Mailbag: Price, Bonifacio, Plouffe, Gumbs
Got four post-Winter Meetings questions for you today. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything throughout the week.
Daniel asks: I know you guys always refer to David Price as “Future Yankee David Price.” But I’m not exactly sure why. When is his contract up and what are the chances we could actually pull off a deal?
The Future Yankee David Price thing is mostly a joke built around the idea that he’s an ace-caliber left-handed pitcher on a small market team who they won’t be able to sign long-term. The kind of guy we tend to expect the Yankees to swoop in and sign when he’s a free agent. Plus I like to poke some fun at some Rays fans friends of mine.
Price, who just turned 27 in August, is going to make massive money through arbitration with his credentials. Even before he was named the Cy Young Award winner, MLBTR projected him to earn $9.5M through arbitration this winter, which would be a new record for a second time eligible pitcher. He’s also a Super Two, meaning he still has two more years of arbitration left ahead of him. He could (and should as long as he doesn’t get hurt) be earning upwards of $20M+ by 2015, before he even hits free agency. The Rays figure to trade him at some point, but I highly doubt they would trade him within the division. The Yankees will have to wait three more years until he’s a free agent.
Richard asks: If the Yankees were able to initially smoke-and-mirror their way to something approaching contention with cheap pickups and players from the minors, which teams would be out of the running in mid-season (assuming the Yankees aren’t) and which players better suited to the Yankees’ needs might become available?
This isn’t the easiest question to answer because there is so much offseason left, but I think the most obvious candidates are the Cubs, Twins, Astros, Marlins, and Rockies. The Indians, Pirates, Mariners, and Padres are the next tier since you can kinda see sneaking into contention if things breaks right. The Twins have Josh Willingham and Jamey Carroll to offer while the Cubs have David DeJesus and the pricey Alfonso Soriano, but that’s really it. Maybe Ramon Hernandez of the Rockies stays healthy and becomes available. The Astros have nothing and the Yankees don’t really have the pieces to land a Dexter Fowler type. Maybe they will at midseason.
Zac asks: Would Trevor Plouffe make sense as a 3B option for the Yankees, and would the Twins consider trading him? Also, seeing that Emilio Bonifacio is potentially available, would he be an option?
I’ll say yes and no for Bonifacio. Yes he would be an option given his ability to play all over the infield and dabble in the outfield, but no I don’t think he’s an option because the Blue Jays hate trading within the division. GM Alex Anthopoulos has said so publicly many times.
As for Plouffe, I assume the Twins are open to dealing anyone following the Denard Span and Ben Revere trades. The 26-year-old hit .235/.301/.455 (106 wRC+) with 24 homers in 465 plate appearances for Minnesota this year while spending most of his time at third base. He also dabbled at second base and in right field. Plouffe is a right-handed hitter who does almost all of his damage, especially in the power department, against lefties. He wasn’t a big prospect and he really doesn’t offer much except power, though he is under team control for five more years (and will be a Super Two). Does Ivan Nova in a one-for-one trade work? I feel like that’s too much given the fact that a starting pitcher is far more valuable than a platoon bat.
Frank asks: When Angelo Gumbs came out of prep school he was touted as a CF/SS prospect with decent tools. Since the Yanks really don’t have a SS prospect that’s highly rated, wouldn’t it benefit the Yanks to try him at short again?
Before we start, here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Gumbs’ defense in their recent top ten Yankees prospects list…
Gumbs has made significant growth defensively and is beginning to take advantage of his plus arm and range. He still has some stiffness and hardness to his hands, but as his footwork improves with repetition, he should be a solid defender at second base.
If Gumbs, 20, truly has “plus arm and range” at second base, I think it’s worth a shot to try him back at shortstop since the whole Cito Culver thing just isn’t happening. That’s very easy to say from here, especially since my knowledge of Gumbs’ defense doesn’t extend far beyond those two sentences above, but the Yankees should look to maximize his value and shortstop is more valuable than second base. The team has some solid second base prospects in David Adams and to a lesser extent Corban Joseph, but that shouldn’t really be a factor in moving him. If Gumbs can play the more premium position, they should try it.
Open Thread: Done in Nashville
I can’t say the Gaylord Opryland is the best Winter Meetings venue I’ve been to (80 price-gouging tool), but it’s definitely the biggest. I’m on my way back home after four pretty eventful for the Yankees, but not eventful in a good way. Alex Rodriguez didn’t even wait until the New Year to suffer his latest debilitating injury and apparently Brian Cashman can’t even make a one-year offer to Eric Chavez without first running it up the ladder. Just a very weird Winter Meetings all around.
Anyway, here is your open thread for the evening. The NFL game is the Broncos at the Raiders, plus the Knicks are playing the heat. Talk about those games or anything else you like right here.
Astros claim Mickey Storey off waivers from Yankees
The Astros have claimed right-hander Mickey Storey off waivers from the Yankees, the team announced. The Yankees had originally claimed the right-handed reliever off waivers from the ‘Stros last month, so I hope he hasn’t sold his place in Houston yet. Storey was designated for assignment last week to clear a 40-man roster spot for Mariano Rivera after he re-signed with the club.
The Four Corners of Third Base Hell
The loss of Alex Rodriguez to a left hip injury has turned a needy yet straight-forward offseason into a chaotic mess that has left the Yankees scrambling for solutions at four everyday positions. We already knew they needed a right fielder, a catcher, and a DH, but adding a third baseman on top of it while trying to avoid spending precious 2014 dollars could prove to be impossible. The way I see it, the Yankees are going to wind up plugging their third base hole in one of four ways. Let’s break each of ’em down.
The Trade Market
Trading for help on the left side of the infield is tough these days, especially since the Padres have said they will not move Chase Headley following his monster year. Even if they were open to it, I don’t think the Yankees have the pieces to acquire him unless San Diego is open to taking a bunch of Single-A outfielders. We do know this much: teams have been calling Brian Cashman in an attempt to take advantage of the team’s situation following A-Rod’s injury.
“I’ve had a few of maybe the names I wouldn’t have thought of – lesser names that I wouldn’t have an interest in – volunteer their services for that position,” said Cashman on Tuesday. “I’ve had some people suggest, ‘Hey, my guy who plays second base, he can swing over to play third.’ That type if stuff. I don’t have an interest in stuff like that … I did have one (ridiculous trade offer), which I assume has everything to do with (A-Rod’s injury). I’m no longer talking to that club.”
Potentially available trade targets could be guys like Chris Johnson (now that Eric Chavez signed with the Diamondbacks), Jamey Carroll, Chris Nelson with the Rockies, and I suppose Juan Francisco with the Braves. All flawed in their own way, but they are guys who could help weather the storm early next season without costing an arm and a leg to acquire. They can’t all be Mike Olt.
Mark Reynolds & Kevin Youkilis
Of the remaining free agent third base options, these two right-handed hitters stand out as the best. They both have their strengths and weaknesses — I recently wrote a Scouting The Market post for both players (Reynolds, Youkilis), so I’ll just refer you back to them for the specifics — and reports indicate that both are willing to take a one-year contract. That’s pretty important to the Yankees these days. If they’re willing to spend premium dollars for a solution at the hot corner, one of these two is their guy.
The Scrap Heap
The free agent third base market is funny. There was no true top tier this offseason, no Adrian Beltre or Aramis Ramirez types, so Reynolds and Youkilis are tier one. The guys who usually make up tiers three and four are tier two this winter by default. It’s pretty grim. I’m talking about guys like Jack Hannahan (brilliant defender, can’t hit), Alex Gonzalez (coming off knee surgery), Scott Rolen (probably going to retire), Placido Polanco (bad back), Casey McGehee (been there, done that), and Chone Figgins (lolnope). The crop of minor league free agent third basemen (Josh Bell? Ruben Gotay? Andy LaRoche?) isn’t all that inspiring either.
Internal Options
The Yankees do not have a high-end, or even just a solid third base prospect on the cusp of the big leagues. David Adams most closely qualifies as one of those and he has played a whopping 37 games at the hot corner in his career. Corban Joseph has played 43 career games at third but he’s nothing more than an emergency option at the position because he doesn’t have the arm for it. Eduardo Nunez has the tools — arm strength and first-step quickness — for third base but just can’t seem to do anything right defensively. With the Yankees saying they want to keep him at shortstop, it appears as though he’s a last resort option at third.
I do wonder if the combination of A-Rod’s continued breakdown and Dante Bichette Jr.’s miserable season will make the Yankees consider moving Tyler Austin back to third base. He was drafted as a catcher and moved to third immediately as a pro, but this season the team shifted him to right field in part due to the presence of Bichette at the same level. Austin has the bat for any position and if he can handle the hot corner defensively, it’s something they should seriously consider. At the same time, there’s no much going right with Austin that you don’t want to screw it up by having him change positions yet again.
If the Yankees were to go with an internal option, Adams is probably the team’s best hope for a league average (or even just slightly below) performance next season. I’m not very confident he could skip over Triple-A and do it, but I guess stranger things have happened. And who knows, maybe Adams surprises and hits well enough that he makes the team think twice before dropping nine-figures on Robinson Cano after the season. His nature position is second base, you know. At the very least, I expect the Yankees to import some veteran competition for the kids if they’re unable to sign Reynolds or Youkilis and can’t swing a trade. At least make Adams or Nunez or whoever earn it in camp.
Barbarisi: Cashman lacked authority to make offers at Winter Meetings
Via Dan Barbarisi: Team officials confirmed Brian Cashman came to the Winter Meetings this week without the authorization to make offers to free agents. The GM had to go to ownership and plead his case for the Kevin Youkilis offer and I assume the Nate Schierholtz offer as well.
One official downplayed the seriousness of the situation, saying most GMs have to approach ownership before handing out offers. Another confirmed that this is, however, a change of pace for the Yankees. Cashman had more authority in the past, so this jibes with the earlier report of his apparent frustration. Why did ownership scale back the GMs authority? Your guess is as good as mine.
Scouting The Free Agent Market: Kevin Youkilis
The Yankees have imported a lot of former Red Sox players through the years, including a bunch of guys were on the decline and in the twilight of their careers. Roger Clemens, Johnny Damon, and Wade Boggs jump to mind and that’s just during my lifetime. All three helped New York to a World Championship and proved they had more in the tank than Boston seemed to believe.
Thanks to Alex Rodriguez’s latest hip surgery, the Yankees now have their eyes on another former Red Sox player, corner infielder Kevin Youkilis. Brian Cashman confirmed meeting with the 33-year-old’s representatives during the Winter Meetings earlier this week, and earlier this morning we learned the team offered him a one-year deal worth $12M. The Indians are also said to be in the mix, and the Terry Francona factor should not be overlooked. I’m sure a number of other unknown clubs are as well. With the Yankees in rather desperate need of third base help, let’s see what Youkilis has to offer.
The Pros
- Youkilis is one year removed from a .258/.373/.459 (126 wRC+) performance with the bat. He punished left-handers to the tune of .275/.386/.492 (135 wRC+) this year and .323/.436/.598 (174 wRC+) over the last three seasons. No player in baseball has been more productive against southpaws since 2010.
- By know you know about the whole Greek God of Walks thing, and Youkilis has drawn a free pass in 12.1% of his plate appearances over the last three years (10.0% in 2012). He’s seen an average of 4.27 pitches per plate appearances since 2010, which is among the highest rates in baseball.
- Youkilis offers some versatility, having started 220 games at third and 116 games at first over the last three seasons. The various defensive metrics says he’s about average at both positions, down from his Gold Glove days a few years ago.
- This goes without saying, but Youkilis has plenty of experience in big games and in those brutal late-season AL East matchups. He’s played in the postseason, done the Yankees-Red Sox thing, the whole nine. The whole idea of being able to handle New York is a non-issue.
- Youkilis was not eligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded at midseason, so it will not require surrendering a draft pick to sign him.
The Cons
- Although he destroys lefties, Youkilis hit just .220/.316/.377 (89 wRC+) against righties this year and .242/.346/.424 (109 wRC+) over the last three years. Just look at his year-to-year graphs page and you’ll see that he’s steadily declining in every significant offensive category. Batting average, walk rate, strikeout rate, power numbers, everything is going in the wrong direction. His ground ball rate has been higher than his fly ball rate in recent years, which is a classic symptom is an aging hitter losing bat speed.
- Youkilis isn’t exactly an iron man, and in fact he’s played in fewer games over the last three seasons (344) than A-Rod (358). He’s been on the DL five times in the last four years, including a lengthy stint for thumb surgery and multiple stints for back strains. The injuries have his defense on the decline just like his offense.
- I hate his face and his whiny act at the plate. Every called strike makes him look like Rasheed Wallace getting fouled. Not sure where they keep these stats on FanGraphs, sorry.
Youkilis didn’t become a full-time big leaguer until his age 27 season, but he’s had a very classic career arc. He started out pretty well and continuously improved until peaking at age 29-30, then he gradually started to decline at age 31. Injuries have set in as well. All the tell-tale signs for age-related decline are there, from the plate discipline numbers to the batted ball profile to the just the overall production. It’s all there and spelled out in plain English.
Now does that mean Youkilis is a bad player? Of course not, it just means he’s on the decline and he’s not what he once was. The same was true of Clemens and Boggs and Damon once upon a time as well. The question is how much does Youkilis have left in the tank, and is it worthwhile for the Yankees to pursue him as a third base fill in for A-Rod? I worry about the sharp increase in strikeout rate and increasingly poor production about righties, plus the fact that he’s a dead pull right-handed batter in a stadium unkind to those types of hitters. He could be left on the short-end of the platoon stick as soon as this year. Youkilis is an okay player whose worth is inflated by his status as a former Red Sox.