River Avenue Blues

2013 Payroll Breakdown: Part Three

by 34 Comments

Since our last installment, the Yankees have signed Kevin Youkilis, re-signed Ichiro Suzuki, and avoided arbitration with Brett Gardner. Here’s an updated look at the team’s payroll situation for 2013…

  • Existing Contracts ($121M): Alex Rodriguez ($28M), CC Sabathia ($23M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Derek Jeter ($17M), Robinson Cano ($15M), Curtis Granderson ($15M), David Aardsma ($500k)
  • Players Signed In Offseason ($58.35M): Hiroki Kuroda ($15M), Andy Pettitte ($12M), Youkilis ($12M), Mariano Rivera ($10M), Ichiro ($6.5M), Gardner ($2.85M),
  • Projected Arbitration Salaries ($13M): Phil Hughes ($5.7M), Boone Logan ($2.8M), David Robertson ($2.7M), Joba Chamberlain ($1.8M)
  • Buyouts & Dead Money ($8.75M): A.J. Burnett ($8.5M), Pedro Feliciano ($250k)

That’s a total of $201.1M for 17 roster spots in terms of real dollars, meaning actual 2013 salaries and not the average annual value for luxury tax purposes. The Yankees have opened each of the last five years with a payroll in the $200-2014M range (again, real dollars), leaving them approximately $13M to fill the remaining 23 40-man roster spots assuming they’re willing to spend a similar amount.

The 15 players who are on the 40-man but will not be on the 25-man active roster will earn less than the league minimum. Those guys have split contracts that pay them one amount in the show (something close to the league minimum) and another in the minors (much less). I’ve been estimating those guys at $500k each to make life easy ($7.5M total), but I’ve also seen others estimate that total at $2.5M. Either way, it eats up a chunk of that remaining $13M or so.

Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, David Phelps, Ivan Nova, and Clay Rapada are all in their pre-arbitration years and will pull down a combined $2.5M or so in 2013. That gives us to $203.6M for 22 roster spots, but the 15 non-active roster guys bring us into the $206.1-211.1M range. Two of those last three roster spots could go to Matt Diaz ($1.1M) and Jayson Nix ($900k), who are not on the 40-man at the moment. Either way, the Yankees have something like $3-8M to fill out the roster if they intend to open the season at a similar to level to the last five years.

I don’t expect New York to acquire a real starting catcher at this point, so their remaining holes include a DH and various bench pieces (right-handed hitting outfielder, utility infielder, etc.). Diaz, Nix, and Nunez could fill out the bench, but I hope they’ll seek out at least one more quality reserve player and some minor league contract guys to provide competition in camp. As much as I’d like to see them acquire Jason Kubel, I don’t see it happening. If the Yankees are only willing to spend that $3-8M or so for those remaining spots, the pickin’s will be very slim.

In case you missed it, earlier today I took a super early look at the team’s 2014 payroll situation.

Prospect Profile: Austin Aune

by 66 Comments

(David Minton/Denton Record-Chronicle)

Austin Aune | SS

Background
A Texas kid from the suburbs of Dallas, Aune was a two-sport star at Argyle High School. He led the Eagles to the Texas 3-A football championship game last fall spring by throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 42 total touchdowns. On the diamond, Aune led the team in batting average (.447) and homers (eight) while also doing some pitching. He was named the district co-MVP in football and district MVP in baseball as a senior.

Aune was a strong quarterback prospect and committed to Texas Christian University, which was going to allow him to play both sports. Baseball America ranked him as the 15th best prospect in Texas and 128th best prospect overall prior to the 2012 draft, though there were plenty of concerns about his signability. The Yankees rolled the dice with their second round pick, taking Aune with the 89th overall selection. It was the compensation pick they received for failing to sign second rounder Sam Stafford in 2011. The Yankees had an agreement in place with Aune before the end of the draft, and he officially signed less than two weeks later. He received a $1M bonus that was nearly double the $548,400 slot recommendation.

[Read more…]

2014 Payroll Breakdown: Part One

by 169 Comments

(Gregory Shamus/Getty)

Although the calendar just flipped to 2013, I think we’re all looking ahead to 2014 as far as the Yankees’ payroll is concerned. The club plans to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold one year from now, and because of the way the tax is calculated, they’ll have to stay under that amount for the entire 2014 season. The Yankees haven’t finished a season with a sub-$189M payroll in about ten years, so it’s a significant cut o matter how much ownership and the front office try to downplay it.

The luxury tax is based on the average annual value of contracts* on the 40-man roster and is basically adjusted daily, meaning the “tax hit” for players who don’t spend the entire season on the 40-man (called up late, traded, etc.) is pro-rated. Bonuses count as well, as does the team’s portion of the league’s player benefits. Players benefit costs are shared equally by the 30 teams and will be valued at a touch less than $10.8M in 2013, but they are expected to go up to about $12M for 2014. Just like that, the $189M is really $177M as far as what can actually be spent on players.

Obviously a whole lot is going to change over the next 22 months, but the Yankees have started to plan for 2014 by going heavy on one-year contracts this offseason. Here is where the current 40-man roster stands with regards to the 2014 payroll…

  • Under Contract For 2014 ($80.9M): Alex Rodriguez ($27.5M), CC Sabathia ($24.4M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Ichiro Suzuki ($6.5M)
  • Contract Options For 2014: Derek Jeter ($9.5M player option)
  • Arbitration-Eligible In 2014: Brett Gardner (third time), David Robertson (third time), Frankie Cervelli (first time), Chris Dickerson (first time), Ivan Nova (first time), Michael Pineda (first time), Clay Rapada (first time), Chris Stewart (first time)
  • Pre-Arbitration In 2014: David Adams, Zoilo Almonte, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, Cody Eppley, Ramon Flores, Corban Joseph, Brett Marshall, Melky Mesa, Eduardo Nunez, David Phelps, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine, Francisco Rondon, Nik Turley, Adam Warren
  • Potential Bonuses For 2014 ($37.5M): A-Rod ($6M each for 660, 714, 755, 762, and 763  career homers), Jeter (up to $7.5M based on awards)
  • Free Agents After 2013: David Aardsma, Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Curtis Granderson, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, Boone Logan, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Kevin Youkilis

The Yankees have just four players under contract for 2014, but those four soak up 42.8% (!) of the $189M limit, or 45.7% of the $177M limit, if you prefer. There’s a decent chance two of those players (A-Rod and Ichiro) will be non-playable and need some kind of replacement. It seems like a safe bet that Jeter will exercise his player option, though I suppose he could decline the option and demand a multi-year contract if he has a huge year. That would be something.

Obviously A-Rod won’t hit all five of those homer milestones in 2014. He’s sitting on 647 career homers right now and will miss about half of 2013 due to his hip injury, and you know what? It would be pretty great for 2014 payroll purposes if he managed to hit 13 homers next season to take care of that first milestone. He’d need to have a monster campaign in 2014 to trigger the 714th homer bonus, which is unlikely to happen at this point. Even A-Rod in his prime would have trouble hitting enough homers to trigger that bonus. Saving that $6M would be pretty big in the grand scheme of things, think of it as the ability to acquire a $17-18M player at the trade deadline.

Nova would need to spend about four months in the minors next season to avoid being arbitration-eligible in 2014, which doesn’t seem all that unrealistic if he continues to pitch the way he did in the second half. Pineda would need to spend about three months in the minors to delay arbitration, but remember, he will collect service time while on the DL at the start of the season. He’d have to be activated off the DL when healthy in May or June, then be optioned down and basically spend the rest of the season in Triple-A. I could see the Yankees sending Pineda down for the two or three weeks to delay free agency a year, but not three months to delay arbitration, especially if he’s healthy and throwing well.

Ten players who project to be full-time big leaguers in 2013 are due to hit free agency next winter, including three starting pitchers and half the bullpen. Cano’s free agency is the elephant in the room, as he’s expected to command a nine-figure contract in an age when so many teams have so much money to spend. You don’t have to try all that hard to envision the Tigers, Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Nationals, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs, or Giants making a run at him. I expect the Yankees to re-sign him to a huge contract, and if it’s worth say $23M annually (eight years, $184M?), the Yankees will be left with $73.1M to spend on 35 (!) 40-man roster spots during all of 2014. Doable for sure, but it won’t be easy given the current market.

* I get questions about this every single day. The luxury tax is based on the average annual value of the contracts. Front-loading, back-loading, side-loading, or whatever else you can think of won’t help. MLB will also step in should there be any blatant luxury tax circumvention, such as signing Cano to a one-year, $5M deal for 2014 with a nine-year, $200M player option. It won’t help at all.

Tuesday Night Open Thread

by 89 Comments

So, how has 2013 been treating you so far? Any of you manage to break one of your resolutions yet? I’ve come close, but give me until the end of the week.

Here’s your open thread for the night. The Knicks are playing and that’s pretty much it. Talk about whatever you like. Go nuts.

Holiday Mailbag: DSL Prospects

by 21 Comments

(Rafael DePaula via Josh Norris)

Travis asks: Mike, not a whole lot is made of the DSL. Since the Yankees have added a second GCL team, can you do a top ten DSL players that could make the jump to GCL play?

The DSL, or Dominican Summer League, is the lowest level of affiliated professional baseball aside from Extended Spring Training, which isn’t even a real league. The DSL is for internationally signed players (not just Latin America either) before they’re deemed ready to come to the United States. Some prospects, like Jesus Montero, skip the DSL entirely. Others, like Francisco Rondon, can spend several years there.

The Yankees have had two DSL affiliates since 2007, and prior to that they had one and a half — one full squad and another they split with the Padres. I don’t pay much attention to the team’s DSL affiliates because there’s so much misinformation out there about the kids playing in the league, plus the vast majority of them never make it to the states anyway. The addition of the second Gulf Coast League affiliate should bring more players stateside in the coming years.

I’m going to short-change Travis here and only list seven DSL players who could/should make the jump to the GCL this coming season. I just don’t have enough info on the rest of the guys down there to list another three players, but trust me, there are plenty of others who will come stateside this year. These guys are alphabetical, so don’t confuse this for a ranking.

  • SS Abi Avelino — Signed for $175k in 2011, the 17-year-old Avelino was touted as a defensive whiz at the time of the deal. He hit .313/.409/.402 (139 wRC+) with 19 steals (in 21 attempts) this summer, creating some optimism about his offensive potential.
  • RHP Cris Cabrera — The Yankees signed the 20-year-old right-hander for $400k back in 2009, but his development has been derailed by Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Cabrera was healthy this year and pitched to a 2.84 ERA (4.02 FIP) in 57 innings. He’s a low-to-mid-90s fastball guy when right.
  • RHP Rafael DePaula — If you’ve been reading RAB long enough, then you probably already know DePaula was the team’s best prospect in the DSL this summer. It wasn’t particularly close either. Here’s his Prospect Profile.
  • RHP Dallas Martinez — Martinez, 19, draws comparisons to Manny Banuelos because he’s an undersized pitcher from Mexico. The right-hander received a six-figure bonus in 2011 and pitched to a 2.19 ERA (3.14 FIP) in 65.2 innings this summer. He’s a three-pitch guy with polish but not a ton of upside.
  • OF Wilmer Romero — Signed for $656.5k in 2010, Romero hit .292/.347/.500 (139 wRC+) with six homers this summer after a disappointing 2011 effort (94 wRC+). The 19-year-old has filled out and slowed down a bit, so the tools package isn’t as impressive as it was a few years ago.
  • RHP Luis Severino — The Yankees signed the 18-year-old Severino for $225k in 2011 and he posted a 1.68 ERA (3.14 FIP) in 64.1 innings this year. His fastball sits in the 91-96 range and his slider is on the path to becoming an out pitch.
  • IF Chris Tamarez — A shortstop when the Yankees signed him for $650k back in 2010, the 19-year-old Tamarez has since moved over to third. He hit .333/.390/.487 (149 wRC+) with five homers this summer, but there’s concern about his propensity for the swing-and-miss despite modest power potential.

There’s a very good chance C Luis Torrens, who signed for $1.3M this July, will skip right over the DSL and play in the GCL next year. The team’s two other big money 2012 international signings, OF Alex Palma and SS Yancarlo Baez, are less likely to come stateside right away. 3B Miguel Andujar was New York’s top international signing in 2011 and he jumped right to the GCL this year.

Holiday Mailbag: The Five Tools

by 84 Comments

(J. Meric/Getty)

Dan asks: Could you write a piece on how many of the classic five tools each player on the roster really has? Sure to generate conversation.

The five traditional tools are the ability to hit for average, hit for power, run, throw, and field. I’m no scout and won’t dare slap 20-80 grades on players, so I’m going to stick to three “scoring” categories: average, above-average, and below-average. Those are simple enough and I think most fans can dish those out. I am going to stick to 40-man roster players who have appeared in the big leagues, giving us 13 players…

Average Power Run Throw Field
Robinson Cano above above below above above
Frankie Cervelli below below average below below
Chris Dickerson below average above average above
Brett Gardner average below above average above
Curtis Granderson below above above below below
Derek Jeter above below above average below
Eduardo Nunez average below above above below
Alex Rodriguez average average below above average
Austin Romine below below below average average
Chris Stewart below below below average above
Ichiro Suzuki above below above above above
Mark Teixeira below above below above above
Kevin Youkilis below above below average average

I consider only two players to be above-average at four of the five tools: Cano (lacking run) and Ichiro (lacking power). I think you can make an argument that Ichiro’s arm only plays as average because he takes forever to actually throw the damn thing, but he does have a reputation and that alone prevents runners from taking the extra base. Teixeira is probably the next closest to four above-average tools, but he’ll need to remember how to hit for average first. Gardner doesn’t get enough credit for being able to do a little of everything other than hit for power.

The catchers were the toughest to grade given their sporadic playing time over the last few years, and I think all three of those guys could be considered below-average across the board. Cervelli runs well for a catcher and both Stewart and Romine have strong defensive reputations, so I’ll give them a little love in those departments. My biggest problem with the five tools is that plate discipline gets ignored, and it’s an area where several Yankees (Gardner, Granderson, A-Rod, Tex, Youkilis) would rate as above-average. Durability is another one, the ability to stay on the field counts.

I suspect there will be a lot of disagreement about these, so let me have it in the comments.

New Year’s Open Thread

by 109 Comments

In honor of the New Year, here’s a video with all 252 homers (regular season + playoffs!) the Yankees hit in 2012. They aren’t going to hit nearly that many next season, so enjoy ’em while you can. I’m sure MLBAM is going to pull that sucker down pretty soon.

Here is your open thread for the night as 2012 turns into 2013. Have a very happy and safe New Year’s.