River Avenue Blues

Thoughts on a random Wednesday

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(Kevin C. Cox/Getty)

Baseball news is going to start to slow down in a day or two because of the holidays, and it won’t be until after the new year that things pick back up. Sure, there will be a move or three between Christmas and New Year’s, but GMs and agents and players tend to take it easy that week. Can’t really blame them, it’s a 24/7/365 profession and everyone needs a break at some point.

1. Now that R.A. Dickey has officially been traded to the Blue Jays, I sorta hate that I’m going to have to root against him. He was a blast to watch on the other side of town this season, and I don’t think he’ll have a ton of trouble switching leagues. Yes, the parks aren’t as friendly in the AL East, but he’ll still be well-above-average if not ace-caliber. Someone (I believe Bill Petti) has done recent research showing that the knuckleball removes some of the hitter’s skill from the equation in the pitcher-batter matchup, which would obviously serve Dickey well in the tougher league. The one real criticism I have of the Rays over the last few seasons is their unwillingness to make the big move to go for it, but we certainly can’t accuse the Blue Jays of that. The see an opening in the division and are going for it like hell.

2. So what changed about the Yankees’ evaluation of Russell Martin over the last 12 months? They offered him that three-year, $20M-something extension last offseason after the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (and incentives to get under the luxury tax) were in place, yet they wouldn’t go near the two-year, $17M deal he took from the Pirates a few weeks ago. Do they think his offense will continue to decline? That he’s not a safe bet to stay healthy the next two years given his big career workload? Is his defense not as good as advertised? The Yankees have passed on a ton of free agents over the years and for the most part you can understand why. With Martin, given the dearth of quality catching, it just makes no sense to pass on that price even with the 2014 payroll plan looming, especially since they were so willing to give Ichiro Suzuki two years. So weird.

Late Add: Forgot to include this in the original post, but isn’t Martin + Chris Dickerson > Chris Stewart/Austin Romine/Frankie Cervelli + Ichiro + $4M? Doesn’t that seem obvious?

(Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

3. This is worthy of a larger post later in the offseason, but is there a more important Yankees position player right now than Mark Teixeira? Given the offensive hits the team will take in right field and behind the plate (Derek Jeter is unlikely to hit .316/.362/.429 again as well), the Yankees badly need to Tex to halt his decline and get back to his 30+ homers, 125+ wRC+ ways. I’m not asking him to hit like he did from 2005-2009 (141 wRC+), but he needs to do better than a .332 OBP. Hopefully good health — remember, he had the cough and wrist issues in addition to the calf problem this past year — will help Teixeira improve his offense next season. The Yankees need him to be a middle of the lineup force again. It’s imperative.

4. Here’s the list of unsigned free agents; anyone in particular you want to see the Yankees sign before Spring Training? The big names are Michael Bourn and Scott Hairston and Shaun Marcum and A.J. Pierzynski and blah blah blah. I’m talking about someone off the beaten path, like infielder Ronny Cedeno (110 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2012) for the bench or right-hander Matt Lindstrom (2.85 ERA and 3.24 ERA from 2011-2012) for the bullpen. I’d love to see right-hander Tim Stauffer (3.15 ERA and 3.72 FIP from 2010-2011 before elbow surgery in 2012) on a minor league deal to stash in Triple-A for rotation depth. Any irrational favorites?

Update: The 2012 luxury tax bill: $18.9M $19.3M

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Tuesday: According to Chad Jennings, MLB screwed up the luxury tax calculation and sent the Yankees a revised bill today. The bill increased by $393,648, so the Yankees now owe $19,311,642. The team’s end of season payroll was revised up to $223,302,212.

Saturday: Major League Baseball has slapped the Yankees with an $18,917,994 luxury tax bill for the 2012 season according to Maury Brown. They were the lone team to pay the tax this season — the Red Sox fell short of the threshold by less than $50k — and their end-of-season payroll for luxury tax purposes was $222,512,928. Payment is due sometime in January.

The Yankees have paid $13.9M, $18M, and $25.69M in luxury tax in the three previous seasons. Since the tax was implemented in 2003, New York has paid over $224M in penalties compared to $22M for the rest of baseball combined. The Yankees will be taxed 50% for every dollar spent over $178M in 2013, but the threshold jumps to $189M in 2014. As you know, the team is going to great lengths to trim payroll and avoid that penalty, which would also trigger some revenue sharing rebates.

Tuesday Night Open Thread

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Here’s your open thread for the night. The Nets are playing, and that’s pretty much it. Use this thread to talk about whatever you like. Have at it.

Yankees to field second Gulf Coast League affiliate in 2013

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This has been rumored for a while, but it’s now official according to MiLB.com: the Yankees will field a second rookie level Gulf Coast League affiliate in 2013. The league is expanding from 14 teams to 16 teams as the Bombers double up and the Mets re-join the circuit after a one-year, cost-saving hiatus.

The GCL is lowest domestic minor league level, and it’s usually occupied by recent draftees and internationally signed free agents playing in the United States for the first time. Fielding a second team is a major positive for the farm system, as it’ll provide more innings and at-bats for the young kids. I doubt the two affiliates will play each other (would be neat), but either way this is big and important improvement to the organization’s minor league development system.

The Future of the Bullpen

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(Rob Carr/Getty)

Much has been made of the 2014 payroll plan, specifically how the Yankees will plug numerous rotation and lineup holes in the next 14 months or so while trimming payroll. The combination of one-year contracts signed this winter and impending free agencies mean the team could be looking to fill as many as three rotation spots and six everyday lineup spots. It’s a daunting task, and yet we all seem to be overlooking the bullpen.

Right now, the Yankees are projected to open 2013 with four relievers who will qualify for free agency after the season: Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, and David Aardsma. That leaves David Robertson (due to hit free agency after 2014), Clay Rapada, and the long-man (Ivan Nova? David Phelps?) as the hold-overs heading into 2014. Cody Eppley deserves a mention here as well. Standard disclaimer: bullpens have a very high turnover rate and the club’s relief corps will look very different 12 weeks from now, nevermind 12 months.

The Yankees do have some nice relief depth scheduled to open the season in Triple-A, guys we figure to see next year at some point. Right-hander David Herndon, who spent the last few seasons with the Phillies, signed a minor league contract and is due to return from Tommy John surgery at midseason. Right-hander Chase Whitley (3.25 ERA and 3.70 FIP) threw 80.1 innings in Triple-A this past season and figures to be among the first called up whenever an arm is needed. Adam Warren will start the year in the Triple-A rotation but is likely to wind up in the bullpen long-term. The same is probably true for Dellin Betances as well. Left-hander and 2011 Rule 5 Draft pick Cesar Cabral will get a long look in Spring Training next year and could carve out a role with the team.

A little further down is right-hander Mark Montgomery, the team’s very best relief prospect. He’s a strikeout machine (career 14.6 K/9 and 40.0 K%) who will open the year in Double-A and earn a promotion before long. Left-hander Francisco Rondon was added to the 40-man roster after the season, so the team obviously thinks he can help them sooner rather than later. Non-40-man right-hander Graham Stoneburner could work his way into the mix as well. Right-handers Branden Pinder and Tommy Kahnle will start the year in Double-A with a chance to pitch there way into big league consideration down the line. Danny Burawa is coming off a lost season (rib injury) and the team liked him enough to invite him to big league camp this past year.

Prospects, especially bullpen prospects, have a high rate of attrition. Not all of these guys are going to work out, and in fact I’d be thrilled if three of them turned into legitimate big league options for New York. Some will be traded, some will get hurt, some will stink for no apparent reason. It happens. The Yankees do have plenty of inventory though, which is pretty much the only thing the team can control. They’ve also been aggressive with scrap heap pickups in recent years, plucking guys off waivers or signing them to minor league contracts, and that doesn’t figure to change. Outside of Rivera and Rafael Soriano, the club has had fielding a cheap and effective bullpen during the Joe Girardi era.

Despite that, I wouldn’t expect the Yankees to replace Mo, Joba, Logan, and Aardsma with only prospects or scrap heap pickups next year. If things play out like that and there are four bullpen holes to be filled, you can bet they’ll venture out into the free agent market for an arm or two. Here’s the list of free agents for next winter, and right now guys like Grant Balfour, Matt Belisle, and Eric O’Flaherty jump out as potential targets. Again, a whole lot can and will change before next offseason rolls around. I’m just looking ahead and thinking out loud here.

The rotation and lineup holes are going to draw a lot of attention (and posts) heading into 2014 given the plan to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold, but we shouldn’t forget about the bullpen. The Yankees could have a lot of holes to fill beyond the right-center field wall as well, though the difference is that their internal relief solutions are far better (and more plentiful) than their in-house rotation and position player options right now. Given the inherent volatility of relievers, having depth and plenty of options to sort through is the best and most cost effective way to build a bullpen unit. The same can’t be said for starters and position players.

Prospect Profile: Rafael DePaula

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(Photo via Josh Norris)

Rafael DePaula | RHP

Background
Hailing from La Victoria, Dominican Republic, the 21-year-old right-hander originally presented himself to teams as Rafael DePaula Figueroa with an April 1st, 1992 birthday in 2008. He didn’t garner much attention as a prospect that summer, but his velocity spiked later in the year and he was in line for a seven-figure bonus. MLB suspended him for one year in January 2009 for problems with his documentation.

Following the suspension, DePaula came forward with a new name (Jose Rafael DePaula) and new date of birth (March 24th, 1991). MLB approved his free agency, and he eventually agreed to a contract worth $500k with the Yankees in November 2010. It took 16 months for the U.S. Consulate to approve his visa. DePaula’s visa was finally approved this past March, and his contract became official when he passed a physical a few days later. In the meantime, he worked out at the team’s complex in the Dominican Republic but could not pitch in official games.

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Feinsand: Dodgers shopping Andre Ethier

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Via Mark Feinsand: The Dodgers are shopping nominal outfielder and left-handed hitter Andre Ethier, echoing what we heard back in October. Ken Rosenthal says two AL teams have already inquired (Mariners? Rangers?), but Los Angeles has “zero interest” in moving him. Standard protocol.

Ethier, 30, has consistently produced in the 120-135 wRC+ range over the last five or six years, with most of that damage coming against righties. His 71 wRC+against southpaws over the last five seasons is one of the worst marks in baseball. Either is also a poor defender in the outfield and is usually good for a DL stint or two during the season as well. He’s also signed for $85M (!) over the next five years, which is insanity. The Dodgers would have to eat an awful lot of that $85M for a deal to make sense for the Yankees, 2014 payroll plan or not.