When Joba Chamberlain burst onto the scene in 2007, he did so with a hellish slider that got swings-and-misses more than half the time. That same slider has since regressed from outstanding to merely pretty good, still checking in at more than one run above average per 100 thrown in 2010. Lucas Apostoleris at Beyond The Box Score used some PitchFX Data to break down Joba’s slider, noting that not only did he throw it harder than ever before this season, but it also had less movement. Consequently, he left a lot more up in the strike zone, and spinning offspeed stuff that doesn’t break and is left up in the zone tends to get hit real hard. Check it out, there’s lots of neat and interesting graphs in there. Hopefully Larry Rothschild can get Joba figured out.
Slowly, slowly, the Hot Stove League is beginning to heat up…
Rangers to offer Lee five years
If the Yankees want to sign Cliff Lee, they’re going to have to make a significant commitment to him. While George A. King reported yesterday that the Yanks seem to have an easy path to landing Lee, today, he notes that the Rangers are set to offer five years to Lee. King believes the Yanks are willing to go six years for Lee at around $23 million per, and the Rangers are not expected to meet that offer.
The Rangers, says King, will try to convince Lee that he’s better off in a state that features lower taxes and is closer to home. But Lee seems to want the dollars. If it’s only about the money, the Yankees will land their guy, but I can’t be the only one nervous about paying yet another guy on the wrong side of 30 more than $20 million annually through 2016.
Yanks wary of Greinke’s Bronx desires
Yesterday afternoon, we reported on a rumor involving Zack Greinke. Supposedly, the Royals’ ace claimed he was amenable to pitching in New York despite earlier reports to the contrary. In the same King story linked above, The Post scribe notes that the Yanks are still wary of Greinke’s make-up. The Yanks, he says, “don’t buy it.” They believe he “does not want to pitch under the burning lights of the Yankees’ universe.” The Bombers are also unwilling to give up Jesus Montero, and it is believed that any package would start with the Yanks’ young stud.
Scott Downs, Type A, too costly for Bronx bullpen
With Damaso Marte out until
forever at least the All Star Break, the Yankees want to find another southpaw to complement Boone Logan. To that end, Scott Downs is an appealing target. He’s been very effective for the Blue Jays for the past six years, and lefties in 2010 were just 12 for 79 (.152) against him.
Yet, the Yankees, says Ken Davidoff, will probably not pursue him. For one, Downs will turn 35 shortly before Opening Day, and for another, he’s a Type A free agent who declined arbitration. If the Yanks sign Cliff Lee, they’d give up a second-round draft pick for Downs, and if they don’t land Lee, Downs would cost them a first-rounder in a talent-rich draft. Cashman, says Davidoff, “doesn’t want to give up the draft pick.” Giving Downs the Damaso Marte money he’ll want and having to surrender a draft pick makes this alluring free agent simply too costly.
We know that the Yankees are actively seeking a second left-handed reliever this offseason, but so far the only movement they’ve made on that front involves signing Andy Sisco and Neal Cotts to minor league contracts. They have expressed interest in Pedro Feliciano, but he’s not exactly the most desirable option. I’ll continue to dream of Randy Choate, but I’m not getting my hopes up.
We have to remember that free agency isn’t the only way to acquire players, however. It may be the most efficient given the team’s vast resources, but there are plenty of other ways of securing talent. In fact, both of the Yankees current lefty relievers (Damaso Marte and Boone Logan) were acquired via trade. In this post I want to look in another direction, the Rule 5 Draft. New York’s recent history in the Rule 5 isn’t great (Jamie Hoffman in 2010, Josh Phelps in 2007), but it’s a lot easier to hit on a relief specialist than a bench player. Let’s look at some available lefty arms, starting with a former big leaguer…
Fu-Te Ni, Tigers
You’ve probably heard of Ni, who’s been up with Detroit in each of the last two seasons. They recently outrighted him off the 40-man roster, exposing him to the Rule 5 Draft. Ni’s a traditional LOOGY, with a funky low arm slot delivery and a big old breaking ball that’s allowed him to hold lefties to a .276 wOBA in the big leagues (.357 vs. RHB). There’s really not much to break down here, he is what he is, and that’s a recently turned 28-year-old that throws left-handed and has no fewer than four years of team control left. This is the kind of player the Rule 5 Draft was made for.
Scott Diamond, Braves
Signed as an undrafted free agent back in 2007, the 24-year-old Diamond make a strong first impression in his first attempt as full season ball in 2008 by posting a 3.13 FIP in 152.2 innings. The success continued into 2009 (3.26 FIP in 131 IP), then again into 2010 (3.22 FIP in 158.2 IP). Atlanta has a strong farm system and a lot of players worth protecting, so Diamond was a 40-man roster crunch casualty and left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft.
Diamond’s repertoire is suited for battling both left-handers and right-handers. He pounds the zone with three pitches: a low-90’s fastball backed by a curveball and changeup that qualify as no worse than average. He held both lefties and righties to a ~.250 average and ~.650 OPS against in 2010, and his strikeout numbers are solid (7.27 K/9 over the last two seasons). It’s not crazy to think that a shift to relief could add a few ticks to Diamond’s fastball and improve those strikeout numbers. Some team could pop him as a starter, but relief could be his ultimate role.
Jeremy Horst, Reds
A 21st round pick back in 2007, the 6-foot-4, 220 lb. Horst was outstanding during his first full season in Cincinnati’s system (2.48 FIP in 102 innings), but he struggled the next. After a 4.57 FIP in 162 innings last season, the Reds shifted Horst to the bullpen this spring and kept him there all season. The result was a career revival, more specifically a 2.30 FIP (9.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and just two homers allowed in 72 innings across three levels. The Reds declined to add him to the 40-man roster after the season, so he’s available to any team willing to keep him on their 25-man roster for all of 2011.
Since we’re talking about a potential lefty specialist, we need to dig a little deeper, and therein lies the problem. Lefties hit .302/.342/.715 (!!!) off of him last season, righties .231/.282/.478. Why? Because he’s a changeup pitcher without much else, so there’s no weapon to consistently combat same-side batters. When Horst missed spots with his change, he’s paid dearly as those slugging percentages suggest. While it would be nice to bring in a second lefty capable of facing right-handed batters as well, the equipment isn’t there for Horst to get the job done at the major league level just yet. For shame.
* * *
I suspect the Yanks are looking for someone more established to serve as their second lefty since it’s entirely possible that Logan’s second half success was a mirage. The Rule 5 Draft might not be the avenue they want to travel, but it’s virtually harmless. The worst that could happen is that the player stinks in Spring Training and is lost on waivers at the end of March, in which case they’re out $50,000. Big whoop. If they do decide to take someone in the Rule 5 for the second straight year, they likely won’t get a chance at Diamond. He’s prime Rule 5 Draft bait and is likely to come off the board early, though Ni could still available and I’d absolutely give him a chance. Horst, eh.
The Yankees could always surprise everyone and take one of their own players, namely Wilkins Arias. The 30-year-old has done fine work (3.42 FIP) with Double-A Trenton over the last three years, but I would certainly bet against this. If they wanted to keep him, they’d have protected him. They have plenty of open 40-man spots. Filling one of those spots with a cheap, young lefty specialist next week just might be the best way to go.
While the Derek dealings are nearing a denouement, the Yankees still don’t know what the future will bring for Andy Pettitte. He hasn’t yet decided if he’s going to pitch in 2011, but the Texas Rangers set everyone into a tizzy when word leaked that they had contacted Pettitte’s people.
Today was a day full of denial for those involved. The Yankees reacted strongly to the news. Someone in the Yanks’ front office called it a “total [insert your favorite expletive here] joke.” Said the source, “Pettitte’s gonna pitch here or he’s gonna pitch nowhere,”
Later in the day, Jon Heyman chimed in as well. Relying on someone he called a “Pettitte pal,” Heyman reported that, if Pettitte returns in 2011, the “only way he doesnt go back to the Yankees is if they offer something insulting.” Clearly, the Yanks won’t offer anything insulting to Pettitte, but Pettitte has yet to say if he’ll return.
Meanwhile, Nolan Ryan himself put an end to the rumor. He said he spoke with Pettitte when the Yanks’ lefty called to wish his fellow Texan good luck in the World Series. “I asked him if he thought he was going to play in 2011 or retire,” Ryan said to The Star Telegram. “He said if he played it would be with the Yankees because he wanted to retire with the Yankees. It wasn’t like I was asking him if he wanted to come play for us.”
So now, we’re just waiting on Pettitte, and while we do, it’s worth examining what the Yanks could expect from the lefty who will be pitching his age 39 season in 2011. This past year was a frustrating one for Petitte. He was dealing before a groin injury sidelined him for two months, and by the end of the playoffs, he said his hamstring and back were barking at him. Still, his numbers were impressive. He maintained a 7.0 K/9 IP and kept his walk rate (2.9 BB/9 IP) in line with his career total. He went 11-3 and lowered his ERA to 3.28, his lowest AL mark since 2002.
Going forward, there’s no reason to expect a huge dip in performance. While Pettitte’s velocity isn’t what it was once, he, like Mike Mussina before him, has managed to make it work. He uses his breaking pitches and control more effectively, and he keeps the ball down in the zone. History too shows that lefties who are still in the game at Pettitte’s age have pitched effectively. They aren’t termed crafty southpaws for nothing.
Of the 30 seasons spun by left-handed pitchers who were at least 39 years old and made at least 20 starts, all but 10 have seen ERA+ figures top 100. Randy Johnson and Lefty Grove are the leaders, but Jamie Moyer pitched exceptionally well in Seattle at ages 39 and 40. David Wells did the same in New York in 2002. Have left arm, will travel.
Ultimately, for Pettitte, the biggest worry in 2011 will be his health. He broke down in 2010 after a long 2009 campaign, and he felt the strain of the season at the end of 2008 as well. Even though he keeps himself in very good shape, as he ages, his body isn’t as fast to heal as it once was, and he is more prone to minor strains. But if the Yanks can convince him to come back for another go of it, the team will be all the better for it.
Via Ken Rosenthal, several Yankee bigwigs met with Derek Jeter and agent Casey Close in Tampa on Tuesday. It’s unclear who actually attended on behalf of the Yanks or if any contract proposals were exchanged, but either way this the first time we’ve heard about the two sides meeting since negotiations started earlier this month. Everything else has been public bickering and whatnot. I really hope the two sides can hammer out a deal soon, simply because it’s inevitable and I think we’re all sick of hearing about this stuff already.
Update by Ben (11:40 p.m.): Apparently, the talks went well tonight. Jon Heyman talks of “new optimism,” and Hank Steinbrenner says he is “confident that Derek will remain with the Yankees, and my brother does, as well.” Heyman’s sources also suggested that the Yanks may go up to $51 million over three years with an option. Once the Giants signed Miguel Tejada and Jeter’s side realized the open market wouldn’t have much to offer, I guess that three-year, $45-million initial proposal from the Yanks suddenly seemed alluring. Still, the Bombers are going to outbid themselves for Jeter if they truly are raising their offer.
When he’s not busy chasing Cliff Lee or staring down Casey Close, Brian Cashman is a community man. He’s going to spend this upcoming weekend dressed up as an elf and rappelling down the 22-story Landmark Building as part of the Stamford Downtown Special Services District’s annual Heights and Lights event. He’ll be accompanied by local weatherman Rick Reichmuth and, of course, Santa Claus. The trio will make a practice run on Friday, then do the real thing at 4:30pm this Sunday. I assume Cash will then jump on the Steinbrenner’s G6 and head to Orlando for the Winter Meetings.
If you’re in the area and are going to the Heights and Lights events, snap some pictures and email them to us so we can post them on the site. Thanks in advance. Otherwise, here’s your open thread for the evening. The Knicks and Nets are playing each other in the Garden tonight, which is all we’ve got for Tri-State Area sports. Talk about whatever the hell you want, just be cool about it.
Here’s one from Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan that’s just designed to send Yankee fans into a tizzy: A source close to Zack Greinke says the mercurial ace would consider pitching in New York. “I wouldn’t put it past him to go to New York,” Passan’s source said. “I don’t think he’d rule out anybody. He says he likes New York. Especially because they’re winners. He wants to go to a team that wins. He’s got a list, but in the process, a lot of people have lists.”
This development essentially flies in the face of everything we’ve heard about Greinke so far. The right-hander, who has struggled with social anxiety disorder and depression, has reportedly been adverse to joining the Yankees, and his no-trade clause requires him to consent to a deal to the Bronx. Still, Passan reports that the Yanks and Royals have discussed Greinke and that the no-trade clause ” isn’t the impediment it’s been made out to be.” If Cliff Lee slips through their fingers or Andy Pettitte retires, the Yanks could very well begin to explore packaging some young talent for Greinke.