Fan Confidence Poll: May 23rd, 2011

Eight-run 7th gives Yanks series win over Mets
Bartolo's Big Test

Record Last Week: 5-2 (45 RS, 19 RA)
Season Record: 25-20 (235 RS, 185 RA, 28-17 pythag. record), one game up in the loss column
Opponents This Week: vs. Blue Jays (Mon. to Weds.), Thurs. OFF, @ Mariners (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the (new and interactive!) Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Eight-run 7th gives Yanks series win over Mets
Bartolo's Big Test
  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

    Eight.

    #boring

  • Guest

    Eight.

    Things are still pretty awesome in terms of the big picture.

    Almost downgraded to a 7 just as a punishment for bunting Granderson, but that seemed a bit vindictive.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    Confidence Level: 1.

    This whole team sucks. All the players we signed suck. We should let Cano walk when he hits free agency because he’s a bust waiting to happen.

    The people who gave these overrated assholes these fat deals were schmucks who got suckered. The only good player in the whole freaking organization is Brett Gardner.

    Joba against the midges is the lasting impression of the past decade. This franchise is snakebitten, baby.

    Sincerely,
    Theoretical Yankees principal owner Fred Wilpon

    • Hughesus Christo

      Dammit, you beat me.

      I’m going with it anyway.

      “In light of Mets owner Jeff Wilpon’s comments to The New Yorker today, my confidence in the Yankees’ franchise suddenly shot to 11. Yes, 11. Not because anything changed for the Bombers in the last week, but because I got a reminder of how bad ‘bad’ can be.”

      • CS Yankee

        Just read Wilpon’s comments and either that dude meds are out-of-whack or he is trying to impress Hank on Facebook.

        NYY stuck at 8…Mets -3 with Wilpon, 5 otherwise.

    • IRF

      What a mess.

      Fred Wilpon is like Larry David playing George Steinbrenner playing Donald Trump

    • Mike HC

      Well done. That Wilpon stuff was unbelievable and quite entertaining. Took a note out of the Dan Gilbert playbook maybe. But he actually ripped into guys still on the team.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      Couldn’t believe it when I read that. I mean, people can say what they want about Cashman saying crazy things in public, and there have been a few things that made me o_O… but at least he never said anything like that.

  • http://twitter.com/bryanl26 Bryan L

    8.

  • http://twitter.com/AndrewLeighNYC Andrew

    I voted 1, no way can this organization overcome the loss of Jess Todd. Impact arms like that don’t come around very often.

    In reality though, 5-2 is a good way to get everyone past the craptastic Royals-Red Sox stretch. If the starters keep throwing as they have been and stay healthy (big ifs, but not impossible ifs), it’s hard to be down on this team’s chances.

  • The Big City of Dreams

    0 this is the worst 1st place team ever :D

  • YanksFan

    Despite reading Wally Matthews bash Joe G. I am still a 9. Still the best O in baseball & you can see them starting to get their avergage up which will be scary for the rest of the leaque.

  • http://procrastinationperfected.tumblr.com/ BigDavey88

    I went from 7 to 8. Winning can do that.

  • David, Jr.

    8 for this year. They have plenty of upside from several position players, a decent pitching staff has been pieced together, and the competition is not dazzling.

    Longer term, starting to see a cloud, down to 7, because of their affinity for stupid contracts for older players. Looking to 2013:

    Jeter – age 39 – 17M
    ARod – age 38 – 28M
    Burnett – age 36 – 16.5M
    Tex – age 33 – 22.5M
    Soriano – age 33 – 13M

    Not counting CC in this. I have total confidence in him going forward.

    They desperately need to get younger. This deadline will tell a lot. If they trade prime prospects for an older pitcher, it will be disasterous.

    • The Big City of Dreams

      “They desperately need to get younger.”

      Are they willing to do what it takes to get younger?

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

      Those contracts aren’t great, obviously, but they still have good deal of younger players with manageable contracts in Granderson, Swisher, Cano, Martin, Gardner, and most of the bullpen. Getting younger is nice and all, but getting younger just for the sake of getting younger isn’t.

      • David, Jr.

        It will be interesting to see what Posada does between now and the All Star break. Perhaps an opportunity to get younger and better all at once will be presented.

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

          I think he’ll do fine. His hits are starting to land more frequently thanks to an improved LD% and he’s still tkaing a ton of walks. Once the power reappears, he’ll be fine.

    • CP

      They desperately need to get younger.

      No, they just need to get better. Having 3 players over age 33 on your roster isn’t a problem, and who cares what they’re being paid? The 2009 Yankees had 5 regular contributors over age 33 (plus Mo, who I don’t think really counts), and that season turned out pretty well.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Longer term, starting to see a cloud, down to 7, because of their affinity for stupid contracts for older players. Looking to 2013:

      Jeter – age 39 – 17M
      ARod – age 38 – 28M
      Burnett – age 36 – 16.5M
      Tex – age 33 – 22.5M
      Soriano – age 33 – 13M

      Bad news: That’s a lot of money to a lot of old guys.

      Good news: Burnett, Jeter, and Soriano will all likely be gone by 2014. That 2013 is the last doomsday year; after that, it’s only ARod and Tex, and hopefully those two will be supported by still-in-their-prime Cano, Granderson, Montero, Hughes, Joba, Robertson Banuelos (and possibly by one or two fresh-faced rookies amongst the grab bag of Heathcott, Murphy, Culver, Gumbs, Williams, Romine, Sanchez, Adams, Joseph, Gamel, Segedin, etc.)

      • David, Jr.

        The toughest one in the “Bad News” is Jeter. Shortstop in 2013? Where else?

        Your “Good News” scenario is awesome. I have no doubts at all about Montero as a hitter. I hope the rest of them develop and/or aren’t traded away unless we get young prime talent in return.

    • Ted Nelson

      “Jeter – age 39 – 17M
      ARod – age 38 – 28M
      Burnett – age 36 – 16.5M
      Tex – age 33 – 22.5M
      Soriano – age 33 – 13M”

      33 years old is really not old in the first place, but…
      A. They have plenty of very good players who are younger than those guys (2013 ages):

      Cano – 30
      Granderson – 32
      Martin – 30
      Gardner – 29
      Nova – 26
      Hughes – 27
      Joba – 27
      D-Rob – 28

      B. They have a strong farm system… obviously not all of their prospects will work out, but with 5 or 6 top 100 prospect plus some younger guys (Slade and Flores mostly) making a case for the top 100, they have plenty of trade chips and should get at least a few prospects who work out. They can trade some prospects and still hold onto others… that’s the beauty of depth. If they think a certain prospect is overrated and they can get value for him now, that is by no means a definite disaster.

      C. They’re going to replace and/or re-sign guys. The roster is not static. If they decide to let a few guys go from my list in A, they may bring in 20-somethings to replace them.

      D. Total confidence in CC, but Tex is done at 33?

      You’re taking 2/9 of their line-up (22%) and 1/5 of their rotation (20%) that’s old and blowing their importance out of proportion. You’re exagerrating the ages of Tex and Soriano. You’re ignoring the younger players already producing on the roster. You’re ignoring the farm system. You’re ignoring trades.

      • David, Jr.

        I am not feeling a disaster at all, and did not mean to convey that. I have been in the 7-8-9 camp all along. I just see contracts that aren’t likely to give them much value in the later years of their terms.

        Two acid tests related to aging versus getting younger, which I have faith that Cashman will handle properly:

        If they continue to contend, what kind of trade at the deadline? I don’t feel that a young for old trade would fit well for them. It might for this year, but not for the longer term.

        When do they promote Montero to at least DH? That would make them younger. They would develop a middle of the order bat who would be cheap and under their control for a long time. As you have said, prospects generally are never a certainty. However, this one might be, as the material quoted from scouts about his hitting is off of the charts, like the Baseball America quotes that I cited – “veteran scout said he is the best young hitter that he has seen in years”, etc. Let’s say that they are equivalent hitters at this point in Posada’s career. They would go from a 39 yr old who can’t do anything else, is the worst base runner that you could imagine, may be a clubhouse cancer, is certainly nearly done, to a 21 yr old who has unlimited potential. If Montero is ready, what is the gain with Posada?

        • Ted Nelson

          Yeah, I agree that they can’t just sit back and get old… but I’m not worried that they are really headed that way or will. Teixeira is only signed through his 36 year old season. He may decline at any time of course, but he may not decline much before 35, 36. Soriano is only signed through 33, and plenty of relievers peak in their 30s… so I don’t see the worry there: after 2013 the Yankees have no obligation.

          Jeter and A-Rod are major financial commitments, but only about 22.5% of the line-up and 22.5% of the payroll. They have a ready-made Jeter replacement in Nunez, also, should he drop off another cliff. Nunez isn’t a potential star, but he can probably give them about what Jeter’s been giving the past season plus. Posada has one foot out the door and they’ve got a ready made replacement in Jesus, and/or can probably find a cheap veteran DH after the season. A-Rod leads 3B in fWAR this season, but I think they have enough middle-of-the-order bats to replace him and move him down the order as he fades.

          Because not all prospects will make it to the bigs or make a positive impact if they do, it can definitely make sense to trade some for veteran players. The Yankees have good depth in their farm system, so I think there are plenty of scenarios in which they could deal even one of their better prospects for an older starter and it not be a bad move or particularly costly for the future. Their patch-work rotation has held up well enough that I don’t see them making a desperation move anytime soon, if they would have under any circumstances. If they deal a prospect, it’s likely because they thought the return had as much or more value as what they gave up.

          You seem to advocate getting younger for the sake of getting younger. Jesus will get his chance when the Yankees feel it’s the right time, and I don’t see any reason for the Yankees to rush that just because he’s younger than Jorge. If Jesus comes up in one week, one month, or one year he was still born the same day and controlled by the Yankees for years to come. No matter when Jesus comes up the Yankees are on the hook for Posada’s salary this season and not next.

          “If Montero is ready, what is the gain with Posada?”

          A. Is he ready? He’s 21, and even if he’s personally “ready” in terms of having little more to gain offensively in AAA he could still struggle vs. big league pitching as easily as he could do well. If when he first gets up he can’t hit big league pitching as well as Martin, Posada, Jones, Chavez… even Cervelli maybe (short-term)… what’s the point of rushing him up to sit on the bench? Posada’s been hot recently (wOBA for May so far is .339… totally respectable), so I don’t see the rush to push him out at this point. I’m more in favor of giving Posada and Jones some rope to see if they climb out of their slumps or hang themselves. Evaluate what they can give you so you know what you need going forward this season.
          B. Montero might have a lot to gain defensively from waiting. I don’t mind using him as DH, but there could be value in maximizing his catching development.

  • Foghorn Leghorn

    8, I say 8 is the number that I will choose this here week!

    I really would like to see the yanks beat up the Jays….i’m tired of getting kicked around by them.

  • Don Juan

    I’m all the way up to a 10 after yesterday’s game. Lohud’s postgame headline was “Yankees can play smallball, too” and I thought that was really apropos. Our inability to play smallball was the reason for our low avg with RISP but now we have figured it out.

    It’s like in the movie Hook when Rufio says to Peter Pan, “You can fly, you can fight” and then Pan bellows out a humongous crow and the lost boys knew he was back. We can hit HRs, we can pitch, and yesterday we showed we can play smallball, too.

    • The Big City of Dreams

      “We can hit HRs, we can pitch, and yesterday we showed we can play smallball, too.”

      *bellows*

      http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ep.....CDGMwLQjSL

    • Esteban

      Kevin “The Troll” Kernan’s column today was full of facepalm too.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      It’s like in the movie Hook when Rufio says to Peter Pan, “You can fly, you can fight” and then Pan bellows out a humongous crow and the lost boys knew he was back.

      Yeah, that.

      (scratches head)

  • ADam

    7… Big picture.. Bart Fred Nova can’t sustain this pace and the yanks can’t hit w RISP… They did yesterday, but that just means they are due for a another series where they go 3-35 w/ RISP…

    • Ted Nelson

      “the yanks can’t hit w RISP… ”

      Based on what? A tiny sample size this season?

  • swishers fauxhawk

    Solid 8-9. Offense is rounding back into form, our pitchers are pitching well, and I watched our team’s best hitter bunt during a sustained rally.

  • Jorge

    I actually dropped to a 7 last week, but am back up to 8. Why? Because watching Nova’s “bend but not break” routine, as well as Hector Noesi’s, reminded me not all pitchers have to profile as future aces to get big league hitters out and give their team a chance to win ballgames.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      +1.

    • Ted Nelson

      Good point. Last season the Yankees’ rotation was just awful and they still had a good season on the whole. Like the depth, too, where if someone goes down (injury or performance) there are options in AAA and possibly Hughes.

  • bonestock94

    7, worried about 4/5th’s of the rotation turning into a pumpkin. I believe the offense is the best in the game though.

  • A-Rod’s Wingman

    I’m at a five. I have long term concerns over this team’s ability to develop starting pitching and long term concerns over the A-Rod contract and the Jeter situation. For the interim I’m worried about Robbie’s OBP and the slumps of Posada, Swisher, and Jeter. Granderson could use a higher OBP too. I’m worried about the clock striking midnight on Colon, Garcia, and AJ, and what’s more concerning is if and when they do turn into pumpkins there might not be a decent replacement available at the trade deadline. Russell Martin’s been awesome, and Teixeira’s earning his salary in a big big way. Gardner’s very quietly turned it around, so not all’s lost. If Swisher or Posada continue to suck long term there will be capable replacements available. Beltran’s an option for RF and Montero’s an option at DH. Middle of the road in terms of confidence in the team.

    • Ted Nelson

      Lot of pessimism there… It’s all going to be alright.

      I can see all of your concerns, but in general you’re overselling them (5?… 50% confidence? #1 offense in baseball after #1 offense last season… what would they have to do to get you to a 8 or 9 or 10? Undefeated with zero runs allowed and 10 runs scored per game?)and some are just not founded in reality. Posada is not in a slump. He’s been on fire lately and his wOBA is a respectable .339 for May to date. It’s one thing to point out weaknesses, it’s another to act like they’re bigger than they are and just make them up when they fly in the face of what’s actually going on.

      • A-Rod’s Wingman

        An 8, 9, or 10? Last time I was at a 10 was the week after they won the World Series. Even then it was hard to be a “10.” To me a ten would be a team with a stacked starting five, a lockdown bullpen, a young offense, a team that plays good defense, and a flowing farm system with little to no big ugly contracts on the books. It’s impossible, but perfection is impossible, so I feel a ten is an unrealistic vote, as much as I feel a zero is an unrealistic vote. An eight or a nine? If they had some young pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and maybe Dan Haren cheaply underteam control, no big ugly longterm deals like A-Rod’s or Jeter’s. For the record, I’ve always stated that I feel the 9-10 is an A, 8 is a B, and 7 is a C grading scale is stupid. Five is average, middle of the road. 10 is perfect, zero would be Mets fans under the Minaya administration.