River Avenue Blues

Game 141: Spoiler

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(Patrick McDermott/Getty)

This three-game series in Fenway Park is only important for one team. The Red Sox are in last place and continue their season-long free fall, so the only thing they have left to do is play spoiler. Try to make everyone else miserable as they are, which is what most last place clubs do at this point of the season. The Yankees need to start winning consistently to create some separation in the division race, starting in Boston. Here’s the starting nine…

SS Derek Jeter
RF Nick Swisher
DH Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
C  Russell Martin
1B Steve Pearce
CH Curtis Granderson
LF Andruw Jones
3B Jayson Nix

RHP Hiroki Kuroda

Tonight’s game is scheduled to start a little after 7pm ET and can be seen on My9 locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy.

Pettitte cleared to begin running

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Doctors have cleared Andy Pettitte to begin running following yesterday’s checkup, a big obstacle in his return from a fractured left leg. The left-hander did some fielding drills today and will throw another simulated game tomorrow, unofficially his third. He threw three innings and 46 pitches over the weekend, so I assume he’ll ramp it up to 60-65 pitches next time out. Based on how things have been progressing, it seems that we could see Andy back on the mound in meaningful games within two weeks or so.

Replacing Mark Teixeira

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(Rob Carr/Getty)

The Yankees got some bad news about Mark Teixeira yesterday, as the first baseman will miss 10-14 days after irritating his Grade I left calf strain on the final play of Saturday’s game. He had missed the ten previous games, so all told the Bombers figure to be without one of their core middle of the order bats for 20 games or so. Teixeira isn’t the hitter he was when he first got to New York, but it’s still a big loss at an important stretch of the season.

Thankfully there are no shortage of players on the roster due to September call-ups. Following yesterday’s Melky Mesa promotion, the Yankees are carrying 17 position players at the moment, not including Teixeira. I unofficially count five capable of playing first base at the drop of a hat, though the best solutions are Nick Swisher and Steve Pearce. Casey McGehee, Eric Chavez, and Raul Ibanez all have some experience at the position but aren’t exactly grizzled veterans at first. Given this cast of characters, it’ll take a bit of an unconventional outfield/first base platoon to replace Teixeira.

Right-Handed Pitchers
I’ve already written about using Chris Dickerson to replace Teixeira, which is the best thing Joe Girardi could do with his regular first baseman out. Swisher plays first, Dickerson plays right, Ichiro Suzuki plays left (or right, it doesn’t really matter), and Ibanez stays at DH. That gives the Yankees their best defensive alignment without Teixeira while getting their core platoon bats in the lineup. Chavez can steal some at-bats at DH or man third while Alex Rodriguez gets a half-day off, so there’s even more flexibility available. Point being, Teixeira’s vacated playing time against righties should go to Dickerson because he can help on both sides of the ball and add some speed to the lineup.

(Charles Wenzelberg/NY Post)

Left-Handed Pitchers
Against southpaws, you really don’t want Ibanez or Chavez in the lineup. Frankly you don’t want Dickerson or Ichiro in there either. Pearce has apparently usurped McGehee as the primary platoon left-handed bat, and his experience at first should land him there against lefties while Teixeira is out. Swisher goes back to the outfield, obviously. If the Yankees are unwilling to turn the reigns over to Mesa, Andruw Jones will continue to play left field against lefties despite his second half futility. A-Rod can DH while Jayson Nix (or Eduardo Nunez) take over at the hot corner. That was the plan coming into the season anyway.

* * *

At this point of the season the only thing the Yankees can do is rearrange the furniture during Teixeira’s absence. Dickerson steps in against righties while Pearce steps in against lefties. There’s enough roster flexibility to have everyone play their best defensive position as well. Replacing Teixeira’s offense will be impossible unless someone unexpectedly gets extremely hot, but using this platoon setup puts the team in the best position to succeed while he’s on the shelf for these crucial upcoming games.

No Mercy

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(Ronald Martinez/Getty)

The Yankees, clinging to a slim one-game lead in the AL East, saunter into Fenway to begin a series with the reeling Red Sox.  As Mike outlined in his series preview, the Red Sox have been pretty awful this season, falling to unimaginable 15 games below .500.  While they struggled for much of the season, they have been particularly awful of late.  The Sox have lost a ton of talent since the Yankees played them last in late-July, both due to injury and the blockbuster trade (also known as a salary dump) they completed with the Dodgers.  While the Yankees are playing for a division title and a playoff spot, the Red Sox seem to have little to play for other than their pride (or what remains of it).  On paper, this is a matchup that heavily favors the Yankees, who despite their own problems should field a more talented and motivated roster than that of the Red Sox.

It also has all the makings of a trap series.  With a big three-game series with the Rays looming on the horizon, it would be easy for the Yankees to overlook the crappy Red Sox and look ahead for the matchup with their actual competition for the division title.  Meanwhile, while Boston seems and demoralized, I imagine getting the opportunity to ruin the Yankees’ season could get at least some of them fired up.

While the Red Sox roster is depleted, there is still enough talent to cause trouble for the Yankees.  They are missing David Ortiz and Will Middlebrooks, but Dustin Pedroia, Cody Ross, and Jacoby Ellsbury could provide enough punch to pile up some runs against some shaky Yankee pitching.  Plus, future Hall of Famer Pedro Ciriaco is still there, and will look to improve on his .469/.485/.625 career line against the Bombers.  Hopefully the Yankees can figure out a way to retire him.

On the pitching side, there will be some interesting matchups.  The Yankees will put perhaps their best pitcher of the season (#HIROK) up against Jon Lester in game one.  Even though Lester is hardly the dominant Lester of years past, he is still a strong competitor who put up a good performance against the Yankees the last time he faced them.  At best, this is a small advantage for the Yankees.  The Phelps-Cook matchup in game two could be a slugfest, as Cook has been mediocre while Phelps has failed to get past the 5th inning in his last two starts.  As for game three, Felix Doubront has posed some problems for the Yankees in the past, while Phil Hughes has been pretty solid of late (in part thanks to the new slider).  While the Yankees should be favored in all three games, none of these matchups strikes me as a sure thing.

Given the close nature of the Al East race and the atrociousness of the Red Sox, taking anything less than 2 out of 3 games in this series would be a major failure.  The Yankees have problems of their own, such as Mark Teixeira’s recent injury, but they are light years ahead of where Boston is at this point, both in terms of on-field talent and off-field intangibles.  While the Red Sox should be jazzed up for the opportunity to stick it to their longtime rivals, the Bombers should be motivated to add insult to Boston’s injury.  The Yanks will have the opportunity to get themselves a little breathing room in the division as Baltimore and Tampa will be squaring off while the Yankees are playing the Red Sox.  A sweep will put the Yankees in strong position to hold on to their division lead, and go into the playoffs with some positive momentum.

9/11-9/13 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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(Jamie Squire/Getty)

A mid-September series between the Yankees and Red Sox are supposed to be much more meaningful than this. Well, let me rephrase that. These games are obviously meaningful for the Yankees, but in terms of where they finish with respect to the Sox? Meaningless. Instead of the usual mid-September battle for AL East supremacy, we’ve got a midweek series between a first place team and a last place team.

What Have They Done Lately?

Boston is legit terrible right now. They just got swept by the Blue Jays at home and have won one (one!) of their last dozen games. That’s hard to believe. Since the big trade, the Sox are 3-12. Since August 1st, they are 10-27. Since Opening Day, they’re 63-78 with a -19 run differential. Boston is so bad that Brendan O’Toole of Over the Monster wrote about the last time they were this bad.

Offense

(Jim Rogash/Getty)

The Red Sox have averaged 4.7 runs per games with an almost perfectly league average team 99 wRC+ this year, but this isn’t the same team they fielded most of the season. David Ortiz (166 wRC+) is likely out for the season — he’ll miss at least this series — with an Achilles problem and he was their best hitter by no small margin. Adrian Gonzalez (114 wRC+) is now with the Dodgers and so is Carl Crawford (111 wRC+), who had a nice little run between DL stints. Will Middlebrooks (121 wRC+) is out with a wrist injury as well. That’s a lot of early-season offseason they don’t have anymore.

Among those still with the team, Cody Ross (125 wRC+) has been the best hitter all season. That said, I think we all agree that Dustin Pedroia (113 wRC+) is the guy we don’t want to see at the plate in a big spot. Jacoby Ellsbury (82 wRC+) hasn’t been able to build off last year’s MVP runner-up campaign due in part to a shoulder injury. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (94 wRC+) has power and little else, and he’s probably their third best hitter right now. James Loney (70 wRC+) has replaced Adrian at first base, and Scott Podsednik (94 wRC+) is playing everyday as well. Mike Aviles (74 wRC+) has seen his playing time cut a bit lately, and I think you’ll be happy to hear that Pedro Ciriaco (100 wRC+) is hitting .128/.146/.128 in the team’s last 13 games (48 plate appearances). Maybe the Yankees can actually get him out this week.

The lot of September call-ups is highlighted by Ryan Lavarnway (29 wRC+) and Daniel Nava (110 wRC+). Ryan Kalish is the spare outfielder, Guillermo Quiroz the third catcher, and Mauro Gomez and Ivan DeJesus Jr. the extra infielders. This certainly isn’t the kind of offense we’re used to see out of the Red Sox, who have averaged just 3.5 runs per game with a .253/.298/.366 batting line since the big trade with the Dodgers.

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. LHP Jon Lester
It’s a case of too little, too late for the Red Sox and Lester, who has pitched to a 3.70 ERA (3.49 FIP) in his last seven starts (48.2 IP). Overall, he owns a 4.99 ERA (4.09 FIP) with a career-low strikeout rate (7.46 K/9 and 19.4 K%) and a career-high homer rate (1.13 HR/9). His walk rate (2.83 BB/9 and 7.4 BB%) is among the best marks of his career, so at least he has that going for him. Lester is a three-fastball guy, sitting around 92 with the four-seamer and sinker, but a notch below that with the cutter. His curveball sits in the mid-70s, the changeup in the mid-80s. The Yankees have had both good and bad games against Lester both this year and in recent years. There’s no mystery here.

(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

Wednesday: RHP David Phelps vs. RHP Aaron Cook
Cook’s defiance of defense independent pitching metrics came to a screeching halt right around the All-Star break, as he’s allowed 39 runs in his last nine starts (47 IP). His season performance sits at 5.17 ERA (5.01 FIP) in 14 starts, including stellar walk (1.76 BB/9 and 4.6 BB%) and ground ball (60.2%) rates. He doesn’t strike anyone out though, I’m talking a 1.88 K/9 and 4.9 K%. That’s the lowest strikeout rate in the last 50 years among pitchers who made at least 14 starts in a given season. That’s kinda ridiculous. Cook uses his upper-80s sinker about 80% of the time, with the rest being upper-80s sliders and mid-80s curveballs. The Yankees hung six runs on the for Rockie in four innings earlier this year.

Thursday: RHP Phil Hughes vs.LHP Felix Doubront
A pitcher’s first full season as a starter in the AL East tends to be up-and-down, and Doubront certainly started well before collapsing late. He’s allowed at least four runs in each of his last five starts, and only twice completed five full innings of work during that time. Forty-five baserunners in his last 21.1 innings have his season ERA at 5.21 (4.59 FIP) despite an excellent strikeout rate (9.09 K/9 and 22.7 K%). The walk (3.88 BB/9 and 9.7 BB%), ground ball (42.7%), and homer (1.47 HR/9) percentages aren’t anything to write home about. The 24-year-old southpaw uses both two- and four-seamers in the low-90s to set up his mid-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup. Doubront has made one good (one run in six innings) and one not-so-good (four runs in 6.1 innings) start against the Yankees this season. There’s talk that Boston may shut him down given his workload, in which case Daisuke Matsuzaka would likely make this start instead. Nothing is final though.

(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

Bullpen Status
Both the Yankees and Red Sox had Monday off, so everyone’s bullpen is fresh. It took a little longer than expected, but Andrew Bailey (4.41 FIP) has assumed closer duties after former Yankee Al Aceves (4.25 FIP) handled the ninth inning most of the season. Aceves is basically a mop-up man at this point, and there’s some speculation that he could move into the rotation and take Doubront’s spot during these final weeks. Given some shenanigans with manager Bobby Valentine, it’s possible Ace’s days in Boston are numbered.

Setup duties have fallen mostly on the shoulders of Vicente Padilla (3.77 FIP), who I’m sure is crushed that Mark Teixeira will miss the series. Andrew Miller (3.10 FIP) and deadline pickup Craig Breslow (3.37 FIP) are the two primary left-handers. Former Yankee Mark Melancon (5.24 FIP) joins Junichi Tazawa (2.20 FIP) and the broken Daniel Bard (6.19 FIP) as the right-handed middle relievers. Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill, and former Yankee draft pick Chris Carpenter round out the rest of the bullpen. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for details on the Yankees’ relievers and the aforementioned Over the Monster for the latest and greatest on the Sox.

Rooting for the Orioles (or Rays)

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(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

The Yankees will begin an important series against the Red Sox tonight, but another really important series will open some 400 miles south as well. The second place Orioles are hosting the third place Rays for three games this week, a series that will have a big impact on the AL East race one way or the other. Those clubs will also end the season with three games against each other in St. Pete. As I mentioned yesterday, both teams can’t win those games, and that’s good for New York.

Under the old playoff system, I probably would have rooting for either the Rays or Orioles to sweep all those games. It really wouldn’t have mattered who, the important thing would have been creating separation between the top two teams and the third team in the division. There wasn’t a significant enough advantage to winning the division over skating into the postseason as the wildcard under the old system, so just getting in was the focus. Clinch a postseason berth then worry about the division title was the annual mindset.

That isn’t the case anymore. Capturing that AL East crown is so much more important under the two wildcard system because no one wants to play a do-or-die, win or go home game to decide the season. That means the Yankees absolutely want both the Rays and O’s as far back as possible. Since both teams can’t sweep, the best thing for the Bombers would be for one of those two clubs to take two of three this week. Since Baltimore is one game back and Tampa two, it seems that the Rays taking two would help the Yankees the most. However, since most of us consider Joe Maddon’s club to be the bigger threat, maybe it would be better if the Orioles won the series. There’s no clear right answer here.

Either way, this is all predicated on the Yankees taking care of the Red Sox and everyone else they play from here on out. They have to start winning games consistently to maintain their slim lead. It just so happens that their top two competitors play more than one-quarter of their remaining games against each other, and they’ll theoretically hold each other back for the top spot in the division. The Yankees can only focus on winning their games, but us scoreboard watchers should be hoping that the neither the Rays or Orioles decides to whoop the other this week.

Monday Night Open Thread

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A-Rod really appreciates Russell’s recent strong play. (Rob Carr/Getty)

By my unofficial count, the Yankees are 11-4 and have outscored their opponents 93-60 in 15 games immediately prior to a scheduled off-day this season. I always say off-days feel better coming off a win — especially a big win like yesterday’s — and the Bombers have certainly done well in that department this year. Furthermore, they are 12-2 and have outscored opponents 86-50 in games immediately following an off-day as well. I suppose we could fire up the narrative generator and say that this veteran club really enjoys days off, but who knows. Maybe it’s just a fluke. Either way, let’s hope that trend continues tomorrow in Boston.

Here is your open thread for the evening. The Mets are playing the Nationals (McHugh vs. Gio) and MLB Network will air a game later as well. Who you see depends on where you live. The season-opening Monday Night Football doubleheader features the Bengals at the Ravens (7pm ET) and then the Chargers at the Raiders (10:15pm ET). Talk about any or all of those games here, as well as anything else on your mind. Have at it.

Minor League Update
If you’re looking for a Down on the Farm post tonight, you’re not going to find one because no one is playing. Double-A Trenton has a scheduled off-day as they prepare to begin the best-of-five Eastern League Championship Series against Akron tomorrow night. All of the other affiliates either failed to qualify for the postseason have already been eliminated. So yeah, go Thunder.