River Avenue Blues

Blue Jays & Marlins swing ten-ish player blockbuster

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The Blue Jays and Marlins are on the verge of completing a monster ten-ish player blockbuster that will send Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto for Henderson Alvarez, Yunel Escobar, and various prospects. The deal is not official yet and reports are still trickling in about who those various prospects actually are, so I suggest checking out MLBTR every so often until this thing is finalized.

Toronto lost 89 games and a ton of players to injury last year, but this trade obviously improves their outlook for next season. We have all winter to analyze this deal and how it relates to the Yankees, but for now here’s a thread to discuss this monstrosity.

Open Thread: Robinson Cano, U.S. Citizen

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On his Twitter feed this morning, Robinson Cano announced that he officially became a U.S. citizen today. He even posted some photos of himself being sworn in, which are pretty neat. I can only assume this means he’ll now start over Dustin Pedroia at second base for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic next spring. In all seriousness, congrats to Robbie. That’s a pretty big deal.

Here is your open thread for the evening. Both the Knicks and Nets are playing tonight, so talk about those games or anything else here. Enjoy.

Feinsand: Talks “are ongoing” between Yankees and Martin

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Via Mark Feinsand: Talks between the Yankees and Russell Martin about a new contract “are ongoing” according to Matt Colleran, the catcher’s agent. “The process is going to determine the time frame (for signing),” said Colleran, who acknowledged talking to at least a half-dozen teams at last week’s GM Meetings.. “He loved everything about New York and he still does. With the ability to talk to other teams, now it’s all part of the process. Once he has all his info, he’ll decide what he wants to do.”

Martin, 29, hit .211/.311/.403 (95 wRC+) with a career-high 21 homers last season, including a 139 wRC+ against lefties. The Yankees clearly value his defensive skills — particularly his pitch-framing ability, it seems — and toughness, enough that they offered him a three-year, $20M-something contract extension last offseason. He turned that down and I think he’s totally going to wind up signing a similar contract anyway. The free agent catching market is a wasteland.

What Went Wrong: Andruw Jones

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(Alex Trautwig/Getty)

A year ago, the Yankees had one of the best fourth outfielders in baseball. Andruw Jones signed a one-year contract prior to the season and hit .247/.356/.495 (133 wRC+) in 222 plate appearances while destroying lefties (152 wRC+) and playing adequate defense in the outfield corners. The Yankees brought him back for 2012 on the exact same contract (one year, $2M) and hoped for similar production. They instead got much less.

Jones, 35, was actually very good in the first half, which I know is easy to forget. He went on a four-homers-in-three-games rampage in Fenway Park in early-July and carried a .244/.326/.535 batting line with eleven homers in 144 plate appearances into the All-Star break. Jones was hitting almost exactly as he had last year for the first three months of this season and for the most part no one paid him much attention. He was doing what he was supposed to do off the bench.

Andruw homered against the Blue Jays in the third game after the All-Star break and then simply stopped hitting. He fell into a 6-for-44 (.136) slump before hitting a big game-tying homer off Derek Holland on August 16th, but that was followed by a 3-for-27 (.111) stretch. Jones hit a pinch-hit homer against the Twins in the 154th game of the season, but at that point he’d lost his job as a designated outfield lefty masher. Ichiro Suzuki was playing left field everyday and Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter were taking turns at DH against lefties.

From July 18th, the day after that homer against Blue Jays, through the end of the season, Jones went just 14-for-99 (.141) with 27 strikeouts, including 11-for-74 (.149) with 18 strikeouts against left-handers. Arguably worse than the offense was the defense, as Andruw looked disinterested and often dogged it on balls hit into the gaps. I’m not normally one to question a player’s effort level, but with Jones it was an obvious problem. No one ever expected him to defend like he did during his days with the Braves, but sheesh. He provided nothing with the glove.

One year after having one of baseball’s best reverse outfielders, the Yankees received a .197/.294/.408 (89 wRC+) batting line out of Jones in 269 plate appearances this season. They left him off the playoff roster in favor of Brett Gardner, who had a total of three at-bats to his credit after coming off a season-long DL stint. After the season, Andruw said he played the second half with a finger injury suffered while sliding for a ball against Toronto immediately after the break, which fits the timetable of his offensive collapse and seems like a completely plausible explanation. It’s not enough to excuse his performance, however.

Scouting The Trade Market: David DeJesus

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(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Yankees might not have a bigger hole to fill this offseason than in right field, were they’re losing Nick Swisher’s consistently well-above-average production to free agency. The free agent market offers few viable alternatives and the trade market always seems to be overloaded with aging players on over-sized contracts. Since the Bombers are looking to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold by 2014, long-term and big money contracts are out of the question for the time being.

The best places to look for trade candidates are rebuilding teams, and perhaps no club outside of Houston is in the middle of a more extensive rebuild than the Cubs. Chicago’s north-siders didn’t just lose 101 games this year, they finished with the franchise’s worst record in nearly 60 years. The new Theo Epstein-led regime has cleaned house since taking over 12 months ago, trading pretty much every established player on the roster other than Starlin Castro and Matt Garza. They likely would have dealt the latter at the deadline as well had he not gotten hurt.

One of the few free agents the Cubbies signed last winter was the Brooklyn-born and New Jersey-raised David DeJesus. The 32-year-old outfielder has spent most of his career with the Royals, but they traded him to the Athletics a year before he was scheduled to hit free agency. Now that he’s signed with one of baseball’s most historic franchises, all he has left to do to complete the Johnny Damon circle of life is spend his last years as a productive big leaguer in pinstripes. Let’s see if DeJesus is a fit for the Yankees…

The Pros

  • Over the last three years, the left-handed hitting DeJesus has hit a solid .270/.350/.405 (108 wRC+). As you’d expect given the park effects, the worst of those three years came while with the Athletics (96 wRC+). He’s primarily a pull hitter (2012 spray chart, 2010-2012 spray chart), which fits Yankee Stadium well.
  • DeJesus’ game is all about controlling the strike zone. He owns a 9.4% walk rate over the last three years, including a career-high 10.5% this season. He’s also struck out just 15.0% of the time since 2010, making contact on 86.6% of his swings. Those two rates aren’t elite, but they’re solidly better than the league average.
  • Outside of a fluke torn thumb ligament in 2010 — you might remember him suffering the injury crashing into the Yankee Stadium wall (video) — DeJesus hasn’t missed more than about a week due to injury since the 2006 season.
  • DeJesus has spent considerable time in all three outfield spots throughout his career, and the various metrics have rated him as an average or better defender in the corners throughout the years.
  • The Cubbies signed him to a two-year deal worth $10M last offseason, and he’s owed $4.25M in the final guaranteed year next season. There’s also a $6.5M club option for 2014 ($1.5M buyout).

The Cons

  • DeJesus has never really been able to hit lefties, but his struggles have become extreme these last two years. He hit a tolerable .289/.338/.374 (90 wRC+) against southpaws from 2008-2010, but since the start of last year it’s a .163/.256/.195 (30 wRC+). Among the 227 players to bat at least 200 times against lefties these last two years, exactly zero have been less productive. He’s been that bad.
  • You’re not getting much power or speed with DeJesus. He’s hit just 24 homers (.135 ISO) and gone 14-for-28 in stolen base attempts the last three years. He has taken the extra base a slightly above-average 46% of the time since 2010, however.
  • DeJesus doesn’t have a strong outfield arm, which limits his usefulness in right. Not a big deal, but it’s probably worth noting.
  • I don’t put much stock in this, but DeJesus has not only never played in the postseason, but he’s never even played for a team that finished the year with a winning record. A pennant race will be an entirely new experience for him.

There has been no indication that the Cubs are shopping DeJesus, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’re open to moving him given their extreme rebuilding phase. They’ve focused primarily on pitching prospects but have taken whatever they could get over the last year or so. Epstein & Co. are seeking quality over quantity.

The neat thing about DeJesus is that we serves as his own trade comparable. When the Royals traded him to the Athletics during the 2010-2011 offseason, he had one year left on his contract ($6M) and was coming off a career-high 127 wRC+. Two years later, the Cubs would be trading him with one year left on his contract ($5.75M) and coming off a career-average 104 wRC+. The price should not have gone up, and if anything it should have gone down. Oakland sent the Royals one up-and-down big league arm (Vin Mazzaro) and a Single-A pitching prospect (Justin Marks) two winters ago, so perhaps a package of Adam Warren and a low-level arm gets it done. Seems pretty reasonable, actually.

I’ve never been a huge DeJesus fan but he’s always been a solid player. These days you need a platoon partner and can’t count on him to hit double-digit homers or steal double-digit bases or run down everything in right field, so his value stems almost exclusively from his ability to draw walks and put the ball in play. It would be a downgrade and a noticeably different style of play than what Swisher brought to the table these last four years, but considering what figures to be a reasonable price and a short-term contract commitment (the club option is pretty nice), the Yankees might not find more bang for their buck this winter.

What Went Right: Eric Chavez

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(Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Part of the reason why the Yankees won World Series after World Series in the late-1990s was the quality of their reserves. They had guys like Tim Raines and Darryl Strawberry and Chili Davis on the bench, established star-caliber players who accepted lesser roles later in their careers for the sake of winning. The club has gotten back to that model in recent years, which led them to Eric Chavez in 2011.

Last season, Chavez’s first year in New York, went well but it wasn’t great. He missed nearly three months with a foot injury and hit .263/.320/.356 (80 wRC+) in 175 plate appearances overall, including .255/.322/.365 (83 wRC+) against righties. His offense was propped up by a number of big hits (.415/.468/.537, 165 wRC+ with runners in scoring position) and his defense at the hot corner was pretty strong. He wasn’t Raines or Strawberry or even Davis, but he was a solid bench piece.

The Yankees brought the 34-year-old Chavez back on another one-year deal in 2012, likely expecting more of the same. Instead, they got a whole lot more. He singled in his first plate appearance of the season and was used pretty sparingly for the first 15 games or so, but he made his second start of the year on April 20th and responded with two solo homers in Fenway Park. He homered again on April 30th, matching his long ball output from 2011 in his first month and 30 plate appearances of 2012. Chavez had a torrid 12-for-37 (.324) stretch with four doubles and two homers in mid-June and carried a .282/.336/.504 batting line into the All-Star break. He then went 3-for-3 with a homer in the third game after the break.

(Leon Halip/Getty)

When Felix Hernandez broke Alex Rodriguez’s hand with a pitch on July 24th, Chavez took over as the regular third baseman against right-handers. He hit .333/.392/.543 in 89 plate appearances during A-Rod’s absence, including an insane 16-for-34 (.471) stretch with five homers from late-July to mid-August. During a four-game series against the Tigers in early-August, he went 9-for-16 (.563) with two homers, including the game-winning dinger in the eighth inning of the series finale.

A-Rod returned in early-September and Chavez went back to his usual role off the bench, but he didn’t stop hitting. He went 8-for-30 (.267) with four homers and more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six) in the club’s final 22 games of the season. Chavez didn’t hit all in the playoffs, literally zero hits in 17 plate appearances, but that’s not enough to take the shine away from his .281/.348/.496 (126 wRC+) effort in 313 regular season plate appearances. He hit 16 (!) homers, his most since 2006 and more than three times as many as he hit from 2008-2011 combined (five), and he also tagged right-handed pitchers for a .299/.366/.545 (144 wRC+) batting line in 244 plate appearances. The guy was a monster off the bench.

At the same time, the Yankees also got lucky that Chavez didn’t get hurt and miss a significant chunk of time. He did spend seven days on the concussion DL in early-May and was unavailable for a handful of games through the season for general maintenance, but otherwise Chavez stayed on the field all season despite needing a rigorous daily routine to get ready to play. He was arguably the team’s best bench player since those veteran laden late-1990s team, providing solid defense and excellent offense while subbing in during A-Rod’s injury and allowing the team to never miss a beat.

Thoughts on a random Tuesday morning

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(Elsa/Getty)

Yeah, I think I’m ready for the offseason to be over with. This no baseball thing kinda stinks. Unfortunately, pitchers and catchers still don’t report for three months…

1. I was looking through some transactions logs yesterday when I noticed that since the CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira spending spree in December 2009, the Yankees have signed just four free agents to multi-year contracts. Mariano Rivera (two years) and Derek Jeter (three years) are two of ’em and they were never really threats to sign elsewhere. The other two went to Pedro Feliciano (two years) and, on ownership’s orders, Rafael Soriano (three years). Furthermore, the Yankees have only signed five free agents to deals worth $10M+ regardless of contract length during that time. Mo ($30M), Jeter ($51M), and Soriano ($35M) got three of them while the other two went to Andy Pettitte ($11.75M prior to 2010) and Hiroki Kuroda ($10M). They did re-sign Sabathia, but he was never actually a free agent and they didn’t have to get in a bidding war to retain him. Four multi-year deals and five eight-figure deals for free agents in the last three years, that’s it*.

* Obviously they went after Cliff Lee during the 2010-2011 offseason, but there really haven’t been many other free agents who fit their needs in recent years. Matt Holliday, Yoenis Cespedes (no MLB track record), and Yu Darvish (no MLB track record) are the only ones that really stand out as players who fit what the Yankees needed at the time.

2. I still have no idea what the Yankees will do behind the plate if Russell Martin signs elsewhere. Yesterday we heard that they are in on Mike Napoli, but again that strikes as me driving up the price for the Red Sox more than actually pursuing him. The free agent catcher market is a wasteland outside of Martin and A.J. Pierzynski, and I hope the Yankees don’t sign the latter for numerous reasons. Soon-to-be 36-year-old catchers with over 13,000 career innings behind the plate who are coming off career years offensively (118 wRC+) are a very safe bet to perform worse the next year. Plus he’s a jerk. The trade market has little to offer as well, which is why I think they’ll make a strong push to re-sign Martin. I just can’t see the Yankees opening the season with a catching tandem featuring two of Chris Stewart, Austin Romine, Frankie Cervelli, and Eli Whiteside.

3. The Yankees have taken two relievers (one right-handed and one left-handed) in each of the last two Rule 5 Drafts, but I wonder if they’ll grab an outfielder this time around. Not necessarily someone who they’ll just hand the right field job, but someone to compete in Spring Training. It doesn’t even have to be a kid, remember they took the veteran Josh Phelps to be the backup first baseman/platoon DH back in 2007. Taking a Rule 5 outfielder wouldn’t stop them from signing an established big leaguer at some point either, it would just given them extra depth in case things don’t break right with Plans A through like, E. It wouldn’t be an ideal way to replace Nick Swisher, but it would be interesting. Rule 5 Draft success stories are very rare these days, especially on the position player side.

4. I’ve been thinking about the Yankees’ renewed focus on makeup and character lately and there’s a chance I’ll write a longer post on it at some point this offseason, but I do wonder if they overdo it a bit. Not necessarily at the big league level, but when it comes to amateur players. They clearly valued Cito Culver’s makeup in 2010 and Dante Bichette Jr.’s in 2011, but those two have done little as professionals. Meanwhile, the club’s three best prospects according to Baseball America (Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, and Gary Sanchez) all have had some kind of makeup concern in the recent past. Given the new draft restrictions, I feel that the Yankees have to focus on talent and put makeup on the back-burner with their top picks. They’re not just drafting for themselves, they’re drafting for other teams (by virtue of trading prospects) as well. If you can get a talented kid with strong makeup, great, but talent should never take a backseat to makeup though, not in my opinion. The Yankees figure to have some extra first round draft picks next year and I’m curious to see how they handle them given Culver’s and DBJ’s disappointing career so far.