River Avenue Blues

Update: Yankees designate Ramiro Pena for assignment

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August 2nd: Apparently the Yankees designated Pena for assignment yesterday, according to the official site. That seems weird, they didn’t need to clear a 40-man roster spot for McGehee and could have easily sent Ramiro to Triple-A. Brian Cashman did confirm the move to Chad Jennings, however.

August 1st: As expected, the Yankees have sent Ramiro Pena back down to Triple-A to make room on the 25-man roster for the recently acquired Casey McGehee. Pena had one single in four plate appearances and two pinch-running appearances during his brief stint with the big league club. McGehee is in this afternoon’s lineup, playing first base and hitting seventh.

Yankees got it right with Raul

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(Al Bello/Getty Images)

Jesus Montero was going to be the Yankees’ regular, or at least part-time DH in 2012. We were pretty sure of it all offseason long … until the Yankees traded him to the Mariners for Michael Pineda. With just a month left until Spring Training opened, the Yankees were without a DH and the search was on. Names like Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Russell Branyan, Bobby Abreu, Garrett Jones, and Travis Hafner were all connected to New York at some point, either through legitimate reporting or speculation. Instead, the Yankees went in another direction.

Just days before camp opened and month after the Montero-Pineda trade, the Yankees agreed to sign then-39-year-old Raul Ibanez to be the left-handed half of the DH platoon. His performance had been in clear decline in recent years and he didn’t offer the True Yankee™-ness or name value as some of the other DH options, but it’s clear at this point the Yankees picked the right guy for the job. Ibanez has hit a respectable .243/.304/.461 (100 wRC+) in 293 plate appearances this year, seeing far more time in the field than anyone could have expected. He’s also come up with several big hits.

Meanwhile, the other free agent DH alternatives have pretty much flopped. Pena is hitting .198/.321/.364 (96 wRC+) with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 445 plate appearances for the division rival Rays. Damon signed with the Indians a month into the season and owns a .222/.281/.329 line (70 wRC+) in 224 plate appearances. The media in Cleveland is calling for him to be released so the kids can play. Matsui was released after signing with the Rays at midseason and produced a .147/.214/.221 line (18 wRC+) in 103 plate appearances. Branyan signed a minor league deal with the Yankees but has missed most of the season with back problems. Abreu has been designated for assignment twice and trade talks for Jones and Hafner were never really serious.

Ironically enough, part of the reason why the Yankees preferred Ibanez to Damon and Matsui was his ability to play the outfield. All three are terrible defenders, but Ibanez was the only one to spend significant time in the field in recent years. When Brett Gardner went down, Raul stepped right into left field and the Yankees nary missed a beat. He’s out-hit the other DH options and despite his general defensive shakiness, he’s been reliable in the field as well. The Bombers could have gone in any number of directions to fill Montero’s roster spot before the season, but they made the right call by bringing in the guy who few fans felt was the best candidate for the job.

The next great Yankee reliever

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(Kate Thornton/The New York Times)

While the Yankees’ development of starting pitchers has been considered a weak point for years, there is no doubt that the farm has produced some impressive relief arms.  In recent years, this includes Tyler Clippard (who came through the system as a starter), Mark Melancon (who struggled early this year, but was impressive last year), George Kontos (who has been impressive since being traded to the Giants) and of course David Robertson, once described by a scout as a “the baseball equivalent of a sociopathic murderbot from the future.”

Evaluating relief prospects is often a tricky proposition, and going just on minor league statistics can mislead as much as it may inform.  There are plenty of examples from the Yankee system of organizational arms who posted silly minor league numbers, but never amounted to anything in the majors. Colter Bean, Josh Schmidt, and Edwar Ramirez (one of my all-time favorite prospects) are several examples of this phenomenon.  Bean and Schmidt were sidearmers who largely got by on deception, while Ramirez was a one-trick pony, relying heavily on a changeup that is perhaps the best I have ever seen (I kid you not).  Since most relievers are failed starters, draft pedigree is not often informative in determining which prospects to follow, and who will have success in the majors.

With all these caveats in place, it’s still hard not to get excited about what Mark Montgomery has done this season.  Montgomery, the subject of a prospect profile back in November, has exceeded the loftiest expectations.  He is an 11th-rounder out of Longwood University in 2011, works in the low-90’s with his fastball and boasts one of the best sliders in the minors that is already considered a plus major league pitch.  Because of that nasty slider, Montgomery’s Twitter handle @snapdragonmonty is especially appropriate.  On the season, his first full one as a professional, Montgomery has been flat-out dominant.  Between high-A and AA, he’s put up a 1.34 ERA, with 13.8 strikeouts/9 and 3.6 walks/9.  The strikeout rate is impressive, and evidence of how he has overmatched hitters thus far, and the walk rate is not bad for a power pitcher.

Because of his strikeout dominance and rapid rise through the minor leagues, David Robertson is probably the most appropriate comparison.  On paper, the numbers are very similar.  Throughout his minor league career, Robertson posted a 1.28 ERA, 12.6 strikeouts/9, and 3.5 walks/9.  Montgomery has posted a 1.41 ERA, with 14.7 strikeouts/9 and 3.4 walks/9.  The numbers are very close, favoring Montgomery slightly on the peripherals, though it is worth noting that he has only reached AA.  However, Montgomery is on a slightly different trajectory than Robertson because he debuted at 20 in his draft year, while Robertson didn’t make his minor league debut until age 22 (the year after he was drafted, because he received an overslot bonus).

D-Rob was fast-tracked to the majors, spending less than two years in the minors before making his big league debut, where he quickly became a fixture in the Yankee bullpen.  Montgomery looks to be on a similar path, and he could be in the bigs as soon as September if the Yankees are interested in really pushing him.  With the return of Joba Chamberlain from injury, the incentive to push Montgomery to the majors may be reduced, since Joba fills a bullpen hole, and Montgomery would likely be reduced to pitching low-leverage innings on the big-league roster.  However, if the Yankees think that Montgomery could be an asset during the playoffs, I could see them swapping out Cody Eppley to give Montgomery a try.  Realistically, however, Montgomery will likely start 2013 in AAA, and if all goes well, could be knocking on the door to the bigs fairly soon.

Mike Ashmore and Josh Norris (the dynamic duo of Trenton Thunder beatwriters) have some great video of Montgomery embarrassing some AA hitters in a recent 4-strikeout outing.  I highly recommend checking them out, and thanks to Mike and Josh for all their hard work in acquiring them.  The nasty slider is definitely on display, and the Altoona hitters have no chance.  It’s pretty clear from the videos that Montgomery is not getting by on gimmicks and trickery, but rather, bona fide major league stuff.  I don’t know when Montgomery will make his Major League debut, however, if I were Brian Cashman I would have to think long and hard about giving Montgomery a taste of the majors to see if he could be an asset on the postseason roster.

The Slightly Leaky Bullpen

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(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

The Yankees put an end to the four-game losing streak with an offensive outburst yesterday, on the heels of going 13-13 in July despite a +18 run differential. Lots of close losses — seven one-run losses, three two-run losses in July — will throw a wrench into the ol’ pythag record. Bullpens play a major role in close games, and the Yankees lost a number of those one-run games because their usually reliable relief corps came up short. Just look at the Red Sox series, both Rafael Soriano and David Robertson took losses in that one.

The injury to Mariano Rivera was obviously significant, but Soriano has stepped in and done a marvelous job as his ninth inning replacement. The problem is that the middle relief weakens because he’s no longer throwing the seventh inning. Cory Wade’s implosion left those key middle innings in the hands of a number of specialists, namely Cody Eppley, Clay Rapada, and Boone Logan. Those guys did a fine job for a while, but all of these close games have started to expose their weaknesses against batters of the opposite hand. Here’s a look at the bullpen’s month-by-month stats…

IP ERA FIP BABIP K% BB% GB% HR/FB%
April 76.1 2.00 3.28 0.267 26.4% 9.8% 47.1% 9.0%
May 67.1 3.48 3.13 0.325 23.1% 8.3% 47.2% 7.4%
June 68.0 3.97 3.63 0.286 22.0% 8.4% 38.6% 9.5%
July 65.0 3.60 3.42 0.316 24.2% 10.7% 47.5% 9.4%
Season 276.2 3.22 3.36 0.299 24.0% 9.3% 45.0% 8.8%
AL Avg 0.0 3.67 3.84 0.290 21.7% 9.2% 45.2% 10.5%

That’s a 3.68 ERA since the start of May — Mo’s last appearance was April 30th — so exactly league average as far as I’m concerned. That’s good, rock solid, but a notch below what the Yankees have gotten from their relievers in recent years. The bullpen pitched to a 3.29 ERA from 2010-2011 and a 3.59 ERA from 2008-2011, otherwise known as the four full seasons of the Joe Girardi era. This isn’t a fatal flaw kind of performance, but these guys haven’t been quite as automatic as we’ve grown accustomed too of late.

Joba Chamberlain officially returned to the bullpen two days ago, adding the kind of non-matchup reliever that I felt was an essential addition over the last few weeks. He showed his rust yesterday and therein lies the problem — we really have no idea what Joba will give the team going forward. It could be two months of utter dominance, it could be two months of replacement level production, it could be two months of something in the middle. Those were two very serious injuries — Tommy John guys tend to struggle with command during the first six or eight months after surgery anyway — and we shouldn’t downplay their potential impact. It’s going to take a few weeks before we get an accurate measure of his effectiveness.

The Yankees have been getting plenty of length out of their starters recently, with just eighth starts of fewer than six innings in the last 27 games. That dates back to the Adam Warren disaster. Only once during that stretch did a starter fail to complete at least five innings, and that was the David Phelps spot start in St. Pete (4.2 IP). The best way to improve the performance of the bullpen is to get even more length out of the starters so the specialists aren’t exposed. The offense blowing a few games open like yesterday wouldn’t hurt either. Girardi has done a really good job of mixing and matching with his middle guys, but the more relievers you use in a game, the more likely you are to run into someone having an off-night. That’s why all the specialists and matchup work can be dangerous.

Tyler Austin: A scouting report and the future

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(Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com)

This has been a down year for the farm system for the most part, though the most notable exception is the emergence of Tyler Austin from interesting guy to high-end prospect. The Yankees signed the 20-year-old for $135k as their 13th round pick back in 2010, and he’s rewarded them by hitting .322/.404/.583 with 15 homers and 18 steals (in 20 tries) across two levels of Single-A this year. Both Baseball America and Keith Law recently ranked him as one of the 50 best prospects in the game.

The numbers certainly pass the sniff test and at 6-foot-2 and 200 lbs., Austin passes the eye test as well. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, a former Yankees intern, scouted him during a recent High-A Tampa game and published the write-up yesterday. It’s an excellent and lengthy Insider-only read, so I can’t give away too much. Here are the most relevant points…

He’s a below-average runner with choppy steps and some thickness to a 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame. Austin’s arm is slightly above-average, so he can play right field, and he’s quick enough to stay there for now …  There is a risk for barring his lead arm and/or a loopy path in how he moves his hands, but Austin has good enough feel for his swing that this hasn’t been a problem in games I’ve seen … Austin’s strength, bat speed and hips combine to create above-average to plus raw power that is most natural to the opposite gap, an encouraging sign for power showing up in games and translating at higher levels … The separator for Austin is his advanced plan, feel and plate coverage that is fueled by his quick hands and allows him to tap into his raw power in games. Austin has a tough profile and little margin for error, but he’s got a good chance to reach his ceiling of .275-.280 average with 25 homers.

Mike Newman passed along a similar report when he caught Austin a few weeks ago, saying the stolen base totals — 36-for-38 in steal attempts for his career — are not indicative of his actual speed and athleticism, and that the swing can get a little flat. Both guys agree that the (hard to find) right-handed pop and opposite field stroke are for real though, ditto the advanced approach that allows Austin to wait for his pitch and take ball four (11.3% walk rate) if he doesn’t get anything to hit.

The long-term concern here is position. Austin was drafted as a catcher and moved to third base almost immediately. He shifted to right field this season in part due to a lack of hot corner quickness, but also because of the presence of Dante Bichette Jr., last year’s first rounder. McDaniel notes that Austin may have to move to first base long-term, though hopefully he can stave off that fate for a few years ago. Either way, Austin’s carrying tool is his bat and if ever reaches the big leagues, it’ll be because he hit his way there. Don’t count on defensive value.

Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has a bit of a spotty track record when it comes to first round/top picks, but he and his scouting staff just kill it in the late rounds, particularly on the mound. They consistently find power arms to feed the bullpen pipeline and dangle in trades, but Austin at least has the potential to be their best late-round find yet as an impact hitter from the right side of the plate. The Yankees are going to need to add some cheap bats to the lineup in the coming years, and Austin could have himself on the big league radar by 2014 if he stays healthy and progresses as hoped.

Just FYI, McDaniel also commented on outfielders Slade Heathcott (“shows big tools with above-average left-handed power and above-average speed that makes for a potentially enticing center-field package”) and Ramon Flores (“the tools are short for big league impact”). Last week he covered Mason Williams and some of those bullpen arms.

Yankees batter Orioles to end four-game slide

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The Orioles had a chance to sweep the Yankees in the Bronx for the first time since 1986, but the Bombers avoided that fate and put an end to the four-game losing streak with a thorough beatdown of Baltimore on Wednesday afternoon.

(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Early Runs

The Yankees scored five runs in the first inning on Tuesday, but the bats went into hibernation after that while Ivan Nova coughed it all up. Wednesday’s effort was more spread out, with two runs in the first, two in the second, and seven in the third. The Yankees went a combined 7-for-13 with runners in scoring position, including a grand slam by Robinson Cano to cap off that seven-run third inning. Six different players had run-scoring plate appearances during those first three innings. It was an all-out assault against Zach Britton. Poor kid threw 80 pitches to get eight outs.

Luck or Maturity?

Phil Hughes wasn’t overly dominant — nine hits and two walks — in his six innings of one-run ball, but it was an effective outing nonetheless. The Orioles put the leadoff man on-base in the fourth (first two hitters reached), fifth (first two hitters reached again), and sixth (just one), but they didn’t score a single run. It seems like Hughes has done that a lot this year, put the leadoff man on and pitch out of the jam. Is it luck/timing, or maturity? It’s probably a little of both, but either way it’s still good to see him pitch out of  jams that would have spiraled into multi-run innings in previous years.

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Joba Returns

After nearly 14 months on the shelf, Joba Chamberlain finally got back on a big league mound in this game. He didn’t pitch all that well, allowing a solo homer to the first batter he faced and two runs on four hits in 1.2 innings overall, but it’s still great to see him back out there. There’s obviously lots of rust to shake off — I like that he went out for that second inning of work — but he threw all four pitches in the outing and averaged 92 on the gun. The Yankees need another non-matchup reliever in a big way and they seem to be counting on Joba to be that guy.

Leftovers

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Ichiro Suzuki played his first game in left field in more than decade, making one nice leaping catch at the wall to rob an extra-base hit. He also went 1-for-5 at the plate to extend his exactly-one-hit streak to nine games, the entirety of his Yankees career. The two deep fly balls he hit in his first two at-bats might have left the park with better weather, but who knows.

Derek Jeter had three hits for the second straight day, on the heels of a .346/.375/.439 showing in June. The Cap’n doesn’t walk or hit for much power these days, but there aren’t many better at piling up a sheer volume of base hits like this. Led by Jeter, the top four hitters in the order went a combined 9-for-17 with a double (Nick Swisher) and two homers (Cano and Curtis Granderson).

Casey McGehee’s debut in pinstripes went well — he drew two walks against the lefty Britton and went 0-for-2 with a sacrifice fly and two ground ball double plays in his three trips to the plate against various right-handed relievers. That’s pretty much they’re going to get out of him. The Yankees scored double-digit runs for just the sixth time this season, and the 12 runs are the second this year most behind the 15 they scored in The Great Fenway Comeback.

Clay Rapada struck out the two lefties he faced and David Robertson recorded the last two outs of the ninth for an uneventful end to the game. The Orioles went a combined 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position, but based on how we treat the Yankees when they do stuff like that, Baltimore just sucks in those situations and we give no credit to the pitchers. So I guess that means it’s luck for Phil? Eh, whatever.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs some additional stats, and ESPN the updated standings. The lead in the division is back up to seven games in the loss column with 58 to play.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

The Yankees are off on Thursday and will welcome the Mariners to the Bronx for a three-game series starting Friday night. CC Sabathia and Kevin Millwood are scheduled to kick that one off. Check out RAB Tickets for some deals to get you in the door this weekend.

Heathcott homers in Tampa win

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Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein got together on the Baseball Today podcast this afternoon to talk about prospects who traded at the deadline. They also took some time to speak about RHP Dellin Betances and his awful season, and predictably were pretty down on him. The Betances stuff starts around the 31:00 mark, so check it out.

Meanwhile, OF Melky Mesa has been promoted to Triple-A following tonight’s roster moves.

Double-A Trenton (4-3 win over Altoona in 11 innings, walk-off style)
2B Jose Pirela & SS Addison Maruszak: both 2-4, 1 RBI, 1 K — Pirela had the walk-off sac fly
3B David Adams, CF Melky Mesa & 1B Kevin Mahoney: all 1-5 — Adams struck out twice, Melky thrice … Mahoney hit a two-run homer to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth and committed an error when he missed a catch
RF Zoilo Almonte & LF Rob Segedin: both 0-4 — Almonte got hit by a pitch, struck out three times and committed a fielding error … Segedin drew a walk and scored twice
DH Luke Murton: 2-5, 1 R, 1 2B, 3 K
C Jose Gil: 0-3, 1 HBP
RHP Mikey O’Brien: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 E (pickoff) — 61 of 100 pitches were strikes
LHP Francisco Rondon: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 2/1 GB/FB — half of his 22 pitches were strikes
RHP Mark Montgomery: 1 IP, zeroes, 4 K, 1 WP, 1/2 GB/FB — 19 of 27 pitches were strikes (70%)
RHP Jon Meloan: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 0/2 GB/FB — 17 of 29 pitches were strikes (59%)
RHP Graham Stoneburner: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 14 of 22 pitches were strikes (64%)

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