Fan Confidence Poll: July 26th, 2010

July 26, 2010 by Mike Axisa 65 Comments

Record Last Week: 4-2 (45 RS, 34 RA)
Season Record: 62-35 (533 RS, 405 RA, 61-36 Pythag. record), 3.0 games up
Schedule This Week: @ Indians (four games, Mon. to Thurs.), @ Rays (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

The week started off with a much needed day off, but the Angels quickly turned thing sour by blowing the Yankees out on Tuesday. The Yanks did salvage a split of the two game set the next day thanks to Colin Curtis’ first career homer.
The Royals came in for a four game series once the Halos left town, and the Yanks did exactly what they were supposed to do. Alex Rodriguez hit his 599th career homer and helped the Yanks take the opener, who also blew KC out on Friday. Sergio Mitre got smacked around in his return to the mound the next day, but another blow out win yesterday gave the Yanks three wins in the series.
Injury Zone: Nick Swisher missed two games with a sore Achilles, while Andy Pettitte is hopeful for a quick return from his groin strain. Al Aceves will join the team on their road trip this week, and is scheduled to throw some bullpen sessions. Alex Rodriguez is day-to-day after being hit by a pitch in the forearm, ditto top prospect Jesus Montero.
With a little more than a week before the trade deadline, the Yankees were rumored to be the front-runners to land Diamondbacks’ ace Dan Haren. They were never really close to a deal, and Haren ultimately ended up with the Angels. The Yanks did however make a play for Joakim Soria, and are interested in Jhonny Peralta.
Jon Albaladejo was recalled following Pettitte’s injury, then soon demoted to make room for Mitre.
Former Yankee manager Ralph Houk passed away at age-90.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

{democracy:106}

B-Rando

I’m sticking with my 8. The Yanks just need to keep on keepin on. A trade for a decent bench guy, or even a bullpen arm would be enough to put them over the top I believe. We’ve yet to see them click on all cylinders and yet they continue to win and put space between themselves and the Sox and Rays.
Reggie C.

I voted an 8.

I love the way the heart of the order is coming together. Once Arod hits that 600th hr, he can really settle in and start a march to 30 hrs. Teix too now looks like he’s on his way to 30. I can only hope that Grandy can have a strong finish to the season, and yesterday’s performance is a glimpse of the damage he can inflict. So c’mon Grandy! Build on it! The guys have finally paid the electric bill.

I’m impressed with the number of yankees farm hands who’ve turned in superlative seasons. The farm is finally rich of quality, pitchable ML arms; a collection that for some reason didnt trump a middling Angels package. Yes, even if the ptbnl is Skaggs. Yeah, i’m alittle disappointed. Perhaps Cash can finally trade some of the better depth for Soria.
- Scout
  
  I think it is encouraging that the Yankees’ organization now has the kind of talent other teams want when they are prepared to deal their stars. A few years ago, the Yankees would not have found themselves in those conversations.
CS Yankee

I’m thinking still a 9…Jeet’, Teix, Arod, Posada, & Grandy are getting hot versus Grit, Joba & The Chad Ho Moseley beast.

I was bummed that they sent down Albie and really getting to the point of a) send Joba down (while you still can) to get him corrected or b) trade him. He has said he wants to be a starter and overall would be better using his whole arsenal versus just the heat & slider. They are just spinning their wheels with him now.

Should be a fun second half and let’s hope Pettitte comes back after 3 weeks, not 5.
RAB is loco ese

Rab,

The toughest part for me is that we all know every major league baseball team demands more from the Yankees when trading with them. According to a few articles I’ve read regarding the Haren trade, most commentators and sports writers agree this was a pure salary dump as the DBacks did not get close to the return they were demanding from the Yankees. They also demanded the Yankees take on Haren’s full salary which is around 33 mill left. Cashman stood strong and told DBacks management that if they want the Yankees to eat Haren’s entire remaining contract the quality of prospects returned would be of lesser value. To wit, the DBacks replied Joba, Noesi, and Betances is the bottom line. Now I understand how many non Yankee fans feel about the yankees and the salary structure. It doesn’t mean we should bow down and just give up the farm. I more than anyone wanted Haren in pinstripes. He would have been a number 2 and pushed AJ down to number four.

Here’s a pure hypothetical, and please do not take offense to this hypothetical because I more than anyone am the biggest Cash supporter. But if the Yankees fail to win this year we all have to agree the Vazquez deal was a failure because he will walk and the 1st round compensation most likely will not match Melky, Vizcaino, and Dunn (whom I was very high on).

In turn if the Yankees fail to win it all this year the Granderson trade will be scrutinized as well. Now hear me out. I love Grandy. He is an ambassador to the game. But if his numbers get better he will still most likely have a down year. Now the pressure will be even bigger next year to prove he was worth a young upcoming Austin Jackson who may never reach Granderson offensive potential but right now is a better defensive outfielder. I say hands down a better defensive outfielder, as I’ve watched time and again Granderson have trouble reading fly balls. In fact I would not be surprised to see Granderson in LF some time next year. Now the other pieces of that trade were Coke and Kennedy. Coke was a valuable lefty out of the pen and Kennedy is a valuable trade commodity. So say for example, HYPOTHETICALLY (and I know TommyCarlosJohnRamirez) we do not live in hypothetical world, but say we never made the Granderson trade. Now we trade have 10 mill free up that Grandy is being paid and we trade for Haren. We give DBacks Kennedy, Pope, and Z-Mac.
Are the Yankees a better team with Swisher Gardner and perhaps Jackson in outfield with Haren in rotation?
Lastly, now we can turn around and trade Vazquez to Phills for Jason Werth and our OF is better and we have Jackson as late call up and defensive replacement. How many people like that team better?

But is
t’s pure Hypotheticals and we can only hope that yesterday was the beginning of good things to come from Granderson. One last note I was skeptical about the Granderson trade when it was made but he happens to be one of my favorite players so I was hoping he would have monster year not only offensively but defensively as well. Let’s hope he turns it around and makes trade a smart move.
- MattG
  
  Too much hindsight here for my liking. Winter 2009, Cashman looked down and saw two players, Damon and Matsui, coming off phenomenal years, and thought to himself that at their age and with their health issues, they were huge risks. He showed real balls replacing those two fan favorites, and not only did he replace them, he actually appeared to have improved the team.
  
  The fact that neither move worked out is not the point of this exercise. I have great confidence in Cashman’s decision making process. He took two spots on the roster that were nearly certain for significant declines, and found a way to replace them with a realistic shot at significant upside. That’s a great job.
- CS Yankee
  
  Understand most of the your post and let’s remember that hindsight is always 20/20.
  
  Ajax had like only 4 HR’s in AAA, his lack of power plus adding him to another inexperienced Grit (who also lacks power) made this trade. I don’t think they wanted two unproven OF’ers that didn’t even have a power component to the equation.
  
  Javy was another solid trade, I didn’t like the poor treatment of skipping his starts and jerking him around but it worked out. I don’t think they would do that to AJ (even with the June he had). Dunn (who i also liked) has had control problems and those are hard to correct but when can be corrected (see Rox Jimenez)..wow! Most look at the lost of Viz in the trade and that will likely take another 2-3 years to grade but the Melky part of the trade was nothing to complain about since Grit had a better D, was a threat on the bases, higher BA & OBP with just a little less power while 10X’s as cheap.
  
  I think the yankees make the exception and offer arb. to Javy unless Lee fails into place. Next years draft is highly rated and if Javy took arb., the cost wouldn’t be much considering that it would be only for another year (less risk).
  - Andy In Sunny Daytona
    
    Did you just compare Michael Dunn to Ubaldo Jimenez?
    
    Sir, you have balls the size of pumpkins.
    - CS Yankee
      
      LOL
      
      Dunn as a Yankee prospect >>> any other prospect
      Dunn as another teams prospect < Chad Gaudin
      
      The (extreme) point is that the control issue that Dunn has limited his potential greatly (even more greatly as a relief pitcher). Jimenez coming of age is great stuff and he isn't grouped with those players in my (or anybodys eyes) but rather meant as the extreme upside to correcting control issues.
  - Accent Shallow
    
    I would have been an advocate for Melky over Gardner. Clearly, I was mistaken — Gardner has been significantly more valuable.
    
    (Until Melky pops those 80 XBHs that a certain prominent baseball analyst said he would)
- vin
  
  “But if the Yankees fail to win this year we all have to agree the Vazquez deal was a failure because he will walk and the 1st round compensation most likely will not match Melky, Vizcaino, and Dunn (whom I was very high on). ”
  
  First round compensation + adding a guy of Javy’s caliber to the defending WS champions who needed another starter definitely outweighs Melky, Arodys and Dunn. Besides, it really wasn’t Javy and Logan for those 3, it was Javy + compensation for Arodys. As Axisa has said many times, Melky is a nice player when he’s making 6 figures… but not so much when he’s in 7 figures.
  
  Also, Dunn is completely fungible. How is he any different than Logan? Hard throwing lefties who walk too many guys aren’t all that hard to come by.
  
  While Vizcaino has very nice potential, he was still a guy who had never pitched in a full-season league. He was, at best, 3-4 years from making the big leagues with the Yankees, and they already have Banuelos who is farther along and Jose Ramirez who they felt has comparable upside to Vizcaino.
  
  The Yanks are in the business of being WS contenders, and more now than ever since so many of their key players are aging. The Javy trade was the right move at the time, and that is the only way you can judge it… not by what happens in retrospect.
- Tom Zig
  
  I can’t figure out if this is on or off topic
- Januz
  
  I am not going to call the Vazquez trade a failure. First, no one knows how Vizcaino will do in the future (He has been hurt, last time I heard. As for Melky, this season he has been inferior to Brett Gardner, and the differencial has not been close. As for Vazquez, while he has not been CC Sabathia, he has not been Carl Pavano either. As long as Andy is out, he is essentially the #2 starter (He has been better than AJ & Phil the last month). If Seattle would have asked for Montaro PLUS for Lee, knowing that Lee was a luxury instead of a necessity, would would they have asked for then……. Montaro, and Gary Sanchez? Or maybe they lose the division to Tampa, and have to worry about even making the playoffs? I am glad they have Vazquez, and if he helps the team win the World Series, and they get a first rounder for him (Making up for the one they will spend on Cliff Lee), and Vizcaino does not turn out to be Josh Johnson or Stephen Strasburg, then the trade will be a major success.
- http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
  
  This is waaaay too much hindsight, man.
bonestock94

9.

In reference to the trade rumors, my dad gave me a good reminder yesterday. Yankees rumors don’t really pan out often. You rarely hear about a rumor when it comes to Cashman, it just happens and it’s unexpected.
- vin
  
  Exactly. Cashman only knows ninja-mode.
- Mike HC
  
  The Granderson trade was rumored. I remember people weighing in on if Cashman should accept the deal or not for at least hours before the deal was done.
Klemy

Still at an 8, even though I’m close to being a 9.

Side note for the week: I’m really disappointed we sent Albie back down after his performance the other night. He finally came up and threw well and we sent him right back anyway. I’d rather have seen one of Chad Ho Mosely sent packing.
http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

Staying strong at a 9. My vote won’t drop until the team’s place in the standings drops.
Ross in Jersey

Voted 9. Only Andy’s injury and Joba’s ineffectiveness are holding me back from voting 10.

62 wins going into a 4 game series with Cleveland, and no other club has 60 yet. Good times to be a Yankee fan.

Looking big picture, they’re setting themselves up where they can afford a bad week or two and it won’t kill them. They’re putting pressure on the Rays just to keep pace and they’re 8 games (!!) up for a playoff spot. While they haven’t clicked on every cylinder yet, they have good team synergy. Usually the starters carry the team. Recently the offense has picked it up and bailed out the starter. Robertson, Moseley and Logan of all people have looked strong recently in the pen.

There’s no big holes and if Boston continues to struggle it may be another uneventful September as they cruise to a division title.
nsalem

9 I am assuming after yesterday, Robertson will now get his shot at
set up and they may mix and match upon Marte’s reurn. Would like to see Abaladejo back soon and him an improved Logan plus Joba can deal with inning 7. With this bullpen plus Phil joining them for the post season I feel ring 28 is a real possibility. Soria would be a great addition but would come at a high price possibly DRob and/or Joba plus a non Jesus top prospect. Mixed feelings but in Brian I trust. Would be happy either way.
Mike Nitabach

I voted 8, because I think the pitching staff needs some work, especially in the several-years time window.

Incidentally, I am really, really impressed by A-Rod’s approach since he hit #599. Instead of trying to hit #600 every at-bat, he is just sticking with what has worked so well this season and focusing on making solid contact.
- Ross in Jersey
  
  Just so you know, I’m asking because I’m curious, so forgive me if this sounds confrontational.
  
  Why do you think the pitching staff needs help in the big picture? CC is here for at least another few years and he’s 30 years old. Hughes is 24 and is locked in. In all likelyhood, Lee will be added in the off-season who adds another strong arm who will age well. DoTF, Ivan Nova has been maturing nicely and looks like you could pencil him in to be a #4 or 5 starter on this team if he stays here.
  - Mike Nitabach
    
    I’m thinking also about the bullpen. Also, I did not count the possible Lee signing in my score. If I count Lee as a definite future member of the rotation, then I might up my score to 9.
    - RL
      
      Have to agree with the long term assessment of the pitching staff. Lee is not signed, but we all expect him to. Will Pettite retire (especially if the team wins #28)? Will Javy stay through arbitration or be allowed to go if the team feels he wants too much and they continue to not offer arb? If we don’t get Lee, and Pettite and Javy go, that leaves CC, Hughes and AJ. Not bad, but a lot to make up in order to match this year’s rotation, even if Hughes continues to mature and improve. If Joba sticks around, I’d like to see him start next year. I doubt we’ll get Hughes-like performance out of him over the course of the season, but he could and should be at least a serviceable number 5. I’m at an 8, feeling strongly about this year, but not so sure yet about the follow on years.
- MattG
  
  That’s funny, I see the opposite. I’ve noticed three swings, one in which he ended up falling on his right knee, that are the biggest swings I’ve ever seen him take.
  
  But we are both right–he has taken several short swings once he has reached 2 strikes.
  - Mike Nitabach
    
    Well, if we’re thinking about the same falling-down swing, I think that was when the Yanks already had a substantial lead. So why not take a monster cut? But when the score has been close, my impression is that he has used a more compact swing.
    - MattG
      
      Probably the short answer, to “Why not take a monster cut?,” is that’s not his swing. I can’t imagine any of the previous 599 went out on a swing like that, and it concerns me that he’d change his swing at all, regardless of the circumstances. That’d indicate he’s thinking a little too much about the milestone.
      
      But like I said, you’re right, too. He’s sold out on a couple of swings, but he’s not gone so far as to ignore the team’s circumstances. He’s gotten 4 hits and a pair of walks since 599, with only one strike out (this is all off memory, so pardon me if I’m off a bit), and that is excellent results.
      - Mike Nitabach
        
        Would you agree that in comparison to when he was at #499, he’s taking a much better approach now?
        
        MattG
        
        I was stunned to learn that there was only 28 at bats between 499 and 500. It seemed like 280.
        
        The man’s schizophrenic. I guess we are to be happy he’s only being the garden variety schizo this time around, as opposed to the straight-jacket case he was 100 dingers ago.
        
        Mike Nitabach
        
        HAHAHAH! Yeah, it did seem like 280.
        
        Andy In Sunny Daytona
        
        WTF are you talking about? He’s schizophrenic?
        
        MattG
        
        Oh yeah, big time. He’s perpetually torn between selfish, big-time superstar and humble, fan-favorite wannabee team player. He can’t decide if he’s Reggie or Derek.
        
        http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering
        
        Derek Jeter: the most humble man in the world. Stay deluded, my friends.
        
        CS Yankee
        
        Jeet': The most PC player of all time who you don’t feel ever says what’s really on his mind. Has stayed out of trouble to date and is quite humble.
        
        Arod: Sometimes says the right thing, sometimes says what’s on his mind. Has gotten into quite a bit of trouble with call girls (while married), divorce, “loosey-goosey” ‘roid admissions and cougars (se Madonna).
        
        I agree…half Reggie, half Jeter equates to split personalities. As long as he rakes, it doesn’t matter much though.
        
        let’s give him another nickname (#13)…like “Reg-ter”.
        
        Mike HC
        
        huh? What has Jeter ever done or said to make you think he is not relatively humble? I’m not saying he is Mahatma Gandhi, but he is a hell of a grounded guy for being put on the Mantle, Joe D etc … pedestal for basically his entire career.
        
        ARod, on the otherhand, has admitted to making changes and attempting to be more of a team player.
http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime-Jesus & Maquinito FTW

Eight. Very happy with the team so far, but there are improvements that can be made.
Scout

What surprises me is that there are still readers who vote no confidence whatsoever and close to it. My goodness, but that strikes me as the depth of pessimism! Perhaps such fans would be happier rooting for, say, the Mets? Misery loves company.
- Ross in Jersey
  
  I’m sure they’re just trolls trying to drag down the average.
- http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
  
  Pretty sure they’re trolls (or really, really dumb).
- Mike HC
  
  I always find the 3 and 4’s more interesting than than the 1 and 2’s. If you hate the Yanks, I get voting low, but who actually sits there and decides they are only a 3-4. It just seems really odd to me.
http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

I went 8 as well.

I could be talked into a 9 if Andy or Nova was in the rotation instead of Mitre.
http://channel0.tumblr.com Brendan

9. As far as I’m concerned, a first-place finish is a foregone conclusion, but our bench and bullpen weaknesses could kill us in a short playoff series.

Off-topic, and this is a pet obsession of mine, but who in the Yankees scouting hierarchy has Pat Venditte not properly fellated that he hasn’t earned a bump up to Trenton? Three seasons at A-ball and the Ambidextrous One has posted nothing but sick numbers, 1.60 ERA, 0.914 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 6.16 K/BB. Who, exactly is the originator of the “he’s not a prospect” meme and where is the evidence to support that? What would be the harm in putting him on a faster track to see if he can handle it?
- MattG
  
  two reasons to be a 9:
  
  Girardi’s bullpens always get better as the season moves on. What looks like a weak pen now might well be a strength come October, and it might be the same guys
  
  Cashman’s bench always gets better as the season moves on. There will be different players sitting there next week.
- Scout
  
  Venditte has a large hurdle to overcome — the innate conservatism of baseball organizations. They mistrust “trick” pitches and those who throw them, and Venditte is the ultimate trickster. Add to this the face that the organization probably sees the relievers now at Trenton as better prospects because, unlike him, they actually throw the usual repretoire and do so with better stuff. I’m not saying this view is correct, but I suspect it reflects how most in the organization see things.
- CountryClub
  
  1st place a foregone conclusion? That’s pretty optimistic. I do think they will win the division, but I think the rays will hang around.
Jose the Satirist

10. There is about a 90% this team makes the playoffs. They will not be stopped.
- http://channel0.tumblr.com Brendan
  
  If there’s a 90% chance they make the playoffs, isn’t there a 10% chance they’ll be stopped?
  - Pete
    
    no. for the yankees, 90% is 100%.
    - http://channel0.tumblr.com Brendan
      
      And freedom is slavery. And ignorance is strength.
Tampa Yankee

Solidly at a 9. They need to continue to take care of business and take 3 of 4 in CLE before heading to TB. Hopefully we can take 2 of 3 with Hughes (vs. Davis), Javy (vs. Garza) and CC (vs. Shields) lined-up and missing Price and Niemann (side note: I’m very excited as I have tix to Friday and Sundays games and this will be my first time seeing Hughes start).
- CountryClub
  
  I was going to post something similar. If the Yanks could pick up 2 games this week it would be pretty big.
  - Tampa Yankee
    
    Most definitely. Avoiding Price and Niemann in a 3 game set is huge IMO. The Yanks definitely have the opportunity to distance themselves.
bonestock94

Oh god, I just read that the Yankees offered Montero in talks for Soria. Thankfully Dayton Moore is their GM and they said no. My confidence in the front office dropped to 3.
- http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
  
  As people have pointed out, a lot of the people who are reporting this are the same ones who had the Yankees as frontrunners for Haren. I certainly HOPE it’s not true, blergh.
  - nsalem
    
    I am not advocating a trade of Montero, but I believe the addition of Soria would turn us instantly into a 110 win type team and very strong WS favorites. This would be a return to a 1996 end of game scenarios for us only this time with a much better offense.
    - bonestock94
      
      Considering Mariano was worth 2 wins above replacement last year I highly doubt that.
      - http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
        
        I’m a 9 as ever, get well soon Andy
        
        http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
        
        Wow, why the heck did this go here? Reply fail, DFA me.
        
        Andyway, I’m just gonna say it, since this comment, which was supposed to be a standalone comment, ended up here: I don’t think ANY reliever is too valuable, especially not a closer, but I also think FG WAR doesn’t show Mariano Rivera’s worth.
      - nsalem
        
        Chamberlain has is 2/5 in save opportunities. Soria is at 93 per cent. Chamberlain has taken us out of at least 5 other games this year. Yankees are on pace to win 102 games and if we had Soria pitching in Chamberlains spots it would be safe to say we would be 3 or 4 games better off
        which would bring us to 108 extrapolation. WAR is a great number but I am applying numbers to a specific situation.
    - Mike HC
      
      It would surely help us immensely for the next two years. But it is some risk to give up a guy like Montero for any reliever no matter how good.
- Ross in Jersey
  
  Relax. They “dangled” him, probably to try to gauge what the price was for Soria. KC said no, now they know they’re asking for the moon and the stars. Big deal. It doesn’t mean they were going to pull the trigger on that.
- bonestock94
  
  Yea, you’re both right. Scary stuff though, especially considering WAR and Soria’s shoulder troubles last yr.
Carlosologist

I voted 8. I’m confident that the bullpen is bound to get better and Andy will make a quick return to the rotation.
Bob Stone

It’s been a tough week and a half with the passing of Bob Sheppard and The Boss. But I am still at 9. This team should win 105 to 110 games.

I am still totally fed up with poor umpiring and want robots or Questec or some other automated system and replay to replace umpires. Umpires have outlived their usefulness. And don’t tell me about the “human element” unless you want me to throw-up on you.