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Mailbag: Denorfia, Brown, Corbin, Kemp

January 25, 2013 by Mike 66 Comments

Four questions and four answers this week. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything throughout the week, mailbag questions or otherwise.

(Justin Edmonds/Getty)
Denorfia & Guzman. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Travis asks: Do you think a trade with San Diego for Chris Denorfia could work? Denorfia had a .337/.390/.500 slash line with 15 walks and 16 strikeouts in 178 at bats against lefties in 2012.

Denorfia, 32, has very quietly emerged as one of the best right-handed platoon outfielders in baseball over the last few seasons. Since joining the Padres in 2010, he’s hit .281/.339/.423 (115 wRC+) overall and .323/.388/.468 (142 wRC+) against southpaws. He rarely strikes out (9.9 K%) against left-handers, can steal the occasional base, and grades out as average or better defensively in the corners. Denorfia would be a fantastic target for that righty outfield platoon bat role, but the Padres just signed him to a two-year extension and I doubt they’re looking to trade him.

Now, Denorfia is not San Diego’s only right-handed platoon bat. They also have 28-year-old Jesus Guzman, who’s hit .276/.339/.439 (118 wRC+) overall as a big leaguer and .311/.387/.509 (150 wRC+) against lefties. He doesn’t make as much contact as Denorfia (16.0 K%) and he won’t steal as many bases, but he draws walks (10.4 BB%) and can play all four corner positions while also filling in at second in a pinch. Guzman was a bit of a late-bloomer who didn’t stick in the show until 2011.

While Denorfia just received his new contract, there was actually some talk the Padres might non-tender Guzman a few weeks ago. I was planning to write a Scouting The Market post the very next day had they cut him loose. Instead, they’re going to bring him to camp and see how the bench shakes out. If there’s no room — San Diego has a ton of bench players to sort through in Spring Training — they could trade him or just option him down to Triple-A for depth. Denorfia would be nice, but I think there’s a much better chance of Guzman actually being available at some point. Needless to say, the Yankees should have interest in both.

A few people asked: What about Domonic Brown?

It’s that time of year again, huh? The Phillies continue to show no interest in giving the 25-year-old Brown a legitimate chance, this time signing Delmon Young (!) to play right field everyday. Not only are they not giving him a chance, but now they’re slapping him in the face in the process.

Anyway, I’m pretty much over Brown at this point. He didn’t look so hot during his 212 plate appearance cameo last summer (.235/.316/.396, 91 wRC+), plus he played awful defense. Like, maybe he should be a first baseman defense. Brown is out of options, meaning he’ll have to go through waivers to go back to Triple-A, plus the Yankees don’t really have a need for another left-handed hitting outfielder. I suppose there’s the DH spot, but meh. The Phillies did Brown no favors by jerking him around these last few years, but at some point we have to assign some blame to the player as well. I’m at that point and wouldn’t give up much of anything for him.

(Justin Edmonds/Getty)
(Justin Edmonds/Getty)

Justin asks: With the Diamondbacks loaded on young pitching, should the Yankees try and pry away Pat Corbin from them?

Corbin, 23, was part of the trade that sent Dan Haren to the Angels a few years ago. He made his big league debut last season and pitched to a 4.54 ERA (4.00 FIP) in 107 innings spread across 17 starts and five relief appearances. The strikeout (7.23 K/9 and 18.9 K%), walk (2.10 BB/9 and 5.5 BB%), and ground ball (45.7%) rates were all pretty strong. Certainly a solid showing for a rookie.

The Diamondbacks added yet another young arm yesterday, getting Randall Delgado in the Justin Upton trade. Delgado, Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs (another part of the Haren trade and one of the best pitching prospects in baseball) will compete for the team’s fifth rotation spot in Spring Training. The two losers will go to Triple-A and serve as depth. Kevin Towers is a pitching guy and will stockpile arms until the cows come home.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) said Corbin “projects as a No. 4 starter” before last season because he doesn’t light up the radar gun and none of his offspeed pitches is a true swing-and-miss offering. He’s almost like a left-handed (and slightly younger) David Phelps. That’s someone who is nice to have, but not someone you go all out to acquire. Corbin would be nice to have in stock come 2014 after Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes all hit free agency, but I think the Yankees should use their trade chips to acquire a bat first. That’s a much more pressing need.

Tucker asks: Back in the 2010-11 offseason, there was speculation of a Robinson Cano-for-Matt Kemp trade. In hindsight, would you have made the move?

I’m pretty sure that was much earlier than 2010-2011, no? I thought it was during the 2008-2009 offseason, after Robbie had his awful year. That’s usually when fans conjure up trade scenarios for players, after their down seasons. Anyway, I remember the idea was to trade Cano for Kemp and sign Orlando Hudson to take over at second base.

I was all for that trade at the time (not so much signing Hudson, but I digress) because I thought Kemp would turn into a star (he has!) and Cano would settle in a solid second baseman (he’s been much, much better than that). That was back when the Yankees were looking at replacing both Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui in the near future, and before they acquired Nick Swisher or had seen what Brett Gardner could do in a full season. There was a need for an outfielder and I was all for such a trade.

Now, looking at this in hindsight is another matter. Cano’s been the better hitter (138 vs. 135 wRC+), the better defender (by a mile), and the healthier player (again by a mile) over the last four seasons. Kemp has the advantage in base-running (by a mile) and in terms of contracts ($21M vs. $39M). Despite the significant difference in salary, I would have not done that trade in hindsight. I valuable durability and Cano never ever misses a game. But, as I said, I was all for it at the time and it’s not like Kemp is chopped liver either.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Chris Denorfia, Domonic Brown, Jesus Guzman, Matt Kemp, Patrick Corbin, Robinson Cano

Thursday Night Open Thread

January 24, 2013 by Mike 162 Comments

I normally only stick happy Yankees videos in the open thread, but I’m changing it up tonight only because that game by Pedro Martinez was one of the most dominant pitching performances I’ve ever seen. I remember watching that game and thinking the Yankees had absolutely no chance, even after Chili Davis hit the solo homer to (briefly) give them the lead. Felix Hernandez gave off that vibe during his perfect game, he was so on that you knew the game was already over. Peak Pedro (1999-2000), who did it all during an extreme offensive era, was arguably the greatest pitcher in the history of the universe.

Anyway, here is tonight’s open thread. The Rangers, Islanders, and Knicks are all playing, but feel free to talk about whatever you like here. Enjoy.

Filed Under: Open Thread

Yankees sign Dan Johnson to minor league deal

January 24, 2013 by Mike

(Jason Miller/Getty)
(Jason Miller/Getty)

Spring Training is less than three weeks away and the Yankees still need a DH, bench help, and miscellaneous minor league depth. They brought in a player who might be able to satisfy any one of those needs on Thursday, signing corner infielder Dan Johnson to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training according to Sweeny Murti. Andrew Marchand says the deal is worth $900k at the big league level.

Johnson is probably best remembered by Yankees fans for his two-out, two-strike, game-tying homer off Cory Wade (video) in the ninth inning of Game 162 in 2011. He actually has a bit of a history when it comes to super-clutch late-season homers, including this 2008 shot against the Red Sox that helped keep the Rays in first place and this 2010 walk-off shot against Boston that kept Tampa tied atop the AL East. Johnson has been dubbed by the Great Pumpkin by the Rays faithful because he pops up once a year to do something awesome, so hooray for original nicknames.

Anyway, none of that really matters to the Yankees. Johnson, 33, is a career .237/.338/.412 (102 wRC+) hitter in over 1,550 career big league plate appearances, but most of that came during his time with the Athletics back in the day. Since landing with the Rays in 2008, he’s been a .185/.309/.379 (93 wRC+) hitter in a little less than 300 plate appearances. He had a very brief (eight games) stint with the White Sox last year and hit three homers in the final game of the season. Johnson’s career Triple-A numbers are gaudy: a .294/.408/.553 line with more walks (15.7%) than strikeouts (15.1%) in nearly 3,000 plate appearances. He also spent the 2009 season in Japan.

Defensively, Johnson fits best at first base or DH, but he can fill in at third in a real pinch. I’m talking an emergency, not once a week or anything. Since he doesn’t steal bases or offer any speed, he’s just a pure left-handed bat who needs a platoon partner. Given his pull-happy approach, Johnson could have some fun with the short porch in right field even though his homers have averaged over 380 feet over the last three years according to Hit Tracker. That’s pretty impressive. It’s also worth noting that he doesn’t strike out as much as guys with this profile tend to do (18.9 K% since 2008), so that’s cool.

At worst, Johnson will man first base for Triple-A Scranton — he was the International League MVP in 2011 — while at best he takes over as New York’s regular DH. In the middle, he serves as a defensively limited left-handed bat off the bench. The signing is similar to the Russell Branyan pick-up last year, except Johnson is younger and doesn’t have a history of back problems. The move won’t preclude the Yankees from signing another player to be their DH or fill out the bench.

Filed Under: Transactions Tagged With: Dan Johnson

Braves land Justin Upton

January 24, 2013 by Mike 99 Comments

After years of rumors, Justin Upton has finally been traded. The outfielder was dealt to the Braves along with third baseman Chris Johnson this morning according to multiple reports. The Diamondbacks will receive the versatile Martin Prado, infield prospect Nick Ahmed, first base prospect Brandon Drury, and young right-handers Randall Delgado and Zeke Spruill in return. I’ve been writing about Upton for a long time, but the Yankees never seemed to have serious interest him. It’s a shame, they could use a player just like him.

 

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Justin Upton

The Biggest Move of the Offseason

January 24, 2013 by Mike 36 Comments

(Chris Trotman/Getty)
(Chris Trotman/Getty)

The Yankees have spent roughly $62M this offseason, but the vast majority was spent on players who were with the team last season. Outside of various waiver claims and minor league contracts, Kevin Youkilis is the only new player the team has acquired this offseason. They downgraded in right field, downgraded behind the plate, and probably downgraded at third base as well. One spot where they did make an upgrade was left field, and they accomplished that without even making a roster move.

Last season, New York’s left fielders managed a .253/.315/.444 (103 wRC+) batting line that was highly dependent on the power of Raul Ibanez and (first half) Andruw Jones. Depending on your fielding metric of choice, the club’s left fielders were either very good (+12.2 UZR), average (+0 Total Zone), or a bit below-average (-2 DRS) defensively. I tend to agree with Total Zone and DRS on this one, especially since Ichiro Suzuki only started 26 games in left following the trade. Between the offense and defense, the Yankees basically had a league average (or slightly worse) left field unit last season.

Of course, the only reason the team had to rely on guys like Ibanez and Ichiro last season was because Brett Gardner hurt his elbow barely a week into the season. He missed almost the entire year, save for a handful of at-bats down the stretch. Gardner, 29, is no star, but the lack of outfield defense and overall team speed was painfully obvious while he was out of action. His ability to work the count — we’re talking high-end walk (11.0%) and pitches per plate appearance (4.29) rates for his career — was noticeably absent as well. The Yankees lost a lot when he got hurt, no doubt about it.

Super early ZiPS projections pegged Gardner as a true talent .259/.355/.362 hitter heading into next season, which is right in line with nearly league average career performance (.266/.355/.368, 98 wRC+). I don’t think we’re ever going to see a repeat of the .277/.383/.379 (112 wRC+) line he put up back in 2010, but he’s also not at an age where a performance drop-off would be expected. Heck, at age 29 Gardner is more likely to outperform his projection than fall short. The left field offense was about league average and power heavy last season, with Gardner it will be about league average and on-base heavy. If I had to pick between the two, I’d take the latter.

The upgrades on defense and on the bases will be drastic. Not only does Gardner average 47 steals per 162 games, he’s also taken the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) a whopping 51% of the time in his career. That’s far better than the league average (~40%). In the field he’s a defensive monster, a true ballhawk who should (and hopefully will) play center field and push Curtis Granderson to left this coming season. The various metrics have rated Gardner at roughly 20 runs better than the average left fielder in recent years, and even with the shift the center he should still be good for +10 runs or so. The overall shape of that left field production will be so much different, going from all-power and no speed or defense to no-power, OBP, speed and defense.

As I said before, Youkilis is the only notable new player the Yankees have brought in this offseason, and the only reason they signed him was because Alex Rodriguez got hurt. Maybe they would have pumped that $12M into someone else had A-Rod not blown out his left hip, but we’ll never know. Any shot at overall team improvement in 2013 will come from the guys who were here in 2012 improving their performance. It doesn’t stand out as a “move” because no one was acquired via trade or signed as a free agent, but swapping Ibanez & Co.’s one dimensional game for Gardner’s speed, defense, and willingness to work the count stands to be New York’s biggest upgrade of the winter.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Brett Gardner

Rosenthal: Cubs sign Scott Hairston

January 23, 2013 by Mike 57 Comments

Via Ken Rosenthal: The Cubs (?!?) have agreed to sign Scott Hairston to a two-year contract. The Yankees had some interest in the 32-year-old, who was by far the best right-handed hitting outfield left on the market. They didn’t like the idea of a multi-year contract given the 2014 payroll plan though, so off to Chicago he went. The odds of Matt Diaz and/or Russ Canzler making the team just skyrocketed.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Chicago Cubs, Scott Hairston

Wednesday Night Open Thread

January 23, 2013 by Mike 80 Comments

I was away from my computer last night and I didn’t realize the open thread video didn’t post properly. I must have screwed up the code when I was changing the size. My bad. Anyway, there’s Chad Curtis hitting a walk-off homer (and flipping his bat!) off Mike Remlinger in the Game Three of the 1999 World Series. He homered off Tom Glavine earlier in the game as well, and the Yankees completed the comeback from a four-run deficit when Chuck Knoblauch hit this two-run dinger in the eighth. I remember so little about that World Series it’s not even funny. Everything from the other late-90s title years is pretty fresh though.

Here is your open thread for the evening. The Rangers and Nets are playing tonight, so talk about those games or anything else here. Go nuts.

Filed Under: Open Thread

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