River Avenue Blues

Thoughts following the Kevin Youkilis deal

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(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Yankees plugged their third base hole last night, agreeing to sign Kevin Youkilis to a one-year contract worth $12M. As I wrote yesterday, every win added to the team’s ledger this offseason will have a big impact on their division title chances next season given how tightly packed the AL East is at the moment. As soon as Alex Rodriguez’s new hip injury was announced, a deal with the former Red Sox infielder seemed inevitable.

1. I can’t say I’m all that enthusiastic about the signing. I would have preferred Mark Reynolds, but the Yankees are apparently allergic to players who have yet to experience their 30th birthday. Reynolds is an awful defensive player but he’s a better hitter than Youkilis, especially in terms of hitting right-handers, drawing walks, and hitting for power. He’s also a much better bet to actually stay on the field. My master third base plan was a defensive platoon with Reynolds (fly ball pitchers) and Eric Chavez (ground ball guys), but that was never going to happen. Anyway, the Yankees do deserve the benefit of the doubt here given their recent track record with veterans on one-year contracts. Watch Youkilis go .280/.400/.475 next season.

2. One thing about the Youkilis signing I do like is his ability to work the count and really grind out an at-bat. That’s been a Yankees trademark for the last two decades or so, but I thought the team got away from that a bit last season. A big part of that was the long-term injury to Brett Gardner and medium-term injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, but the Yankees are also losing noted count-workers Russell Martin and Nick Swisher this offseason. Youkilis will replace some (but not all) of those tough at-bats and they are the key to the kingdom. There is no argument to be made (traditional or sabermetric) against working the count and forcing the pitcher to throw more pitches than he wants to.

(Kevin C. Cox/Getty)

3. This has no direct tie-in to the Yankees, but man, what a deal for the Indians last night. They turned one year of Shin-Soo Choo, an up-and-down utility infielder (Jason Donald), a LOOGY (Tony Sipp), and a non-prospect (Lars Anderson) into a Trevor Bauer, a top ten overall prospect coming into the season. They also received lefty-mashing outfielder and personal fave Drew Stubbs as well as two relievers (Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw) on top of that. The Diamondbacks had clearly soured on Bauer for whatever reason, but he definitely has ace potential and the Indians deserve credit for capitalizing. They haven’t made many good moves lately, but they deserve major props for this one. I wonder if they’d be willing to flip Stubbs to the Yankees? He’s hit lefties better than Scott Hairston the last few years and contributes substantially more on the bases and in the field.

4. By signing all these one-year contracts, the Yankees are putting all their eggs in next winter’s free agent basket. They’re going to need three starting pitchers, two outfielders, a catcher, maybe a third baseman, maybe a shortstop, maybe a second baseman, maybe a DH, and various relievers and bench players next offseason. Here is next year’s free agent list, which will inevitably dwindle as players sign extensions during the next ten months. Free agency is by far the most inefficient and cost ineffective way to build a team, yet the Yankees are going to have to rely on that list of players in 2014 barring any farm system surprises next summer. I wouldn’t count on any and yet I fear the Yankees are.

Yankees to sign Kevin Youkilis

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(Tasos Katopodis/Getty)

Babe Ruth, Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, Johnny Damon, and now … Kevin Youkilis. The Yankees have agreed to sign the long-time Red Sox corner infielder to a one-year contract worth $12M according to Ken Rosenthal. The offer was made to Youkilis during the Winter Meetings after the team announced Alex Rodriguez’s new left hip injury, and the Terry Francona-led Indians essentially bowed out of the race by signing Mark Reynolds. The deal is still pending a physical and a 40-man roster move will be required. The Yankees do not have to forfeit a draft pick.

Youkilis, 34 in March, hit .235/.336/.409 (102 wRC+) with 19 homers in 509 plate appearances split between the Red Sox and White Sox this past season. It was his worst full season as a big leaguer and the second straight year his production has declined. Youkilis is one year removed from a .258/.373/.459 (126 wRC+) performance though, and over the last three seasons no player in all of baseball has been more productive against left-handed pitching (174 wRC+). Check out my Scouting The Market post for more statistical minutia.

A-Rod’s injury, which will keep him out until midseason, pushed the Yankees to acquire a starting caliber third baseman. Youkilis isn’t much of a defensive player these days, but he can adequately handle the hot corner while also backing up first base. The big concern is his durability, or lack thereof. Youkilis hasn’t played in more than 125 games since 2009 and has been on the DL five times in the last four years, including multiple times for lower back problems. The Yankees will have to thoroughly check him out during the physical and they shouldn’t count on him for more than 120 games. Anything more than that is gravy.

With the third base hole plugged, the next item on the agenda appears to be a right field replacement for Nick Swisher. The Yankees are reportedly close to a new deal with Ichiro Suzuki, which would give them three left-handed hitting outfielders. Youkilis adds some much-needed right-handed thump to the lineup, but finding a right-handed complement for the outfield will still be a necessity. Scott Hairston appears to be the only suitable free agent solution, and he’ll command a multi-year contract. The Yankees are trying to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold in 2014 and have been fixated on one-year contracts this winter. Landing Youkilis without committing multiple years is a win for New York.

Not So Baseless Speculation Update: Asdrubal Cabrera

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During the Winter Meetings last week, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer reported the Indians had the framework of an Asdrubal Cabrera trade in place with an unknown team before things fell apart. They would have received an big leaguer pitcher and two prospects for their shortstop, who would have been moved to a new position by his new team. I connected the dots and speculated that the Yankees may have been that unknown team give their needs and surpluses.

In an update today, Hoynes reports that no, it wasn’t the Yankees. It was the Phillies. They offered the Tribe right-hander Vance Worley and two prospects before backing out of the deal when the Indians asked for a fourth player. Philadelphia has since traded Worley to the Twins for Ben Revere and would have used Cabrera at third base in deference to Jimmy Rollins. The Yankees, meanwhile, seem likely to fill their various roster holes through free agency (on one-year contracts) rather than with trades.

Tuesday Night Open Thread

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Here is tonight’s open thread. The Knicks and Nets are playing (each other!), but otherwise you’re on your own for entertainment. Enjoy.

Andruw Jones to sign with team in Japan

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According to a Nikkan Sports report passed along by NPB Tracker, Andruw Jones is set to sign a one-year contract worth approximately $3.5M with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. The team has since confirmed the agreement.

Jones, 35, had a strong first half but a miserable second half with the Yankees this season, finishing with a .197/.294/.408 (89 wRC+) batting line overall. He blamed the poor finish on a finger injury. Jones has pounded left-handed pitching in recent years (123 wRC+ since 2010) and I’m surprised he didn’t generate more interest among MLB teams. I’m sure more than a few clubs would have brought him to camp on a minor league contract, but I guess Andruw wanted the guaranteed deal. He’s arguably the most high-profile big leaguer to ever leave MLB for Japan.

A look at the Yanks’ outfield defense from ’03-’12

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Two weeks ago I looked at the Yankees’ infield defense over the last decade using a real simple BABIP-based analysis. The club was a well-below-average defensive team against ground balls in six of the last ten years, including each of the last three years and four of the last five. With an aging Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter on the left side of the infield, the poor infield defense wasn’t a surprise.

Today I’m going to shift to the outfield and look at how the Yankees have done when it comes to converting fly balls into outs. Not counting infield pop-ups because they’re in their own little analytical world, fly balls turn into outs far more often than ground balls and line drives. It’s worth noting that available batted ball data, which reliably dates back to 2003, is not perfect. Baseball Info. Solutions records the data with human stringers who watch each game and classify each batted ball. Ground balls are pretty straight forward, but one person’s fly ball is another’s line drive. There is some scorer bias involved. We’re going to stick to regular old fly balls today. Here’s the data, and apologies in advance for the cluttered table…

#FB NYY BABIP AL BABIP xOuts aOuts dOuts Primary Outfield
2012 1,339 0.133 0.128 1,168 1,161 -7 Ibanez, Grandy, Swisher
2011 1,414 0.124 0.137 1,220 1,239 19 Gardner, Grandy, Swisher
2010 1,456 0.118 0.139 1,254 1,284 30 Gardner, Grandy, Swisher
2009 1,418 0.118 0.136 1,225 1,251 26 Damon, Melky, Swisher
2008 1,358 0.137 0.138 1,171 1,172 1 Damon, Melky, Abreu
2007 1,542 0.130 0.137 1,331 1,342 11 Matsui, Melky, Abreu
2006 1,591 0.140 0.141 1,367 1,368 1 Melky, Damon, Abreu
2005 1,499 0.154 0.133 1,300 1,268 -32 Matsui, Bernie, Sheff
2004 1,619 0.153 0.133 1,404 1,371 -33 Matsui, Bernie, Sheff
2003 1,559 0.150 0.128 1,359 1,325 -34 Matsui, Bernie, Mondesi

xOuts: Expected number of outs based on the league BABIP.
aOuts: Actual number of outs recorded.
dOuts: The difference between actual and expected outs, so aOuts – xOuts.

Just to be clear, homeruns are not counted in the fly ball total because they aren’t a ball in play. A ball isn’t in play if the defender doesn’t have a chance to catch it, which they can’t do when it sails over the fence.

As you probably remember, the Yankees had some miserable defensive teams in early-to-mid-aughts. The Hideki Matsui and Bernie Williams-anchored outfields from 2003-2005 were good for 30+ fewer outs converted than the league average, which is an enormous number. Adding Melky Cabrera and (to a lesser extent) Johnny Damon to the mix improved things greatly in 2006, though the Yankees were still league-average. Bobby Abreu was a defensive nightmare who prevented the unit from being above-average.

The 2009 season is when things really improved. Abreu’s wall-fearing ways were replaced by Nick Swisher, who is a solid defender and far better than his predecessor. Brett Gardner also started to earn more playing time. The 2009-2011 outfields were well-above-average as the Matsuis and Damons and Abreus were replaced, though the 2012 defense took a hit when Raul Ibanez handled left field in the wake of Gardner’s injury. The Yankees have boasted an average or better outfield defense (with regards to fly balls) in six of the last seven years, and in several of those seasons they were much better than the league average.

As I mentioned two weeks ago, ground balls are relatively harmless. They usually go for singles when they sneak through the infield and that’s the end of it. Fly balls, even the ones that don’t go over the fence for homers, are much more dangerous. Misplayed fly balls often turn into extra-base hits, which can be a nightmare for the pitcher. It’s one thing to have a man on first after a ground ball finds a hole, but it’s another when a fly ball dunks in and a man is instantly on second or third. The Yankees have done an excellent job of turning their outfield ranks over in recent years while improving the fly ball catching ability without sacrificing offense.

The Yankees and the importance of marginal wins

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(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Yankees have won at least 95 games in each of the past four seasons, but as of right now it’s hard to see them winning that many games again in 2013. They don’t have a starting catcher, a starting right fielder, a starting third baseman, a DH, or a bench. There’s still more than two months of offseason left to address those needs, but as of right now the Yankees look like an 85-win team. In fact, SG’s most recent CAIRO projections have New York winning 85 games in 2013, good enough for third place in the AL East but not a playoff spot.

So far this offseason both the Red Sox and Blue Jays have improved their teams quite a bit while the Rays have taken a step back (by trading James Shields) and the Orioles have done absolutely nothing other than cut ties Mark Reynolds. Isn’t that weird? That a surprise, upstart team like the Orioles has done nothing to improve in an effort to make another run? Anyway, the AL East again figures to be a very tight race — SG’s projections have four of the five teams winning 84-86 games — next year and therefore the value of every win added this offseason means that much more.

That’s the concept of marginal wins. With four of the five AL East teams currently projected to win between 84-86 games, the team that adds say, three wins through a free agent signing (Kevin Youkilis?) will improve their chances that much more. Furthermore, a 75-win team adding a three-win player doesn’t have the same impact as an 85-win team adding a three-win player because only one of those teams is realistically improving their shot at a playoff berth. A playoff berth brings playoff revenue and all sorts of neat stuff. Grabbing those three (an arbitrary number I pulled out of the air to use as an example) wins is a significant move in the AL East right now.

The new playoff system has shifted the marginal win spectrum a bit. Going from those 85 wins to 88 wins improved your chances of getting a wildcard spot, and under the old rules a wildcard team had as much of a chance as the three division winners. Now it’s so much more important to win the division in an effort to avoid that one-game, winner-take-all wildcard scenario (which might not even be a revenue-generating home game), and 88 wins won’t be enough for the AL East crown. It’s going to take something like 93-96 wins, maybe more. Going from 85 to 88 helps a bit, but making a series of moves to go from 85 to 93 wins would help a lot more.

Without doing an in-depth and literal WAR analysis, the losses of Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, and Alex Rodriguez will cost the Yankees something like seven games in the standings assuming replacement level replacements. Figure four for Swisher and two each for Martin and Rodriguez. They’ll get some of those wins back by replacing 2012’s left field conglomerate with Brett Gardner and some more by replacing Freddy Garcia with Andy Pettitte. Derek Jeter is unlikely to replicate his 2012 production though, so that’s another hit. Replacing those seven wins won’t be easy, especially since there really isn’t a way to replace Martin. Maybe Youkilis and Ichiro Suzuki sign and each put up a surprising three-win season, but they Yankees would still need more to break their way to make up for the production they’re losing.

The Orioles were a surprise contender this year and even if they take a step back without the benefit of a historically good record in one-run games, the Blue Jays should step in to take their spot among AL East contenders. The Rays are always tough, with or without Shields, and the Red Sox will be better than they showed last year. The division race will again be very tight next season and grabbing those marginal wins this offseason, even by overpaying for them, greatly improves each team’s chances to win the AL East. The Yankees are actually in a position to add a number of wins to their current roster given the opportunity to upgrade in multiple positions, which isn’t something you can’t really say about the other four teams in the division.