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Four things we’ve learned about the 2019 Yankees so far in Spring Training

March 5, 2019 by Mike

In three weeks and two days the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. They are a week and a half into their Grapefruit League season and, so far, no one has gotten hurt. That is the most important thing right now. The pitchers are getting stretched out and the hitters are still working to get their timing down. The single most important thing on March 5th is good health.

Spring Training numbers are full of lies. Tyler Wade’s .333/.412/.733 batting line doesn’t mean anything, and I say that as a Wade fan. J.A. Happ’s 20.25 ERA is no big deal. Spring Training performance is generally meaningless and yet, each and every year teams base roster decisions on spring numbers. Not major decisions, it’s usually only one of the last roster spots, but spring performance does sometimes dictate roster decisions.

The Yankees, thankfully, do not have many roster spots up for grabs this winter. We don’t have to worry about them reading too much into Grapefruit League numbers and taking the wrong guy north. That said, not everything we see in spring is meaningless and we have learned some things about the 2019 Yankees from their nine exhibition games to date. Here are four things we’ve learned so far.

Tulowitzki might actually have something left in the tank

Coming into camp, it was impossible to know what Troy Tulowitzki had to offer the Yankees. He’s battled injuries throughout his career and he hadn’t played in a competitive game since July 2017, and he’s also 34 now, which is where you’d expect normal age-related decline to become a factor as well. The Yankees decided to roll the dice on the Blue Jays’ dime because hey, why not? If it works, great. If not, then no big deal.

Tulowitzki took Marcus Stroman deep in his very first Grapefruit League at-bat this year, which made for great schadenfreude, but the home run was only a little poke just inside the right field foul pole. That ball probably sails foul if it were, say, 320 feet down the line rather than 314 feet. The more telling homer came in Tulowitzki’s next game, when he yanked a ball over the wall in the left-center field gap:

At his best throughout his career, Tulowitzki has been a (mostly) pull hitter who gets the ball in the air, and that’s the Tulowitzki we saw on that home run. The ball is jumping off his bat in the super early going (3-for-6 with two homers and a double), which sure as heck beats the alternative, that being his bat looking old and slow. Also, Tulowitzki has looked pretty good at shortstop thus far. He’s made some non-routine plays.

“More than (the homers), the way he’s moving in the field,” said Aaron Boone to Erik Boland when asked what most excites him about Tulowitzki. “It’s great to get some early results and get some homers out of the gate. But I’m probably more excited about how he’s moving in the field and how he’s attacking the ball and playing free and easy. He looks really athletic out there. I think that’s the thing I’m even more excited about.”

After that long layoff, it would’ve been understandable if Tulowitzki came out of the gate looking rusty and sluggish. The guy hadn’t played in 20 months, after all. It would’ve been understandable and also concerning because the Yankees have Tulowitzki penciled in as their regular shortstop. Sliding Gleyber Torres over to shortstop and putting DJ LeMahieu at second base is a fine backup plan. Clearly, the best Yankees roster includes a productive Tulowitzki.

If nothing else, Tulowitzki has shown there is still some life in his bat, and that playing shortstop is not a pipe dream. He’s given everyone a reason to keep paying it attention. Will this last? Who knows. History suggests Tulowitzki will get hurt at some point. Tulowitzki came to camp as an unknown and the first impression is good. We’ve seen signs of a productive player, not someone who looks like he missed the last 20 months.

“I have a lot of work ahead of me,” said Tulowitzki to Bryan Hoch following his second homer. “Two games; I need to be out there more, see more pitchers, just be on my feet more. But I’ll take it. It’s a good start. I’m just having fun, man. It was a long road for me, so every time I step out there on the field, I don’t take it for granted. I’m trying to enjoy every moment.”

Bird is healthy

Greg Bird is a Grapefruit League Hall of Famer. He’s hitting .462/.533/.923 with three doubles and one home run through 15 plate appearances this spring and is a career .319/.420/.674 hitter in Spring Training. Bird has never carried his spring performance over into the regular season because he’s never actually made it through Spring Training healthy as a big leaguer. The last three years:

2016: Had shoulder surgery and missed Spring Training.
2017: Fouled a pitch off his foot at the end of camp and tried to play through it in April.
2018: Started the season on the disabled list after dealing with ankle soreness in camp.

Bird was impossibly lost last year after returning from his second ankle surgery in two years — he hit .135/.210/.260 (26 wRC+) after August 1st last season and looked every bit as bad as those numbers suggest — and the fact of the matter is the 2017 postseason is the only time in the last three years Bird was a productive big leaguer. Otherwise he’s been hurt or bad or both.

Through nine Grapefruit League games, we know Bird is healthy. Or at least he looks healthy, anyway. That’s a start. The numbers are nice, especially since he’s driving the ball the other way with authority …

… but I’ve been fooled by Greg Bird crushing the ball in March too many times already. The most important thing is health. It all starts there. And right now, Bird looks healthy. There looks to be more bat speed than there was at any point last year and he’s been nibble at first base. Bird is in Tulowitzki territory at this point in that it’s fair to wonder how long this will last, because history suggests it won’t. For now it’s so far, so good. This is the start Bird needed and the start the Yankees wanted to see.

“I’ve just been enjoying it, to be honest,” said Bird to Ken Davidoff about his Spring Training. “That’s it. It’s still early. We’ve got a lot of camp left. Long season. I’m excited. I’m excited for the team we have.”

The last two bullpen spots aren’t really up for grabs

Ah yes, a good ol’ fake Spring Training competition. Fake, rigged, whatever you want to call it. The Yankees have been known to do this from time to time. Make it appear a roster spot(s) is up for grabs even though they made their decision a long time ago. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with it. Competition brings out the best in people and there’s no harm in keeping players motivated.

The Yankees currently have two open bullpen spots behind Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, and Adam Ottavino. Barring injury, those two spots are going to Luis Cessa and Tommy Kahnle. They’re both out of minor league options, so they can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers, and there’s no chance either would clear. The roster mechanics factor into the decision at least somewhat.

Aaron Boone talked up Kahnle over the weekend — “That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here … That was exciting to see,” he said to Brendan Kuty following Kahnle’s three up, three down, three strikeouts performance Friday — and said his fastball sat in the 95-97 mph range without much effort. That’s very encouraging for early March. Last season Kahnle’s fastball averaged 95.5 mph and he put everything he had into each pitch.

As for Cessa, the Yankees very clearly like him, and they will need a swingman/sixth starter type on Opening Day. He has allowed one run in five innings this spring — “I try not to think about (being out of options). The last two years I put too much pressure on myself to make the team. Right now I will do my job and pitch,” Cessa said to George King recently — but it’s five innings. Who cares? Still, Boone is talking Cessa up like he is Kahnle.

“We believe he can fill (the swingman) role really effectively. It’s important for him to come out and pitch well, but we really like where he’s at and how he’s throwing the ball right now. I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year,” said Boone to Erik Boland recently. “I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year” is definitely not something that gets said about a guy who is fighting for a roster spot.

Beyond Boone’s words, Kahnle’s and Cessa’s usage is telling. Kahnle is getting the veteran reliever treatment and pitching early in games, against actual big leaguers. Cessa is working as a starter and getting stretched out. So to is Domingo German, which is only smart, but he has an option remaining. Other bullpen hopefuls, specifically Stephen Tarpley, have been pitching later in Grapefruit League games. They’re further down on the priority list.

Injuries can always change things and keep in mind the Opening Day bullpen is just that, the Opening Day bullpen. The bullpen will change throughout the season. Right now, the Yankees are talking and acting like a team that has already decided Kahnle and Cessa are getting the final two bullpen spots. Kahnle is worth an extended look to see whether he can get back to his 2017 form, and Cessa being out of options gives him a leg up over German.

Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day

This is something I think we all knew would be the case coming into the camp, but now it is official. CC Sabathia is working his way back following his annual offseason knee cleanup and also his December angioplasty. His offseason program was interrupted and he reported to camp behind the other pitchers. He started throwing bullpen sessions last Friday. Unless the Yankees rush him, which they would never do, Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day.

“We haven’t mapped out a timetable yet, but I have plenty of time (to get ready for the season),” said the perpetually optimistic Sabathia to Bryan Hoch and George King recently. “After I got the clearance from the doctor to start working out, I started working out pretty heavy. I knew coming down here I would feel good. I felt fine playing catch, getting on the mound the other day felt great and today, so I’ll just keep progressing. I feel great.”

Assuming Sabathia starts the season on the injured list rather than simply serving his five-game suspension, the Yankees will need someone to make two spot starts in April, and this probably means both Cessa and German will make the Opening Day roster. One will make the spot starts and the other will be the long man in the bullpen. Once Sabathia is activated, German goes to Triple-A and Cessa moves into the bullpen full-time. Something like that.

As long as the weather cooperates the Yankees can very easily arrange their early season rotation in such a way that Sabathia’s replacement makes his first four starts against the Tigers, Orioles, White Sox, and Royals. The schedule works in their favor. The Yankees can give Sabathia as much time as he needs while running their sixth starter out there against some truly terrible teams. That’s the best case scenario given the circumstances, really.

Coming into camp, there was a tiny sliver of hope Sabathia would be ready for the start of the regular season. That is definitely not the case now. That question has been answered. Sabathia is only now starting his usual spring routine. The Yankees have to figure out who will fill in as the fifth starter in the early going (I’d put money on Cessa) and prepare accordingly.

CC Sabathia’s Final Season [2019 Season Preview]

March 1, 2019 by Mike

Two weeks ago CC Sabathia made official what we’ve known for a long time now: 2019 will be his final season. Sabathia will hang up his spikes after the season because he wants to spend time with his family, and also because he no longer wants to pitch on his troublesome right knee. He’s accomplished pretty much everything a player could dream of accomplishing in this game. It’s time to go home and be a full-time dad.

Retirement is still nine months away, however, and Sabathia still has one more season to grind through. He turns 39 in July and, last season, he threw 153 innings with a 3.65 ERA (4.16 FIP), which is rock solid for a No. 4 or 5 starter. In fact, Sabathia was one of only 30 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings with a 120 ERA+ last season. As has been the case since his transformation into a cutter pitcher, he was again among the league’s best at generating weak contact. Some numbers (min. 150 innings):

Average Exit Velocity
1. CC Sabathia: 84.4 mph
2. Zack Wheeler: 84.7 mph
3. Chris Sale: 84.7 mph
4. Noah Syndergaard: 84.9 mph
5. Kyle Hendricks: 85.2 mph
MLB Average: 87.7 mph

Soft Contact Rate
1. Chris Sale: 27.4%
2. Noah Syndergaard: 25.3%
3. Jacob deGrom: 25.2%
4. CC Sabathia: 25.1%
5. Max Scherzer: 23.9%
MLB Average: 18.1%

Sabathia’s rate stats the last three seasons are indistinguishable from Cole Hamels’, who is three and a half years younger than Sabathia but will also be paid $20M this year. (The Cubs picked up his option.) The Yankees re-signed Sabathia for one year and $8M. That’s approximately what the Athletics will pay Mike Fiers this year and what the Padres will pay Garrett Richards to spend the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Beyond the on-field performance, Sabathia is an important clubhouse leader and mentor, and he will spend his farewell season giving back to the community. He’s going to honor members of the Boys & Girls Club in each road city the Yankees visit — specifically, Sabathia’s going to bring them to the ballpark for a game and a meet-and-greet — because he said he wouldn’t be where he is now without the Boys & Girls Club growing up. Pretty cool. Let’s preview Sabathia’s final season.

CC Sabathia is good

I am compelled to point this out again. I’ve had readers emailing me and random fans reaching out to me on social media all winter saying re-signing Sabathia was a mistake. I guess their memory only goes back to the ALDS? Must be a curse. Anyway, Sabathia’s last three seasons:

2016: 179.2 innings and 110 ERA+
2017: 148.2 innings and 122 ERA+
2018: 153 innings and 120 ERA+

Does Sabathia pitch deep into games these days? No, he does not. But he averaged approximately one fewer out per start than J.A. Happ last year, and it’s not like the Yankees need him to pitch deep into games consistently anyway given their bullpen. Let him go through the lineup two times …

First Time Thru Lineup: .248/.314/.340 (89 OPS+) in 2018
Second Time Thru Lineup: .208/.294/.376 (84 OPS+) in 2018
Third Time Thru Lineup: .328/.376/.547 (135 OPS+) in 2018

… then turn it over to the bullpen from hell. Yes, Sabathia is 38 going on 39, and that makes him a risk for sudden performance decline, especially considering his offseason heart procedure. His arm is healthy though, and last year was year three of flustering hitters with cutters and changeups. This is not some “he made this adjustment in Spring Training and oh boy everything will be great now!” story.

The late career Sabathia experience features some starts in which he makes you wonder how he’ll ever get another out, some starts where he cruises through six innings on 80 pitches, and a bunch of starts where he’s pretty solid across five innings. He is the team’s fifth best starter — if the Yankees need him to be more than that, it’ll be because something’s gone wrong — and penciling him in for 140-ish league average innings is reasonable. CC Sabathia is Actually Good. Let’s not pretend this is Bartolo Colon throwing batting practice every five days for two years running now.

When will he be ready?

Sabathia is all but certain to begin the season on the disabled list. His heart procedure interrupted his offseason program and he was still behind when he reported to Spring Training. Sabathia will throw his first full bullpen session today, which puts him at least two and more like three weeks behind the other starters. He’s probably three weeks away from game action, and Opening Day is in four weeks, so do the math.

“We’ll keep him out probably first couple of weeks. Around March 1st, expect him to get back and start taking part in (fielding drills) and throwing his (bullpen sessions),” Aaron Boone said to George King two weeks ago. “He is doing a throwing program and conditioning program behind the scenes. With his knee we want to make sure physically he is in a really good spot before we start ramping him up.”

Also, don’t forget Sabathia has a suspension to serve. He was suspended five games for the “that’s for you, bitch” incident last year and we’ve heard nothing about the appeal. The appeal hearing has to happen sometime before Opening Day, though Sabathia essentially admitted he threw at Jesus Sucre intentionally, so there’s a chance it will not be reduced. The best case is maybe getting it reduced to four games instead of five. Point is, he has to serve the suspension. (The Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension, which isn’t a big deal because Sabathia is a starter and doesn’t play between starts anyway.)

Even with the typically heavy slate of early-season off-days, the Yankees will need to use a fifth starter no later than April 3rd, the sixth game of the season, and again no later than April 10th, the 12th game of the season. It seems to me the Yankees will put Sabathia on the injured list on Opening Day, let him sit out the ten days, then activate him and let him serve the suspension. The day the suspension ends, he starts.

No matter the order, suspension then injured list or injured list then suspension, the end result is Sabathia missing at least 16 days and 13 games, and the Yankees needing to use a spot starter twice. Boone has mentioned Luis Cessa making early season spot starts though I doubt that is set in stone. Should Cessa have a rough Grapefruit League season, it could easily be Domingo German or Jonathan Loaisiga making those spot starts instead.

Anyway, back to Sabathia. Three bullpen sessions and two live batting practice sessions would put Sabathia on track to face hitters in a simulated game sometime during the week of March 11th, likely later in the week. Assuming all goes well — not the safest assumption, but the Yankees will deal with any bumps in the road as they come — Sabathia would have enough time to make four spring* starts before making his regular season debut at the end of those 16 days.

* Sabathia has done most of his spring work in simulated games rather than Grapefruit League games in recent years and I assume that will again be the case. Of course the Yankees will want him to face opposing hitters in a competitive setting at some point, so it won’t all be simulated games. I’d bet on Sabathia making a minor league rehab start with High-A Tampa while on the injured list in April. Maybe even two rehab starts. We’ll see.

It would take a minor miracle at this point for Sabathia to be ready for Opening Day. I just can’t see it. The Yankees aren’t going to push him. They don’t need him to be ready on Opening Day either. The Yankees can align their early season rotation in such a way that the spot starter makes his two starts against the lowly Tigers and Orioles, which is about as preferable as it gets. Right now, Sabathia’s on track to return in mid-April, about two weeks into the season.

“I think that’s getting too far ahead of ourselves right now,” Boone said to George King recently when asked for Sabathia’s return date. “I think first things first, get him on the mound, throw his side, then we’ll see how he progresses and see where we’re at. We may have to iron out something with that at some point, but we’re not there yet. He is doing well. He’s getting the strength back. Getting a little bit better. His arm feels great. He feels good. So I think the momentum’s going the right way.”

History in the making

Sabathia is poised to reach several big career milestones this year. He is four wins away from becoming the 13th left-hander in history with 250 wins, and he has a decent shot at getting the ten wins he needs to become one of the ten winningest southpaws in baseball history. An individual win or a season’s worth of wins don’t tell us much. Across an entire career, they speak to longevity and effectiveness, two traits that define Sabathia.

Also, Sabathia is 14 strikeouts away from joining the 3,000-strikeout club. He’ll become only the 17th pitcher in history with 3,000 strikeouts and the third lefty. Here is the all-time lefty strikeout list:

Randy Johnson: 4,875
Steve Carlton: 4,136
CC Sabathia: 2,986
Mickey Lolich: 2,832
Frank Tanana: 2,773

Sabathia already holds the American League record for strikeouts by a left-hander. Soon he’ll become only the third lefty in the 3,000-strikeout club. Of the 16 pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts, 14 are in the Hall of Fame. Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling are the exceptions. Clemens will likely never get into the Hall of Fame. Schilling is on track to get into Cooperstown in a year or two.

As for the Yankees, Sabathia is three wins away from moving into the top ten on the franchise’s all-time wins list. He’s 141.1 innings away from moving into the top ten innings list and 185 strikeouts away from passing Ron Guidry and taking over sole possession of third place on the franchise strikeout list. That probably won’t happen, Sabathia isn’t a big strikeout pitcher anymore, but it’s not completely out of reach either.

We’ll no doubt talk more about Sabathia’s legacy after the season, once his playing career is over, but no matter what happens this year he is clearly one of the best starting pitchers in Yankees history, and he’ll deserves serious Hall of Fame consideration when the time comes. Joining the 3,000-strikeout club is always impressive and reaching 250 wins in this day and age means something. Sabathia should reach both milestones early this year.

* * *

Sabathia’s days as a workhorse ace have been over for more than a half-decade now, and if you’re expecting him to be anything more than the club’s fifth best starter, you’re expecting too much. Maybe he has a big 2008 Mike Mussina farewell season in him. That’d be cool. I’ll never forget Mussina saying he made the decision to retire before the season, and it allowed him to pitch with a clear head all year. Sabathia going out with a 2008 Mussina season and a ring would be an all-time great farewell season.

CC Sabathia announces retirement following 2019

February 16, 2019 by Mike

At a press conference in Tampa earlier today, CC Sabathia announced he will retire following the upcoming season, as expected. He’s been saying 2019 will be his final season on his R2C2 podcast since last summer and now it’s official. The big man is hanging up his spikes after the season.

“CC has been a great ambassador for our game, and we are proud that he has represented our organization for the past decade.” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement. “His competitive spirit is matched only by his devotion to family and his relentless philanthropic pursuits. CC has always been a pillar in our clubhouse, and we look forward to him further cementing his impressive legacy this season and contributing to our championship goals.”

Everyone from Derek Jeter to Andy Pettitte to Jorge Posada to Joe Girardi to A.J. Burnett to LeBron James to Fat Joe issued statements congratulating Sabathia. Here’s the release with their statements. Sabathia said his offseason heart scare had nothing to do with his decision to retire. He’d made up his mind before that and he’s ready to spend more time with his family. Sabathia also said he doesn’t want to coach after his playing days are over. He’s ready to relax.

“I had the pleasure of competing against CC and also with him, and have always considered him one of my favorite teammates,” Jeter said. “He rose to and exceeded the expectations and pressure, especially during his time with the Yankees, and was a key piece to the 2009 championship team. CC embodies what it means to be a professional athlete and has been an incredible ambassador for Baseball. He has an unwavering commitment to success on the field and an even greater desire to give back through his foundation work off the field.”

When asked about his legacy, Sabathia said he wanted to be remembered as a good teammate more than anything, and I don’t think he has to worry about that. Just about the entire team attended the press conference, even the position players who haven’t reported to Spring Training yet, as did members of coaching staff, front office, and ownership group. Sabathia’s wife and three of their four kids were there as well.

As part of his farewell season Sabathia announced he will honor members of the Boys & Girls Club in each road city the Yankees play throughout the year. He said he wouldn’t be where he is without the Boys & Girls Club and he wants to give back. I’m sure CC will receive some gifts like we’ve seen with other respected veterans in their farewell seasons. He’s making sure he does some giving of his own in his final season as well. That’s just who he is.

Sabathia turns 39 in July and is entering his 19th big league season overall and his 11th with the Yankees. He signed with the team as a free agent in December 2008 and, at the time, his seven-year, $161M contract was the richest pitching contract in baseball history. Sabathia rewarded the Yankees with a World Series championship in the first season of that contract. It was money very well spent.

It wasn’t always smooth sailing, of course. Sabathia struggled with velocity loss from 2013-15 before reinventing himself as a cutter pitcher late in his career. He’s pitched with right knee problems for years and he also left the Yankees to receive treatment for alcohol addiction right before the 2015 postseason. Sabathia has had to overcome a lot, especially late in his career. He’s always been a ferocious competitor who left everything he had on the field.

At the moment Sabathia is four wins away from 250 and 14 strikeouts away from 3,000. He’ll join Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton as the only lefties in the 3,000-strikeout club — Sabathia is already the all-time American League leader in strikeouts by a lefty — and, when the time comes, he’ll have a great case for the Hall of Fame. Sabathia said he hasn’t thought much about that yet though.

Sabathia is currently fourth on the franchise strikeout list (1,593), 11th in wins (129), 12th in starts (284), and 12th in pitching WAR (+29.7). Two more wins moves him into the franchise’s top ten. Also, he has a career 3.45 ERA in 19 postseason games (18 starts) in pinstripes. Sabathia is one of the best pitchers in Yankees history and he should have a place in Monument Park when it’s all said and done. Send him out with another ring, Yankees.

Eight storylines to follow as the Yankees begin Spring Training

February 14, 2019 by Mike

Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday and it didn’t take long for the Yankees to suffer their first injury of the spring. Pitching prospect Mike King will miss at least three weeks with an elbow issue. Baseball always has a way of keeping you humble. Excited Spring Training has started? Well you won’t be seeing this pitching prospect this spring, sorry. So it goes.

Position players report Monday and the Yankees open their Grapefruit League season next Saturday. These next ten days are a grind. Baseball is happening and not happening at the same time. We waited all winter for Spring Training to begin and now we have to wait a little longer for actual baseball games, and even then the games are meaningless. It’s baseball though, and baseball is better than no baseball.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is a good time to break down some key Yankees storylines for the coming weeks. Players to watch, trends to track, that sorta thing. Here are eight storylines to watch this spring, listed in no particular order.

Seriously, what about Harper and Machado?

Look, I’m as sick of writing about them as you are of hearing about them, but as long as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, we have to talk about them. The stunningly stupid prevailing logic says MLB teams all have smart front offices now and they’ve realized paying top dollar for ~~aging past prime players~~ elite prime-aged talent is a bad idea. Did you know ten teams have a sub-$100M payroll? In 2019? Crazy.

Anyway, the Yankees only half-heartedly pursued Machado over the winter and they weren’t connected to Harper at all. “I’m surprised you’re still asking,” said Brian Cashman when asked about possibly signing Harper during the Winter Meetings. The thing is, the longer those two sit in free agency, the greater the chances the Yankees swoop in to sign one of ’em. The temptation has to be there, and, at this point, I have to think a discount is possible.

It feels like everyone I talk to wants Machado and Harper to sign just to get it over with already. We’re sick of hearing about them and, frankly, it’s embarrassing for baseball that these two are unemployed as camp opens. It looks bad. Hopefully the Yankees can sign either Machado or Harper. That would be preferable but weeks ago I accepted they’re probably going elsewhere. Until they sign though, their situation has to be monitored.

Tulowitzki’s comeback attempt

The Good: Troy Tulowitzki has fully recovered from last year’s dual heel surgeries and is as healthy as he’s been at any point in the last couple years, plus he is basically free, so the Yankees could easily cut him loose should he not get the job done. The Bad: The Yankees seem very committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop and I’m not sure they would cut him loose even if his production warrants it.

“The plan right now is to get Troy ready to play shortstop. That’s where he’ll focus,” Aaron Boone said yesterday. “As the weeks — as the months — unfold we’ll adjust if we need to. We’re planning on him playing shortstop and focusing solely there.”

“We were all in. He really looked athletic (during his workout), it looked like he had that bounce back in his step. We feel there is a lot of potential upside here,” said Cashman last month. I totally get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. It’s a low-risk contract and, as a former star caliber player, there’s always a chance he has a late-career dead cat bounce season. Think Eric Chavez in 2012. He’s worth a look with Didi Gregorius out.

Tulowitzki has not played since July 2017 and you kinda have to expect some rust after that. He has been working out all winter — Tulowitzki has been in Tampa working out at the minor league complex for a few days now even though position players aren’t due to report until Monday — but there’s no substitute for game action. Those first few live pitches and ground balls might speed up on him a little bit, you know?

Spring Training performance is not very predictive and that will be especially true in Tulowitzki’s case. Certainly it would be great to see him knock the snot out of the ball and vacuum up everything at shortstop for a few weeks. Even then, we won’t know how long it’ll last because he’s had so many injury problems throughout his career. For all intents and purposes, we’re going into camp with no idea what to expect from Tulowitzki. We’ll learn as we go.

Andujar’s defense

“Entirely at third,” Boone came out and said yesterday when asked where Miguel Andujar will play going forward. “That said, there may be a day or two that we pick to have him on a back field just getting some first base in — which we may do with a (Austin) Romine or a Gary (Sanchez) — pick a day just to keep some versatile options when you get into a little bit of a bind. His game work will be, I’ll say pretty much entirely at third base.”

Last season Andujar was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball (according to DRS) and the Yankees sent him into the offseason with a plan to improve what he does before the pitch is thrown. They want him to get in better position to react and make plays, basically. Andujar’s hands and throwing arm are pretty good! There are times he stumbles over his own feet though, and he rushes his throws because he double-clutches so often.

I have no illusions of Andujar becoming an above-average defender. He is a tireless worker and I don’t doubt that he’ll try to improve. It’s just that going from that bad to that good is unlikely. Has anyone else done it? Gone from being one of the worst defenders in baseball, statistically, to being legitimately above-average? I can’t think of anyone. My hopes are modest. Andujar becomes an average defender who makes routine plays look routine. That’s all I’m asking.

I think two things will happen this spring: One, any Andujar misplay will be magnified, and two, he’ll look better than expected at third base because we’ve kinda lost perspective about him as a defender after spending all winter talking about how bad he defensively. Pre-pitch setup is not something we’ll be able to evaluate in Spring Training. At least not on television. Clearly though, Andujar’s defense is something to monitor throughout camp.

“I feel like he’s in a really good place defensively,” Boone added. “There’s some things that we’ve had him work on defensively that I think have really taken hold with him. And I think he’s had a great winter of work — I think all of you that have been around and have seen the work ethic, that’s reared its head in the winter — I feel that he’s another guy that comes into Spring Training in a really good place.”

Sabathia’s farewell

On Saturday, CC Sabathia will make official what we’ve known for a long time now: 2019 will be his final season. Sabathia will hold a press conference (with his family in attendance) to formally announce his retirement, and mostly take questions because no one has had a chance to ask him about it. Man I hope he doesn’t cry during the press conference. Not sure I could handle seeing the big guy in tears.

Once the press conference is over with, it’ll be time to get down to business. Sabathia had his usual offseason knee cleanup procedure and also heart surgery in December, and Boone said yesterday the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia early in camp. So much so that his first bullpen session could be a few weeks away, which would seem to put his Opening Day roster status in question.

Sabathia is fine, physically. It’s just that the heart procedure interrupted his offseason work and put him behind schedule, and he’s still catching up. The Yankees take it very easy on Sabathia in Spring Training anyway — he usually pitches in simulated games rather than Grapefruit League games — so it’ll be tough to know exactly how far behind schedule he is. He’s a difficult guy to track usually because we rarely see him in games.

If Sabathia has to start the season on the injured list, so be it. Won’t be the only time the Yankees have to use one of their depth starters this year. The larger point is this is it for Sabathia, and maybe Brett Gardner as well, the final two links to the 2009 World Series team. It’s one thing when the veterans assume reduced roles. It’s another when they’re gone and the changing of the guard is complete.

How is the rehab group doing?

The list of rehabbing Yankees is sneaky long. Sabathia did not suffer a baseball injury but he will be playing catch up in Spring Training. Tulowitzki has technically completed his heel surgery rehab but is something of an unknown, physically. Clint Frazier is in a similar spot following his concussion and post-concussion migraines. Here are some of the other rehabbing Yankees and their statuses:

Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery): He won’t report with position players Monday and will instead stay home in Arizona for a few more weeks. Weird, man.
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery): Started a throwing program last week and is a few weeks away from swinging a bat two-handed. The Yankees refuse to give a firm timetable for his return.
Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery): No update, probably because he’s not a big name player.
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery): Expected to throw off a mound next month and rejoin the Yankees sometime after the All-Star break.
Gary Sanchez (shoulder surgery): He is hitting and catching, and will be held back early in Grapefruit League play. Sanchez will be ready for Opening Day.

We won’t see Gregorius or Montgomery participate in Grapefruit League games at all this spring given where they are in their rehab. The same is probably true with Ellsbury, and Heller as well. We’ll see Sanchez on the field and be able to track his progress ourselves. The other guys? No luck. The Yankees will give us updates when they’re deemed necessary and we’ll continue to guesstimate Sir Didi’s return date and Ellsbury’s future.

“I hate giving a timeline because we’ll let the thing play out,” said Boone when asked about Gregorius yesterday. “I think our original was anywhere from 2-4 months maybe into the season. He certainly seems at least on that pace. He’s in really good shape and progressing the way he should be so we’re optimistic that he’s going to play hopefully a significant amount of the season for us.”

LeMahieu’s transition to utility infielder

It has been nearly five years since DJ LeMahieu played a position other than second base. He played one inning at first base in an emergency situation on June 28th, 2014, and he didn’t even have to make a play. A reliever struck out the side in that inning. LeMahieu has played second base exclusively since that date and that includes Spring Training. The Rockies never worked him out anywhere else.

The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as a super utility guy — Boone said yesterday the plan is to give Tulowitzki regular rest in April in an effort to keep him healthy, which equals playing time for LeMahieu — and gosh, that always makes me nervous, moving a full-time player into a part-time role. It sounds great, bringing in a regular for a bench role, but it can be a difficult adjustment.

I have no idea how LeMahieu will handle it offensively. Not only is he leaving Coors Field, but he’s also going not going to get as many at-bats as usual. Defensively, I think he’ll be fine. He’s a legitimate Gold Glove guy at second base. His range, his hands, his arm, and his instincts are all good, so it’s not like the Yankees are asking a guy short on defensive tools to move around. I see four ways for LeMahieu to get playing time:

Start at second base on days Tulowitzki sits (with Gleyber Torres at short).
Start at first base when Luke Voit sits (or Greg Bird sits, I guess).
Replace Andujar in the late innings pretty much every game.
Play third whenever Sabathia (and J.A. Happ?) starts to handle all the pulled grounders by righties.

LeMahieu has the tools to play pretty much anywhere on the infield. He just hasn’t played anywhere other than second base in a few years now, so he’s going to spend a lot time working out at first and third bases this spring. Probably more than he does at second. My guess is LeMahieu winds up playing more than expected this season, maybe as many as 500 plate appearances, but this spring will be about adjusted to life as a glorified utility guy.

The few position battles

“Hopefully, if things play out from a health standpoint in Spring Training, there will be very few decisions that we have to make,” said Boone yesterday, and he’s right. At the moment the Yankees are poised to have very few position battles in Spring Training. Two bullpen spots and a bench spot. That’s pretty much it. This is the projected 25-man Opening Day roster right now:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	Luis Severino	CL Aroldis Chapman
	2B Gleyber Torres	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	SU Dellin Betances
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	RF Aaron Judge	Masahiro Tanaka	SU Zach Britton
INJURED LIST	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	J.A. Happ	SU Adam Ottavino
Didi Gregorius			CC Sabathia	MR Chad Green
Ben Heller	BENCH			MR Jonathan Holder
Jordan Montgomery	C Austin Romine	???		???
Jacoby Ellsbury	IF DJ LeMahieu			???

The rotation order and the batting order will be whatever they end up being. Those are 22 of their 25 Opening Day roster names though. There is one open bench spot and two open bullpen spots. Should Sabathia have to begin the season on the injured list, then there will be a competition for the fifth starter’s spot as well. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees only have to figure out the 23rd, 24th, and 25th men on their roster.

With Ellsbury out of the picture, the final bench spot comes down to Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and Tyler Wade. There’s a small army of relievers up for those bullpen roles. Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Joe Harvey, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley, so on and so forth. Cessa and Kahnle are out of minor league options and that might give them a leg up on the competition — Boone hinted that Cessa is headed for a bullpen role yesterday — but it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Spring Training competitions are kinda weird. First and foremost, spring performance is not very predictive, and yet teams base roster decisions on spring performance all the time. We see it every year. Bird could hit .350/.450/.750 during Grapefruit League play and it wouldn’t tell us a thing about him going forward, but it would probably land him on the Opening Day roster. Hard to ignore numbers like that, you know?

And secondly, Spring Training competitions don’t end on Opening Day. Whoever wins the final bullpen spot better pitch well during the regular season, otherwise the Yanks will swap them out with someone else. Winning a spring position battle is the easy part. Keeping the job is where it gets difficult. The Yankees have a few roster decisions to make in camp. Thankfully nothing major. And it’s entirely possible those roster decisions could be upended a few weeks into the regular season. Such is life.

Farquhar’s comeback attempt

Last, but certainly not least, the Yankees have a feel-good story in camp in Danny Farquhar. I honestly don’t think he has much of a chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but he’s healthy, and that’s all that matters. Farquhar suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage last April when a brain aneurysm ruptured. He collapsed in the dugout while with the White Sox and had to be rushed to the hospital, where he remained for three weeks.

Farquhar’s recovery is complete and he will be a fully participant in Spring Training — his first spring bullpen session is scheduled for tomorrow — which is wonderful news. Maybe he won’t make the roster and instead go to Triple-A, or opt out of his contract and sign with a team willing to put him on their Opening Day roster. Either way, I’m glad Farquhar recovered and able to resume his career, and I think it’s pretty cool he’ll do it with the Yankees.

Feb. 13th Spring Training Notes: Sabathia, Ellsbury, Severino, Montgomery, Diehl, Stephan

February 13, 2019 by Mike

It was cloudy and rainy in Florida today but I don’t care. Baseball is back. The Yankees opened Spring Training today and Aaron Boone held his annual start-of-spring press conference (video above). More questions were asked about Manny Machado (two) than Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres combined (zero).

“There’s no question, we’ll embrace (the expectations),” Boone said. “I think everyone that’s been here a while — and certainly the new guys coming in — I think understand what goes along with having the kind of club we potentially have, and being within this organization that the expectations are great. We welcome that.”

Here are some grainy cell phone videos of guys playing catch between rain drops. Hey, it beats not watching grainy Spring Training videos, doesn’t it? Anyway, here are some photos from today and here are the day’s notes:

CC Sabathia has a press conference scheduled for Saturday. He’s going to officially announce he’s retiring following the 2019 season, which is no surprise. Sabathia has been saying this will be his final season since last summer. Also, Boone said the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia this spring following his offseason knee and heart surgeries. No surprise there.
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) will stay home in Arizona for a few weeks and not report to camp with position players on Monday. His offseason rehab work was slowed by plantar fasciitis. This is kinda weird. Usually teams want rehabbing players in camp so they can, you know, help them rehab. Anyway, Ellsbury won’t be ready for Opening Day. Congrats to the Steinbrenners for getting more of that sweet insurance money.
Jordan Montgomery is right on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab. He is currently making 50 throws at 90 feet and has been doing that for a few weeks now. Montgomery will start throwing off a mound next month and he is on track to return after the All-Star break. “I have my sights set on that,” he said. [Bryan Hoch, Pete Caldera]
Luis Severino admitted he tired down the stretch last year and changed his offseason diet and training program to compensate. He dropped 12-15 pounds and focused more on stamina and cardio than weight training. “It’s not easy. I really hate eating vegetables,” he joked. Severino came to camp noticeably bulkier the last two years, but there is such a thing as too much muscle. [Coley Harvey, James Wagner, Meredith Marakovits]
This year’s guest instructors: Carlos Beltran, Ron Guidry, Reggie Jackson, Hideki Matsui, Tino Martinez, Lee Mazzilli, Stump Merrill, Andy Pettitte, Willie Randolph, Mariano Rivera, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Swisher, and Bernie Williams. The Yankees hired Beltran as a special assistant over the winter and Rivera recently said he’ll start working with the team’s young pitchers. I’d bet on Alex Rodriguez showing up to camp at some point as well. Jorge Posada recently joined Derek Jeter and the Marlins as a special advisor, so don’t expect to see him in camp. [Coley Harvey]
The Yankees have invited lefty Phil Diehl and righty Trevor Stephan to Spring Training, the team announced. Stephan gets an invite after all. The Yankees now have 23 non-roster invitees and 63 total players in big league camp. Here’s some video of Diehl and Stephan.
Some new uniform numbers: Adam Ottavino (No. 0), Troy Tulowitzki (No. 12), Tyler Wade (No. 14, had been No. 12), DJ LeMahieu (No. 26), and James Paxton (No. 65). J.A. Happ and Zack Britton are keeping No. 34 and No. 53, respectively. No. 13 and No. 21 were not issued (again).
In case you missed it earlier, Mike King has been shut down three weeks with a stress reaction in his elbow. Baseball is always quick to smack away that first day of Spring Training excitement.

Pitchers and catchers have their first official workout tomorrow. Position players will report Monday and the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game one week from Saturday. We have to wait just a little longer until real live baseball returns.

The Yankees and the Myth of the Onerous Long-Term Contract

February 2, 2019 by Bobby Montano

The time for bad Spring Training photos is almost upon us, but 16 teams have not yet signed a free agent. Of those that have, 23 have not signed a player to a contract longer than two years—only 10 out of 77 players who have inked a deal this offseason are guaranteed a job after the 2020 season. One common rationale for this phenomenon is that teams are wising up after decades of handing out long-term deals. That those deals are onerous for teams has become conventional in many baseball circles, but there’s only one small problem with that line of thinking: it’s completely wrong.

The Yankees are a useful case study here: They’re the richest franchise in the sport and have been at the center of some of the game’s richest contracts. It’s worth going through the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history (all of which come after 2001) and examining how each of those contracts actually worked out for the Bombers. Doing so puts to rest the idea that the Yankees have somehow suffered as a result of big spending.

7. Jason Giambi (7 years, $120 million)

The Yankees signed Jason Giambi after their 2001 World Series defeat—having bested Giambi’s Oakland A’s in consecutive ALDS—to replace the beloved Tino Martinez at first base. Giambi’s 7-year, $120 million contract is the 55^th largest of all-time and he more than lived up to his end of the bargain.

Across his seven years in pinstripes, the Giambino slugged .260/.404/521 (143 OPS+) with 209 home runs and 619 walks in 3,693 plate appearances. That he missed roughly half of the year with injury in both 2004 and 2008 limits his overall WAR total (22.1 by Baseball-Reference), but he was a 4 win player per 650 AB with the Yankees. Giambi was a lot more productive than he gets remembered for.

His early-season walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 14^th inning with the Yankees down 3 against the Minnesota Twins and two home runs off Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS are two of his more memorable moments. The Yankees never won a World Series while he was in town, so he is often forgotten among recent Yankee greats, but Giambi was a middle-of-the-order force on a team that went 680-455 (.599 winning percentage) during his tenure in the Bronx.

It’s safe to say that Giambi was worth every penny.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153 million)

Jacoby Ellsbury penned a 7-year, $153 million deal with the Yanks fresh off a World Series victory with the rival Red Sox in 2013. He was only the 18^th player in MLB history to receive a contract worth over $150 million, and he was supposed to inject life into a dormant Yanks offense. But this one, as we all know, has not gone according to plan.

Ellsbury has missed considerable time due to injury and has been mostly bad when healthy. His .264/.330/.386 (95 OPS+) line with the New York is well-below what the Yankees hoped for, and he has only been worth 9 wins in pinstripes.

But it’s important to remember that Ellsbury was often injured and only infrequently an above-average hitter for Boston. Although the argument at the time was that speedy outfielders tended to have softer declines than many of their peers, it’s clear that he was never the player the Yanks expected. His 8-win MVP-runner-up 2011 season with Boston was clearly an outlier at the time and looks even more so now—this particular contract speaks more to an organizational failure by the Yankees than it does Ellsbury.

5. Masahiro Tanaka (7 years, $155 million + $20 million posting fee)

The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a 7-year, $155 million contract just weeks after locking up Ellsbury in a series of moves that was meant to revitalize an aging, stale Yanks group. Tanaka, though, has clearly done his part at the top of the rotation.

Despite a dance with Tommy John, Tanaka has been a reliably above-average arm for the Yanks. He owns a 64-34 (.653) record, posting a 3.59 ERA (118 ERA+) with 9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 824.1 innings pitched (15.6 bWAR) since the start of 2014. He may seemingly always give up a home run, but that should not detract from the fact that the Yankees are lucky to have him take the mound every five days.

A fierce competitor, Tanaka has been lockdown in October, with a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings pitched. His 7 shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians in Game 3 of the 2017 ALDS quite literally saved the season, he was lockdown in both his ALCS starts against the Houston Astros, and he was the only Yankee to win a postseason game this year against Boston. If it’s a big game, you feel comfortable with Tanaka on the mound—and it’s clear that the Yankees shouldn’t regret his deal.

4. CC Sabathia (7 years, $160 million)

The Yankees gave Sabathia a 7-year, $160 million contract following their disappointing 2008 campaign and Sabathia’s legendary one, and he would eventually leveraged an opt-out into what amounted to a 2-year extension following 2011. CC was expected to be the type of ace to carry the Yanks back to the promised land. He did just that in his first try, and he has become one of the most beloved Yankees of the current generation in the process.

CC owns a 129-80 (.617) record with the Yanks, powered by a 3.74 ERA (115 ERA+) in 1,810.2 innings pitched. He’s been worth 30 bWAR, and only 9 pitchers in Yankee history will have won more games in pinstripes than CC when all is said and done.

I wrote all about CC Sabathia last week, so I’ve said about all I can say about him, but one thing is clear: the Yankees absolutely do not regret allowing him to call the Bronx home for final 11 seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

3. Mark Teixeira (8 years, $180 million)

Teixeira’s shocking 8-year, $180 million contract came on a day when most of us expected him to sign with the Red Sox. Instead, the Yanks swooped in and found Jason Giambi’s replacement. Teixeira was a 3-win player per 650 ABs across his 8 years in pinstripes but saw his final few years plagued by frequent injury.

Still, Teixeira hit .248/.343/.479 (118 OPS+) with 206 home runs across 3,522 plate appearances with New York, averaging 35 home runs every 162 games. Teixeira was also a sterling defender at first base, thrice winning the Gold Glove in pinstripes.

His huge 2009 campaign, in which he slugged .292/.383/.565 (141 OPS+) with 39 home runs, netted him 2^nd place in the AL MVP voting, and his 11^th inning walk-off home run against the Twins in Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS was a key moment in the Yanks’ World Series run. Teixeira made the Yankees better for the better part of 8 years, and he was an instrumental player on a 103-win championship team. Big free agent signings are supposed to help you win World Series, and Teixeira did just that. The Yankees should not regret this one either.

2. Derek Jeter (10 years, $189 million)

Derek Jeter inked his first major deal following the 2001 campaign, receiving almost $200 million across 10 years. This one’s easy: a first ballot Hall of Famer and all-time great Yankee, there is no doubt that the Jeter deal made the Yankees a better team.

Across the terms of this contract, Jeter hit .308/.378/.436 (115 OPS+) with 304 doubles and 141 home runs, overall totaling 37.5 bWAR. Jeter was a part of too many big Yankee moments to name, but his 3,000 hit off David Price and July 1, 2004 catch against Boston in which he flew into the stands stick out as two of his top moments over this deal. Jeter is one of the best players in baseball history, in the conversation for the best shortstop ever, and the Yankees certainly don’t regret this deal in the slightest.

1. Alex Rodriguez (Two 10-year contracts)

Alex Rodriguez, were it not for Barry Bonds, might just be the most controversial baseball player in league history. Under constant media scrutiny over his love life, relationship with the Yankee captain and former friend Derek Jeter, steroid usage and at-times contentious relationship with the league and organization, A-Rod divided baseball (and Yankee fans) as nobody else could. But amid the noise, one thing is clear: Rodriguez was worth the money.

A-Rod signed two major deals in his career, and the Yankees were at the center of both. For the purposes of this exercise, let’s analyze the two separately.

10-year, $252 million contract (Offered by the Texas Rangers, Yankee from 2004-07)

By far the largest contract ever handed out at the time, the first A-Rod deal is often pointed to as an example of big contracts gone awry. That is absurd. I repeat: that is absurd.

A-Rod was simply nothing less than one of the most productive baseball players in baseball history across his first 10-year deal, slugging .304/.400/.591 (154 OPS+) with 329 home runs, 3 MVPs, 7 ASGs and 56.4 bWAR. (For perspective, Bernie Williams was worth 49 bWAR in his entire career.) If anything, this deal was a bargain for both Texas and New York.

For the Yankees, his three-home run, 10 RBI performance against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and towering walk-off grand slam against the Indians as the Yanks scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 9^th (all with two outs) stand out as signature moments during this stretch.

Although the Yankees only rostered Rodriguez on this deal for the 2004-7 campaigns, he managed to win 2 MVPs and smash 173 home runs in four years. He was blamed for the Yanks’ failure to win the World Series and often caught the ire of fans, but it’s clear that expecting more (on-the-field, anyway) from Alex Rodriguez was unrealistic. He was as good as you can be.

10-year, $275 million contract (Offered by Yankees following A-Rod’s 2007 opt-out)

The second A-Rod deal, on the other hand, is much more complicated. It was the last time we saw Hank Steinbrenner, and this mega-deal came even as Brian Cashman publicly said the organization would let Rodriguez walk if he opted out. Instead, A-Rod opted out during the final game of the 2007 World Series to much outcry, and the Yankees re-signed him anyway. While A-Rod wasn’t the same player at the end of this deal, he was comfortably above-average the whole time. Not to mention, the Yanks wouldn’t have won the 2009 World Series without him, and they’d never have been able to replace him.

The Yankees were scuffling a bit amid huge expectations in April of 2009, and the Yanks were without their injured (and recently scandalized) All-Star third baseman. When he returned in early May, he slugged a three-run home run in Camden Yards in his first at-bat and the Yankees never looked back. A-Rod hit 30 home runs and drove in 100 runs despite missing over a month, and was absolutely an essential component of the Yankees postseason run.

His 2-run, game-tying home run off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 9^th of Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS is one of the defining moments of that era, but he also hit the go-ahead home run in Game 3, hit another game-tying home run in extra innings in the Game 2 of the ALDS and had the go-ahead hit in the top of the 9th inning of Game 4 of the World Series to give the Yanks a 3-1 lead. Without A-Rod, there’s no 2009 title. It’s that simple.

Despite the fact that the second contract was scandalized by more steroid allegations, a lawsuit against the Yankees, and a full-season suspension, A-Rod actually hit .269/.359/.486 (123 OPS+) with 178 home runs over those final years, and had one final great campaign in 2015. Even during his down years, A-Rod was better than most other players in the league. Given his repaired relationship with the Yankees, it’s fair to say that the team and player have both moved on from any hostility—and fans should too.

Alex Rodriguez is the recipient of two of the most misunderstood contracts of all-time from a baseball perspective, and it’s time we all acknowledge a simple fact: he was well worth the money.

Special Mention: Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million)

Giancarlo Stanton received a 13-year, $325 million contract from the Miami Marlins in 2014, with the Yankees acquiring him following the 2017 campaign. It’s too early to say whether or not this deal will work out for New York, but the early indications are a resounding yes.

Across the first four years of the deal, Stanton has hit .265/.350/.557 (143 OPS+) and has hit 151 home runs. Even his relatively down year last year with the Yanks was extremely productive, and he figures to be a major force in the middle of the Yankee lineup for at least two more years, depending on whether or not he exercises his opt-out following the 2020 season (if I were him, I would not). More to come on this one, but if the recent history of large NYY contracts is any indication, they won’t regret this at all.

Conclusions

What this shows us is that the big, onerous contract that we hear so much about is largely a strawman: it barely exists. Of the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history, only one of them (Ellsbury) is a true albatross, and again, that speaks more to a failure by the Yankees than it reflects poorly on Ellsbury. He’s the same player he always was. In other words, 6 out of 7 (85%) have significantly improved the Yankees and made them a better team.

But there’s another key point buried in here. Most of these deals came in relatively close proximity to one another. The Yankees signed Giambi one year after giving Jeter his 10-year deal; they added Teixeira and Sabathia in the same offseason; they signed Tanaka and Ellsbury in the same offseason; they added Stanton despite having Ellsbury’s and Tanaka’s deals on the books, underscoring how the deal isn’t prohibitive at all. This tells us that fears that the Yankees cannot offer another long-term mega deal (or two!) if they want to re-sign their own developed core are unfounded. (Granted, the data has always shown that it was unfounded.)

Despite what we often year about large contracts and long-term financial obligations, the reality is that the Yankees simply haven’t suffered, financially or on-the-field, as a result of any of their major deals in the last 20 years. If anything, those deals are a major reason why the Yankees have not had a losing season since 1992—and the Yankees, and their fans, would be wise to remember that.

Appreciate CC Sabathia in his Final Year

January 26, 2019 by Bobby Montano

Let’s get one more for the big fella. (Elsa/Getty)

Something felt off the day the Yankees hosted the Houston Astros in the Bronx for the 2015 Wild Card Game. Even before the Yanks were shut out by Dallas Keuchel in a masterful 3 hit performance, the atmosphere was subdued. That the Yankees were led by Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann surely didn’t help; this wasn’t a team, like the opposing Astros, that felt like its best days were yet to come. But there was something else: a day earlier, CC Sabathia had checked himself into rehab for alcohol abuse.

It’s hard to remember whether it felt like we’d truly seen the last of CC, but it certainly felt like CC’s days as an effective Major League starting pitcher were behind him. In the three seasons prior, he’d pitched only 424.1 innings and missed most of 2014 with an injury. What we saw when he was on the mound looked nothing like the CC Sabathia we’d been accustomed to seeing: with reduced velocity and diminished stuff, he had a 4.81 ERA (83 ERA+), a WHIP of 1.4 and was worth only 0.6 bWAR.

That Sabathia had a 2.17 ERA over his final 5 starts went mostly unnoticed, but as Jay Jaffe noted in an astute column in May, this was the beginning of a late-career renaissance for the big lefty. He had taken a lesson from Andy Pettitte, another lefty who revitalized his career in its final days, and began utilizing a cut fastball. When Sabathia returned in 2016, he had not only begun the process of overcoming his alcoholism—he returned as a pitcher with a second wind.

Across 481.1 innings since Opening Day 2016, Sabathia has a 3.76 ERA (117 ERA+), a figure which has improved with each season, and has been worth 8.3 bWAR. That success is powered by late movement and pinpoint control that minimizes the quality of contact against him. In 2018, batters only squared up on CC 28.5% of the time, good for 8^th in the league; by contrast, he induced soft contact 25.1% of the time, which ranked 4^th. No pitcher induced softer contact, as batters averaged only 84.4 mph off when they made contact. Few, if any, 5^th starters are more effective.

His success comes even as the quality of his repertoire has diminished. His average fastball velocity in 2018 was just under 92 mph, a significant decline from over 95 mph in 2009—a big reason why he throws the pitch only 2% of the time compared to nearly half of the time a decade ago (he now uses the cutter roughly 50% of the time). Only the most dedicated and talented are capable of reinventing themselves as a completely new version of themselves: remember, he’d never thrown a cutter before 2016.

As unlikely as such a renaissance may have seemed in 2015, there were always signs that CC would be up to the task. When the Yankees signed him 11 years ago, he was one of baseball’s most feared pitchers, with an overpowering fastball and intimidating lefty physique. He was fresh off a legendary post-deadline performance with the Milwaukee Brewers, and inked a 7 year, $161 million contract to christen the new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were short on pitching, had been bounced in the ALDS 3 of the previous 4 seasons (missing the postseason in the other), and needed an ace to rescue them. CC was tasked with being the guy to do it.

He somehow lived up to those expectations. In his first 4 seasons in pinstripes (2009-12), he boasted a 3.22 ERA (135 ERA+) in 905 innings pitched, good for 20.7 bWAR. His 1.98 ERA in the 2009 postseason, which earned him ALCS MVP honors, helped carry the Yankees to their 27^th championship. Over those 4 years, he finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting 3 times and made 3 All-Star Games. He was a dominating pitcher in the height of his prime—a sight the Yankees and their fans hadn’t seen in quite some time.

That’s a big reason why, I suspect, watching CC Sabathia pitch is so much fun these days. Watching him induce slow grounder after slow grounder isn’t the same as watching him overpower David Ortiz, of course, but in his new, deliberate methods there are echoes of the flame-throwing ace of yesterday.

CC approaches several career milestones as he prepares for what will be his final year as a big leaguer. With three more wins, CC will have won more games as a Yankee than any pitcher save 9 others. Four more wins and he reaches 250, which, in the age of the almighty bullpen, is no small achievement. 14 more strikeouts and he will be the 17^th pitcher in MLB history (and only the 3^rd lefty) to reach the 3,000 career strikeout mark.

As he reaches these significant figures, all of which should come fairly early in the year barring significant injury, we will be asked to debate his Hall of Fame credentials (I’d vote for him, but he is a close case), but those questions can wait for 6 more years. Rather than pondering his future legacy, we should instead appreciate his final season and be thankful it will come in pinstripes.

After all, this was the man who brought the Yankees back to the promised land on his first try, seeming at home alongside Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. He stuck it out through the team’s less successful days, hit rock-bottom in his personal life and rebounded into an unrecognizable but still effective crafty lefty—all while radiating the affable, lovable aura that has made him a clubhouse leader and mentor to the next generation of Yankee stars.

We should be sure to enjoy his last campaign—for we will see countless other pitchers don the pinstripes, but there will only ever be one CC Sabathia.