River Avenue Blues

Game 148: It would be nice to see Good A.J.

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With 15 games left in the regular season, each starter should get another three turns in the rotation. For A.J. Burnett, these three could tell a lot. He hasn’t been pitching well lately, and the Yanks will need him in a couple of weeks. He’d make all of us a bit less concerned if he turns in a quality performance tonight.

It won’t be easy goings for the Yanks, as they run into Felix Hernandez for the first time this season. The 23-year-old has tossed 207.1 innings this season, striking out 193 to 63 walks, an excellent ratio. Felix has also done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just 14 homers all season. All this, plus the lowest hits per mine of any qualified pitcher, has made for an excellent season, easily his best so far.

Seattle has scored the fewest runs in the American League this season and will be without their best power hitter, Russ Branyan. That’s good for A.J. He should be able to get though this lineup. Then again, when Bad A.J. shows up, it seems like a lineup full of John McDonalds could lick him.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, Dh
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Jose Molina, C

And on the mound, number thirty-four, A.J. Burnett.

Saying goodbye to DotF

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When Triple-A Scranton lost to Durham last night, the Yankees’ 2009 minor league season officially came to an end. Both High-A Tampa and Short Season Staten Island won their league titles, making it the second consecutive year the Bombers have had multiple affiliates win championships. Minor league titles don’t tell you anything about what kind of prospects a team has, but they are a testament to the qualify of the coaching staffs and development people in place within the organization.

DotF will return when the Arizona Fall League season starts in just about a month (Oct. 13th to be exact), and of course I’ll keep you updated on what happens in the Mexican, Dominican, Venezuelan, and Puerto Rican Winter Leagues as well. The Caribbean Leagues don’t start until much later though, usually November. Remember, Hawaii Winter Baseball is no more, instead replaced by a second league in Arizona (dubbed the Junior League for the time being), but that doesn’t start until next season. Here’s the AzFL roster in case you forgot who’s going.

Thanks for paying attention all season, it’s been a blast.

Open Thread: New radio voices

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Update (7:31pm): T-Kep tweets that Ian Kennedy might be called up soon. That would be cool.

It’s not major news, but it’s news nonetheless. Suzyn Waldman won’t be around calling games during the Seattle series, instead she’ll be off celebrating Rosh Hashannah. Apparently it takes two people to replace her, as WFAN’s Sweeny Murti inherits pre- and post-game duties while Kim Jones takes over during games. Don’t worry, Suzy will be back in time for the Anaheim series.

Elsewhere, longtime Yankee farmhand and RAB’s 2008 Minor League Lifetime Achievement Award winner Matt Carson has been called up by the A’s and is in the lineup tonight. A big congrats goes out to Matt, I wish him nothing but the best.

Anyway, use this as your open thread until gametime later tonight. The Mets are playing the Nats in a battle of teams going nowhere, and if you’re into hockey the Rangers are taking on the Red Wings in preseason action. You can also come chill with me at MLBTR. Other than that, anything goes until the game starts, just be nice.

Quick hits form Heyman on Pettitte, Posada, Joba

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In his recent column, SI’s Jon Heyman has three quick bullet points on the Yanks. Nothing big, but there are a few discussion-worthy topics.

Andy Pettitte begged the Yankees to keep pitching through his shoulder fatigue — though it appears he’s going to make almost all his incentives and more than double his $5.5 million salary, anyway. Yankees people realize they need Pettitte in the playoffs.

I doubt Andy wants to pitch just so he can reach his incentives. He knows as well as anyone what’s at stake right now, and if his shoulder really was an issue he wouldn’t be begging into September games when the team has a playoff spot all but locked up.

Andy has a $5.5 million base salary, plus another $6.5 million in incentives. He’s going to get all of the $2 million roster bonus without a doubt. He’s already earned $1.5 million in performance bonuses, and will add another $750K to that with his next start. The one after that should add another three-quarter million. If he starts three more times, it could be yet another bonus. So Pettitte stands to make $10.5 to $11.25 million this season. Not bad.

While Jorge Posada’s feistiness generally makes him a beloved figure around the Yankees, club personnel were not pleased Posada ignited a brawl with the Blue Jays. As Toronto manager Cito Gaston pointed out, the Yankees were the ones with something to lose. The Yankees didn’t fight Posada’s three-game suspension (perhaps they knew he got a break).

The Yankees shouldn’t have been pleased with that. Jorge doesn’t like to be a target at the plate, and was rightly upset when Carlson threw behind his back. But it never should have escalated to that point. The Blue Jays are a fourth place team. The Yankees are headed for the best record in the AL. There’s no need for a petty fight in that situation. Nothing good can come of it.

The Yankees think they may have detected the flaw in Joba Chamberlain’s delivery that’s caused him to be so mediocre lately. Pitching coach Dave Eiland is said to have noticed something was awry.

This always sounds dubious to me, no matter what pitcher it regards. We heard stories earlier this year about how John Smoltz was tipping pitches with the Sox. Ditto Luke Hochevar. Sure, there might have been a hitch in Joba’s delivery, and getting into the rhythm of pitching every five days might have helped him work it out. To me, it sounds more like a confidence booster than anything. If it works, hats off. An effective Joba gives the Yankees a distinct advantage in the playoffs.

The Justin Verlander factor

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By the end of this weekend, the Yankees will have a far better sense of their potential ALDS opponent. For three games, the Tigers and Twins face off in Minnesota, and while these two opponents still have four games left in Detroit, if the Tigers grab this series, the Twins will face long postseason odds indeed.

If the Yanks draw the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs, it will mark the second time in four seasons that these two teams face of in the Division Series. In 2006, a post-season marred by Joe Torre’s decision to hit A-Rod eighth in the order, the Tigers downed the Yanks three games to one. That season marked Justin Verlander’s first full year in the Bigs, and in his one ALDS start, he was decent. He gave up three runs in 5.1 innings but allowed 11 baserunners. The Yankees couldn’t capitalize on his shaky outing.

Since then, Verlander has matured into one of the AL’s top pitchers, and this year is his big breakout season. He is 16-8 with a 3.34 ERA. He leads the AL with 239 and his 10.2 K/9 IP rate is tops among Junior Circuit pitchers. Opponents are hitting just .240/.295/.373 off of him.

Today, The Times’ Ben Shpigel profiles the hard-throwing right-hander. Verlander, writes Shpigel, throws hard. He throws hard in the first inning and can still hit 99 and 100 on the gun in the 7th and 8th. With his off-speed arsenal, Verlander has emerged as a true artist on the mound, and the Yankees are well aware of his presence. Writes Shpigel:

The Yankees, presuming they finish with the best record in the A.L., can opt for a division series schedule featuring an extra day off, allowing them to use only three fully rested starters. Sabathia would be in line to pitch in Games 1 and 4, but, then again, so would Verlander. In two starts against the Yankees this season — both opposite Sabathia — Verlander has held them to two runs in 14 innings. In his July 18 start at Yankee Stadium, Verlander did not allow any of the Yankees’ seven left-handed hitters to pull a fly ball until the sixth inning.

“He knows that our season revolves around how well he pitches,” reliever Bobby Seay said. “He’s taken that to heart every time out.”

While the Twins have Scott Baker fronting their rotation, Justin Verlander is why I’m rooting for Minnesota this weekend. The dominance of Verlander and the threat of him will make Detroit very tough to beat in a five-game set, and his performances this year against the Yanks have shown, the league’s top offense is pretty powerless against a pitcher of his caliber.

There is one way to counter the Verlander effect: In the past, I’ve advocated for shaking up the rotation. Save CC Sabathia for Game 2 when the match up more heavily favors the Yankees. He could still pitch a potential game 5, and if the Yanks manage to win a Verlander start without CC on the mound, all the better. If they lose, they will have wasted their ace.

But CC ain’t exactly chopped liver. After all, CC Sabathia, our ace, has out-pitched Verlander since the All Star Break. Verlander is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 90 Ks in 12 starts spanning 87.2 innings while Sabathia is 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 83 Ks in 12 starts spanning 85 innings. If the final score is 3.29-2.75, the Yankees win.

The Yankees lost to the Tigers in 2006 when they had to put their season into the hands of Jaret Wright. This year, the Yanks’ rotation, while featuring some question marks, is better than the pitchers backing up Verlander. All the speed in the world on a Justin Verlander fastball can’t change that fact.

RAB Live Chat

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A David Robertson rehab update

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David Robertson is hitting the road with the Yankees this week, and while he isn’t ready to be activated yet, he has begun a throwing program that will determine the rest of his season. Prior to Wednesday’s game, Robertson threw from 60 feet, and he will do it again tonight before the Yanks take on the Mariners. If all goes according to plan and the right-hander’s progress continues apace, Robertson would probably be activated when the Yanks take on the Royals in from Sept. 28-30. With Brian Bruney’s frustratingly annoying ineffectiveness, the Yanks’ pen would be considerably strengthened if Robertson can come back this season and play a role during October.

In news tangentially related to the Yankees, the A’s have shut down Brett Tomko for the rest of the season with nerve damage in his right arm. Tomko was just three days removed from his first complete game shut out since 2005 when the A’s made this announcement. He hadn’t thrown 114 pitches in a game since May of 2006. So much for that whole Mitre/Tomko debate we had on Wednesday.