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Poll: After Derek Jeter, who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame?

January 24, 2019 by Mike

Mariano Rivera made history throughout his 19-year career and he made history again earlier this week, when he became the first ever unanimous selection to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. All 425 voters named him on their ballot. I didn’t think it would happen but it did, and it’s pretty awesome. Couldn’t pick a better player to be the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

Mike Mussina, Rivera’s teammate with the Yankees for eight years, was also voted into the Hall of Fame earlier this week. Mussina has not yet decided whether he’ll wear a Yankees hat or an Orioles hat on his Hall of Fame plaque, though he did have more wins (147 to 123), more innings (2,009.2 to 1,553), more All-Star appearances (five to zero), and more WAR (+47.8 to +35.2) with the O’s. Going in as an Oriole seems appropriate.

Derek Jeter joins the Hall of Fame ballot next year and, like Rivera, he is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. He might even be unanimous! That would be fun, Rivera and Jeter being the first two unanimous Hall of Famers. Either way, Jeter is getting into the Hall of Fame next year. There’s no doubt about it. After that though, it might be a while until another Yankee gets voted into Cooperstown.

Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada have already dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot, having received less than the 5% needed to remain on the ballot another year. (Williams did spend two years on the ballot. Posada dropped off in year one.) Don Mattingly exhausted his 15 years on the ballot without being voted into the Hall of Fame. I suppose one of the eras committees could vote him in a la Harold Baines. We’ll see.

We know Jeter will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America. We don’t know who will be the next after that. Let’s go through the upcoming candidates, shall we? Here are the Yankees due to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the coming years.

2020 ballot

Jeter is the big name here. He’s the only slam dunk Hall of Famer joining the ball next year. Also joining the ballot are former Yankees Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and Alfonso Soriano. Abreu has a stathead case for Cooperstown but, if he gets in, he’ll have a Phillies cap on his plaque. He played more games with the Phillies (1,353) than all other teams combined (1,072).

Giambi played more games with the Athletics (1,036) than the Yankees (897), plus he won an MVP and finished second in the MVP voting while with the A’s. Also, there’s the performance-enhancing drug thing. Giambi gave that vague apology for letting people down without ever saying what he did, but we all know what he was talking about. So many Hall of Fame voters are dug in against PEDs that, even if Giambi’s case were stronger than it actually is, I still don’t think he’d get in.

Soriano played more games with the Cubs (889) than the Yankees (626) but he had some of his best seasons in pinstripes. He led the league in hits (209) and homers (41) in 2002 and finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting and third in the MVP voting while with the Yankees. Soriano’s best season, his 40/40 season (46 homers and 41 steals) came with the Nationals in 2006.

I don’t think Giambi has a chance at the Hall of Fame because of the PED stuff. Abreu and Soriano strike me as Hall of Very Good players rather than Hall of Famers, and hey, there’s nothing wrong with that. They had great careers and made tons of dough. Also, we’re looking for the next Yankee Hall of Famer here, and I don’t think Giambi, Abreu, or Soriano would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque even if they get in. They did more with other teams.

The best player with a chance to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee next year other than Jeter is Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was on the ballot for the first time this year and he received only 9.9% of the vote. He’s much, much closer to falling off the ballot than he is getting the 75% needed for induction into Cooperstown. It took Mussina six years on the ballot to get into the Hall of Fame. I have to think it’ll take Pettitte at least that long, if not longer to gain induction.

2021 ballot

There are no slam dunk Hall of Famers set to join the ballot in 2021, Yankees or otherwise. The best players joining the ballot are probably Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle. The best former Yankees set to join the ballot are A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher. Next.

2022 ballot

Now we’re talking. Alex Rodriguez joins the ballot in three years and his career was very obviously worthy of the Hall of Fame. There’s no arguing with the raw numbers. A-Rod is one of the 10-15 best players in the game’s history and, if you take his career at face value, he should be a unanimous selection. You can’t take his career at face value though. Rodriguez admitted to using PEDs and served a year-long suspension for a separate PED transgression.

If Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens do not get into the Hall of Fame, A-Rod has little hope of getting in. The voting body is skewing younger and thus more forgiving of PEDs, but so many voters are dug in on this subject and will not change their minds. Jeff Passan recently spoke to voters who do not vote for Bonds or Clemens and it’s clear where they stand. Bonds and Clemens have seen their support plateau in recent years. It would take a sea change in the Hall of Fame voting for them to get in before their eligibility expires in three years.

In the unlikely event he does get voted into Cooperstown, it’s safe to assume A-Rod would go in as a Yankee. He played more games as a Yankee (1,509) than he did as a Mariner and Ranger combined (1,275), plus he won two MVPs in pinstripes and his World Series ring. More games, more homers (351 to 345), more hardware, more rings as a Yankee than everywhere else combined. Should he get in — assuming Rodriguez stays on the ballot all ten years, his final year of eligibility will be 2031, which is a looong ways away — A-Rod would go in as a Yankee.

The other notable former Yankee joining the ballot in three years is Mark Teixeira. My hunch is that, if Fred McGriff was unable to get into the Hall of Fame, Teixeira won’t get in either. Teixeira did hit 409 homers and he led the league in homers and total bases once (39 and 344 in 2009, respectively), but that’s pretty much it. Teixeira did play more games as a Yankee (958) than as a Ranger, Brave, and Angel combined (904), so if he gets into the Hall of Fame, I think he’d go in as a Yankee. I’m just not sure he’s getting in.

2023 ballot

The only serious Hall of Fame candidate joining the ballot in four years is Carlos Beltran. I think he’ll get into Cooperstown. If not on the first ballot, than eventually. Beltran is an unlikely candidate to be the next Yankee in the Hall of Fame simply because he played the bulk of his career elsewhere. Only 341 of his 2,586 career games came in pinstripes, or 13.2%. I guess Beltran would go into the Hall of Fame as a Royal or Met? Either way, it won’t be as a Yankee, so Beltran’s not the answer to our question.

2024 ballot

Players who retired following last season will be eligible for Hall of Fame induction in 2024. That means Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, and David Wright. They combined for zero (0) games as a Yankee. Matt Holliday and Curtis Granderson could also join the Hall of Fame ballot in five years if they fail to find work this winter. Holliday spent one kinda crummy year with the Yankees. He’d go in as a Rockie or Cardinal. Granderson had some of his best seasons in pinstripes but played more games with the Tigers (674) and Mets (573) than the Yankees (513). Love the Grandyman but I don’t see him as a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Active players

Ichiro Suzuki is a clear cut Hall of Famer and he’s going in as a Mariner, as he should. That leaves two active players who spend the bulk of their careers with the Yankees and deserve serious Hall of Fame consideration: Robinson Cano and CC Sabathia. This offseason’s trade ensures Cano would go into Cooperstown as a Yankee. He’ll split the second half of his career between (at least) two teams, meaning he won’t be able to accomplish enough with the Mariners to change his legacy from Yankees great to Mariners great.

Cano of course served a PED suspension last year, which likely ruins his chances at the Hall of Fame. Manny Ramirez has no-doubt Hall of Fame credentials, but, because he served two PED suspensions, he hasn’t topped 24% of the vote in his three years on the Hall of Fame ballot. Cano is closing in on 3,000 hits and Jeff Kent’s home run record for second basemen. Robbie’s the best second baseman of his generation. The suspension means he has a tough hill to climb.

Assuming Cano finishes out the final five years on his contract, that means he’s ten years away from appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot and 20 years away from exhausting his ten years on the ballot. We could still be talking about Robbie being on the ballot as a potential Hall of Famer in 2038! That’s an awfully long way away, man. The voting body can and will change between now and then, and a PED suspension may not be as much of a dealbreaker then as it is now. We’ll see.

Sabathia has more wins (129 to 117) and more starts (284 to 254) as a Yankee than he did as an Indian and Brewer combined, though he has slightly less WAR (+29.7 to +32.5). Also, Sabathia won his Cy Young in Cleveland and split 2008, his best individual season, between the Indians and Brewers. He won his World Series ring (and ALCS MVP) as a Yankee and has three top four finishes in the Cy Young voting in pinstripes. At some point this year he’ll record his 250th win and 3,000th strikeout, which is pretty cool.

I believe Sabathia would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque. The real question is whether he gets into Cooperstown. Mussina was an objectively better pitcher and he had to wait six years on the ballot to get in. Pettitte was a notch below Sabathia but he has the whole legacy Yankee thing going for him, and he didn’t come close to induction this year. (Pettitte is an admitted human growth hormone user though.) Sabathia will retire after this season and that means he’ll hit the Hall of Fame ballot in 2025. If he gets into the Hall of Fame, it’ll probably take several years on the ballot a la Mussina (and Pettitte).

Looking more long-term, Giancarlo Stanton is on a potential Hall of Fame track seeing how he’s at 300 homers and +40 WAR through his age 28 season. Five-hundred homers and +65 WAR is well within reach. Aroldis Chapman is like 60% of the way to Billy Wagner’s career at this point and Wagner hasn’t come close to induction yet, so Chapman has an uphill climb. Aaron Judge was a bit of a late-bloomer (he played his first MLB season at age 25), which puts him behind the Hall of Fame eight-ball. Gary Sanchez? Gleyber Torres? Miguel Andujar? Luis Severino? Great talents who are a long, long way from the Cooperstown combination.

What about Dellin Betances? He is the best setup man of his generation (yup) and it’s possible that, by time he’s eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, the voters may have very different standards for relief pitchers. As long as Wagner stays so far away from induction — this was Wagner’s fourth year on the ballot and he’s yet to receive even 17% of the vote — I can’t see Betances as a serious Hall of Fame candidate. Gosh, it would be fun though, wouldn’t it?

* * *

We know Jeter will be voted into the Hall of Fame next year. That is a certainty. The next Yankee to go into the Hall of Fame after Jeter is up in the air, largely because A-Rod and Cano have served PED suspensions, which significantly lowers their chances of winding up in Cooperstown. Since we’re here, we might as well turn this into a poll, so let’s get to it.

Who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame after Jeter?

Sorting out the projected 2019 Triple-A Scranton roster

January 24, 2019 by Mike

In the current age of baseball a 25-man roster is not enough. Teams have an active 25-man roster each night, yes, but there are also a handful of players in Triple-A who shuttle back and forth as needed. New middle relievers are brought in almost daily and teams even swap out bench players for matchup purposes going into a series. There’s the 25-man roster and a Triple-A taxi squad.

Last season 49 different players appeared in a game for the Yankees, and that doesn’t include Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo, who were called up for a day (twice, in Bollinger’s case) but did not appear in a game. A total of 1,379 players appeared in an MLB game last season, or 46 per team on average. The Blue Jays led the way with 63 different players, three more than any other team. The Rockies and Astros used only 41 players apiece, somehow.

The Yankees no longer have a top notch farm system but they do have a good farm system. So much of their talent is in the lower minors though, and thus is not a realistic option to be called up this year. The Triple-A taxi squad will likely feature many players we’ve seen already, either guys who were up last year in a similar capacity, or filled a similar role with another team. Some young minor leaguers, some veteran journeymen.

Because the Triple-A roster is now an extension of the MLB roster, I think it’s important to look at the projected Triple-A roster to figure out who fits where, and who could be a call-up option. On paper, the big league roster is fairly set. The Yankees don’t have many open spots or undecided roles, which makes this exercise a little easier. There’s not as much guesswork as usual. Let’s start with position players. Here are the Triple-A roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Francisco Diaz	Mandy Alvarez	Trey Amburgey	Devyn Bolasky
Kyle Higashioka*	Greg Bird*	Billy Burns	Billy Fleming
Ryan Lavarnway	Thairo Estrada*	Clint Frazier*	L.J. Mazzilli
	Mike Ford	Jeff Hendrix	Ryan McBroom
	Kyle Holder	Matt Lipka
	Gosuke Katoh	Zack Zehner
	Gio Urshela
	Luke Voit*
	Tyler Wade*

At the moment the Yankees have one bench spot unaccounted for at the big league level. That’s it. Assuming another three-man bench/eight-man bullpen, the other eleven position player spots have been accounted for already. Injuries could change things, of course, and they will, but right now all but one of the 12 position player spots are filled. That makes life easy here. Let’s go through the Triple-A position players.

Catcher: Always the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are locked into big league roster spots, leaving Higashioka (the up-and-down third catcher) and Lavarnway (has MLB time) for Triple-A Scranton. Diaz figures to bounce between Double-A and Triple-A as needed, which he’s done the last few seasons. Higashioka and Lavarnway will be Scranton’s catchers.

Infielders: Earlier this month Brian Cashman said Voit will be the big league starting first baseman “unless Bird beats him out,” and right now my guess is Bird will not beat him out in Spring Training. Voit was the starter to finish last season and I’ll bet on him being the starter to begin this season. We can remove Voit from Triple-A consideration.

That said, I think the chances of Bird getting the final big league bench spot are annoyingly high. He seems immune to being sent down. Even last August, after Voit took the first base job, the Yankees kept Bird on the bench rather than send him down for at-bats. I don’t get it. If he loses the first base job, he should be sent down, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be the final bench guy.

Because of that I’m going to assume Bird is in the big leagues, meaning Wade and Estrada are definitely in Triple-A, as is Ford. Urshela has big league time and was the RailRiders’ best hitter late last season, so he’ll of course be in Triple-A as well. That’s the starting infield right there. Urshela, Estrada, Wade, and Ford around the horn. Holder’s going to play everyday in Double-A, not sit on the Triple-A bench. That leaves Alvarez and Katoh for possible bench roles. We’ll get to them in a bit.

Outfielders: Bird getting the final MLB bench spot means Frazier goes to Triple-A, which is fine with me. He missed the end of last season with post-concussion symptoms and getting him regular at-bats in the minors wouldn’t be the worst thing. I expect Frazier to be at least platooning with Brett Gardner in left field by the end of the season, if not playing the position on an everyday basis. For now, he’s Scranton bound.

Burns has big league time and is ticketed for Triple-A. Lipka getting an invite to Spring Training leads me to believe the Yankees are not planning to send him down to Double-A, where he played most of last year. If Lipka is ticketed for Triple-A, it leaves Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner for the fourth outfielder’s spot. Zehner has spent the last year and a half in Triple-A and Hendrix has spent the last year and a half in Double-A. Hmmm.

Amburgey had a good but not great year in Double-A last season and, if Lipka is going to Triple-A, I think Amburgey goes back to Double-A to play every day. If the Yankees are willing to send Lipka to Double-A, then Amburgey would go to Triple-A. My hunch is Lipka to Triple-A, Zehner as Scranton’s fourth outfielder, and Amburgey and Hendrix to Double-A. Once the inevitable injury or call-up strikes, Amburgey or Hendrix gets moved up.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Lavarnway), four infielders (Estrada, Ford, Urshela, Wade), and four outfielders (Burns, Frazier, Lipka, Zehner). That leaves two open position player spots and, honestly, these are easy calls. It should be Mazzilli and McBroom. They have the most Triple-A time among the remaining players and they’d allow Alvarez and Katoh to play everyday in Double-A. Bolasky and Fleming are organizational utility guys who’ve been bouncing from level-to-level the last few years. No reason to think they won’t do it again.

The Triple-A position player side of things was pretty easy this year because the Yankees have all but one of their big league position player spots filled. Last year we were trying to figure out what to do with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. That’s not the case now. Anyway, for the heck of it, here’s a potential RailRiders’ lineup based on everything we just talked out:

1. 2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade
2. 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada
3. OF Clint Frazier
4. 1B/DH Mike Ford
5. 1B/DH Ryan McBroom
6. 3B/SS Gio Urshela
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. OF Billy Burns
9. OF Matt Lipka

Bench: C Lavarnway, IF Mazzilli, OF Zehner

The RailRiders had some absurdly strong lineups last year before injuries and the trade deadline thinned out the roster. The projected 2019 lineup I have above is quite strong for Triple-A. Devoid of prospects (Estrada is the only actual prospect in that lineup now that Wade and Frazier have graduated to MLB) but still strong. The RailRiders will score some runs this coming season. Now let’s get to the pitching staff.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Cale Coshow	Rex Brothers
Chance Adams*	Raynel Espinal	Danny Coulombe
Luis Cessa*	J.P. Feyereisen	Phil Diehl
Nestor Cortes	Joe Harvey*	Stephen Tarpley*
Domingo German*	Ben Heller*
Drew Hutchison	Tommy Kahnle*
Brian Keller	Brady Lail
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga*

The Sonny Gray trade means the Yankees now have two open big league bullpen spots. By no means do I think this is set in stone, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cessa and Kahnle have a leg up on those two bullpen spots because they are out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers. I don’t think either would clear. If A.J. Cole got claimed earlier this month, Cessa and Kahnle would get claimed.

Because of that, I’m going to assume Cessa and Kahnle are getting the final two big league bullpen spots for the purposes of this exercise. I’m also assuming Heller won’t be ready to pitch Opening Day. He had his Tommy John surgery on April 7th last year and is likely looking at a May or June return. We can remove him from consideration for the RailRiders’ pitching staff. There are 20 names in the table. Removing Cessa, Kahnle, and Heller leaves up 17 candidates for the 13-man Triple-A pitching staff.

Starters: Is it me or does this seem completely obvious? Adams, German, Hutchison, King, and Loaisiga should be the Triple-A Scranton starters to begin the season. Keller is a fringe prospect who was just okay with Double-A Trenton last year. Sending him back there is no big deal. Cortes has done the Triple-A swingman thing plenty already and I think he’s headed for that role again.

That leaves Acevedo, who has a strong case to begin the season in Triple-A after throwing 144 very good (2.63 ERA and 3.06 FIP) innings with Double-A Trenton the last two years. There is a numbers crunch here though. Adams, German, King, and Loaisiga are legitimate prospects (German’s exhausted his rookie eligibility but you know what I mean) who need to work on things in Triple-A and also stay ready for a possible call-up. Hutchison didn’t sign with the Yankees to be a Triple-A long man.

Because of that, I think Acevedo is ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin the season, which is not the end of the world. Someone will get hurt or traded or called up before April ends, at which point Acevedo can come up and assume the rotation spot. Besides, after missing so much time last year, I kinda want to see Acevedo miss bats in Double-A again (20.2% strikeouts last year) before moving him up. Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga is the tentative Triple-A rotation in whatever order, and I feel pretty good about that.

Relievers: Cortes is likely to again serve as the heavily used swingman — part of me wonders whether the Yankees would use a six-man rotation in Scranton to begin the season (probably not) — and the rest of the bullpen falls into place behind him. Espinal and Harvey were a dynamite setup man/closer combination for the RailRiders last year and they’ll do it again this year. Tarpley will join them as a late-inning option.

Brothers and Coulombe have big league time and are on minor league contracts, so they’re going to Triple-A, not Double-A. Coshow and Feyereisen spent most of last year in Triple-A as well and it’s safe to expect them to return to Scranton to begin the season. That’s eight relievers right there. Here’s our final product pitching staff:

Starters: Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga
Relievers: Brothers, Cortes, Coshow, Coulombe, Espinal, Feyereisen, Harvey, Tarpley

That assumes Kahnle and Cessa are in the big leagues and Heller will still be rehabbing come Opening Day. Acevedo, Keller, and Diehl go to Double-A. Diehl threw only 26.2 innings at Double-A last year, so going back there to begin this season is no big deal. Lail draws the short straw and is the odd man out, but he bounced back and forth between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and doing it again wouldn’t surprise me. He’s been passed by several others in the organization, like Harvey and Tarpley.

I should note it is not uncommon for a Triple-A team to carry nine relievers and two bench players at various points throughout the season, especially in April, when young starters are still getting stretched all the way out. Lail’s the obvious candidate to be the ninth reliever and I imagine McBroom would get dropped from the position player group to open a spot. Zehner has more Triple-A time and Mazzilli can play anywhere. McBroom rode the Double-A/Triple-A shuttle last year and he’d do it again this year.

Update: I completely forgot about the recently signed Danny Farquhar. He’s obviously going to Triple-A. I think that would mean Coshow gets pushed down to Double-A since he struggled with the RailRiders last year. My bad.

Wade (infield), Frazier (outfield), and Higashioka (catcher) are poised to be the regular up-and-down position players this season. Estrada lost essentially an entire season to injury last year and figures to stay in Triple-A to make up for that lost time. Pitching staff call-ups are a little more up in the air because they depend as much on who’s available (so and so started yesterday, etc.) as they do who the Yankees want to call up. Because the MLB roster is fairly set right now, piecing together the Triple-A team is fairly straightforward. At least until injuries and call-ups throw a wrench into things.

Searching for DJ LeMahieu’s true talent level on offense

January 24, 2019 by Mike

Two weeks ago the Yankees made their most surprising offseason addition. They inked free agent infielder DJ LeMahieu to a two-year contract worth $24M, and I call it surprising because it came out of nowhere. There were no rumors connecting the Yankees to LeMahieu leading up to the deal. It was a regular old Friday, then bam, the Yankees had a deal with LeMahieu. Came out of nowhere.

The Yankees intend to use LeMahieu as a super utility infielder — “I was told to bring a lot of gloves,” he said during his introductory conference call — which is fine, I guess. My preference would be Gleyber Torres at shortstop and LeMahieu at second base full-time, but the Yankees are committed to giving Troy Tulowitzki a chance to play short, so it is what it is. LeMahieu will be a utility guy.

Although he’s been a full-time second baseman his entire career, my guess is LeMahieu will be more than fine at third base and good enough at first base. He has some experience at first and third, so they won’t be completely new to him. He’s a great second baseman though. That is his best position on the field. “(I’m) pretty comfortable playing multiple positions,” LeMahieu added.

We have a pretty good idea what LeMahieu will do defensively. He’ll be great at second and probably good enough at first and third. What he’ll do offensively is much less clear. Coors Field creates some questions. The numbers:

LeMahieu at home, 2018: .317/.360/.433 (85 wRC+)
LeMahieu on the road, 2018: .229/.277/.422 (85 wRC+)

LeMahieu at Coors Field, career: .329/.386/.447 (96 wRC+)
LeMahieu outside Coors Field, career: .267/.314/.367 (84 wRC+)

Pretty significant difference! There’s no doubt Coors Field boosted LeMahieu’s offensive numbers. That is the case for every Rockies player. That said, Coors Field park factors are wonky, and there is evidence of a Coors Field hangover effect. Pinning down someone’s true talent level when they play at altitude is awfully tough.

Generally speaking, Rockies players tend to perform better than expected at home and worse than expected on the road. Taking LeMahieu’s numbers outside Coors Field and declaring that the real him is overly simplistic and unfair, if not lazy. The truth is somewhere between the home and road stats. Where exactly in the middle? Let’s try to figure it out. Here’s what we know about LeMahieu.

1. He hits the ball really hard. And this isn’t something you can fake. Here is LeMahieu’s Statcast profile. He is in the 88th percentile in exit velocity and the 78th percentile in hard contact, leading to a high expected batting average (xBA).

Coors Field does not boost exit velocity. A 95 mph line drive will travel farther in Coors Field than it will at sea level because the thin air provides less resistance, but Coors Field doesn’t turn a 95 mph line drive into a 98.5 mph line drive or whatever. Exit velocity is unchanged. To wit:

LeMahieu at home, 2018: 90.8 mph average exit velocity
LeMahieu on the road, 2018: 91.4 mph

LeMahieu at home, 2015-18: 90.3 mph
LeMahieu on the road, 2015-18: 89.8 mph

Coors Field can turn a .280 hitter into a .300 hitter, and a 25-homer guy into a 32-homer guy. It won’t turn an average exit velocity guy into Aaron Judge. A player’s strength and bat speed is what it is. It doesn’t change ballpark to ballpark. LeMahieu hit the ball hard everywhere he played, and unless he gets hurt or loses bat speed to age-related decline, he should continue to hit the ball going forward.

2. He hits the ball on the ground a lot. All that hard contact has not translated into extra-base hits and power because LeMahieu puts the ball on the ground often. His 49.6% ground ball rate last year was a) 22nd highest among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, and b) his lowest as a big leaguer. LeMahieu’s career ground ball rate is 53.8%.

There was a period last season where it appeared LeMahieu was making a conscious effort to hit the ball in the air, but it did not last. By the end of the season his ground ball rate was right back where it normally sits. Check it out:

Hitting a lot of ground balls is not automatically a bad thing. Not when you have above-average exit velocity like LeMahieu. Ground balls do put a ceiling on a player’s offensive output though. Ground balls don’t go for extra-base hits often and they never go over the fence. That’s why, despite playing in Coors Field, LeMahieu has never bested a .160 ISO. Only once has he managed a .430 SLG.

At this point, at age 30 and with more than six years in the big leagues, I reckon LeMahieu has tried to hit more balls in the air at some point. The Rockies are not the most analytically inclined organization but they’re not stupid. They know hitting the ball in the air is a good thing, especially at Coors Field. I’m sure LeMahieu and the Rockies have tried lowering his ground ball rate already. It’s not easy, and, if they did try it, it didn’t work.

Because he doesn’t hit the ball in the air often, it seems to me LeMahieu’s offense is less reliant on Coors Field than the typical Rockies hitter. Balls hit on the ground don’t benefit from reduced air resistance. It’s just a ground ball. In theory, LeMahieu’s offense should carry over well to Yankee Stadium. A ground ball is a ground ball is a ground ball. As long as the hard hit rate stays strong, LeMahieu’s production may not suffer much with the ballpark change.

3. His plate discipline is very good. Better than I realized. Last year’s 6.4% walk rate and his career 7.3% walk rate do not stand out. At all. Both are below the 8.5% league average. Walks are not the goal of plate discipline, however. They’re a byproduct. The goal of plate discipline is swinging at strikes and taking balls, and getting into good hitter’s counts. Getting hittable pitches, basically.

Last year LeMahieu posted a 25.4% chase rate, which was 32nd lowest among those 140 qualified hitters. He chased pitches out of the zone at a similar rate as plate discipline extraordinaires Brett Gardner (23.5%) and Paul Goldschmidt (26.0%). When LeMahieu stopped chasing pitches a few years ago, his offensive production ticked up. That is not a coincidence.

LeMahieu may not draw many walks, but he knows a ball from a strike, and that is pretty important. Not many hitters can succeed while swinging at bad pitches consistently. Guys like Vlad Guerrero and Jose Altuve are special for a reason. LeMahieu won’t get himself out by chasing pitches out of the zone.

4. He makes a lot of contact. The Yankees are loaded with monster hitters who hit for power and, in some cases, swing and miss quite a bit. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are awesome. They will strike out though. LeMahieu struck out in 14.1% of his plate appearances last year, well below the 22.3% league average. He also doesn’t miss pitches in the strike zone. Here is the zone contact rate leaderboard for the last two seasons:

Michael Brantley: 96.7%
Jose Peraza: 94.1%
DJ LeMahieu: 93.6%
Denard Span: 93.6%
Joe Mauer: 93.4%

LeMahieu doesn’t chase out of the zone, and when he does swing at pitches in the zone, he rarely misses. Put it all together and you have a hitter who knows a ball from a strike, doesn’t miss when he swings at pitches in the zone, and produces above-average exit velocities when he puts the ball in play. Too bad he puts the ball on the ground so often. LeMahieu has the profile of a hitter who could do a lot of damage with a little more launch angle.

* * *

There have been shockingly few hitters within the last five years who played everyday for the Rockies, changed teams in the offseason, then played everyday for another team. Dexter Fowler and Corey Dickerson. That’s pretty much it. Guys like Daniel Descalso and Nick Hundley are part-time players, and Matt Holliday missed a ton of time with the Yankees. Both Fowler and Dickerson predictably saw their performances dip after leaving Coors Field:

Dickerson’s last two years with Rockies: .309/.354/.556
Dickerson’s first two years after Rockies: .265/.310/.480

Fowler’s last two years with Rockies: .282/.379/.442
Fowler’s first two years after Rockies: .261/.358/.406

Here’s the thing: Dickerson and Fowler are very different hitters than LeMahieu. They both put the ball in the air a ton. Fowler’s career ground ball rate is 42.3%. Dickerson’s is 38.7%. They put the ball in the air and let it carry at Coors Field. LeMahieu did not do that. Also, Dickerson and Fowler swung and missed more often than LeMahieu. Looking at previous Rockies hitters who left Coors Field doesn’t help us much.

We know LeMahieu produces higher than average exit velocities and ground ball rates. He doesn’t chase out of the zone and he doesn’t swing and miss in the zone, which contributes to the above-average exit velocity. He’s not lunging at pitches. He’s squaring them up. Since Statcast became a thing in 2015, LeMahieu has hit more total ground balls with an exit velocity of 90 mph or better than anyone in baseball. The leaderboard:

DJ LeMahieu: 562 grounders at 90 mph or better
Nick Markakis: 539
Christian Yelich: 530
Eric Hosmer: 517
Jean Segura: 489

Over the last four seasons grounders with an exit velocity of at least 90 mph have produced a .406 AVG and a .036 ISO league-wide. For LeMahieu, it’s a .409 AVG and a .021 ISO. There’s no Coors Field boost there and why would there be? The thin air doesn’t have much effect on ground balls because … wait for it … they’re not hit in the air.

It seems to me LeMahieu has a batted ball profile that travels well. Despite being a right-handed hitter who goes the other way often, LeMahieu doesn’t figure to benefit much from the Yankee Stadium short porch because he’s a ground ball guy. He also doesn’t figure to lose much when he leaves Coors Field because he didn’t use the thin air and the extra carry as often as he probably would’ve liked.

Now, that all said, LeMahieu’s numbers were better at Coors Fields than on the road, and substantially so. That’s because he did hit some balls in the air, of course, and also because there is some evidence Rockies hitters take a hit offensively when they leave altitude. Because the seams on a pitched ball interact with the air differently at altitude than they do at sea level, Rockies hitters see one set of breaking balls at home and another on the road, often in back-to-back series, and that can be tough.

LeMahieu’s expected batting average and actual batting average have been quite high in recent years because of those well-struck ground balls. They tend to go for base hits unless they’re hit right at someone. I expect there to be some performance decline because LeMahieu did hit some balls in the air and did benefit somewhat from Coors Field. I think the performance dip will be smaller than you might expect because he doesn’t rely on fly balls. Those well-struck grounders will still go for base hits in Yankee Stadium just like they did in Colorado.

Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus release 2019 top 100 prospects lists

January 23, 2019 by Mike

Top 100 prospect ranking season has officially arrived. Earlier today Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Baseball Prospectus (no subs. req’d) both released their annual top 100 lists. Well, Baseball Prospectus released a top 101 list. Everyone else releases a top 100 list.

As noted earlier, the Yankees did not have anyone on Baseball America’s list. Kyle Glaser said OF Estevan Florial did receive consideration for the top 100, but concerns about his pitch recognition kept him off the list. Pitch recognition is the biggest development hurdle for Florial going forward.

The Yankees did have two prospects on the Baseball Prospectus list, however. Here are those two along with some other notable prospects:

1. 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
11. OF Taylor Trammell, Reds (Yankees asked for him in Sonny Gray trade talks)
50. LHP Justus Sheffield, Mariners (traded to the Mariners for James Paxton)
64. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
66. OF Estevan Florial

Baseball America also had Vlad Jr. in the top spot. That kid will be A Problem. Baseball America had Sheffield at No. 27 and Trammel at No. 33. Sheffield ranked as their 12th best pitching prospect overall and their third best left-handed pitching prospect behind A’s LHP Jesus Luzardo and A’s LHP A.J. Puk.

As for the two Yankees prospects, Loaisiga over Florial surprises me a bit, especially because Baseball Prospectus tends to skew toward upside and long-term potential with their rankings. Loaisiga’s really good but he also comes with a ton of injury risk. Then again, the difference between No.64 and No. 66 on a top 100 list is nothing, so I wouldn’t sweat it.

MLB.com will announce their top 100 list during a live MLB Network broadcast this weekend (8pm ET on Saturday). Keith Law’s top 100 is due out sometime next week. I reckon we’ll see Florial on both lists. Loaisiga is a maybe only because that injury history is scary. There are healthier pitchers with similar potential in the minors who figure to rank ahead of him.

Prospect Profile: Josh Stowers

January 23, 2019 by Mike

Josh Stowers | OF

Background
Stowers, 22 next month, grew up outside Chicago in Westchester, Illinois. He hit .352/.463/.508 with two home runs as a senior at Mount Caramel High School and Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 490th best prospect in the 2015 draft class. Despite that, Stowers went undrafted out of high school and instead followed through on his commitment to the University of Louisville. (Stowers, by the way, rhymes with “lowers,” not “flowers.”)

Louisville has become a baseball powerhouse, so only the very best of the best get to play as freshmen. Stowers appeared in 20 games and received only 15 plate appearances as a first year player, going 3-for-13 (.231) with two steals. A summer ball stint with the Madison Mallards of the Northwoods League went much better. Stowers hit .311/.373/.400 with three homers in 39 games that summer.

As a sophomore Stowers moved into an everyday role with the Cardinals and put up a .313/.422/.507 batting line with six homers and 22 steals in 65 games. That includes going 4-for-11 (.364) with a double in three College World Series games before Louisville was eliminated. Stowers suited up for the Chatham Anglers of the Cape Cod League that summer and struggled, hitting .250/.337/.345 with two homers and 12 steals in 24 games.

Stowers barely played as a freshman and hit near the bottom of the lineup as a sophomore. As a junior he moved to the top of the order and hit .336/.477/.559 with nine homers, 36 steals, and more walks (52) than strikeouts (37). Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com ranked Stowers as the 124th and 146th best prospect in the 2018 draft class, respectively. Keith Law (subs. req’d) did not rank him among his top 100 draft prospects.

The Mariners selected Stowers with their second round pick, the 54th overall selection, in last June’s draft and signed him to a slightly below-slot $1.1M bonus. (Slot money for the 54th overall pick was $1.2878M.) The Yankees acquired Stowers from Seattle in the three-team Sonny Gray trade with the Reds on January 21st, 2019.

Pro Debut
After signing, the Mariners sent Stowers to their short season affiliate in the Northwest League. (Their equivalent to Short Season Staten Island.) Stowers hit .260/.380/.410 (126 wRC+) with five homers, 20 steals, 15.2% walks, and 23.4% strikeouts in 58 games in his pro debut. Baseball America (subs. req’d) named him the 12th best prospect in the league after the season.

Scouting Report
With a thick lower half and a 6-foot-1, 200-pound frame, Stowers doesn’t look like the prototypical center fielder. He is a well-above-average runner (his speed is his best tool) and his speed serves him well defensively, but his reads and routes need to improve to remain in center long-term. Stowers has a below-average arm, so if he can’t hack it in center field, left field is the only other option. His arm won’t cut it in right.

Offensively, Stowers has the rare pretty right-handed swing. It’s direct to the ball and allows him to spray line drives from pole to pole, but he doesn’t generate much loft, so Stowers only projects to have average power down the road. His plate discipline is razor sharp and he steals bases efficiently and in bulk. The long-term upside here is a good batting average with a high on-base percentage and lots of steals, but something short of 20 homers.

By all accounts Stowers is coachable and a hard worker. The risk here is that he’ll become a ‘tweener, meaning he won’t be good enough defensively to remain in center field or offer the type of offense expected from a corner. The questionable center field defense/okay power potential profile is a tough one, especially for a hitter on the light side of the platoon.

2019 Outlook
Stowers is definitely ready for full season ball after three years at a major college program, two summers in top collegiate leagues, and a strong pro debut in short season ball. I think it’s more likely he’ll start the season with Low-A Charleston and get promoted to High-A Tampa at midseason than start the season in Tampa. If he does start the year in Tampa, Stowers would presumably join Estevan Florial and Pablo Olivares in a fun little outfield unit.

My Take
Everything I know about Stowers is in this post and he hasn’t been in the system long enough for me to form an opinion about him. Consider my take TBD. Because he’s fast and a good athlete, I think Stowers stands a pretty good chance to remain in center field, or at least I think he has a better chance to improve his defense and remain in center than add power. Stowers and Shed Long, the prospect the Yankees acquired from the Reds for Gray then flipped to the Mariners for Stowers, will forever be connected. Comparing the two is unfair — they are at very different points of their careers — but inevitable. My preference would’ve been keeping the upper level infielder. Stowers is a quality prospect in his own right though.

Sonny Gray left the Yankees little choice but to trade him

January 23, 2019 by Mike

After a weekend of rumors and an offseason of waiting, the Yankees finally traded Sonny Gray earlier this week. We all knew it was coming at some point. We just didn’t know when. Gray went to the Reds in a three-team trade with the Mariners. The Yankees walked away with a lower minors prospect and a draft pick, which, honestly, is more than I thought they’d get. The draft pool money is a big deal.

The trade closes the book on Gray’s stint as a Yankee and we now know for certain it was a bust. There’s no chance at redemption now. I liked Gray and was glad when the Yankees added him for the 2017 stretch run, but the trade was a failure. The Yankees acquired Sonny expecting at least a mid-rotation innings guy and hoping for a bona fide No. 2 starter behind Luis Severino. They got a fifth starter. Sometimes worse.

At this point I’m not really interested in exploring why Gray performed the way he did with the Yankees. I’ve written enough about that the last 12 months or so. I don’t think it’s as simple as “he couldn’t handle New York” or “he was a bad match for Yankee Stadium.” I reckon it was a combination of several things, not one specific thing. Whatever it was, the Gray pickup proved to be a failure.

After last season, a season in which Gray had a 4.90 ERA (4.17 FIP) and lost his rotation spot to Lance Lynn and was not even a consideration for the postseason roster, the Yankees had two choices:

Keep him and try to salvage him in 2019.
Cut their losses and trade him.

Personally, I was willing to give No. 1 a try. I’ve been a Sonny Gray fan for a long time now and I wanted it to work with the Yankees, so I was open to bringing him into the new season as a swingman/sixth starter. You know a starter is going to get hurt at some point. That’s baseball. Gray has more upside than pretty much anyone the Yankees could realistically bring in as a sixth starter.

I was willing to give Gray another chance in 2019. What I think doesn’t matter though. The only thing that matters here is how the Yankees feel about Gray and their assessment of his performance going forward, and Brian Cashman made it clear the Yankees do not expect Sonny to improve next year, or at least improve enough to keep his $7.5M salary on the books. I thought this quote was pretty damning. From Joel Sherman (emphasis mine):

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx,” Cashman told me Monday at the GM Meetings. “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results.”

The Yankees tried pretty much everything with Gray last season. They gave him his personal catcher. They tightened up his mechanics. They altered his pitch selection and had him emphasize his sinker and curveball. They changed his role. When Cashman or Aaron Boone or Larry Rothschild were asked about Gray, their response often started with an exhale and a sigh. They were frustrated. Exasperated. Maybe even angry.

Given the way Cashman and the Yankees had been talking about him, it’s clear they did not trust Gray on the mound. How well would Sonny have to perform for you to feel confident when he’s on the mound? How long would he have to perform at that level to earn your trust? I imagine the answer is very good and very long. Longer than the Yankees were willing to commit and maybe longer than possible give his impending free agency.

Once the Yankees determined “(we) don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results” as Cashman said, that was it. They’d reached the point of no return. Gray had become a sunk cost. The Yankees gave up three pretty good prospects to get Sonny* and there was nothing they could do to change that. They could continue to force the issue and try to salvage him, or cut their losses and move on. They moved on.

* Could you imagine how much worse this all would’ve looked had Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, or Jorge Mateo done anything of note for the Athletics? They still could, sure. Right now, that trade is a dud all around. Everyone involved has seen their stock drop.

Everyone deserves some share of the blame here. The Yankees, the coaches and analysts that couldn’t get him on track, and Sonny himself. There was no progress last year. It was one step forward, one step back all season. Every sign of improvement vanished with the next start. Eventually it gets to the point where it’s untenable, and it had become untenable with Gray. At that point, the best thing for both parties is a clean break. Everyone gets a fresh start now.

The Yankees decided to make Gray some other team’s problem. They spent a year (more than that, really) trying to get him right and nothing worked. If he had multiple years of control remaining rather than one, I think the Yankees would’ve kept him. But, with just the one year of control remaining, there wasn’t enough long-term upside to keep working at it. The Yankees had grown obviously frustrated with Gray and if they didn’t believe he could help them this year, a trade was the only choice. It was time to move on, not hope for something that everything on the field told you isn’t going to happen.

Thoughts three weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

January 23, 2019 by Mike

T-minus three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Tampa and begin Spring Training. Pitchers and catchers reporting is the biggest non-news days of the year — pitchers and catchers show up to the complex and take their physicals, and that’s pretty much it — but it is the start of the new season, and that’s exciting. We’re only three weeks away. Anyway, here are some scattered thoughts.

1. I don’t have a whole lot to say following the Hall of Fame announcement. I’m stunned and thrilled Mariano Rivera was a unanimous selection. I didn’t think it would happen. Then again, it is close to impossible to make a case against him, so if anyone was ever going to get in unanimously, it would be Rivera. I suspect we’ll see another unanimous Hall of Famer before long now that the barrier has been broken. I’m also happy Mike Mussina made it into the Hall of Fame and, even though he is responsible for the first time baseball crushed my soul, I’m glad Edgar Martinez got in as well. Man could that dude hit. I don’t think either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens is getting in at this point. They’ve hit a wall the last few years and haven’t gained much support, and they only have three years to go on the ballot. Andy Pettitte getting such little support (9.9%) surprised me. I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer, but I thought he’d get north of 30%. Shows what I know. There aren’t many slam dunk Hall of Famers set to join the ballot in the coming years. Derek Jeter hits the ballot next year, David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez will be eligible in three years, Carlos Beltran in four years, and Adrian Beltre in five years. If Bonds and Clemens don’t get in, A-Rod won’t get in, so at best four potential first ballot Hall of Famers will join the ballot in the next five years. That means that many more voting spots will be available for other players. Curt Schilling, Omar Vizquel, and Larry Walker seem most likely to benefit from that in my opinion, though next year is Walker’s final year on the ballot. We’ll see. As for this year, I’m thrilled Mussina got in and I’m thrilled Rivera was unanimous. Two all-time favorites right there.

2. Given the bullpen, the Yankees should use an opener this coming season. They don’t have to do it every game. Just select games based on matchups. Why not let Dellin Betances face the top of the lineup when you still have Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Adam Ottavino available for the late innings? I wouldn’t bother using an opener with Luis Severino or James Paxton. When they’re on, they can dominate any lineup. Ride those horses. CC Sabathia is an obvious candidate for an opener though. The problem there is he has a very specific and longer than usual warmup routine because of his knee, and I’m not sure it’s something he could do in the bullpen during the first inning rather than on the field before the game. It would take an adjustment to his specialized warmup routine and veteran pitchers hate that. To me, J.A. Happ is the best candidate for an opener. He has some experience pitching in relief, mostly early in his career but it’s more than everyone else in the rotation combined, and it doesn’t seem like there would be any issues with his warmup routine. If the Yankees can use an opener to avoid letting Happ (or Sabathia, if possible) face the top of the lineup one time per start, it’s worth doing. They can use a shutdown reliever against the top of the order in that first inning, use Happ (or Sabathia) two and a half times through the lineup, then go to the bullpen. The reliever is either going to pitch in the first inning or in the later innings. In the first inning, at least the Yankees know they’ll get the matchup they want, and they’ll know the game will (most likely) be close on the scoreboard. The Yankees don’t have to use an opener three times each turn through the rotation like the Rays. Every once in a while will work though. Maybe 25-30 times a season?

3. We are now entering top 100 prospect list season. Baseball America’s top 100 list comes out today and apparently the Yankees will be shut out. That’s weird. Are there really 100 prospects in baseball better than Estevan Florial? A 20-year-old with those tools puts up a .354 OBP and a 110 wRC+ in 75 High-A games around wrist surgery and goes from No. 38 on last year’s top 100 list to unranked this year? Seems like an overreaction, but whatever. To each his own. I suspect the Baseball America list will be the outlier. I expect to see Florial and Jonathan Loaisiga on most top 100 lists this spring. Someone like Anthony Seigler or Deivi Garcia or even Mike King could sneak on to a random top 100 list as well, though I’d bet against it. Florial is a clear top 100 caliber prospect to me. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and command but not top 100 health. The injury history is what prevents him from being a tippy top prospect. Anyway, Baseball America’s top 100 list comes out today and MLB.com’s comes out this weekend. Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus will release their top 100 lists soon as well. I expect to see Florial on all non-Baseball America top 100 lists and Loaisiga on some top 100 lists. After having six or more top 100 prospects the last few years, the Yankees are down to one or maybe two, and that is perfectly fine with me because so many of those former top 100 prospects are now wearing pinstripes and having an impact. That’s the best reason for a farm system to decline in quality.

4. The Yankees have signed five free agents this offseason (Britton, Happ, Ottavino, DJ LeMahieu, Troy Tulowitzki) and none of the five contracts are guaranteed beyond three years. Britton’s deal includes that funky two-year club option/one-year player option, but the Yankees control the fourth year, not Britton. The Yankees did not go beyond three guaranteed years this offseason. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in three years, in December 2021, and it seems to me the Yankees are trying to leave themselves as much roster and payroll flexibility as possible going into the next CBA. Chances are I’m overthinking this. It’s not like other teams are handing out long-term contracts. In the Yankees’ case though, they’re a World Series contender in the game’s largest market, and they’ve already passed on one high-end free agent (Patrick Corbin) and are poised to pass on two others (Manny Machado and Bryce Harper) even though they are such obvious fits for the roster. They didn’t want to give Corbin a sixth year covering his age 35 season and instead opted to sign Happ for his age 36-37 (and possibly 38) seasons. Hmmm. The upcoming CBA could change baseball’s economic system dramatically — I’m not entirely sure that will that happen, but it could — and it seems the Yankees want to make sure they have as much financial freedom going into the new CBA, hence the short-term contracts. I think that was at least part of the reason the Yankees went with the “spread the money around” approach this offseason rather than going for big money deals.

5. The Yankees don’t have much money coming off the books next offseason. It’s Sabathia ($8M) and Brett Gardner ($7.5M), and three guys the Yankees should try to sign long-term in Betances ($7.25M), Didi Gregorius ($11.75M), and Aaron Hicks ($6M). That’s pretty much it unless Chapman opts out. No other large money contracts expire after this season. The Yankees will have to pay or replace Gregorius, Dellin, and Hicks next winter and give Aaron Judge a potentially record-breaking first year arbitration salary. There’s a long way to go between now and then and so much will change. Right now, with so little money coming off the books after the season, it makes me wonder if the Yankees are in for a quiet 2019-20 offseason. Maybe not quiet, but devoid of big money acquisitions. The payroll clears up in two years when LeMahieu, Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, and maybe Happ and Britton come off the payroll. Next offseason the Yankees could be cash-strapped and limited in their spending though. The moves this offseason are as much about 2020 as they are 2019. There might not be much maneuverability next winter.

6. Remember two years ago when the Yankees held that fun Winter Warm-Up event? It was a series of events, really. Players participated in events throughout the city for a week, then there was a big town hall with top prospects. Here’s a recap. By all accounts the Winter Warm-Up was a smashing success. Fans and players alike loved it. Then the Yankees decided to never do it again, apparently. Nothing the last two winters. That is disappointing. It seems pretty clear now the Winter Warm-Up was intended to get fans excited about the future (hence prospects being involved) because the Yankees had missed the postseason three of the previous four seasons, and they didn’t expect to be good in 2017. They called it a “transition” year, remember. They didn’t expect Judge to become an instant MVP candidate and the young players to carry the team to Game Seven of the ALCS. Once that happened, the Yankees apparently determined they no longer need to do any fan outreach because the team being good is enough. Other teams throughout the league are holding caravan events this month and I see it all on social media, and it amazes me the most popular team in the sport does nothing like it. Actions speak louder than words, and the Yankees are making it pretty darn clear fan outreach and cultivating young fans is a secondary concern. Running a caravan event when you’re expecting a down season and then nothing at all when you know you’re good is kinda insulting, no? Fans aren’t important enough for a caravan event when the Yankees are good. Only when the team is expecting a lean year and doesn’t want to lose ticket sales and television ratings. How so very lame.

7. Another thing the Yankees don’t do that I wish they did is play a spring prospects game. I could’ve sworn they played one years ago but I can’t find anything on the ol’ google machine. I think I might be confusing it with the West Point game. Anyway, the idea is the big league Yankees play an exhibition game against their minor leaguers to close out Spring Training rather than a game in Atlanta or Miami or Washington. (They went to SunTrust the last two springs and they’re going Nationals Park this spring). The could play the game right in Tampa, or maybe even go to Scranton or Trenton or Staten Island. Wouldn’t that be fun? The Cardinals will close out their spring schedule with an exhibition game against their Triple-A affiliate in Memphis this year. They’ve been doing that for a while now. The Reds play what they call the Reds Futures Game each spring, which is big leaguers vs. prospects. They play it in a different minor league affiliate ballpark each year. That seems pretty cool, no? Imagine Deivi Garcia vs. Judge, or Florial stealing a hit away from Gleyber Torres in the gap. I don’t know about you, but a spring prospects game sounds awfully fun to me. I am pro-fun and I am trying to come up with ways to make the Yankees more fun. A winter caravan event and a prospects game would be a good start.

Update: I knew I wasn’t crazy. The Yankees did play a spring prospects game in 2010. It was called the Yankees Futures Game. Here’s the box score. There’s some serious prospect nostalgia in there.

8. I was never a huge football fan and these last few years my football fandom has whittled down to nothing. I watched maybe an hour of regular season NFL football this year. I do watch the playoffs though, and wow, Tony Romo is some announcer, huh? He explained what happened (in some cases, he explained what would happen) and why it happened in a way a casual fan like me could understand, and it increased my enjoyment of the game. Also, Romo is genuinely enthusiastic about the sport. It’s a shame it’s gotten to the point where that is noteworthy. So many baseball announcers spend the broadcast complaining about the game and the longing for the old days. John Smoltz in the World Series was as bad as it gets. A fan new to baseball would’ve thought the sport is broken beyond repair given Smoltz’s open contempt for the modern game. Baseball needs more broadcasters like Romo. Someone who loves the modern game and can explain it. I think Yankees fans are pretty lucky with the YES Network broadcast team, honestly. Michael Kay can get annoying when he goes into radio show mode, but it’s obvious he loves the game and his job. David Cone understands analytics and is very good at blending “this is baseball now” with “this was baseball when I played.” Ken Singleton as well. He’s fantastic. I know it’s cool to hate on the local broadcast crew, but believe me, I watch a ton of baseball and the YES Network has a comfortably above-average broadcast team. Lots of other fans are stuck with Smoltz facsimiles. Guys who complain about the game and long for the old days. That is bad for baseball. MLB desperately wants a younger fan base. The good way to develop one is finding broadcasters who love baseball and tell you why the game is great, not why it was better in their day.