River Avenue Blues

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Britton, Gray, Profar

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(Harry How/Getty)

I don’t self-promote often, but I am going to do my civic duty and link to my CBS post ranking the top 50 players in baseball five years from now. Who’s No. 1? You probably already know! Anyway, there’s that. Now here are the latest offseason rumblings as the hot stove continues to run cold.

Machado’s agent is “barely engaging” teams

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), neither Manny Machado nor Bryce Harper appear close to signing, and in fact Machado’s agent Dan Lozano is “barely engaging” teams right now. He’s remaining patient and waiting for either an interested team to up their offer, or another team to jump into the mix. These things can change in a hurry, but, right now, it doesn’t sound like Machado is close to picking a team. His market is reportedly down to the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox.

Earlier this week I said it seems Machado is holding up the rest of the offseason. My thinking was that, once he signs, interest in Harper will pick up, and teams that miss out on Machado will begin to look at other free agents. That was probably overly optimistic on my part. It reminds me of last offseason when we were all saying things would pick up once Shohei Ohtani signed and Giancarlo Stanton was traded. It never really happened. When a 26-year-old on a Hall of Fame track doesn’t have teams falling all over themselves to sign him, you know baseball is broken.

Yankees now “focused” on Britton

With David Robertson having signed with the Phillies, the Yankees are now “focused” on re-signing Zach Britton, report Jon Heyman and Brendan Kuty. Other teams are involved and Jayson Stark says Britton and Scott Boras are holding out for a four-year contract. They’ll probably settle for a three-year deal (with an option?), which is still one year too long for my liking, but what I think doesn’t matter.

Britton turned 31 last month and he had a 3.10 ERA (4.22 FIP) in 40.2 total innings after returning from Achilles surgery last year. He was at his best late in the season, as he got further away from the surgery, but he still wasn’t peak Orioles Zach Britton. The Yankees’ infield defense is pretty sketchy as currently constituted and that doesn’t seem to be a good fit for such a ground ball reliant pitcher. Strikeouts are the way to go.

Yankees, Braves, Rangers talked three-way trade with Gray, Profar

According to Jeff Passan, there was “traction” at one point on a three-way trade that would’ve sent Sonny Gray to the Braves and Jurickson Profar to the Yankees. Atlanta would’ve sent a prospect(s) to Texas. We heard the Yankees had interest in Profar and the Braves had interest in Gray earlier this winter, so that makes sense. Alas, the Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays. Texas received four prospects in the deal.

We’ll see what the Yankees get in the inevitable Gray trade, but I have a hard time thinking it’ll be better than Profar. He was my ideal Didi Gregorius replacement. Profar appears poised to finally take off and become one of the game’s top players. Of course, the Braves and Rangers had a say in this as well, and it sounds like the potential three-team trade fell apart because those clubs weren’t satisfied. So it goes. For what it’s worth (nothing), I acquired Profar in a three-team trade involving Gray in my 2018-19 Offseason Plan. Loved him as Gregorius fill-in and super utility guy.

What will we remember about the 2018 Yankees?

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Will this image last a lifetime? (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Over the last two years, ESPN’s Sam Miller has gone through Major League Baseball history and tried to determine the part of each baseball season that will live on years from now. His 2018 post included potential candidates like gambling’s legalization, the opener strategy and Shohei Ohtani, among other options. It’s more than worth the read.

For the Yankees, 2018 was a memorable but not unforgettable season. There are plenty of moments from 2009 or other years that will live on not just in the current crop of Yankees fans’ memories but in the next generation. Instead, this past year will likely sit as either just a year building up to an eventual title for the current core or a disappointing what-if within a championship drought.

Still, inspired by Miller’s post, I sought to determine what from this season will live on for future Yankees fans. Ranging from memorable debuts, playoff failure or an unexpected breakout, these are my candidates:

1. The Home Run Record

The Yankees set a few home run records in 2018 and none more significant than the all-time single-season mark of 267 homers, surpassing the 1997 Mariners’ total of 264.

There was chatter when Giancarlo Stanton was acquired in Dec. 2017 that the Yankees would break this record, but actually pulling off the feat was a sight to behold. The Bombers unleashed a series of breathtaking dingers on baseball with Giancarlo leading the way with 38, though Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius and Miguel Andujar each hit 27.

Records definitely have some staying power, even combined efforts. We remember win records from the 1998 Yankees and 2001 Mariners and four 20-game winners for the 1971 Orioles. This has the potential to be the record for some time as the league home run total fell by 520 from 2017 to 2018 and it could fall further.

However, there’s a simple reason why this record may not last in everyone’s memories; It might get broken… and soon. The 2019 Yankees could have a full year of Judge to go with an improved Stanton and Gary Sanchez, not to mention Manny Machado. The current juiced ball era leads one to believe home run records can fall and this one is no exception, whether by next year’s Yankees, another team in this era or one in a high-flying future in baseball history. If this doesn’t happen, then this record is the easy answer.

2. Miguel Andujar’s Debut

Miguel Andujar came into 2018 as the overshadowed rookie in the Yankees’ plans, starting the year in Triple-A as Brandon Drury took the reins at the hot corner. However, Drury was soon Wally Pipp’d and Andujar seized the opportunity, nearly winning Rookie of the Year despite his poor defense.

In addition to his 27 homers, which rank third all-time for a Yankees rookie, he broke Joe DiMaggio’s franchise record for doubles by a rookie. Even though Andujar walked infrequently, his palpable impact buoyed the Yankees at times.

Why would Andujar’s year be remembered well into the future? Well, 2018 could be the beginning of an accolade-laden career in the Bronx with Andujar just 23 years old right now. Even though he debuted in 2017, this would be the year the next generation knows, just like how Derek Jeter’s 1996 overshadows his 1995.

Of course, the issue here is that Andujar may not be long for New York. The team’s pursuit of Machado casts doubt on his future on River Avenue and his name swirls in trade rumors as you read this. Even though his rookie season was remarkable, Andujar’s spot in Yankees’ lore is murky without more time.

3. Gleyber Torres’ Debut

When I think about what will live on from the 2016 and 2017 Yankees, it boils down to two people: Sanchez and Judge. Sanchez’s breakout August in 2016 was record-setting for a rookie slugger while Judge’s stature and power simply took over the 2017 season. Perhaps Didi Gregorius’ Wild Card Game homer will be played for years to come, but I can guarantee Judge’s 52 homers in his rookie season will be notable, even if he surpasses that total in subsequent seasons. (For the record, it should have been 53 homers).

And that’s why Torres’ debut, while less flashy than Andujar’s, could be what stands out from 2018. As the Yankees have assembled their current core, each new piece has found a way to stand out in turn and Torres was no exception.

The first of his two walk-off hits pad the case for his 2018 to be remembered. Look at the photo at the top of this piece. Torres pointing back to the Yankees’ dugout after his game-winning three-run homer against Cleveland was the gif/screenshot-able moment that sticks out.

Unlike Andujar, he comes without the defensive shortcomings and even had some highlight-reel plays to go with a few miscues. Gleyber has staying power with the Yankees’ core as it’s clear the front office wants to keep him indefinitely.

4. Gary Sanchez and What If…

If Sanchez finds his footing and rebounds to the levels he showed in 2016 and ’17, his 2018 will read like a WTF moment. Looking at his Baseball Reference page will cause those unfamiliar with him to immediately ask, “What happened that year? Why did he hit .185 and forget how to hit?” Not that he touches the following players’ levels, but it’s reminiscent of Babe Ruth’s 1922 and Derek Jeter’s 2003.

However, the lasting legacy of Sanchez’s season might actually have been his last plate appearance. Down two, Sanchez hit a towering fly ball to left field at Yankee Stadium, falling 10 feet shy of a walk-off grand slam to win ALDS Game 4. As you surely know, the Red Sox would eliminate the Yankees just one batter later and go on to win the title.

If Yankees don’t win a championship in the next few seasons, there will be a lot of looking back and wondering how they didn’t break through. Fans will examine just how close they came. The Bombers were on the precipice in Game 6 and 7 of the 2017 ALCS in Houston, but Sanchez’s fly ball to nearly beat the archrival Sox could sear into fans’ memories, particularly if Sanchez’s decline further hampers the Pinstripers’ championship hopes in future seasons.

So. Dang. Close. (Getty)

5. 16-1

Ugh. Like the last one, I hate to mention this, but the Yankees lost by 15 runs to the Red Sox. At home. In the playoffs.

This game had everything: The first playoff cycle, Austin Romine pitching, Dan Cortese. Within a dominant postseason for the Red Sox, the 16-1 beatdown stuck in the Sox’s minds enough that Alex Cora brought it up at the championship parade.

Why would this not last? Brock Holt getting the cycle instead of a potential Red Sox lifer like Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi hurts the case, as does the hectic final innings of Game 4. For some reason, the blowouts often just fade away, particularly if they aren’t the closing game of the series. However, I’m not sure the Red Sox and their fans will willingly let the Yankees faithful forget this savage destruction in the short term.

6. Luke Voit

Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuke!

After coming over at the deadline, Luke Voit tore the cover off the ball for the final two months of the year. He hit 14 home runs in just 39 games and batted .333/.405/.659 before hitting a game-sealing triple in the Wild Card Game. He went from the Cardinals’ third-string first baseman to a fan favorite, getting his name chanted at every home game.

Essentially, Voit was the Shane Spencer for a new generation, albeit more union-friendly and fewer championships. We still remember Spencer two decades later, though he may fade with time. Spencer never hit more than 12 homers in a season after slugging 10 in 27 games in ’98, making his season standout even more. What Voit does remains to be seen.

My Best Guess

If I had to wager what we’ll remember about the 2018 Yankees, I’d say Torres’ rookie season. His stable place on the Yankees’ roster portends a long and storied career and his All-Star 2018 was the start of it all. Andujar and Voit don’t seem destined for Monument Park and could very well be donning new uniforms by Opening Day 2020. Meanwhile, the home run record is bound to be broken.

As for the playoff moments, the Yankees’ championship window remains wide open and 2018’s short run likely concludes as a prelude to something grander. The 16-1 beatdown doesn’t have the staying power of the Red Sox’ Game 4 wins in the ALCS and World Series, or the run as a whole.

I also wouldn’t rule out something not mentioned above. Judge getting showered with cheers during his September return or the Tyler Austin-Joe Kelly brawl or something completely out of left field could surpass all of my suggestions. After all, the history has yet to be written.

Mailbag: Andujar, Gray, Salary Dumps, and More

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Happy new year, folks! It’s the first mailbag of 2019, and I’m pinch-hitting for Mike – and I have nine questions to work with. As always, you can send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Tony asks: Your post about Gray still being on the team, wherein you noted that he’s an ace away from YS, made me wonder. Could they keep him and limit him to road-only starts? I mean…we play 81 games away from YS, so how many hoops would the rotation have to jump through to make sure that Sonny got most (say 25) starts on the road?

In a vacuum, this makes sense. It’s an extreme version of teams benching their lefties against Chris Sale, or not wanting to start fly-ball heavy righties in Yankee Stadium. And, given that it makes sense to get more rest for all of their starting pitchers. I’m not a staunch proponent of six-man rotations, but I think they make sense in certain settings.

All that being said, having a road-only starter would be incredibly difficult to manage. The Yankees open the season on a six-game home stand, and then play nine in a row at home from April 12 through April 21. Gray is essentially worthless in that time, which means you’d be wasting a roster spot; and that’s a precious commodity in these bullpen-heavy times. That undoubtedly evens out over the course of the season, but it’s nevertheless a hurdle to consider. Moreover, a quick review of the schedule shows that he’d be deployed erratically, and starters are creatures of habit – I don’t know what sort of impact pitching on drastically different amounts of rest would have. And all of this ignores the impact on the other starters (including making them all have a disproportionately higher number of starts in Yankee Stadium).

I do think there’s something to be said for trying to set Gray up to pitch mostly on the road, in the event that they do hold onto him. That’s far more doable. And yet the same issues remain.

Mark asks: I know it has been said that Andujar or Sanchez would be just an average hitting first basemen, but wouldn’t they be better than the .220 batting average we expect our existing first bases options to give us? Would there really be anyone else that could give the Yankees that kind of WAR for league minimum?

This is a two-layer problem.

The first question is whether the Yankees can find a cheap first baseman that’s a better option than Luke Voit and Greg Bird. The answer to that is almost certainly yes. Matt Adams ($4 MM) and Justin Bour ($2.5 M) signed for relatively little, and both would be massive upgrades over what the team has grown accustomed to at first. Is that the minimum? No – but it’s not a big-time outlay, either. Matt Davidson, Derek Dietrich, Lucas Duda, Wilmer Flores, and Mark Reynolds are all free agents, and all profile as average or better hitters. And I doubt that any of them will cost more than Adams.

The second question is more complex: if the Yankees move Andujar or Sanchez to first, who are they being replaced with at third or catcher? If it’s Manny Machado, then I’d absolutely be happy with Andujar shifting to first. Beyond him, though, things get hazy. Marwin Gonzalez isn’t a good defensive third baseman, either, and Jed Lowrie hasn’t played there regularly in a few years. I don’t think you move Andujar for either of them. As for catcher, if you’re not signing Yasmani Grandal, giving up a draft pick, and going over the tax, then what’s the point?

Basically, it’s a matter of first base being relatively easy to fill on the cheap, and the Yankees seemingly more than happy to stick with their in-house options.

Roy asks: As I read your article on trading Andujar to the Padres for prospects, it got me thinking about how little the Yankees currently have to offer at the July 31st trade deadline.  Beyond Bumgarner, who is likely to be prized at the deadline.  In other words, who do you predict to be tanking then that is not tanking now, and who do they offer for prospects?

This may not be the best methodology, but here are the players that (1) play for teams that might not contend, (2) will be free agents after 2019, and (3) could end up in high-demand:

  • Jose Abreu, White Sox
  • Nolan Arenado, Rockies
  • Jake Arrieta, Phillies
  • Francisco Cervelli, Pirates
  • Khris Davis, A’s
  • Josh Donaldson, Braves
  • Todd Frazier, Mets
  • Scooter Gennett, Reds
  • Ivan Nova, Pirates
  • Yasiel Puig, Reds
  • Zack Wheeler, Mets
  • Alex Wood, Reds

I’m leaving off a slew of relievers, given the volatility and fungibility of bullpen arms … as well as the fact that it would make the list incredibly cumbersome. Bumgarner is almost certainly the prize arm available, but there are several bats and arms that could make a difference for a team down the stretch.

As for what the Yankees can offer: it’s difficult to say. A great deal can change with prospects in the span of a couple of months. If Estevan Florial rakes at Double-A, he could end up in high-demand; if Jonathan Loaisiga ends up on the disabled list again, he could be persona non grata. That being said, they do lack a clear-cut, top-flight prospect to shop as of now, so the likelihood of them winning a bidding war for Arenado or Bumgarner or whoever doesn’t feel too high at this time. But that can change in a hurry.

Michael asks: Do you think there is any chance we could pry Travis Shaw from the Brewers? His lefty swing would profile well here. Brew Crew do not seem fully committed to him after trading for Moose and Schoop last year, as well as moving him all over the diamond and even sitting him vs. lefties down the stretch. He’d be good a fit here as our 1B. They have reported interest in Gray, and I know they’d need more in return. However, could there be a logical fit?

I don’t think that the Brewers machinations had anything to do with Shaw. Second base was a black hole for them on both offense and defense, and they felt that having Moustakas at third and Shaw at second was the best solution to that problem. I’d hazard that says more about their faith in Shaw to move to a more difficult defensive position than anything else, in fact. And Schoop was added as a replacement for utility player Hernan Perez; he ended up playing about a third of his games at short, after all. Schoop was the one who ended up falling out of favor, riding the pine frequently and starting just one playoff game.

As for Shaw: I think he’s a great fit on the Yankees. He has hit .258/.347/.497 (119 wRC+) with strong walk (11.6%) and strikeout (20.6%) rates as a full-time player over the last two years, and he’s still a few months shy of 29. His walk and strikeout rates have improved every year, too. Shaw might be a platoon player, given his 89 wRC+ against lefties – but he’s not unplayable. And he’s a solid defender at first and third, and didn’t embarrass himself at second.

If Gray and a mid-level prospect or two could get it done, I’d be all for it. Given that he has three years of team control remaining, however, I think he’d cost a fair bit more than that. And my trade proposal sucks too much to put something else together.

Jeremy asks: I feel like we’re all forgetting how miserable it was being saddled with huge contracts on the downside of their careers: Giambi, A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, CC before his big contract expired, currently Ellsbury, and probably a lot of other guys I’m forgetting. I get that the Yankees limiting their spending is annoying, but isn’t there something to be said for financial prudence and finding the right value? Especially in a sport where the playoffs are such a “crapshoot,” do we really want to mortgage the future for win-now signings that will likely look awful in a few years?

Bryce Harper will be 26 for the entirety of the 2019 season, and Machado will turn 27 in July. Compare that to the ages at which the other guys signed:

  • Giambi – 31
  • Rodriguez – 32
  • Jeter – 37*
  • Teixeira – 29
  • Sabathia – 28 (or 31 when he signed the extension)
  • Ellsbury – 30

I put an asterisk on Jeter because I don’t know if you’re talking about his free agency, or when he signed his ten-year extension. If it’s the latter, it’s worth noting that he was awesome for all but the final year of that deal.

Harper and Machado are so much younger than these guys that it doesn’t make much sense to compare them. And that’s why they’re such desirable commodities – they’re way younger than most players are when they hit free agency. A ten-year deal for Harper would pay him from age-26 through age-35 and, for whatever it’s worth, most of the players that you mentioned were still quite good into their mid-30s. I think the odds are in favor of Harper and Machado more than earning their keep for the vast majority of their contracts.

I also don’t think that signing a long-term deal is akin to mortgaging the future. Dealing away a slew of prospects for a player? Sure. That’s mortgaging the future a bit. But paying only money for a young, elite player that should give you dynamite returns for several years sets you up incredibly well now and in the future.

Colin asks: Doesn’t it make sense that the Yanks are holding onto Sonny to see what happens with Machado, if they sign him, they trade Sonny for minor leaguers and unload salary to lighten the luxury tax hit, if they don’t sign Machado they use Sonny to get a more meaningful major league piece (e.g. as part of a Scooter trade)?  Not saying I like it, but wouldn’t it make sense, and then the Sonny deal would go down right after Machado says where he is going?

I’ve suspected this for a few weeks now. And, in a vacuum, it makes sense. With Machado in-play, Gray can be dealt for salary relief and depth or prospects; without Machado, he could be exchanged for a piece that fits this year’s roster. My issue with it is that there’s a big-time opportunity cost that comes with playing the waiting game. Gray for Gennett has been kicked around on Yankees Twitter for some time now, but the Reds already traded for Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, and appear to be going for it in the NL Central – would they really give up their starting second baseman for another pitcher? I don’t know.

Trevor asks: When looking at partnering with SD I wonder how a swap of Wil Myers and Ellsbury would factor in.  I’d guess that Myers has $30 mil or so of negative value.  Ells has no value and its all dead money (though a team like SD may like to stash him to cash in on the insurance policy). Myers could provide a bat that is semi-capable of 1b, 3b, LF, and RF while lowering the AAV from the Ellsbury contract by about $8 mil a year.  I know our trade proposals suck…  I’m asking more about the theory.  While it is ideal to get player value from an asset like Andujar but offsetting some of it by getting Myers at a lower AAV could potentially help bridge the gap.  I hate to even venture a trade idea but off the top of my head I’d be interested in a Ellsbury and Andujar for Myers, Francisco Mejia and Jose Castillo.

I’m going to handle this in two parts.

I’m semi-interested in Myers as a buy-low candidate. His luxury tax hit is only $12 MM per year, which isn’t bad at all, and he has the sort of power that plays everywhere. And, while I don’t think his numbers with the Padres are necessarily an illusion, it’s worth noting that his exit velocity (89.7 MPH), barrel percentage (8.2%), and hard hit percentage (45.3%) over the last two years are comfortably above league-average. There might be something there. Is it enough of that nebulous something to make me confident he’s an upgrade at first? I’m not sure. I would prefer him to Ellsbury, though.

The second part then becomes whether I would deal Andujar for Mejia, Castillo, and what amounts to cash. And, to be honest, I’m not sure that’s actually worth considering, because I don’t see the Padres doing it. Andujar is a very good to great hitter that will probably end up at first base for them, whereas Mejia is a good to very good hitter than can catch (and has an extra year of team control); and Castillo profiles as a legit closer. I don’t see the Padres being the team that takes on salary to facilitate a trade like this.

Would I do it, though? I’d consider it, to be sure. I’m not opposed to having two quality catchers on the roster, and rotating them between backstop and DH to keep both fresh. And I’m a big fan of Mejia, to boot. I just don’t think it’s terribly likely.

Alexis asks: My TPS but what about Dee Gordon as Didi replacement or bench player (he can play SS, 2B and CF) and Mike Leake (as sixth starter/swing man) as insurance for our starts?  Can we swap Ellsbury 42 million contract plus middle level prospects/MLB ready ones (like Wade, German and Acevedo for example) for Leake 31 million and Gordon 26.5 million contracts? Mariners will actually reduce their payroll by 7.6 million per year in 19 and 20.  Who will said no Yankees or Mariners?

This would be a hard no for me – and I assume the Yankees. Gordon is versatile in the same way that any player who plays multiple positions is, in that he has stood at various spots over the years. However, he did not look good in center last year, and he’s never been a quality shortstop. So, in essence, you’re looking at a second-baseman that has an 84 wRC+ over the last three years and, by Statcast’s sprint speed metric, has slowed down in back-to-back-to-back seasons.

And I’m not interested in Leake, either. A righty with an 89 MPH fastball that doesn’t strike anyone out? In Yankee Stadium? No thanks. I’d rather hold onto Gray for that role than take a flier on someone like Leake.

JDK asks: Re: Machado/Harper – Wouldn’t 10/$35 be a better deal for the players and the Yankees than 8/$40?

I don’t think that there’s a right or wrong answer to this.

The time value of money, in a nutshell, tells us that money now is better than money later. Having an extra $5 MM per year for eight years may well be more valuable than having $70 MM (or a net of $30 MM) more between years nine and ten. It also provides an opportunity to make more money at age-34, as opposed to age-36. It’s not a simple economics problem, to be sure, but there’s definitely a great deal of value in having more money today than tomorrow. I don’t think that players see it this way in most sports, though, as years seem to win out more often than not.

As for the team, the seemingly obvious answer is that the lower AAV is preferable, given the luxury tax issues (and general availability of more money today to spend on someone else). However, there are inherent risks that increase with age that they would have to navigate once the player hits his mid-30s. Moreover, the impact of having potentially dead money – as they do with Ellsbury now – increases with every additional year of the contract.

Please accept this non-answer as an answer.

The Yankees already have a reclamation project in the bullpen in Tommy Kahnle

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(Presswire)

The Yankees reportedly hope to add two relievers between now and Opening Day. Two relievers to replace David Robertson and Zach Britton, and hey, it is entirely possible they will re-sign Robertson and/or Britton. Even with Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder in tow, there’s still room for more quality relievers in the bullpen. Always and forever.

Among the in-house bullpen candidates is Tommy Kahnle, who the Yankees acquired prior to the 2017 trade deadline for two reasons. One, to help their 2017 postseason push. That big trade with the White Sox was a watershed moment. The Yankees went into the day of the trade having lost 21 of their last 30 games (for real). The front office said forget about that. We’re getting you guys the help you need and we’re going for it.

And two, to help them in 2018, 2019, and 2020 as well. Kahnle was in the middle of a dynamite season and he came with three full seasons of control beyond 2017. That was huge. Kahnle was a short and long-term addition. Joe Girardi never really found a set regular season role for Kahnle following the trade but he was a monster in the postseason …

… and there was reason to believe Kahnle would again be a key contributor in 2018. It didn’t happen. He struggled early, got hurt, then was sent to Triple-A. He threw 23.1 innings with a 6.56 ERA (4.19 FIP), and while his strikeout rate (28.0%) was good, his walk rate was not (14.0%). Kahnle also had a 4.01 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 34.6% strikeouts and 10.3% walks in 24.2 innings in Triple-A. He was bad. Real bad.

Even if the Yankees add two relievers before the start of the regular season, there are still open bullpen spots to be had, and it stands to reason Kahnle will have a chance to win one of them in Spring Training. He is out of minor league options, so he can’t go back to Triple-A, but I don’t think that’ll guarantee him a roster spot. The Yankees will take the best arms regardless of roster status. Three things about Kahnle keep crossing my mind.

1. He’ll be healthy next season. At least in theory. Kahnle spent seven weeks on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation last year he never looked quite right after that. Or before that, really. His velocity was down coming out of Spring Training …

… and I think at least part of his control issues stemmed from Kahnle muscling up and throwing max effort to generate velocity. His average fastball checked in at 98.11 mph in 2017. In 2018, he topped out at 97.96 mph. Kahnle’s shoulder was compromised and it showed in his velocity, and maybe in his control as well.

“I was hurt. My shoulder all year was not right,” said Kahnle to Brendan Kuty in November. “I tried to pitch through it, which made it worse. By the time I got rest, I wasn’t really that right. Before that, struggling didn’t help mentally as well. I was just all over the place last year … Right now, it feels great. I’m just trying to get my strength up again and hopefully the velocity will spike back up when I come into spring.”

With any luck, an offseason of rest will get Kahnle’s shoulder right — “Not being on the playoff roster kind of gave me a head start on that. So I got the extra two weeks,” he said — and allow him to again generate that upper-90s velocity we saw in 2017. Kahnle is only 29 years old. He’s not at that point where you’d normally expect age-related decline. A proper offseason will hopefully get him back to where he needs to be.

2. His spin rates are okay. For what it’s worth, Kahnle was still able to spin his fastball and changeup last season. The velocity wasn’t there, but the spin was, and that’s not nothing. Even in 2017, he had an average fastball spin rate and that was true again last season. His changeup spin rate was actually one of the lowest in baseball at 1,391 rpm last year and that’s a good thing. You want low spin on a changeup. It creates that tumble down and out of the zone.

Why is this important? Because we’re looking for signs of 2017 Tommy Kahnle. Had his fastball lost spin while his changeup gained spin, thus blending the two pitches more closely together, it would’ve been a significant red flag. Velocity and spin rate declines are very scary. Losing one or the other is still scary, but not as scary as losing both, and theoretically an indication things could be fixed going forward. A little more arm strength could have Kahnle right back to where he was a year ago.

3. The Yankees must think he’s salvageable. Otherwise they would’ve non-tendered him last month. A non-tender would’ve been a clean break. Kahnle’s projected $1.5M salary is nothing, so perhaps that saved his roster spot, but the Yankees did non-tender pre-arbitration Alfredo Aceves back in the day. They were so unconvinced Aceves’ back would hold up that they cut him loose. The Yankees could’ve done the same with Kahnle and didn’t.

Remember, the Yankees have a bit of a 40-man roster crunch this offseason, and every dollar matters in this luxury tax era. Cutting Kahnle would’ve cleared a roster spot and saved some cash. Instead, the Yankees at least indicated a willingness to carry him into Spring Training — they could still designate Kahnle for assignment at some point this offseason, of course — which is telling. They think there’s something here to reclaim.

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Each offseason teams (and fans, at that) scour the league for reclamation projects and bounceback candidates. Every team wants to acquire someone when their stock is down and help them get back to their peak. The Yankees already have a reclamation project on their roster in Kahnle. No need to make a trade or place a waiver claim or sign a free agent contract. He’s a classic reclamation project, and he’s already a Yankee.

My guess is the Yankees intend to give Kahnle a long look in Spring Training — Spring Training is full of lies, but we should know fairly quickly whether Kahnle’s velocity is back once Grapefruit League play begins — to see whether he can get back to his 2017 form, because 2017 Kahnle was really good. The Yankees are nothing if not patient. They stuck with Chasen Shreve longer than they perhaps should’ve, and my hunch is Kahnle will get a long leash as well. The talent to dominate is there and it’s worth seeing if that guy returns in 2019.

“I want to be able to come in and prove that I’m still that guy that they saw two seasons ago,” Kahnle said to Kuty. “That’s what I’m going to be working toward, getting back to what I was the year before.”

Reports: David Robertson agrees to two-year deal with Phillies

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(Getty)

Once again, David Robertson is leaving the Yankees as a free agent. According to multiple reports, Robertson has agreed to a two-year contract with the Phillies. The deal guarantees him $23M and includes a third year club option. I gave Robertson two years and $25M as part of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan, so hooray for being in the ballpark.

The Yankees were not connected much to Robertson this offseason — they’ve been linked more to Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino — though he’d made it know he wanted to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Two years and $23M is an extremely reasonable price for a durable end-game reliever who misses a ton of bats and will pitch in any role. Shrug. We’ll always have this:

It’s been reported the Yankees want to add two relievers this winter, and while adding two top relievers is always possible, my sense is they’re looking at one top reliever and one mid-range guy. Carrying three eight-figure relievers in one bullpen doesn’t seem all that likely, not when L.T.R.E.A.M. I thought Robertson was the top free agent reliever on the market. Pretty bummed to see him go.

An optimistic look at Troy Tulowitzki heading into 2019

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(Patrick Smith/Getty)

With less than six weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report, there is a chance the Yankees already have their Opening Day shortstop. If it’s not Gleyber Torres or Tyler Wade (or Hanser Alberto), it’ll likely be Troy Tulowitzki. The Yankees signed Tulowitzki to a low risk league minimum contract earlier this week. The Blue Jays owe him $20M in 2019. (Plus another $18M in 2020.)

Realistically, expectations for Tulowitzki should be low. He hasn’t played in 18 months and, when he did play last, he wasn’t very good. Tulowitzki hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) in 260 plate appearances in 2017 and .254/.318/.443 (104 wRC+) in 544 plate appearances in 2016. Since the 2015 All-Star break, he’s a .248/.313/.413 (95 wRC+) hitter in over 1,000 plate appearances. Even for a shortstop, that’s crummy.

The Yankees saw something they liked in Tulowitzki though. They attended his workout last month and came away impressed enough to give him a 40-man roster spot and some promise of playing time. For what it’s worth, both Joel Sherman and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) report the Yankees plan to play Tulowitzki at shortstop even if they sign Manny Machado. Huh. I hope we get to find out if that’s true.

We know what the worst case scenario looks like, and it’s not Tulowitzki getting hurt in Spring Training and being unable to take the field. It’s Tulowitzki staying healthy and playing terribly. Remember the 2013 shortstop revolving door? Like that, except it’s one player. What about the best case scenario though? What if the Magic of the Pinstripes™ takes hold and Tulowitzki has a 2012 Eric Chavez season?

That would be very cool. I can’t say I expect it, but that would be very cool. You have to squint your eyes to be optimistic about Tulowitzki going into 2019. That’s always the case with a reclamation project. If you’re looking for reasons to feel good about what he might bring to the table, here are four.

1. He’s healthy! In theory, of course. Tulowitzki had surgery on both heels last April and he is fully recovered. “I was skeptical going in, given how long it’s been since he’d played, but he didn’t seem like a guy who missed all of last year. He was sharp at shortstop. His arm was strong and his bat had some life to it,” said a scout to Dan Martin of Tulowitzki’s recent workout.

The surgeries removed bone spurs that had been bothering Tulowitzki for quite a while — “I would say years,” he told John Lott (subs. req’d) — and, when your feet hurt, it’s hard to do anything properly, especially play baseball at the Major League level. Imagine playing your home games on turf with achy heels? Ouch. Without a solid base underneath you, you can’t really do anything. Hit, throw, run, etc.

If nothing else, Tulowitzki’s heel issues have been addressed. That daily discomfort is no more. Tulowitzki has had plenty of other injury problems — he tore a quad in 2008, broke his wrist in 2010, strained his groin in 2012, broke some ribs in 2013, and had hip surgery in 2014 — but the one thing that has been most bothering him in recent years has been corrected. Tulowitzki is in a good place physically and that is a prerequisite for any optimism.

2. Tulowitzki wears out right field. Like most hitters, Tulowitzki’s power is generally to the pull side. Most of his home runs have been hit to left field as a right-handed batter. Tulowitzki largely hits the ball to the opposite field though. That was true earlier in his career and it’s been true in recent seasons. Here’s his 2015-17 spray heat map (he didn’t play in 2018, remember):

A right-handed hitter who hits the ball the other way tends to be rewarded in Yankee Stadium. Since the current Yankee Stadium opened, we’ve seen several right-handed hitters tweak their approach and aim for the short porch. No one did it better than Alex Rodriguez. Tulowitzki does not have A-Rod power (few do), but he’s talented and has high-end innate hitting ability. Right field is his natural stroke and the short porch beckons.

3. Tulowitzki has never struck out much. The Yankees struck out less than you may think last season. Their team 22.7% strikeout rate was “only” 12th highest among the 30 MLB clubs and more or less equal to the 22.3% league average. That said, the Yankees do have some individual hitters who strike out a lot, specifically Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. They make up for it with their power, but there are strikeout spots in the lineup.

Tulowitzki has never struck out excessively. The highest strikeout rate in his career is a 21.3% strikeout rate in 2015, when he changed leagues at midseason. He struck out in 15.4% of his plate appearances in 2017, the last time he played, and his career strikeout rate is 16.6%. Also, his out-of-zone swing rate has been comfortably better than average throughout his career. Plate discipline tends to age well and Tulowitzki’s always had it.

4. He really wants to be a Yankee. How much does this help on the field? I can’t imagine much, but hey, it doesn’t hurt. Tulowitzki idolized Derek Jeter growing up — I wonder what number he’ll wear in pinstripes since his traditional No. 2 is unavailable? — and it’s long been an open secret that he wanted to one day play for the Yankees.

Tulowitzki is so enamored with the Yankees that he rather memorably showed up to Yankee Stadium as a fan in July 2014. Remember that? Tulowitzki was still with the Rockies at the time but he was on the disabled list and on the East Coast to see a specialist about his hip. He carved out time to catch a ballgame. (Bonus points for the “there’s always money in the banana stand” t-shirt.)

One thing I’ve learned about baseball players over the years is that they try to stay away from baseball when they’re not playing or otherwise at the ballpark. They all put their work in, absolutely, but it is a job, and they try to disconnect from the game whenever possible. Going to a game on an off-day? That almost never happens. Maybe a basketball game or a football game or a hockey game, but another baseball game? No way.

And yet, there was Tulowitzki baking in the sun at Yankee Stadium on a July afternoon. He was in New York and could’ve been doing literally a million other things. Instead, he was at Yankee Stadium. Why? Because he’s always wanted to be a Yankee and he didn’t get to visit the ballpark often as a National League player. Here’s more from Rosenthal:

Tulowitzki could have just signed with a team in need of a shortstop for a full season, or a team that wanted him to play second or third for the first time in his career. All of those possibilities were in play, sources said. A variety of clubs loved the low-risk, high-reward idea of paying Tulowitzki the minimum $555,000 salary, with his previous team, the Blue Jays, picking up the rest.

But great players — and once-great players — always believe in themselves. Tulowitzki appeared in only 66 games over the past two seasons, but he wanted to be on the biggest stage, wanted to satisfy his longstanding desire to play for the Yankees, wanted to prove that he again could be proficient at short now that he has recovered from surgeries on both heels.

I’m not foolish enough to believe that Tulowitzki can will himself into being a great two-way player again just because he’s achieving a goal by playing for the Yankees. Talent tends to win out over nostalgia. I don’t think it hurts though. Tulowitzki is already motivated to prove he isn’t done as a player. Now he’ll get to do it with the team he’s admired. That little extra motivation can only help.

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For what it’s worth, Steamer projects Tulowitzki as a true talent .252/.312/.426 (99 wRC+) hitter in 2019 and that is way better than I expected. I’d sign up for that right now. Give me that and league average defense at shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns and I’ll be a happy camper. That league minimum contract will have been more than worth it. Projections are to be taken with a grain of salt, however.

You have to dream a bit to expect good things from Tulowitzki this coming season. Believe me, I know. As Jay Jaffe wrote in August, shortstops who miss an entire season in their 30s haven’t produced a whole lot once they return. Tulowitzki at his peak was a much better player than Mike Benjamin and Kevin Elster though, and now he’s had his heel problem corrected. That’s kinda huge.

Remember when A-Rod returned from his suspension? He hit .250/.356/.486 (129 wRC+) with 33 home runs that season, which was far better than anyone could’ve reasonably expected. My theory was all the time off in 2014 did his body good. He was able to avoid the wear-and-tear of baseball and let all those nagging injuries heal up. The suspension gave him time to recover and it led to a better than expected 2015 season.

Tulowitzki could very well be in the same place right now. He hasn’t played since July 2017 and that’s given his body time to recover. It’s also a long time to go without facing Major League pitching, but hey, at least his body is probably feeling good. Tulowitzki reported to camp already hurting last year. That won’t be the case his year. He’s healthy and he has a fresh start. The chances of him being an impact player at this point are small, but the chance does still exist.