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Re-signing J.A. Happ makes it even less likely the Yankees will sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper

December 18, 2018 by Mike

Tomorrow Manny Machado will visit the Yankees and I guess try to sell them on the idea of signing a 26-year-old superstar who’s done things few other infielders have done through their age 25 season. Last week the Yankees reportedly visited Bryce Harper at his Las Vegas home. “Remember that time I had a +10 WAR season at age 22? Pretty cool, huh?” is how I like to pretend the conversation went.

The Yankees are the Yankees and they will always be connected to the top free agents, if for no other reason than because agents like to use them as leverage. Did anyone really expect the offseason to pass without the Yankees touching base with Machado and Harper? It’s been a very long time since two free agents this young and this good hit the market and odds are it’ll be a very long time before it happens again.

The Yankees are the Yankees in that they still wear pinstripes and the interlocking NY, though the free-spending Yankees of yesteryear don’t really exist anymore. They stayed under the luxury tax threshold this past season and all indications are staying under the threshold is a long-term goal, not just a one-time thing. I am very open to being wrong. Right now, it seems spending will be artificially capped.

Last week the Yankees used some of their apparently limited dollars to re-sign J.A. Happ to fill out the rotation and provide stability. Happ’s solid and a safe bet to take the ball every fifth day. He’ll also count as $17M against the luxury tax the next two years, so he’s not exactly cheap. The difference between Happ and Patrick Corbin is $6.33M in luxury tax dollars. That ain’t much! But I digress.

Coming into the winter my quick math had the Yankees at $156.3M in 2019 luxury tax payroll dollars. That includes estimates for pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players, plus other miscellaneous expenses. Here’s an update on the 2019 payroll situation:

2019 payroll coming into offseason: $156.3M
Brett Gardner: $7.5M
CC Sabathia: $8M
James Paxton: $9M (projected)
J.A. Happ: $17M

Add it all up and you get $197.8M, or $8M under the $206M luxury tax threshold, give or take. Sonny Gray will be traded at some point and, even if you subtract out his entire $9.1M projected salary, the Yankees are still at $188.7M in 2019 luxury tax dollars, or $17M under the threshold. That’s $17M to get a Didi Gregorius replacement and two relievers, plus general depth. The Yankees have internal options for those roles, sure, but help would be nice.

It’s been clear all along that signing Machado or Harper would require going over the luxury tax threshold and that is still true. Those two are looking at $30M annually at a minimum. I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up closer to $40M per year than $30M per year. If the Yankees give Machado or Harper a deal worth $35M per year, that puts their 2019 payroll at $223.7M even with Gray subtracted and no other additions. Yeah.

With Happ now on-board, signing Machado or Harper plus a Gregorius replacement plus bullpen help would not just take the Yankees over the $206M luxury tax threshold. It would take them into the second luxury tax tier and possibly even the third, triggering additional penalties. Here are the 2019 luxury tax penalties that apply to the Yankees, who would be considered a first time offender after getting under the threshold in 2018:

Sub-$206M payroll: No luxury tax
$206M to $226M payroll: 20% tax on every dollar over $206M
$226M to $246M payroll: $4M plus 32% tax on every dollar over $226M, and top draft pick moves back ten spots
$246M+ payroll: $10.4M plus 62.5% tax on every dollar over $246M, plus top draft pick moves back ten spots

Again, subtracting out Gray and giving Harper or Machado a $35M per season contract puts the payroll at $223.7M next year with no other additions. Harper or Machado would push the Yankees right up to the second luxury tax tier without adding a Gregorius replacement or bullpen help. Add a top reliever, a $10M to $12M per year guy, and the Yankees are suddenly flirting with the third luxury tax tier.

Here’s the other thing: The Yankees would have to be willing to live with those luxury tax penalties in multiple years, not just 2019. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will be arbitration-eligible next offseason and due significant raises, especially Judge. Luis Severino is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this winter and he’s getting expensive too. The Yankees were able to get under the luxury tax threshold this year because those guys provided big production on six-figure salaries.

The Yankees don’t have much money slated to come off the books next winter. Gardner, Sabathia, Gregorius, Dellin Betances, and Aaron Hicks. That’s pretty much it. Gregorius, Betances, and Hicks won’t be easy to replace either, should the Yankees let them walk. Aroldis Chapman could opt out of his contract next offseason but the Yankees couldn’t count on that to reduce payroll. A huge contract for Machado or Harper combined with impending arbitration raises means the Yankees would have to live with an elevated luxury tax payroll not just in 2019, but beyond as well.

The 2020-21 offseason will provide some financial breathing room with Masahiro Tanaka’s and Jacoby Ellsbury’s huge contracts expiring (and Happ’s?), plus Giancarlo Stanton could opt out, but again, you can’t count on that. Perhaps the Yankees would be willing to live with the second tier luxury tax penalties in 2019 and 2020 to get a high-end mid-20s talent like Machado or Harper knowing Tanaka and Ellsbury are off the books in two years. Two years is an eternity in baseball time though.

Just to provide some context, let’s quickly calculate the luxury tax penalties for the next two years assuming the Yankees are unwilling to go into the third luxury tax tier, which is set a $40M above the threshold. A $246M payroll in 2019 would result in $10.4M in luxury tax penalties and a $248M payroll in 2020 — the threshold rises to $208M in 2020 — would result in $14.4M in luxury tax penalties at the repeat offender rates. That is $24.8M total in luxury tax penalties for running payrolls no more than $40M over the threshold in 2019 and 2020. The Yankees would also have their top draft pick moved back ten spots in both years.

Keep in mind the Yankees paid $27.4M in luxury tax in 2016 and $26M in luxury tax in 2015. That’s two single seasons with a higher luxury tax bill than what the Yankees would incur by exceeding the threshold by no more than $40M in each of the next two seasons. That doesn’t seem like a huge deal, does it? Everyone kinda assumed that was the point of getting under the threshold this past season, to reset the luxury tax rate and lower the luxury tax penalties going forward while adding a potential superstar like Machado or Harper.

And maybe that’ll happen. I hope it does. Would be really cool. Point is, with Happ back on-board, the Yankees will have to not only exceed the luxury tax threshold next year to sign Machado or Harper, they’ll have to go into the second penalty tier to address all their needs, realistically. Everything the Yankees are saying these days points to keeping payroll down and hey, it could all be posturing. It’s much easier to believe the Yankees will keep payroll down after they did it this year. That works in their favor while talking to free agents. They gave themselves leverage.

Part of me — a small part of me — believes the Yankees are playing it cool right now and all the talk about keeping payroll down is designed to keep their true intentions a secret. Did the Yankees really go through all the trouble of resetting the tax rate this year to leave this offseason with Happ and a reliever while passing on Harper on Machado? Hopefully not. Right now though, it is entirely possible that is indeed the plan, especially they’re now in position to jump into the second luxury tax tier.

Thoughts following the 2018 Winter Meetings

December 18, 2018 by Mike

It will be 2019 in exactly two weeks. Pretty crazy, huh? The Winter Meetings are over and the hot stove is kinda sorta starting to heat up, but there’s still a lot that needs to happen between now and Opening Day. That goes for the Yankees and the other 29 teams out there as well. Anyway, here are some miscellaneous thoughts.

1. It is becoming increasingly clear that tanking (or rebuilding or whatever you want to call it) is a significant problem for baseball. I count seven teams that will go into next season with no real shot at contention: Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Rangers, Royals, Tigers. The Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Giants, Reds, and White Sox could make it 12 teams depending how the rest of their offseasons go. More than one-third of the league! First and foremost, that many teams not trying is straight up bad. It equals too many meaningless games throughout the season and it gives fans an easy reason to tune out. Secondly, tanking has completely broken free agency. Not only are those rebuilding teams not willing to spend big on free agents, but now contending teams have started to address their needs by trading for players rebuilding teams are giving away. The Yankees traded for James Paxton. The Phillies traded for Jean Segura. The Mets traded for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Cardinals traded for Paul Goldschmidt. So on and so forth. Why spend money on a free agent when you can trade prospects, most of whom will flame out anyway, to get a cheaper player? Maury Brown reports 18 teams — 18! — reduced payroll in 2018. How is that okay? It is December 18th and only 15 free agents have signed a deal worth at least $10M this offseason. There are still over 140 unsigned free agents and they’re not all Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. A lot of those dudes are going to be jobless come Spring Training because a third of the league isn’t trying and the other two thirds aren’t spending money because the luxury tax is effectively a salary cap, and because they’re addressing their needs through trades. I don’t know what the fix is here, but tanking has become a plague on the sport.

2. Am I the only one who thinks it’s kinda weird new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen is so open to trading Noah Syndergaard, his former client? The Mets just made that big win now trade for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, they signed Jeurys Familia and Wilson Ramos, and they were in the hunt for J.T. Realmuto prior to signing Wilson Ramos. I understand you have to be open to anything at all times, but keeping a guy like Syndergaard seems like a no-brainer given their current plan and situation. I can’t help but wonder whether Van Wagenen has some inside information that is pushing him to trade Syndergaard, and I don’t mean the typical “a team knows more about their player than everyone else” information. I mean privileged information he acquired in confidence as Syndergaard’s agent. It doesn’t necessarily have to be something nefarious like Syndergaard pitching through an injury and his arm is about to give out. Maybe Van Wagenen knows Syndergaard’s contract demands will make keeping him long-term impossible, something like that. This is almost certainly me reading too much into things because, after all, it sure looks like the Mets are going to keep Syndergaard now. It’s just that, when that three-team rumor popped up last week, giving up three years of Syndergaard to get two years of Realmuto made no sense to me, and I couldn’t help but wonder whether Van Wagenen knew something about Syndergaard none of us did.

3. The Yankees really need to tone down their talk about the Red Sox this offseason. I get it, they’re being asked about Boston nonstop, but their answers are pretty dumb. Here’s what Randy Levine told Ken Davidoff two weeks ago:

“I think we’re as good as the Red Sox right now. I think they had a better postseason than us … I said that postseason could have gone either way with a couple of innings. They have a great team and they’re going to be a really great team for a long time, but I think we’re as good as they are.”

Aaron Boone said pretty much the same thing at the Winter Meetings last week. “We feel like we’re very much on level ground with them,” he said. No. Just no. Even if you think the Yankees are as good as the Red Sox, and you could easily argue they are, the “we’re as good as the Red Sox” talk just sounds silly after they embarrassed you in the ALDS — the Red Sox handed the Yankees literally the most lopsided postseason loss in franchise history — and won the World Series. Sorry, but you have no choice but to take the L after that. Those are the rules. The tough talk comes off as hollow at best and desperate and pathetic at worst. “We feel very good about our team, but they were better than us last year and it’s up to us to prove we’re better than them next year.” See how easy that is? It’s been hard for me to do anything other than roll my eyes and laugh at the comments the Yankees have made about the Red Sox this offseason. When it comes to grabbing the back page, George Steinbrenner these guys are not.

4. I sorta love the idea of Francisco Liriano as a long reliever/spot starter even though he wasn’t very good for the Tigers this past season, throwing 133.2 innings with a 4.58 ERA (5.11 FIP) as a starter. Liriano has a history of above-average swing-and-miss and ground ball rates, and he’s started and relieved throughout his career. That includes pitching out of the bullpen for the 2017 Astros en route to a World Series championship. Liriano strikes me as the kinda guy who could benefit from the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. He’s always had a great slider and a great changeup …

… and, at age 35, his fastball is more 91-93 mph than 94-96 mph these days. This past season he threw 55% fastballs. Get him down to 40% heaters and Liriano might find a second wind, so to speak, and carve out a role as a strong complementary piece. Liriano pitched on a one-year deal worth $4M this past season. Would he take similar money to be a long man/spot starter in 2019? Maybe! I’m sure this is just one of those random “wow I really like this player oh well nevermind” offseason phases that lasts a week or two, but Liriano seems like a decent fit for the last bullpen spot.

5. Not counting my weird Francisco Liriano fantasy, my hunch is the Yankees will sign one top reliever and acquire one surprise second or third tier reliever. Trading Sonny Gray for a similar reclamation project bullpen arm could be in the cards as well. By top bullpen arm, I mean one of David Robertson, Andrew Miller, or Adam Ottavino. Zach Britton seems like a good bet to get big closer dollars and I don’t think the Yankees will go there. Robertson, Miller, or Ottavino in the $10M to $12M per season range is my guess. As for the surprise reliever, I could see a deal with David Phelps, who is on his way back from Tommy John surgery and was very good in a short relief role before his elbow gave out. One name I keep coming back to: Yoshihisa Hirano. The 34-year-old right-hander threw 66.1 innings with a 2.44 ERA (3.69 FIP) and a very good ground ball rate (50.3%) with average strikeout (22.5%) and walk (8.8%) rates. He pitched in all sorts of high-leverage situations too. The D’Backs are rebuilding, the Goldschmidt trade made that clear, and Hirano has one year left on his contract at $3M. Could be a sneaky good pickup. Well, anyway, my hunch is the Yankees sign one of the top setup men and add an under-the-radar second bullpen arm. I don’t see two top relievers happening. Three eight-figure relievers in one bullpen doesn’t seem likely.

6. I feel like the Yankees will replace Didi Gregorius in one of two ways. Either they’ll go big and sign Manny Machado or they’ll go super cheap with an all-glove/no-bat guy. Nothing in between. Among those all-glove/no-bat guys, I think I’ve talked myself into Freddy Galvis being the best among a group that includes Adeiny Hechavarria and Jose Iglesias. I look it this way: All three will give you comfortably above-average defense and all three will likely post a sub-.300 OBP, but Galvis is only one with a chance to hit double-digit home runs. He hit 13 homers with the Padres this past season and has 45 home runs the last three years. Hechavarria and Iglesias have 32 homers combined the last three years. Also, for what it’s worth, Galvis is said to be an incredibly popular clubhouse guy who mixes well with young players. That’s not nothing. Galvis, Hechavarria, and Iglesias are pretty close to interchangeable. They’re all standout glovemen who don’t provide much with the bat. Galvis has some power though, which means he’ll have a real impact on the game that many more times than Hechavarria or Iglesias. I don’t love Galvis so much that I’ll be upset if the Yankees don’t sign him. But, if they go with an all-glove guy, he’d be my pick over Hechavarria and Iglesias.

Yankees re-sign J.A. Happ, designate Bridwell for assignment

December 17, 2018 by Mike

December 17th: The contract is finally official. The Yankees announced it earlier today. Happ gets $17M in 2019 and $17M in 2020 with the $17M vesting option for 2021. Joel Sherman says the option vests with 165 innings or 27 starts in 2021, which are quite reasonable terms. There is no buyout on the option, so Happ comes with a $17M luxury tax hit through the life of the contract.

To clear space on the 40-man roster, the Yankees designated righty Parker Bridwell for assignment, the team announced. He was claimed off waivers from the Angels a few weeks ago. I had a feeling one of the out of minor league options arms (Bridwell, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, A.J. Cole) would get the roster axe for Happ and Bridwell it is. He could clear waivers and remain in the organization as a non-40 man roster player.

December 12th: After some confusion, it appears the Yankees and J.A. Happ have agreed to a reunion. Mark Feinsand reports the Yankees and Happ have agreed to a two-year contract with what sounds like a third year vesting option based on innings and starts. There’s no word on the money or terms yet. Joel Sherman says the deal could be announced tomorrow.

“A real pro,” Brian Cashman said to Ronald Blum when asked about Happ. “Had a veteran presence within that clubhouse, knew exactly what was necessary and brought it every five days in the most competitive division in all of baseball.”

As I wrote earlier today, I didn’t like the idea of a guaranteed third year at all, so I’m glad the Yankees and Happ were apparently able to compromise with a vesting option. Happ turned 36 a few weeks ago and guaranteeing multiple years to a pitcher that age is always risky. At least the Yankees were able to mitigate that risk somewhat.

Once this deal is official the Yankees will be slated to go into next season with Happ, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, James Paxton, and Masahiro Tanaka as their five-man rotation in whatever order. That’s a rock solid rotation with upside in Severino and Paxton (and Tanaka). The Yankees still have Sonny Gray too, though I get the sense he’ll be gone before Spring Training.

This past season Happ threw 177.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA (3.98 FIP) between the Yankees and Blue Jays, and his 26.3% strikeout rate was a career high by 3.3 percent points. His 27 home runs allowed were also a career high (by five). Happ had a 2.69 ERA (4.21 FIP) in eleven starts and 63.2 innings with the Yankees after the trade.

With Happ back in the fold the Yankees can now focus on a Didi Gregorius replacement and the bullpen, plus general depth. A better sixth starter than Domingo German and Luis Cessa would be cool given Paxton’s and Sabathia’s injury histories. Will the Yankees pivot and go after Manny Machado or Bryce Harper? I sure hope so.

DotF: Albert Abreu, Nestor Cortes wrap up winter ball stints

December 17, 2018 by Mike

The Arizona Fall League season wrapped up nearly a month ago now, but the various Caribbean winter league seasons are still going strong. Here are some minor league notes, including a pair of injury updates, before we get to the performance updates:

OF Clint Frazier (concussion) has resumed baseball activities, he announced on Twitter. Hooray for that. Here’s some video. Frazier said he’s been at it for a few weeks now and that is good news. Seems to me he’s on track to be a full participant in Spring Training.
RHP Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery) either has started throwing off a mound as part of his rehab or will begin doing so shortly, according to his Twitter feed. Heller had surgery to repair his elbow ligament and also remove a bone spur from his elbow in April. He’s probably looking at a May or June return to game action.
The Yankees have announced the OF Tyler Hill trade. The Tigers selected him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last week then sent him to New York for cash considerations. “He’s a super athlete and is an under-the-radar baseball player,” said a scout to Kevin Kernan.
Triple-A Scranton will host the 2020 Triple-A All-Star Game at PNC Field, the team announced. It is the second Triple-A All-Star Game in Scranton and the first since the ballpark was renovated in 2012. Scranton hosted the 1995 Triple-A All-Star Game as a Phillies affiliate.

Arizona Fall League (stats are final)

IF Thairo Estrada: 19 G, 19-for-80 (.238), 9 R, 2 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 15 K, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.238/.282/.263)
OF Estevan Florial: 21 G, 13-for-73 (.178), 10 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 8 RBI, 12 BB, 29 K, 2 SB, 1 CS (.178/.294/.260)
1B Steven Sensley: 21 G, 15-for-76 (.197), 4 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 26 K, 1 CS, 2 HBP (.197/.256/.263)
RHP Jordan Foley: 7 G, 7 GS, 19.2 IP, 20 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 19 BB, 20 K, 2 HR, 1 HB, 2 WP (9.15 ERA and 1.98 WHIP)
RHP Hobie Harris: 9 G, 15 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 2 WP (4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP)
RHP Matt Wivinis: 11 G, 12 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 14 K, 1 HB, 1 WP (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP)
RHP Kyle Zurak: 9 G, 9.1 IP, 16 H, 15 R, 12 ER, 10 BB, 3 K, 3 HR, 3 WP (11.57 ERA and 2.79 WHIP)

[Read more…]

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Tulowitzki, Miller, Kikuchi, Gray

December 17, 2018 by Mike

“You want us to add how many zeroes to our offer???” (Mike Zarrilli/Getty)

The Winter Meetings are over but the hot stove marches on. The Yankees are still looking for a middle infielder and two relievers, plus general depth. “I got a lot of lines out and we are still fishing. We are going to try to catch a very particular type of fish in very particular categories. We will bring the boat back to dock and send her out tomorrow and drop our lines again,” said Brian Cashman to George King last week. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Machado will visit Yankees on Wednesday

Manny Machado will visit the Yankees on Wednesday, reports George King. He’ll reportedly visit the White Sox and Phillies at some point this week as well. Machado will be the second free agent to visit the Yankees this offseason (that we know about), joining Patrick Corbin. Corbin inked a six-year deal with the Nationals a few days after touring Yankee Stadium. I don’t get the sense Machado will sign as quickly after the face-to-face meetings as Corbin, but who knows.

Hal Steinbrenner has made it clear Machado needs to explain the non-hustle thing before the Yankees would consider signing him, but seriously, what answer could Machado give that’s satisfactory? I doubt “I’m sorry, it won’t happen again,” will cut it. To me, Hal’s comments are little more than a great sound bite to placate the portion of the fan base that obsesses over this stuff. The Yankees value Machado at X and they will sign him if he agrees to X (or something less than X), not if he says the right things at the meeting Wednesday. End of story.

Yankees will “monitor” Tulowitzki’s progress

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees will “monitor” free agent infielder Troy Tulowitzki’s progress as he works his way back from dual heel surgeries. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract last week. Any team can now sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Six teams, including the Cubs, are after Tulo, report Susan Slusser and Jon Heyman.

Tulowitzki, 34, has not played since July 2017 due to a variety of injuries. He hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) with crummy defensive numbers in 66 games in 2017. Reports indicate Tulowitzki has recovered from his heel surgeries and is working out, and is willing to play second or third base. He’s going to hold a showcase at some point, apparently. I’m not against bringing Tulowitzki in as a low-cost flier. Does it make sense for the Yankees to guarantee him the type of playing time it’ll probably take to sign him though? Eh. Debatable.

Cashman met with Miller’s agent

Brian Cashman met with Mark Rodgers, Andrew Miller’s agent, at some point his offseason, reports Kristie Ackert. My guess is it was at the Winter Meetings last week. (Cashman met with Adam Ottavino’s agent last week.) The Yankees reviewed Miller’s medicals earlier this winter, which is a) not unusual for a free agent, and b) more than a formality given his injury problems this past season (hamstring, knee, shoulder). That they reviewed the medicals and still have interest suggests they feel good about things.

The Cardinals, Mets, and Phillies are among the teams that are said to have interest in Miller this offseason and the free agent reliever floodgates may open now that Jeurys Familia and Joe Kelly have signed. Familia got three years and $30M and Miller wouldn’t be wrong to seek a larger contract. Three years is really pushing it at this point giving the knee problems that span multiple seasons. Perhaps Miller would be open to returning to New York on a higher priced two-year deal? I guess the more relevant question is whether the Yankees are open to a higher priced short-term contract, or would they tack on that extra year to get a lower luxury tax hit? I guess we’ll find out.

Kikuchi to begin meeting with teams this week

Yusei Kikuchi traveled to Los Angeles this past weekend and will begin meeting with interested teams in the coming days, report the Kyodo News and Sports Nippon. “(I) will narrow down the choices after hearing the opinions of my agent and Japanese staff,” he said, adding he will “of course” be open to joining any of the 30 teams. Kikuchi is a Scott Boras client and it sounds like the bulk of meetings will take place at Boras’ Southern California office.

Last week Brian Cashman admitted the Yankees scouted Kikuchi “extensively” and said he’s discussed the 27-year-old southpaw with Boras. That was before the Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ, however, so it’s unclear whether the Yankees will meet with Kikuchi and make a serious attempt to sign him. It could be they’re done with their rotation and will now move on to other things. Here’s everything you need to know about Kikuchi. I’d be totally cool with pursuing him and going into next season with a six-man or modified six-man rotation until someone gets hurt, which will happen because it always happens.

Yankees still evaluating Gray’s market

In the latest Sonny Gray non-update, George King reports the Yankees are still evaluating the trade market for the right-hander. “As far as Sonny Gray, (we) continue to assess all options with him. There are various opportunities to consider, different types of deals that are being offered. We are weighing all our needs, both now and future needs and prospects and Major League pieces and what holes we can fill on the Major League roster,” said assistant GM Mike Fishman.

Last week it was reported eleven teams initially showed interest in Gray, and the Yankees have since whittled the list down to a handful of serious suitors. The asking price is said to be high — the Yankees asked the Reds for top prospect Taylor Trammell — though I imagine it’ll come down soon enough. Now that J.A. Happ has returned and the Yankees have their five starters in place, their efforts to move Gray could pick up steam. His projected $9.1M salary is a nice chunk of change the Yankees could use to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Taking stock of the 2019 Yankees with two months to go until Spring Training

December 17, 2018 by Mike

Where does Bird fit in? (Omar Rawlings/Getty)

At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	J.A. Happ	Dellin Betances
	2B G. Torres/OPEN	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	Aroldis Chapman
	SS G. Torres/OPEN	RF Aaron Judge	CC Sabathia	Chad Green
	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	Luis Severino	Jonathan Holder
			Masahiro Tanaka	OPEN
BENCH	DISABLED LIST			OPEN
Austin Romine	Didi Gregorius	LIMBO		OPEN
OPEN	Ben Heller	Jacoby Ellsbury		OPEN
OPEN	Jordan Montgomery	Sonny Gray

Also on the 40-man roster: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Parker Bridwell, RHP Luis Cessa, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Domingo German, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Stephen Tarpley, C Kyle Higashioka, IF Hanser Alberto, 1B Greg Bird, IF Thairo Estrada, UTIL Tyler Wade, UTIL Tim Locastro, OF Clint Frazier.

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Voit	LF Gardner	Happ	CL Chapman
	2B Torres/Wade	CF Hicks	Paxton	SU Betances
	SS Torres/Wade	RF Judge	Sabathia	SU Green
	3B Andujar	OF Stanton	Severino	MR Holder
BENCH			Tanaka	MR Kahnle
C Romine	DISABLED LIST			MR Tarpley
IF Alberto	Ellsbury	Heller		LG Cessa
UTIL Locastro	Gregorius	Montgomery		LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

Fan Confidence Poll: December 17th, 2018

December 17, 2018 by Mike

2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS