through 2006 he was worth 8.9 WAR. Juan Rivera would have been under team control through 2008, during which time he produced 1.8 WAR for the Expos and Angels. I have no idea how long Choate would have been under control, but he was 0.4 in 2004, -0.4 in 2005, and 0.0 in 2006 and 2007, so he’s a wash in any case.

Loss: 8.4 WAR

Photo credit: H. Rumph, Jr./AP

Ramon Ramirez

In 2005 the Yankees desperately needed rotation help. It seemed everyone was getting hurt. They turned to an unknown minor league lifer named Aaron Small to fill a spot, and right around the trade deadline they acquired Shawn Chacon from the Rockies in exchange for two relievers, Eduardo Sierra and Ramon Ramirez. Having been solidly in my blogging days, I researched these guys but didn’t find much. The need, at the time, for starting pitching was too great to think about two minor league relievers.

Fortunately, Chacon helped the Yankees make the playoffs that year. Unfortunately, that was about the extent of his value to the team. Meanwhile, Ramirez pitched well for the Rockies, Royals, and Red Sox following the trade. He has been worth 4.0 WAR in his four major league seasons. Chacon helped enormously with his 2.7 WAR in 2005, but negated much of that with a -1.2 number in 2006, making his total 1.5. That’s only a 3.5 WAR loss, so no big deal, right? The problem is that Ramirez is still under team control for three more years, and could continue to widen that gap.

Loss: 3.5 WAR and counting

Photo credit: Nick Wass/AP

2010 Season Preview: Designated table-setter

by 44 Comments

On a team loaded with older players and bloated contracts, the designated hitter position was one the Yankees often used to hide a particularly decrepit player during the mid-aughts. Hideki Matsui fit that bill in 2009, though unlike many of his predecessors, he was tremendously productive with the bat. However, with his ticking time-bomb knees now residing in Orange County, the Yanks to turned to a familiar face to be their DH, and are also asking him to do something different than be a lumbering run-producer, in the traditional sense of the term.

As a group, Yankee DH’s hit .269-.362-.497 with a .371 wOBA last season, with Matsui receiving approximately three-fourths of the playing time at the position. Among players who came to the plate at least 400 times as a DH, Godzilla hit the most homers (27), was second in RBI (86), batting average (.270), and slugging percentage (.506), and was third in doubles (20), on-base percentage (.361), and OPS (.866). On top of all that, he was the World Series MVP after a .615-.643-1.385 (.815 wOBA) performance against the Phillies. But instead of replacing him with another middle of the order thumper to bat behind Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, the Yanks grabbed a player to hit in front of them.

Nick Johnson, the former Yankee third round pick, was brought back to town on a one-year deal worth $5.75M (plus some incentives and a mutual option) with the idea of deploying his supreme on-base skills in front of Tex and A-Rod. Johnson is one of just 11 players with an OBP of .400 or better since he made his big league debut in the second half of 2001, yet he’s the only one of the group to never appear in an All-Star Game or earn eight figures in a single season. Like Matsui, the lefty swinging Johnson can more than hold his own against southpaws (.290-.423-.427, .386 wOBA career) and has shown the ability to produce in high leverage situations (.290-.434-.482, another.386 wOBA). With more walks (432) than strikeouts (410) since 2003 and the ability to murder fastballs, Johnson seems like an ideal two-hole hitter for a lineup designed to work the count and grind the opposing starter into a fine powder by the fifth inning.

But there’s a catch. Johnson’s military-style plate discipline and lack of a platoon split and relatively cheap contract comes with the caveat of questionable health. He’s missed 557 of 1,098 possible days (50.7%) due to injury since the Yankees traded him away after the 2003 season, including all of 2007 and most of 2008 with a broken leg and wrist issues. Joe chronicled all of Johnson’s health issues a few months ago, and thankfully it appears most of his ailments were flukes. However, with an injury history that long, it’s impossible to feel comfortable with the idea of Johnson playing 150 games and getting 650 plate appearances next year. The Yankees hope that keeping Johnson away from the rigors of playing the field will help keep them healthy, which sounds great in theory.

That wrist injury from 2008, a torn sheath tendon suffered on a swing that required surgery, could be the culprit behind Johnson’s lack of power in 2009. His eight homers were the fewest he’s ever hit in a season in which he came to plate at least 300 times, majors or minors, and his .114 isolated power was the same as notable noodle-bats Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Sweeney. It’s not uncommon for a player to lose some power for a year or so following wrist surgery, and the Yankees are going to have to hope Johnson regains some pop as he gets further and further away from the injury.

Here’s what the projection systems have in store for Johnson…

We have some variation amongst the systems regarding playing time, obviously the result of Johnson’s sketchy medical history. Luckily, they see his power rebounding to essentially league average (.151 IsoP), and his overall .273-.408-.424, .377 wOBA performance is well above average. Combine that with zero defense and -3.0 runs on the bases (Johnson’s average during his three seasons of at least 500 plate appearances), and you’ve essentially got a two win player (1.9 WAR, to be exact). If he managed another 100 or so plate appearances, he’d be worth 2.4 WAR. Remember that DH’s get docked big time because of the complete lack of positional value.

Now, if Johnson were to miss significant time due to injury, his likely replacement would be Triple-A masher Juan Miranda. CHONE projects a .340 wOBA for Miranda in 460 plate appearances, which is above average but not by much. I’ve already said that I don’t think he would be much of a DH option for 2010, and I’m sticking to it. Another name that is sure to pop up is that of superprospect Jesus Montero. CHONE projects over 300 plate appearances of .314 wOBA hitting from the 20-year-old next year, but I can’t see the Yankees rushing him up to occupy a very easy to fill spot when it would be in his and the organization’s best interest to play every day and work on his defense in Triple-A. Montero’s a possibility, but he shouldn’t be considered anything more than an outside one.

The Yankees could have gone a number of ways when filling their vacant DH spot. They could have re-signed Matsui and his chronically bad knees, or they could signed one of the many slugging DH types perpetually available on the open market, or they could have used it as a revolving door to keep some of the older players on their roster fresh. Instead, they opted to bring in a player who’s skill set can help maximize the already immense production of their 3-4 hitters by setting the table near the top of the lineup. Now they just need him to stay healthy.

Photo Credit: Antonelli, NY Daily News

Johnson takes swings, set to play Monday

by 11 Comments

Nick Johnson, the Yanks’ own version of Mr. Glass, became the first casualty of Spring Training last week when his back tightened after he caught his cleat on the turf in the batting cage. While many in the media were up in the arms over the Yanks’ reliance on the fragile lefty, Nick and the Yanks insisted he was fine. The team opted to take it slowly so that the DH would be feeling strong, and he probably could have played had it been the regular season. This morning, we learn via Joe Auriemma that Nick took 50 swings in cage, is feelin’ good just like he knew he would and plans to play Monday. And exhale.

Backing up the brittle DH

by 110 Comments

Updated (9:50 a.m.) When Nick Johnson was scratched from the lineup yesterday afternoon with a sore back, the Yankee Universe let out a collective groan. Here it goes again; the injury bug bites Nick Johnson.

Of course, the injury ended up being nothing very much, and the Yankees say the team is just taking it slow during day two of Spring Training. Nick caught his cleat while taking some swings in the cage, and he could have played had it been the regular season. He’ll sit out a day or two and find himself right back in the lineup this week. Lest we forget, Jorge Posada’s surgically repaired shoulder was giving everyone conniptions last spring as well. There’s always a sore something somewhere.

But Johnson’s injury got me thinking. What if Nick were to go down? What would the Yankees do with that DH slot? Johnson has been summoned to replace Hideki Matsui as the Yanks’ go-to guy for DH. The team rightly doesn’t want to use the DH as a rotating half-day rest slot for their veterans because that would necessarily force Ramiro Peña or Francisco Cervelli, weak offensive options, into the lineup nearly every day. So Johnson, a high OBP guy with a lefty swing designed for Yankee Stadium, seemed an ideal choice.

In a sense, the Yankees don’t need a lot from Nick Johnson. Hideki Matsui hit .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs last year in 142 games, and he put up a WAR of 2.7, eighth best in a powerhouse lineup. If Johnson, a 2.5-win player last year, can give the Yanks a pair of wins for $5.5 million, the team will be quite pleased.

A problem emerges, though, if Johnson can’t do that. If he doesn’t make 135 starts, doesn’t get his 500 plate appearances, doesn’t produce a few wins out of the DH slot. If he gets injured and misses significant time, always a distinct possible with him, the Yankees will be out a DH.

Behind Johnson, the options for designated hitter are slim. The team has Randy Winn, Marcus Thames and Jamie Hoffmann in camp fighting for two roster spots. Last year, Winn was a 1.7-win player based on WAR, but that’s because he was 16.5 fielding runs above average. His offensive output — a .302 wOBA with 2 home runs in 538 plate appearances — makes him a non-option for the DH spot. Marcus Thames had a 0.1 WAR last year. No matter how that breaks down, he wasn’t doing much hitter at all. Jamie Hoffmann has played just 72 games at AAA.

Beyond these guys making waves in camp, Juan Miranda would offer the Yanks another lefty option for DH. He’s the first guy called up when the team needs a bat, and as his prodigious home run in Tampa at the end of 2009 showed us, he can certainly hit. He’s a career .280/.366/.474 hitter in the minors and blasted 19 home runs last year at AAA. He isn’t too vulnerable to lefties either, hitting .291/.367/.507 against them in just under 200 ABs last year. His Major League Equivalents don’t scream out success, but he’s an option.

The Yankees do have a rather tantalizing ace in the hole, but would they dare use it? Jesus Montero is, acccording to a video interview he did with YES, working hard to get to the Majors, and by all accounts, he has put on a hitting clinic in batting practice this spring. In his one in-game at-bat, he singled. He has the power and the stick to DH, but the Yanks shouldn’t rush him. He needs his AAA seasoning, and when the 20-year-old shows he can mash at AAA, the Yanks can begin to think about it. In the meantime, the team has three in-house choices, and Gary Sheffield remains a free agent.

For now, we’ll rely on Nick Johnson to carry the designated hitter slot for six months this year. He gets an Interleague Play break when the Yanks hit the NL in May and June, and with Robo-Tex manning first, Johnson won’t be asked to exert himself in the field. He should be able to withstand the pressures of the season, but if any player can’t stay healthy at DH, it’s Nick Jonson. And, please, no more cleats in the batting cages.

Photo by Kathy Willens/AP

The whole picture for the No. 2 hitter

by 29 Comments

Over the past few days we’ve looked at a few aspects of a quality No. 2 hitter. We want someone who will get on base and set the table for the heart of the order, but who also won’t ground into double plays when the leadoff man reaches. As it turns out, the guy who gets on base more grounds into far more double plays. Will those twin killings hurt the team more than his presence on the base paths helps it?

Since we’re working with the theoretical here I’ll use the Bill James projections, mostly because they assume a greater run environment. We really could have used any system, though, since we need only compare the systems to themselves.

Getting on base for Teixeira

Bill James projects Granderson to reach base in 35.3 percent of his plate appearances, and Johnson to reach in 41.4 percent. To make things easier, we’ll scale this to 600 plate appearances, which lies between each of their projections. That means Johnson would reach 248 times to Granderson’s 212. Beyond the obvious observation that Johnson would reach base 36 more times than Granderson, it also represents some fraction of those 36 where Granderson would end an inning.

That last point, I think, is sometimes overlooked when discussing players reaching base. Clearly, Johnson won’t keep 36 innings going where Granderson would end one. But if that’s true for even a third of them, it’s a dozen innings where Teixeira hits with a man on base rather than starting the next inning with the bases empty. Over his career Teixeira has hit .295/.400/.555 with men on base and .285/.357/.535 with the bases empty. Those dozen situations, then, could lead to a few extra runs over the course of a season.

Keeping Jeter on the base paths

Given the same number of plate appearances, we know Johnson will make fewer outs than Granderson. Unfortunately, sometimes the outs Johnson makes count double. He has come to the plate 594 times in his career facing a double play chance, and has hit into it 72 times, or 12.1 percent of the time. How much, then, does this offset his ability to get on base?

The Bill James projections peg Jeter for 152 singles and 64 walks, or 216 times reaching first base. It also projects him to bat 631 times, so we need to scale down the number to 600 PA, which puts it at 205 times. At a 12.1 percent GIDP rate, Johnson would erase Jeter 26 times. Granderson, however, grounds into a double play just 4.4 percent of the time, so he would erase Jeter only 9 times. That’s 17 additional instances, or 34 additional outs, for Johnson.

We often say that the most important thing a player can do at bat is not make an out. Each team gets only 27 outs per game, and only three before they have to clear the bases and start over, so those outs are the most valuable assets in the game. Using straight OBP in a 600 PA environment, we can expect Johnson to make 352 outs and Granderson 388. Once we add in their twin killings, though, we see that Johnson projects to make 378 outs and Granderson 397 — and that’s just considering Jeter’s instances of reaching first base.

More than one way to think about it

Clearly, the double play situation does not bode well for Johnson. He still projects to make fewer outs than Granderson, but the double plays make that a lot closer. Like all baseball issues, however, there are plenty more ways to look at the comparison.

Yes, Johnson might erase Jeter in 26 of the 205 times he reaches first base. No one wants to see that. But the flip side presents the number of times both Jeter and Johnson will reach base. Scaled to 600 PA, Jeter figures to reach base, but not hit a home run, 237 times. Holding consistent Johnson’s .414 OBP, that means that 98 times Teixeira will come to the plate either with both Jeter and Johnson on base, or otherwise with Johnson on base with Jeter sitting on the bench and a run on the board. With Granderson that figure falls to 84 instances.

Granderson, however, has a bit more power than Johnson right now. Scaled to 600 PA, Granderson projects to hit 51 extra base hits, which represents 8.5 percent of his plate appearances. Then again, Johnson projects to hit 49 extra base hits when scaled to 600 PA, so it might not be that big a difference. The enormous caveat here is that we’re scaling down Granderson’s and scaling up Johnson’s. I know it shouldn’t make a huge difference, but I feel a bit more comfortable with the former.

What about their results once they’ve reached base? According to Baseball Prospectus’s EQBRR, Granderson added 1.9 runs on the base paths. That doesn’t seem like a huge amount, especially for a player with his speed. Then again, his OBP fell to .330, which certainly plays a part. In 2008, when his OBP was .365, Granderson generated 5.8 runs on the base paths. Johnson was worth -2.1 runs on the bases, which doesn’t seem that bad considering his lack of speed. Still, we’re looking at something like a seven-run swing at 600 PA.

So who hits second?

From all indications, it’s Johnson. At this point, with a clean slate, I think that’s the right call. Even when factoring in double plays he makes fewer outs than Granderson, which means more opportunities to hit with men on base for Teixeira and A-Rod. At the outset that should be the No. 1 concern.

Of course, if the DPs become a problem, they could consider a swap. Granderson doesn’t figure to be a black hole in the two hole by any stretch. He can get around the bases, and he won’t erase Jeter too many times. But with the presence of Johnson on the roster, he’s the second best man for the job.

Johnson scratched with a stiff lower back

by 149 Comments

Update (2:20pm): Bryan Hoch says NJ caught a spike during BP and felt something, but he definitely would have played if it was a regular season game. No point in pushing it March 4th.

1:30pm: Via Ben Shpigel, Nick Johnson was scratched from today’s game against the Phillies with a stiff lower back. Jamie Hoffmann took his place at DH and in the two-hole. Most of the time this wouldn’t be news, but NJ’s injury history and previous back trouble (he spent 52 days on the disabled list with a lower back strain back in 2004) makes it worth a mention. More than likely, this is no big deal, and they’re just playing it safe.

Remember, Jorge Posada’s shoulder was barking this time last spring (when he was coming off surgery), and he was fine in the end.

Avoiding the twin killing in the two hole

by 56 Comments

In discussing the merits of a No. 2 hitter, I hit on the value of setting the table. Because Nick Johnson gets on base at a better clip than the other candidates, he’ll create more opportunities for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez to hit with men on base. But, while getting on base factors prominently into the quality of a No. 2 hitter, other issues can change the situation. For instance, what if the No. 2 hitter, who gets on base at a high clip, also grounds into a lot of double plays? Wouldn’t that sap his value?

About a year ago, while he was working with Team USA, I made a further argument for Derek Jeter the leadoff hitter. Beyond the reasons we’d heard a thousand times — Jeter got on base more than Damon while Damon had more power than Jeter — I thought another factor played prominently. In 2008 Jeter hit into 24 double plays, the highest number of his career. Many times, I’m sure, these double plays came after Damon reached safely. Damon, though, is historically good at avoiding double plays. Flipping the two, then, seemed obvious.

Just a few days after that post, Joe Girardi announced that he would make that very flip. The results, as we saw, reflected the projection. Jeter hit into fewer double plays. Damon hit into more, but that’s going to happen when the guy in front of you gets on base 40 percent of the time. This raises an interesting point. We don’t learn much from raw GIDP numbers, because they’re not placed in any context. What we seek is some kind of rate for GIDP — how many times the player hit into a double play when presented the opportunity. That seems like relevant information for a No.2 hitter.

Thankfully, Baseball Reference does have information about double play opportunities (under More Stats, then Situational Hitting).* So, among Johnson, Curtis Granderson, and Robinson Cano, who has hit into the most double plays per opportunity? We’ll add in Damon for comparison.

*When I originally wrote this article, I had no idea this existed. Thanks to B-R founder Sean Forman for pointing me in the right direction. This table is totally accurate.

Player GDP Opp Pct.
Johnson 72 594 12.1
Granderson 18 410 4.4
Cano 94 670 14.0
Damon 84 1591 5.3

Does Johnson’s GIDP propensity offset his better on-base skills? Sound like a good idea for another follow-up article.