NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Mariano Rivera becomes first unanimous Hall of Famer

January 22, 2019 by Mike

The National Baseball Hall of Fame has four new members. Earlier tonight the Hall of Fame and the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Mariano Rivera, Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, and the late Roy Halladay have been voted into the Hall of Fame. They’ll be joined by Harold Baines and Lee Smith during induction weekend. Baines and Smith were voted in by the Today’s Game committee.

“Mariano was a fierce competitor and a humble champion, which has made him such a beloved baseball legend,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement. “Success and stardom never changed Mariano, and his respect for the game, the Pinstripes and for his teammates and opponents alike makes this day such a celebration of his legacy. There will be many more great and talented relief pitchers, but there will never be another like him. This is another incredible achievement for Mariano, and a day like today brings me great pride knowing he wore the Pinstripes for each and every game of his remarkable career.”

Here’s the video of Rivera and his family getting the phone call with the news:

Rivera appeared on all 425 ballots and is the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame. I can’t believe it. Never thought it would happen. It is stunning. Rivera is also the first player originally signed or drafted by the Yankees to be voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA since Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford were voted in back in 1974. (Phil Rizzuto and Joe Gordon were Veterans Committee selections.) Here are the seven highest voting percentages in history:

Mariano Rivera: 100.00%
Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.32%
Tom Seaver: 98.84%
Nolan Ryan: 98.79%
Cal Ripken Jr.: 98.53%
Ty Cobb: 98.23%
George Brett: 98.19%

No other player received at least 98% of the vote. Not Hank Aaron (97.83%), Babe Ruth (95.13%), Willie Mays (94.68%), or Ted Williams (93.38%). Rivera is of course deserving of a perfect voting percentage. He is the greatest reliever in baseball history and it’s not all that close. Especially not once you include his postseason numbers. Consider the all-time postseason win probability added leaderboard:

Mariano Rivera: +11.7
Curt Schilling: +4.1
John Smoltz: +3.6
Andy Pettitte: +3.5
Jon Lester & David Ortiz: +3.2 (tie)

“It’s humbling to think of the incredible journey that Mariano has had over the course of his life — his unassuming beginnings in a Panamanian fishing village to pitching for the Yankees under the brightest lights with the world watching,” Brian Cashman said in a statement. “I speak for every Yankees fan when I say how fortunate we were to have had him on our side for so long. Clearly his World Series rings and longtime statistical dominance testify to his standing among the greats to ever play our sport. But no matter how big a star he became, he never failed to carry himself with unerring professionalism and class. Mo was always someone who I could point to and say, ‘That’s what a Yankee should be like.’”

Rivera retired with a 2.21 ERA — his 205 ERA+ is far and away the best in history among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched (Clayton Kershaw is second with a 159 ERA+) — and a record 652 saves in 1,283.2 regular season innings. He also posted a 0.70 ERA and 42 saves in 141 postseason innings, and 31 times in those 42 saves he recorded at least four outs. Bonkers. A deserving Hall of Famer through and through.

As for Mussina, he became a star with the Orioles and had more wins (147 to 123), starts (288 to 248), and innings (2,009.2 to 1,553) with Baltimore than he did with the Yankees. He was still a great Yankee, however, pitching to a 3.88 ERA (114 ERA+) in eight seasons in pinstripes. Mussina never won a Cy Young or a World Series, but he is one of the ten best pitchers since the mound was lowered 50 years ago, and now he’ll assume his rightful place in Cooperstown.

“I’m so happy to see Moose recognized for his incredible career. Accomplishing what he did while spending all 18 of his seasons in the ultra-competitive AL East is remarkable,” Cashman added. “Unlike the big arms that dominate today’s pitching landscape, Mike was a quintessential craftsman who played up to his strengths and hunted for the weaknesses in his opposition — before that level of preparation was a commonplace thing to do. More importantly though, he was a gamer, plain and simple. He wanted the ball, and did everything within his power to get himself ready to contribute. I don’t get too invested in players’ individual milestones, but I was thrilled that he won 20 games in his final season. He deserved that validation then just like he deserves the validation he’s going to get this summer in Cooperstown.”

I guess it’s fitting Martinez and Halladay are going into the Hall of Fame the same year as Rivera. Edgar is pretty much the only hitter who solved Mariano. Hit .579/.652/1.053 in 23 plate appearances against him. Good gravy. Halladay had a seven or eight-year stretch as the best pitcher in baseball and, as Tom Verducci wrote in 2013, Rivera helped Halladay refine his cutter. Verducci says the Yankees fined Rivera in kangaroo court for that. I was not sad when Halladay got traded to the National League. Not at all.

Andy Pettitte received 9.9% of the vote and will remain on the ballot another year. I don’t think Pettitte is a Hall of Famer but I also didn’t think he’d receive such a low voting percentage. Five percent is needed to remain on the ballot another year and Pettitte cut it close this year. Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot in their first year of eligibility in recent years. Pettitte gets another chance.

Former Yankee Roger Clemens (59.5%) continued to gain Hall of Fame support in his seventh year on the ballot but again fell short of the 75% threshold needed for induction. So did Barry Bonds (59.1%) in his seventh year on the ballot. Fred McGriff, who the Yankees drafted then traded as a prospect, received 39.8% of the vote in his final year of Hall of Fame eligibility. The BBWAA did not vote him in, but don’t worry, one of the new eras committees surely will. The full Hall of Fame voting results are available on the BBWAA’s site.

Next year Derek Jeter will join the Hall of Fame ballot and, like Rivera, he is lock for first ballot induction. Will he be unanimous? Maybe! Former Yankees Bobby Abreu, Eric Chavez, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi, Raul Ibanez, Lyle Overbay, Brian Roberts, and Alfonso Soriano are also due to join the ballot next year. Abreu will get some stathead support. I can’t imagine any of those guys coming close to induction though.

Tuesday Notes: Frazier, Potential Rule Changes, Start Times

January 22, 2019 by Mike

Later today the 2019 National Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced. MLB Network will carry the announcement live at 6pm ET. Spoiler: Mariano Rivera is getting in. Will Mike Mussina? We’ll find out soon enough. Here is the public Hall of Fame ballot tracker and here are some notes to check out.

Frazier cleared for Spring Training

As mentioned by Matt over the weekend, Clint Frazier has been cleared for Spring Training following last year’s battle with a concussion and post-concussion migraines, he announced on Twitter. Pretty great news. A few weeks ago Brian Cashman said Frazier was expected to be cleared for on-field work before camp opened and that is exactly what happened. Clint has been hitting off a tee and playing catch for a few weeks now. Now he can take everything a step forward.

Frazier, 24, hit .311/.389/.574 (170 wRC+) with ten homers in 48 Triple-A games last season. He went 9-for-34 (.265) with three doubles in four separate MLB stints. My guess is the Yankees will have him start the season back in Triple-A to get regular at-bats for at least a few weeks. There is an open bench spot though, and it wouldn’t take much for Frazier to claim it. If he does, Clint could find himself starting in left field before long. I think the Yankees hope it happens by midseason.

MLB, MLBPA meet over potential rule changes

Last week MLB and the MLBPA met to discuss potential rule changes for the upcoming season, report Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) and Tom Verducci. The league is again focusing on pace-of-play matters. Among the items the two sides discussed:

A pitch clock (18 seconds with the bases empty, 20 seconds with men on base)
Reducing the number of available mound visits from six to five
Limiting defensive shifts
An extra-inning tiebreaker rule for Spring Training and the All-Star Game

I can’t imagine being against a runner at second base to begin extra innings in Spring Training and the All-Star Game. Those games are meaningless. Heck, they usually call spring games a tie after nine innings anyway. Just don’t do it in regular season games. Also, I am against limiting defensive shifts. Let teams be creative. Besides, Travis Sawchik found that hitters are starting to adjust to the shift. Give them time to figure it out.

As for the pitch clock, I am all for it. There is too much standing around between pitches. Fix that. At this point many MLB pitchers have used a pitch clock in Double-A and Triple-A, so it wouldn’t require that big of an adjustment. MLB proposed a pitch clock last year, so, even if the MLBPA rejects it again this year, commissioner Rob Manfred can implement it unilaterally. It’s unclear if he’ll do that though. Pace of play is not baseball’s biggest issue. Hardly. It can be improved though, so improve it.

Yankees announce 2019 start times

Earlier this month the Yankees announced individual game start times for the 2019 regular season. You can see them all on the official site. Normally I wouldn’t pass this along, but it’s worth mentioning this year because the Yankees will have more 6:35pm ET starts for midweek home games in 2019. They experimented with the early start times last April and May and apparently they worked well, so we’ll see more of them going forward. A breakdown:

43 home games on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday
18 regular 7:05pm ET starts
16 early 6:35pm ET starts
Five 1pm ET getaway day starts and one 4pm ET getaway day start
Three special occasion 1pm ET starts (Opening Day, Memorial Day, Labor Day)

Those 16 early starts are all in April, May, and September. When the kids are in school, basically. Personally, I love the 6:35pm ET starts. It means less sitting around waiting for the game to start, and getting RAB work (recap, etc.) done earlier. I know I’m in the minority though. Getting to Yankee Stadium after work for a 7pm ET game is tough, especially with the security lines. Instead of missing the first inning, you might miss the first three innings with the early start times. Bummer.

Nolan Arenado and a conveniently timed hot stove rumor

January 22, 2019 by Mike

As busy as the Yankees have been this winter, it would be a surprise at this point if they sign one of the top two free agents. Their interest in Manny Machado has been tepid at best and their interest in Bryce Harper has been virtually nonexistent. That could change in an instant, of course. For now, a Machado or Harper deal continues to seem unlikely. Disappointing!

Over the last few weeks, as the Yankees continued to sign players not named Machado or Harper, a new narrative started to emerge. That narrative: Nolan Arenado is their real target. The superstar Rockies third baseman will be a free agent next winter. Andy Martino is the latest to report it:

Earlier this week, after I published my nine millionth story of the offseason about the Yankees and Manny Machado, a major league source reached out with a suggestion: Don’t sleep on the Yanks and Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado.

…

Meanwhile, people briefed on the Yankees thinking say that GM Brian Cashman — who did not respond to a request for comment — has internally discussed the possibility of trying to trade for Arenado either now or during the season. One source said that the teams have likely talked already, but neither Cashman nor Rockies GM Jeff Bridich have confirmed this.

Passing on Machado and Harper to sign Arenado is a viable strategy, I suppose. I don’t agree with it all, largely because I think Machado and Harper will be better players going forward, and because signing Arenado next offseason doesn’t help the Yankees win this season. They should be doing all they can to win in 2019. Windows can be short, man. You have to capitalize while you can.

That said, yeah, you could argue passing on Harper and especially Machado now to sign Arenado later is a sound strategy. I guess the argument goes something like this: Arenado is an excellent all-around player, he has a much cleaner injury history, and he has long been considered a clubhouse leader with captain potential. Every team wants a player like Arenado. He’s awesome.

Wanting to acquire Arenado is perfectly normal. Martino says the Yankees have “internally discussed” the possibility of pursuing him and guess what? I imagine the other 28 teams have also “internally discussed” going after Arenado. The Yankees aren’t a special case. There are two things about all this Arenado talk that I can’t get out of my head.

1. Why wait for Arenado when Machado is available now? There are several layers to this. One, signing Arenado as a free agent doesn’t help you win this season, as I already noted. That’s kind of a big deal. Sign Machado and he helps you win now. Two, who’s to say Arenado will actually become a free agent next offseason anyway? The Rockies have a history of paying big to keep their own (Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, etc.) and I’m sure they’ll make a run at extending Arenado.

Three, the Yankees could get Arenado now, but then they’d have to pay twice. First in prospects/players to get him in a trade and then with a massive extension to keep him, a massive extension that figures to be on par with the contract Machado will soon sign. And four, the Rockies are good! Back-to-back postseason trips! Why would they trade their best player? Trading for Arenado now doesn’t seem doable. Maybe at the deadline should Colorado fall out of it, and even then we’re back to the “paying twice for him” thing.

While I totally understand wanting Arenado, I just can’t get beyond the whole “Machado is available right now” thing. He’s available right now. Right now. The Yankees could sign him tomorrow, get a player younger and I’d argue better than Arenado, and keep all their prospects. Assuming a trade is off the table given the Rockies’ hopes of contention in 2019, the options are sign 26-year-old Machado now or sign 28-year-old Arenado next winter. Arenado’s great but that is an easy call in my book.

2. This all sounds like spin. Yuuup. In this era of Yankees austerity and general free agent shunnery, I am extremely skeptical of any purported “we’re going to pass on this star player now, but don’t worry, we’ll spend big for a star player next offseason” plan. I mean, didn’t we just go through this with Machado and Harper? Reset the luxury tax now because oh baby wait until those two become free agents! Yeah, worked great.

There will be, always and forever, reasons to not sign a free agent. Arenado’s production outside Coors Field, for example. If you can come up with reasons to pass on Machado and Harper, you can come up with reasons to pass on Arenado. Believe me. This is how I imagine the front office conversation going:

Executive No. 1: “Fans are mad we’re not going to sign Machado, so let’s tell them we’re waiting for Arenado instead.”

Executive No. 2: “Good idea. Then, if Miguel Andujar has a great season, we can tell them we don’t need Arenado because we have our third baseman.”

Executive No. 1: “Perfect. And if Andujar stinks, we’ll put DJ LeMahieu at third and tell everyone we’re waiting for Mike Trout to become a free agent next year.”

Executives No. 1 & 2:

The Arenado stuff seems a little too convenient to me. Conveniently timed (right before Machado and Harper sign) and of convenient substance (don’t worry, we’ll get a star next year). Passing on Machado and Harper will create an overall negative reaction. It’s inevitable. The Arenado stuff seems like an attempt to mitigate the damage because “we already signed LeMahieu and Tulowitzki!” isn’t going to do the trick. I dunno. Shrug.

To be the fair to the Yankees, they have done something like this before. They passed on Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason because they wanted to sign CC Sabathia during the 2008-09 offseason. They rolled the dice and it worked out as well as anyone could’ve hoped. Passing on Machado and Harper now to wait for Arenado later would be a similar move. The Yankees have done this before. It doesn’t make it any less risky, but they have done it before.

Even if the interest in Arenado is sincere and not spin, the baseball reasoning is misguided. These are three similarly excellent players in their mid-20s. Two are available right now for nothing but cash (and a draft pick in Harper’s case). The other may not ever become available, either via trade or free agency. A team that wants to win right now signs Machado or Harper. They don’t wait a year for someone else. The logic that says the Yankees should wait for Arenado is specious.

Arenado is undeniably a great player. Maybe he won’t be as great outside Coors Field, but I’d bet on him still being a 25-homer bat with all-world defense at third base. That guy’s a star. To me though, the “we’re passing on this guy now because we want this guy later” thing is a transparent attempt to shift focus away from what’s happening right now. Baseball teams loving promising things will happen in the future. How often do they follow through? Not often enough for me to buy Arenado as the real reason the Yankees will pass on Machado and Harper.

Previewing the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2019

January 22, 2019 by Mike

Three weeks from tomorrow pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. And, at some point between now and then, the Yankees will announce their non-roster invitees. Those are non-40-man roster players they are bringing to Major League Spring Training. All other non-40-man players go to minor league camp at the Himes Complex across the street.

Non-roster invitees come in all shapes and sizes. Some are top prospects and some are mid-range prospects. Others are veteran journeymen trying to hang on. Teams usually bring 20-25 non-roster players to camp each last year. Last spring the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp. Two years ago it was 23. Expect a similar amount this spring. The 40-man roster plus 20-25 non-roster invitees equals 60-65 total players in Spring Training.

So, with the non-roster invitee list due to be announced in the near future, I figured this is as good a time as any to look at the minor leaguers who could find themselves in big league camp this year. Some are obvious. Many aren’t. Let’s break this down position-by-position.

Catchers

(40-Man Roster Players: Kyle Higashioka, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez)

Every year every team invites a bunch of non-roster catchers to Spring Training. Why? Because who else is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions and simulated games? The workload has to be spread around. And remember, Sanchez is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery. It was his non-throwing shoulder, but still. The Yankees will take it easy on him in February and March because they don’t want to put him at risk of missing time between April and November. Expect to see plenty of non-roster catchers against this spring.

Do not, however, expect to see Anthony Seigler or Josh Breaux, the Yankees’ top two picks in last year’s draft. It is not the appropriate place for them at this point of their careers. Only once in the last 13 years have the Yankees brought their first round pick in the previous year’s draft to Spring Training as a non-roster player. That was James Kaprielian in 2016. Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain didn’t even get non-roster invites in 2007. Seigler and Breaux won’t be in big league camp. It’s not their time.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Ryan Lavarnway, Ryan Lidge, Donny Sands. Add in the three 40-man roster guys and that’s seven catchers total. Plenty for bullpens. Lavarnway signed a minor league deal and has big league time, so it’s safe to assume he’ll be a non-roster guy. Diaz has been a non-roster invitee each of the last three years. The Yankees re-signed him as a minor league free agent a few weeks ago and I’m sure he’ll again be in camp as a non-roster guy.

Lidge was the Yankees’ 20th round pick in 2017 and he played most of his games last year with Double-A Trenton. A catcher with Double-A time is prime “someone to catch spring bullpens” fodder. I’m on the fence about Sands. He has no Double-A time and only 42 High-A games under his belt. I’m just not sure who else it would be with Chace Numata and Jorge Saez, non-roster catchers last year, no longer in the organization. Maybe the Yankees have a low profile catcher signing coming? I could see it. I feel good about Diaz, Lavarnway, and Lidge. The seventh spot is a little more wide open.

Infielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Thairo Estrada, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade)

The Yankees currently have nine infielders on the 40-man roster. Nine! That’s a ton. One of them is Gregorius, who won’t actually play in Spring Training because he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but eight 40-man infielders is still a lot. Torres and Andujar are locked into positions now — that wasn’t the case last spring — but there’s the Tulowitzki comeback attempt and LeMahieu learning how to be a utility guy, so there will be some infield intrigue in Spring Training.

Almost every notable infield prospect in the organization is already on the 40-man roster. Kyle Holder is the exception. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring. He also played only 48 games last season due to injury and family matters, and he was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. I still think the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp as a non-roster guy. Holder’s a relatively recent high draft pick and gosh can the kid play defense. If you stuck around to watch the late innings of Grapefruit League games last year, you saw him play a beautiful shortstop.

Lower level infield prospects like Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, and Hoy Jun Park are not non-roster caliber players. Not right now and, given their development in recent years, maybe not ever. In most other years I’d be tempted to say Brandon Wagner is a non-roster candidate. He reached Double-A last season and finished one off the farm system home run lead. That said, there will be so many 40-man roster infielders in camp this year that I think Wagner gets squeezed out. There are only so many at-bats to go around.

My Prediction: Holder and Gio Urshela. Urshela, like Lavarnway, signed a minor league deal earlier this offseason and has big league time. He’ll be in Spring Training as a non-roster dude. Holder, Urshela, and the 40-man roster guys give the Yankees ten infielders for camp, not including Gregorius. Voit and Bird are the only true first basemen among those ten, but LeMahieu is apparently going to play some first, and both Lavarnway and Diaz have played the position as well. Maybe we’ll even see Andujar at first base. Either way, the Yankees are covered.

Outfielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton)

Frazier was recently cleared to play in Spring Training and that’s great news. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does with good health this season. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is coming back from hip surgery and a few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted Ellsbury is questionable for Opening Day. If he’s questionable for Opening Day, then he’s questionable for Spring Training. So that’s really five healthy 40-man roster outfielders.

The Yankees have several near elite center field prospects but only one, Estevan Florial, will get a Spring Training invite. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring and will be back this year as the team’s top prospect. Others like Everson Pereira and Antonio Cabello will be in minor league camp. Pereira is 17 and Cabello is 18. They are babies. Big league camp is not the right place for them. (Also, Cabello is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery, which is another reason to send him to minor league camp.)

With only five healthy 40-man roster outfielders — and one of those five was only recently cleared for full-fledged baseball activities — it seems to me the Yankees will bring at least one upper level depth outfielder to camp as a non-roster player. The likely candidates: Trey Amburgey, Jeff Hendrix, and Zack Zehner. Hendrix saw quite a bit of time as a minor league call-up in road games last spring. Amburgey is the best prospect of the bunch though, and prospect status tends to break ties.

My Prediction: Amburgey, Florial, Billy Burns, Matt Lipka. Burns and Lipka signed minor league deals earlier this month and the Yankees officially announced both contracts include an invitation to Spring Training, so there you go. There’s no mystery here. They’ll be there. Amburgey, Burns, Florial, and Lipka plus the five healthy 40-man roster guys would give the Yankees nine outfielders in Spring Training. Wade can play the outfield too, so that’s ten. That’s plenty. Part of me wonders if we’ll see LeMahieu out there at some point.

Right-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Chance Adams, Dellin Betances, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Chad Green, Joe Harvey, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and eventually Adam Ottavino)

Heller is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he’s a Spring Training non-factor. I’m looking forward to seeing Abreu and Acevedo in Grapefruit League action, personally. Abreu missed camp last year after having his appendix removed and Acevedo was held back because he spent part of the offseason recovering from a shoulder issue and his velocity was down. I also want to see Harvey because I’ve never seen him before, and Kahnle because I’m curious about his velocity. Hopefully it returns.

Anyway, the Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects. Too bad so many of them are in the low minors. You’re not going to see Luis Medina or Roansy Contreras or even Deivi Garcia in big league camp. Garcia is at best a maybe. I’m not saying that because I don’t like him as a prospect. I do. I’m saying that because history suggests the Yankees will not bring a 19-year-old pitching prospect to big league camp. It’s just not something they do. It’s not something many teams do, in fact.

The second tier pitching prospects though, the 20-somethings with Double-A (and in some cases Triple-A) time? We’ll see a few in camp. Always do. Mike King is an obvious yes. Do what he did last year while reaching Triple-A and you’ve earned yourself a non-roster invite. There’s a pretty good chance King will be called up at some point in 2019 and the Yankees will want him to get to know his teammates and coaches before that, and vice versa. Spring Training is the time to do it. King’s as easy a yes as it gets.

Nick Nelson, Trevor Stephan, and Garrett Whitlock are all potential non-roster candidates as well. So is Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees’ first round pick two years ago, in my opinion. He completed his Tommy John surgery rehab last season and pitched well in his limited game action. The Yankees are set to turn him loose this year and my hunch is that includes a Spring Training invite. He’ll probably be among the first cuts, but I think he’ll be there.

My Prediction: King, Nelson, Schmidt, Raynel Espinal, Danny Farquhar, Drew Hutchison, Brady Lail, one TBD spot. The Yankees reportedly want a swingman/sixth starter type to replace Sonny Gray, hence that TBD spot. Maybe they wind up getting a lefty instead. I’ll play the odds and predict a righty. Anyway, Farquhar and Hutchison signed minor league deals and have big league time, so they’ll be in camp. In fact, the Yankees announced Hutchison’s deal includes a spring invite, so there you go.

Lail’s been a non-roster guy each of the last three years — the Yankees seem to like him despite never calling him up or protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft — and I see no reason to think this spring will be any different. Espinal was a non-roster guy last year and he had a strong Triple-A season, so I think he’s back as well. He’s a potential inventory arm, someone who comes up in an emergency, and candidates for an emergency call-up usually get a Spring Training invite.

I’m going with Nelson over Stephan and Whitlock because, well, I’m kinda guessing here. I think at least one of those three gets a non-roster invite, and Nelson is both the oldest and has been in the system the longest, so I think it’ll be him. If the Yankees bring any other righties to big league camp, I think it’s more likely it’ll be a random Triple-A reliever like Cale Coshow or J.P. Feyereisen than Stephan or Whitlock. Between Hutchison, King, Nelson, and Schmidt, that is plenty of extra multi-inning pitchers.

Left-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, CC Sabathia, Stephen Tarpley)

Montgomery is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and we won’t see him in Grapefruit League games. We might not even see him throw bullpens in Spring Training. Montgomery had his elbow rebuild in June and pitchers usually don’t get back up on a mound until 8-10 months into the rehab process. He’ll just be getting to that point as Spring Training begins, which means little to no action. A bummer, but not a surprise.

The Yankees do not have any notable left-handed pitching prospects now that Justus Sheffield (and Josh Rogers) has been traded. Their best lefty pitching prospect is, uh, Nestor Cortes? Phil Diehl? Not great. Diehl had a statistically excellent 2018 season (2.51 ERA and 2.24 FIP with 36.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks) and the Yankees had him throw simulated at-bats to Judge late in the season, when Judge was coming back from his wrist injury, which tells us the Yankees trust Diehl’s control. Otherwise they wouldn’t have let him pitch to the most valuable player in the organization and risk his wrist getting hit again. Maybe they’ll bring him to camp? Dunno.

My Prediction: Cortes, Diehl, Rex Brothers, Danny Coulombe. Brothers and Coulombe are on minor league contracts and both have quite a bit of big league time, so we know they’ll be in camp. Cortes was in big league camp with the Orioles as a Rule 5 Draft pick last spring — he even made their Opening Day roster — and he had yet another statistically excellent season last year. I think that’s enough to get him to Spring Training this year. Diehl is the token extra lefty reliever.

* * *

Alright, so putting that all together, we come away with 22 potential non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Those 22 players:

Catchers (4): Diaz, Lavarnway, Lidge, Sands or a TBD catcher
Infielders (2): Holder, Urshela
Outfielders (4): Amburgey, Burns, Florial, Lipka
Righties (8): Espinal, Farquhar, Hutchison, King, Lail, Nelson, Schmidt, TBD
Lefties (4): Brothers, Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl

On one hand, the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp last year, 23 the year before that, and 26 in each of the two years before that. Twenty-two this year would be a typical number of non-roster players. On the other hand, the Yankees have at least three (Ellsbury, Heller, Montgomery) and possibly four (Sanchez) 40-man roster players who will be either restricted or completely off-limits in Spring Training. The Yankees might carry more non-roster players than usual to cover for the rehabbing 40-man roster guys.

The farm system isn’t as strong or as deep as it was a few years ago, mostly because the Yankees have graduated so many of their top prospects to the big leagues. Remember when we all couldn’t wait to see Torres or Judge or Severino in camp as non-roster guys? Now they’re no doubt big leaguers. Florial and King will be the obvious “must see” prospects on this year’s non-roster list and, if they get invited, Nelson and Schmidt will be worth watching as well. Also, bet on there being some surprise non-roster invitees this spring. There are always a few.

Reports: Yankees sign Danny Farquhar to minor league deal

January 21, 2019 by Mike

According to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman, the Yankees have signed journeyman right-hander Danny Farquhar to a minor league contract. This will be Farquhar’s second stint in the organization. The Yankees claimed him off waivers from the Athletics in June 2012, then traded him to the Mariners in the Ichiro Suzuki deal a month later.

No matter what he does on the field this season, this is a wonderful story because Farquhar is coming back from a life-threatening brain hemorrhage. While with the White Sox last April he collapsed in the dugout following a relief appearance and had to be rushed to the hospital. The hemorrhage was caused by a ruptured brain aneurysm.

Farquhar spent about three weeks in the hospital and, according to Heyman and Sherman, he’s made a full recovery and is ready to pitch. He was healthy enough to throw out a ceremonial first pitch alongside his teammates, coaches, doctors, and family last June. Check it out:

In parts of seven big league seasons with four different teams the soon-to-be 32-year-old Farquhar has a 3.93 ERA (3.60 FIP) with a 26.9% strikeout rate in 272.1 innings. He had his best season with the Mariners in 2014, when he threw 71 innings with a 2.66 ERA (2.86 FIP). Last season Farquhar allowed five runs in eight innings before the brain hemorrhage.

Now that he’s healthy and given the fact he has a lot of big league time, it’s safe to assume Farquhar received an invitation to big league Spring Training as part of his minor league deal. It probably includes an opt-out if he’s not on the 25-man active roster by a certain date as well. After missing almost all of last season, I have to think Farquhar is ticketed for Triple-A Scranton to begin the season.

Farquhar joins catcher Ryan Lavarnway, infielder Gio Urshela, lefty Rex Brothers, lefty Danny Coulombe, outfielder Billy Burns, righty Drew Hutchison and outfielder Matt Lipka as minor league contract depth pickups this winter.

So long, Sonny: Yankees trade Gray to Reds in three-team deal with Mariners

January 21, 2019 by Mike

It took a little longer than I think everyone expected, but the Yankees have finally traded Sonny Gray. Earlier today the Yankees sent Gray to the Reds in what is essentially a three-team trade with the Mariners. The deals have been announced, so it is official. Here’s the breakdown:

Reds get: Sonny Gray and lefty pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartin
Mariners get: Second base prospect Shed Long
Yankees get: Center field prospect Josh Stowers and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick

Officially, the Yankees traded Gray and Sanmartin for Long and the draft pick, then flipped Long to the Mariners for Stowers. Based on the timestamps on the press releases, Long was officially a Yankee for nine minutes. The Yankees clear a 40-man roster spot with this deal, which means they won’t have to make an additional move when they announce the Adam Ottavino signing.

The Reds were reportedly unwilling to make the trade without signing Gray to a contract extension. The two sides have agreed to a three-year extension covering 2020-22. It is reportedly worth $30.5M. There is also a fourth year club option worth $12M, plus performance bonuses. Add in the one-year contract he already signed for 2019, and Gray’s new deal can max out at $50M across five years. Not bad.

Following the postseason Brian Cashman made it clear he was ready to trade Gray. His market took a little longer to develop than I expected, and the Yankees claimed they wanted to hold on to him following CC Sabathia’s heart procedure, but I never really bought it. It was a matter of “when” they’d trade Gray, not “if.” Cashman and the Yankees made it very clear they were ready to move on.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman in November. “Until someone walks through your door and lives (life as a Yankee), it is hard to know. You try to vet every aspect. You plan and work at it and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.”

“Ultimately, you want to play somewhere where you’re wanted,” said Gray to Mike Organ recently. “… I don’t think it’s a secret to anyone, it’s kind of been an up-and-down experience for me. I’ve loved my time there. I love the guys. It was obviously a difficult season this past year, starting and then going to the bullpen, not pitching as much. But, I mean, I won eleven games last year.”

Gray, 29, came to the Yankees in a deadline deal with the Athletics in 2017. Things started out fine, but he struggled with his control late that season, then things really fell apart last year. All told Gray pitched to a 4.51 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 195.2 innings in pinstripes. That includes a 6.55 ERA (4.97 FIP) in 88 innings at Yankee Stadium and a 2.84 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 107.2 innings on the road. Sonny didn’t mix well with the Bronx for whatever reason.

The 22-year-old Sanmartin came over from the Rangers in a minor trade last offseason and he pitched to a 2.81 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 67.1 innings at four levels last year. I answered a mailbag question about him recently. Sanmartin’s a stats over scouting report prospect who will probably wind up in the bullpen. The Yankees are loaded with lower level arms and Sanmartin is an easy prospect to trade away.

Stowers, 21, was Seattle’s second round pick in last year’s draft. They gave him a $1.1M bonus as the 54th overall selection and he hit .260/.380/.410 (126 wRC+) with five homers and 20 steals in 58 short season league games after turning pro. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Stowers as the tenth best prospect in the Mariners’ system before the trade. Here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report:

The biggest question in projecting Stowers’ future is whether he can stay in center field, because he needs to improve his reads and jumps … his plus speed is enough for the position if he makes the rest of the necessary improvements. Otherwise, a below-average arm would limit him to left field. Stowers’ bat will likely carry him. He has a plus hit tool, and his sharp batting eye is expected to help him at higher levels when pitchers are around the zone more. With average power, Stowers projects to be able to hit 15-20 home runs per year.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Long as the seventh best prospect in the Reds’ system before the trade. Based on the little I know about Long and Stowers, my preference would’ve been to hang on to Long, mostly because I prefer infielders to outfielders and upper level players to lower level players whenever possible. Stowers is just getting his career started and is a few years away. Long might play in MLB this coming season. Shrug.

The draft pick is a pretty big deal. Competitive Balance Round picks are the only draft picks that can be traded — this is the first time the Yankees have ever traded for a pick — and, right now, the draft pick is 36th overall. It could move a little in either direction as the remaining qualified free agents sign, though it’ll be in the mid-30s. The Yankees get the draft pick and the bonus pool money associated with the pick. Last year the 36th overall selection had a $1.97M slot value. An extra pick and all that extra bonus pool money equals more talent for the farm system this summer.

According to my quick math the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll is down to $221M this coming season, which is below the $226M second luxury tax tier. Realistically, there’s no way they can get under the $206M threshold at this point. Staying under the $226M threshold and avoiding the surtax is definitely doable and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the goal. A Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing has felt unlikely for weeks and this trade doesn’t change that.

Aside from a surprise Machado or Harper signing, the only thing the Yankees really have left to do this winter is replace Gray with another swingman/spot starter type. I’d bet on that pitcher making much less than the $7.5M the Yankees were slated to pay Sonny this season. I’ve mentioned Francisco Liriano a few times as a personal favorite for that swingman role. Looking over the list of free agents, others like Jason Hammel and Drew Pomeranz could be swingman candidates. We’ll see.

A reunion with Adam Warren could make sense as the Yanks round out their bullpen

January 21, 2019 by Mike

With Spring Training roughly three weeks away, the Yankees have accomplished their reported goal of adding two relievers this offseason. They re-signed Zach Britton two weeks ago and agreed to a deal with Adam Ottavino last week. Those two join Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder to form a very strong bullpen top six. That’s quite a reliever core.

The Yankees still have two bullpen spots to figure out, assuming they continue forward with an eight-man bullpen. Tommy Kahnle is likely to get a chance to show he can get back to his 2017 form, but, even if he does, the Yankees still want another swingman/sixth starter type to replace the soon-to-be traded Sonny Gray. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga will be stashed in Triple-A as rotation depth. The Yankees still need a long reliever.

Relievers are pretty much the only free agents getting paid these days. Even then, there are still plenty of bullpen arms sitting in free agency. I count 45 of them. Among those 45 is two-time former Yankee Adam Warren, who’s market seems to be heating up. The Rangers want him (per Ken Rosenthal), the Cubs want him (per Rosenthal), and the Mets want him (per Andy Martino). Some team will sign Warren soon enough.

The Yankees have not been connected to Warren at all but a reunion does make some sense even after spending big for Britton and Ottavino. For starters, Warren is still very effective, throwing 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA (3.29 FIP) in pinstripes last year. He wasn’t as good with the Mariners (3.74 ERA and 4.82 FIP) and his career splits are kinda funny:

As a Yankee: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP) and +7.6 WAR in 407 innings
As a Not Yankee: 5.08 ERA (5.42 FIP) and -0.4 WAR in 56.2 innings

We always hear about guys who can’t handle New York. Is there such a thing as a guy who can only handle New York? That might be Warren. In all seriousness, the Yankees know Warren and vice versa, and that’s not nothing. They know they can plug him right into their environment and he’ll handle it well. The ballpark, the clubhouse, the coaching staff, his role in the bullpen. No questions asked.

After returning to the Yankees at the 2016 trade deadline Warren bought into the anti-fastball plan …

… and the result was the best strikeout numbers of his career. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but, in his second stint as a Yankee, Warren struck out 24.4% of the batters he faced. It was 20.3% in his first stint as a Yankee and 19.5% in the season before the trade to the Cubs. Point is, Warren adapted and remained effective, so you know he can make adjustments.

There’s also the multi-inning potential. Warren didn’t do it quite as much last year — eight times in 24 appearances with the Yankees did he record at least four outs — but he still did it, and at age 31, he’s not so past his prime that it’s unreasonable to think he could do it for another year. When your starters don’t pitch deep into games, having a versatile multi-inning reliever in the bullpen is an obvious plus. The Yankees are said to want one.

Warren earned $3.315M last season and my hunch is he’s looking at something along the lines of Jesse Chavez (two years, $8M) and Hector Rondon (two years, $8.5M) money. Maybe he could milk a team for $10M across two years. Either way, that is the kind of contract that can fit into any team’s budget, even if the Yankees consider the $226M second luxury tax tier a hard spending limit. Even though he’d be at best the sixth reliever in the Yankees’ bullpen, Warren has shown over the years how valuable he can be in that role.

The question now is does Warren want to come back to the Yankees? By all accounts he loved being a Yankee and the team appreciated his professionalism and that he’s low maintenance. The Yankees have traded him twice though. Does Warren want to open himself to that possibility again? Would another team offer him a chance at high-leverage work or (gasp) give him a chance to start? I imagine he’d take that over being sixth (at best) on the bullpen depth chart with the Yankees.

Also, money will be a factor. Warren turns 32 in August and this may be his only chance at a nice free agent payday. Being a middle reliever doesn’t pay all that well and there’s minimal job security. Warren earned $8.9M in player contracts during his six years of team control, so while he’s done well, he hasn’t cashed in huge. This offseason might be his only chance at a good free agent deal. I’d bet on Warren signing with the highest bidder regardless of his role with the team. Gotta cash in while you can.

The Yankees don’t have to spend big on another reliever after signing Ottavino. The goal now is adding depth — quality depth — and a reunion with Warren would strengthen one of those final two bullpen spots. Maybe he can’t be a true sixth starter, but he can be a long guy. The Yankees know Warren and Warren knows the Yankees. As the seventh or eighth guy in the bullpen, the Yankees could do a heck of a lot worse than a third stint with Warren.