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5/4 to 5/6 Series Preview: Cleveland Indians

May 4, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Yankees are entering the final series of their eighteen games in eighteen days stretch, and it’s safe to say that they’ve surpassed most reasonable expectations – even with three games to go. They’re 13-2 thus far, and have outscored their opponents 88 to 36, which is nothing short of remarkable. The Indians may not be quite as good as expected thus far, but they’re still a dangerous team, and another intriguing test for the Yankees.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees and Indians faced off in the 2017 ALDS, and the good guys advanced despite dropping the first two games of the series. It was equal parts wonderful and nail-biting, and it was a moderate upset, to boot. Some notes from the series:

The Yankees offense was buoyed by strong performances from Didi Gregorius (.235/.435/.588), Greg Bird (.222/.364/.556), and Aaron Hicks (.316/.350/.526). Those three combined for five of the team’s seven home runs, and ten of their nineteen runs batted in. The team, as a whole, slashed .201/.289/.356.
Aroldis Chapman had a brilliant series, pitching to the following line in three appearances: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K.
Masahiro Tanaka came up huge in game three, tossing 7 scoreless and striking out 7. You may also remember that game for this home run:

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting tidbits from the series.

Injury Report

The Indians have a fair bit of talent on the disabled list right now. Relievers Cody Anderson (recovering from March 2017 Tommy John Surgery) and Nick Goody (elbow inflammation) will not return for this series, and Andrew Miller (hamstring strain) is out as well. There’s a chance Miller could return Sunday, the first day he is eligible to be activated off the disabled list. Starting pitcher Ryan Merritt (knee sprain) has yet to pitch this year, but he’s starting to rehab in the minors so he could be back in a couple of weeks. Infielder Gio Urshela (hamstring strain) and outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall (calf strain) are out, as well, though both are close to returning.

Their Story So Far

Cleveland is 17-14 with a +12 differential, and are leading the AL Central by 3.5 games. They’re not quite the juggernaut that many (most?) expected heading into the season – but it’s May 4, and they’ve dealt with a fair amount of injuries. Their offense (10th in runs, 16th in wRC+) and pitching (13th in runs, 9th in ERA+) have both been middle of the pack thus far, but that can change in a hurry.

Francisco Lindor struggled out of the gate, and needed a late flurry to finish April with a 100 wRC+. He’s heating up now, though, and has hit .435 with 3 home runs in four games in May.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Terry Francona has been pretty steady with his lineup deployment, with most of the tinkering revolving around giving players the day off. He plays around with platoons, as well, but he’s not strict about it. As such, we’ll probably see something along these lines:

Francisco Lindor, SS – .278/.347/.496, 7 HR, 5 SB
Jason Kipnis, 2B – .202/.283/.298, 1 HR, 0 SB
Jose Ramirez, 3B – .277/.372/.538, 8 HR, 3 SB
Michael Brantley, LF – .348/.368/.562, 3 HR, 1 SB
Edwin Encarnacion, DH – .209/.283/.452, 9 HR, 0 SB
Yonder Alonso, 1B – .213/.277/.454, 8 HR, 0 SB
Yan Gomes, C – .250/.329/.461, 4 HR, 0 SB
Tyler Naquin, RF – .311/.354/.393, 1 HR, 0 SB
Bradley Zimmer, CF – .227/.284/.307, 1 HR, 4 SB

Of course, Francona could choose to shake things up against CC Sabathia, swapping Encarnacion and Brantley and squeezing Rajai Davis (39 wRC+) and Brandon Guyer (82 wRC+) into the lineup.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Josh Tomlin

I’m running the risk of a reverse-jinx here, but I feel the need to point out that Tomlin (1) has an 8.57 ERA in 21 IP in Yankee Stadium, (2) has allowed 10 home runs in 18.2 IP this year, and (3) rarely throws a pitch above 89 MPH. He did shut the Yankees down in the ALDS, though, toss three perfect innings across two appearances … so, there’s that.

Tomlin is a junkballer with five distinct offerings – a mid-to-high 80s four-seamer, a mid-t0-high 80s sinker, a mid-80s cutter, a low-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curve. He has good command and control of all five when he’s on, but none of them are true swing and miss pitches.

Last outing (vs. SEA on 4/29) – 6.0 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 0 BB, 3 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Trevor Bauer

Bauer is best-known for either his unique workout habits or his well-earned blowhard label, but he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. And, through six starts in his age-27 season, it kind of looks like he’s beginning to put things together. Bauer has a 2.45 ERA (185 ERA+) and 3.33 FIP through 40.1 IP, and he’s racking up whiffs (27.2% strikeouts). That’s not really the story of his season, for better or worse, because of his mini-tirade about the Astros pitching staff the other day.

Labeling Bauer is a bit difficult, because he throws six distinct pitches. His mid-90s fastball, low-to-mid 80s slider, and high-70s curve represent 85% of his offerings, but he uses a sinker, change-up, and cutter, as well. And the game-to-game utilization of those three fluctuates strongly, based upon how he feels on the day.

Last outing (vs. TEX on 4/30) – 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 11 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Mike Clevinger

Clevinger broke out last season, pitching to a 3.11 ERA (150 ERA+) in 121.2 IP, and earned a spot in the Indians rotation in 2018 as a result. There were questions about his ability to throw strikes, though, as he walked 12% of batters faced last year – and that was a trend in the minors, as well. Of course, when you prevent runs and strike out 27.3% of batters, it’s forgivable. That has changed completely this year, though, as Clevinger’s strikeout (19.0%) and walk (6.5%) rates have dipped dramatically; that’s a product of approach, as he’s throwing far more pitches in the zone.

Clevinger is a four-pitch guy, with a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, low-80s slider, and mid-70s curve. The slider and curve are both swing and miss offerings when they’re on.

Last outing (vs. TEX on 5/1) – 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

I was tempted to just right “it’s not good,” and move on – but I’ll add a bit of flavor. The Indians bullpen currently sports a 5.00 ERA and 4.54 FIP, both of which are in the bottom five of all of baseball. And they’ve only thrown 90 IP, the second-fewest of any team in baseball, which makes the fact that they’ve already taken seven losses kind of staggering.

The injuries to Miller (0.00 ERA in 10.0 IP before he went down) and Anderson (hasn’t pitched this year) don’t help, as they only have one regular reliever with an ERA below 4.40 – and that’s closer Cody Allen. The injured Nick Goody, Tyler Olson, and Zach McAllister all have at least 10 IP and an ERA above 5.00. And the fact that the bullpen had to pick-up 7.1 innings in yesterday’s double-header against the Blue Jays means that they’ll be a bit limited for this series.

Yankees Connection

It seems as though the Indians have a thing for Yankees relievers. In addition to the currently DL’d Nick Goody and Andrew Miller, Cleveland has Zach McAllister (Yankees 3rd rounder in 2006, traded for Austin Kearns in 2010) and Tyler Olson (organizational depth in 2016) in the bullpen.

Who (Or What) To Watch

As was the case with the Astros, this is a match-up of two of the best teams in baseball (even if the Indians have been up and down so far). That makes it a series worth watching for fans of all allegiances, and a special treat for fans of these teams.

Lindor’s defense is pretty wonderful, too, as is Zimmer’s glove in center.

Scouting the Trade Market: Cleveland Indians Pitchers

February 6, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

We are mere days from the beginning of semi-meaningful baseball activities, as Yankees pitchers and catchers are set to report on February 13. Despite this proximity to actual baseball, the off-season as a whole still seems rather unsettled. This isn’t news to anyone, considering that the story of the Winter as a whole is essentially the lack of stories, but that is nevertheless where we are right now. What we do know is that the Yankees have been looking to add another starting pitcher from day one-ish, and there is nothing to suggest that they’ve been deterred from that plan.

And the Indians, who have four starting pitchers vying for two spots (and a penchant for being cash-strapped), may have what the Yankees are looking for.

Mike Clevinger

Clevinger, who turned 27 in December, has been something of an up-and-down guy for the Indians over the last two years, shuttling between Triple-A and the majors, and bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation. He spent the majority of 2017 in the majors though, pitching to the following line in 27 games (21 starts): 121.2 IP, 91 H, 60 BB, 137 K, 3.11 ERA (147 ERA+), 3.85 FIP, 39.5 GB%.

What stands out the most about Clevinger’s season are his walks (4.4 per 9), strikeouts (10.1 per 9), and the low groundball rate. The strikeouts are great; the walks and lack of grounders … not so much. This right in-line with his Triple-A performance, as well, where he has posted 9.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 39.7% grounders in parts of two seasons. That isn’t to suggest that the possibility of improvement isn’t there – but we have a fair amount of evidence saying that this is who he is.

Clevinger is a four-pitch guy, working with a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a mid-70s curve. The slider is regarded as his best pitch, and that held true in 2017 as he posted a 22.9% whiff rate on the offering, and hitters hit just .099 (not a typo) against it. Clevinger’s fastball velocity did dip by nearly 2 MPH from 2016 to 2017, but he attributed that to mechanical issues, and not a lingering injury.

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2022.

Is there a catch? Clevinger seems to be the inside horse for the fourth or fifth spot in the Indians rotation, so the likelihood of him being dealt is probably low.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Yes and no. Yes, in that he’s a young, cost-controlled starter that can strike out batters in droves. And no, in that he walks a bunch of batters and has a propensity for flyballs.

Ryan Merritt

If you know anything about Merritt, it’s probably that he came out of nowhere to start Game 5 of the 2016 ALCS for the Indians – and he did pretty well for a rookie pitcher with all of 11 innings pitched at the highest level. He held the Blue Jays to just two hits in 4.1 IP, striking out three and walking none, and became something of a minor cult hero in doing so. Merritt was rewarded by being left off of the World Series roster, and spending the first two and a half months of 2017 in the minors.

Merritt ended up spending the majority of 2017 in Triple-A, making only four spot starts and one relief appearances in the majors. He posted a 1.74 ERA (266 ERA+) and 3.06 FIP in 20.2 big league innings, to go along with a microscopic 1.7 BB/9 and a strong 53.8% ground ball rate. Those are really good numbers, sample size be damned – so why did Merritt fail to garner a real opportunity with the Indians? He struck out just 7 batters in those 20.2 innings, after striking out just 6.0 per 9 in parts of three seasons at Triple-A.

As one could easily surmise from those numbers, Merritt is a prototypical crafty/finesse southpaw. He throws four pitches: a mid-to-upper 80s four-seamer, a mid-80s cutter, a low-80s change-up, and a low-70s curveball. And he throws all four pitches in any count, essentially challenging hitters to try to square up soft stuff that moves all over the place. None of his pitches profile as anything more than average, but he does have excellent command and control, and he has kept the ball on the ground throughout his professional career. He’ll be 26 in a couple of weeks.

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2023.

Is there a catch? Not really.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Merritt makes sense in the “depth arm under control forever” sort of way, but a pitchers that can’t strike anyone out is a scary proposition in Yankee Stadium, regardless of the rest of his profile.

Danny Salazar

The Indians are open to dealing Salazar, as per Ken Rosenthal, and that is not terribly surprising. Salazar will earn $5 MM this year, which isn’t so cheap for a team that pinches pennies, and he has dealt with elbow, shoulder, and forearm problems in two of the last three seasons. He missed about seven weeks in the middle of 2017 with shoulder soreness, and another couple of weeks with elbow soreness in late August and early September. The Indians were cautious when he came back, shuttling him to the bullpen for two weeks and limiting him to 54 and 64 pitches, respectively, in his last two starts.

There are some red flags here, is what I’m saying.

That being said, the 28-year-old Salazar has performed well when he is on the field. He posted a 4.28 ERA (107 ERA+) and 3.48 FIP around his injuries last year (which limited him to 103 IP), with 12.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. And it’s worth noting that he improved dramatically after returning from his shoulder injury, posting a 3.00 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 12.8 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 over the last two-plus months of the season. His groundball rate improved from a scary 37.1% to a more palatable 41.9% in that stretch, too.

Salazar’s stuff does not appear to have been affected by the injuries, either. Take a look:

His yearly velocity since 2014 (his extended trial in the majors) has been 95.73, 95.94, 95.84, and 95.64 – and that’s definitely a good sign. Overall, Salazar focuses on three pitches in his mid-90s four-seamer, mid-90s sinker, and mid-80s change-up. He also throws a mid-80s slider and a low-80s curve, but rarely more than a few per game.

Contract Status: Arbitration eligible; under team control through 2020.

Is there a catch? Aside from the chances of his arm falling apart?

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Absolutely. Salazar has premium stuff and a track record of success in the majors, and he’s under team control for two more seasons beyond this one. The injuries are scary, but the Yankees have the pitching depth to keep his workload down … and maybe, just maybe, those injuries will keep his price tag down.

Josh Tomlin

There are two things that never fail to surprise me when I read about Josh Tomlin – his age (he’ll be 33 for the entirety of the regular season), and the fact that he’s right-handed. There’s just something about Tomlin’s finesse style that forces me to remember him as a southpaw, and I haven’t been able to shake it … even as he enters his ninth season in the majors.

Tomlin was the Indians fifth starter for the majority of 2017, and he was mostly serviceable in that role. He posted a 4.98 ERA (92 ERA+) and 4.12 FIP in 141 IP, good for between 1 and 2.2 WAR, depending upon your metric of choice. He struck out a modest 7.0 per 9, walked just 0.9 per 9 (a 2.4% walk rate), and allowed lots of home runs owing largely to a 39.6% groundball rate. And all of that is right in-line with Tomlin’s career to date, with the only real blips stemming from Tommy John surgery in August of 2012.

Tomlin is basically a three-pitch guy, working with a four-seamer in the high-80s, a low-to-mid 80s change-up, and a mid-80s cutter. He’ll also throw a mid-70s curveball every so often, but that’s mostly a show-me pitch. Tomlin’s velocity has steadily dropped over the last few years, and he’s lost a bit over 2 MPH on his four-seamer since 2014.

Contract Status: Signed through 2018.

Is there a catch? He’s a rental.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Nope. Tomlin might be a nice depth piece to stash at Triple-A, and he’s only owed $3 MM for this season – but there are plenty of free agents out there that could do the same thing.

Merritt and Tomlin are only worth mentioning in that I could see the Indians moving one or both, but neither moves the needle otherwise. Chance Adams was invited to Spring Training, David Hale was recently signed to a minor league deal, and Luis Cessa is on the 40-man roster, and I have to imagine that at least one of those three could give the Yankees the same sort of production as Merritt and/or Tomlin.

That leaves us with Clevinger and Salazar. Clevinger would almost certainly cost more, as the younger, healthier pitcher with way more team control remaining. And Salazar, even with his injuries, has been linked to other teams this off-season, so we know there’s interest out there. The Indians are very much a playoff contender, so any deal would have to involve MLB pieces and/or MLB-ready pieces, and their biggest need is center – and, given their payroll constraints, that probably means that Aaron Hicks or Clint Frazier would be the most desirable trade chip the Yankees have.

An interesting consideration may be the Yankees taking on Jason Kipnis and his contract. The Indians might not have a place for him on their ideal roster, and he fits a need for the Yankees. My trade proposal sucks, so I’ll leave it at that – but it isn’t difficult to see a potential match here.

Yankees lose Mike Ford, five others in 2017 Rule 5 Draft

December 14, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Winter Meetings came to a close this morning with the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, baseball’s mechanism for helping players stuck in the minors get a chance at the big leagues. As expected, the Yankees lost several players in the Rule 5 Draft. That’s usually what happens when you have a deep farm system. There aren’t enough 40-man roster spots for everyone.

Here are the full Rule 5 Draft results. Here are the players the Yankees lost in the Major League phase:

Braves: RHP Anyelo Gomez
Mariners: 1B Mike Ford
Orioles: LHP Nestor Cortes and RHP Jose Mesa Jr.

I’m surprised Ford was picked, despite his strong minor league numbers. The 25-year-old hit .270/.404/.471 (144 wRC+) with 20 homers and way more walks (94) than strikeouts (72) this season, mostly at Double-A. Ford is only the fourth full-time first baseman picked in the Rule 5 Draft over the last two decades. I guess the Mariners will see whether he and Ryon Healy can be a productive first base platoon going forward.

The three pitchers getting selected was not a surprise. Gomez is the most notable and best prospect of the bunch. The soon-to-be 25-year-old has an upper-90s fastball and a very good changeup, and this past season he broke out with a 1.92 ERA (2.19 FIP) and 31.0% strikeouts in 71 innings at four levels. Cortes has always posted great minor league numbers, though he’s a finesse southpaw who rarely cracks 90 mph with his heater. Joe Table II has okay stuff and started to put it together this year. RHP J.P. Feyereisen and RHP Cale Coshow were among those Rule 5 Draft eligible but not selected.

As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire 2018 season on their new team’s active 25-man roster, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their old team. Most Rule 5 Draft players are offered back, usually before the end of Spring Training. I think Gomez has by far the best chance of sticking among the four players the Yankees lost today. The O’s do have a history of riding it out with Rule 5 Draft players no matter how poorly they perform, however, so perhaps Cortes and/or Mesa will stick.

In the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, the Yankees lost depth C Sharif Othman (Marlins) and converted infielder RHP Yancarlos Baez (Twins). The Yankees selected OF Junior Soto from the Indians as well. The 20-year-old hit .172/.208/.408 (67 wRC+) in 52 Low-A games last season. Soto was a big deal as an international free agent years ago — he signed for $600,000 in 2013 — but things haven’t worked out. The Yankees are taking a flier because why not?

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft works differently than the Major League phase. Players lost in the minor league phase do not have to be offered back and there are no roster rules. They’re just gone. So, after all that, the Yankees lost six players (Ford, Gomez, Cortes, Mesa, Baez, Othman) and added one (Soto). The four Major League phase guys could all end up coming back at some point. Pretty much business as usual at the Rule 5 Draft.

Yankeemetrics: Kings of the Comeback (Wild Card & ALDS)

October 12, 2017 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

Wild, wild win
From a nightmare start to a very happy ending, the Yankees used their relentless power bats to overcome a debacle on the mound in a crazy Wild Card Game victory. With the win, the Yankees snapped a five-game postseason losing streak, which was tied for the second-longest in franchise history.

Luis Severino produced one of the worst playoff starts ever, becoming the third starter in franchise history to give up three or more runs while getting pulled before recording two outs in a postseason game. The others were Art Ditmar in the 1960 World Series and Bob Turley in the 1958 World Series.

Down 3-0 before even swinging a bat and your ace is in the showers? No big deal for this Yankees team: they had the second-most wins when their opponent scored first during the regular season (36). Yet still, this victory was nearly unprecedented in major-league history. Only once before had a team won a postseason game in which their starter lasted 1/3 of an inning and allowed at least three earned runs – the Pirates in Game 7 of the 1925 World Series against the Washington Senators.

The game quickly became a battle of the bullpens and the relief crew responded with a historic performance. Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman allowed just one run while striking out 13, the most strikeouts ever by a bullpen in a winner-take-all playoff contest.

Robertson’s epic outing deserves a couple #FunFacts. He’s the first Yankee reliever to throw at least 3 1/3 scoreless innings and strike out five guys in the playoffs since Mariano Rivera in Game 2 of the 1995 ALDS, and just the third reliever in major-league postseason history do that in a winner-take-all game. The other two? Pedro Martinez (1999 ALDS) and Walter Johnson (1924 World Series).

Aaron Judge put an exclamation point on the comeback with a two-run laser shot into the leftfield seats that gave the Yankees a 7-4 cushion in the fourth. Adding to his ever-growing legendary rookie campaign, he became the youngest player in franchise history to go deep in his first career postseason game. Judge also became the second-youngest Yankee to homer in a sudden-death playoff win; the other dude was a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle in Game 7 of the 1952 World Series. #NotClutch

Overmatched in Cleveland
The Yankees offense was a complete no-show in Game 1 of the Division Series as they were dominated from start to finish by the AL’s best team. Not only were they blanked, 4-0, but they had only three hits, the seventh postseason game all-time that the Yankees were shut out on three hits or fewer.

Adding in the 14 strikeouts, and the Yankees entered the MLB record books – in the worst possible way. This was the fifth time in major-league playoff history that a team scored zero runs, had no more than three hits and struck out at least 14 times. The Yankees are the owners of two of the five games: Thursday night and 2010 ALCS Game 3 vs Rangers. Welp.

Trevor Bauer used his nasty fastball-curve combo to throw one of the most dominant playoff pitching performances ever against this franchise. Bauer, Pedro Martinez (1999 ALCS Game 3) and Cliff Lee (2010 ALCS Game 3) are the only starters to allow no runs and two hits or fewer while striking out at least eight Yankees in a postseason game.

While the Yankees bats went M.I.A., Sonny Gray was a mess on the mound. He really struggled with his command, issuing four walks, hitting a batter and throwing a wild pitch. Only one other Yankee pitcher crammed all that into a single playoff appearance: Jack McDowell in the 1995 ALDS.

Even worse, Gray gets our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series with this #NotFunFact: only one other starter in major-league postseason history walked four guys, hit a guy and tossed a wild pitch while pitching fewer than four innings: Ramon Ortiz (Angels) in the 2002 ALDS … against the Yankees.

No challenge, no win
Speechless.

The Yankees have suffered plenty of heart-breaking and frustrating losses this season, yet somehow Game 2 managed to top them all, zooming to first place in the W.L.O.T.S. (Worst Loss of the Season) standings. How improbable was this loss?

The five-run blown lead was tied for their second-largest in the postseason; the last time they gagged a five-run lead in the playoffs was the 2002 ALDS (Game 3) against the Angels. And it was the first time ever the Indians erased a deficit of five-plus runs to win a playoff game.
Scoring eight runs, fueled by three homers, should have been enough offense to win this game. Before Friday’s loss, the Yankees were 14-0 all-time in the postseason when scoring at least eight runs and going deep three times in a game.
It was just the second time the Yankees lost a postseason game on the road in the 13th inning or later. It’s probably best to not mention the other one (Game 5 of 2004 ALCS vs. the Red Sox). Sorry.

And still, sometimes, baseball is predictable. This was the third extra-inning playoff contest between these two teams — and the Yankees have now lost all three.

Obviously the major pivot point of the game was the non-challenge by Joe Girardi in the sixth inning. Before we get to the numbers, Girardi’s non-challenge was clearly an inexcusable mistake given the circumstances. Anyways, here’s a couple stats related to the at-bat.

First, Chad Green had faced 190 left-handed batters in his career entering Game 2, and had hit exactly one of them (Chris Davis last year). And Francisco Lindor’s grand slam was the first extra-base hit that Green had allowed with the bases loaded in his career. Second, the Yankees challenged six hit-by-pitch calls in the regular season, which was the most of any team (they ranked 13th in total challenges with 42). And overall, the Yankees 75 percent success rate on all challenged plays this season was the best in the majors.

Now that The Ugly chapter of this game has been written, let’s finish off with The Good. Remember, the Yankees pummeled the likely AL Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber, for six runs and seven hits. Gary Sanchez kick-started the offense with a two-run homer in the first inning. The 24-year-old is the youngest Yankee catcher to homer in a postseason (a 22-year-old Yogi Berra homered in the 1947 World Series as a pinch-hitter).

Aaron Hicks then sent Kluber to the showers with a three-run bomb in the third inning that put the Yankees ahead 6-3. That gave us a nice #FunFact: he joined Bernie Williams and Mickey Mantle as the only Yankee centerfielders to hit a tie-breaking, multi-run homer in the playoffs.

Finally, Greg Bird extended the lead to 8-3 with a towering shot to rightfield in the fifth. Bird and Sanchez became the second set of Yankee teammates under age 25 to homer in a postseason game. Joe DiMaggio and Charlie Keller also did it in Game 3 of the 1939 World Series.

It ain’t over ’til …
The Yankees staved off elimination with a dramatic 1-0 win in Game 3 on Sunday night, showing off their Fighting Spirit once again in this rollercoaster, never-say-die season.

It was the sixth 1-0 win in franchise postseason history and the third in a potential elimination game (also 2001 ALDS Game 3 and 1962 World Series Game 7). Their only other 1-0 playoff win in the Bronx was in Game 1 of the 1949 World Series against the Dodgers.

In contrast to the rest of this run-happy postseason, Game 3 was a classic – and unprecedented – pitchers duel. It was the first postseason game in major-league history where each starter allowed zero runs, no more than three hits and had at least five strikeouts.

Masahiro Tanaka delivered an ace-like performance for the Yankees, carving up the Indians lineup with his nasty, dive-bombing splitter and late-breaking slider. Considering the magnitude of the game, Tanaka’s gem becomes even more impressive and historic. A worthy #FunFact for our ‘Hiro: he is the first Yankee pitcher ever to toss at least seven scoreless innings, strike out seven-or-more guys and give up three hits or fewer in a potential postseason elimination contest.

Aroldis Chapman also came through in the clutch with a white-knuckle, five-out save to seal the win. Since saves became official in 1969, the only other pitcher in baseball history to record a save of at least five outs in a 1-0 win with his team facing postseason elimination was Mariano Rivera in Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS.

As brilliant as Tanaka and Chapman were, the Yankees couldn’t have won the game without the heroics of Greg Bird and his solo homer in the seventh off Andrew Miller. Two other Yankees have gone deep in the seventh inning or later of a postseason contest to break a 0-0 tie — Tommy Henrich in the 1949 World Series (Game 1) and Charlie Keller in the 1939 World Series (Game 4).

Finally, another #FunFact for the Birdman: he is the first player in major-league history to snap a 0-0 tie with a homer in the seventh inning or later and his team on the brink of being eliminated from the playoffs.

Stayin’ Alive
The never-say-die Yankees forced a winner-take-all Game 5 with a convincing 7-3 win at the Stadium on Monday night. The Yankees broke out of their mini-offensive slump with seven runs and were helped out by a sloppy Indians defense that led to six of them being unearned. This was just the second postseason game where a Yankee opponent allowed six or more unearned runs; the other was in Game 2 of the 1960 World Series against the Pirates.

Gary Sanchez added an insurance run in the sixth inning with a solo drive to right-center for his second homer of the postseason. Power-hitting young catchers shining in October is special; only four other backstops under age 25 have hit multiple homers in a single playoffs: Johnny Bench (1970, ’72), Javy Lopez (1995), Brian McCann (2005) and Yadier Molina (2006).

While the offensive fireworks were cool, the star of this game was Luis Severino. He bounced back from his disastrous Wild Card game outing with seven superb and gutty innings. Sevy is the second-youngest Yankee with nine strikeouts in any postseason game (trailing 22-year-old Dave Righetti in the 1981 ALDS). And he is only the fourth pitcher – of any age – in franchise history to win a potential elimination game while striking out at least nine guys. CC Sabathia (2012 ALDS Game 5), Bob Turley (1958 World Series Game 5) and Vic Raschi (1952 World Series Game 6) are the others.

#LoveThisTeam
The Yankees are Kings of the Improbable Comeback, winning Game 5 to become the 10th team in baseball history to overcome a two-games-to-zero deficit in a best-of-five series. Combined with their similar rally in the 2001 ALDS against the A’s, they joined the Red Sox as the only franchises to achieve this incredible feat twice.

Making this amazing victory even more impressive is that it came against a 102-win Indians club that was the AL’s best in the regular season. The Yankees are now 9-2 in postseason series against 100-plus-win teams, and their only losses were to the Reds in the 1976 World Series and the Cardinals in the 1942 World Series.

They’ve been at their best with their backs against the wall this entire season and especially in the playoffs, improving to 4-0 in potential elimination games and 2-0 in winner-take-all games in this postseason. It is the first time in franchise history they’ve won four games when facing elimination in a single postseason, and the first time they’ve won multiple winner-take-all games in a single postseason.

Didi Gregorius had a performance for the ages, lighting up the scoreboard early and often, with a solo homer in the opening frame and then going deep again in the third inning. He joined Jason Giambi (2003 ALCS Game 7) and Yogi Berra (1956 World Series Game 7) as the only Yankees with multiple homers in a winner-take-all postseason game. And … he’s the first shortstop in franchise history to go yard twice in any playoff game.

While Didi provided the power, Brett Gardner brought the grit. He won a grueling 12-pitch battle with Cody Allen in the ninth inning, lacing an RBI single into right field to give the Yankees a three-run cushion with three outs to go. Remarkably, it was the longest at-bat of his career that G.G.B.G. ended with a hit.

CC Sabathia was lights-out through four innings before getting into trouble in the fifth, but still finished with nine strikeouts. That matched his career postseason high that he set in the deciding Game 5 of the 2012 ALDS. Sabathia is just the fourth pitcher in major-league history to whiff at least nine guys in a winner-take-all game twice in his career. The others? Bob Gibson, Curt Schilling and Justin Verlander.

Aroldis Chapman sealed the win with two near-perfect innings and entered the record books with this remarkable #FunFact: He is the first pitcher in postseason history to save a winner-take-all game by throwing at least two hitless innings and striking out four or more guys.

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We will see you Friday night!

The Indians are forcing the Yankees to hit breaking balls by not throwing fastballs

October 6, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last night, in Game One of the ALDS, the Yankees were thoroughly dominated by Trevor Bauer for the first six innings and change. Bauer held the Yankees to two hits and one walk in 6.2 scoreless innings, and struck out eight. He, along with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, held New York to three hits total in the shutout loss. The Yankees were overmatched.

Bauer pitched very well down the stretch in the regular season — he had a 2.42 ERA (3.66 FIP) in his final 12 starts and 78 innings — so last night’s performance didn’t come out of nowhere. It was just a continuation of what he’d done over the final three months of the season. What was different was Bauer’s pitch selection. He went curveball heavy Thursday night.

Fastball: 50.0% (49.5% during the regular season)
Curveball: 36.7% (29.1%)
Cutter: 9.2% (8.2%)
Changeup: 4.1% (6.3%)

Sample size noise? Sure, that’s always possible. Recent postseason history suggests it was by design, however. Last postseason the Indians went to the World Series by emphasizing breaking pitching pitches and making life miserable for hitters. Josh Tomlin, the epitome of a back-end starter, had great success doing exactly that. Consider Cleveland’s pitch selection last year:

	Regular Season	Postseason
Fastballs	65.4%	57.9%
Curveballs	11.9%	16.9%
Sliders	10.3%	15.1%
Changeups	9.7%	4.5%

Fewer fastballs, fewer changeups, more bendy pitches. Why more bendy pitches? Because bendy pitches are hard to hit. The Indians increased their breaking ball usage considerably in the postseason last year and they’re poised to do it again this year. They did it last night. Bauer, Miller, and Allen combined to throw 38.5% breaking balls last night. Four out of ten pitches were breaking balls. It was 29.4% during the regular season.

The Yankees were a good breaking ball hitting team during the regular season. They were a good hitting team overall during the regular season. All types of pitches. You don’t lead baseball in homers and finish second in runs by hitting only fastballs. Look at their numbers:

Fastballs: .360 wOBA (.351 league average)
Curveballs: .274 wOBA (.267 league average)
Sliders: .297 wOBA (.274 league average)
Changeups: .351 wOBA (.304 league average)

That’s all well and good, but here’s the thing: it’s harder to hit breaking balls than fastballs. Look at the league averages. Generally speaking, a great curveball hitting team hits curveballs worse than a bad fastball hitting team hits fastballs. Bendy stuff is hard to hit, even if you’re good at it. The Indians are trying — and based on last postseason and last night, succeeding — to gain an advantage by emphasizing breaking balls.

Also, keep in mind the Indians do not have a normal pitching staff here. They have pitchers with great breaking balls. Miller’s slider. Allen’s curveball. Bauer’s curveball. Corey Kluber’s slider. Carlos Carrasco’s slider. The Indians aren’t sending a bunch of generic middle relievers out to the mound and telling them to throw more breaking balls. They’re telling pitchers with some of the best breaking balls on the planet to throw more breaking balls. That’s tough.

So what do you do if you’re the Yankees? It’s easy to say “sit breaking ball,” but that creates it’s own set of problems. Do that and you’re going to miss hittable fastballs. Most hitters prefer to sit fastball and adjust to the breaking ball because it’s easier to react and slow down your bat than react and speed it up to catch up an unexpected heater. Maybe sit location and zero in on that, then adjust when you’re down to two strikes? I’m not sure.

A case can be made the Indians had the best pitching staff in history during the regular season. I won’t make that case, but it can be done. Now that they’re in the postseason, the Indians are again going breaking ball heavy, which means their pitching staff will be that much harder to hit. The one thing the Yankees can’t do it sit back and wait for fastballs. They’re not coming. They’ll instead have to hope for mistakes, and try to hit a steady diet of some of the nastiest curveballs and sliders in the game.

Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, and the importance of Game One of the ALDS

October 4, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

A few hours before the Yankees won last night’s Wild Card Game, Indians manager Terry Francona announced Trevor Bauer, not Corey Kluber, will start Game One of the ALDS tomorrow. Kluber is, by almost any measure, the best right-handed pitcher in the AL and the likely AL Cy Young winner. The Tribe are instead giving the ball to Bauer.

“We’re trying to get as much flexibility as we can. There are a lot of factors, but I think we set it up (well). We didn’t try to over-complicate it,” said Francona to Jordan Bastian. “I think for a number of reasons, it makes good sense … The biggest thing was keeping him on his five-day. That was really important to Kluber. That was really the only way we could do it.”

Long story short, the Indians are starting Bauer in Game One because they feel he is better equipped to come back on short rest in Game Four, if necessary. (It’ll be Josh Tomlin if they don’t bring Bauer back on short rest.) They don’t want to use Kluber on short rest (yet) after asking him to do it three times last postseason, including twice in the World Series. As it stands, he can now start Game Two and then Game Five on normal rest. There’s a lot going on here, so let’s talk out how this affects the Yanks.

1. It gives the Yankees a better chance to win Game One. This is very simple. Trevor Bauer is not as good as Corey Kluber, thus the Indians’ chances of winning Game One decrease while the Yankees’ chances of winning Game One increase. How much, exactly? Eh, that’s up for debate. But I’d rather face Bauer than Kluber in any game, let alone a postseason game, roughly a zillion times out of a zillion.

I love Francona as a manager, he’s the best in the business as far as I’m concerned, but I can’t help but wonder if he and the Indians are getting a little too cute here. In the LDS era, the team that wins Game One in the best-of-five series has gone on to win the series 71% of the time. I get the big picture view the Indians are taking, but geez, if this were the Yankees, I’d want them to just start the best pitcher in the league in Game One and try to take an early series lead. In the postseason, the most important game is always the next game on the schedule.

2. Expect Bauer’s leash to be short tomorrow. As we saw last year, Francona is very aggressive with his bullpen in the postseason, and there’s no reason to think this year will be different. Should Bauer struggle early, it won’t be long before Andrew Miller starts warming up. And because the Indians have Kluber lined up for Game Two and can reasonably expect him to pitch deep into the game (because he’s so damn good), Francona might push his top relievers a little more than usual in Game One, knowing he probably won’t need them as much in Game Two.

Point is, the Yankees are going to have to capitalize on Francona’s decision to start Bauer over Kluber in Game One by actually scoring runs against Bauer, before he gets the hook and bullpen comes into play. Bauer faced the Yankees twice during the regular season, both times in the second half, and allowed two runs in 13 innings. If he does something like that again, the Yankees are in trouble. The bullpen will ready to go at a moment’s notice.

3. Game One is basically a must win. No, it is not a literal win or go home must win, but the Yankees do not want to be down 1-0 in the series with Kluber lined up for Game Two. That’s a good recipe for a quick 2-0 series deficit. Even with Chad Green and David Robertson presumably available for Game Two, facing Kluber down in the series is a tough assignment. Every postseason game is important, and that is especially true when trying to avoid having your back up against the wall against a guy like Kluber.

4. It’s gonna rain Friday. The current weather forecast calls for rain pretty much all day in Cleveland on Friday, meaning Game Two might get postponed. Should that happen, the game would be played Saturday, during the scheduled off-day, and Games Two through Four would be played three consecutive days. That’ll screw up each team’s bullpen deployment a bit. It’s also ruin the whole “start Kluber on regular rest in Game Five” plan. If Game Two gets rained out and he has to pitch Saturday instead, Kluber would have to start Game Five on short rest. Hmmm.

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Joe Torre used to say Game Two was the biggest game of the series because you had a chance to go up 2-0 or down 0-2, and that’s why he always started Andy Pettitte in Game Two. He trusted Andy. Of course, that’s easy to say when you have David Cone or David Wells or Rogers Clemens or Mike Mussina to start Game One, not Trevor Bauer. But that’s pretty much the approach the Indians are taking. They’re starting their best in Game Two.

With Kluber looming, the Yankees don’t want to lose Game One and fall behind in the series. They don’t want to lose Game One and fall behind in the series no matter who is pitching Game Two, but with Kluber set to pitch that game, if feels like there’s even more urgency to win Game One. It does to me, anyway. Hopefully the decision to start Bauer backfires and the Yankees can pick up a Game One win against a pitcher not as good as Kluber. If they do that, suddenly it’ll be Kluber on the mound feeling that urgency in Game Two.

Yankees acquire Erik Kratz from Indians for cash

August 31, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees have brought in some extra catcher depth. The team announced this afternoon they’ve acquired veteran journeyman backstop Erik Kratz from the Indians for cash considerations. He is not on the 40-man roster and I assume he’s heading to Triple-A Scranton for the time being.

Kratz, 37, hit .270/.359/.472 (132 wRC+) with 13 homers in 326 Triple-A plate appearances with the Indians before the trade. He has MLB time with the Phillies, Blue Jays, Royals, Astros, and Pirates, and is a career .200/.248/.362 (62 wRC+) big league hitter. Twenty-four homers in 647 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at though.

At some point Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine will have their appeals heard and serve their suspensions stemming from last week’s brawl with the Tigers. Kyle Higashioka, the third catcher, is currently on the Triple-A disabled list with a shoulder injury. Also, Triple-A backup Wilkin Castillo left last night’s game with a knee injury, so yeah. The Yankees needed another backstop.

Midnight tonight is the deadline for teams to acquire players and have them be eligible for the postseason roster, and that’s a hard deadline. The player doesn’t have to be in the big leagues or even on the 40-man roster, but he has to be in the organization by midnight, otherwise no postseason. No exceptions or loopholes. Kratz is postseason eligible for the Yankees.