River Avenue Blues

Holding out Hope for Harper

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Come on Yankees please. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

If any of my students are reading this, please stop, lest you think your current or former English teacher is a hypocrite, as I’m about to make a claim with very little–possibly no–evidence to support it. Based on his public statements and actions, Brian Cashman intends to sign Bryce Harper to the New York Yankees.

Going by Cashman’s public statements, this doesn’t make any sense. Last week at the Winter Meetings, Cashman essentially declared the Yankees out on Harper, ostensibly thanks to their very full outfield. With spots taken up by Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clint Frazier, there’s just not room for another outfielder, even one as talented as Harper. That sentiment is true if we take Cash’s words at face value, but digging a bit deeper–not even that deep, really–might reveal this as posturing.

The Yankees and Cashman gain nothing by openly stating their desire to sign Harper. And while I question how effective negotiating through the media is in today’s age of baseball with almost every front office thinking and acting the same way, it’s not something many GMs or heads of baseball ops are going to do. Beyond that, does anyone really believe that the Yankees are going to let three of those six players stand in the way of Bryce Harper?

Gardner is a veteran leader and a ‘legacy’ player, who’s been a Yankee for life, but his days of starting probably should be numbered. On most contending teams, he’d be a backup. He and Harper are polar opposites at this point, with Gardner on the downside of his career and Harper just entering his age-based prime. Clint Frazier, despite his still massive upside and how much I want him to succeed with the Yankees, is coming off career-altering injuries and, as a relatively unproven player, should not stand in the way of one of the game’s best. As for Jacoby Ellsbury, well…he shouldn’t be a stumbling block for any player. The only question there is when, not if, the Yankees will develop the stomach to just eat his cost to get him off the team.

With regards to actions, it’s the one Cashman hasn’t taken that hints hopefully towards Harper. In the last few weeks, there has been a lot of smoke around the Yankees and trade talks for pitchers. They’ve been liked to a pair of Cleveland starters–Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer–as well as crosstown ‘rival,’ Noah Syndergaard. Presumably, third baseman Miguel Andujar would have been the centerpiece of any Yankee trade to bring high-quality pitching to the Bronx. As I write this, Andujar is still on the Yankees and none of those pitchers–or Manny Machado for that matter–are. With the caveat that anything can happen at any time, it seems the Yankees are committed to Andujar and are passing on Machado, even if Cashman’s language hasn’t been as strong in severing that connection as it has been regarding Harper.

The Yankees are, arguably, more in need of a starting outfielder like Harper than they are a starting infielder like Machado. Ideally, the Yankees would go–and should go!–for both players and let the rest sort itself out, but I’ve more or less written that idea off. Given Cashman’s words and actions, it’s still possible the Yankees will end up with Bryce Harper. He is a difference maker in every sense of the word and pairing him with the right handed power of Judge and Stanton as well as the on-base ability of Hicks would make the Yankee lineup virtually unstoppable, able to outslug their (actually pretty good) rotation’s potential woes. If the Yankees aren’t going to use their best trade piece to upgrade pitching and replace him with Machado, the most logical thing to do is sign Harper.

Gary Sanchez is One of Baseball’s Best Catchers

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That Gary, he sure is scary. (Getty)

This past week’s Winter Meetings were a dull affair. The Yankees did bring back J.A. Happ to fill out the rotation and it was reported that the team will meet with Manny Machado in New York in the coming days/weeks, but by far the most interesting Yankee rumor was their (brief) connection to Marlins’ catcher J.T. Realmuto. Originally a tool to coerce the Mets to send Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, the Marlins also tried to manufacture Yankee interest in obtaining Realmuto themselves—a rumor that was never believable because the Yankees already have one of baseball’s best catchers in Gary Sanchez.

Gary is probably the most polarizing Yankee since Alex Rodriguez hung up his cleats three years ago. Fans either love him or hate him, with little room in the middle. He is accused of laziness and complacency and Joe Girardi’s occasionally tense relationship with the Yankee backstop was rumored to be a big reason why the Yankees elected not to bring him back after the surprise success of the 2017 campaign.

Gary’s abysmal 2018 amplified criticism of his defense and hustle, particularly after he failed to appropriately hustle in Tampa Bay in July and after a futile showing in Oakland (a showing in which Luis Severino surely deserves some blame) in September. Coupled with his .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) batting line, it appears at first glance that 2018 proved Gary’s doubters right.

But the problem with narratives like these is that they often obscure the broader context. That is especially true in baseball, a provincial sport in which most fans watch only their own preferred team, over and over—magnifying flaws and frustrations at the expense of other teams’ weaknesses. In other words, it’s important to zoom out and consider the whole league to properly evaluate Gary’s production and value.

When you do so, it becomes clear that Gary Sanchez is baseball’s most powerful catcher. 32 players have at least 750 at-bats with at least 75 percent of their games behind the plate since the beginning of 2016, and Gary is 3rd overall in home runs with 71, trailing only Yasmani Grandal (73) and Salvador Perez (76), both of whom had at least 300 more plate appearances. He has the highest slugging percentage of the group at .516 and the highest OPS by a considerable margin at .849. (The next closest is Wilson Ramos with a .826 OPS.) He is 6th overall in RBI (188), 11th overall in OBP (.333) and walks (110), 13th in batting average (.252) and 14th in doubles (49). Calling Gary Sanchez anything but one of the league’s most dominant offensive catchers is simply dishonest.

It’s also worth mentioning that even his atrocious 2018 had plenty of silver linings—and wasn’t that far off from league average. His 89 wRC+ was right in line with league average production of 91 wRC+ (leaguewide, catchers hit .237/.313/.385 in 2018), and he ranked 6th in home runs with 18. In fact, Baseball Prospectus’ new offensive metric, DRC+, actually ranks Gary as an above-average catcher last year. (As Friend of RAB™ Jarrett Seidler said on Twitter the other day, his season was valued about the same as Realmuto’s career average.) There is a convincing case to be made that Gary ran into considerable bad luck with balls he hit hard last year and it’s also important to consider that he may have been hobbled by injuries, even when playing.

But most criticism of Gary is based on his futility at blocking balls, which are both obvious to fans watching and often ugly to watch. Gary leads the league in passed balls by a wide margin, and that alone is enough for some fans. But passed balls are not the only defensive responsibility of catchers—they also throw runners out, execute analytical gameplans and frame pitches. And the data and anecdotes show that in every one of those categories, Gary Sanchez excels. Coupled with his dominant offense, the runs that Gary allows on passed balls only scratch the surface of his run-production (and yes, even his run prevention).

But despite all of this, Gary will be the center of controversy again in 2019. That will be true even if he meets (or exceeds!) his current 2019 Steamer projection of .245/.322/.482 (116 wRC+), which would again rank him as one of baseball’s dominant catchers. Some players just attract controversy—though it is worth noting that there are implicit reasons why—and he is one of them. That’s not likely to change.

But as we all cheer on the Yankees next year, remember to tune out the noise around the Yankee backstop, because the data is clear: Gary Sanchez is one of baseball’s very best catchers, and the Yankees are lucky to have him.

Revisiting the MLBTR Archives: December 2013

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(Maddie Meyer/Getty)

Welcome to December. The offseason’s busiest month has arrived and that means gobs of rumors and transactions. That is every bit as true for the 2018 going on 2019 Yankees as it was the 2013 going on 2014 Yankees. In fact, this month’s edition of our MLBTR Archives series includes over 1,600 words of copied and pasted MLB Trade Rumors blurbs alone. Then we added our commentary on top of that.

Anyway, the Yankees went 85-77 in 2013 and missed the postseason. By time December 1st rolled around they’d already re-signed Derek Jeter, signed Brian McCann, and shown interest in Jhonny Peralta, Omar Infante, and Brandon Phillips as backup plans in case Robinson Cano signed elsewhere, which of course he did. December 2013 was one of the busiest months in recent Yankees history. Let’s go back in time five years.

December 2nd, 2013: Yankees Sign Brendan Ryan

3:27pm: Ryan will receive $2MM in 2014 and 2015, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Yankees hold a $2MM club option for 2016 that becomes a $1MM player option if it is declined, he adds.

Two years and a player option! What a time to be alive. The Yankees acquired Ryan in an ultra-rare September trade because Jeter got hurt and they needed someone to play shortstop the final few weeks of the 2013 season. They then re-signed Ryan to this contract to be their utility guy. It went how everyone expected. Ryan didn’t hit (37 wRC+) but he played some nifty defense from 2014-15. He of course exercised his player option for 2016 and, to shed the salary, the Yankees included him in the Adam Warren-Starlin Castro trade. The Cubs immediately released him. Ryan spent the 2016-17 seasons in Triple-A and did not play at all this past season.

December 2nd, 2013: Yankees Will Not Offer $200MM To Cano

The Yankees will not offer star free agent second baseman Robinson Cano a deal for over $200MM, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. With a current offer of seven years and $160MM already on the table, the club plans to stand on that figure and does not foresee wiggle room of greater than about $15MM, says Passan.

The Yankees’ final offer to Cano was seven years and $175M, so that maxed out that reported $15M in wiggle room on top of the $160M offer. At this point, it still felt like only a matter of time until Robbie re-signed with the Yankees. No other teams were showing serious interest yet and the Yankees had made him a monster contract offer. He was holding out for more and the Yankees were obviously willing to wait him out.

December 2nd 2013: American League Non-Tenders

GM Brian Cashman says that the Yankees will non-tender infielder Jayson Nix, tweets Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. The 31-year-old veteran appeared in 87 games for New York last season, putting up a .236/.308/.311 line in 303 plate appearances. The club will also non-tender reliever Matt Daley and infielder David Adams. New York confirmed the moves via press release.

And thus ends the Nixy era. Nix spent two years in pinstripes, hit .239/.307/.340 (78 wRC+) in 505 (!) plate appearances, and was let go after the 2013 season. He bounced from the Phillies to the Pirates to the Royals in 2014 and has been out of baseball since 2015. Also, wow were people made the Yankees non-tendered David Adams. I mean irate. He still had some prospect shine at the time but it didn’t really work out. Adams bounced around the Double-A and Triple-A levels for various organizations from 2014-16 and hasn’t played since. He rejoined the Yankees as a minor league instructor last year and this summer he managed one of their rookie Gulf Coast League teams.

December 3rd, 2013: Mariners Have Emerged As Major Players For Robinson Cano

The Mariners have emerged as a major player in the Robinson Cano sweepstakes, several sources told Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com.  With the Yankees not wanting to go to seven years or as much as $200MM, an industry source with knowledge of the negotiations termed the Yankees chances of retaining Cano at “less than 50-50.”

Haha real funny guys knock it off.

December 3rd, 2013: A’s Likely To Trade Brett Anderson Next Week

3:54pm: The Yankees are also interested in Anderson, according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (on Twitter). According to Passan, the A’s are likely to deal Anderson at next week’s Winter Meetings.

Acquiring Brett Anderson always seems like a good idea until you actually acquire Brett Anderson. Injuries limited him to 163 innings total from 2011-13, the Athletics traded him soon after this rumor to the Rockies for Drew Pomeranz, and then Anderson made eight starts for Colorado around injuries. He became a free agent after the 2014 season and has bounced around since. He made 17 starts for the A’s this season. It is the fourth most games he’s started in his ten-year big league career.

December 3rd, 2013: Quick Hits: Granderson, Beltran, Trumbo, Cano

The Yankees have signed right-hander Brian Gordon to a minor league deal, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (on Twitter).

You might remember Brian Gordon from such appearances as those two random starts he made in June 2011. Bartolo Colon and David Phelps hit the disabled list at the same time and the Yankees were desperate for a spot starter. Gordon exercised the opt-out clause in his minor league contract with the Phillies, the Yankees scooped him up, and he allowed six runs in 10.1 innings in two starts.

That was 2011. The Yankees released Gordon about a month later so he could go to Korea. He played there for a few years before returning and inking this new minor league contract with the Yankees. Gordon spent the first half of the 2014 season with Triple-A Scranton, where he allowed 46 runs in 77.2 innings before being released at midseason. He hasn’t played since. Rough.

December 6th, 2013: Yankees Sign Kelly Johnson

The Yankees have signed Kelly Johnson to a one-year contract, the team announced today.  Terms of the deal weren’t made public but ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the deal is for exactly $3MM (Twitter link), giving Johnson a small raise from the $2.45MM he earned with Tampa Bay in 2013. 

A few weeks ago, as I was waiting for Game One of the World Series to start, I thought to myself “Matt Kemp is probably the best DH an NL team has used in the World Series in quite some time.” So I looked it up. Turns out the Dodgers used Justin Turner and Joc Pederson at DH in 2017 and those guys are pretty good, plus the Cubs used Kyle Schwarber at DH in 2016, so I was wrong. Kemp wasn’t the best DH an NL team used in World Series in a while.

I mention this because that search led me to discover that Kelly Johnson started at DH in Game One of the 2015 World Series for the Mets. True story. He started at DH, went 0-for-1 with a hit-by-pitch, then was replaced by pinch-hitter Michael Cuddyer against a lefty in the late innings. How about that? Anyway, I was overly excited about the Johnson signing. He then hit .219/.304/.373 (93 wRC+) while bouncing all around the infield for the Yankees before being traded to the Red Sox for Stephen Drew. Boston then sent him to the Orioles for Jemile Weeks. In the span of three seasons (2012-14), Johnson played for all five AL East teams.

December 7th, 2013: Yankees Receiving Significant Interest In Brett Gardner

After inking outfielder Carlos Beltran last night, the Yankees have received “significant interest” in Brett Gardner, reports Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter). The club is willing to deal Gardner, says McCullough, though it is not actively shopping him.

Death, taxes, Brett Gardner trade rumors in the offseason. I should note that some of these events are out of order because deals get agreed to one day and made official another day, and when MLBTR updates their post, the timestamp gets changed. At this point the Yankees had already signed Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury. Those two joined Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki, and Alfonso Soriano. Five outfielders for the three outfield spots plus DH. Gardner was out on the trade market and the Yankees kept him, which is pretty much exactly what happened every offseason from 2009-17. Injuries and Soriano getting old fast cleared up the outfield jam rather quickly.

December 7th, 2013: Yankees Re-Sign Hiroki Kuroda

The Yankees and Hiroki Kuroda finalized a one-year, $16MM contract last night that will allow the right-hander to earn up to $500K worth of incentives, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). Kuroda, a client of Octagon’s Steve Hilliard, will earn $250K for reaching the 190-inning and 210-inning milestones, according to Sherman.

Hiroki Kuroda was the right pitcher at the wrong time for the Yankees. They had Kuroda from 2012-14 and they needed him from 2017-19. Kuroda was the man. He was a no nonsense plow horse who racked up 620 innings and +11.2 WAR in three seasons in pinstripes, all on one-year contracts. One of the best one-year contract signings in franchise history, hands down. Heck, Kuroda was three of the best one-year contract signings in franchise history. I miss this guy.

December 7th, 2013: Yankees Agree To Sign Jacoby Ellsbury

The Yankees have agreed to sign Jacoby Ellsbury, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (via Twitter).  Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com first reported that the two sides were closing in on a seven-year pact.  It is believed the deal will top Carl Crawford‘s $142MM, seven-year deal with one estimate pegging the deal at about $150MM, according to Heyman.

This date, December 7th, 2013, is still the highest trafficked day in RAB history. It’s not even close, really. It surpassed July 9th, 2010, the day of the Cliff Lee non-trade. The hot stove blew up on December 7th, 2013. On that day:

  • The Yankees agreed to sign Ellsbury.
  • The Yankees agreed to sign Beltran.
  • The Yankees agreed to re-sign Kuroda.
  • Curtis Granderson left for the Mets.
  • Robinson Cano left for the Mariners.

Yep, that’s how you get the most visited day in RAB history. As for Ellsbury, gosh what a mess. It was a terrible contract at the time and you could tell that because he was Scott Boras’ top client that offseason and the top Boras client never signs the week before the Winter Meetings. The Yankees had to blow Boras and Ellsbury away with an offer to get him to sign that early. Supposedly the Yankees had been told Cano would be leaving a few days earlier, so they hustled to sign Ellsbury before the Cano news became public and they lost leverage. If that’s the deal they cut with leverage, I don’t want to know what would’ve happened with no leverage.

In his five seasons with the Yankees Ellsbury has hit .264/.330/.386 (98 wRC+) with +7.9 WAR while playing in 520 of 810 possible games, and there’s still two more years to go. There’s a decent chance he’ll never play another game with the Yankees too. This is on the short list of the worst free agent signings in history, Yankees or otherwise.

December 8th, 2013: Yankees Open To Trading Ichiro Suzuki

The Yankees have begun discussing Ichiro Suzuki in trade talks with other clubs, Chad Jennings of the Journal News reports. Jennings notes that this does not mean an Ichiro deal is imminent.

You will be surprised to learn there was minimal interest in a 40-year-old outfielder who hit .262/.297/.342 (72 wRC+) one year earlier. Ichiro is an all-time great. First ballot Hall of Famer. But that two-year contract the Yankees gave him for 2013-14 made no sense from a baseball perspective. We know ownership went over the front office’s head to re-sign Ichiro and it seems clear they were hoping to cash in on his pursuit of 3,000 hits, a milestone he didn’t reach until 2016.

December 8th, 2013: New York Notes: Cashman, Santana, Pelfrey, Ibanez

The Yankees have checked on free agent right-hander Mike Pelfrey, tweets CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman.

Mike Pelfrey! Big Pelf had a 5.19 ERA (3.99 FIP) with the Twins in 2013 and fortunately this rumor didn’t go anywhere, because he allowed 23 runs in 23.2 innings in 2014, also with the Twins. Pelfrey was still in the big leagues as recently as 2017. Never would’ve guessed it. I thought he was done in like 2015.

December 9th, 2013: Jeff Samardzija Rumors: Monday

Although the Yankees like Samardzija, they may not have the sort of prospects the Cubs are seeking, writes Joel Sherman. One member of the Cubs organization told Sherman that the Yankees “have no upper-level talent.”

It was true! The Yankees’ best prospects during the 2013-14 season were Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, and Tyler Austin. They all finished the 2013 in Double-A and were hardly MLB ready. The Cubs held on to Samardzija that offseason and eventually sent him to the Athletics for Addison Russell and former Yankee Billy McKinney at the 2014 trade deadline.

December 10th, 2013: At Least Seven Teams Interested In Eric Chavez

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that at least seven teams are interested in free agent third baseman Eric Chavez. According to Heyman, the Rangers, Rays, Pirates, Braves, Nationals, Diamondbacks and Yankees have all checked in on Chavez, though New York’s recent signing of Kelly Johnson may close that door.

Bringing Eric Chavez back from the dead was one of the most successful reclamation projects in baseball in recent years. The guy was basically done in 2010 and 2011, then, from 2012-14, he hit .277/.342/.483 (120 wRC+) with 28 homers and +3.0 WAR in 648 plate appearances. That’s a mighty fine part-time player. Chavez went to the Diamondbacks in 2013 and returned to the Diamondbacks in 2014. He joined the Yankees front office in 2015 before leaving for the Angels with Billy Eppler in 2016. There was some thought Chavez would replace Mike Scioscia as Angels manager this offseason, but that didn’t happen. The Yankees struck reclamation project gold with him in 2012.

December 10th, 2013: East Notes: Mets, Burnett, Phillies, Benoit

The Yankees have had “lots of internal discussions” about free agent reliever Joaquin Benoit, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Yankees would like to add two bullpen arms.

The Yankees would like to add two bullpen arms? Where have I heard that before? Benoit was still in his heyday in 2013. He threw 67 innings with a 2.01 ERA (2.87 FIP) for the Tigers that season and was very in demand during the 2013-14 offseason, so he signed a multi-year contract with … the Padres? The Padres. Benoit had a 1.49 ERA (2.32 FIP) in 2014 too. Then the wheels came off in 2015 and he bounced around a bit. From 2010-16, Benoit threw 427 innings with a 2.40 ERA (3.23 FIP) and +11.0 WAR. That’s a heck of a six-year run for a pitcher who had major shoulder surgery at age 31 in 2009.

December 11th, 2013: Eight Teams Showing Interest In Johan Santana

Eight teams have expressed interest in left-hander Johan Santana, reports Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York. The Yankees, Mets, Twins, Rays, Orioles, Royals, Brewers and Pirates have all expressed varying levels of interest.

Johan in his prime was something else, man. His 2004-06 seasons (2.75 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 693.1 innings) were as dominant a three-year stretch as we’ve seen from any non-Kershaw since peak Pedro Martinez. By December 2013 though, Santana’s shoulder was cooked. He had a 4.85 ERA (4.09 FIP) in 21 starts with the Mets in 2012 and didn’t even pitch in 2013 because of injuries. I was totally cool with giving him a minor league contract. The Orioles eventually signed him — the Blue Jays signed him in 2015 too — but he never did take the mound. Santana received ten Hall of Fame votes last year, the same number as Jamie Moyer, and fell off the ballot on his first year of eligibility. He was a monster at his peak. One of the best changeups I’ve ever seen.

December 11th, 2013: Indians Told Masterson He Won’t Be Traded

The Indians are said to be open to listening to offers on Justin Masterson, and the Yankees have emerged as a possible suitor, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale reports that the Yankees would be interested in acquiring Masterson in a deal involving Brett Gardner. A third team would likely be required, since the Indians don’t have a need Gardner (Twitter links).

Oh man, I completely forgot about Justin Masterson. That dude’s career was all over the place. His ERA+’s from 2008-13: 147, 99, 84, 122, 79, 110. A Gardner-for-Masterson trade would’ve been a disaster for the Yankees because Masterson started to break down in 2014. He had a 3.45 ERA (3.35 FIP) in 193 innings in 2013 and 5.79 ERA (4.62 FIP) in 188 innings total the rest of his career. Masterson was active as recently as 2017 though, in Triple-A with the Dodgers. Somehow he’s still only 33. Jon Heyman says Masterson is doing missionary work now.

December 11th, 2013: West Notes: Hoes, Doolittle, Rockies, Gregorius

Diamondbacks shortstop Didi Gregorius has drawn some interest from the Yankees, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The D-Backs reportedly could use their shortstop surplus to land a starting pitcher, but the Yankees are in the market for starters themselves and don’t seem to be a good fit in that regard.

December 11th, 2013: The first time we heard the Yankees connected to Gregorius. It wasn’t until 12 months later that the Yankees acquired Sir Didi. Brian Cashman has said the Yankees were after Gregorius for a long time, dating back to his time with the Reds. Didi hit .252/.332/.373 (91 wRC+) with seven homers in 103 games for Arizona in 2013 and everyone was wondering what the Yankees saw in him. Now it’s hard to imagine the Yankees without him.

December 12th, 2013: AL Central Notes: Jackson, Pelfrey, Garza, Butler

The Tigers have discussed trading Austin Jackson to the Yankees in exchange for Brett Gardner, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports.  Both players have been above-average fielders in center over their careers and have comparable career batting lines, though Gardner is a better base-stealer and Jackson has more doubles pop. 

Huh, I don’t remember this at all. Gardner was 29 at the time and coming off a .273/.344/.416 (109 wRC+) line and +3.3 WAR season in 2013. Jackson was 26 and he hit .272/.337/.417 (108 wRC+) with +3.2 WAR. Same player! Except Gardner was three years older and had one fewer year of team control. I reckon I would’ve been all for a Gardner-for-Jackson trade at the time and hey, maybe I was and I don’t remember it. Fortunately the Yankees didn’t do it. Gardner was a 112 wRC+ and +3.3 WAR player in 2014. Jackson slipped to 86 wRC+ and +1.1 WAR and has been a journeyman fourth outfielder since.

December 17th, 2013: AL East Links: Floyd, Ackley, Ortiz, Rays

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that there’s no traction to trade talks between the Yankees and Mariners regarding Dustin Ackley (Twitter link).

This was December 2013. The Yankees didn’t trade for Ackley until July 2015. Ackley was coming off back-to-back poor seasons with the Mariners and the Yankees were looking to buy low on a former top prospect, like they did with Gregorius and Aaron Hicks. Eventually they landed Ackley and it didn’t work out. He was a +0 WAR player in 51 games in pinstripes. Ackley’s spent the last two seasons in Triple-A with the Angels and Fabian Ardaya (subs. req’d) wrote a great article in September about Ackley coming to terms with being a bust.

December 17th, 2013: New York Notes: Reynolds, Baker, Murphy, Tejada

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees have also expressed interest in Jeff Baker as a potential right-handed bat to get some time at second base and third base (Twitter link). Baker mashed against lefties in 2013, posting a .314/.407/.667 batting line with 10 homers.

That’s Jeff Baker, career .296/.350/.509 (126 wRC+) hitter against lefties to you. He hammered southpaws and played several positions, albeit none of them well, and I wanted him on the bench. I wanted him in place of Ichiro, if I remember correctly, but it didn’t happen. The Marlins gave Baker two years and he was limited to 131 sub-replacement level games with them from 2014-15.

December 18th, 2013: Choo Turned Down Seven-Year Offer From Yankees

While the market for Shin-Soo Choo has been slow to develop, he could have already found a home had accepted a lavish offer from the Yankees. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that even after signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153MM contract, the Yankees offered Choo a seven-year, $140MM contract. Agent Scott Boras reportedly countered by asking for Ellsbury money, and the Yankees instead elected to sign Carlos Beltran to a much cheaper three-year, $45MM pact.

Good gravy, could you imagine if the Yankees had signed Ellsbury and Choo to seven-year contracts that offseason? Choo’s been the more productive hitter than Ellsbury to date, but, over the last five seasons, these two have been worth +15.3 WAR combined while being paid $197.3M. Spending almost $13M per WAR seems … inefficient.

December 19th, 2013: Yankees To Sign Carlos Beltran

It didn’t take long for the Yankees to move on from losing Robinson Cano.  The Yankees have officially announced the signing of Carlos Beltran to a three-year deal.  The contract is reportedly worth $45MM and will pay Beltran an even $15MM per season as well as provide him with a no-trade clause.  Beltran is represented by agent Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group.

The Yankees finally got around to announcing the Beltran deal on December 19th. The two sides agreed to terms on December 7th. Anyway, the Beltran deal worked out a lot better than I expected. He struggled and battled injuries in 2014, but otherwise he hit .270/.327/.470 (116 wRC+) in pinstripes. Pretty good for ages 37-39. And the Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip too. Not bad. Not bad at all. It still bugs me the Yankees didn’t sign him in 2005 though. What a blunder.

December 19th, 2013: Yankees Designate Brett Marshall For Assignment

The Yankees announced that they have designated Brett Marshall for assignment.  The move will make room for the newly-signed Carlos Beltran on the 40-man roster.

Marshall had some prospect shine back in the day and apparently he made three appearances with the 2013 Yankees? I don’t remember that at all. Six runs in 12 innings in his only MLB action (to date).

The Cubs claimed Marshall on waivers after this and he’s spent the last few seasons bouncing around Double-A, Triple-A, and independent leagues. This past season Marshall had a 4.56 ERA with 108 strikeouts and 79 walks in 132.1 innings for three different independent league teams.

December 26th, 2013: Minor Moves: Matt Daley, Chris Narveson

After non-tendering Matt Daley in early December, the Yankees have agreed to a new minor league deal with the 31-year-old right-hander, per the team’s transactions page. Daley pitched well in six innings for the Yankees in 2013 and owns a career 4.38 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 86 1/3 big league innings.

Daley somehow made 13 appearances with the 2014 Yankees. He allowed four homers and eleven runs in 14.1 innings. Daley retired after the season and he joined the Yankees as a scout. He’s currently working his way up the organizational ranks and probably isn’t far off from running one of the scouting or player development departments.

December 26th, 2013: Quick Hits: Tanaka, Eaton, Cardinals, Reds

Masahiro Tanaka‘s posting period opened this morning and the Yankees have already contacted Tanaka’s agent Casey Close, Newsday’s Marc Carig reports. 

At long last, Tanaka hit the market. We went through the usual “they might not post him” nonsense for the first few weeks of the offseason. MLB and NPB agreed to rewrite the posting agreement that winter and it allowed Tanaka to negotiate with any team. It was no longer a blind auction with the high bidder winning the player’s negotiating rights. Anyway, the day after Christmas, Tanaka hit the market.

December 30th, 2013: Yankees Plan To Incur 2014-15 Int’l Spending Penalties

The Yankees plan to spend $12MM-$15MM on the 2014-15 international amateur free agent market, incurring $10MM-$12MM in penalties, Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com reports. That $12MM-$15MM figure would not include potential spending for Masahiro Tanaka, who is not subject to international bonus pools that govern spending for most Latin American amateurs.

Gosh, the 2014-15 international spending spree was such a failure. The Yankees spent $30M total between bonuses and penalties and got basically nothing out it. Estevan Florial is far and away the best prospect from the 2014-15 international haul and he was a lower profile signing late in the signing period. Big bonus guys like Nelson Gomez, Jonathan Amundaray, Juan De Leon, Miguel Flames, and Wilkerman Garcia all failed to develop.

The money is whatever. Who cares if the Yankees blow $30M on prospects? The real downside was being limited to $300,000 bonuses in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 signing periods. The Yankees still landed some good prospects those years (Roansy Contreras and Luis Medina, most notably), but they had no chance at the top prospects. Seven-figure guys like Vlad Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez … the bonus cap took the Yankees out of the running for all of them. Sigh. The 2014-15 signing spree was well-intentioned. It worked out about as poorly as possible though.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Middle Relievers

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Brad Brach. (Getty)

The Winter Meetings came and went, and so, too, did a few of the potential bullpen options. The Yankees are still on the hunt for a couple of relievers to replace the free agent duo of Zach Britton and David Robertson – both of whom are still available as of this writing, and both of whom were written about in our season reviews – and, as per Brian Cashman himself, it remains a priority. I’ve already written about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia (who later signed with the Mets for 3-years, $30 MM), Cody Allen, Greg Holland, and Ryan Madson. With the Yankees potential budget restrictions being what they are (or might be), I’ll pivot to some middle relief options to bolster the … well … middle innings.

Brad Brach

2018 Stats – 62.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 46.0 GB%, 3.59 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Yankees fans are familiar with Brach, who pitched for the Orioles from 2014 through this past trade deadline, and has faced the good guys 25 times in his career. He wasn’t terribly effective, though, pitching to a 5.32 ERA in 23.2 IP – but I digress. Brach has been a rock-solid reliever for seven years now, pitching to a 3.05 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.69 FIP in 449 IP since coming to the majors for good in 2012; and that includes a 2.99 ERA (140 ERA+) in 327.2 IP in the AL East. And that’s something that we’ve seen the Yankees value in the past, notably with the aforementioned Happ.

It is worth exploring why Brach pitched so poorly with the Orioles last year, though. His overall numbers were good, but they don’t tell the whole story. Consider his pre- and post-trade numbers:

  • Orioles – 39.0 IP, 20.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 46.5 GB%, 4.85 ERA, 4.01 FIP
  • Braves – 23.2 IP, 21.2 K%, 8.7 BB%, 45.1 GB%, 1.52 ERA, 3.12 FIP

What the heck happened? The easiest explanation is that the Orioles are awful, and everyone on the team felt it. Their porous defense led to a .371 BABIP when Brach was on the mound (his career BABIP is .284), and his batted-ball profile doesn’t suggest that he was giving up better contact than before. His hard-hit percentage was up a bit – but his soft-hit percentage was, too. His HR/9 (0.92) and HR/FB (10.0%) were in-line with career norms, as well. So what about his velocity?

Brach’s fastball did tick down this year, particularly in the first half. It returned to normal after the trade, though, which may suggest any number of things. A hidden injury? A slump? The malaise of being an Oriole? Who knows. But he returned to form with Atlanta, much as Britton did with the Yankees. I don’t want to discount the potential of a slip in velocity going forward, though, as Brach will be 33 shortly after opening day. But I think he’s in-line for a bounceback.

MLBTR forecasts a 2-year, $12 MM deal for Brach, and that seems reasonable to me. He has some closer experience, filling in for Britton in 2017 and part of 2018, but he’s largely been a middle reliever or set-up man otherwise, and I suspect that’s how teams view him. And, at that cost, I think he makes quite a bit of sense for the Yankees.

Oliver Perez

(Jonathan Daniels/Getty)

2018 Stats – 32.1 IP, 35.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 41.2 GB%, 1.39 ERA, 1.74 FIP

Let’s get a few things out of the way first: Perez is a 37-year-old journeyman that had to wait until June to find a team because he was ineffective at best in 2016 and 2017, and his best role is as a lefty specialist. And, yes, 2018 was far and away his best season.

Now, that being said: Perez was an excellent specialist last year. He held lefties to a .191/.214/.274 slash line, which is actually a tick better than he was prior to his two-years of struggle (lefties hit .185/.235/.283 against him in 2015, for example). And he was solid against lefties in those interim years, too; the greatest issue was that he faced a fair amount of righties, and they have murdered him over the last several years. He’s a specialist, through and through.

So is there anything that supports this being for real? Yes, actually: his pitch selection.

Perez all but eliminated his sinker (his worst pitch by a considerable margin in 2016 and 2017) in favor of more four-seamers and more sliders, and it paid dividends. Perhaps due to his focusing on two pitches instead of three, the spin rates on his four-seamer (from 2099 RPM to 2156) and slider (2110 to 2308) increased markedly, and both were more difficult for hitters to square-up as a result. The combination of pitch selection and those pitches having more movement suggests that this wasn’t just luck; and it may even portend a reason to expect something closer to vintage Perez in 2019.

There aren’t really any contract predictions out there for Perez, and I suspect that his market won’t be terribly hot anytime soon. But if the Yankees do turn to a specialist, that lack of interest could result in a bargain.

Sergio Romo

(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

2018 Stats – 67.1 IP, 26.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 36.4 GB%, 4.14 ERA, 4.04 FIP

Romo has long been a standard-bearer for the slider, with the offering representing better than half of all of his pitches in seven of his last eight seasons. And that actually undersells his reliance on the pitch to a degree – just take a look:

 

The fact that batters have hit just .173 against Romo’s slider over his eleven year career is astounding, to say the least. And, despite the .240 batting average against it in 2018, it was largely more of the same – until batters teed off on it to the tune of a .375 average in his horrific September. And September really skewed everything:

  • Pre-September – 58.1 IP, 27.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 39.9 GB%, 3.24 ERA, 3.30 FIP
  • September – 9.0 IP, 23.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 19.4 GB%, 10.00 ERA, 8.83 FIP

Ouch. Romo’s effectiveness dropped off across the board, and it seemed as though every batted ball was hit in the air; and the result of that was five home runs allowed in those nine innings. He had his ups and downs throughout the season, but he has never been as bad as he was in September.

Romo’s anti-fastball approach and year and a half of (mostly) very good performance in the AL East makes him appealing to some extent; and the fact that his market isn’t projected to be all that large helps, too. However, he’ll be 36 in March, and he’s always been a flyball pitcher. And, even with his great slider, it’s hard for me to see a RHP succeeding in Yankee Stadium with a fastball that sits between 87 and 88 MPH, as his has for the last three years.

As a result of this, I wouldn’t say that Romo’s a straight-up no for me – but his name value and upside doesn’t quite jibe with the reality of the Yankees situation.

Tony Sipp

(Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty)

2018 Stats – 38.2 IP, 27.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 1.86 ERA, 2.41 FIP

In terms of their story arcs over the last few years, Sipp and Perez are quite similar. Sipp never struggled to find a job due to his contract with the Astros, but he bounced back from abysmal 2016 and 2017 seasons to be as dominant as ever (if not more so) in his role in 2018.

From 2011 through 2015, Sipp held lefties to a .210/.283/.369 slash line; in 2018, it was .188/.263/.294. In between, lefties hit .264/.335/.540. And, on the off-chance that this needs to be said, that’s simply unacceptable.

So what can we offer in the way of an explanation? A reappearance/rediscovery of velocity may’ve helped:

Sipp’s velocity was dipped noticeably in 2016 and 2017, and regained nearly a full MPH last season. Moreover, he had largely shelved his four-seamer in 2016 and 2017 (roughly 35.7% of his offerings), before going back to it (53.3%) in 2018. It’s worth noting that his fastball has been a plus offering (by FanGraphs’s run values) throughout his career, but was deep into the red in 2016 and 2017. The spin rate remained steady, per Statcast, so maybe it did just come down to velocity.

Regardless, Sipp is another reliever that doesn’t figure to be in big-time demand. If the Yankees want a lefty specialist, Sipp fits the bill. I do think I’d prefer Perez, though, if only because his pitches – in terms of velocity and spin – jump off the page more.

Joakim Soria

(Jeff Gross/Getty)

2018 Stats – 60.2 IP, 29.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 35.7 GB%, 3.12 ERA, 2.44 FIP

Soria is a name that is brought up around every Rule 5 Draft, as one of the biggest success stories from what has largely been an uneventful process.  The Royals snagged him from the Padres organization way back in 2006, and he has gone on to rack-up 634.1 innings of 2.88 ERA (148 ERA+) with 220 saves and great peripherals over an eleven year career.

That was a long time ago, though, and Soria is entering his age-35 season. So what sort of pitcher is he now? As you can see from the numbers above, Soria was excellent last year; both his strikeout and walk rates were better than his career norms, and comfortably better than league-average.

And that’s largely who Soria has been over the last several years. 2016 was his worst year, when he posted a 4.05 ERA (4.36 FIP) for the Royals – but he bounced back nicely in 2017 (3.70 ERA and 2.23 FIP), and was even better last year. The key for him is changing arm slots and speeds and keeping batters off-balance, and it has worked far more often than not. And despite his age and mileage, his velocity has remained steady:

It’s kind of beautiful, isn’t it?

Soria’s also the rare reliever that mixes in more than two pitches. He was a fastball-heavy guy in 2018 (66.4%), but he threw his change-up, slider, and curve right around 10% of the time apiece. It’s enough to keep hitters guessing and, along with his arm slots, that’s probably why each pitch had at least a 25% whiff per swing rate.

MLBTR projects a 2-year, $18 MM deal for Soria, and I can definitely see that happening. In fact, I could see him doing a bit better now that I’ve dug into his numbers a bit more. And at 2-years, $18 MM, I’d be pleased to see him in pinstripes. He’s still a stud.

Mailbag: Tulowitzki, Carpenter, Brantley, Sanmartin, McMahon

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There are ten questions in the first post-Winter Meetings mailbag of the offseason. Make sure you send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Tulo. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Several asked: What about Troy Tulowitzki?

I figured these were coming. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki earlier this week with two years and $38M remaining on his contract, so he can now sign with any team for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki had surgery on both heels earlier this year and he did not play this season at all. In fact, he hasn’t played in the big leagues since July 2017.

Tulowitzki turned 34 in October and he hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 66 games and 260 plate appearances in 2017, the last time he played. A few days ago Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins rather candidly told Ben Nicholson-Smith that he didn’t expect much from Tulowitzki next year. Here’s what Atkins said:

“Candidly, and I think Troy would agree, (above-average production is) not likely,” Atkins told the Toronto chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America Wednesday afternoon. “He will have to over-achieve to play shortstop at an above-average level with above-average offensive performance for 140 games. That would be unlikely based on what has occurred in the last two and a half years, but that doesn’t mean he’s not going to do it. But candidly, I don’t think that’s likely.”

Ouch! Reports indicate Tulowitzki has completed his heel surgery (surgeries, really) recovery and he’s currently working out at home, so that’s good. In a vacuum, I’m not opposed to Tulowitzki as a second base (not shortstop) option. My only concern is that the Yankees are a win now team and there’s a chance he’s a total zero next year, leaving them short a reliable middle infielder.

To me, Tulowitzki would almost have to be a Plan B lottery ticket signing, not someone you pencil into the Opening Day lineup. The problem with that is Tulowitzki probably won’t settle for being some team’s Plan B. He’ll likely go to whichever team offers the most playing time. The Yankees have offense to spare, in theory, so perhaps they’re in position to roll the dice on dirt cheap Tulowitzki. It would be fun. I just think they need more of a sure thing.

Frederick asks: With Paul Goldschmidt going to the Cardinals, will they make Carpenter available or is he actually going to play third base for them? What would it take to put pinstripes on Carpenter, and would that give Hal cover to continue pinching pennies and avoid signing Harper?

Nah, they’re not making Matt Carpenter available. The Cardinals didn’t just trade for one of the best hitters on the planet only to turn around and trade away one of the other best hitters on the planet. Carpenter’s bat makes up plenty for the bad defense, and besides, I’m sure the Cardinals will swap him out for defense in the late innings. If the Cardinals make Carpenter available, I’d want to the Yankees got go after him hard. The guy hit .257/.374/.523 (128 wRC+) with 36 homers last year and he’s owed $14.5M next year ($8.67M luxury tax hit) with an $18.5M option for 2020. Carpenter would be a marvelous fit at first base. He’s everything we all hoped Greg Bird would be. There’s no way St. Louis will trade him though. They were adding Goldschmidt to him, not adding Goldschmidt to subtract Carpenter. The Cardinals want to win next year and he helps him do that.

Toshiki asks: What are your thoughts about trading for Jose Martinez? I believe Martinez’s playing time is significantly reduced with Cardinals trading for Goldschmidt and with overcrowded OF (Ozuna, Fowler, O’Neill, and Bader).

I’d definitely take Martinez at first base. He’s an awful defensive outfielder and, truth be told, he’s an awful defensive first baseman. There’s only one DH spot though, and when a guy hits .309/.372/.478 (130 wRC+) with 31 homers and a 19.0% strikeout rate in 915 plate appearances the last two years like Martinez has, I’m willing to live with the glove. He’s still in his pre-arbitration years too. Martinez has been mentioned in a few trade rumors this last week or so and I get it, definitely listen to offers because something might blow you away, but it sure seems to me that his bat would be very valuable on an NL bench. He’s imperfect but I’d take a shot on him at first base.

Brantley. (Jason Miller/Getty)

Matthew asks: Feel like I haven’t heard too much about Brantley to the Yanks. Report out now saying he is willing (different from able, I know) to play 1b. Isn’t he the exact guy we need? Injuries a major concern, but will also in theory keep his price down. Low K, line drive hitter, stick him in-between judge Stanton he could rake.

Of course Michael Brantley would fit the lineup well. He hit .309/.364/.468 (124 wRC+) with 17 homers and the second lowest strikeout rate (9.5%) in baseball in 2018. Brantley is more of a doubles guy than a homers guy but that’s okay with me. He’s high quality all-around hitter and I’d take him in my lineup any day. Can Brantley play first base? Who knows. He’s never done it in the big leagues and there’d be a learning curve, but his agent indicated he’s willing to do it, and that’s good. Buy-in is important.

More than anything, the question is money. Andrew McCutchen’s contract with the Phillies (three years, $50M) pretty much set the market for Brantley. The Yankees would have to go over the $206M luxury tax threshold to sign him. If they’re willing to do that, Brantley is worth looking into as a first base option. If they’re not willing to go over the threshold, then forget it, there’s no way this will work. Brantley can really hit though. That guy makes any lineup better and he’s my pick to look like the best bargain among the big name free agents 12 months from now.

David asks: If Andujar is destined for LF/1B, wouldn’t he be more valuable to the Yankees as trade bait? Coming off (what should have been ROY) a great season at the plate after playing 3B all year, it seems he is a peak value. Wouldn’t his trade value go down after a position change? Let him headline a package for Thor or Kluber?

Yeah, you can definitely make the case the Yankees should trade Miguel Andujar. In fact, I did it a few months ago. I love the kid, but I’m not sure Andujar will ever be even an average defender at any position, and the fact he rarely walks limits his offensive ceiling to come degree. His OBP will always be held back a bit. I wouldn’t trade Andujar just for the sake of trading him. You’d have to get a Corey Kluber or Noah Syndergaard type back. A true difference-maker. If that player is not available or the two sides can’t agree on the rest of the package, then I have no problem keeping Andujar. I think there’s still another level or two to come offensively and (somewhat) improved defense.

Paul asks: What about Adam Warren as a swingman?

It seems Warren’s days as a potential starter are over. He became a two-pitch pitcher this past season — Warren embraced the anti-fastball philosophy and threw more sliders (45.3%) than fastballs (40.0%) in 2018 — and it’s been a long time since he’s been asked to handle a starter’s workload. I’m sure he can still be an effective multi-inning reliever. I don’t think a true swingman role (long reliever/spot starter) would work. Warren is my dude. He’s forever cool with me. That said, he’s almost certainly had his best years already, and I am totally cool with letting some other team pay for his decline years.

Dave asks: I know that you can’t just look at results to determine who the real prospects are, but it’s hard to look away from 58K/4BB. What gives with Reiver Sanmartin (not even mentioned in the Farm System Year in Review)?

Yeah that was an oversight on my part. I should’ve included Sanmartin in the season review post. The Yankees got him from the Rangers in the Ronald Herrera roster shuffle trade last year — Herrera got hurt in Spring Training and didn’t pitch at all this season, and last month the Rangers dropped him from the 40-man roster — and the 22-year-old southpaw is a low-90s fastball/slider/changeup guy who’s been praised for his pitching smarts.

The Yankees had Sanmartin bounce around from level to level this season and he finished the year with a 2.81 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 67.1 innings. He’s a slight little guy (6-foot-2 and 160 lbs.) and, at this point, if he hasn’t filled out and added velocity, he probably never will. I’m not sure there’s enough here to start but Sanmartin’s interesting as a three-pitch lefty who refuses to walk hitters (career 3.3 BB%). Maybe he can make it work out of the bullpen? Reiver the Reliever™ has a nice ring to it.

Michael asks: What do you think of Asdrubal Cabrera as a Didi fill-in? He’s experienced, could play 2B or SS, a switch hitter who could bring some balance, and could probably be had for a short term deal if the money is right.

I could see Cabrera as this year’s Neil Walker, meaning that veteran infielder who remains unsigned until Spring Training starts. Asdrubal has been solid offensively the last few seasons, including hitting .262/.316/.458 (111 wRC+) with 23 home runs this past season, but wow is his defense at second base bad. Far worse than I realized. The numbers the last few years:

  • 2017: -6 DRS
  • 2018: -17 DRS

Eek. The numbers are just as bad at shortstop and slightly better at third base, but playing Cabrera at third base doesn’t help the Yankees replace Didi Gregorius. I think the Yankees should prioritize defense when replacing Sir Didi. Cabrera is a negative defender and his bat is good, but not great. I feel like there has to be a better option out there. If Asdrubal is still sitting out there in Spring Training, he’s worth revisiting.

Zachary asks: Been reported a few places that the dodgers would look to deal from their excess SP group for upgrades at other positions. It seems like they have a surplus of players at every position, but how do the Yankees line up and which Dodger SP would you target?

Do the Dodgers really have a surplus of starting pitchers? I keep seeing it reported that they’ll willing to trade a starter for help elsewhere, and this is their rotation depth chart:

  1. Clayton Kershaw (franchise icon)
  2. Walker Buehler (budding star)
  3. Hyun-Jin Ryu (accepted the qualifying offer and can’t be traded until June)
  4. Rich Hill (averaged 126 innings the last three years)
  5. Kenta Maeda (demoted to the bullpen this year)
  6. Alex Wood (demoted to the bullpen this year)
  7. Ross Stripling (ran out of gas in the second half this year)
  8. Julio Urias (coming back from a torn shoulder capsule)

The Dodgers needed all those guys plus others to get through the season this year. I’m not sure they’re as loaded with depth as they seem to believe. Assuming Kershaw and Buehler are off-limits, I’d take Wood over the rest almost by default. The 27-year-old threw 151.2 innings with a 3.68 ERA (3.53 FIP) this season and nowadays he’s a ground ball guy (48.9%) more than a strikeout guy (21.2%). MLBTR projects him to make $9.0M in his final year of arbitration in 2019.

The biggest obstacle standing in the way of a potential Dodgers trade is that their needs are the same as the Yankees. They need a second baseman and bullpen help, and have outfield depth to spare. The Yankees need a second baseman and bullpen help, and have outfield depth to spare. It seem Los Angeles is open to trading a starter for a middle infielder and/or a bullpen arm. The Yankees could give them Chad Green or something, otherwise I don’t know if there’s a match between these two teams.

Dennis asks: Any interest in engaging the Rockies on Ryan McMahon. Colorado has never really given him much of a chance and he could be a fit at 1B.

Yes, definitely. The Rockies led Ian Desmond hit .236/.307/.422 (81 wRC+) at first base this year rather than let McMahon, a longtime top prospect, show what he can do. The 23-year-old McMahon has hit .337/.379/.577 (145 wRC+) with 25 homers in 125 Triple-A games the last two years and he’s taken well to first base after moving over from third (because he’s block by Nolan Arenado). A lefty bat with power who can play both corner infield spots is a worth pursuing. I have no idea what the Rockies are planning to do with McMahon — would they really send him back to Triple-A again and keep playing Desmond at first? — but if they’re willing to listen to offers, the Yankees should check in.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Thursday

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Come on Yankees please. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The final day of the 2018 Winter Meetings has arrived. These last few days have been pretty boring, huh? There haven’t been any blockbusters and even the rumors have been slow by Winter Meetings standards. (Please trade J.T. Realmuto already. I’m sick of hearing about him.) I guess that’s what happens when half the league is rebuilding and the other half decided to get under the luxury tax threshold at the same time in what was surely one big coincidence (wink wink nudge nudge).

As for the Yankees, they agreed to re-sign lefty J.A. Happ yesterday following a quick tryst with Noah Syndergaard earlier in the week. Happ gets two years and $34M or so with a vesting option. I can live with it. Aside from that, we’ve heard the Yankees connected to guys like Freddy Galvis, Adam Ottavino, and Zach Britton as they look to bolster their bullpen and replace the injured Didi Gregorius. Bullpen help and an infielder are the top priorities now.

“We try to promote we are a progressive, open-minded operation, that every day is different and that we are prepared to pivot and react at any moment,” said Cashman to Bryan Hoch. “If something doesn’t make sense today, it doesn’t mean it won’t make sense tomorrow. All I can keep telling you is, you know where my current focuses are, but at the same time we’re a fully operational Death Star.”

Cashman knows the Death Star got blown up, right? Anyway, the Rule 5 Draft is at 12pm ET today and everyone pretty much heads home after that, so the Winter Meetings are pretty much over. I’m sure some news and rumors and will trickle in though. Here are Monday’s rumors, Tuesday’s rumors, and Wednesday’s rumors, and here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. All timestamps are Eastern Time.

  • 5:32pm: The Yankees are open to adding another starter even after re-signing J.A. Happ, though there is little optimism for a Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer trade with the Indians. I figured that was the case even before the Happ deal. [Marc Carig]
  • 5:29pm: The reliever market “is starting to move” and the Yankees are talking to free agents and potential trade partners, according to assistant GM Mike Fishman. Jeurys Familia (Mets) and Joe Kelly (Dodgers) signed late last night, so the bullpen floodgates should open soon.  [Bryan Hoch]
  • 10:02am: The Yankees have asked about “high-end Major League talent” in Sonny Gray trade talks and that is apparently why he has not yet been traded. I have no problem with that. The Yankees (probably) won’t get that high-end talent, but ask for the moon and adjust down as necessary. You never know, some team just might be willing to meet that big initial asking price. Scott Kazmir, Victor Zambrano, etc. etc. [George King]
  • 9:30am: Thanks to Gleyber Torres’ versatility, the Yankees are not prioritizing a shortstop or a second baseman while searching for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They want the best player regardless of position. “The best decision possible, whatever it happens to be. Clearly, it’s a very deep amount of opportunities in the second base market rather than shortstop. So we’ll just have to decide,” said Brian Cashman. [Brendan Kuty]