Open Thread: World Series Game Four

(Paul Sancya/AP)

See? I told you the offense would pick up once the series shifted to Texas. The Cardinals blew the Rangers out last night in part due to Albert Pujols’ three homers, but that’s in the past and they start again with a clean slate tonight. Derek Holland is charged with keeping his team from the brink of elimination, but he’s allowed ten runs on 18 hits, six walks, and five homers in 13.2 IP across three starts this postseason. His counterpart, Edwin Jackson, hasn’t been any better: eight runs on 16 hits and four homers in 12.1 IP across three starts. More offense? Yes, there will be more offense.

Here’s your open thread for the night. The World Series game starts at 8pm ET and can be seen on FOX, and the late football game is the Colts at the Saints (8:20pm ET on NBS). Talk about anything you want here, go nuts.

Granderson, Colon up for Players Choice Award

MLB announced their finalists for the various Players Choice Awards yesterday, and a pair of Yankees were nominated for a total of three awards. Curtis Granderson is up for both the AL Outstanding Player and the MLB Player of the Year awards while Bartolo Colon is in the mix for AL Comeback Player of the Year. Obviously these are voted on by the players, so I imagine it means a lot to the guys that win. The winners will be announced on Thursday, November 3rd on a MLB Network broadcast from 8-9pm ET. Congrats to both guys for being nominated.

Vazquez off to hot start in winter ball

AzFL Phoenix Desert Dogs (10-9 win over Peoria) Thursday’s game
Rob Segedin, LF: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 BB
Corban Joseph, DH: 0 for 4, 1 R, 1 BB – that’s five walks and four strikeouts in his first 48 PA

AzFL Phoenix Desert Dogs (5-1 loss to Mesa) Friday’s game
Ronnie Mustelier, 3B: 2 for 4
Rob Segedin, LF: 0 for 3
Corban Joseph, 2B: 0 for 3
Preston Claiborne, RHP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1-1 GB/FB – just six of his 13 pitches were strikes (46.2%) …he’s faced 27 batters out here, with four walks and four strikeouts

AzFL Phoenix Desert Dogs (9-4 loss to Scottsdale) Saturday’s game
Rob Segedin, LF: 1 for 4, 1 R
Dan Burawa, RHP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 2-0 GB/FB – just seven of 15 pitches were strikes (46.7%) … 15 baserunners in eight innings
Chase Whitley, RHP: 2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 17 of 25 pitches were strikes (68%) … six strikeouts and one walk in his last four appearances

Dominican Winter League
Abe Almonte, OF: 3 G, 0 for 3
Zoilo Almonte, OF: 2 G, 2 for 6, 3 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB (.333/.500/.333)
Melky Mesa, OF: 3 G, 0 for 0, 1 R, 1 SB – pinch-ran off the bench
Hector Noesi, RHP: 1 G, 1 GS, 1.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 0 BB,1 K (6.75 ERA, 3.75 WHIP) – he’s made just the one start so far

Mexican Pacific League
Walt Ibarra, IF: 2 G, 0 for 6, 3 K
Jorge Vazquez, 1B/3B: 10 G, 13 for 39, 8 R, 1 2B, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 4 BB, 10 K (.333/.395/.744) – he always kills this league
Pat Venditte, SwP: 6 G, 10.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 2 HB (2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP)

Venezuelan Winter League
Jose Gil, C/1B: 5 G, 5 for 18, 4 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 BB (.278/.350/.333)
Luis Nunez, IF: 8 G, 10 for 26, 5 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 SB, 1 CS (.385/.433/.615)
Jose Pirela, IF: 9 G, 16 for 37, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K (.432/.462/.514)
Josh Schmidt, RHP: 1 G, 1 GS, 4.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (1.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

The Puerto Rico League season doesn’t start until November 4th, and none of the rosters are online yet. We’ll know if anyone is playing there soon enough.

Oppenheimer has “most buzz” for Angels’ GM job

Via Frankie Piliere, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer currently has the “most buzz” among candidates for the Angels’ vacant GM job. The Yankees gave both of their scouting directors, Oppenheimer (amateur) and Billy Epplier (pro), permission to interview for the position last week. I assume “most buzz” means he’s seen as the most likely candidate at the moment.

Halos’ owner Arte Moreno and president John Carpino were seen dining with Rays VP of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman recently, and Tampa’s acting GM is reportedly the top name on their list. Friedman apparently has some kind of ownership stake in the Rays’ franchise, so leaving for the Angels might not be so simple. Anyway, I have no idea who would replace Oppenheimer should he get the job, but I suspect the Yankees would promote from within. I hope he sticks around though, for selfish reasons.

Open Thread: World Series Game Thread

Alrighty then. (Doug Pensinger/Getty)

It’s a best-of-five World Series now, and the next three games are in Texas. Elias says that of the 53 World Series that have been tied at a game apiece, the winner of Game Three has won the title 37 times (69.8%). The Rangers are running Matt Harrison out there for the first time in ten days while the Cardinals counter with Kyle Lohse. His last start was nine days ago. I expect there to be more offense with the ballpark switch (and suckier pitchers), but I hope it’s another tight game like the first two.

Here’s your open thread for the night, which you can use to talk about the World Series or anything else on your mind. All three hockey locals are in action as well. You folks know what to do by now, so have at it.

The Day After

Blowout Incoming....

Personally, a good blowout always gave me confidence. When you look at a team that absolutely goes to town on another team, it brings to mind the messiest intangible: momentum. In a sport where play goes uninterrupted during a game, like hockey or basketball, momentum makes a little more sense. But in baseball, pauses are routine, and what we may think of as momentum still has a lots of empty space. Even in a quicker sport, it’s hard to think momentum might work when a day goes by in between one game and the next.

When the Yankees gave the Tigers a proper whooping in game 4, there was a good feeling: the bats were alive. The hitters had their eyes on the ball. AJ Burnett had actually pitched a pretty decent game against a relatively decent lineup! The bullpen had done pretty well! How could anything go wrong? But then, a small part of me crept into my brain, thinking about a blowout the Yankees had given to Oakland, where they’d hit a record three grand slams. The next day was a seven-run loss to Baltimore. This got me thinking: was there a hangover effect involved in these blowout games? The Yankees have always been a heavy-slugging team, but maybe their collective arms (and bats) got tired after all those runs in one night. As I’d feared, the Yankees’ bats got quiet, and then went without much of a run-related peep into the dark night of the offseason.

For this experiment, we’ll assume that a “blowout” entails winning by 7+ runs. I’m using 7+ as my measure over Baseball Reference’s 5+, just because I feel like saying the Yankees blow the team out almost 20% of the time is a little absurd. I’ll ratchet up the amount of runs needed for a blowout to see if there is a certain amount of good pitching and hitting that makes a team tired for the next day. If you don’t like it, feel free to talk about how much you hate me in the comments.

Anyway, by the 7+ measure, the Yankees had 17 blowouts, the biggest being the Grand Slamorama against the A’s (22-9) and the smallest being an August game against Minnesota (8-1). After a blowout, the Yankees went 11-6, which says that even when the Yankees weren’t scoring a lot of runs, the pitchers were at least helping out. In the blowout games, the Yankees banged out 216 runs (average of 12.7 R/G), but in the game-afters, they only managed 84. I don’t think this is because they were tired, actually, but rather that it’s just really hard to score a lot of runs, even against a crappy team. The Yankees only managed to score 10+ runs in back-to-back games once, and both were blowouts. It was against the (sigh) AL Champion Texas Rangers on June 14th and 15th. Curiously enough, 84 runs over 17 games is about 4.8 runs/game, and Yankees averaged about 5.4 runs/game, and Yankees averaged about 5.5 runs/game over the 162 game season, so it is a little under, but not by much. On the hitting side, over an 162 game season, the Yankees had a 3.63 ERA (which is good for fourth in the AL, by the way). During blowouts, the pitching staff’s ERA actually went down (3.23), so there wasn’t any pitching to the score going on, at least in this sample. The hangover-over blowout effect looks just like another great example of confirmation bias and selective memory. We remember unusual events even if they’re uncommon, like blowing a team out and losing the next day, which the Yankees only did six times in an 162 game season.

Let’s bump it up. Let’s say it that you have to score 8 runs to have a blowout. In this case, the Yankees only had eleven blowouts. They scored 159 runs over these 11 games, bumping their average R/G up to 14.4 (!). After blowouts of 8 R+, they went 7-4, an almost identical win percentage to 7+. The Yankees pitching picked up a 3.81 ERA (all the runs were earned), slightly higher than their season norm. We’ll bump it up just one more, to 9+ runs equaling a blowout. This lowers the sample to seven games, and the Yankees scored 114 runs and averaged 16.2 runs per game, which is pretty awesome (even if it’s only a seven game sample). The pitching staff held opponents with a 4.71 ERA, which is significantly higher. Although you could argue there’s a pitching-to-the-score argument here with these two consecutive raises, I don’t think it’s that the score caused the bad pitching, I think it’s because you have to score a lot of runs to have that high an ERA and still lose. In other words, the bad score doesn’t cause the pitching, but the massive offense causes the bad pitching to be included in the winning numbers.

To keep the sample marginally sized, we’ll return to blowout = 7+ and throw down some more stats from that. The Yankees had all 17 of their 7+ run blowouts verses 10 teams, six of which were under .500 (MIN, SEA, CWS, BAL, OAK, and CLE). The Indians, Mariners, Twins and Rays were blown out by only 7 runs and were all blown out once. Not surprisingly, they had the most blowouts verses Baltimore (4) and (amusingly) the second-most vs Texas (3). The Yankees also blew out 3 other playoff teams (TBR, MIL, & TEX), and, to put the icing on the cake, Boston.

In conclusion, the Yankees score a lot of runs. I think we had a really good offensive club here, guys.