Fan Confidence Poll: December 12th, 2011

Open Thread: Mike Stanton
Can A-Rod return to the .500 SLG plateau?

2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS

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Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Open Thread: Mike Stanton
Can A-Rod return to the .500 SLG plateau?
  • Cris Pengiucci

    In the early voting (just 13 so far, SSS, I know) more 7’s than 8’s. I considered lowering my vote as well, die to the new CBA. This will take some adjusting in the way the Yankees do business, but I think they’ve got the management team to do it. Still looks to me like they’re in a good position going forward and they currently have a very solid farm system to support the ML team should they not make a big splash with Darvish or a trade for a SP.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      die due to the new CBA

    • Plank

      Good point on the new CBA. If every team spends the maximum amount they are allowed to spend and every team has a minimum level of competency, the Yankees have lost their advantage. If they are serious about not spending money for the next few years, they won’t be able to stay at the head of the pack with free agents, IFAs, or draft picks.

    • Ted Nelson

      Could impact their overall future, but the CBA’s impacts should still be at least 4 or 5 years away. For me an intangible impact 5 years away doesn’t weigh in too much.

      By then they should/could have had a lot of roster turnover, and if they use their resources wisely should have a lot of new talent/$ to spend on it.

      While it isn’t ideal, they have shown that they can remain an elite team with no farm system to speak of for a stretch of several years. If the current crop of prospects (from Montero down to Bichette/Bird) yields good results this might be even more so the case: i.e. a stacked young team would ease the pain of fewer prospects in the pipeline.

      (Not that I even think the new CBA = no farm system… just the worst case. They’ve already had no farm system at times under old CBAs. This CBA should hurt their ability to get amateur talent, but if they get none I would say that’s on them.)

    • John Ya Ya

      The new CBA definitely seems to hurt their ability to get new talent. So much of their prospects that actually pan out seem to come from the international free agent market, but this CBA is so convoluted it is difficult to see what the real effects will be.

  • Plank

    6 again. Jeter, Arod, and Rivera are still old. They still have Hughes and Burnett in their rotation. Teixeira is showing signs of decline with 5 years left. Everyone else I’m happy with. They are claiming they want to slash payroll so they won’t be able to make any moves to improve or maintain the club.

    If they make move to strengthen the rotation, they’ll move up to a 7, depending on who it is.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      Jeter (some loss of whatever power he previously had, continued decline in already limited range) and A-Rod (injuries, possible decline in power) I agree with. Rivera is simply nearing the end of his current contract. He doesn’t age (at least his performance doesn’t indicate he’s aging). I have to believe that Hughes and AJ have too much talent not to be better than they showed last year. If AJ doesn’t improve, at least he’s nearing the end of his contract and there should be less issue with removing him from the rotation. There are options in AAA that should improve upon his performance from last season.

      • Plank

        Mariano hasn’t shown signs of aging yet (except his strikeout numbers dipped the last two years then rose a bit last year) but he’s 42 and one year he will fall apart. Hopefully it’s not this year, but 42!!!

  • Andy In Sunny Daytona

    YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!
    and
    YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
    (and Soler and Rivero)
    and call it a winter.

  • JonS

    At a 7 right now. NEED Darvish for an 8….Get Cespedes (or Soler) for a 9…to get a 10, we would have to either get King Felix or Noesi develops into a legit started with Nova n Hughes progressing (Second option of course more realistic)

  • Professor Longnose

    Was Golson claimed on waivers by anybody?

    • Cris Pengiucci

      If not, and the Yankees re-sign him, I’m at an 11!! :-)

  • 28 this year

    Well I am glad the Yankees haven’t really shown a strong interest in Darvish. There are two possibilities on that front. One: The Yankees do not want to the pursue him in which case its best to say they are in order to make him cost more for other teams. Two: The Yankees do want to pursue him in which case its best to say they don’t see him fitting. Since possibility two seems to be occurring, I would assume the Yankees plan on making a competitive bid which is exciting.

  • AJavierkei Pavagawnett

    9

    I hate the idea of Cespedes. The outfield is fine. Why throw $30-60 million at an unproven commodity? There is a low probability that he will become a fantastic mlb talent and would represent a significant upgrade over what we have now. If you’re going to gamble, gamble on Darvish.

    I love Cashman’s lying low. Lots of clubs with 2-3 starters with astronomical asking prices right now. Wait until the prices comes down, then make a move. Look at what the A’s got for Cahill.

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      The oufield is fine…for now. But what about a year from now?

      • AJavierkei Pavagawnett

        Josh Hamilton

        • Andy In Sunny Daytona

          What do the Yankees do for the other 81 games when Hamilton is injured?

          • Soriano Is A Liar

            +1

        • Ted Nelson

          In theory the difference in certainty will be factored into the price of a Hamilton vs. a Cespedes. Teams are theoretically going to be willing to pay a whole lot more for Hamilton than Cespedes. It would take quite a bit of work to show who represents better value for the $ invested.

          And Josh Hamilton is sort of a funny symbol of security. Dude has averaged 114 games the past three seasons, with fWAR’s ranging from 1.4 to 8.5. There’s a decent chance the Yankees would be paying ~$17-20 million per for 90 games and 1.5 fWAR of a player in his mid-30s a couple of seasons.

          • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

            Ugh…sends chills down my spine just thinking about it. Definitely a pass on Josh Hamilton (if/when he even hit free agency) as far as I’m concerned.

  • Ted Nelson

    I’ve been voting a 10 all off-season. My scale is based on position relative to the league. 30 teams in the league, so 3 teams per ranking. Between their roster, budget, FO, and farm I believe that the Yankees are a top 3 organization in MLB going forward.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      Based on your scale, I’d be at a 9 or a 10. I’m a bit more arbitrary with my vote. I’d vote a 10 if I felt the Yankees would play in and perhaps wim the WS evcery season, and go down from there. I’ve arrived at an 8, as I think its highly likely they’ll make the playoffs each season, but don’t know how well they’ll do.

    • Soriano Is A Liar

      This is kind of how I think, although I generally vote an 8 or 9, simply because there’s always room for improvement, to be even MORE dominant. If we could somehow sign a player who would guarantee World Series victories I’d vote ten, but obviously that’s not possible.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      Yeah, I guess I don’t disagree with that assessment, but I mean next year as is I can just as easily see the Yankees missing the playoffs as I can winning the World Series. They’ve got a lot of bad contracts on the books, a lot of old players at skills positions, and a lot of question marks in the rotation.

      Very frequently is does the worst case scenario happen to a team. It’s highly unlikely that everything goes wrong at once for a team, but with this rotation I think it’s a very real possibility that all the non-CC pitchers start to suck. Hughes’ days of having upside are long over, AJ’s never going to inspire any confidence, Nova had a breakout year and an ERA of five in Scranton as recently as two years ago, Noesi’s K-rates in winterball are concerning and he’s a flyball pitcher (you know what that means), and Freddy Garcia’s tank may be hitting the E. There’s a really good chance Phil Hughes is still a two pitch pitcher. There’s a really good chance that AJ Burnett is this awful. There’s a good chance that Nova regresses some, honestly if he had a high 4s ERA would anyone be surprised? There’s a good chance that Noesi struggles in his first year as a starter. There’s even chances that Garcia’s got nothing left in the tank. While unlikely all of these things happen at once, it’s not THAT unlikely.

      So yeah, they’re one of the best teams in MLB. They’re in the elite tier, but they still have their fair share of flaws and ways that they can improve. Despite these flaws, I still think Management has done the right things most of the time and I’m still confident that the right people are running the team. Sometimes, shit happens. Cliff Lee spurns your money for Philly, Joba Chamberlain’s arm can’t hold up to starting, Phil Hughes doesn’t develop a third pitch, and you trade the best pitching prospect that you’ve developed for the best position player on the team. I get it…it’s not like in 2005-2007 anyone could have saged that Joba Chamberlain would end up like this and Ian Kennedy would make it on to Cy Young ballots. Or that Hughes would be this bad and Ricky Romero and Jon Lester would be aces. Yes, this team still has a ways to go in evaluating pitching, but it’s not like they haven’t had bad luck along the way.

  • LarryM.,Fl.

    No reason to change the 8+, the Yankees for good reasons have remained quiet on the trade and FA market. This quietness is the way I prefer them to operate. Don’t overspend for anyone as was the case in the past. Be fair make it work for both parties if possible.

    I do like the the cap on the budget. This is one of our only ways of not handing over luxury tax money to the smaller markets for them to acquire big players. Also, the Yankees can compete with any CBA agreement established. Thus we can remain at the top with quality teams without overspending or paying only minor amounts in luxury taxes.

    • Plank

      Luxury tax money doesn’t go to other teams.

      • JohnnyC

        The first $5 million is withheld to cover potential refunds, and is contributed to the Industry Growth Fund (IGF) if no refunds are forthcoming. The remaining money is divided as follows: 50% funds player benefits, 25% funds developing baseball in countries without high school baseball, and 25% goes to the IGF.

        –Wikipedia

    • Ted Nelson

      The luxury tax does not go to smaller market teams.

      I also take great exception to the idea that the market you play in should determine what players you can sign. Revenue sharing goes hand-in-hand with a monopolistic construct that deprives organizations the opportunity to seek the best markets.

  • ADam

    8.. still need to add an Arm..

  • http://twitter.com/themanchine The Manchine

    Hughes, Nunez, Noesi, Bentances, Romine, & Hiroyuki Nakajima for John Danks and Gordon Beckham?

    I know, my trade proposal sucks.

    • ADam

      Where would Beckham play?

    • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

      No…what?

      No.

      Mark this down. Hughes will be better than Danks in 2012.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        Always been a Hughes fan, but consider this post bookmarked for rubbing in face at a later date purposes.

        • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

          Haha, aight, I’ll take it in stride if/when that time comes.

          Let me ask this though…if/when Hughes, Betances or anyone else offered in foolish hypothetical trades for John Danks provides the same No. 3 starter production for the Yankees, will this post be used for pat-on-the-back-for-a-good-call purposes?

  • Reggie C.

    7.

    I’m really hoping the Yanks have put in the winning bid for Darvish. This team needs Darvish way more than Cespedes. Freddy Garcia’s return is fine for depth purposes, and in light of the uncertainty surrounding Phil Hughes’s reliability to give 30 starts (or stay in the rotation for that matter), Garcia is a necessary addition. Lets not forget the rumours swirling around AJ Burnett. Burnett isn’t going anywhere in all likelihood, but the man is such a head-case I wouldnt ignore the possibility that AJ has already checked out mentally.

  • David, Jr.

    I have generally been at 9. Unlike others, I see no need for desperation around the starting pitching. I have a few other questions, as follows:

    Will ARod be healthy and bounce back? I am somewhat confident that he will come back strongly.

    Are we just stuck with Jeter’s fielding? It is obviously among the most important positions, and according to the metrics it is disastrous.

    Can Montero catch? Nothing wrong with DH for him, but if he can catch it would greatly add to the flexibility of the roster.

    • Ted Nelson

      Hope A-Rod can at least turn in one more really good year before it’s over… but who knows? He’s still been the 4th most valuable 3B in MLB the last two seasons combined according to fWAR.

      Have to imagine Jeter is the SS for the foreseeable future. Both because of the PR angle and also because I don’t see an obviously better solution at this time. Nunez = errors. Nakajima = unsigned and unproven in MLB. Pena = can’t hit. Rollins = bad investment in my opinion. Perhaps Nunez or Nakajima steps up to force the Yankees hand… Jeter should hold his own overall: still been the #13 SS in fWAR 2010 + 2011 combined.

      I think Montero can catch… but it’s more a question of how much he should catch. I don’t know the answer. Can see an argument for his bat carrying him there, for not Cing him at all, or for anywhere in between.

      • CS Yankee

        Your realistic on Jeter.

        Did well for missing 20-30 games though…still top 20 in the AL in hits & top 20 in BA for all positions.

        His D isn’t the best, but ones that are rated well seem unprepared or error prone (Andrus) at times.

        Hopefully he can add to the ledgend in ’12 that will surely correct the last few years of his playing days.

      • Jimmy McNulty

        Rollins = bad investment in my opinion.

        I think that’s everyone’s opinion.

      • David, Jr.

        Good points.

        To me, they kind of fit together. Montero at C, Jeter or ARod at DH, Nunez at SS or 3B. Still a super lineup, and maybe Jeter and ARod benefit by not playing so much in the field. The other way isn’t as strong, with Martin at C and Jeter or ARod at DH, because you lose Montero’s bat. What could tend to happen is to keep Montero’s bat in the lineup, particularly Jeter does the 158 game ironman deal, to his and the team’s detriment.

        All of this also leads me to the conclusion that despite his flaws, Nunez is a decent fit for this team.

        • Ted Nelson

          Martin could probably use a day off as much as anyone, so I can see some synergies there.

  • CS Yankee

    Ho Hmmm…Big fat 8.

    Add Yu…low 9
    Add Yu & Yo…9
    Add Cole & Yu while punting AJ…10

  • Granderslam

    Glad to hear there might be some “movement” in the John Danks talks, no matter how small. Jon Heyman mentioned that the Yankees “might” be willing to be one of Betances, Banuelos, and Montero in a package for Danks (assuming it would Betances & others). So, I wonder if that is the case, the Yankees will probably get more than just Danks…probably Thorton or another piece would be involved as well.

    If the Yankees traded for Danks (example) & signed Kuroda…
    CC-Kuroda-Danks-Nova-AJ/Hughes with Freddy as a long man in the BP, I think that can be a very intimidating rotation, with tons of depth. Kuroda isn’t necessary if Danks puts on pinstripes, it will most likely be one or the other, but it’s nice to dream of such a threatening rotation in the ALE.

    So, for now my vote is a 7, but with the necessary moves, the at will surely go up.

  • CMP

    6.

    Until they get a #2 to go along with CC, this team isn’t built for the postseason. They have a ton of starting pitching depth but except for Betances and Banuelos, it’s all back of the rotation depth.

    • Ted Nelson

      That’s a fun narrative, until reality gets in the way. The Yankees lost CC’s full start against Detroit, in which he gave up 4 ERs in 5.1 IP. Nova was good for 6.1 IP 2 ERs in a Game 1 win, then got hurt in Game 5. Burnett was good for 5.2 IP 1 ER. Garcia was good for 5.1 IP 3 ER (4 R).

      CC cost them that series as much as any pitcher who didn’t get hurt.

      • CS Yankee

        & Verlander wasn’t a beast either.