The RAB Radio Show: April 8, 2011

It’s Boston series time. Of course, we have to take a quick look back at the series that was Minnesota. But since yesterday’s game was largely unremarkable, we can get it out of the way and talk about what everyone’s talking about.

Podcast run time 22:19

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Intro music: “Die Hard” courtesy of reader Alex Kresovich. Thanks to Tyler Wilkinson for the graphic.

Note: Friend of the site Alex Kresovich (who produced podcast the intro music) has a beat in the running for the NBA2K12 soundtrack. They’re now down to ten finalists after 11,000+ submissions, and you can vote for Alex through Facebook. All you have to do is click the link, then click “Like” for Alex Kresovich, “The Return.” He’s in 2nd and rising, so give him that boost. Apparently, you might have to refresh the ballot before his name shows up.

Mailbag: Angelini, Brackman, Insurance, CC

This week we’re going to tackle Carmen Angelini‘s future, Andrew Brackman‘s innings, contract insurance, and CC Sabathia‘s fWAR. Remember to use the Submit A Tip form in the sidebar to send in your questions.

Marc asks: Would it be insane to try Carmen Angelini on the mound? He clearly isn’t going to make it as a position player and the Yankees should exhaust all options after giving the kid a cool million.

Show off that arm, Carmen. (Photo Credit: Bill Lyons, Staten Island Advance)

I was pretty high on Angelini back in the day, but the kid just didn’t hit at all (.270 wOBA in almost 900 plate appearances in Low-A and below) and then missed the entire 2010 season after having hip surgery. He seemed like a lost cause at that point, a waste of $1M, so I was understandably surprised when he popped up in the High-A Tampa box score last night. I’m pretty sure the Yankees don’t think of him as much more than an organizational player at this point, since they bumped him up a level after a year off when he didn’t hit a lick at the lower levels. He’s just filling out a roster; guys that can legitimately play shortstop are more uncommon than I think most of us realize.

When he was drafted, the scouting report on Angelini said that he had a strong arm for a shortstop, but it wasn’t a “wow” arm. Not the kind of arm that makes you think he could pitch. That’s not to say it isn’t worth a shot, maybe he builds up arm strength with a throwing program or proves to be a control freak. Position player-to-pitcher conversions don’t work very often, but at some point it’ll given him a better chance at the success than what he’s doing now. I don’t expect it to happen anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean isn’t insane.

Dee asks: What’s the reasoning behind putting Brackman in the 5th rotation spot in the SWB rotation? Do you think it could be an indication of limiting his innings somewhat in the first half of the season so that he could provide the big league team with more innings in the later part of the season either out of the rotation or bullpen? Does Brackman have a projected innings limit this year?

Andrew Brackman threw 140.2 IP last year after throwing 106.2 IP the year before, so he should be good for 170 IP or so this year. Remember, he’s older than your typical prospect (already 25), so they could probably push the innings envelope a little more with him. That 170 number is more than enough for what they’ll (presumably) need him for this summer, which is a spot starter or reliever. All five of the guys in the Triple-A rotation are in pretty good shape when it comes to innings limits this season, so that’s not much of a concern.

I wouldn’t read much (if anything) into the order of the minor league rotations. There could be something we don’t know about in play here; maybe he got a blister and needed more time off, maybe his throwing schedule in Major League Spring Training didn’t line up exactly with the work being done in minor league camp. Remember, Brackman’s the low man on the totem pole in terms of Triple-A experience, so it could be a seniority thing. Who knows.

(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

eyerishyank asks: One thing I have always wondered about is insurance on contracts. Did Carl Pavano really cost the Yanks 40 mil or did insurance pick up a lot of that tab? Some guys I understand cannot get insurance, but can most guys? I would love to understand better how insurance mitigates risk with baseball contracts to help evaluate the “real risk” involved in some of these deals.

Insurance on baseball contracts is like insurance on everything else; the insurance company evaluates the risk and then decides whether or not to proceed and provide coverage. I have no idea if the Yankees had insurance on Pavano’s contract, but he wasn’t exactly a beacon of health before coming to New York, so it’s not safe to assume they did. Information about insurance doesn’t get reported all that often, but I’m sure it’s something teams pursue for every contract, especially pitchers. The problem is that if you don’t use it, you don’t get your money back, and if you do use it, the price in the future goes up. Those bastards.

Charlie asks: Hey guys I just thought this was kind of cool, if all goes well in CC’s next start he will have accumulated 50 WAR for his career. According to Fangraphs he is as 49.9 right now.

This was sent five days ago, before Sabathia shut out the Twins for seven innings on Tuesday. That effort was worth 0.3 fWAR, so his career total now sits at 50.2 fWAR. Players within 5.0 fWAR of CC (in either direction) include Tommy John (47.1), Don Sutton (47.8), Jimmy Key (47.9), Orel Hershiser (48.5), Dave Stieb (49.5), Ron Guidry (50.6), Tom Seaver (52.2), and Phil Niekro (52.8). Here’s the career fWAR list if you’re interested, but remember the data only goes back to 1980 or so. Sabathia’s got a whole lot of career left ahead of him, so he’s going to zoom up the list over the next few seasons.

Yankees drop Twins to end homestand

With a disappointing loss and a rain out in the rear view mirror, the Yankees needed something to make them feel better in the final game of their season opening homestand. Francisco Liriano is a tough assignment more often than not, and he lived up that reputation in the first few innings of this one. But the Yankees eventually got to him by doing something they haven’t done a whole lot of so far in 2011: they scored runs without the help of a homerun.

Biggest Hit: Andruw Jones, True Yankee™

Andruw made a nice sliding catch too. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The Yankees imported Andruw Jones for one reason: to hit lefties. He marked his territory by homering off Brian Duensing in his first plate appearance on Tuesday night, but that was a measly tack-on run in a game his team eventually lost. On Thursday though, Jones’ efforts were much more important.

The Twins jumped out to a 2-1 lead in the top of the fourth inning thanks to a trio of doubles, but Liriano started the bottom half by walking Alex Rodriguez with a series of breaking balls. A-Rod swung and missed at a 1-1 slider down-and-in, but he settled in and took the same pitch when Liriano threw it again on 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2. Robbie Cano jumped all over a first pitch fastball and grounded it through the right side to put men on first and second with none out. After Jorge Posada got caught looking at a backdoor slider for strike three, Andruw came to the dish after Joe predicted he’d go 0-for-4 in yesterday’s podcast.

Liriano was offspeed heavy all game, and he certainly was in this particular at-bat against Jones. A first pitch slider was fouled off for strike one, then a changeup dropped in at the knees for a quick strike two. Jones fouled off another slider to stay alive then took the only fastball he’d see for a ball. The fifth pitch of the encounter was a total mistake pitch, a slider that hung up in the zone and about thigh high. Andruw yanked the pitched into the left field corner to score A-Rod and set the Yankees up with men at second and third with just one out. Although it only tied the game, the double improved the Yankees chances of winning by 16.9%, the biggest WPA swing of the game.

Honorable Mention: Gardner gets some BABIP luck

It’s no secret that Brett Gardner is off to a slow start this year, as he came into this game hitting just .125/.176/.125 in 19 plate appearances. He’s definitely hit a few balls hard that found gloves, namely the extra base hit Delmon Young robbed earlier in the series. Batting ninth against the lefty, Gardner finally had things break his way for once. Two batters after Jones’ double tied the game, the Yankees’ left fielder blooped a 2-1 fastball into shallow right field for a single, driving in the team’s fourth run, the eventual game-winner. It was perfectly placed, a nice little correction for his .182 season BABIP.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

A.J. grinds it out

We’ve written more words than we care to count about how important A.J. Burnett is to the success of the 2011 Yankees, and two starts into the season, things are going okay. A.J.’s biggest jam came of the game in the second inning, when he looked to be headed for one of his patented meltdowns. Justin Morneau led the inning off with a four-pitch walk, and before you knew it, Jim Thome was ahead in the count 2-0. Russell Martin came out to the mound for a quick talk, but Burnett eventually walked Thome to put men on first and second with no outs. This was it, here comes the A.J. meltdown.

Except it didn’t come. Burnett fell behind Michael Cuddyer two balls to no strikes but retired him on a routine fly ball two pitches later. He then went after Jason Kubel with a variety of fastballs and offspeed pitches, striking him out with a curveball down in the zone. Sophomore third baseman Danny Valencia got no respect; he saw five straight fastballs clocked between 93 and 94 and eventually popped out on the infield. Credit A.J. for keeping it together and to Martin for helping him battled through it after the early inning struggles. The three outs recorded that inning were the three biggest of Burnett’ day according to WPA.

Of the 99 pitches the Yankees’ right-hander threw, 64 were fastballs, which isn’t all that unusual for Burnett. What was unusual was the dozen changeups he threw, since he’ll typically throw maybe three in a given start. Eight of the 12 were strikes, including two swings and misses, one of which was by Joe Mauer, arguably the best pure hitter on the planet. The Twins swung and missed just four times against Burnett, who struck out five, but it can only help if he starts incorporating that change more often. It’s only been two starts, but Burnett’s performance has been encouraging so far. That’s better than the alternative.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Leftovers

Unfortunate play in the seventh inning, when Nick Swisher took out second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka with a slide trying to break up the double play. It was a clean slide – you can see in the photo that Swish was close enough to touch the bag, less than an arm’s length away – but hard, and Nishioka ended up on the ground in obvious pain. He had to be helped off the field, and after the game we learned that he suffered a fractured fibula. Swisher said afterwards that he was expected him to jump, and Nishioka told him it wasn’t his fault. Ron Gardenhire declared it a clean play as well. Swisher was obviously concerned in the dugout and I’m sure he feels bad. It sucks, you don’t want to see anyone get hurt, but it happens. It’s part of the game. You have to figure Nick will get one in the ribs the next time these two teams meet. It’s only fair.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The Yankees scored their first run the old fashioned way, by manufacturing it. Gardner drew a walk  and stole second, then Jeter moved him over to third with a ground out. Swisher completed the rally with a sacrifice fly, the old school way. The offense didn’t do much outside of this run and the fourth inning rally; Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez combined to go 0-for-6 with a walk (A-Rod) and a hit-by-pitch (Tex on the right quad, he’s fine). Posada’s day was particularly awful, 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. He couldn’t figure out Liriano if he knew what was coming. Jeter’s new old swing resulted in a first inning double and an infield single.

Another day, another dry hump for David Robertson. It’s an epidemic at this point (note the D-Rob Dry Hump Counter in the sidebar). Joba Chamberlain gave up an unearned run but ultimately he, Rafael Soriano, and Mariano Rivera shut things down over the last three frames. Soriano gave up a hit to Mauer (excusable) then got three fly balls to escape the inning, two of which were long. Those are going to be a problem when the weather warms up.

That was straight up bad defense on Thome’s fourth inning double. Not by Gardner, who had the ball get by him on the carom off the wall in center, but where the hell were Jones and Swisher? They’ve got to back him up on that play, someone more mobile that Thome would have been on third and probably thinking about an inside-the-parker. Poor form, fellas.

And what the hell, why in the world are they bringing the infield in with Thome (!!!) at third base in the fourth (!!!) inning?! Good grief, sometimes you have to ignore the book and use your brain a little.

The Twins still don’t have a first inning hit this season; they’re now 0-for-18 with two walks in the first inning after Burnett sat them down in order yesterday. They still haven’t won back-to-back games in the Bronx since 2000. Sucks for them.

The Yankees did not set a new record low attendance today since 41,512 people allegedly showed up. It didn’t look like that many, so I assume they counted the season ticket holders regardless of whether or not they attended.

WPA Graph & Box Score

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs some other stuff.

Up Next

Time to head up to Fenway Park for the first time in 2011. Phil Hughes will take on John Lackey in Boston’s home opener tomorrow afternoon starting at 2pm ET. Can’t imagine the natives will be happy with the 0-6 start.

Sanchez goes deep on Opening Day

Ryan Pope, Josh Schmidt, Luis Nunez, R.J. Baker, P.J. Pilittere, Jose Ortegano, Mike Gipson, Jeremy Bleich, Alan Horne, David Adams, Grant Duff, and Warner Madrigal are all starting the season on the disabled list according to Mike Ashmore and Josh Norris. First of all, yes Pilittere is back. He signed with the Diamondbacks as a minor league free agent over the winter, but was released in Spring Training and re-signed with the Yankees a few days ago. Secondly, I assume Pope is actually hurt. The organization’s closest to the majors relief prospect (a guy on the 40-man roster, no less) isn’t someone you stick on the phantom DL. Ortegano’s probably hurt too; you don’t claim a guy off waivers and keep him on the 40-man just to stick him on the minor league DL as a place holder.

Anyway, on to the games. As per tradition, here’s the full lineups on Opening Day…

Triple-A Scranton (7-2 loss to Lehigh Valley)
Kevin Russo, 2B: 0 for 5, 3 K, 1 E (fielding) – brutal
Chris Dickerson, CF: 0 for 4, 1 BB, 1 K
Jesus Montero, C: 1 for 4, 2 K – first hit of the season was a line drive to the opposite field
Jorge Vazquez, 1B: 0 for 4, 2 K
Justin Maxwell, LF: 0 for 4, 3 K
Brandon Laird, 3B: 1 for 4, 2 K
Greg Golson, RF: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB – solid night amidst a lot of crap
Jordan Parraz, DH: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Ramiro Pena, SS: 1 for 4, 2 K – poor guy is a ninth place hitter even in the minors
David Phelps, RHP: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HB, 10-0 GB/FB – 58 of 89 pitches were strikes (65.2%) … not his best night, but at least he got all those grounders
George Kontos: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1-2 GB/FB – 16 of 20 pitches were strikes (80%) … allowed an inherited runner to score
Andy Sisco: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 11 of his 20 pitches were strikes (55%)
Amaury Sanit: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 WP, 2-0 GB/FB – 12 of 20 pitches were strikes (60%) … kinda surprised he’s still around

[Read more…]

Breaking: YES, DirecTV come to terms

As the Thursday negotiation deadline neared an end, the Yankees and DirecTV have averted a blackout. The two sides have renewed their deals. Terms have yet to be disclosed, and we’ll update this post as we hear more. Yankee fans with DirecTV will not miss Friday afternoon’s contest against the winless Red Sox.

Open Thread: A Quick Survey

Let’s cut right to chase here and be frank: we’re looking for ways to better monetize the site, and one of the best ways to do that is by improving our advertisements. Hosting costs ain’t cheap, yo. In order to do that, we need to collect some information from you guys, the readers. Please take this quick, 15-question survey to help us get a better idea of our target audience, which we can then use to hopefully get rid of those shocking meat videos in the sidebar. The survey is completely anonymous and even if it wasn’t, we’d still never distribute your information elsewhere. At least not for free anyway. Kidding, I’m kidding. I swear. Seriously, please click the link and give us a minute of your time. Thanks in advance.

Once you’ve done that, use this as your open thread for the night. The free preview of the Extra Inning package is still in effect, so there’s baseball on somewhere. The (New York) Rangers are also playing what is essentially their biggest game of the season as well, so that should be fun. Talk about whatever, go bananas.

Note: Friend of the site Alex Kresovich (who produced the intro music for our podcast) has a beat in the running for the NBA2K12 soundtrack. They’re now down to ten finalists after 11,000+ submissions, and you can vote for Alex through Facebook. All you have to do is click the link, then click “Like” for Alex Kresovich, “The Return.” That’s all. Thanks.

After five games, Jeter goes back to old mechanics

Quite a stir was made a few days ago when Derek Jeter told Ian O’Connor that he wasn’t thinking about his new stride after working on it all spring. “I just said the heck with it,” said the Cap’n. “I wasn’t going to think about it. Before you’re trying to think about where your foot is and you’re trying not to move it, and it’s just too much to think about. So today I tried not to.” Rob Neyer picked it up and presented it as if Jeter abandoned the new stride and went back to his old ways, which wasn’t entirely true. He just said he wasn’t going to think about it, not that he was giving up on it all together.

Fast forward to this morning. Buster Olney reported before this afternoon’s game that there were “indications” that Jeter has in fact given up on his new stride and gone back to his old mechanics. It wasn’t clear if Olney was reporting this as new information or if he was just piggy-backing on O’Connor’s report, but then Jeter came to the plate in the first inning against Francisco Liriano with the leg kick and stride he used for most of his career. It worked today – he went 2-for-3 (legit double into the left field corner and an infield single) with a walk – and Jeter never really seemed to be get comfortable with the changes Kevin Long tried to make, so whatever works I guess.